← Scoreboard

Raw data

Everything behind the board — citation-first and free. 232 people, 1600 predictions, as of 2026-07-01.

predictions.csv
One row per prediction: claim, type, threshold, deadline, made-on, status, specificity, horizon, citation URL, source, confidence.
leaderboard.csv
The ranked board: flat + diff-adjusted scores, ✓/✗/◐ counts, resolved count, tier, per person.
api.json
The full projection: every person and every prediction with its resolution, basis, specificity, and citation.

Outcomes resolve against a daily Bitcoin price oracle. See sources & methodology for how it’s built and scored.