{ "as_of": "2026-07-01", "latest_close": 60314.92, "generated_from": "influencers/*.json + data/btc-price-daily.json", "people": [ { "id": "adam-back", "name": "Adam Back", "handles": { "x": "@adam3us", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "blockstream.com" }, "category": [ "cypherpunk", "developer", "ceo", "ogbitcoiner" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 885000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitterscore.io/twitter/adam3us/" }, "score": 5.6, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 21, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 9, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 8, "partial": 1, "pending": 4 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bet that Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $100k between Aug 2023 and the next halving (deadline 31 Mar 2024). Wagered one million satoshis against @Vikingobbitcoin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2024-03-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-08-07", "specificity": 68, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coinspeaker.com/blockstream-adam-back-bitcoin-100k/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "the bet is onπŸš€: i bet #bitcoin reaches or exceeds $100k between now and halving (31st Mar 2024)", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $73,836 through the 2024-03-31 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Digital gold Bitcoin will flip physical gold's market cap sooner or later, and probably this halving cycle (i.e. within a year or two), implying ~$1M/coin.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-12-04", "specificity": 14, "citation": { "url": "https://crypto.news/blockstreams-adam-back-bets-bitcoin-could-reach-1m-after-2024-halving/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "digital gold #bitcoin will surely flip physical gold sooner or later; and probably this halving cycle. so within a year or two.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "By the 2025-12-31 deadline BTC peaked at $126,296 β€” nowhere near the ~$1M/coin needed to flip gold; window elapsed without the flip." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin price is too low; he expects it to hit $500,000 to $1 million during this (four-year) cycle, which 'stretches out a few years'.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2025-05-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://decrypt.co/319833/bitcoin-price-too-low-should-hit-500k-1m-this-cycle-adam-back", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "I'm thinking this cycle could get quite high, but the cycle stretches out a few years, right? So I was thinking $500,000 to $1 million, because there's a lot going on.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-05-14); 2027-11-14 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Asked on a Bitcoin 2025 conference panel where Bitcoin's price will be five years from now, Back answered 'a million easy' (~$1M by ~2030).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2030-05-28", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-28", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/adam-back-said-its-still-early-for-the-retail-investors-to-buy-bitcoin", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "a million easy", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-05-28); 2030-05-28 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin's total market capitalization eventually equals gold's global market value, the implied price could approach $1.5 million per coin (digital-gold parity thesis).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-03-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2026/03/06/blockstream-ceo-adam-back-predicts-bitcoin-at-1-5-million-if-it-achieves-gold-level-valuation/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If Bitcoin's total market capitalization eventually equals gold's global market value, Back suggested, the implied price could approach $1.5 million per coin.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-06); 2031-03-06 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Flagged Bitcoin's rising 200-week moving average crossing $61k as evidence/confirmation of a structural bull market (with the 200wma acting as a long-term support floor).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-30", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://yellow.com/news/adam-back-bitcoin-61k-floor-beat-sp-500", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Adam Back flagged Bitcoin's 200-week moving average crossing $61,000 as 'evidence of a structural bull market'... noted the cross on May 30, identifying this level as a support floor based on historical precedent.", "timestamp": "2026-05-30", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "The claimed $61k 200wma support floor failed β€” BTC dropped from $73,771 to $58,000 (current $58,161), breaking below the level he called a structural-bull floor." }, { "claim_text": "Reacting to a -21% pullback from the $126.1k ATH, Back framed it as a routine bull-market dip ('prior bull markets had a dozen 30%-35% drops'), urging 'Zoom out... Buy and Hodl' β€” i.e. a bull-market-continuation call.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-05", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/adam3us/status/1986112102063313093", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Message from the Bitcoin permabulls πŸ‚ $126.1k ATH vs recent local dip was -21%. Zoom out! prior bull markets had a dozen 30% - 35% drops. Now at -17.7% from ATH already 4.7% up in 18 hrs. Zoom out, and then zoom out some more. Buy and Hodl.", "timestamp": "2025-11-05T16:43:19.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Buy-and-hodl continuation call at $103,869 (Nov 2025); BTC managed only $107,482 then collapsed to $58,161 (-44%), far beyond a routine bull-market dip." }, { "claim_text": "Endorsed a 'this cycle is different' thesis that the four-year cycle is broken: with the bubble-detection metric flat, Bitcoin 'just keeps grinding higher without [a] bear market, and smaller pullbacks than prior cycles'.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-16", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/adam3us/status/1990151345647874181", "source_type": "x", "quote": "model arguing the 4-year cycle is different this time, bubble detection metric is flat this time. so thesis: bitcoin just keeps grinding higher with out bear market, and smaller pullbacks than prior cycles.", "timestamp": "2025-11-16T20:13:50.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Made at $94,184 claiming no bear market and smaller pullbacks; BTC then fell to $58,000 (-38%, current $58,161), a bear-style drawdown larger than prior cycles." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin at roughly the $100,000 mark is cheap/undervalued given prior cycle highs, post-halving ETF and corporate absorption, and money printing since the last all-time high - implying it should trade meaningfully higher.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-27", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/rc7UKtHS9l3Zw2aXaYkD/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "So, I mean, I genuinely think like the 100,000-ish mark is cheap because, you know, we had 69,000 in the previous cycle and then that second all-time high, 74.5. That was a long time ago and there's been a lot of money printing since then. So 100, it's not that high.", "timestamp": "0:17:42", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "From $108,978 BTC did rise meaningfully to $126,296 (+15%) validating 'should trade higher', but then collapsed to $58,161, well below the level he called cheap." }, { "claim_text": "Adam Back predicts Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2028.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2028", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Can-Bitcoin-Hit-1-Million---Anthony-Pompliano-e3j7h97", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Adam says that Bitcoin is going to a million dollars by 2028. Take a listen to Adam's logic here. You know, ultimately, people could only sell once. So, you know, the people that have sold and the number of coins that are left on exchange is diminishing.", "timestamp": "0:04:09", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,379 since 2026-05-11); 2028-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could reach $100,000 or more before the halving as it gets back on track with previous cycle trajectories.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2024-04-20", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-11-04", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/Entering-a-new-Bitcoin-bull-cycle-with-Adam-Back-SLP523-e2bfovd", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "my thought is that if some of that can fade and get cleared out, we could get to 100,000 or more before the halving either, even, and just get back on track of where Bitcoin might have been if you look at, you know, previous cycles", "timestamp": "0:11:30", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $73,836 through the 2024-04-20 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will flip gold's market cap within the next halving cycle, framed as a variable price target since capital flight from gold to bitcoin could move both prices.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-12-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/adam3us/status/1731642801622843853", "source_type": "x", "quote": "My call is #Bitcoin should flip gold's market cap within the next halving cycle. So it's a variable price target as it might start to drive capital flight from physical gold to digital gold, pulling down the price of gold. Timing of \"probably within next few years\" is secondary.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC peaked at $126,296, never approaching gold's market cap (~$1M/coin); a 17x move by the 2026 deadline from $58,161 is unattainable, so the flip did not occur." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will flip gold's market cap within the next halving cycle (within a year or two from December 2023), implying a price around $700k/BTC.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 700000, "deadline": "2025", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-12-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/adam3us/status/1731463823142326676", "source_type": "x", "quote": "digital gold #bitcoin will surely flip physical gold sooner or later; and probably this halving cycle. so within a year or two. currently it'd take $700k/BTC but it maybe partially a substitute (some people start selling gold to buy #bitcoin crossing the market caps below that).", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $700,000." } ] }, { "id": "adam-livingston", "name": "Adam Livingston", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is close to a bottom, though it could potentially drop to around $50k before the premium stops contracting.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-24", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/CzqaovsjirlcNCZJECKw/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "that would be my number one by far because the stock is still trading at a 15 to 20 true premium and i think that bitcoin is close to a bottom i could be wrong maybe it goes down to 50k or", "timestamp": "0:24:19", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Speaker (MSTR shareholder voice, the guest Adam) calls a near-term bottom with downside risk to ~$50k. As of 2026-06-20 the 2026 drawdown low is $59,073 (2026-06-05) and BTC is ~$63,556 β€” $50k not touched and the bottom is not yet confirmed, so unresolved." } ] }, { "id": "aleks-svetski", "name": "Aleks Svetski", "handles": { "x": "@SvetskiWrites", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://svetski.medium.com/" }, "category": [ "author", "commentator", "entrepreneur", "philosopher" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 32600, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/SvetskiWrites" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [] }, { "id": "alex-becker", "name": "Alex Becker", "handles": { "x": "@ZssBecker", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "entrepreneur", "youtuber", "crypto-influencer" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 1300000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://www.newsbtc.com/news/why-bitcoin-wont-stop-at-150k-expert-targets-250k-400k/" }, "score": 10, "score_adj": 25, "avg_specificity": 10, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 5, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 4, "partial": 1, "pending": 9 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "A $150k target for Bitcoin this cycle is far too low; if BTC reaches $150k there is only more reason for it to run to $250k-$400k this cycle.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2025-01-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsbtc.com/news/why-bitcoin-wont-stop-at-150k-expert-targets-250k-400k/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Everyone and their dog thinks we are entering the final BIG leg of the cycle towards a $150kish BTC. Call me crazy, but I think we are calling this way to low and way to short.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-01-16); 2027-07-16 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "After the October 2025 crash (BTC ~$102k), there is a very high chance this is the start of the bull market, and selling now would be a mistake.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-12", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:7e1cc3c6b094b:0-very-high-chance-this-is-the-start-of-the-crypto-bull-market-trader/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I think there's a very high chance this is the start of the bull market ... I think selling right now could be the stupidest thing you could ever do.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called start of bull market at $115,068 (Oct 2025); BTC only reached $116,410 then fell to $58,000 (current $58,161, -50%) β€” the opposite of a bull start." }, { "claim_text": "Current crypto prices are likely the generational bottom.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-26", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/ZssBecker/status/2070473382710145475", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Based on how much I absolutely fucking loathe crypto right now...\n\nThis is likely the generational bottom.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Generational-bottom call made 2026-06-26 at $60,003; only 4 days elapsed, current $58,161 β€” outcome undetermined within an as-yet-unelapsed window." }, { "claim_text": "Buying Bitcoin sub-$60k has a high chance of going down in legend as a great entry.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-06-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/ZssBecker/status/2063186238761238985", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Crypto has come back from worse than this.\n\nThere's a high chance buys anywhere sub $60k BTC and $1,800 ETH will go down in legend.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-06-06..2026-07-01] β€” a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is incoming to $250k.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-05-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/ZssBecker/status/2051654521764422012", "source_type": "x", "quote": "As I read X it seems like everyone. Even long time influencers and names, are rooting for it to fail.\n\nThis isn't going to age well for them. Not one bit. \n\nMilk baking in the sun. 250k BTC incoming.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-05-05); 2027-02-05 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The biggest risk is missing Bitcoin's eventual run to $250k.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-04-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/ZssBecker/status/2042967004835917869", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The biggest risk here isn't another leg down.\n\nThe biggest risk is not being positioned when Bitcoin eventually runs to $250k.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-11); 2031-04-11 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is obviously going to $200k or more this year (2026).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-21", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/ZssBecker/status/2025200919214797195", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I mean it's obvious Bitcoin is going to $200k+ this year at this point.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-02-21); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin can realistically reach $250k and ETH $10k this year (2026).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-19", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/ZssBecker/status/2024566696732774608", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Many seem to be forgetting the crypto industry perfectly realistically capable of u-turning to put up a $250k bitcoin and $10k eth THIS year.\n\nWe've done far crazier shit in the past.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-02-19); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is coming back to $250k.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-02-25", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/ZssBecker/status/2026700637627465798", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I read more post stating crypto was never coming back yesterday than ever before.\n\nIt couldn't be more obvious what's about to happen next\n\nHint : it's coming back $250k", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-02-25); 2026-11-25 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The crypto bottom is in and the most hated rally has begun.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/ZssBecker/status/2029171813171769675", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Dear crypto Bears. It's time to get a costco card.\n\nBecause your gonna need a a pallet of lube for what's about to happen to your pressed hams.\n\nResist all you want. The most hated rally has begun.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bottom-is-in / rally-begun call at $72,683 (Mar 2026); BTC managed $82,814 then fell to $58,000 (current $58,161), well below the call β€” bottom was not in." }, { "claim_text": "The bottom is in for crypto.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-05", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/ZssBecker/status/2019542789571174595", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The bottom is in.\n\nI stake absolutely nothing on it but a stern commitment to financial suicide with you if wrong.\n\nAn honor to join you in front of the firing squad dear comrade.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bottom-is-in call at $62,791 (Feb 2026); BTC rallied to $82,814 but then dropped to $58,000 (current $58,161), below the called bottom β€” bottom was not in." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will break above $100k soon.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-01-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/ZssBecker/status/2012311877682954672", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I'll make videos again when we break 100k.\n\nWhich will be soon.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $95,830 since 2026-01-16); 2026-10-16 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will never trade below $100k again.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2025-11-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/ZssBecker/status/1989124318874488918", "source_type": "x", "quote": "….\n\n…..\n\n….never below 100k EVER again. \n\nHope you bought the dip you dumb slut!", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-11-14..2026-07-01], below the $100,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach roughly $300k (at 1/4 of gold's market cap) and is not stopping at $125k.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 300000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2025-10-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/ZssBecker/status/1975999213566558437", "source_type": "x", "quote": "When Bitcoin gets to JUST 1/4th the market cap of gold it will be around $300k for a Bitcoin.\n\nIf you think we are stopping at $125k you are not only unreasonable...you are also retarded. Learn math.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $124,254 since 2025-10-08); 2027-10-08 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "alex-gladstein", "name": "Alex Gladstein", "handles": { "x": "@gladstein", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://alexgladstein.org" }, "category": [ "human-rights-advocate", "author", "bitcoin-educator" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 262900, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/gladstein" }, "score": 100, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Over time the dollar will weaken and Bitcoin will get stronger (rise in value).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-06-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://assets.podhome.fm/677e5bd6-598f-4522-1134-08dbdac63cde/transcript_f4293920-6424-4998-a4a5-a2584e412b8d638463030388951564.html", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "you have to know that fees are gonna get like, the dollar is gonna get weaker. Bitcoin's gonna get stronger.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Long-term 'Bitcoin gets stronger' call from $35,904 (Jun 2021); BTC reached $126,296 and remains higher at $58,161 nearly 5 years later β€” meaningfully up over the long horizon." } ] }, { "id": "alex-thorn", "name": "Alex Thorn", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 75, "score_adj": 85.7, "avg_specificity": 42, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 0, "partial": 1, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Strong case that the February 5th capitulation candle to ~$60k flat is the cycle bottom; could drift a bit lower but $60k likely marks the low this time.", "claim_type": "price_floor", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/sHdhavqYUrAS1ux4iebY/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "But I think there's a pretty strong case that that is the bottom. One, the February 5th was an absolute carnage capitulation day... let's say we fast forward a year from now and it turns out that February 5th, like candle to 60K flat, turns out to have been the bottom.", "timestamp": "0:19:14", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-02-27..2026-07-01] β€” a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Strong conviction that Bitcoin will be higher in some small number of years (long-term bullish), while explicitly declining to predict a year-end price.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-27", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/sHdhavqYUrAS1ux4iebY/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "But I do believe with strong conviction that Bitcoin will be higher in some small number of years.", "timestamp": "0:18:03", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Long-term 'higher in some small number of years' call made Feb 2026 at $65,860; only ~4 months elapsed (current $58,161), so the multi-year window is still open." }, { "claim_text": "Alex Thorn says the picture looks pretty good for Bitcoin price over the next six to nine months, driven by ETF approval catalyst, the April halving, and potentially softening rates.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2024-08-10", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-11-10", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD734_-_Alex_Thorn.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think the picture looks pretty good for Bitcoin price over the next, you know, six to nine months for sure. Heading into an election.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bullish 6-9 month call: BTC rallied from $37,325 to $73,836 by the 2024-08-10 deadline (~+98%)." } ] }, { "id": "altcoin-daily", "name": "Altcoin Daily", "handles": { "x": "@AltcoinDailyio", "nostr": null, "youtube": "Altcoin Daily", "web": null }, "category": [ "youtuber", "commentator", "news" ], "followers": { "platform": "youtube", "count": 1660000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://blockchain.news/flashnews/altcoin-daily-reaches-1-66-million-youtube-subscribers-social-metric-update-with-no-direct-trading-signal" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "In a 'this cycle' bull-case framing, Aaron Arnold treated Bitcoin rallying to $150,000 as a plausible scenario (used as the input for an XRP-over-$5 projection by 2026). Framed conditionally ('if Bitcoin rallies to $150,000'), not as a hard committed BTC target.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-25", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/08/25/heres-what-1000-xrp-could-be-worth-by-2026-altcoin-daily-founder/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If Bitcoin rallies to $150,000, XRP could surpass $5, turning 1,000 XRP into $5,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "low", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-08-25); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Aaron Arnold floated Bitcoin climbing to $250,000 as a higher 'this cycle' scenario (used as the input for an XRP-to-$9 projection by 2026). Framed conditionally ('if Bitcoin climbs to $250,000'), not a hard committed BTC target.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-25", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/08/25/heres-what-1000-xrp-could-be-worth-by-2026-altcoin-daily-founder/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If Bitcoin climbs to $250,000, XRP might reach $9, making 1,000 tokens worth $9,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "low", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-08-25); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "american-hodl", "name": "American HODL", "handles": { "x": "@americanhodl8", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "commentator", "perma-bull", "podcaster", "thesis-narrative" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 94900, "as_of": "2026-06-24", "source": "https://twitterscore.io/twitter/americanhodl8/" }, "score": 25, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 16, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 6, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 4, "partial": 1, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "The real story of this period is 'the shattering of the four year cycle' β€” whether business-cycle or halving-cycle, 'we need to cast that into the trash bin of history'; adds 'this really doesn't feel like a bull market to me in any meaningful sense.'", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-21", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-fundamentals/bitcoin-mastermind-q3-2025-joe-carlasare-jeff-ross-and-american-hodl/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "The real story is the shattering of the four year cycle, whether it's business cycle related or having cycle that thing, we need to cast that into the trash bin of history. ... This really doesn't feel like a bull market to me in any meaningful sense.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "\"Doesn't feel like a bull market\" sentiment was borne out as BTC fell from $108,362 to $58,000 (~-46%), but \"four-year cycle shattered\" is a thesis framing not cleanly resolvable." }, { "claim_text": "On the record predicting Bitcoin will make a new all-time high (one or several) in 2026, but that the highs will be 'kind of underwhelming' β€” e.g. an all-time high to ~$140K.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 140000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-13", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-fundamentals/bitcoin-mastermind-q1-2026-w-jeff-ross-joe-carlasare-and-american-hodl/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think I don't have a problem going our record and saying, I think we will see an all-time high this year. Or several all-time highs, but I'm also kind of of the opinion that they're going to be kind of underwhelming. So, you know, an all-time high to one 40.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "2026 new-ATH-to-~$140K call: window open to 2026-12-31; high so far only $97,964, still below prior ATH ~$126,296." }, { "claim_text": "American HODL believes a Bitcoin bull market will last all throughout 2025.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-18", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC5555512122.mp3?updated=1749010181", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think like we're at the start of a bull market that's going to last all throughout 2025.", "timestamp": "0:03:30", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bull market through 2025: BTC made a new ATH of $126,296 in 2025 and held above entry ($100,151) for much of the year (low by deadline $74,421)." }, { "claim_text": "American HODL expects heavy selling resistance in the $150K-$225K range before a parabolic move in Q4 2025.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC5555512122.mp3?updated=1749010181", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "there's going to be a lot of selling in the like, let's say between 150 to 225 range in there. And so that'll be a hard range to get through. But once we break through it, we're going to break through it with force.", "timestamp": "0:03:41", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$150K-$225K selling zone before a Q4-2025 parabolic break never reached β€” BTC topped at $126,296 and the Q4-2025 window elapsed without touching the band." }, { "claim_text": "American HODL predicts Bitcoin will go parabolic in Q4 2025 (September-December), reaching shocking prices.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC5555512122.mp3?updated=1749010181", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think the back half of the year, probably, I don't know, September, October, November, December. So basically a year from now is going to be just parabolic, hyperbolic in nature. I mean, we're going to see some really crazy and shocking Bitcoin prices.", "timestamp": "0:03:54", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "No parabolic/hyperbolic Q4-2025 blow-off: high by 2025-12-31 was $126,296 (~+26% from $100,151), then BTC crashed to $58,000." }, { "claim_text": "American HODL is very confident Bitcoin will exceed $300,000 by end of 2021.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 300000, "deadline": "2021", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-08-20", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD388_-_American_HODL__Jason_Williams.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I'm very confident that we're going to be over 300 K by the end of the year. I mean, this train has no brakes people. It has no brakes.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $300,000." }, { "claim_text": "American HODL asserts Bitcoin will either stay at ~$30K or go above $300K β€” no middle ground around $150K.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 300000, "deadline": "2021", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-08-20", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD388_-_American_HODL__Jason_Williams.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "It's either we're going to stay at 30K and we're all going to be desperately wrong or we're going to 300 plus. Like there is no in between 150. What is this mushy middle? Bitcoin doesn't do like compromises and middle grounds.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "\"Either ~$30K or $300K+, no mushy middle\": BTC ended 2021 in the middle (high $69,000, low $39,600), exactly the outcome he ruled out." } ] }, { "id": "amy-nixon", "name": "Amy Nixon", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is a strong contender to be the asset that costs about $60,000 today and is worth a million dollars by 2040.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2040", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-07-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/amy-nixon-real-estate-rental-market-outlook-and-why-investors-are-turning-to-bitcoin", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "what thing that exists today that costs $60,000 might be worth a million dollars in 2040. And I think Bitcoin is certainly a contender. When you look at its chart history, you look how it's performed.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-07-02); 2040-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "andy-edstrom", "name": "Andy Edstrom", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 83.3, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 3, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 0, "partial": 1, "pending": 3 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin price target of $400K by 2029, unchanged from his 2019 'Why Buy Bitcoin' 10-year target.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 400000, "deadline": "2029-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-17", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/gQmJU69EU9k94N1oGVDl/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And haven't changed the target. 400 by 2029 seems totally reasonable.", "timestamp": "0:01:44", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-02-17); 2029-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is currently in a bear market and remains in one; bear markets are about both price and time, and not enough time has passed yet.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-17", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/gQmJU69EU9k94N1oGVDl/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I'm still of the mind that it is a bear market. Bear markets are about both price and time. So we've had quite a bit of pain on price.", "timestamp": "0:00:12", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "\"Still a bear market\" call validated: BTC fell from $67,467 to $58,161 (~-14%) with weakness since 2026-02-17." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is still in a bull market and there are likely further price gains to come.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-09-23", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/Bitcoin-On-the-Way-to-400K--with-Andy-Edstrom-SLP605-e2ooitp", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "it seems like we're still in a bull market. That's my expectation, despite the fact that price has kind of gone nowhere for six or seven months or so. And yeah, I'm still quite bullish for Bitcoin in the long term. I'm bullish in the medium term... there are likely gains to come in the price of Bitcoin.", "timestamp": "0:03:20", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "\"Still a bull market, gains to come\": BTC rose from $63,339 to a high of $126,296 (~+99%) after the call." }, { "claim_text": "Andy Edstrom reaffirms his ~2019 price target of $400K per Bitcoin (8 trillion network value) within a 10-year window ending around 2029.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 400000, "deadline": "2029", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-10", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC2433880520.mp3?updated=1765304017", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "the 10-year price target was 8 trillion of network value, which would be about 400K per coin...And how's it gone? Well, that was six years ago and it's gone 10X, right? And which leaves another 5X for the next four years. I still kind of like that price target.", "timestamp": "0:39:28", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-12-10); 2029-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Andy Edstrom believes Bitcoin price is sniffing out coming monetary expansion and will rise as central banks resort to more stimulus and money printing.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-14", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC8765030487.mp3?updated=1753848632", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "my sense is that Bitcoin price is sniffing out what's coming. Yeah. Which is more cowbell, more stimulus, more printing", "timestamp": "0:08:04", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "\"Will rise on stimulus\": BTC rose to $126,296 (+22%) from $103,545 but then reversed to $58,161 (~-44% below entry) β€” mixed/net negative." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will decouple from risk assets and become a safe haven within roughly a decade, at which point risk-off events will actually push Bitcoin's price up.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2031", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-09-26", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD402_-_Greg_Foss__Andy_Edstrom.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Will there be a decoupling? And when risk off happens in traditional financial markets, you actually see Bitcoin increase in value. I truly believe that will be the case. I could be wrong. And I don't know the time period of which it'll happen. But 10 years seems like a good, you know, sort of timeframe for me.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Safe-haven decoupling \"within ~10 years\": deadline 2031 is still open." } ] }, { "id": "anthony-pompliano", "name": "Anthony Pompliano", "handles": { "x": "@APompliano", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.anthonypompliano.com/" }, "category": [ "investor", "podcaster", "bitcoin-treasury-executive" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 2000000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/APompliano" }, "score": 47.1, "score_adj": 77.9, "avg_specificity": 19, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 17, "counts": { "correct": 7, "wrong": 8, "partial": 2, "pending": 9 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could reach between $100,000 and $200,000 over the next 12 to 18 months, driven by supply-demand dynamics and the halving; going back to its all-time high is 'pretty much guaranteed'.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2026-05-12", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-12", "specificity": 70, "citation": { "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/11/41916359/bitcoin-is-the-decentralized-king-says-anthony-pompliano-whose-100000-price-prediction-is-close-to-coming-true", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If this continues, that we have 12.5 times more demand… this thing's going back to its all-time high. It's pretty much guaranteed. He recently suggested Bitcoin could reach between $100,000 and $200,000 in the next 12 to 18 months.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2024-11-12..2026-05-12], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could soon reach $138,000 (CNBC interview), citing historical patterns where BTC roughly doubles within ~18 days after exceeding its prior peak.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 138000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2024-03-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560603925655", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin's value has doubled in 18 days or less after three-quarters of it exceeded its previous peak price. … Pompliano suggested Bitcoin could soon reach $138,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $104,000 through the 2024-12-09 horizon; never reached $138,000." }, { "claim_text": "Stocks and bitcoin will likely be at all-time highs again before the end of the year (2025); all this noise will quickly be forgotten.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-04-03", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/bitcoin-to-hit-all-time-high-in-2025-predicts-anthony-pompliano", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Stocks and bitcoin will likely be at all-time highs again before the end of the year. All this noise will quickly be forgotten.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC at all-time highs before end of 2025: rallied from $83,174 to a new ATH of $126,296 by the 2025-12-31 deadline." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin should 'come back alive again' starting in September; $112k-$113k is pretty oversold. Late-summer corrections often precede rebounds into Q3/Q4 (textbook bull-market behavior). Rejected $400k-$500k this cycle.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-21", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-come-back-alive-again-003156010.html", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "Starting in September, we should see Bitcoin kind of come back alive again. … $113,000 is pretty oversold.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted Bitcoin comes alive starting September; from $112,480 it rallied to a new ATH of $126,296 by deadline, and rejected $400k-$500k this cycle (never came close). Both legs validated within the 2025-12-31 window." }, { "claim_text": "After a weak end to 2025, Bitcoin's volatility has compressed so much that a 70% or 80% drawdown in 2026 would be very surprising; the lack of a year-end blowoff top may prevent a Q1 2026 crash.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-23", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-weak-end-2025-doesn-104155080.html", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "Given where the volatility is right now, it would be very surprising that Bitcoin's volatility has drastically compressed and yet still could get a 70% or 80% drawdown. … We didn't get a blowoff top that I think people expected at the end of Q3, or beginning of Q4, but we haven't seen the big 80% drawdown that people normally expect as well.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a 70-80% drawdown in 2026 would be 'very surprising', but BTC fell from the $126,296 ATH to $58,000 low (~54% drawdown) and price is $58,161 as of 2026-06-30 β€” a large drawdown materialized within the window, against the thesis of compressed volatility." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will likely 'grind rather than explode' from here β€” potentially climbing back toward $100,000-$120,000 over several months or consolidating in the $80,000-$90,000 range, assuming the ~40% drawdown floor holds.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-23", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/12/49569094/bitcoins-150000-dreams-are-dead-says-anthony-pompliano-but-so-are-80-drawdowns", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin will 'grind rather than explode,' potentially climbing back toward $100,000-$120,000 over several months or consolidating in the $80,000-$90,000 range, assuming the 40% drawdown floor holds. Bitcoin's historical 70-80% drawdowns came with explosive upside; with volatility now halved, no more blowoff tops, but also no more catastrophic crashes.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a grind toward $100k-$120k or consolidation in $80k-$90k assuming a ~40% drawdown floor holds; instead BTC fell to $58,000 (~54% off ATH) and sits at $58,161, breaking the assumed floor and the $80k-$90k consolidation band." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin does not go to zero, it is going to a million at some point β€” 'Bitcoin has no ceiling because the dollar has no floor.' No timeframe given; admits it is hard to predict when $1M is reached.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/anthony-pompliano-predicts-bitcoin-could-hit-1-million-amid-dollar-debasement", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin has no ceiling because the dollar has no floor. … while it is easy to judge bitcoin's price, it is difficult to predict when it will reach $1 million.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$1M long-term call with explicitly no timeframe ('difficult to predict when'); open-ended horizon has not elapsed, BTC is $58,161 β€” undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "New bitcoin all-time high just now. We'll be saying that 'a lot more through the end of 2025' β€” i.e. BTC will keep printing new all-time highs through the end of 2025.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-19", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/APompliano/status/1858948053560160717", "source_type": "x", "quote": "New bitcoin all-time high just now. \n\nWe’ll be saying that a lot more through the end of 2025.", "timestamp": "2024-11-19T18:58:48.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted continued new ATHs through end of 2025; from $92,436 BTC kept printing highs, reaching $126,296 by 2025-12-31 deadline β€” new all-time highs occurred through end of 2025 as claimed." }, { "claim_text": "If you like bitcoin at $100,000, you're going to love it at $1 million β€” implies BTC is ultimately headed to $1M (long-term, no timeframe).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-05", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/APompliano/status/1864503380837589331", "source_type": "x", "quote": "If you like bitcoin at $100,000, you’re going to love it at $1 million.", "timestamp": "2024-12-05T02:53:41.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$1M long-term destination call with no timeframe; horizon open and undetermined β€” BTC peaked at $126,296 then fell to $58,161, nowhere near $1M but the call has no expiry." }, { "claim_text": "I expect bitcoin to print a new all-time high (made mid-Feb-2026 during the post-ATH drawdown; implies BTC will exceed its $126,296 ATH again). No timeframe given.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-21", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/APompliano/status/2025255274332790869", "source_type": "x", "quote": "@Kazba22 I expect bitcoin to print a new ATH", "timestamp": "2026-02-21T17:04:19.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a new ATH above $126,296 with no timeframe; post-call high only reached $82,814 and BTC is $58,161 β€” not yet achieved, but open-ended horizon has not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "The Bitcoin bear market will end sometime in the second half of 2026.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-22", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Will-The-Bitcoin-Bear-Market-Ever-End---Anthony-Pompliano-e3l4rov", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "my best guess is sometime in the second half of this year. And from there, Bitcoin goes back up. And all of a sudden, Bitcoin will rise all the way back to that all-time high.", "timestamp": "0:13:45", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted the bear market ends in H2 2026; window runs through 2026-12-31 which has not elapsed (as_of 2026-06-30), and BTC at $58,161 has not yet bottomed-and-recovered β€” undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Anthony Pompliano believes Bitcoin will hit $1 million during our lifetime, compounding at roughly 28% per year over the next decade.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-05-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Can-Bitcoin-Hit-1-Million---Anthony-Pompliano-e3j7h97", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "can Bitcoin hit a million bucks? 100%. And if you said to me, a compound annual growth rate of 28% over the next decade, that doesn't seem crazy. So my guess is during our lifetime, we're going to see Bitcoin hit two commas.", "timestamp": "0:15:50", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,379 since 2026-05-11); 2031-05-11 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Anthony Pompliano believes Bitcoin will have a big year in 2026 and expresses hope it returns to its all-time high (~$126k) this year.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-08", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Will-Bitcoin-Skyrocket-When-Iran-War-Ends---Anthony-Pompliano-e3hkde9", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think it is going to have a pretty big year here. Now, does it mean it's going to go to $300,000? I wouldn't say that, right? But if Bitcoin went back to an all-time high this year, I'd be happy and probably so would you.", "timestamp": "0:11:20", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Hoped BTC returns to its ~$126k ATH in 2026; half the year elapsed with a high of only $82,814 and price down at $58,161 β€” far from ATH and falling, the 'big year' is not materializing. Note: window technically open but trajectory is sharply against it." }, { "claim_text": "Pompliano expects Bitcoin to go flat to slightly down from current levels and does not expect an 80% drawdown, suggesting the bear market is shallower than prior cycles.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-02", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Is-Bitcoin-In-A-Bear-Market---Anthony-Pompliano-e3ei06d", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think we've got some time here where Bitcoin is going to go kind of flat to down. I don't think that we will get 80% drawdowns. I reserve the right to be wrong.", "timestamp": "0:17:19", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted 'flat to down' with no 80% drawdown; from $78,667 BTC fell to $58,000 (~26% from that point, ~54% from ATH) β€” 'down' was right but the move was a sharp decline, not flat-to-slightly-down, and the floor implied by his thesis broke." }, { "claim_text": "Pompliano says it is hard to see Bitcoin going down to $30K–$40K unless there is an exogenous shock or contagion event, implying a soft floor around that range.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 30000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-02-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Is-Bitcoin-In-A-Bear-Market---Anthony-Pompliano-e3ei06d", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "it is hard to see us going down to call it 30K, 40K Bitcoin price, unless there was an exogenous shock. There was some sort of contagion. There was some sort of forced selling in the market because of some sort of issue.", "timestamp": "0:19:46", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $30,000 (through 2026-07-01)." }, { "claim_text": "Pompliano expects Bitcoin's reduced volatility means it should not see the massive 80–90% drawdowns of past cycles, implying a higher structural floor going forward.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-26", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Why-Isnt-Bitcoin-Going-Up-While-Gold--Silver-Are-Surging---Anthony-Pompliano-e3e7ggl", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "You shouldn't expect Bitcoin to be as parabolic, but you also shouldn't expect it to have the massive 80, 90% drawdowns that we saw in the past either.", "timestamp": "0:07:50", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claimed reduced volatility means no 80-90% drawdowns and a higher structural floor; the drawdown from ATH to $58,000 is ~54% β€” not the catastrophic 80-90% he warned against, so technically held, but the deep ~54% slide undercuts the 'higher structural floor' framing." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has not topped for this market cycle and will go much higher, with both Bitcoin and gold heading much higher.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-02", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/My-Prediction-For-Bitcoins-Price-In-September--Anthony--John-Pompliano-e37lij3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Both are going much higher. And I don't think it's going to stop anytime soon because we're about to get rate cuts, more money printing.", "timestamp": "0:06:31", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said BTC had not topped and was going 'much higher' and wouldn't stop soon; from $111,248 it topped at $126,296 then collapsed to $58,161 β€” the cycle top came shortly after and price more than halved, opposite of the claim." }, { "claim_text": "September 2025 could be a month where Bitcoin goes up rather than down, contrary to its seasonal weakness pattern.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-09-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-02", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/My-Prediction-For-Bitcoins-Price-In-September--Anthony--John-Pompliano-e37lij3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I explain why maybe I think actually September is going to be a month where we go up instead of down. I give you all of the reasons why.", "timestamp": "0:02:18", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "September 2025 rose meaningfully: from $111,248 at the call to a $117,998 high by the 9/30 deadline (up, not down)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reset in the $105K–$112K range and then move back up; it has not topped for this market cycle.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 105000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2025-08-26", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Why-Is-Bitcoins-Price-Going-Down---Anthony--John-Pompliano-e37btra", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I don't know where we'll kind of end up is $110,000, you know, the bottom, $108,000, $105,000, $112,000, like somewhere in this general range, I think that we are going to reset. And then that gives us the ability to move back up.", "timestamp": "0:04:35", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2025-08-26..2026-07-01], reaching the $105,000 downside target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has not topped for this market cycle and will go to approximately $150K in the current bull market.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2025-08-26", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Why-Is-Bitcoins-Price-Going-Down---Anthony--John-Pompliano-e37btra", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitcoin's price go from $69,000 in November...all the way up to, let's say, $150,000, which I pretty much have been saying I could see that happening in this bull market.", "timestamp": "0:03:50", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-08-26); 2028-02-26 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will trade in the $110K–$125K range for a while before significant buying pushes it higher.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-26", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Why-Is-Bitcoins-Price-Going-Down---Anthony--John-Pompliano-e37btra", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think that this range that we're kind of in, call it 125 to maybe 110, will kind of hang out here for a while. But as we see these buyers come into the market...I do not believe has topped in any way for this market cycle.", "timestamp": "0:06:10", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Did trade the 110-125 band and push slightly higher to a $126,296 high, but the 'not topped in any way' premise failed β€” it then crashed to $58,000." }, { "claim_text": "Anthony Pompliano expects Bitcoin to reach approximately $150,000 before the end of 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2025", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-30", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/1581-Anthony--Polina-Pompliano--The-Bitcoin-Bull-Run-Is-Far-From-Over-e36879i", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I could easily see us hitting $150,000 or so before the end of the year. Some people are not excited about that as a return.", "timestamp": "0:07:36", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000." }, { "claim_text": "Anthony Pompliano predicts Bitcoin will continue rising in price over the coming months, driven by more buyers than sellers.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-30", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/1581-Anthony--Polina-Pompliano--The-Bitcoin-Bull-Run-Is-Far-From-Over-e36879i", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "There's more buyers than sellers. It's going to continue to go up in price over the coming months.", "timestamp": "0:08:13", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "From $117,830 it nudged to a $126,296 high but then collapsed to $58,000 (current $58,161) β€” it did not continue rising over the coming months." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin price will correct within one to three months once late-cycle retail comes in near the peak.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-27", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/1554-Anthony--John-Pompliano--The-Bitcoin-Bull-Run-Is-Back-e33elpj", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "they're going to come into Bitcoin as a get-rich-quick scheme towards the end of that bull market when the price is really kind of running. And when they come in, they're going to within a month, two months, three months, the price is going to correct.", "timestamp": "0:10:41", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "After the ~$126,296 peak a major correction followed all the way to $58,000, as predicted." }, { "claim_text": "Pompliano predicts Bitcoin will eventually reach $1 million, so long as it does not go to zero.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-02-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/APompliano/status/2024229454219034916", "source_type": "x", "quote": "If bitcoin doesn't go to zero, it's going to $1 million at some point.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-02-18); 2031-02-18 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The Bitcoin bear market will reach its end in the second half of 2026.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-22", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Will-The-Bitcoin-Bear-Market-Ever-End---Anthony-Pompliano-e3l4rov", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "what I am saying is if we look at the historical trends, it suggests that in the second half of this year, we will reach the Bitcoin bear market end.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "H2 2026 window (Jul-Dec, deadline 2026-12-31) has not elapsed as of 2026-06-30; bear-market end undetermined." } ] }, { "id": "anthony-sassano", "name": "Anthony Sassano", "handles": { "x": "@sassal0x", "nostr": null, "youtube": "The Daily Gwei", "web": "https://thedailygwei.substack.com" }, "category": [ "ethereum-educator", "commentator", "investor" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 298600, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/sassal0x" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [] }, { "id": "anthony-scaramucci", "name": "Anthony Scaramucci", "handles": { "x": "@Scaramucci", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.skybridge.com" }, "category": [ "institutional", "fund-manager", "macro" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 1000000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/scaramucci?lang=en" }, "score": 28.6, "score_adj": 35.1, "avg_specificity": 50, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 7, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 5, "partial": 0, "pending": 4 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "If we get the adoption right, and I believe we will, this could easily be a fifty to one hundred thousand dollar asset over the next two to three years. (Made at a St. Moritz conference, Jan 2023; characterized 2023 as a 'recovery year.')", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2026-01-16", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-01-16", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/anthony-scaramucci-predicts-bitcoin-boom-of-50000-to-100000-heres-when", "source_type": "article", "quote": "So if we get the adoption right, and I believe we will, this could easily be a fifty to one hundred thousand dollar asset over the next two to three years.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2023-01-16..2026-01-16], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Scaramucci predicted Bitcoin would reach $100,000 before the end of 2024, citing anticipated Fed rate cuts and pro-crypto legislation after the November 2024 US election.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-09-18", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptopotato.com/heres-why-scaramucci-expects-bitcoin-to-hit-100k-before-year-end/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "We are going to get pro-cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and stablecoin legislation in the first part of the next congressional term in the US. At the same time, you're intersecting with rate cuts from the Federal Reserve", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2024-09-18..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "By mid-2026 Bitcoin will be trading at $176,000 (roughly a threefold increase), driven by growing demand against a fixed supply. (Stated Oct 2024, framed as an 18-to-20-month forecast.)", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 176000, "deadline": "2026-06-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-10-30", "specificity": 54, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:9132d8756094b:0-will-bitcoin-hit-176k-anthony-scaramucci-lays-out-his-high-stakes-forecast/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "by mid-2026, the cryptocurrency will be traded at $176,000", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-06-30 horizon; never reached $176,000." }, { "claim_text": "SkyBridge maintains a year-end target of $180,000 to $200,000 for Bitcoin, which Scaramucci called 'a cautious price target,' pointing to demand far exceeding supply. (Made at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium / CNBC, Aug 2025, for end of 2025.)", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 180000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-19", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://decrypt.co/335977/anthony-scaramucci-cautiously-predicts-bitcoin-at-180k-by-end-of-2025", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Scaramucci stated his firm is targeting Bitcoin between $180,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2025, which he characterized as a cautious price target. 'there's just way more demand than the issued supply of Bitcoin, or the existing overall supply in the marketplace.'", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $180,000." }, { "claim_text": "Scaramucci predicted Bitcoin would 'easily' reach $150,000 in 2026 (later framed with a Q4 2026 timeline), tied to steady institutional adoption and passage of US market-structure / digital-asset legislation.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-14", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/zycrypto:b19ee3157094b:0-skybridge-capital-s-scaramucci-predicts-bitcoin-will-easily-reach-150k-in-2026/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "SkyBridge Capital's Scaramucci Predicts Bitcoin Will 'Easily' Reach $150K in 2026", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-12-14); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin can reclaim $70,000 by the end of July, because the market is burnt out and sentiment is so negative that any incremental buying will lift it through $70K. (Said on the 'All Things Markets' podcast with Mike Novogratz, June 2026.)", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 70000, "deadline": "2026-07-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-14", "specificity": 90, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/anthony-scaramucci-unveils-bitcoin-target-214159799.html", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitcoin can reclaim $70K by the end of July. I just think because it's burnt out and the sentiment is so negative that any incremental buying will lift it through $70K.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $67,264 since 2026-06-14); 2026-07-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Scaramucci says Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle remains intact and the current ~50% drawdown is a normal cyclical correction (milder than past 70%+ bears thanks to ETF/institutional demand); he expects Bitcoin to begin recovering in Q4 2026 with the rally extending into early 2027.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2027-03-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-17", "specificity": 44, "citation": { "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/skybridges-anthony-scaramucci-says-bitcoin-four-year-cycle-remains-intact-eyes-major-btc-rally-by-q4-2026", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin remains in a normal cyclical correction and has not broken its long-term bullish structure ... expects Bitcoin to begin recovering in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the rally extending into early 2027.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted Q4 2026 recovery into early 2027 (deadline 2027-03-31); window not yet reached as of 2026-06-30." }, { "claim_text": "Scaramucci predicted '$170,000 for this cycle,' adding that the Bitcoin halving was 'still not priced in.' (Tweet/comment, April 2024.)", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 170000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2024-04-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/skybridges-anthony-scaramucci-predicts-170000-bitcoin-price", "source_type": "article", "quote": "$170000 for this cycle ... Bitcoin halving is still not priced in.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-04-08); 2026-10-08 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could glide to $280,000 a coin, reaching a $5 trillion market valuation.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 280000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2021-01-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD295_-_Anthony_Scaramucci.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And I predict Bitcoin may do both of those things, but maybe it won't. It could glide to $280,000 a coin, have a $5 trillion market valuation, and still only be half of all of the gold that's been mined in our global society. And I think it's got a long way to go here.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-01-04 horizon; never reached $280,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could reach $100,000 per coin by the end of 2021.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-01-04", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD295_-_Anthony_Scaramucci.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Could this be $100,000 per coin at the end of 1231, 2021? I believe it could be. And so if you're in with us now and you go four to one on the money, you're going to be a very happy camper.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Anthony Scaramucci is calling for Bitcoin to reach approximately $150,000 by the end of 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2025", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/news-block-bitcoin-price-consolidates-fed-dissent-raises-concerns-boomers-guard-real-estate-wealth-strivesemler-merger-builds-10900-bitcoin-treasury", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Other big names like Tom Lee and Anthony Scaramucci are still calling for those kinds of prices to happen by the end of this", "timestamp": "0:02:26", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000." } ] }, { "id": "apsk32", "name": "apsk32", "handles": { "x": "@apsk32", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "analyst", "power-law", "on-chain-model", "anonymous" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 0, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": null }, "score": 8.3, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 49, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 6, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 5, "partial": 1, "pending": 4 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will be worth more than $1,000,000 in the 2030s; the power-law support line passes $1,000,000 around 2036. If BTC trades ~5 years ahead of support it could hit $1M by January 2031; the absolute latest is by 2036.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2036-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-03-31", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/03/31/expert-says-dont-spend-time-worrying-about-prices-predicts-timeline-for-bitcoin-to-1m-using-power-law/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The graph shows that if Bitcoin trades five years ahead of the support, it could hit $1 million by January 2031. However, the absolute latest for the premier asset to rally over 1,121% from its current price to $1 million is by January 2036.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-03-31); 2036-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will surge to over $200,000 before the end of 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-03-31", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/03/31/expert-says-dont-spend-time-worrying-about-prices-predicts-timeline-for-bitcoin-to-1m-using-power-law/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "In a parallel commentary, he predicted a surge to over $200,000 before the end of 2025.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "Expecting $200,000+ Bitcoin in Q4 (2025), based on Bitcoin power curve time contours overlaying the 2013/2017/2021/2025 four-year cycles.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-04-27", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:f9174c568094b:0-bitcoin-power-law-model-forecasts-200k-btc-price-in-2025/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Expecting $200,000+ Bitcoin in Q4. Gold suggests we could go significantly higher.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "If the four-year pattern continues, Bitcoin could be between $200,000 and $300,000 by Christmas (2025), before bullish momentum begins to fade at the start of 2026.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2025-12-25", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-11", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:cdf89e0e1094b:0-bitcoin-christmas-rally-to-200k-or-300k-possible-based-on-power-law-model/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin could be between $200,000 and $300,000 by Christmas, before the bullish momentum begins to fade at the start of 2026.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-25 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could peak near $200,000 by November or December (2025) if the current cycle stays on track; open-minded to a cycle peak well above $200,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-14", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:2f373f2e0094b:0-how-high-can-bitcoin-price-go/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin could peak near $200,000 by November or December if the current cycle stays on track", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "We're 3+ months away from upwards acceleration and we could see prices go up 4x by the end of 2025. (Stated in a July 9, 2024 X post when BTC was ~$58,000, implying a ~$230,000 target.)", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-07-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:f061b4f16094b:0-bitcoin-power-law-sees-up-to-300-btc-price-gains-by-late-2025/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "We're 3+ months away from upwards acceleration and we could see prices go up 4x by the end of 2025.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "4x from ~$58K (~$232K) never came close by 2025-12-31 β€” high by deadline was only $126,296 (~2.2x)." }, { "claim_text": "Fresh lows below current levels are possible this cycle; mid-to-low $50k range would not be surprising.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 53000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2026-03-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/apsk32/status/2037604377947775230", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The bulk of the (few) samples below our current level happened during the last bear market. This keeps me open minded to fresh lows this cycle. Mid to low 50's would not shock me.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-03-27); 2028-09-27 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin likely has not yet found the bottom, and even if it has, prices will remain low for months.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-08", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/apsk32/status/2020591966619344986", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I assign a high probability to the event that we haven't found the bottom yet, and even if we have, that prices will stay low for months.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "A lower low ($58,000 < $70,279) confirmed the bottom wasn't in, but the intervening rally to $82,814 (+18%) contradicts 'prices will stay low for months.'" }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will find its cycle bottom well before the end of 2026, consistent with the ~4-year cycle pattern.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/apsk32/status/2019161241374335220", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Previous major lows were ~4 years apart. End of 2014, 2018, 2022. At our current rate, we'll find the bottom well before the end of 2026.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'Bottom well before end of 2026' window (deadline 2026-12-31) open; price is currently at the lows ($58,000-$58,161), bottom not yet confirmed." }, { "claim_text": "The $50k range is a reasonable buy target; BTC could dip into the $40s but that is less likely.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-02-23", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/apsk32/status/2026026523447411097", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Being patient with my buys. Hunting in the $50k range. Could we get into the 40s or even lower? Sure, but I'll run out of cash before that happens.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-02-23); 2027-02-23 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "arthur-hayes", "name": "Arthur Hayes", "handles": { "x": "@CryptoHayes", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "cryptohayes.substack.com" }, "category": [ "macro-essayist", "trader", "ex-exchange-founder" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 804000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitterscore.io/twitter/cryptohayes/" }, "score": 30, "score_adj": 34.1, "avg_specificity": 25, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 20, "counts": { "correct": 4, "wrong": 12, "partial": 4, "pending": 9 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "In his Jan 7, 2022 essay 'Maelstrom', Hayes said he was short-term bearish and that Bitcoin could trade below $30,000 (and Ether below $2,000) within a three-to-six month horizon as rising rates and a flattening Fed balance sheet force speculators to dump crypto; he added that at or below $20,000 BTC he would question whether crypto can preserve value.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 30000, "deadline": "2022-07-07", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-01-07", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptohayes.medium.com/maelstrom-ee6021e9d0c2", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "I believe that Bitcoin could trade below $30,000 and Ether below $2,000 in a three-to-six month time horizon. ... If Bitcoin trades at or below $20,000 or Ether trades at or below $1,400, then I will start to wonder whether these cryptos can preserve their value in energy terms.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Within the 3-6mo horizon BTC traded to a $17,567 low by the 2022-07-07 deadline β€” below $30K (and below his $20K marker)." }, { "claim_text": "On X (March 10, 2025) Hayes called a likely local bottom for Bitcoin around $70,000, framing a drop from the ~$110k ATH as a normal ~36% bull-market correction and advising buyers to 'load up the truck' once central banks ease.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 70000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-03-10", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/arthur-hayes-predicts-bitcoin-bottom-at-70k-sees-strong-bull-market-ahead/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "BTC likely bottoms around $70K. 36% correction from $110K ATH, v normal for a bull market.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$70K was not the bottom β€” BTC subsequently fell to $58,000, well below the called local low." }, { "claim_text": "In his April 1, 2025 essay 'The BBC', Hayes argued the Fed's pivot from QT to QE on Treasuries meant Bitcoin had already bottomed at a local low of ~$76,500 and would now climb to $250,000 by year-end 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-04-01", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:28635350f094b:0-bitcoin-price-can-hit-250k-in-2025-if-fed-shifts-to-qe-arthur-hayes/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If my analysis of the Fed's major pivot from QT to QE for treasuries is correct, then Bitcoin hit a local low of $76,500 last month, and now we begin the ascent to $250,000 by year-end.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $250,000." }, { "claim_text": "In his July 22, 2025 essay 'Time Signature', Hayes reiterated a year-end target of Bitcoin $250,000 and Ether $10,000 by 31 December 2025, driven by a Western fiat 'credit geyser'.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-22", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin-250000-ether-10000-by-year-end-arthur-hayes-thinks-so/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin $250,000 and Ether $10,000 by 31 December 2025.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $250,000." }, { "claim_text": "On the Milk Road Show (Nov 26, 2025) Hayes said Bitcoin's drop from ~$125,000 to ~$80,000 was the bottom of the cycle β€” a liquidity-driven reset (~$1T drained from dollar money markets Jul-Nov), not a new bear market β€” and that dollar liquidity had bottomed and would only rise from here.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-26", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arthur-hayes-sticks-extreme-bitcoin-015504542.html", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "All we know is that we have essentially bottomed on the liquidity chart and the direction in the future is higher.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "The ~$80K 'cycle bottom' was breached β€” BTC fell to $58,000 (current $58,161), well below, after only a brief bounce to $97,964." }, { "claim_text": "In a Dec 19, 2025 essay, Hayes argued the Fed's Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) programme is 'QE in disguise' and that once the market recognizes this Bitcoin will quickly retake $124,000 and push toward $200,000 (by ~March 2026).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2026-03-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-19", "specificity": 68, "citation": { "url": "https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-price-to-200000-by-march-thanks-to-fed/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "As the market equates RMP to QE, Bitcoin will quickly retake $124,000 and punch quickly towards $200,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $97,964 through the 2026-03-31 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "On X (Nov 8, 2022, post-FTX collapse) Hayes warned that the FTX/Alameda blowup was crypto's 'Lehman' moment and that it was NOT the bottom β€” invoking the S&P's 666 low in March 2009, he said BTC could fall to ~$17,500.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 17500, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-11-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoHayes/status/1590076719184039936", "source_type": "x", "quote": "FTX = Lehman\n\nThat wasn’t the bottom. \n\n$SPX hit 666 in March of 2009. \n\nTherefore $17,500 BTC is at risk. \n\nHow β€˜bout dem puts now…", "timestamp": "2022-11-08T20:20:06.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Warned $17,500 BTC 'at risk' / not the bottom from $18,550; BTC fell to a low of $15,460 after the call, reaching below $17,500 as warned." }, { "claim_text": "On X (Nov 10, 2023) Hayes declared the bull market had arrived ('The time is now!') and to YOLO, with long-run targets of BTC $1mm and ETH $100k.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-11-10", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoHayes/status/1722815182731423798", "source_type": "x", "quote": "This summer I visited the ancestors in Rapa Nui and I asked them when the bull market would arrive? \n\nThey told me to be patient, read the words of the Lord, and I would know when to YOLO. \n\nThe time is now!\n\n$BTC = $1mm\n$ETH = $100k\n\nYachtzee bitches!!! https://t.co/ufV9nthSDg", "timestamp": "2023-11-10T03:15:22.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called the bull market 'now' from $37,325 and BTC did rally hard (high $126,296), so the directional bull-market call was right, but the $1mm BTC / $100k ETH targets are nowhere near met." }, { "claim_text": "On X (Jan 23, 2024) promoting his essay 'Yellen or Talkin'?', Hayes said the BTC slump signalled a TradFi mini-financial crisis and that Bitcoin would bottom in the $30,000 to $35,000 range.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 35000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-01-23", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoHayes/status/1749931698710520198", "source_type": "x", "quote": "\"Yellen or Talkin'?\" is an essay on why I think the $BTC slump is pointing to a TradFi mini-financial crisis, and it will bottom in the $30k to $35k range.\n\nhttps://t.co/uwiLscKwzW https://t.co/zRpUcE6TIz", "timestamp": "2024-01-23T23:06:43.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a BTC bottom in $30k-$35k; from $39,878 BTC never traded below ~$38,501 and instead rallied to $126,296 β€” it never reached the called $30-35k bottom zone." }, { "claim_text": "On X (Apr 22, 2025) promoting his essay 'Ski Cut', Hayes argued the Treasury buy-back ('the BBC's new toy') would send Bitcoin through $110,000 and onwards to $200,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2025-04-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoHayes/status/1914821693257949435", "source_type": "x", "quote": "In my essay \"Ski Cut\" I discuss the BBC's new toy, the treasury buy back, and why it will send $BTC through $110k onwards to $200k. \n\nhttps://t.co/sAavSpeAFQ https://t.co/txlcclAMyb", "timestamp": "2025-04-22T23:20:41.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-04-22); 2027-04-22 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "On X (Aug 2, 2025) Hayes turned cautious, arguing that with the US tariff bill coming due in Q3 and no major economy creating credit fast enough, Bitcoin would pull back and test $100,000 (and ETH test $3,000).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoHayes/status/1951510939469292023", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Y? US Tariff bill coming due in 3q … at least the mrkt believes that after NFP print. No major econ is creating enough credit fast enough to boost nominal gdp. So $BTC tests $100k, $ETH tests $3k. Come see my @WebX_Asia Tokyo keynote Aug 25 for more info. Back to the beach. https://t.co/zuHlwgQKC7", "timestamp": "2025-08-02T05:10:39.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said BTC would pull back to test $100k from $112,543; BTC subsequently fell well through $100k (low $58,000), so the $100k test was met." }, { "claim_text": "On X (Oct 6 / Oct 9, 2025) promoting his essay 'Long Live the King!', Hayes argued the four-year Bitcoin/crypto cycle is dead and 'doesn't apply this time' β€” i.e. no classic late-2025 cycle top and bear market.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-09", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoHayes/status/1976120410027721015", "source_type": "x", "quote": "β€œLong Live the King!” an essay on why the $BTC 4yr cycle is dead. \n\n https://t.co/7RldfQVqT5", "timestamp": "2025-10-09T02:59:54.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claimed the 4-year cycle is dead / no late-2025 top and bear; instead BTC topped near the made-on date ($123,822 high) and fell ~52% to $58,000 β€” a classic cycle top and bear played out." }, { "claim_text": "In a Feb 18, 2026 essay, Hayes warned that an AI-driven credit shock could push Bitcoin further down β€” potentially below $60,000 as political dysfunction delays the Fed β€” but that the eventual money-printing response would pump Bitcoin off its lows to new all-time highs (above the ~$126,000 prior peak).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/18/bitcoin-s-plunge-signals-coming-ai-crisis-but-massive-fed-response-will-drive-new-record-high-arthur-hayes", "source_type": "article", "quote": "bitcoin could fall further before the Fed acts, potentially breaking below $60,000 as political dysfunction delays the central bank's response ... the surge in fiat credit creation pumps Bitcoin decisively off its lows.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "From $66,420 BTC did break below $60,000 (low $58,000) as warned, but the second leg β€” pump off the lows to new ATHs above ~$126k β€” has not occurred (current $58,161, high since only $82,814)." }, { "claim_text": "In a July 2025 essay/interview, Hayes laid out a long-dated thesis that fiscal-led liquidity waves and stablecoin/Treasury dynamics could see Bitcoin pump ~10x to $1 million by 2028 (with the Nasdaq 100 at ~100,000).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2028-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-12", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/arthur-hayes-gets-ready-for-monster-alt-season-maelstrom-fund-is-backing-up-the-truck/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "You will miss out on bitcoin pumping 10x to $1 million or the Nasdaq 100 spiking 5x to 100,000 by 2028.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-07-12); 2028-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Asked if the bottom is in and Bitcoin is back in a bull market (he had written the bull market started when the U.S. bombed Iran), Hayes affirms: yes, the bottom is in and we are back in a Bitcoin bull market.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-22", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/IvgRRxLsDmYtTNIguHKX/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "But I read your piece recently, and you said that the bull market started when the U.S. bombed Iran. So do you think the bottom is in now and we're back in a bull market for Bitcoin? Yes, I do. And I think that there is an AI fear for deflation.", "timestamp": "0:01:15", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Affirmed 'bottom is in, back in a bull market' from $75,444; instead BTC fell to $58,000 and sits at $58,161 below the call price β€” no bottom and no bull market." }, { "claim_text": "Arthur Hayes gives an end-of-year Bitcoin price target of approximately $125,000, driven by digital credit liquidity.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 125000, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-28", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Bitcoiners-Predict-MASSIVE-Bull-Market--Anthony-Pompliano-e3ijt0o", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think my end of year choice target is like $125,000, whatever. It doesn't fucking matter how long anyways.", "timestamp": "0:01:12", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-28); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Arthur Hayes does not expect Bitcoin to recover to $100k in the near term, as the AI-driven deflation problem must first be resolved before a new Bitcoin bull run can begin.", "claim_type": "ceiling", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-04-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Bitcoin-Billionaire-Reveals-His-Current-Investing-Strategy--Arthur-Hayes-e3hlnjr", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "does Bitcoin go to 100,000 just because the war ended? I don't think so. I think we still have this AI issue.", "timestamp": "0:13:04", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was $82,814, stayed at/below $100,000 (through 2026-07-01)." }, { "claim_text": "Arthur Hayes would not buy Bitcoin today and is waiting for a large central-bank money-printing event as the catalyst before turning bullish.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-09", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Bitcoin-Billionaire-Reveals-His-Current-Investing-Strategy--Arthur-Hayes-e3hlnjr", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "would you take a unit of fiat today and put it into Bitcoin? I would say no, because I still believe that we're waiting for that big print event.", "timestamp": "0:15:02", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said he would not buy, waiting for the big print event; from $71,798 BTC fell to $58,161 β€” staying out was vindicated by the subsequent decline." }, { "claim_text": "Arthur Hayes (Maelstrom) believes Bitcoin has likely bottomed at $60,000 and will turn constructive on risk going forward.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/The-2-Trillion-Heist-Is-Coming--Beware-Of-The-SpaceX-IPO--Bitcoin-Simply-e3knpd3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think that on balance, Bitcoin probably bottomed at $60k. And myself and Maelstrom will turn a bit more constructive on risk going forward.", "timestamp": "0:07:29", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-06-13..2026-07-01] β€” a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin price will go up because the new Fed chair Warsh will pursue money creation and lower rates, expanding the Fed's balance sheet.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-14", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Why-Trumps-New-Fed-Chair-Means-Bitcoin-Number-Go-Up--Arthur-Hayes-e3jbcdv", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Warris is going to do what Trump wants to do, which is more money creation, lower rates. And that's what's going to happen. And what does that mean for Bitcoin? Right. Number go up.", "timestamp": "0:13:49", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted 'number go up' on Warsh-driven money creation from $81,079; instead BTC fell to $58,161 (high since only $82,066), the opposite of the directional call." }, { "claim_text": "BTC will reach $1 million due to the end of the Petro/Eurodollar regime and energy price dynamics.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2022-03-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoHayes/status/1504233550073110529", "source_type": "x", "quote": "What happens when you \"cancel\" the world's largest energy producer ... ? \"Energy Cancelled\" is an essay on why the post-1971 Petro / Eurodollar regime died on 26 February 2022. Are you ready for $1 million #Bitcoin and $10,000 #Gold?", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2022-03-16); 2027-03-16 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "BTC will reach $1 million due to yield curve control and money printing dynamics triggered by the bank term funding program.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2023-03-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoHayes/status/1636503341701255170", "source_type": "x", "quote": "\"Kaiseki\" is an essay about how the #banktermfundingprogram is Yield Curve Control by another name. Get ready for infinite money printing and $BTC $1 million.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-03-16); 2028-03-16 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "$77k was probably the cycle bottom for BTC.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 77000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2025-03-20", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoHayes/status/1902564099592220793", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Was $BTC $77k the bottom, prob. But stonks prob have more pain left to fully convert Jay to team Trump so stay nimble and cashed up.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $74,421 in [2025-03-20..2025-12-20] β€” a minor break (within 3.3%) of the $77,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "BTC trading below $100k might be the last opportunity to buy at that level before it goes higher.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2025-04-21", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoHayes/status/1914229735506452547", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Seriously fam, this might be the last chance you have to buy $BTC < $100k πŸ˜‰πŸ˜‰πŸ˜‰πŸ˜‰. \n\nNew essay drops this week about The BBC Bazooka, treasury buy backs.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $80,525 in [2025-04-21..2026-01-21], below the $100,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Capital controls will drive BTC to $1 million and beyond by 2028.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2028", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-15", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoHayes/status/1922825185192780092", "source_type": "x", "quote": "\"Fatty Fatty Boom Boom\" argues that capital controls will be used instead of tariffs to correct Pax Americana's imbalances. The effects on foreign asset ownership will drive $BTC to $1 million and beyond by 2028.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-05-15); 2028-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "BTC bottom is near but requires patience β€” wait for US stock markets to fall before accumulating.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-21", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoHayes/status/1991867359083241473", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC undershooting decline in $ liq. Bottom is near, but be patient before blowing your load. Wait for US stonks to puke as well. We are playing for more money printing, and for that we need AI tech stocks to crater.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said 'bottom is near' from $85,069; BTC instead fell further to $58,000 and sits at $58,161, well below β€” the bottom was not near." }, { "claim_text": "BTC will reach $1 million.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-01-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoHayes/status/2009390159347978365", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Run it fucking hot! If you ain't long you is wrong!\n\n$BTC to $1m", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2026-01-08); 2030-01-08 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "BTC will likely bottom around $70k β€” a 36% correction from the $110k ATH β€” before resuming its bull run.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 70000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-03-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoHayes/status/1899261481805566368", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Be fucking patient. $BTC likely bottoms around $70k. 36% correction from $110k ATH, v normal for a bull market. \n\nThen we need stonks, $SPX and $NDX to enter free fall. Then we need TradFi muppet to go under. \n\nTHEN we get Fed, PBOC, ECB, and BOJ all easing to make", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $60,001 in [2025-03-11..2026-03-11], below the $70,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Arthur Hayes says the Bitcoin cycle recovery will take longer than skeptics claim but happen sooner than most expect.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-14", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Why-Trumps-New-Fed-Chair-Means-Bitcoin-Number-Go-Up--Arthur-Hayes-e3jbcdv", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think it'll take longer than the Fudsters say it will, but it'll happen sooner than we think. It's just math.", "timestamp": "0:00:20", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claim commits to Bitcoin price recovering and making new highs on a timeline sooner than consensus expects, with no specific date or price level given." } ] }, { "id": "ash-crypto", "name": "Ash Crypto", "handles": { "x": "@Ashcryptoreal", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "influencer", "trader", "technical-analyst" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 1400000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.feedspot.com/crypto_twitter_influencers/" }, "score": 25, "score_adj": 29.6, "avg_specificity": 76, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 1, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "On Oct 1, 2025 Ash Crypto predicted that October would close with a massive gain and a Q4 parabolic pump would send BTC to $150k-$180k (with ETH to $8k-$12k and a true altseason).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-01", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analyst-warned-market-crash-makes-192154426.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Then October monthly will close with a massive % gain, and the Q4 parabolic pump will start, which will send BTC to $150k-$180k, ETH to $8k-$12k, and the TRUE alt season will finally begin", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000." }, { "claim_text": "On Oct 1, 2025 Ash Crypto warned that the early-October pump was a fakeout and that BTC would soon get a 'nasty drop' dumping closer to the $106k level (with ETH near $3800 or lower) before rebounding.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 106000, "deadline": "2025-10-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-01", "specificity": 90, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analyst-warned-market-crash-makes-192154426.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I think we are seeing a pump to make everyone believe PUMPtober is real and soon we can get a nasty drop where Bitcoin dumps closer to the $106k level", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called a 'nasty drop closer to $106k' by Oct 31 from $118,660; BTC did drop (low by deadline $103,517, reaching below the ~$106k target) but only after first pumping to a new high $126,296, so the fakeout-then-drop thesis was partially right with the level hit but loosely." } ] }, { "id": "axel-adler", "name": "Axel Adler Jr", "handles": { "x": "@AxelAdlerJr", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://axeladlerjr.com/" }, "category": [ "on-chain analyst", "CryptoQuant contributor", "newsletter author" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 0, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/AxelAdlerJr" }, "score": 90, "score_adj": 95.5, "avg_specificity": 53, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 5, "counts": { "correct": 4, "wrong": 0, "partial": 1, "pending": 3 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bull (optimistic) case: if the momentum ratio breaks through 1.0 and holds above it, NUPL/MVRV metrics will show a new impulse and the price could reach $150-175K, repeating the cycle logic of 2017 and 2021.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2025-05-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2025/05/bitcoin-start-rally/227875", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If the Ratio breaks through 1.0 and holds above it, the NUPL/MVRV metrics will show a new impulse, and the price could reach $150-175K", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-05-06); 2027-11-06 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Based on the MVRV oscillator over the last ~4 years, when MVRV reaches 2.75 it marks an early inflection point where long-term holders begin taking profits; per Adler's model that level now corresponds to a Bitcoin price of approximately $130,900 (the first selling-pressure point).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 130900, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2025-07-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:2f373f2e0094b:0-how-high-can-bitcoin-price-go/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Onchain analyst Axel Adler Jr. ... Historically, when the MVRV hits 2.75, it signals an early inflection point where long-term holders begin to take profits. According to Adler's current model, that level now corresponds to a Bitcoin price of $130,900.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-07-14); 2026-07-14 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The 'Peak Flag' late-cycle signal (triggered when BTC spot price is roughly 11x the long-term-holder realized price) could appear between October and November 2025, marking the final phase of the bull cycle, provided it coincides with a wave of experienced-holder selling and a spike in volatility that begins to fade.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-11-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-09", "specificity": 66, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-peak-coming-october-november-134032455.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Based on the current trajectory, Adler estimated that this signal could appear between October and November 2025, provided it coincides with a wave of experienced holder selling and a spike in volatility that eventually begins to fade.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a late-cycle 'Peak Flag' top signal in Oct-Nov 2025; BTC peaked at $126,296 within that window and rolled over (low by Nov-30 deadline $80,525), marking the cycle top as called." }, { "claim_text": "Per the Adjusted Realized Price Bands model, Bitcoin only truly enters a mid- to long-term bottoming phase if it falls to the critical ~$59,000 level (lower boundary ~$47K, Realized Price Alive ~$59K); the process is estimated to take about six months and depends on the return of long-term real demand, not sentiment-driven rebounds.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 59000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605394770", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin would need to fall to the key level of $59,000 before a mid- to long-term bottom could form ... the core factor driving market stabilization is not emotional recovery or local rebounds, but rather the return of long-term real demand.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC did fall to the critical ~$59K level (low $58,000, now $58,161 from $78,682), but the mid/long-term bottom-forming thesis remains unconfirmed β€” it's sitting at the level, not clearly bottomed or recovered." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin breaks below the ~$67,675 support, the $54K-$58K zone comes back into play.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 58000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-07", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/AxelAdlerJr/status/2041415087827702256", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin is $1,000 away from its most important support level of the cycle. -44.8% drawdown. $67,675 is the line. Hold = recovery scenario intact. Break = $54-58K back on the table.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC broke below the $67,675 support (from $71,910) and the $54K-$58K zone came back into play β€” low $58,000, currently trading at $58,161, right at the predicted band." }, { "claim_text": "The $100K level will act as a wall of resistance for Bitcoin.", "claim_type": "ceiling", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-01-15", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/AxelAdlerJr/status/2011708593851285837", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$100K Level to Become a Wall of Resistance \nβ˜•οΈMorning Brief #83 πŸ‘‡", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was $97,176, stayed at/below $100,000 (through 2026-07-01)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is set up for a Santa rally (year-end upward move) given a bullish regime and buyer-favorable asymmetry.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-01-01", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-22", "specificity": 76, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/AxelAdlerJr/status/2003011584810189161", "source_type": "x", "quote": "BTC is entering a window for a Santa rally: the Regime Score is bullish but not overheated. Short liquidations are reinforcing the asymmetry in favor of buyers.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Year-end Santa rally materialized: BTC rose from $88,557 to a high of $90,542 by the 2026-01-01 deadline β€” an upward year-end move." }, { "claim_text": "No clear obstacles prevent Bitcoin from staging a year-end Santa rally (upward move).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-01-01", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-22", "specificity": 76, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/AxelAdlerJr/status/2003018620864168247", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The macro backdrop also looks constructive, with no clear obstacles preventing BTC from staging a Santa rally. Both the morning brief and yesterday’s report point to this scenario.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Santa rally played out as forecast β€” BTC climbed from $88,557 to $90,542 by year-end with no breakdown (low by deadline $86,350)." } ] }, { "id": "barry-silbert", "name": "Barry Silbert", "handles": { "x": "@BarrySilbert", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "investor", "founder", "executive" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 811600, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/BarrySilbert" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "On a late-January 2026 sell-off that pushed BTC below $75,000, Silbert called the slump a 'gift from the crypto gods' and said 'A massive capital rotation into crypto is about to begin. Time to pick your fighter.' β€” a bullish directional call that a recovery/rotation into crypto was imminent.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-31", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/barry-silbert-sees-latest-slump-190108056.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "A massive capital rotation into crypto is about to begin. Time to pick your fighter", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "The 'massive capital rotation / imminent recovery' didn't hold: after a brief bounce to $84,138 from $78,648, BTC crashed to $58,161 β€” ~26% below the call price." }, { "claim_text": "At Bitcoin Investor Week (mid-Feb 2026), Silbert capped BTC's upside relative to smaller-cap plays: 'Unless the U.S. dollar completely collapses, Bitcoin is not going to go up 500x' (he argued Zcash could 500x but BTC could not). A ceiling-flavored directional view that BTC's forward upside is bounded absent a dollar collapse.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-11", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.theblock.co/post/389472/dcg-barry-silbert-bitcoin-privacy-crypto-zcash", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Unless the U.S. dollar completely collapses, Bitcoin is not going to go up 500x.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "The ceiling-flavored call held β€” BTC did not go up 500x; it declined from $67,025 to $58,161 with no dollar collapse, far from any 500x move." } ] }, { "id": "ben-armstrong", "name": "Ben Armstrong (BitBoy)", "handles": { "x": "@BenArmstrongsX", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "youtuber", "influencer" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 99400, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/benarmstrongsx" }, "score": 25, "score_adj": 21.6, "avg_specificity": 65, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 6, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 4, "partial": 1, "pending": 4 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will top out around $300,000 in September to October of this year (2021), then we will have a bear market.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 300000, "deadline": "2021-10-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-04-22", "specificity": 74, "citation": { "url": "https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2021/04/22/interview-with-bitboy-crypto-ben-armstrong-bitcoin-could-reach-300k-by-late-2021/", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "The history says, Bitcoin will top out around $3,00,000 in September to October of this year. Then we will have a bear market.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $66,999 through the 2021-10-31 horizon; never reached $300,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin would reach $200,000 per token by the end of 2024 (later softened to mid-2025 or the end of 2024), stated during his 'Crypto Crossfire' program.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2025-06-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-10-28", "specificity": 54, "citation": { "url": "https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/1538918", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin (BTC) would reach a price tag of $200,000 per token by the end of 2024. He later adjusted this to mid-2025 or the end of 2024.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $112,000 through the 2025-06-30 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is still poised to reach the $100,000 mark this year (2024), reaffirmed despite a crash to ~$65,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-04-13", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://coingape.com/ben-armstrong-optimistic-over-bitcoin-price-rally-to-100k-despite-crash/amp/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Armstrong took to X to reassure his followers that Bitcoin is still poised to reach the coveted $100,000 mark this year.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2024-04-13..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Forecasted that Bitcoin could reach $146,641 in this cycle (cycle top target), though not based on any specific analysis.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 146641, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2024-09-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2024/09/09/bitboy-boldly-predicts-bitcoin-cycle-top-at-146641-despite-ongoing-turbulence/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Armstrong forecasted that Bitcoin could reach $146,641 in this cycle, though he did not base this figure on any specific analysis.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-09-09); 2027-03-09 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The price of Bitcoin is not going to go over $150,000; $140,000 is a more realistic peak target (with a possible temporary spike to $170k-$180k he was skeptical of).", "claim_type": "ceiling", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2024-08-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://crypto.news/prosperity-of-the-fools-bitcoin-xrp-poised-for-bull-run-beginning-april-1-2025-bitboy/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The price of Bitcoin is not going to go over $150,000", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was $126,296, stayed at/below $150,000 (through 2026-07-01)." }, { "claim_text": "Believes the bull market begins on April Fool's Day (April 1, 2025), with the bull run potentially peaking between April and the end of June 2025.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-06-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-08-11", "specificity": 44, "citation": { "url": "https://crypto.news/prosperity-of-the-fools-bitcoin-xrp-poised-for-bull-run-beginning-april-1-2025-bitboy/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I've been a big believer in April Fool's Day [for] this bull market next year", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bull market did run (BTC went $58,722 to a $126,296 ATH), but the predicted April-June 2025 peak was wrong β€” by the 2025-06-30 deadline the high was only $112,000 and the real top came in Oct 2025." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in 2026.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-18", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BenArmstrongsX/status/2001691485574697020", "source_type": "x", "quote": "NEW All Time High for Bitcoin Coming in 2026", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "2026 window still open (as_of 2026-06-30); H1 high was only $97,964 vs the $126,296 ATH and BTC sits at $58,161, but a new ATH by year-end is not yet ruled out." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could fall to $10,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2025-12-17", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BenArmstrongsX/status/2001329122757464273", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin Could PLUMMET to $10,000 Per Coin", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2025-12-17); 2029-12-17 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $148k by December 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 148000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-08", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BenArmstrongsX/status/1975946950706151429", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin To $148k by December (What Crypto Investors NEED to KNOW)", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $124,254 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $148,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will double in price within 60 days from late October 2025.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-28", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-29", "specificity": 76, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BenArmstrongsX/status/1983557362318541215", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin to DOUBLE in 60 days (Bullish Crypto Prediction)", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC did not double in 60 days β€” from $110,032 it reached only $113,690 (+3%) by the 2025-12-28 deadline, nowhere near the ~$220K needed." } ] }, { "id": "benjamin-cowen", "name": "Benjamin Cowen", "handles": { "x": "@intocryptoverse", "nostr": null, "youtube": "@intothecryptoverse", "web": "https://intothecryptoverse.com/" }, "category": [ "analyst", "quant", "youtuber", "data-scientist" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 1000000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://www.sotwe.com/intocryptoverse (search snippet; ~1M on X. YouTube ~970K per Dailyhodl/Bitget Dec-2025 articles. Exact live X count not openable β€” SocialBlade/SpeakRJ returned 403, X auth-walled.)" }, "score": 37.5, "score_adj": 33.2, "avg_specificity": 52, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 4, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 2, "partial": 1, "pending": 3 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "In January 2022, with BTC tumbling, Cowen called $30,000 a major area / potential floor and described a 'full-on worst-case scenario' that would put Bitcoin around $20,000 (while declining to call $30k an absolute bottom).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 20000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-01-23", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/22/01/25175916/how-far-will-bitcoin-fall-crypto-analyst-benjamin-cowen-identifies-the-bottom", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Clearly $30,000 is a big area as well. I don't want to say there's necessarily an absolute floor ... a 'full-on worst-case scenario' would put Bitcoin around $20,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$30K was not a floor and even the 'worst-case' ~$20K was breached β€” BTC bottomed at $15,460 (Nov 2022), below both cited levels." }, { "claim_text": "In late August 2023 Cowen said there was a 'good chance we see $23,000 BTC in September,' citing September being historically the most bearish month for Bitcoin and 2023 being a pre-halving year (avg Sept return ~ -7%).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 23000, "deadline": "2023-09-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-08-30", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/u_today:f93da0b87094b:0-23-000-bitcoin-btc-prediction-changed-by-analyst-benjamin-cowen/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Analyst Benjamin Cowen has revised his earlier prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) would plummet to $23,000 by the end of September ... as of October 1, Bitcoin was trading at around $27,123.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC never hit $23,000 in September 2023 β€” the Sept low was $24,900 and it closed the window near $27,123; the $23K call did not come true." }, { "claim_text": "In Nov 2023 Cowen projected Bitcoin could reach over $100,000 by late 2025, with a logarithmic-regression-based peak near $111,000, noting major peaks normally occur in Q4 of the post-halving year and that each cycle high has been ~2.5 log-regression bands lower than the prior (diminishing returns).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-11-14", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/analyst-benjamin-cowen-bullish-on-bitcoin-expects-100k-price-tag-by-late-2025-2023-11-14", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Normally, we've seen these major peaks occur in Q4 of the post-halving year ... Each market cycle high has been two and a half logarithmic regression bands lower than the preceding one ... Bitcoin could reach over $100,000 by the end of 2025 ... peak at around $111,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2023-11-14..2025-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "In Aug 2025 Cowen projected a Bitcoin cycle top in Q4 2025 in the range of $131,000 to $154,000 (based on halving cycles / market maturity), anticipating a September pullback to the 20-week SMA before the final rally.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 131000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-13", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604911074", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The next Bitcoin peak could fall somewhere between $131,000 and $154,000 ... anticipates a potential September pullback to the 20-week Simple Moving Average before a final rally to the projected top.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC reached $126,296 by the 2025-12-31 horizon β€” within 3.6% of $131,000 but short." }, { "claim_text": "On Dec 30, 2025 Cowen declared Bitcoin 'officially in a bear market' and said 2026 would be a bear-market year with no new all-time highs: 'I do think it's a bear market year. I don't think that Bitcoin is going to be hitting all-time highs in 2026.'", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-30", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605368644", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I do think it's a bear market year. I don't think that Bitcoin is going to be hitting all-time highs in 2026.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Full-2026 window still open (as_of 2026-06-30); bear thesis is tracking (BTC fell $88,398 to $58,161 with H1 high $97,964 well under the $126,296 ATH), but 'no new ATH in 2026' can't be finalized until year-end." }, { "claim_text": "Across early-to-mid 2026 Cowen maintained that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is NOT dead: the cycle topped in Q4 (Oct 2025) right on historical schedule (~day 1,162 after the prior bottom), and his base case is a cyclical low in October 2026 (~one year after the top, matching the 2014/2018/2022 midterm-year pattern).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-10-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-28", "specificity": 50, "citation": { "url": "https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/58783/benjamin-cowen-says-bitcoins-four-year-cycle-still-valid-next-bottom-in-october-2026", "source_type": "article", "quote": "this cycle has not deviated much from past patterns ... the cycle's peak occurred on day 1,162 after the prior bottom ... His base scenario projects a bottom in October 2026.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Two-part timing call: the Q4-2025 top is consistent with the facts (high_by_deadline only $74,462, far under the prior $126k ATH), but the predicted Oct-2026 bottom window (deadline 2026-10-31) has NOT elapsed as of 2026-06-30 and price is still falling ($58,161), so the bottom-timing is undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "On Apr 11, 2026 Cowen warned the bottom is not yet in, assigning ~75% probability the cyclical low is still ahead, pointing to October 2026 as the most likely timeframe and a balance-price target near $39,000 (BTC historically touching both realized price ~$54k and balance price ~$39k at cycle bottoms).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 39000, "deadline": "2026-10-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-11", "specificity": 74, "citation": { "url": "https://coinalertnews.com/news/2026/04/11/bitcoin-bottom-not-reached-analyst-warns", "source_type": "article", "quote": "maintains a 75% probability that the low is still ahead ... every cycle bottom has involved Bitcoin touching both levels (realized price around $54,000 and balance price near $39,000) ... October 2026 ... the most likely timeframe for a cycle bottom.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Window open (deadline 2026-10-31, as_of 2026-06-30); 'bottom not yet in / low still ahead' is tracking so far (price fell $73,086β†’$58,161) but the Oct-2026 / ~$39k target is undetermined and the $39k level ($39k vs low $58,000) has not been touched." } ] }, { "id": "bill-barhydt", "name": "Bill Barhydt", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 25, "score_adj": 25, "avg_specificity": 24, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 1, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bill Barhydt expects Bitcoin to consolidate in the $65k–$90k range, with a possible wick down to $55k, and believes the bottom is likely already in.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 65000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/A-Massive-Bitcoin-Bull-Case-Is-Forming--Bill-Barhydt-e3gl1gr", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think Bitcoin has kind of stabilized in that kind of 65 to 90K range... We may see a wick to 55, but I wouldn't be surprised if the bottom is in.", "timestamp": "0:02:06", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Traded inside the $65k-$90k band for a time (up to $82,814) but then broke below it to $58,000/$58,161, so the consolidation range failed and the 'bottom is in' thesis was wrong (price made fresh lows well under the $55k-wick floor expectation)." }, { "claim_text": "Bill Barhydt predicts Bitcoin will reach $250,000, expecting five to seven 30%-style pullbacks along the way to that target.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2021-02-19", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD312_-_Bill_Barhydt.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I fully expect five or six or seven on the way to 250,000, if not more. And so that's the small price that we have to pay, right, for being long Bitcoin as part of the transition.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-02-19 horizon; never reached $250,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bill Barhydt predicted Bitcoin will reach $1,000,000 per coin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2022-03-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD472_-_Bill_Barhydt.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think that Bitcoin is going to a million from a dollar price perspective. But at that point, it really doesn't matter what Bitcoin is worth in dollar terms, because you're going to have a whole group of people who basically do their kind of economic thought basis in Bitcoin.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2022-03-08); 2027-03-08 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "bill-miller", "name": "Bill Miller", "handles": { "x": "", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://millervalue.com" }, "category": [ "investor", "value-investor", "fund-manager", "bitcoin-bull" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 0, "as_of": "2026-06-24", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Miller_(investor)" }, "score": 100, "score_adj": 100, "avg_specificity": 23, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "I think that Bitcoin should probably be up 50% to 100% from here in the next 12 to 18 months ... if you were to ask me the over or under, I would definitely say it would be much more likely to be higher than lower.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2022-07-08", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-01-08", "specificity": 46, "citation": { "url": "https://www.ibtimes.com/bitcoin-price-prediction-100-surge-within-12-months-likely-bill-miller-says-3118931", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I think that Bitcoin should probably be up 50% to 100% from here in the next 12 to 18 months", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "From $40,665, +50%-100% implies $61k-$81k by ~Jul 2022; high_by_deadline was $69,000 (+69.7%), squarely in the predicted band and 'much more likely higher.'" }, { "claim_text": "I don't think this is a bubble at all in bitcoin, I think this is now the beginning of a mainstreaming of it (bitcoin's 2021 rally is the start of going mainstream, not a bubble).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-04-20", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.hedgeco.net/news/04/2021/bitcoin-rally-this-year-is-the-start-of-going-mainstream-not-a-bubble-says-investor-bill-miller.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Longtime value investor Bill Miller ... bitcoin is firmly entering into the mainstream, contending the cryptocurrency's rally in recent months is significantly different from its 2017 ascension and subsequent plunge.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Thesis 'not a bubble, start of mainstreaming' held: from $56,499 BTC went on to new ATHs ($69k then $126,296) with ETF/institutional adoption, not a 2017-style permanent bust; still above made-price at $58,161." } ] }, { "id": "bitcointina", "name": "BitcoinTINA", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 49, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 3, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 3, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $200,000–$300,000 by end of 2021.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-04-12", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487//traffic.libsyn.com/forcedn/whatbitcoindid/WBD333_-_American_HODL__BitcoinTINA.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think it's going to be, this year, $200,000, $300,000 by year end. I think you'll have some correction.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$200k-$300k by end-2021 never came close; high_by_deadline (Dec 31 2021) was only $69,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500,000–$700,000 in 2022.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": "2022-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-04-12", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487//traffic.libsyn.com/forcedn/whatbitcoindid/WBD333_-_American_HODL__BitcoinTINA.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think you'll have some correction. And then year after is going to be between $500,000 and $700,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$500k-$700k in 2022 never reached; high_by_deadline (Dec 31 2022) was $69,000 and BTC fell to $15,460." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $1,000,000–$1,200,000 in 2023.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2023-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-04-12", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487//traffic.libsyn.com/forcedn/whatbitcoindid/WBD333_-_American_HODL__BitcoinTINA.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Year after that, it's going to be $1 million to $1.2 million. And unless, you know, it goes to like $200,000 or $300,000 this year and goes to over a million next year, like million, million and a half,", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$1M-$1.2M in 2023 never reached; high_by_deadline (Dec 31 2023) was $69,000, off by ~15x." } ] }, { "id": "bluntz", "name": "Smart Contracter (Bluntz)", "handles": { "x": "@SmartContracter", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "trader", "technical-analyst", "elliott-wave" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 337700, "as_of": "2026-04-14", "source": "https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605364121" }, "score": 87.5, "score_adj": 87.5, "avg_specificity": 24, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 4, "counts": { "correct": 3, "wrong": 0, "partial": 1, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is in a 'max pain' sideways/range-bound chop expected to last roughly until late 2023, trading mostly between ~$17.5k and ~$25k, with a possible sweep of the ~$25k high and a 'sprinkle of capitulation' to a fresh low below $17.5k; he was not expecting either $28k upside or $12k downside to be hit.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2023-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-08-29", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://tradingview.com/news/cryptonews:850420287:0", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bluntz predicted Bitcoin would trade sideways for 12 more months within a range-bound environment ... not expecting $28,000 to the upside or $12,000 to the downside ... measured from a tweet posted August 29th.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Capitulation low below $17.5k did occur ($15,460) and $12k downside was not hit (correct), but the $17.5k-$25k range broke far to the upside β€” BTC exceeded $28k in 2023 (the level he said wouldn't be hit) and ran toward ~$45k, so the range/chop thesis failed." }, { "claim_text": "BTC is in a major Elliott wave-3 rally en route to $106,000, then a wave-4 pullback, then an explosion (wave 5) to $122,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 122000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2024-10-30", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://tradingview.com/news/cryptonews:850420287:0", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bluntz suggests that BTC is in the midst of a major wave three rally en route to $106,000 before a wave four pullback and an explosion to $122,000. At the time of the October 30, 2024 article, BTC was worth $72,624.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2024-10-30..2026-07-01], reaching the $122,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Forecasting BTC to end up at 130-150K (fifth-wave rally), pending further price action; expects a short-term pullback toward $80,000 first before resuming higher.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 130000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2024-11-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/16144377148601", "source_type": "x", "quote": "forecasting btc to end up at 130-150K atm pending further price action and how much the next few legs extend by. open to revision", "timestamp": "2024-11-11", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2024-11-11..2026-07-01], reaching the $130,000 target (within 2.8% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is entering a multi-year bear market (bull ran Dec 2022 to Jan 2025) likely lasting into ~2027, and could retrace ~55% from ~$80,000 down to around $36,000.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 36000, "deadline": "2027-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-04-08", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://en.coin-turk.com/trader-bluntz-predicts-significant-bitcoin-declines-and-market-trends/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin could retract by 55% from its current trading level of approximately $80,000, potentially falling to around $36,000 ... a bear market of similar duration could follow this rise ... this process may extend until 2027.", "timestamp": "2025-04-08", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Window open until 2027-12-31; after the call BTC first rallied to a new ATH ($126,296) before declining to $58,000/$58,161 β€” the ~$36k bear-market target is unreached and the multi-year-into-2027 outcome is undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "BTC channel could turn into a bear flag if it falters; leaning toward Bitcoin breaking down into a fresh new low, most likely wicking into the major 0.618 Fibonacci level around $51,299.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 51299, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605364121", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Not exactly a fan on this channel on BTC, could easily turn into a bear flag if it falters here ... I'm probably going to be leaning towards Bitcoin eventually breaking down here and pushing down into a fresh new low ... that will most likely wick into this major 0.618 level (around $51,299).", "timestamp": "2026-04-08", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted breakdown to a fresh new low; BTC did break down from $71,086 to $58,000/$58,161 β€” direction clearly materialized (the precise $51,299 Fib wick not yet touched, but the breakdown thesis came true)." } ] }, { "id": "bob-loukas", "name": "Bob Loukas", "handles": { "x": "@BobLoukas", "nostr": null, "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0zGwzu0zzCImC1BwPuWyXQ", "web": "https://4yearjourney.com/" }, "category": [ "cycle-analyst", "trader", "youtuber" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 384000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitterscore.io/twitter/BobLoukas/" }, "score": 59.4, "score_adj": 53.8, "avg_specificity": 46, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 16, "counts": { "correct": 8, "wrong": 5, "partial": 3, "pending": 3 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "I see no reason to doubt the 4-Year Cycle high is still ahead in mid/late 2025, at a 6-digit print.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-08-14", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/08/40418115/bitcoin-bulls-might-need-to-wait-till-december-in-murky-market-veteran-analyst-cautions", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I see no reason to doubt the 4-Year Cycle high is still ahead in mid/late 2025, at a 6-digit print.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "4-year-cycle high in mid/late 2025 at a 6-digit print: high_by_deadline (Dec 31 2025) was $126,296, a six-figure cycle top within the window." }, { "claim_text": "Bulls might need to wait through until the Dec weekly cycle low, a 9-month range β€” significant price action may not materialize until mid-September at the earliest, with range-bound trading extending into December.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-08-14", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/08/40418115/bitcoin-bulls-might-need-to-wait-till-december-in-murky-market-veteran-analyst-cautions", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bulls might need to wait through until the Dec weekly cycle low, a 9-month range.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted range-bound trading into Dec 2024; instead BTC broke out post-election, rallying from $58,691 to $108,389 by deadline β€” not a 9-month range." }, { "claim_text": "A doubling effect could send Bitcoin from its current range near $110,000 to as high as $150,000-$170,000 in the short term, with a delayed blowoff / double-cycle structure pushing the peak into a February or March 2026 top.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2026-03-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-06-27", "specificity": 68, "citation": { "url": "https://holder.io/news/bitcoin-delayed-blowoff-top-bob-loukas/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Loukas predicts Bitcoin could reach $150,000-$170,000 in the short term, given historical price doubling patterns ... a double cycle blowoff could delay the market peak to February or March 2026, extending the uptrend to 39-41 months.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$150k-$170k target never reached β€” high_by_deadline (Mar 31 2026) was only $126,296, and BTC sat at $58,161, no blowoff peak." }, { "claim_text": "I remain heavily inclined toward an imminent upside resolution into a cycle high during Q4; a doubling from the lows of the last few months β€” call it $105k β€” gets us up to $210k, with a pretty clear path to the $200,000 level by December (admittedly extremely optimistic).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-24", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:9ab2f997d094b:0-bitcoin-days-away-from-blowoff-or-cycle-top-veteran-analyst-warns/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "A doubling from the lows here in the last few monthsβ€”let's call it $105kβ€”gets us up to $210k ... getting to the $200,000 level by December, although it sounds extremely optimistic ... there is a pretty clear path to that possibility", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Path to $200k by Dec 2025 failed β€” high_by_deadline $126,296, far short of $200k; no Q4 cycle high to target." }, { "claim_text": "As deeply oversold as Bitcoin is, this weekly chart remains horrendous and feels like it's hanging on by a thread and readying for another big leg lower β€” price target around $49,000 per BTC.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 49000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/bob-loukas-calls-bitcoin-horrendous-on-weekly-chart-sets-49000-target", "source_type": "article", "quote": "As deeply oversold as Bitcoin is, this weekly chart remains horrendous and from a purely visual perspective, feels like it's hanging on by a thread and readying for another big leg lower. ... He also marked his price target for the leading cryptocurrency at around $49,000 per BTC.", "timestamp": "2026-03-02 15:45", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Leg lower did materialize ($68,832 down to $58,000) but the $49,000 target was never hit (low_since_made $58,000)." }, { "claim_text": "USD strength will put continued downward pressure on Bitcoin into end of 2026.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-20", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BobLoukas/status/2068340947952242869", "source_type": "x", "quote": "USD putting in its first higher low and high on the Weekly Cycle in a very long time. Possible major bottom.\n\nWould suggest more pressure for precious metals and bitcoin into end of year. Stocks don't care, for now,", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Window runs through end-2026 (not elapsed); BTC has slipped from $64,223 to $58,161 so far, consistent with the call but unresolved." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is near the end of a counter-trend bear market rally, with resistance around $85k-$88k.", "claim_type": "ceiling", "threshold_usd": 88000, "deadline": "2026-05-10", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-05", "specificity": 100, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BobLoukas/status/2051627961724305706", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin - Getting close now to the end of a natural counter trend move in a bear market. $85-$88k area. \n\nHowever, there is a difference to this move. Counter trend moves are typically stronger (impulse) and shorter duration, this move is more consistent with base building", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was $82,814, stayed at/below $88,000 (through 2026-05-10)." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin fails to produce a counter-trend rally, it could see a drop to sub-$50k by March/April 2026, potentially forcing an early 4-year cycle low.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": "2026-04-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-26", "specificity": 90, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BobLoukas/status/2027043531185943019", "source_type": "x", "quote": "If Bitcoin sees no counter-trend relief rally, and instead continues the downtrend to sub $50k (into March/April), the possibility this type of action induces an early 4 Year Cycle low is real.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's low was only $63,020 through the 2026-04-30 horizon; never fell to $50,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin needs to reclaim $72k before a meaningful counter-trend rally can begin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 72000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-02-17", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BobLoukas/status/2023793838322782454", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin price action remains horrendous. Very weak. \n\nAfter the recent flush out, a natural, sharp counter trend bounce would be expected, but was not forthcoming. \n\nHas to reclaim $72k to even consider a counter-trend move. \n\nJust bear market things.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-02-17..2026-07-01], reaching the $72,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin either found its 4-year cycle low in November 2022 or will find it around the next 60-day cycle low near January 5, 2023.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2023-01-05", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-11-27", "specificity": 76, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BobLoukas/status/1597005333628526595", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#bitcoin either found it's bear market (4yr Cycle Low) with this Nov low....or will do so on the next 60-day Cycle low, around the Jan 5th timeframe.\n\nGiven the contagion and loss of trust with recent events, leaning towards the early Jan lows.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Cycle low fell in the Nov-2022/Jan-5-2023 window β€” low_by_deadline $15,993 held as the floor; BTC never traded lower afterward." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin closes above $50k it will go straight to $60k; if it cannot recover, $40k is the next target; longer-term $100k is not far away.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2021-12-23", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BobLoukas/status/1474024632814612486", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#Bitcoin - Close > $50k, going str8 to $60k. Otherwise, if can't climb out here, $40k here we come. Widen focus > $100k not far away. ETH > $10k.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $52,100 through the 2022-09-23 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is likely to make a new all-time high before the end of October 2021.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2021-10-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-10-18", "specificity": 66, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BobLoukas/status/1450193147712229377", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Day 26 of the 60-day #bitcoin Cycle.\n\nConsolidating the early Cycle gains.\n\nIn theory, we need to spend more time (3-5 days) consolidating or a good dip first. That completes the first Half.\n\nEither way, new ATH looks in the cards before end of month.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "New ATH before end of Oct 2021 β€” high_by_deadline $66,999 exceeded the prior ~$64.9k April 2021 ATH within the window." }, { "claim_text": "In the declining phase, the typical script for Bitcoin is a move to around the $85,000 level before the bear trend resumes.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 85000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-04-23", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BobLoukas/status/2047315362807435656", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Typical script for Bitcoin in the declining phase is around the $85k level before resumption of the trend.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-04-23..2026-07-01], reaching the $85,000 target (within 2.6% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will sweep its April 2026 lows to trap bears, then rally to trap bulls.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-03", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BobLoukas/status/2018747997769904621", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin down $23,000 in less than 23 days. \n\nSweep the April lows to suck in bears. Then rally to suck in bulls. Nothing comes easy.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC did rally to suck in bulls (high $82,814) then collapsed to $58,000, but the sweep-then-rally sequence only partly matched the described structure." }, { "claim_text": "The recent move to $98,000 looks like a counter-trend rally; on month 38 of a 48-month average cycle, Bitcoin's bear market structure remains intact.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-30", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BobLoukas/status/2017256982743339269", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin 4 Yr Cycle update. \n\nOn month 38 of 48(avg). Closing 3rd month below the 10ma. About to close 4 red months in a row, not seen since 2018. Looking like the recent move to $98k was the counter-trend move. Clear divergence from all other assets.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Counter-trend/bear thesis played out β€” $98k move was a top; BTC barely ticked to $84,599 then fell to $58,000." }, { "claim_text": "A move to $107,000 for Bitcoin would not be surprising, though it would only mask underlying weakness.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 107000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-01-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BobLoukas/status/2011108172472467861", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$107k incoming for Bitcoin would be not be surprising at all.\n \nBut that only masks the weakness. Still no weekly swing after 8 weeks.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2026-01-13); 2026-10-13 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's key range remains unresolved and its behavior is classic bear market β€” the recent bounce is likely a counter-trend rally, not a new bull leg.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-08", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BobLoukas/status/2009274086724104376", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Key range for Bitcoin remains unresolved. Rejected and likely 60-day cycle high. \n\nBut maybe is enough upside action to suggest it's part of a general counter-trend rally underway. \n\nThat said, think this is classic bear market behavior. Esp considering equities at ATH's", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Counter-trend bear call correct β€” after a marginal higher high ($97,964) BTC dropped to $58,000, no new bull leg." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's cycle price low may already be in, but it will need 3-5 months of sideways base-building before the next cycle can launch.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-09", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BobLoukas/status/2064314527278068088", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The Bitcoin low could be in for the cycle, price wise only. Doesn't need deeper. \n\nBut I'd argue strongly it's going to need 3-5 months (sideways) to build a base from which the next Cycle can launch from.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicts BTC will trade sideways for 3-5 months (approximately September-November 2026) before the next bull cycle begins." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is at a ceiling of $18k in December 2022 with little upside expected until early January.", "claim_type": "ceiling", "threshold_usd": 18000, "deadline": "2023-01-05", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-12-02", "specificity": 100, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BobLoukas/status/1598749360455442432", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC completely decoupled. In its own world of hurt. DCG/Genesis issues still to resolve. Luckily, the Four Year Cycle wants to end, but the cleansing needs to complete. All other pieces in place.\n\nI expect little until early Jan. $18k seems like a ceiling for now.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC nudged to $18,385 in [2022-12-02..2023-01-05] β€” a minor break (within 2.1%) of the $18,000 ceiling." } ] }, { "id": "brad-mills", "name": "Brad Mills", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will recover and have a good year in 2023, mirroring the 2019 cycle recovery after the prior bear market bottom.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2023", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-01-19", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/SLP451-Dissecting-cRyPtO-Scams-and-Outlook-for-2023-with-Brad-Mills-e1tn8jp", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "if we repeat the same cycle that we had last time, what happened in 2019 was Bitcoin recovered. Bitcoin found a bottom. Bitcoin had a really good year. It was accumulation.", "timestamp": "0:06:54", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Commits to Bitcoin making a meaningful recovery and posting a good year in 2023 by analogy to the 2019 post-bear-bottom recovery; resolves true if Bitcoin ends 2023 significantly higher than its early-January 2023 level (~$16–21k)." } ] }, { "id": "brandon-quittem", "name": "Brandon Quittem", "handles": { "x": "@Bquittem", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://brandonquittem.com/" }, "category": [ "commentator", "essayist", "thesis-narrative" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 50000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/bquittem" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [] }, { "id": "brent-johnson", "name": "Brent Johnson", "handles": { "x": "@SantiagoAuFund", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://research.santiagocapital.com/about" }, "category": [ "macro_investor", "fund_manager", "dollar_bull", "btc_skeptic" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 326000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/santiagoaufund?lang=en" }, "score": 100, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin won't go to zero. Speaking about whether private cryptocurrencies vs government digital currencies replace the dollar, Johnson said it does not mean Bitcoin is going to zero.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-08-25", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.macrovoices.com/podcast-transcripts/1108-brent-johnson-why-you-can-t-ignore-the-us-dollar", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "It doesn't mean that Bitcoin is going to zero", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bitcoin did not go to zero β€” never near it; current price $58,161." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin Maxis who think governments around the world will end up 'bowing down' to Bitcoin as a private currency are 'just wrong'; Johnson expects government-backed digital currencies, not private crypto, to be the eventual digital monetary solution.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-08-25", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.macrovoices.com/podcast-transcripts/1108-brent-johnson-why-you-can-t-ignore-the-us-dollar", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "the Bitcoin Maxis, who think that governments around the world are going to end up bowing down to the this private currency, I think, I think it's just wrong.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended structural claim with no window β€” governments have neither 'bowed down' to BTC nor have CBDCs replaced the dollar; undetermined." } ] }, { "id": "brian-armstrong", "name": "Brian Armstrong", "handles": { "x": "@brian_armstrong", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.coinbase.com" }, "category": [ "executive", "exchange-ceo", "bitcoin-bull" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 2563823, "as_of": "2026-06-24", "source": "https://twtdata.com/brian_armstrong/" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": 50, "avg_specificity": 24, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 1, "pending": 3 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "I think we'll see $1M per bitcoin by 2030. Regulatory clarity is finally emerging, the US government is keeping a BTC reserve, there's a growing interest for crypto ETFs, among many other factors. (Not financial advice of course, it's impossible to guarantee)", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2030-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-20", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/08/20/coinbase-ceo-brian-armstrong-says-bitcoin-could-reach-usd1m-by-2030", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I think we'll see $1 million per bitcoin by 2030", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-08-20); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "I think over time we'll see Bitcoin get into the multiple millions price range.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-21", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://decrypt.co/302064/coinbase-ceo-bitcoin-worth-multiple-millions", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I think over time we'll see Bitcoin get into the multiple millions price range.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "\"Multiple millions\" over an open-ended \"over time\" horizon; high since made only $126,296 and current $58,161 β€” window not elapsed, outcome undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "My instinct is we probably have bottomed at this point, maybe at the sixty K number, but nobody can say for sure. (Posted as an X video amid the 2026 drawdown; he added he remains long BTC and expects significantly higher prices by 2030.)", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-15", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/15/coinbase-s-brian-armstrong-says-bitcoin-may-have-bottomed-at-usd60-000", "source_type": "article", "quote": "My instinct is we probably have bottomed at this point, maybe at the sixty K number, but nobody can say for sure.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-06-15..2026-07-01] β€” a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Brian Armstrong (Coinbase CEO, third-party quote) predicts Bitcoin has likely bottomed around $60K and will be at a much higher price by 2030.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2030", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-23", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/The-Truth-Behind-Bitcoins-Crash--And-What-Comes-Next---Bitcoin-Simply-e3l6r8u", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "my instinct is we probably have bottomed at this point, maybe at the 60K number, but nobody can say for sure, of course. I'm optimistic as always. I think by 2030, we're going to have a much higher, higher price. And I'm long Bitcoin, just like always.", "timestamp": "0:03:33", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claim resolves TRUE if Bitcoin price is meaningfully higher than ~$60K by end of 2030; this is a third-party quote from Brian Armstrong played on the show and attributed to him." } ] }, { "id": "brian-dixon", "name": "Brian Dixon", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's fair value based on multiple models (Metcalfe, logarithm, stock-to-flow, power law) is approximately $150,000–$250,000, meaning it is currently deeply undervalued and should reach that range.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-05", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Bitcoin-Could-Hit-10-MILLION--Heres-Why--Brian-Dixon-e3g016h", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "A lot of the models that we use, I would say they fall somewhere between 150 to 250,000 on average. It should be valued today. And so we didn't even in the last all-time high, we didn't even get to what you guys would consider fair value.", "timestamp": "0:15:52", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended fair-value claim that BTC \"should reach\" $150k–$250k; high since made only $82,814, never entered the band, but no window has elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Brian Dixon's firm's logarithmic scale model shows Bitcoin should currently be priced around $220,000–$240,000, indicating it trades at a significant discount to model fair value.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-05", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Bitcoin-Could-Hit-10-MILLION--Heres-Why--Brian-Dixon-e3g016h", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Our logarithmic scale model shows Bitcoin today, I think should be around 220 to 240 for a single Bitcoin. So we know it's trading significantly discounted today.", "timestamp": "0:16:12", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended model claim that BTC \"should be\" $220k–$240k; high since made only $82,814, far below the band, but no deadline/window has elapsed." } ] }, { "id": "brian-estes", "name": "Brian Estes", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin should be at least $500,000 and probably over $1 million.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2025-02-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/brian-estes-could-us-issue-bonds-backed-by-bitcoin-bitbonds-sbr-and-price-models-predicting-7-figure-bitcoin", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "The models are indicating that Bitcoin at a minimum should be $500,000, but it's probably going to be likely over a million.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-02-18); 2029-02-18 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "By 2030 Bitcoin could be worth anywhere from $8 million to $16 million.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 8000000, "deadline": "2030", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-02-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/brian-estes-could-us-issue-bonds-backed-by-bitcoin-bitbonds-sbr-and-price-models-predicting-7-figure-bitcoin", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And we will look at over five years and by 2030, the models are saying that Bitcoin could be worth anywhere from $8 million to $16 million.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Range $8M–$16M by 2030; deadline 2030 has not elapsed (high by deadline so far $126,296)." } ] }, { "id": "caitlin-long", "name": "Caitlin Long", "handles": { "x": "@CaitlinLong_", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://caitlin-long.com" }, "category": [ "banking", "regulation", "btc_advocate", "executive" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 250000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/CaitlinLong_" }, "score": 100, "score_adj": 100, "avg_specificity": 24, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "If the past is prologue, we'll have a big bull market next year (i.e. a big Bitcoin bull market in 2024), with Custodia positioned ahead of it and the Bitcoin halving coming in April.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-12-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/23/12/36141124/custodia-bank-ceo-caitlin-long-preps-for-2024s-bull-market-a-future-of-digital-assets-spot", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If the past is prologue, we'll have a big bull market next year", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a big 2024 bull market; BTC ran from $44,193 to $108,389 by the 2024-12-31 deadline β€” a clear bull market materialized." }, { "claim_text": "Expects Bitcoin to move up at some point, partially driven by the move in gold (\"gold goes first, Bitcoin runs hardest\").", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/4iJNXtEhENf9z6LfT3lt/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And also, like Larry says, gold goes first, Bitcoin runs hardest. I do expect at some point there to be a move in Bitcoin, partially because of this move in gold.", "timestamp": "0:24:49", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended \"at some point\" up-move expectation; so far BTC fell from $84,513 to $58,161 (high only $89,210), but the no-deadline window has not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Caitlin Long believes Bitcoin will eventually become a world reserve currency, completing the sixth network effect of financialization.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-23", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Why-The-Fed-Cant-Ignore-Bitcoin-Anymore--Caitlin-Long-e3fg7hm", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Sixth network effect, which is financialization headed towards world reserve currency. And I believe we will get there with Bitcoin.", "timestamp": "0:16:33", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claim commits to Bitcoin achieving world reserve currency status at some unspecified future point; resolves true if Bitcoin is formally recognized as a global reserve asset by major central banks or international bodies." } ] }, { "id": "cameron-winklevoss", "name": "Cameron Winklevoss", "handles": { "x": "@cameron", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://winklevosscapital.com" }, "category": [ "exchange-founder", "investor", "bitcoin-bull" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 751800, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/cameron" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 24, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "This is the last time you'll ever be able to buy bitcoin below $90k! (posted on X as BTC slipped to ~$90,743, implying sub-$90k prices would never be seen again)", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 90000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/last-time-youll-ever-be-able-to-buy-bitcoin-below-90k-cameron-winklevoss", "source_type": "x", "quote": "This is the last time you'll ever be able to buy Bitcoin below $90k!", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claimed sub-$90k would never be seen again; BTC fell to a low of $58,000 and trades at $58,161 β€” well below $90k repeatedly since." }, { "claim_text": "At the Bitcoin 2025 conference, Cameron argued that given BTC's fixed 21M supply versus the size of global asset markets, Bitcoin should eventually be valued at around $1 million per coin; he said 'Bitcoin at $100,000 is exciting' but framed it as far from the end ('this game is going to overtime'). Long-term target, no firm deadline.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2025-05-28", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.cryptotimes.io/2025/05/29/bitcoin-price-should-be-1-million-cameron-winklevoss/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin at $100,000 is exciting ... We're not just in the first inning β€” this game is going to overtime", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-05-28); 2030-05-28 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach a $10 trillion market cap (roughly $476K per coin) within the current decade, overtaking gold.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 476190, "deadline": "2030", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-04-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD329_-_Cameron__Tyler_Winklevoss.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "our view is it's going to hit 10 trillion within the decade and overtake gold. And that's a remarkable thing.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2021-04-02); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "camila-russo", "name": "Camila Russo", "handles": { "x": "@CamiRusso", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.camirusso.com/" }, "category": [ "journalist", "founder", "defi-commentator" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 61902, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://www.speakrj.com/audit/report/CamiRusso/twitter" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [] }, { "id": "cantering-clark", "name": "Cantering Clark", "handles": { "x": "@CanteringClark", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "trader", "technical-analyst" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 0, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/canteringclark" }, "score": 100, "score_adj": 100, "avg_specificity": 24, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Near Bitcoin's late-2021 all-time high, Cantering Clark said BTC could decline below $55,000 before continuing higher, naming the $55,000 and $65,000 zones as the only areas he would 'get really aggressive' as buy entries, while staying out of swing/positional trades until BTC reclaimed its all-time high.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 55000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-10-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://bitcoinworld.co.in/cantering-clark-says-bitcoin-may-decline-below-55000-after-dull-all-time-high/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Clark suggests Bitcoin could decline below $55,000. He identifies the $55,000 and $65,000 price ranges as prime areas for investors to consider entering the market. ... 'As far as swings go and meaningful deployment of capital, these are the only two areas where I would get really aggressive... If the drop scares you, just look back to a similar structure in February.' ... 'My positioning - Still out swings/positional trades until reclaim of ATH [all-time high] for BTC...'", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said BTC could decline below $55,000; it subsequently fell to a low of $15,460 β€” the sub-$55k decline call was realized." } ] }, { "id": "carl-runefelt", "name": "Carl Runefelt", "handles": { "x": "@TheMoonCarl", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.carl-runefelt.com" }, "category": [ "influencer", "youtuber", "trader", "perma-bull" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 1500000, "as_of": "2026-02-12", "source": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:736f5f8b6094b:0-one-metric-shows-crypto-is-now-in-a-bear-market-carl-the-moon/" }, "score": 40.9, "score_adj": 27.9, "avg_specificity": 16, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 11, "counts": { "correct": 3, "wrong": 5, "partial": 3, "pending": 9 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin does not hit $100,000 before the end of this year (2022) then I'll delete my Twitter.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2022-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-01-31", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://tittlepress.com/crypto/1524448/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If #Bitcoin does not hit $100,000 before the end of this year then I'll delete my Twitter…", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $48,240 through the 2022-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "I think that BTC is never going back down below $10,000.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 10000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2022-03-31", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptopotato.com/the-moon-carl-runefelt-bitcoin-will-never-go-below-10k-again-2022-interview/", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "I think that BTC is never going back down below $10,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's low was $15,460, held at/above $10,000 (through 2026-07-01)." }, { "claim_text": "It's very likely that Bitcoin is going way above a million dollars. I think that even $10 million is where BTC is going.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2022-03-31", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptopotato.com/the-moon-carl-runefelt-bitcoin-will-never-go-below-10k-again-2022-interview/", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "I would suggest that it's very likely that Bitcoin is going way above a million dollars. I think that even $10 million is where BTC is going.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2022-03-31); 2027-03-28 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Carl Runefelt's Bitcoin price target is $300,000 per coin by year-end (2025).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 300000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-04-11", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.ibtimes.com/this-tweet-got-ignored-january-now-its-most-accurate-market-call-2025-3769776", "source_type": "article", "quote": "His price target remains $300,000 per coin by year-end.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $300,000." }, { "claim_text": "He's still calling for a million-dollar Bitcoin in the next 5 years.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2030-04-11", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-04-11", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://www.ibtimes.com/this-tweet-got-ignored-january-now-its-most-accurate-market-call-2025-3769776", "source_type": "article", "quote": "He's still calling for a million-dollar Bitcoin in the next 5 years.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-04-11); 2030-04-11 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Crypto has already entered a bear market (assessed via collapsing crypto-YouTube view counts), and he is 50/50 on whether 2026 goes up or down.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-12", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:736f5f8b6094b:0-one-metric-shows-crypto-is-now-in-a-bear-market-carl-the-moon/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Crypto has already entered a bear market, claims influencer and entrepreneur Carl The Moon Runefelt. ... I'm actually like 50-50, either we go high, or we don't like, I'm very confused with 2026.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "\"Already in a bear market\" (and 50/50 on 2026); net down from $66,208 to $58,161, but it first rallied +25% to $82,814 β€” mixed." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is going to $6 million per coin eventually. This dip is temporary. Buy it.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 6000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-06-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.founderbounty.com/is-it-still-worth-investing-in-bitcoin-or-crypto-after-the-rally-with-carl-moon-runefelt/", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin is going to $6 million per coin eventually. This dip is temporary. Buy it.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $67,264 since 2026-06-06); 2031-06-06 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has hit the cycle bottom.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-25", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheMoonCarl/status/2070179841513824646", "source_type": "x", "quote": "THIS IS THE BOTTOM!!!", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called \"THIS IS THE BOTTOM\" at $59,704; BTC then made a lower low of $58,000 and sits at $58,161 β€” the called bottom was broken." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin bull market is starting now (June 16, 2026).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-16", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheMoonCarl/status/2066805910576541743", "source_type": "x", "quote": "BITCOIN BULL MARKET STARTING NOW !!!!!!", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Declared the bull market \"starting now\" at $65,617; BTC fell ~11% to $58,161 (high only $66,944) β€” no bull market started." }, { "claim_text": "BTC could go for another low before the bottom, representing peak capitulation.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-11", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheMoonCarl/status/2064997354869268530", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC could probably go for another low.\n\nThis'll be the peak capitulation before the bottom.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said BTC could go for another low before the bottom; from $63,563 it made a lower low of $58,000 β€” the predicted further low occurred." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will eventually reach $6 million per coin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 6000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-06-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheMoonCarl/status/2063304723743014956", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin is going to $6 million per coin eventually.\n\nThis dip is temporary.\n\nBuy it.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $67,264 since 2026-06-06); 2031-06-06 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The bull market will return in 2027.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2027", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-13", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheMoonCarl/status/2065849790324228154", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Crypto is underperforming everything else. \n\nBye bye boring crypto.\n\nI'm into racing now.\n\nSee you in the bull market in 2027.\n\nUntil then, I'm out.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bull-market-in-2027 window has not elapsed (as_of 2026-06-30); outcome undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $3 million.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 3000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-06-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheMoonCarl/status/2062491326327709915", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Michael Saylor will be fine.\n\nWhen Bitcoin goes to $3 million he will be the richest person on earth, after Satoshi.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $67,264 since 2026-06-04); 2032-06-04 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "BTC dips below its multi-cycle support then runs back up to new all-time highs.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-30", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheMoonCarl/status/2060678024161554803", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC is exactly at its multi-cycle support uptrend.\n\nMaybe we get a deviation below it to scare the last remaining bulls.\n\nThen it runs back up, turbo, to new highs.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Deviation below support happened (low $58,000) but the 'runs back up to new all-time highs' leg never came β€” high since made only $74,157 vs prior ATH ~$126K, and price sits at the low ($58,161)." }, { "claim_text": "BTC drops below $60,000 then pumps toward $300,000 this decade.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 300000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-05-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheMoonCarl/status/2052690108370067947", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC is doing exactly what Gold did in the 1970s.\n\nThis means a drop below $60,000 and then a pump towards $300,000 this d[ecade]", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,450 since 2026-05-08); 2031-05-08 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is going to $6 million.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 6000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-04-21", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheMoonCarl/status/2046672218319392810", "source_type": "x", "quote": "BITCOIN IS GOING TO $6M πŸ“’", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-21); 2032-04-21 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Over the next few weeks BTC grabs liquidity around $81K then flushes down to $70K-$72K.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 72000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheMoonCarl/status/2048727654984286248", "source_type": "x", "quote": "This is how $BTC could play out over the next few weeks.\n\n- Grab liquidity around $81K\n- Trap late longs\n- Liquidation flush to $70K-$72K", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Grabbed liquidity near $81K (high $82,814 from $77,364) then flushed down through the $70K-$72K zone (low $58,000)." }, { "claim_text": "BTC pumps to ~$75K, gets rejected, then drops to ~$66K.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 66000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-12", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheMoonCarl/status/2043283741083161030", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC has 2 decent liquidity clusters here.\n\nFirst, I expect a Bitcoin pump to $75K level.\n\nAfter that, BTC will likely get rejected and could drop all the way down to the $66K level before any bounceback.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Pumped past ~$75K (high $82,814 from $70,755) then dropped through the ~$66K level (low $58,000)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has bottomed.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-17", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheMoonCarl/status/2045177185250447508", "source_type": "x", "quote": "BITCOIN HAS BOTTOMED… You Already Missed It.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called the bottom at $77,098 but BTC fell well below to $58,000 (current $58,161)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has bottomed and will not fall to $30,000.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-06", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheMoonCarl/status/2029857172813738091", "source_type": "x", "quote": "My hairdresser just told me Bitcoin will fall to $30,000.\n\nTHIS. IS. THE. BOTTOM.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bottom call wrong β€” fell from $68,108 to $58,000 β€” but the specific '$30,000' floor he dismissed did hold (low only $58,000)." } ] }, { "id": "cathie-wood", "name": "Cathie Wood", "handles": { "x": "@CathieDWood", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "ark-invest.com" }, "category": [ "fund_manager", "institutional", "permabull" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 1920000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitterscore.io/twitter/CathieDWood/" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 9 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Cathie Wood said in a Bloomberg TV interview that bitcoin will go to $500,000 (per coin), reiterating her bullish target amid a sharp May 2021 crypto sell-off.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2021-05-19", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2021/05/19/ark-investments-cathie-wood-says-bitcoin-will-go-to-500000", "source_type": "article", "quote": "said in a Bloomberg TV interview that bitcoin will go to $500,000", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2021-05-19); 2027-05-19 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "ARK Invest's 'Big Ideas 2022' outlook predicted bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2030, with its market capitalization scaling more than 25-fold over the decade.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2030-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-01-25", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/01/25/cathie-woods-ark-invest-predicts-bitcoin-could-exceed-1m-by-2030", "source_type": "article", "quote": "ARK Investment Management predicted bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2030 ... in ARK's 'Big Ideas 2022' outlook report", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2022-01-25); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "After a 'horror year' for crypto, ARK Invest maintained its forecast that bitcoin would reach $1 million by 2030, with a bull case of $1.48 million, a base case of $682,800 and a bear case of $258,500 by 2030.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1480000, "deadline": "2030-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-02-01", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://fortune.com/2023/02/01/cathie-wood-ark-invest-report-bitcoin-to-hit-1-5-million-by-2030/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "ARK forecasted Bitcoin to bounce back from its current lows to eventually be worth $1.48 million by 2030", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-02-01); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "ARK Invest's 'Big Ideas 2025' report (published Jan 2025) laid out 2030 bitcoin price scenarios: bull case ~$1.5 million, base case ~$710,000, bear case ~$300,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1500000, "deadline": "2030-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-06", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsweek.com/cathie-woods-firm-predicts-bitcoin-price-could-surge-15mn-2030-2064348", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bull case: $1.5 million; Base case: $710,000; Bear case: $300,000", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-01-06); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "In a YouTube video, Cathie Wood said the odds of ARK's $1.5 million bitcoin bull case (by 2030) being correct had increased, citing the institutionalization of the asset class via spot ETFs.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1500000, "deadline": "2030-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-02-12", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-to-hit-1-5-million-by-2030-ark-invests-cathie-wood-says-odds-are-rising/", "source_type": "youtube", "quote": "Many people know us for our [Bitcoin] bull case, $1.5 million. We actually think the odds have gone up that our bull case will be the right number, because of what is becoming the institutionalization of this new asset class.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-02-12); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "On CNBC's Squawk Box, Cathie Wood lowered ARK's 2030 bitcoin bull-case target from $1.5 million to $1.2 million, citing stablecoins taking over payment/remittance roles previously expected of Bitcoin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1200000, "deadline": "2030-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-06", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/cathie-wood-lowers-bitcoin-2030-target", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "Stablecoins are usurping part of the role that we thought Bitcoin would play. Given what's happening with stablecoins, we could take maybe $300,000 off that bullish case.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $107,482 since 2025-11-06); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Cathie Wood predicts Bitcoin will reach $1.5 million by 2030, driven by institutional bank participation.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1500000, "deadline": "2030", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Can-Bitcoin-Hit-1-Million---Anthony-Pompliano-e3j7h97", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Kathy Wood thinks that Bitcoin is going to $1.5 million by 2030. Take a listen to why she says the banks were sitting on the sidelines, but now that they're participating, she thinks a million $10.5 million by 2030.", "timestamp": "0:01:47", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,379 since 2026-05-11); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "ARK's base case is Bitcoin reaching roughly $600,000-$650,000, with a bull case of $1 to $1.5 million by 2030.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2030", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-10-12", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/cathie-wood-on-investing-lessons-spot-bitcoin-etfs-1-million-bitcoin-and-what-drives-her", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And in there you see our building blocks to a six to six hundred and fifty thousand dollar price and perhaps one to one and a half million dollar price by 2030.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-10-12); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "ARK's bear case for Bitcoin is $258,000, base case $682,000, and bull case $1.48 million by 2030.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 682000, "deadline": "2030", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-10-12", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/cathie-wood-on-investing-lessons-spot-bitcoin-etfs-1-million-bitcoin-and-what-drives-her", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "The bear case is two hundred fifty eight thousand per Bitcoin. The base case six hundred eighty two thousand. And the bull case one point four eight million as your price target.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "ARK price targets are for 2030; window not elapsed (as_of 2026-06-30)." } ] }, { "id": "chamath", "name": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "handles": { "x": "@chamath", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "investor", "venture_capitalist", "podcaster" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 2000000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/chamath" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 60, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is probably going to $100,000, then $150,000, then $200,000 β€” within 5 to 10 years.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2031-01-07", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-01-07", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-price-to-reach-200000-predicts-social-capital-ceo-chamath-palihapitiya/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Where is it going? It's probably going to $100,000 to $150,000, then to $200,000. In what period – I don't know – 5 years, 10 years, but it's going there.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2021-01-07); 2031-01-07 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin repeats its post-third-halving (May 2020) performance after the April 2024 halving, it could reach roughly $500,000 (about $497,977) by October 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": "2025-10-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-05-31", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/billionaire-investor-chamath-palihapitiya-makes-case-for-bitcoin-to-500k", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin's price could top $500,000 by October 2025 if it follows the pattern exhibited by cycles two and three.", "timestamp": "All-In Podcast episode published 2024-05-31; segment begins ~53:00", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-10-31 horizon; never reached $500,000." } ] }, { "id": "charles-edwards", "name": "Charles Edwards", "handles": { "x": "@caprioleio", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "capriole.com" }, "category": [ "quant-fund-manager", "on-chain-analyst", "energy-value-model" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 133000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitterscore.io/twitter/caprioleio/" }, "score": 53.1, "score_adj": 18.4, "avg_specificity": 28, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 16, "counts": { "correct": 7, "wrong": 6, "partial": 3, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could reach $150,000 before year-end 2025 if institutional buying continues and BTC maintains levels above $120,000; \"I wouldn't be surprised if we went up to $150,000 in a pretty short time... potentially in the next days.\"", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-02", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604998025", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I wouldn't be surprised if we went up to $150,000 in a pretty short time, like we have to break out of the $120,000 range. But that's probably coming, potentially in the next days.", "timestamp": "2025-10-02 13:18", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's historical price floor will be $41,200 in just 5 months (i.e. by the April 2024 halving), because the halving doubles the electrical production cost overnight.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 41200, "deadline": "2024-04-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-11-29", "specificity": 74, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/27920591/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin's historical price floor will be $41,200 in just 5 months.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $37,500 in [2023-11-29..2024-04-30], below the $41,200 floor." }, { "claim_text": "A thread of on-chain signals suggest the Bitcoin bottom is in, or very close; described as 'an extraordinary opportunity' based on Bitcoin's 13-year history (Bitcoin Bottom Signal Series).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-12-06", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/bitcoin-bottom-is-in-seven-signals-say-analyst-charles-edwards", "source_type": "article", "quote": "A thread of on-chain signals which suggest the Bitcoin bottom is in, or very close.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Dec-2022 bottom call at $17,089 was right β€” low since only $16,273 then rallied to $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "The Bitcoin four-year cycle as previously known is dead: 'the primary driving force behind Bitcoin cycle 80-90% drawdowns historically is dead'; the 'miner-driven cycle is largely dead' due to post-halving supply growth falling to ~0.8%.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-15", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1043425-20250815", "source_type": "article", "quote": "In short – the primary driving force behind Bitcoin cycle 80-90% drawdowns historically is dead.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Structural 'no more 80-90% drawdowns' claim; cycle not over, and drawdown so far is ~54% ($126,296 to $58,000) β€” neither confirms nor falsifies an 80-90% drawdown." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's Macro Index is entering an expansion phase that historically precedes a major rally; identified next substantial resistance in the $58,000-$65,000 range provided ~$35,000 holds as support.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-11-15", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/27841919/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "could be a precursor to a remarkable surge in value, echoing the sentiments of the historic 400% bull run", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$35K support held (low $35,358) and a major rally followed to $126,296, far above the $58-65K resistance he flagged." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is 'closer to the bottom than the top', broadly within a value range; a weekly close above ~$71,500 would be a meaningful short-term bullish signal, while true 'deep value' sits in the ~$50,000-$60,000 production-cost band (low-to-mid $50,000s particularly attractive).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-13", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/charles-edwards-bitcoin-value-zone/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin I think you could summarize in a few words as it's close to the bottom than the top.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'Closer to bottom than top / deep value low-to-mid $50Ks' β€” from $70,944 BTC fell into his value band, now $58,161 (low $58,000), with prior ATH ~$126K far above." }, { "claim_text": "Above $71,500 it is 'hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin'; a monthly close above $71,500 would be Bitcoin's strongest technical monthly finish in a year, supported by long-term-holder accumulation, depressed SOPR, miner capitulation, and returning institutional buyers.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-15", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-near-bigger-breakout-capriole-founder/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Amongst this swathe of data (and more) it's hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bullish-above-$71,500 thesis failed β€” from $74,836 BTC dropped below $71,500 and kept falling to $58,000 (current $58,161)." }, { "claim_text": "Bump-and-Run Reversal bottom is back with a measured-move target of over $100,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2023-03-15", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/caprioleio/status/1635851147687907329", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Textbook perfect Bitcoin \"Bump & Run Reversal\" bottom is back and the target is over $100,000.", "timestamp": "2023-03-15T03:51:20.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2023-03-15..2026-03-15], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "After a strong $100K breakout, Bitcoin could reach $200,000 within 4-12 weeks, mirroring gold's $3.8T summer gain; \"it wouldn't be surprising to see $200K Bitcoin in 4-12 weeks from a strong $100K breakout.\"", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2025-02-20", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-28", "specificity": 100, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/caprioleio/status/1862225064739184862", "source_type": "x", "quote": "In just 16 weeks, Gold gained $3.8T this summer. Bitcoin from $100K to $200K is just $2T. So it wouldn't be surprising to see $200K Bitcoin in 4-12 weeks from a strong $100K breakout. After all, BTC is a superior, more liquid, fungible and divisible asset that trades 24/7.", "timestamp": "2024-11-28T20:00:28.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $109,358 through the 2025-02-20 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "Institutions are absorbing 500%+ of daily mined supply; in prior cases price averaged +24% over the next month, which from here \"would take us to around $96K.\"", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 96000, "deadline": "2026-06-04", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-04", "specificity": 100, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/caprioleio/status/2051150354990117119", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Institutions are slurping up 500%+ of Bitcoin's daily mined supply. Every time it's been this high before, price has shot up over the next week. The average return in prior cases is +24% over the next 1 month from here, that would take is to around $96K.", "timestamp": "2026-05-04T04:02:07.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $82,814 through the 2026-06-04 horizon; never reached $96,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will likely never make a new all-time high until Bitcoin Core takes the quantum-computing risk seriously.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-31", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/caprioleio/status/2038867772801950006", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin will likely never make a new ATH until Bitcoin Core takes Quantum risk seriously.", "timestamp": "2026-03-31T06:35:32.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "No new ATH occurred β€” high since made only $82,814 (vs prior ~$126k ATH) and price fell to $58,161, so the 'no new ATH' substance held; but 'never until quantum fix' is an open-ended absolute that can't be fully confirmed." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin closing below $60K this week would signal the start of real pain, implying $60K is a critical support floor.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-26", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/caprioleio/status/2070319194915381631", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Real pain begins if this week BTC closes under $60K.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-06-26..2026-07-01] β€” a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will likely never make a new all-time high until Bitcoin Core addresses quantum computing risk seriously.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-13", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/caprioleio/status/2061988716525338906", "source_type": "x", "quote": "RT @caprioleio: Bitcoin will likely never make a new ATH until Bitcoin Core takes Quantum risk seriously.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Same 'never a new ATH' call; high since made only $82,814, far below prior ~$126k ATH, and BTC fell to $58,161 β€” no new ATH made, so it held in fact, but the open-ended 'never' can't be fully resolved CORRECT." }, { "claim_text": "After Bitcoin breaks the $100K level, the next $100K move will likely happen in weeks rather than years.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-28", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/caprioleio/status/1862010738308694360", "source_type": "x", "quote": "It took 15 years for Bitcoin to get to $100K. When it breaks, the next $100K will likely happen in weeks.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC broke $100k and the next $100k came fast β€” high_since_made $126,296 reached within weeks of the late-2024 $100k break, exactly the 'weeks not years' timing claimed." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is bullish as long as daily closes remain above $71K, with conviction increasing on a weekly close above $71.5K.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 71000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-10", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/caprioleio/status/2042485373469933813", "source_type": "x", "quote": "As long as the daily keeps closing above $71K, I am bullish Bitcoin here. If this weekly closes above $71.5K, that will increase my conviction.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bullish-above-$71K thesis failed: from $72,998 BTC managed only $82,814 then broke down through $71K to a low of $58,000, ending at $58,161 β€” the bullish condition was lost and the move was down." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will spend months below its production cost of $59K before the bear market ends, based on historical precedent.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 59000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2026-02-28", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/caprioleio/status/2027643466155765912", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Production cost is $59K. We've never had a bear market which didnt spend _months_ below it.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-02-28..2026-07-01], reaching the $59,000 downside target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's on-chain heat signal at historically low levels implies at least a short-term recovery or a major price bottom is near.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-07", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/caprioleio/status/2020000575430279210", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin heater is firing. Every time it's been this low, we've either seen at least a few days of recovery or a major bottom.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Made 2026-02-07 at $69,245; BTC recovered to a high of $82,814 afterward, satisfying the 'at least a few days of recovery' floor of the claim." } ] }, { "id": "checkonchain", "name": "Checkonchain", "handles": { "x": "@_checkonchain", "nostr": null, "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/@checkonchain", "web": "https://www.checkonchain.com/" }, "category": [ "on-chain analyst", "newsletter author", "data/charts" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 129000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/_Checkmatey_?lang=en" }, "score": 100, "score_adj": 100, "avg_specificity": 37, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 3, "counts": { "correct": 3, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bottom formation is most likely within the 2024 'chopsolidation' range, somewhere between the mid-$50ks and $70k; base case is BTC trades below $80k then takes a quick trip toward $70k, with the 'point of maximum opportunity' below $70k.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 70000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-30", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/leaking-lower", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "From a technical, onchain, and probabilistic standpoint, almost every metric I track suggests bottom formation is most likely within the 2024 chopsolidation range, somewhere between the mid-$50ks, and $70k. ... I am of the view, that we enter the point of maximum opportunity below $70k. ... My base case at this stage, is that we likely trade below $80k, and then undergo a quick trip towards $70k, back-filling the air-pocket.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Base case played out: from $84,111 BTC traded below $80k and down to a low of $58,000 β€” into the mid-$50ks-to-$70k bottom-formation range called as the point of maximum opportunity." }, { "claim_text": "$95k is the price level that shifts the balance in favour of the bears (floor of 'The HODLers Wall'); a break below it means conditions deteriorate, with ~65% of invested USD holding a cost basis above this level.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 95000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/a-top-or-not", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "In my opinion, the price level which shifts the balance in favour of the bears is $95k, which is the floor of The HODLers Wall.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called $95k as the bear-tipping floor; BTC broke below $95k (from $99,615, high $104,050) and conditions deteriorated hard to $58,161 β€” the break-below signaled the downturn as stated." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is expected to form a bottom in the $50,000-$70,000 range during 2026, with a phase of sideways movement and 'price pain' (fear and pain, not good feelings) before an eventual parabolic rise.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 70000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-17", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/32569832/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "James Check expects Bitcoin to form a bottom pattern in the $50,000 to $70,000 range by 2026 ... True bottoms in Bitcoin are formed not by 'good feelings,' but by 'fear and pain.'", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Within the 2026 window BTC fell into the $50k-$70k range (low $58,000, now $58,161) amid fear/pain as predicted; bottom-range formation realized, though the later parabolic rise remains future." } ] }, { "id": "chris-klein", "name": "Chris Klein", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 78, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Chris Klein reaffirms his prediction that Bitcoin will reach $180,000 by the end of 2025, originally made in April when Bitcoin was at $75,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 180000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-20", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/180K-Bitcoin-In-2025--Heres-the-Case--Chris-Klein-e39q09n", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "You gave a price prediction of $180,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2025. We're sitting today somewhere $115,000, give or take. Do you think that we can go from $115,000 to $180,000 in, let's call it, two months? I think so.", "timestamp": "0:04:57", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $116,410 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $180,000." }, { "claim_text": "Chris Klein predicts that once Bitcoin breaks $130,000–$135,000 retail FOMO will kick in and send it to $150,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2025-10-20", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/180K-Bitcoin-In-2025--Heres-the-Case--Chris-Klein-e39q09n", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think you get into that. It's a psychological 130, 135, and all of a sudden you're off to the races to 150. And then from there, that's what the cycles do over time.", "timestamp": "0:06:24", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $116,410 since 2025-10-20); 2028-04-20 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "chris-nicholson", "name": "Chris Nicholson", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Chris Nicholson states that Bitcoin will be higher in value 10 years from now as part of his long-term bullish thesis on Bitcoin's adoption trajectory.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2035", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-06-25", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC7025843469.mp3?updated=1753848639", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I know that 10 years from now, Bitcoin is going to be higher. Maybe I don't know how high, but I just know in my bones, that it's going to be higher.", "timestamp": "0:40:42", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "10-year-out call (deadline 2035) is far from elapsed; BTC currently $58,161 below the $107,400 at-made price, so the outcome is undetermined within the open window." } ] }, { "id": "christian-keroles", "name": "Christian Keroles", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Christian Keroles predicted Bitcoin will reach approximately $26 million per coin within the next decade, representing full hyperbitcoinization based on a $500 trillion global store-of-value market divided by 21 million BTC.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 26000000, "deadline": "2032", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-03-30", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD482_-_CK.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitcoin is probably going to be like $26 million per coin in 10 years. We'll probably be at full hyper Bitcoinization. ...the global store of value market is conservatively $500 trillion. Divide that by $21 million, you're looking at $26 million per Bitcoin, right?", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2022-03-30); 2032-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "citibank", "name": "Citibank", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Citibank is calling for Bitcoin to reach $180,000 by the end of 2026.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 180000, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-20", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/STRC-CRASHES-TO-82--Is-THIS-The-End-for-Michael-Saylor--MicroStrategy---Simply-Originals-e3l2gh7", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "That's why Citibank is calling for 180k Bitcoin by the end of this year because they see the same setup.", "timestamp": "0:01:23", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $65,553 since 2026-06-20); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "coin-bureau-guy", "name": "Guy Turner (Coin Bureau)", "handles": { "x": "@coinbureau", "nostr": null, "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/@CoinBureau", "web": "https://coinbureau.com" }, "category": [ "youtuber", "crypto-educator", "analyst", "newsletter" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 1100000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/coinbureau" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": 66.7, "avg_specificity": 36, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Guy Turner / Coin Bureau: Bitcoin will likely end the year much higher than recent prices, with new all-time highs for BTC that could be 'closer to $100,000' by the end of 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-03-22", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/03/37893510/bitcoin-altcoins-ready-for-massive-gains-according-to-analyst", "source_type": "article", "quote": "This means new all-time highs for BTC that could be closer to $100,000 ... The fact of the matter is that BTC and altcoins will likely end the year much higher than their recent prices.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2024-03-22..2025-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Guy Turner / Coin Bureau: the cycle top for BTC usually occurs a year after it sets a new all-time high; if the pattern repeats, the cycle-top price for BTC should arrive sometime in late 2025.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinbureau.com/newsletters/coin-bureau-portfolio", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "the cycle top for BTC usually occurs a year after it sets a new all-time high. If the pattern repeats, we should see a cycle-top price for BTC sometime in late 2025.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Cycle-top-in-late-2025 timing missed: high_by_deadline $126,296 with low_by_deadline only $74,421 (no major top/crash in late 2025); the actual top and rollover to $58,161 came in 2026, after the window." } ] }, { "id": "cory-klippsten", "name": "Cory Klippsten", "handles": { "x": "@coryklippsten", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.swanbitcoin.com" }, "category": [ "bitcoiner", "executive", "btc-only" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 286000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/coryklippsten/" }, "score": 100, "score_adj": 100, "avg_specificity": 62, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 5 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "If I were placing a money bet, I would say that we'll see $75k before December 31 (2024). It wouldn't be a big deal if that was delayed into Q1.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 75000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-09-18", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-09-18/whats-next-bitcoin-price-how-btc-will-close-out-historic-year-cory", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If I were placing a money bet, I would say that we'll see $75k before December 31 ... But it wouldn't be a big deal if that was delayed into Q1", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2024-09-18..2024-12-31], reaching the $75,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "I think we'll have satoshi-cent parity, which means a million dollars a coin by 2030. It doesn't need any external catalyst other than continued growth and adoption.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2030-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-09-18", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-09-18/whats-next-bitcoin-price-how-btc-will-close-out-historic-year-cory", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I think we'll have satoshi-cent parity, which means a million dollars a coin by 2030", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-09-18); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "I expect to see Bitcoin at a million in the next five, six years (i.e. ~2030-2031), with Bitcoin and gold market caps crossing sometime in the second half of the 2030s.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2031-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-23", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-09-23/swan-bitcoin-ceo-calls-18b-crypto-wipeout-not-big-deal-reiterates-1m-price", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I expect to see Bitcoin at a million in the next five, six years", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-09-23); 2031-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "There is a very good chance that Bitcoin's famous four-year price cycles are over, killed by institutional adoption. If Bitcoin hits a new all-time high in 2026 or avoids a drawdown of more than 70%, it would show the four-year cycle is finished; the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 changed the game.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:1e6ccd61a094b:0-crypto-carnage-is-bitcoin-s-4-year-cycle-over-trade-secrets/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "There is a very good chance that Bitcoins famous four-year price cycles are over, killed by institutional adoption", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Four-years-over thesis hinges on no new ATH AND no >70% drawdown through 2026-12-31; window still open β€” no new ATH yet (high $97,964) and drawdown to $58,000 is ~54% from ~$126k, not yet >70%, so undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "There is a more than 50% chance Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high in 2026, with prices potentially moving above $125,000. (Stated on CNBC; described $85k-$91k chop as consolidation, not weakness, and said 'it's hard to imagine a steep collapse from here.')", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 125000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-26", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605124045", "source_type": "article", "quote": "he estimates there is more than a 50% chance Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in 2026, with prices potentially moving above $125,000", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-12-26); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Revised odds of a new all-time high in 2026 down to '20 or 25%' after BTC fell from ~$95,000 to the $60,000 range (down from roughly 50% earlier in the year when BTC was near $95k).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": 126296, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-27", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/swan-bitcoin-ceo-cuts-ath-odds", "source_type": "article", "quote": "20 or 25% chance that we get a new [high]", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Low-odds (20-25%) of a new ATH in 2026; window open through 2026-12-31 and high since is only $76,034 (far from ~$126k ATH), so not yet determined." } ] }, { "id": "credibull-crypto", "name": "CrediBULL Crypto", "handles": { "x": "@CredibleCrypto", "nostr": null, "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/c/CredibleCrypto", "web": "https://www.credibullcrypto.com/" }, "category": [ "trader", "analyst", "technical-analysis" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 433330, "as_of": "2024-11-04", "source": "https://blockonomi.com/crypto-analyst-bitcoin-to-hit-74000-before-correction-phase/" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": 44.4, "avg_specificity": 25, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 11, "counts": { "correct": 5, "wrong": 5, "partial": 1, "pending": 7 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin can move above $17K before the end of 2022; BTC is holding the 16.3K-16.5K range and BTC dominance has begun moving up.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 17000, "deadline": "2022-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-12-22", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://coingape.com/bitcoin-price-prediction-btc-price-100k-2023/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "CredibleCrypto in a tweet on December 22 predicts the Bitcoin price can move above $17K before the 2022 end. He asserts that Bitcoin is holding the 16.3K-16.5K range and BTC dominance has begun moving up.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC never reached $17K before end-2022; high_by_deadline was only $16,967 from $16,816 spot." }, { "claim_text": "Bullish scenario: if BTC holds $16.5K support, first target $17.3K, then break $18K resistance to rally toward $19K; remains bullish on Bitcoin rising over $19K in the short term.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 19000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-12-17", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coingape.com/bitcoin-price-prediction-is-19k-still-possible-or-btc-to-fall-below-15k/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "CredibleCrypto in a tweet on December 17 shared two scenarios for Bitcoin (BTC) price as it tagged the $16.5K support level again. He remains bullish on Bitcoin price rising over $19K in the short term.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Short-term targets $17.3K/$18K/$19K not hit in the near window; BTC topped ~$16,967 into year-end, only reaching those levels much later in 2023." }, { "claim_text": "If BTC rallies to 100k+ in a relatively short period of time, you must accept that there will be an equally aggressive correction that follows (Newton's third law applied to markets).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-12-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://bitcoinist.com/rough-days-ahead-for-bitcoin/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "to 100k+ in a relatively short period of time then you must accept that there will be an equally aggressive correction that follows", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Conditional held: BTC rallied to 100k+ (high $126,296) and was followed by an aggressive correction back to ~$58,161." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach ~$74,000 (its prior all-time high) before a substantial correction, and after that correction will move past $100,000 in the largest, most aggressive wave to the upside of the cycle.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2024-11-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://moneycheck.com/bitcoin-price-analysis-74000-target-before-correction-phase/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin will reach $74,000 before experiencing a substantial market correction. ... Bitcoin could move past $100,000", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2024-11-04..2026-07-01], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's Elliott Wave structure projects the larger-impulse fifth wave at a peak price target of $200,000, with the bullish count valid as long as BTC holds the $74,445 high-timeframe invalidation level.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2025-10-24", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://bitcoinist.com/understanding-this-bitcoin-structure/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "projected the larger-impulse fifth wave at a peak price target of $200,000", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $116,410 since 2025-10-24); 2028-04-24 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will see near-term relief to just over $70,000 before potentially rejecting back to range lows.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 70000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CredibleCrypto/status/2065743233393610974", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Not much has changed here, still think most logical outcome on $BTC for now is relief to just over 70k into our newly formed supply zone. A subsequent rejection and fall back down to our range lows would explain the type of PA I'm expecting on alts like $XRP", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $67,264 since 2026-06-13); 2027-03-13 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's macro bottom is in and BTC is approaching the 80–100k resistance zone where a rejection is the most logical near-term outcome.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-01", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CredibleCrypto/status/2050250853890822165", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Just barely avoided our \"local inval\" on the last move down and now approaching local highs again.\n\nI do think our macro bottom is in.\n\nHowever I also recognize that we are approaching the most logical HTF zone for a rejection now (80-100k) and without clearly impulsive PA it's", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Rejection in the 80-100k zone came true (high $82,814 then collapse), but 'macro bottom is in' failed as price fell to $58,000, far below the $78,234 spot." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's weekly RSI touching 40 is a bullish signal that has held 8/8 times historically, suggesting the bull market continues rather than ending in a secular bear.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CredibleCrypto/status/2051207293421879789", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Looking like the 40 RSI level will nail it again. \n\nThat makes it 8/8 or 100% success rate since Bitcoin's inception.\n\nAt some point this will fail (during the next secular bear market most likely), but I don't think that time is now.\n\n$BTC", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "RSI-40 bullish call failed this time: from $79,852 spot BTC dropped ~27% to $58,000, no bull-market continuation." }, { "claim_text": "After taking local lows, Bitcoin is expected to push toward approximately $80,000 to fill a local price inefficiency.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-05-17", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CredibleCrypto/status/2056161436850622792", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Lows taken βœ…\n\nNow let's see if we can push to around 80k-ish to hit that local inefficiency...", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $78,570 in [2026-05-17..2026-07-01], reaching the $80,000 target (within 1.8% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is approaching the $70,000–$73,000 zone where buyers are expected to step in and provide support.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 70000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-05-28", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CredibleCrypto/status/2059826850822824223", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I wouldn't say $BTC is looking strong OR weak right now- it's just more chop/ranging PA like we've been seeing since the Feb lows.\n\nWe took both downside liquidity targets and are now approaching the 70-73k zone where I would LIKE to see some buyers step in- but ultimately, this", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $57,718 in [2026-05-28..2026-07-01], below the $70,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "BTC is ready to clear local range highs and head to 80k+.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-03-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CredibleCrypto/status/2033631038535090363", "source_type": "x", "quote": "We had another initial rejection at our local range highs but we are now attacking it for the third time and it looks like we may finally be ready to clear it and head for 80k+.\n\nThis would coincide nicely with the $ETH move to $2800-$3000 mentioned in my last post.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-03-16..2026-07-01], reaching the $80,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "BTC can move from 100k to 150k+ in less than three months and do it this year.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CredibleCrypto/status/2014450430973972984", "source_type": "x", "quote": "It can def do it this year.\n\nWe already went from 50k-100k in 3 months and by definition the rate of ascent of a parabolic move/blow off top should be faster than any rise prior- which means the move from 100k to 150k+ should happen in less than 3 months, once we break out and", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $91,147 since 2026-01-22); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's blow-off top this cycle reaches at least 150k, with 200k+ a reasonable final target.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2025-12-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CredibleCrypto/status/2002999647309304310", "source_type": "x", "quote": "150k+ is my current minimum expectation for the blow off for this cycle, but 200k+ (but below 300k) is also very reasonable as a final target imo. \n\nWill know more as PA continues to develop.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-12-22); 2028-06-22 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's cycle top will not exceed roughly 300k.", "claim_type": "ceiling", "threshold_usd": 300000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2025-12-21", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CredibleCrypto/status/2002646499440689565", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I often get asked where my \"no more than 300k\" idea comes from for the top of $BTC this cycle. \n\nIt comes from the idea shared in the tweet below from 2019, which demonstrates that every subsequent cycle on $BTC since inception has had diminishing returns from top to bottom", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was $97,964, stayed at/below $300,000 (through 2026-07-01)." }, { "claim_text": "As long as 74k holds, BTC makes a new all-time high above 126k.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 126000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2025-12-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CredibleCrypto/status/1999216294491832729", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Nothing has changed on HTF. \n\nAs long as 74k holds (which I expect it to) 126k+ aka new ATH is still my primary expectation.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-12-11); 2026-12-11 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "BTC has at least one more leg up to 100k+ as long as it holds above the 83.9k lows.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2025-12-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CredibleCrypto/status/1999193774224998571", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Think $BTC looks good for at least one more leg up to 100k+ as long as it holds above the lows at 83.9k. \n\nWill be back to home base in a few more days and will have more detailed updates soon.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $97,964 in [2025-12-11..2026-07-01], reaching the $100,000 target (within 2.0% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "BTC will not trade below 74k; he remains HTF bullish.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 74000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2025-11-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CredibleCrypto/status/1994125406950313996", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Because I remain HTF bullish here and don't think we will see below 74k, I personally think that red zone", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-11-27..2026-07-01], below the $74,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will chop further but ultimately make new all-time highs.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CredibleCrypto/status/2071630407712535026", "source_type": "x", "quote": "If total supply being HODL'd wasn't the highest it has ever been, I'd say yes. \n\nBut in this case I think the more likely outcome is some further chop from $BTC (but ultimately new all time highs) and the beginning of some level of alt-coin", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Resolve by checking whether BTC made a new all-time high after this post, following a period of chop." } ] }, { "id": "crypto-rover", "name": "Crypto Rover", "handles": { "x": "@rovercrc", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "influencer", "trader", "technical-analyst" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 1300000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://iq.wiki/wiki/crypto-rover" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": 50, "avg_specificity": 84, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "My targets for the coming 4-6 months: $BTC $55k-$65k $ETH $2.8k-$3.2k", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 55000, "deadline": "2024-06-19", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-12-19", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/1588318320825", "source_type": "article", "quote": "My targets for the coming 4-6 months:$BTC $55k-$65k$ETH $2.8k-$3.2k", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $73,836 in [2023-12-19..2024-06-19], reaching the $55,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin might hit a new all-time high of $120,000 during the first three months of 2025 (Q1 2025).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 120000, "deadline": "2025-03-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-02", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptopotato.com/interesting-bitcoin-btc-predictions-for-2025/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Crypto Rover and Doctor Profit were among those weighing in. The former speculated that BTC might hit a new ATH of $120,000 during the first three months of the year.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $109,358 through the 2025-03-31 horizon; never reached $120,000." } ] }, { "id": "crypto-tony", "name": "Crypto Tony", "handles": { "x": "@CryptoTony__", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "trader", "technical-analyst" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 567700, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://tradersunion.com/persons/crypto-tony/" }, "score": 83.3, "score_adj": 78.7, "avg_specificity": 29, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 9, "counts": { "correct": 7, "wrong": 1, "partial": 1, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Weekly close above $123,000; bulls must now hold this level for sustained bullishness (posted on the day BTC printed its all-time high; level was NOT held β€” BTC reversed and fell hard).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": 123000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:75d72430b094b:0-btc-october-price-breakout-odds-low-5-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "$BTC / $USD - Update. Weekly closed above $123,000. Now the bulls must hold this level for that sustained bullishness.", "timestamp": "2025-10-06", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bulls did not hold $123K; after spot $124,720/high $126,296 BTC reversed and collapsed to $58,000, invalidating the sustained-bullishness thesis." }, { "claim_text": "Stopped out of short in profit after the recovery; now looking for new shorts into the $106,000-$108,000 resistance zone (bearish lean β€” expecting rejection / downside from those levels).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-17", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:53c1f6e1a094b:0-btc-price-bull-market-lost-5-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "$BTC / $USD - Update. Very nice recovery last night. I was stopped out of my short in profit. Now i am now looking for shorts up at key levels. $106,000 - $108,000 look attrative", "timestamp": "2025-11-17", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bearish lean played out: BTC never reclaimed the $106-108K short zone (high $97,964) and fell hard from $92,101 to ~$58,161." }, { "claim_text": "BTC closed the weekly candle over $104,500 β€” a very good sign; just needs to hold over now (bullish continuation read).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-06-16", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:ad9dcbf5f094b:0-112k-btc-was-not-bull-market-peak-5-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Closed the weekly over $104,500, which is a very good sign. Just need to hold over now", "timestamp": "2025-06-16", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bullish continuation held: after closing over $104,500 (spot $106,853) BTC continued higher to $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "2026 could be the last year to buy Bitcoin under $60,000.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-26", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoTony__/status/2070452761632899263", "source_type": "x", "quote": "This year could be your last chance to buy Bitcoin under $60k", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-06-26..2026-07-01] β€” a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has not yet bottomed and expects another leg down after the current relief rally.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-26", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoTony__/status/2070601763388903553", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Overall I am loving these relief waves and I think they go on for a few more days\n\nOverall though I do not think we have bottomed yet.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Another leg down materialized: BTC fell from $60,003 spot to current $58,161 (low $58,056), no bottom yet." }, { "claim_text": "If BTC reclaims $60,600 it will advance toward $61,000 and $61,900.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 61900, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-26", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoTony__/status/2070406708380176775", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC / $USD - Update \n\n$60,600 reclaim and we good for advances up to $61,000 and $61,900", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $60,839 in [2026-06-26..2026-07-01], reaching the $61,900 target (within 1.7% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will flush toward $60,000-$61,000 at some point over the next couple of days.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": "2026-06-24", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-22", "specificity": 100, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoTony__/status/2068965209893736763", "source_type": "x", "quote": "A flush at some point over next couple days towards $60,000 - $61,000 would be", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Flush into the band occurred by deadline: BTC dropped from $63,951 through $60,000-$61,000 to a $59,011 low_by_deadline." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will test the $61,000 lows and sweep them.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 61000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-23", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoTony__/status/2069409893174370365", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC / $USD - Update \n\nCurrently at my first target on the drop, but ultimately the lows at $61,000 will be swept IMO.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-06-23..2026-07-01], reaching the $61,000 downside target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will test $63,200 in the near term.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 63200, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-24", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoTony__/status/2069673124392583438", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC / $USD - Update \n\n$63,200 test is coming. Now if we reclaim into support then we can argue a case to long scalp up to $63,700 to begin. If we test and reject, then i will be looking to short", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $63,156 in [2026-06-24..2026-07-01], reaching the $63,200 target (within 0.1% β€” near-miss counted)." } ] }, { "id": "cryptocred", "name": "CryptoCred", "handles": { "x": "@CryptoCred", "nostr": null, "youtube": "Technical Roundup (TechnicalRoundup)", "web": null }, "category": [ "trader", "ta_educator" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 454000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://awisee.com/blog/crypto-day-traders-twitter/" }, "score": 100, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "After a swing failure at highs, BTC is likely to move to the opposite range extreme, implying a drop toward the low end of the range from ~$125k.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-07", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoCred/status/1975611221630996867", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC\n\nVicious swing failure at the highs.\n\nBuyers were absorbed and trapped.\n\nLogically, being completely reasonable, the first level of support is the middle of the range at $69,000.\n\nBut typically failure on one side signals a move to the opposite extremity.\n\nThat would be a", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Swing failure at highs led to the opposite extreme: after high $125,226 BTC collapsed to ~$58,000, well below the $69,000 mid-range." } ] }, { "id": "cryptosrus", "name": "George Tung (CryptosRUs)", "handles": { "x": "@CryptosR_Us", "nostr": null, "youtube": "CryptosRUs", "web": "https://cryptosrus.com" }, "category": [ "youtuber", "analyst", "influencer" ], "followers": { "platform": "youtube", "count": 806000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://us.youtubers.me/cryptosrus/youtuber-stats" }, "score": 75, "score_adj": 70.4, "avg_specificity": 76, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 0, "partial": 1, "pending": 3 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "George Tung, host of CryptosRUs, said there's a 'really good shot' Bitcoin could break $100,000 by year's end (2024).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-08-30", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/could-bitcoin-hit-150k-2024-224205734.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "George Tung, host of CryptosRUs, stated there's \"a really good shot\" Bitcoin could break $100,000 by year's end.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2024-08-30..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "George Tung expects Bitcoin to peak between $200K and $300K in this (current) cycle.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2025-05-31", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/05/31/top-bitcoin-analyst-george-tung-says-xrp-can-realistically-reach-8-to-10/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Notably, he expects Bitcoin to peak between $200K and $300K in this cycle.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-05-31); 2027-11-28 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The traditional four-year crypto cycle (long crypto winter then a parabolic blow-off top) is probably gone; markets are now following more of a business cycle, even though a halving still happens every four years.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-24", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-wolf-of-all-streets/bitcoins-2026-rally-has-a-major-problem-no-ones-talking-about-it-george-tung", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "This traditional cycle that we have followed for so many years, you have two and a half years of crypto winter, and then you have slow recovery, and then you have a very parabolic rise at the end. I think that cycle that we're all used to is probably gone, right?", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Broad multi-year structural thesis (four-year cycle is gone) with no defined window; not determinable from a 5-month price path (89k to 58k)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has more upside ahead and is headed back toward roughly $80,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-05-30", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptosR_Us/status/2060611206268727570", "source_type": "x", "quote": "OVER $3.5B IN BITCOIN ETF OUTFLOWS OVER 3 WEEKS - LIQUIDITY SWEPT THE DOWNSIDE \n\nThe pressure has now flipped. \n\nPressure map shows more upside to ~$80K. \n\nTrack it live πŸ‘‰", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $74,157 since 2026-05-30); 2027-02-28 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will sweep liquidity down to about $75,000 and then rally on the next leg up into month end.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 75000, "deadline": "2026-05-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-23", "specificity": 90, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptosR_Us/status/2058060812791509331", "source_type": "x", "quote": "πŸ“ŠBTC LOOKS READY TO SWEEP $75K LIQUIDITY\n\nBetter to flush it now and get it over with. Clear the lows, reset, then target the larger overhead liquidity pool into month end.\n\nThe dip is the setup for the next leg up bitcoin:native", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Two-part call within May window: BTC did flush toward the $75K liquidity (low_by_deadline $72,364, sweeping below $75K) but the predicted rally 'next leg up into month end' failed β€” high_by_deadline only $78,015, barely above the $76,650 spot, and it later collapsed to $58,000. Flush hit, rally didn't." } ] }, { "id": "cz-binance", "name": "Changpeng Zhao (CZ)", "handles": { "x": "@cz_binance", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.binance.com" }, "category": [ "exchange-founder", "crypto-executive", "investor" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 11000000, "as_of": "2026-04-20", "source": "https://u.today/binances-czs-reaction-to-11-million-followers-on-x-raises-concerns-is-crypto-full-of-bots" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 19, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 2, "partial": 0, "pending": 3 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could climb to anywhere between $500,000 and $1 million this cycle, with total crypto market cap reaching $5 trillion by year-end; '$500,000 is probably a safer bet in the midterm.'", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2025-05-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.theblock.co/post/353231/binance-cz-bitcoin-500000-1-million-crypto-market-cap-5-trillion", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin could climb to anywhere between $500,000 and $1 million this cycle ... He didn't offer a specific timeline for the cycle.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-05-06); 2027-11-06 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could hit a million bucks in the next few years; 'half a million to a million, it's not crazy when you think about the supply cap and demand.'", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2025-05-07", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/binance-founder-cz-predicts-bitcoin-could-hit-peak-between-500k-1-million-as-institutional-adoption-grows-202505071723", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "Bitcoin could hit a million bucks in the next few years, I'm not kidding...Half a million to a million, it's not crazy when you think about the supply cap and demand.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-05-07); 2027-11-07 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Posted on X a mock future headline: 'Waiting for the new headline: #Bitcoin \"CRASHES\" from $1,001,000 to $985,000' β€” hinting BTC will reach ~$1 million 'over time' (echoing his 2020 $100K hint that later played out).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2025-02-25", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://thenewscrypto.com/binance-founder-cz-tweets-futuristic-bitcoin-prediction/", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Waiting for the new headline: #Bitcoin \"CRASHES\" from $1,001,000 to $985,000.", "timestamp": "2025-02-25", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-02-25); 2029-02-25 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will probably break its historic four-year cycle this year and enter a 'supercycle' in 2026, driven by US pro-crypto policy and other countries following suit: 'I have very strong feelings it will probably be a supercycle in 2026 for Bitcoin.'", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-23", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/01/23/binance-s-changpeng-zhao-says-bitcoin-will-break-the-four-year-cycle-this-year", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "normally bitcoin follows four year cycles [...] but I think this year given the U.S. being so pro-crypto and every other country is kind of following ... We will probably break the four year cycle. I have very strong feelings that there will probably be a supercycle (this year).", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a 2026 'supercycle' breaking the four-year cycle; instead BTC fell from $89,475 to $58,161 (low $58,000), down ~35% on the year β€” a cyclical bear, the opposite of a supercycle, with the window nearly elapsed and no upside." }, { "claim_text": "Amid BTC's drop to ~$60K, CZ urged calm: 'Bitcoin won't be \"dead\" for too long. Don't panic, in large friendly letters.' He called the ~$60K level a normal cyclical winter driven by 'mass psychology,' still 3-4x above the 2022 ~$16,000 low β€” implying recovery (a directional/recovery call).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-09", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:6096e612b094b:0-bitcoin-obituaries-keep-coming-cz-isn-t-buying-it/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin won't be 'dead' for too long. Don't panic, in large friendly letters.", "timestamp": "2026-06-09", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Recovery/'won't be dead for long' call from $61,686; BTC instead kept falling to $58,161 (low $58,000) as of as_of, a fresh local low β€” no recovery materialized." } ] }, { "id": "daan-crypto", "name": "Daan Crypto Trades", "handles": { "x": "@DaanCrypto", "nostr": null, "youtube": "Daan Crypto (@DaanCrypto)", "web": null }, "category": [ "trader", "ta_educator" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 400000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-tipped-for-q3-macro-bottom-near-50k-as-major-liquidity-grab-looms" }, "score": 80.8, "score_adj": 93.8, "avg_specificity": 15, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 13, "counts": { "correct": 10, "wrong": 2, "partial": 1, "pending": 4 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will double its value by 2025 (from roughly $70K at the time of the May 2024 interview, implying a target near ~$140K).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 140000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-05-21", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://medium.com/@DailyLedger/bitcoins-2x-increase-will-lead-to-4x-growth-of-stacks-in-2025-daan-crypto-trades-x-hall-of-flame-72ed14b5ecaa", "source_type": "article", "quote": "His prophecy? Bitcoin will double its value by 2025. And Stacks? It won't just double or triple, but quadruple baby.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted BTC doubles by end-2025 (~$140K from ~$70K); it reached high_by_deadline $126,296 β€” ~80% up, just shy of a literal double but the directional/near-doubling call clearly came true with a massive rally." }, { "claim_text": "With BTC chopping around $100K in early January 2025, a break above the $98,000 mark could 'get the party started and start the run back to the all-time highs.'", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 98000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/bitcoin-peak-yet-to-come-analysts-share-2025-bull-market-predictions/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "A break above the $98,000 mark could 'get the party started and start the run back to the all-time highs,' while maintaining the $95,000 support zone as crucial short-term.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Break above $98K to 'start the run back to all-time highs' β€” from $98,210 BTC rallied to a new ATH of $126,296, confirming the run to all-time highs." }, { "claim_text": "With BTC near $91K, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement zone is the line bulls must defend; a breakdown could send BTC back to April lows near $76,000 β€” 'pretty much the last major support before testing the April lows again, which would break this high time frame market structure.'", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 76000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-tests-key-fibonacci-support-082238340.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "It's also pretty much the last major support before testing the April lows again, which would break this high time frame market structure.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Warned a breakdown could send BTC back to April lows near $76K; from $90,654 it broke down and fell well below $76K (low $58,000), exactly the bearish scenario described." }, { "claim_text": "In late May 2026, with BTC failing to reclaim the low-$80Ks, Daan warned of 'another lower high in the bigger down trend until proven otherwise' β€” bulls needed to clear the horizontal level / daily 200MA-EMA in the low $80Ks or confirm a lower high in the broader downtrend since the October 2025 ATH.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/bitcoin-critical-support-bearish-signals-60000-retest/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin is putting in a similar reaction after that horizontal level and Daily 200MA/EMA retest compared to January this year ... another lower high in the bigger down trend until proven otherwise.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called 'another lower high in the bigger downtrend until proven otherwise' from $73,367; bulls never reclaimed low-$80Ks (high since only $74,225) and BTC fell to $58,000 β€” the lower-high downtrend was confirmed." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin loses the $60k February low, the next major target is around $48k; if it bounces and breaks higher, the May highs near $80k are the target.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-19", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/DaanCrypto/status/2068061505376198751", "source_type": "x", "quote": "If the February and recent local low give in ($60K $BTC), I would expect a move towards that next horizontal area (~$48K BTC).\n\nIf price were to bounce and break higher, then the May highs (~$80K BTC) are the", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Conditional: lose $60K Feb low β†’ target ~$48K; bounce/break higher β†’ ~$80K. BTC lost $60K (low $58,000) without bouncing, so the $48K-target branch is in play and the upside branch is rejected β€” the realized path followed the bearish leg as specified, now at $58,161 heading toward $48K." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin breaks back above $65.3k local resistance, the next leg could reach $68k or higher; failure to break above will likely lead to further downside.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 68000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-17", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/DaanCrypto/status/2067248683872063774", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC Has been making higher highs and higher lows on the lower timeframe.\n\nIf it can trade back above this local resistance at $65.3K, I could see the case for the next leg to $68K+ following.\n\nBut bulls need to break back above that area otherwise I can easily see this bleed", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $66,384 in [2026-06-17..2026-07-01], reaching the $68,000 target (within 2.4% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is likely to trade in a $60K–$80K range for quite a while.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-08", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/DaanCrypto/status/2063936126658715870", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC Holding the $60K low and I will just assume this is a range for now.\n\nI can easily see us trade in this $60K-$80K region for quite a while. Just need to not turn bearish at the range low and not get too excited at the range high region.\n\nUntil either of these two levels", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a $60K–$80K range holding 'for quite a while'; BTC broke the $60K range low (low $58,000, current $58,161), invalidating the range to the downside well within a month." }, { "claim_text": "If $60K holds as support, Bitcoin could form a large range over the summer between $60K and $80K.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-07", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/DaanCrypto/status/2063546460461781197", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC The bulls have stepped in to defend the previous low. Also on track to close above the Weekly 200MA today if this holds.\n\nAssuming that $60K holds, we could be looking at a big range being formed here over the summer.\n\nLevels of interest on the chart, that's pretty much all", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Conditioned on '$60K holds' forming a summer $60K–$80K range; $60K did not hold (low $58,000, current $58,161), so the premise failed and no range was sustained." }, { "claim_text": "If BTC loses the $60K Weekly 200MA support, the next high-timeframe target is approximately $48K–$50K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 49000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/DaanCrypto/status/2064437878328111319", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC Bulls ended up pulling through and holding the Weekly 200MA after sweeping the $60K February low.\n\nKey area to hold here otherwise BTC risks moving down to the next high timeframe support around the $48K-$50K region.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-09); 2027-03-09 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is expected to make a larger 5%+ move soon given how tightly it has been consolidating.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-21", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/DaanCrypto/status/2057360246864031759", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC Some big clusters right around price.\n\nMost notably: the ~$78K area and the $76.5K-$77K area in the short term.\n\nPrice has been in a pretty tight price range the past few days so expecting some larger 5%+ move to occur here soon again.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a larger 5%+ move soon from $77,548 after tight consolidation; BTC subsequently fell hard to $58,000 β€” a ~25% move, well exceeding the 5%+ break called." }, { "claim_text": "July, August, and September are expected to be slow months for Bitcoin price action, with more meaningful moves not expected until October.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-10-01", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-13", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/DaanCrypto/status/2065691136753066252", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC Currently on track for its worst June performance since 2022 which was the previous bear market year.\n\nJuly, August & September are generally pretty slow and don't see insane moves on average due to the lower Summer liquidity and action.\n\nIt is not until October when we", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Timing call that Jul–Sep are slow with meaningful moves only by October; window (deadline 2026-10-01) has not elapsed β€” Jul/Aug/Sep haven't happened yet, so undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "If BTC breaks above ~$82K, the $84K CME gap gets filled and price likely continues a lot higher.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 84000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-05-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/DaanCrypto/status/2054521343756972407", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC Break above that ~$82K region and that gap at $84K will surely be filled. Likely continuing quite a lot higher at that point.\n\nBut until then, we are trading at resistance. Stocks were shaky yesterday but recovered nicely already. Market mostly awaiting some clarity in", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $82,066 in [2026-05-13..2026-07-01], reaching the $84,000 target (within 2.3% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "If bulls hold the $93K-$94K breakout zone, the $100K region is next up for Bitcoin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-01-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/DaanCrypto/status/2012993649270014436", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC It is essential for the bulls to hold this breakout after 2 months of sideways price action.\n\nIf price falls back down below $93K-$94K, then this was just a liquidity grab in a larger down trend.\n\nIf the bulls can hold this zone, then the $100K region would be next up.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $95,485 since 2026-01-18); 2026-10-18 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "After the range breakout, the first level up for Bitcoin is $98K-$99K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 98000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-01-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/DaanCrypto/status/2011530720226001235", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC That didn't take long indeed. First proper breakout of this 2 month range.\n\nBulls must hold that $93K-$94K region going forward. First level up would be $98K-$99K which acted as support several times throughout 2025.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $97,964 in [2026-01-14..2026-07-01], reaching the $98,000 target (within 0.0% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will trade at about $225K at some point in the future.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 225000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-01-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/DaanCrypto/status/2011484455748116887", "source_type": "x", "quote": "With the massive move in $SILVER, it recently took the 2nd place in assets ranked by market cap.\n\nIf $BTC were to join in on the top 3, it needs to trade at about $225K.\n\nWould be a pretty funny sight. I think we can see this at some point in the future.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2026-01-14); 2031-01-14 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will likely remain range-bound between $60K and $80K for several more months.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-26", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/DaanCrypto/status/2037256778761568349", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC Still hanging around its Weekly 200EMA.\n\nThe Bull Market Support Band is moving down quickly and will meet price in a few weeks at this pace.\n\nOverall, price has been compressing and I would not be surprised if it remains between $60K-$80K for several more months honestly.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Made 2026-03-26 at $68,769; BTC stayed broadly range-bound for several months β€” low $58,000 / high $82,814 only marginally breach the $60K-$80K band, breakdown to $58,161 is recent." }, { "claim_text": "If bulls fail to reclaim the diagonal support, BTC will bleed back down and take the liquidity below $58K.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 58000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-30", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/DaanCrypto/status/2071965572410057125", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC Broke down, swept some lows but left the June 25th low untouched.\n\nIt is now retesting the diagonal support and rejecting so far. Bulls would want to retake that area as quick as possible, otherwise I'm afraid this just bleed back down and takes the liquidity below the $58K", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-06-30..2026-07-01] β€” a minor break (within 0.5%) of the $58,000 floor." } ] }, { "id": "dan-gambardello", "name": "Dan Gambardello", "handles": { "x": "@cryptorecruitr", "nostr": null, "youtube": "Crypto Capital Venture", "web": "https://cryptocapitalventure.com" }, "category": [ "analyst", "youtuber", "trader" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 187000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://www.speakrj.com/audit/report/cryptorecruitr/twitter" }, "score": 60, "score_adj": 27, "avg_specificity": 36, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 5, "counts": { "correct": 3, "wrong": 2, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's Bull Cycle Analysis. $135K target by Aug-Sept 2025 in sight, but don't ignore short-term risks. Buckle up.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 135000, "deadline": "2025-09-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-10-09", "specificity": 68, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptonews.com.au/news/analysts-keep-eyes-firmly-on-135k-bitcoin-target-despite-short-term-risks-123896/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin's Bull Cycle Analysis $135K target by Aug-Sept 2025 in sight, but don't ignore short-term risks. Buckle up. Full video analysis", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $124,533 through the 2025-09-30 horizon; never reached $135,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's bottom is fully in and conditions are forming for a rapid rally toward $200,000 in 2025; the move will happen quickly and appear unbelievable.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-04-29", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/04/29/industry-expert-gambardello-says-bitcoin-bottom-fully-in-setup-unfolding-for-200k-target-in-2025/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Gambardello noted that Bitcoin's bottom is already in place, and that conditions are forming for a rally to $200,000 ... statements like this often transition rapidly from being considered 'crazy' to being seen as 'obvious.'", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is approaching the neckline of the most massive inverse head and shoulders in Bitcoin history; $100,000 per Bitcoin is a possibility on the breakout.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2024-10-28", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2024/10/29/bitcoin-sets-largest-inverse-hs-in-history-analyst-projects-imminent-breakout/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The analyst noted that a breakout from the price pattern will mark 'the most massive inverse head and shoulders in Bitcoin history.' ... Notably, Gambardello had earlier mentioned that $100,000 per Bitcoin is a possibility.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $123,231 in [2024-10-28..2025-07-28], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Next bull run is getting close. Don't question. Prepare.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-05-16", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/next-bitcoin-btc-bull-run-getting-close-dan-gambardello-says-heres-indication", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Next bull run is getting close. Don't question. Prepare.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Made 2023-05-16 at $27,038; a major bull run followed, rallying to $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has entered 'beast mode'; if it moves to the $30,500 target and breaks out above the trend line, a $40,000 target is possible.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 40000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2023-06-21", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://medium.com/@AbundantAuthor/crypto-analyst-dan-gambardello-claims-that-bitcoin-has-entered-beast-mode-9c9fdbe748e7", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "if Bitcoin moves to the $30,500 target and begins to break out above the trend line on the chart, a $40,000 target is possible.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $73,836 in [2023-06-21..2024-03-21], reaching the $40,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin remains on track for a long-term rise toward $1 million; it is currently forming a higher low despite recent volatility, a constructive sign.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-06-12", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/analyst-says-crypto-isnt-dead-highlights-strength-across-bitcoin-xrp-and-cardano", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Gambardello maintained that Bitcoin remains on track for a long-term rise toward $1 million ... is currently forming a higher low despite recent volatility, which he views as a constructive sign for the broader market.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "low", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $67,264 since 2026-06-12); 2031-06-12 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "dan-held", "name": "Dan Held", "handles": { "x": "@danheld", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.theheldreport.com" }, "category": [ "bitcoiner", "kol", "investor", "marketer" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 800000, "as_of": "2025-11-17", "source": "https://blockchain.news/flashnews/dan-held-hits-800-000-twitter-followers-what-it-means-for-btc-sentiment-volume-and-volatility" }, "score": 41.7, "score_adj": 28.9, "avg_specificity": 28, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 6, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 3, "partial": 1, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Using historical price patterns, bitcoin's price should be between $100,000 to $400,000, with a good four to six months left in the bull run, maybe eight to twelve.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2022-05-28", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-05-28", "specificity": 70, "citation": { "url": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/dan-held-bitcoin-2021-speaker", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "We still have a good four to six months left in the bull run, maybe eight to twelve. If we use historical price patterns, bitcoin's price should be between $100,000 to $400,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2022-05-28 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is in a 'supercycle' that could propel it all the way to $1 million; 'this is a one in a hundred year moment.'", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2021-03-19", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/supercycle-may-propel-bitcoin-over-1-million-krakens-dan-held-says-2452486", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin (BTC) is currently experiencing a supercycle that could propel it all the way to $1 million ... 'This is a one in a hundred year moment,' according to Dan Held, growth lead at Kraken.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2023-09-19 horizon; never reached $1,000,000." }, { "claim_text": "Headlines in 3 years: 'Bitcoin crashes from $300K to $200K. Is crypto finally dead?' Happens every time.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2026-12-22", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-12-22", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/danheld/status/1738242577332081045", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Headlines in 3 years: \n\n\"Bitcoin crashes from $300K to $200K. Is crypto finally dead?\" \n\nHappens every time. πŸ™„", "timestamp": "2023-12-22T16:58:20.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-12-22); 2026-12-22 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "$100k Bitcoin. And literally no normies are talking about it yet. Like I've been saying, the bull run is just beginning.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-11", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/danheld/status/1921573979057160367", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$100k Bitcoin. \n\nAnd literally no normies are talking about it yet. \n\nLike I’ve been saying, the bull run is just beginning.", "timestamp": "2025-05-11T14:31:52.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$100k already true at call ($104,138) and pushed to $126,296, but 'bull run just beginning' overstated β€” it topped and crashed to $58,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach a $10 Trillion market cap faster than it reached a $1 Trillion market cap.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-14", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/danheld/status/1944786317822271718", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin will reach a $10 Trillion market cap faster than it reached a $1 Trillion market cap.", "timestamp": "2025-07-14T15:49:25.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended milestone race; $10T mcap needs BTC ~$475k+, high since only $126,296, no deadline and outcome undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Dan Held predicts Bitcoin will reach close to $1 million in a supercycle β€” a KPI he sets for this cycle that no one else is even discussing.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2021-02-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD306_-_Dan_Held_1.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Close to a million is what the KPI would be for a super cycle. And why I like it is no one's talking about it. No one even thinks that's possible. And everyone just thinks it's going to do what it did before. It's a very different environment.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2023-08-02 horizon; never reached $1,000,000." }, { "claim_text": "Dan Held says Bitcoin will never go below $10,000 again and very likely never below $20,000 again, with $30,000 appearing to be the new floor.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 10000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2021-02-07", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD308_-_Dan_Held_3.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I don't think it's ever going under $10,000 ever again. There's a good chance it doesn't go under $20,000. Yeah, I don't think we go under $20,000 ever again. I mean, that's pretty clear to me. $30,000 seem to be the floor that we held, and $20,000 seems impossibly low.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's low was $15,460, held at/above $10,000 (through 2026-02-07)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will eventually break $100,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-12-25", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/danheld/status/1607049115271323648", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I've been around since it was $10. And will be here when I breaks $100k.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2022-12-25..2025-12-25], reaching the $100,000 target." } ] }, { "id": "dan-morehead", "name": "Dan Morehead", "handles": { "x": "@dan_pantera", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://panteracapital.com" }, "category": [ "fund-manager", "venture-investor", "digital-assets-bull" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 165000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitterscore.io/twitter/dan_pantera/" }, "score": 28.6, "score_adj": 13.9, "avg_specificity": 62, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 7, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 5, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Morehead reaffirmed Pantera's stock-to-flow forecast that Bitcoin would reach about $115,000 'this summer' (by August 2021), having doubled down on the $115K-by-August-2021 call on a Jan. 12, 2021 conference call and restated it in his March 2021 Blockchain Letter (BTC then ~$55k).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 115000, "deadline": "2021-08-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-03-16", "specificity": 74, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2021/03/16/bitcoin-could-hit-115k-by-august-panteras-morehead-writes", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin is now ahead of our April 2020 forecast schedule – to hit $115K this summer", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $64,899 through the 2021-08-31 horizon; never reached $115,000." }, { "claim_text": "In Pantera's 'Bonds Down, Crypto Up' Blockchain Letter, Morehead called the start of a new crypto bull market, arguing the bear market had run its course: 'It's been a full year since TerraLUNA/SBF/etc. It's been enough time. We can rally now.'", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-07-15", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/pantera-founder-dan-morehead-predicts-upcoming-bull-market-we-can-rally-now/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I've learned there's just so long markets can be down. Only so much pain investors can take. It's been a full year since TerraLUNA/SBF/etc. It's been enough time. We can rally now.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Made 2023-07-15 at $30,302; market rallied as called, reaching $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "Using Pantera's halving-cycle / stock-to-flow model (first published in the Nov. 2022 Blockchain Letter when BTC was near its ~$16k cycle low), Morehead forecast that Bitcoin would hit $117,482 on August 11, 2025. Pantera later confirmed the target was met.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 117482, "deadline": "2025-08-11", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-11-30", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://panteracapital.com/blockchain-letter/dat-value-creation/", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "During the crypto winter we used our work on the previous three bitcoin halvings to forecast that bitcoin would hit $117,482 on August 11, 2025. It did!!!", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $123,231 in [2022-11-30..2025-08-11], reaching the $117,482 target." }, { "claim_text": "In his November 2024 Blockchain Letter ('Pantera Bitcoin Fund Hits 1,000x'), Morehead said that if Bitcoin's long-run trendline continued it would reach $740,000/BTC (a ~$15 trillion market cap) in April 2028, while cautioning it would likely 'take a few years longer.'", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 740000, "deadline": "2028-04-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-26", "specificity": 50, "citation": { "url": "https://panteracapital.com/blockchain-letter/1000x-pantera-bitcoin-fund/", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "If and when bitcoin gets to $740,000 /BTC, that's a market cap of $15 trillion. Not an inconceivable number, relative to $500 trillion in financial assets. While the past does not necessarily predict the future, if the trend were to continue, bitcoin would hit $740,000 in April 2028.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-11-26); 2028-04-30 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "In an October 2025 Real Vision interview with Raoul Pal (BTC then ~$110k, near its ATH), Morehead said the crypto bull run was not done and that the next six to 12 months would still be a 'big rally,' driven mainly by U.S. regulatory changes.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-06-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-23", "specificity": 44, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsbtc.com/news/its-all-one-trade-crypto-bull-run-isnt-done-says-dan-morehead/", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "The regulatory changes in the US, I think just trump everything… I think the next six to 12 months are still a big rally.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Made 2025-10-23 at $110,116 calling a big 6-12mo rally; by 2026-06-30 deadline high was only $116,410 then crashed to $58,161 (~-47%)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $115,000 by August 2021 (Pantera's halving-model price target, set in April 2020).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 115000, "deadline": "2021-08-01", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-04-27", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD340_-_Dan_Morehead.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I still think it's highly likely that we hit something like $115,000 this summer. ... we originally forecast August 1st, if we want to get really specific.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $59,592 through the 2021-08-01 horizon; never reached $115,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will be approximately 213% higher a year from now, putting it at $200,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2022-04-27", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-04-27", "specificity": 70, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD340_-_Dan_Morehead.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "My prediction is Bitcoin will be 213% higher a year from now. That puts it at $200,000 a year from now. And I know it sounds crazy, but I think it's likely to happen.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2022-04-27 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will hit approximately $74,000 by May 15, 2021, per Pantera's monthly forecast table.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 74000, "deadline": "2021-05-15", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-04-27", "specificity": 100, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD340_-_Dan_Morehead.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "the 15th of May, you've got it at $74,000. So maybe we're just having that dip before we run up to $74,000. Yeah, and as I mentioned, there's times in the last eight months that it was a little ahead of pace, there's some times it's a little behind pace.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $59,592 through the 2021-05-15 horizon; never reached $74,000." } ] }, { "id": "dan-tapiero", "name": "Dan Tapiero", "handles": { "x": "@DTAPCAP", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "macro-investor", "fund-manager", "digital-assets-bull" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 138000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitterscore.io/twitter/DTAPCAP/" }, "score": 31.2, "score_adj": 22.2, "avg_specificity": 14, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 8, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 5, "partial": 1, "pending": 5 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Tapiero said Bitcoin 'could easily see a price close to $200,000' and that a repeat of the prior bear-to-peak run (~20x) could push it 'even higher toward the $300,000 mark,' broadly 'over the next 18 to 24 months and it could be sooner,' driven by spot ETFs and the halving.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2026-03-18", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-03-18", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://www.theblock.co/amp/post/283200/10t-holdings-dan-tapiero-predicts-bitcoin-could-easily-hit-200000-amid-etfs-and-halving", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I think we could easily see a price close to $200,000 ... I think broadly we'll get to that place over the next 18 to 24 months and it could be sooner.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-03-18 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "On X, Tapiero called a 'Textbook cup and handle' and predicted that a 'Break of 115k goes to 150k quickly,' with potential to reach $180,000 in the current bull rally (BTC then ~$107k).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2025-06-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/bitcoin-to-180000-dan-tapiero-issues-ultra-bullish-price-prediction", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Break of 115k goes to 150k quickly. πŸš€ πŸš€ ... Textbook cup and handle.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-03-27 horizon; never reached $150,000." }, { "claim_text": "On X, Tapiero said 'Btc to 1mm in 10yrs is $20T value...just 2% of total world assets. Still so early.' β€” a $1,000,000 Bitcoin target over roughly a 10-year horizon (~2035).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2035-09-24", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-24", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/u_today:859b7ca45094b:0-bitcoin-price-to-1-million-dan-tapiero-issues-crazy-prediction/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Btc to 1mm in 10yrs is $20T value...just 2% of total world assets. Still so early.πŸš€", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-09-24); 2035-09-24 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "In a CoinDesk interview Tapiero reaffirmed his long-held $180,000 Bitcoin target, expecting consolidation around $100,000 first: 'Once we hold that for a bit, I think we're heading to $180K β€” maybe by summer next year' (summer 2026).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 180000, "deadline": "2026-08-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-12", "specificity": 74, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/11/12/crypto-investor-dan-tapiero-sees-ai-blockchain-crossover-fueling-next-big-wave", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Once we hold that for a bit, I think we're heading to $180K β€” maybe by summer next year.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $105,317 since 2025-11-12); 2026-08-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "In a Cointelegraph interview Tapiero said Bitcoin 'is on track to reach $180,000 as part of its current bull cycle' and the 'bull market remains intact,' while warning of a possible later drawdown: 'I'm not saying we're going to go down 90%. I'm saying we can go down 70%.'", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-11", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605058288", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin is on track to reach $180,000 as part of its current bull cycle ... I'm saying we can go down 70%.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Made 2025-11-11 at $103,009; high since only $107,482, then crashed to $58,000 β€” $180k not reached and bull market did not stay intact." }, { "claim_text": "Amid the early-2026 sell-off Tapiero characterized the decline as 'just a correction … the bottom is in,' reaffirming a $180,000 target for the current cycle.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-18", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/01/18/bitcoin-to-usd180-000-stablecoins-to-soar-in-2026-investor-dan-tapiero-predicts", "source_type": "article", "quote": "This is just a correction … the bottom is in.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Made 2026-01-18 at $93,634 declaring 'bottom is in'; BTC instead fell ~38% to $58,000." }, { "claim_text": "Tapiero predicted 2024 would be 'a big up year' for Bitcoin, citing its strong 2023 performance and arguing 0% exposure would pose career risk for institutional investors.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-12-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/28298123/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Clear track record suggests a big up year in 2024. Impossible for institutional investors to ignore.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Made 2023-12-22 at $44,014; 2024 was a big up year, high by 2024-12-31 deadline $108,389 (~+146%)." }, { "claim_text": "Dan Tapiero predicts that a weakening dollar will be very bullish for Bitcoin (and gold) over the medium term.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-27", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/The-Biggest-Shift-in-Bitcoin-History-Is-Happening-Now--Dan-Tapiero--Robbie-Mitchnick-e3fmtne", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I suspect the dollar keeps going down. I think this is going to be very bullish for us over the medium term. Gold and Bitcoin.", "timestamp": "0:21:15", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Made 2026-02-27 at $65,860; BTC rallied to $82,814 (+26%) then reversed below entry to $58,161 β€” mixed medium-term outcome." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by year-end 2026, which he frames as an underappreciated possibility given market conditions.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-25", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/DTAPCAP/status/2036666087056482764", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Btc at 70k today. \n\nDoes anyone in the world think we could be 150k at year end?\n\n1 in 100? \n\n1 in 1000? And it has a shot.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-25); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is likely at or near a macro bottom, with multiple indicators aligning for the next up-cycle.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-28", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/DTAPCAP/status/2016580331021693103", "source_type": "x", "quote": "From a macro standpoint I can't remember too many times where it's been so clear that btc has bottomed.\n\nUsd drop, gold and silver leading, us rates about to drop with new chairman, ndx breaking up to new highs....", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Made 2026-01-28 at $89,162 calling a macro bottom; high since only $90,477, then fell to $58,000 β€” bottom was not in." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin reaches $180,000 in the same macro scenario where silver hits $85 and gold hits $5,500.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 180000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2025-12-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/DTAPCAP/status/1996803077404610639", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Silver going to 85.\n\nPosted same chart a few months ago.\n\nProbably puts gold at 5500, Btc at 180k, ndx at 40k, 2yrs 2%, eur/usd 1.35", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-12-05); 2027-12-05 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The negative crypto sentiment in February 2026 means a sharp upside reversal ('face ripper') is due soon.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-20", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/DTAPCAP/status/2024656592528961864", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Today most negative sentiment have \"felt\" since last bear mkt.\n\nEth Denver reports so bad almost funny.\n\nWell known crytpo guys giving up.\n\nAlts all dead \"forever.\"\n\nBtc lost digital gold narrative. Nothing left now.\n\nShorts bragging/talking 45k.\n\nEtc.\n\nWe're due a face ripper.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Made 2026-02-20 at $67,984 calling a 'face ripper'; a sharp reversal up to $82,814 (+21.8%) materialized soon after." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's market cap will head to more than $10 trillion.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000000000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2023-11-23", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/dan-tapiero-bitcoin-price-will-10x-this-decade-the-truly-global-macro-asset-and-investing-with-legends", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "But the reality is, is that you're probably heading to much higher numbers. 25, 50 trillion, I don't know. I certainly think that Bitcoin is going to head to a market cap of more than 10 trillion.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-11-23); 2028-11-23 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "danny-knowles", "name": "Danny Knowles", "handles": { "x": "@_DannyKnowles", "nostr": null, "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/@WhatBitcoinDidPod", "web": null }, "category": [ "podcast_host", "interviewer", "bitcoiner" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 23500, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/_DannyKnowles" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [] }, { "id": "dante-cook", "name": "Dante Cook", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 83.3, "score_adj": 50, "avg_specificity": 8, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 3, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 0, "partial": 1, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Dante Cook (Bitcoin Simply host) believes Bitcoin's price is about to rebound and that the bottom was likely $60,000.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/The-2-Trillion-Heist-Is-Coming--Beware-Of-The-SpaceX-IPO--Bitcoin-Simply-e3knpd3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitcoin's price is about to rebound, and here's why if you're not distracted by this IPO noise, the bottom was likely $60k.", "timestamp": "0:07:10", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-06-13..2026-07-01] β€” a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "The host argues Bitcoin will not stop at $1 million but will continue to $10 million and beyond as the fiat monetary system is displaced.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-04-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Bitcoin-to-10-Million---The-1-Quadrillion-Market-Bitcoin-Is-About-To-Devour---Bitcoin-Simply-e3igugj", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Because if this goes to a million, it's going to 10 million. It's going to 100 million. It's going to look like a Zimbabwe note of 100 trillion units.", "timestamp": "0:01:11", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-27); 2031-04-27 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Dante Cooke predicts Bitcoin will likely see one or two more violent shakeouts before any recovery.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-30", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Is-The-Bitcoin-Winter-Over---Why-a-Violent-Market-Crash-Could-Already-be-in-Motion---Bitcoin-Simply-e3h6lar", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "we probably get one or two more violent shakeouts. And why every crack in the system is pointing towards the long-term winner. Bitcoin.", "timestamp": "0:00:50", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called for more violent shakeouts/downside before recovery; BTC fell from $66,737 to a low of $58,000 (current $58,161), a clear further shakeout." }, { "claim_text": "Dante Cooke believes the Bitcoin bottom is not yet in.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-30", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Is-The-Bitcoin-Winter-Over---Why-a-Violent-Market-Crash-Could-Already-be-in-Motion---Bitcoin-Simply-e3h6lar", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I don't think the bottom is in. Doesn't really affect me, but hopefully you're learning something when you watch the show.", "timestamp": "0:11:40", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said the bottom was not in; BTC subsequently dropped from $66,737 to $58,000, well below the spot at the time." }, { "claim_text": "Dante Cooke personally agrees that Bitcoin has bottomed and expects an imminent upward move that will catch many investors flat-footed.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-24", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/This-Signal-Says-Bitcoins-Bottom-Is-In--Bitcoin-Simply-e3gu742", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think people are going to be flat-footed for what's about to happen next. But not you. Because as you've listened to this show, not only do you stack Bitcoin by buying on an exchange,", "timestamp": "0:11:39", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claim commits to Bitcoin experiencing a rapid upside move from current levels that most investors fail to anticipate; resolves true if Bitcoin rises significantly (e.g., >50%) from the episode-date price within the following 12 months." } ] }, { "id": "dante-cucco", "name": "Dante Cucco", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Once the macro overhang lifts (e.g. Iran negotiating), Bitcoin reaches $100k.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-26", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Did-Scott-Bessent-Just-Call-The-Bottom-Of-The-Bitcoin-Bear-Market---Bitcoin-Simply-e3lb2is", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "So what happens when Iran comes to the table and is able to negotiate? That macro overhang that's been on sound money assets for the past several months gets lifted. Then I think we see 100k Bitcoin.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $60,839 since 2026-06-26); 2027-03-26 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "dave-the-wave", "name": "Dave the Wave", "handles": { "x": "@davthewave", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://davethewave.substack.com/" }, "category": [ "analyst", "technical-analyst", "trader" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 146900, "as_of": "2024-09-26", "source": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240926141859/https://dailyhodl.com/2024/09/26/heres-an-end-of-2025-price-target-for-bitcoin-btc-according-to-trader-that-called-bear-market-bottom/" }, "score": 12.5, "score_adj": 15.3, "avg_specificity": 50, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 8, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 7, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "If the current trend continues, a conservative year-end 2023 target is roughly $40,000 (the bottom of the LGC channel).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 40000, "deadline": "2023-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-05-22", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/21025440/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If the current trend is observed through to the end of the year, looking at 40K odd… Btw, and that would be the bottom of the current channel…", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $45,000 in [2023-05-22..2023-12-31], reaching the $40,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will come close to $200,000 in 2025 β€” reaching nearly $200,000 by October 2025 (based on LMACD and Fibonacci extensions).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-02-08", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2024/02/08/bitcoin-to-reach-just-shy-of-200000-in-2025-according-to-top-analyst-heres-his-outlook/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "BTC just shy of $200,000 in 2025 based on this prediction.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250616023919/https://dailyhodl.com/2024/02/08/bitcoin-to-reach-just-shy-of-200000-in-2025-according-to-top-analyst-heres-his-outlook/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could reach $169,500 in the last quarter of 2024, en route to the top of the LGC model after the April 2024 halving.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 169500, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-04-23", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2024/04/23/trader-that-called-2022-bear-market-bottom-updates-bitcoin-forecast-heres-his-btc-cycle-top-price-prediction/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "shares a chart with his 147,000 followers on the social media platform X that indicates Bitcoin could reach $169,500 in the last quarter of 2024", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240423103639/https://dailyhodl.com/2024/04/23/trader-that-called-2022-bear-market-bottom-updates-bitcoin-forecast-heres-his-btc-cycle-top-price-prediction/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $108,389 through the 2024-12-31 horizon; never reached $169,500." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could rise as high as $300,000 in 2025 based on his logarithmic growth channel (LGC) indicator (still has 'wiggle room').", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 300000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-06-12", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/dave-the-wave-bitcoin-300000/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Dave the Wave suggested in an X (formerly Twitter) post that Bitcoin could rise as high as $300,000 based on his logarithmic growth channel (LGC) indicator … sometime in 2025.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $300,000." }, { "claim_text": "BTC technical target of $200,000 by the end of 2025 (~214% above the ~$63.7k spot at time of writing); BTC forming a weekly cup-and-handle.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-09-26", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2024/09/26/heres-an-end-of-2025-price-target-for-bitcoin-btc-according-to-trader-that-called-bear-market-bottom/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "BTC technical target of $200,000 end of 2025.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240926141859/https://dailyhodl.com/2024/09/26/heres-an-end-of-2025-price-target-for-bitcoin-btc-according-to-trader-that-called-bear-market-bottom/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "Suggestion of a mid-year 2025 Bitcoin cycle peak β€” BTC has historically topped when the 52-week SMA hits the midline of the LGC channel, expected around mid-July 2025.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-08-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-13", "specificity": 50, "citation": { "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-technical-indicator-predicts-btc-top-summer-2025", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The suggestion of a mid-year #BTC peak here.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a mid-2025 cycle peak; high by the Aug-31-2025 deadline was $124,533 but BTC later made a higher ATH of $126,296, so the peak did not occur mid-year." }, { "claim_text": "A repeat of the Q4-2023/Q1-2024 rally would put BTC at $200,000 at the end of 2025, hitting target by November 2025; bullish so long as BTC holds above $74,000 ('wouldn't want to see the price below that').", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-04-09", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2025/04/09/trader-who-called-2021-collapse-doubles-down-on-massive-year-end-bitcoin-price-target-despite-deep-btc-drawdown/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "A BTC repeat would see $200,000 at the end of the year.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250409073846/https://dailyhodl.com/2025/04/09/trader-who-called-2021-collapse-doubles-down-on-massive-year-end-bitcoin-price-target-despite-deep-btc-drawdown/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bullish-invalidation / support call: Bitcoin's crucial support is $74,000 β€” 'Wouldn't want to see the price below that.' (Made 2025-04-09 with BTC at $76,501.)", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 74000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-04-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2025/04/09/trader-who-called-2021-collapse-doubles-down-on-massive-year-end-bitcoin-price-target-despite-deep-btc-drawdown/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "That level is S74,000. Wouldn’t want to see the price below that.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250409073846/https://dailyhodl.com/2025/04/09/trader-who-called-2021-collapse-doubles-down-on-massive-year-end-bitcoin-price-target-despite-deep-btc-drawdown/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called $74,000 crucial support not to be breached; BTC fell to $58,000, well below the level." }, { "claim_text": "BTC will break through its previous all-time high in Q4 2027, based on a fractal pattern of each recovery taking roughly 7/8 of the prior cycle's duration.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2027-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-26", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/davthewave/status/2070299421229863382", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#btc prediction: price will be through the previous high in the 4th quarter of next year. Each subsequent time span from price peak to recovering that peak is approx 7/8s of the one preceding it.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicts breaking the prior ATH in Q4 2027; window open through 2027-12-31, BTC at $58,161 vs ~$126k ATH β€” undetermined." } ] }, { "id": "david-bailey", "name": "David Bailey", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 24, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "David Bailey predicts Bitcoin will reach $250,000 to $350,000 in 2021.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2021", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-03-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/SLP256-David-Bailey-Bitcoin-2021-and-Bull-Markets-eratb6", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "the price of Bitcoin is going to go to 250, $350,000 this year. And when we get there, you know, and we're at a $10 trillion market cap, people are going to start asking the question, where do we go from here?", "timestamp": "0:22:39", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted $250k–$350k in 2021; 2021 high by deadline was only ~$69,000, nowhere near the band." } ] }, { "id": "david-gerard", "name": "David Gerard", "handles": { "x": "@davidgerard", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/" }, "category": [ "author", "critic", "journalist" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 26216, "as_of": "2023-02-07", "source": "https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q108334011" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 24, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Predicting crypto for 2023: 'The bitcoin price is going down further. We don't see any prospective new buyers putting actual dollars into the system any time soon.'", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2023-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-12-31", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/2022/12/31/your-100-reliable-guide-to-the-future-of-crypto-in-2023/", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "The bitcoin price is going down further. We don't see any prospective new buyers putting actual dollars into the system any time soon.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said BTC would go down further in 2023; instead it rallied from $16,530 to $45,000 by the 2023-12-31 deadline." } ] }, { "id": "david-puell", "name": "David Puell", "handles": { "x": "@kenoshaking", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.ark-invest.com" }, "category": [ "on-chain-analyst", "research-analyst", "fund-analyst" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 70500, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/dpuellark?lang=en" }, "score": 75, "score_adj": 100, "avg_specificity": 39, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 0, "partial": 1, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "We're more or less anticipating $104,000 to $124,000 price targets by end of year. (BTC year-end 2024 target, based on bitcoin's historical performance multiple potentially reaching 2.48x to 2.94x by December's end.)", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 104000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-28", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/28/bitcoin-could-hit-as-high-as-124k-before-year-end-says-ark-invest-analyst", "source_type": "article", "quote": "We're more or less anticipating $104,000 to $124,000 price targets by end of year", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2024-11-28..2024-12-31], reaching the $104,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "On how far through the bull cycle Bitcoin was as of late Nov 2024: 'If you're measuring bottom to top, I would say we're at about 55% to 65% of the way there' β€” a 'sort of middle of the bull.'", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-28", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-could-hit-high-124k-192359732.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If you're measuring bottom to top, I would say we're at about 55% to 65% of the way there", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called 'middle of the bull' (55–65%) at $95,666; some upside followed to the $126,296 top (~72% bottom-to-top), so more along than stated, then crashed β€” mixed." }, { "claim_text": "ARK Invest 2030 BTC valuation model (authored/presented by Puell): bear case $500,000, base case $1.2 million, bull case $2.4 million by 2030.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": "2030-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-04-25", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/04/25/ark-invest-raises-2030-bitcoin-price-target-to-as-high-as-24m-in-bullish-scenario", "source_type": "article", "quote": "We believe that this more experimental exercise highlights that Bitcoin's scarcity and lost supply are not reflected in most valuation models today.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-04-25); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Even if the US government did nothing more on Bitcoin, Bitcoin will continue monetizing and be worth a lot more in about 10 years.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2036", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-16", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/oFDzQUUH0Nd3y881BKkQ/files/VIDEO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "the U S government never said the word Bitcoin again, never did anything relating to Bitcoin again. Uh, like Bitcoin is still going to go to, you know, uh, uh, it's still going to kind of continue on its monetization. Like, I think that is ... a safe bet to make that in 10 years, uh, Bitcoin will be a lot more", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "10-year monetization thesis with deadline 2036; window open, undetermined." } ] }, { "id": "davincij15", "name": "Davincij15", "handles": { "x": "@Davincij15", "nostr": null, "youtube": "Davinci Jeremie", "web": null }, "category": [ "youtuber", "influencer", "early-adopter", "commentator" ], "followers": { "platform": "youtube", "count": 926000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:85d72992f094b:0-davinci-jeremie-bought-bitcoin-at-1-but-100k-btc-doesn-t-excite-him/" }, "score": 72.7, "score_adj": 33.3, "avg_specificity": 7, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 11, "counts": { "correct": 8, "wrong": 3, "partial": 0, "pending": 27 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "It costs miners ~$70K to produce 1 Bitcoin now; in past bull markets BTC has hit over 5x the mining cost, implying ~$350,000 is possible. 'Huge potential ahead!' (no timeframe given).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 350000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2025-01-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:04e9f4511094b:0-bitcoin-to-350-000-top-crypto-influencer-makes-bold-prediction/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "It costs miners about $70k to produce 1 #Bitcoin now, less with better hardware or cheap energy. In past bull markets, Bitcoin's price has hit over 5x the mining cost. Huge potential ahead!", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-01-11); 2028-01-11 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will be above $500,000 before the end of this decade (i.e., by ~2030).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": "2029-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-15", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/bitcoin-to-500000-jeremie-davinci-reveals-ultimate-price-prediction", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin will be above $500k before the end of this decade.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-07-15); 2029-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "There will come a point where Bitcoin never trades below $100,000 ever again (eventual permanent floor; no date given).", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2025-07-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/bitcoin-never-below-100000-again-jeremie-davinci", "source_type": "article", "quote": "There will come a point where we never see sub $100,000 BTC ever again!!", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-07-18..2026-07-01], below the $100,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin may never again fall below $80,000 (eventual floor framing; no date given).", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2025-06-03", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/06/03/davinici-jeremie-not-buying-bitcoin-is-biggest-mistake-youll-ever-make-expects-btc-never-drop-below-80k-again/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "the pioneering cryptocurrency may never again fall below $80,000", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-06-03..2026-07-01], below the $80,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "On 2026 price direction: 'Most likely, we're going to go down'; best case is a return to the prior all-time high (~$125,100) rather than a meaningful new high.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-15", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:85d72992f094b:0-davinci-jeremie-bought-bitcoin-at-1-but-100k-btc-doesn-t-excite-him/", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "Most likely, we're going to go down, he tells Magazine during an interview in December. Best case scenario where we come back to the all-time highs ... A move back to Bitcoin's peak of $125,100 from its current price of $91,455 would represent a gain of nearly 37%.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said 'most likely we go down' and no meaningful new high; BTC peaked only at $97,964 (never near $125,100 ATH) and fell to $58,161." }, { "claim_text": "Most people think Feb 2026 was the bottom (BTC fell below ~$60K), but the 'max pain isn't in yet' β€” expects another dump / one final capitulation event (FTX-crash style) before BTC reaches its cycle low.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-16", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-btc-rebounds-12-in-2-weeks-yet-analyst-believes-the-max-pain-could-be-on-the-way/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "He found similarities between the dump this February, when the asset's valuation suddenly plummeted below $60,000 to the one from June 2022. Later on, the analyst alerted traders and investors that 'the max pain isn't in yet,' foreseeing one capitulation event like the FTX crash before BTC tumbles to its cycle low.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said Feb 2026 wasn't the bottom and more downside was coming; BTC dropped from $75,163 to $58,000, below the ~$60k Feb level." }, { "claim_text": "One final dip remains before Bitcoin bottoms, after which price will move toward $500K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2026-04-12", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2043344252659527738", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Just one final dip before #Bitcoin bottom.\n\nAfter that, a journey towards $500K will start.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-12); 2028-10-12 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will have one final dip mimicking Gold's 1970s pattern before a mega rally to $500K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2026-04-17", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2045182374787596571", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#Bitcoin is mimicking Gold's 1970s move.\n\nOne final dip before a mega rally.\n\nSee you at $500K.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-17); 2028-10-17 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The February 2026 dump is not the bottom β€” one more capitulation event comparable to the FTX crash is still ahead before Bitcoin truly bottoms.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-15", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2044453819824877635", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Feb 2026 dump was similar to the June 2022 dump.\n\nBut the max pain isn't in yet.\n\nThere'll be one capitulation event, like the FTX crash, before #Bitcoin bottoms.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said Feb 2026 dump wasn't the bottom and more capitulation lay ahead; BTC fell from $74,836 to $58,000, breaking below the prior Feb low." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has not bottomed at $60K and a final capitulation is still expected before any reversal.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-20", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2046209984908956150", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Everyone thinks $60K is the bottom.\n\nThis is why I expect one final #Bitcoin capitulation before reversal.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called $60K not the bottom with a further capitulation coming; BTC broke below to $58,000 low and sits at $58,161, confirming the lower-low thesis." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will see another dump or final capitulation before the bottom is established.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-23", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2047265220721279463", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Everyone was convinced June 2022 was the bottom.\n\nMost people are convinced Feb 2026 was the bottom.\n\nThat's why I think there'll be another dump or final capitulation in #Bitcoin.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted another dump/final capitulation before the bottom; BTC fell from $78,281 to a $58,000 low (now $58,161), the further dump materialized." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin near-term is unlikely to outperform alongside the S&P 500 ATH β€” Bitcoin underperformance is expected for now.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-27", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2048765057727856911", "source_type": "x", "quote": "S&P 500 new ATH doesn't mean Bitcoin will do the same.\n\nIn 2022, stocks dumped and Bitcoin dumped too.\n\nIn 2018, stocks pumped, but #Bitcoin still dumped.\n\nThe time will come when BTC will outperform everything for years, but it's not now.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said BTC would underperform near-term despite S&P ATH; BTC fell ~25% from $77,364 to $58,161, clearly declining/underperforming." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has only printed 5 red monthly candles in the current cycle versus 9 in prior cycles, indicating the bottom may not yet be in.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-03", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2050740540510187914", "source_type": "x", "quote": "In the 2017-18 cycle, #Bitcoin had 9 red monthly candles before the bottom.\n\nIn the 2021-22 cycle, BTC had 9 red monthly candles before the bottom.\n\nThis time, BTC only had 5 red monthly candles, which means the bottom might not be in yet.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Argued bottom 'might not be in' (only 5 red candles); BTC subsequently fell from $78,559 to a new $58,000 low, confirming more downside." }, { "claim_text": "BTC/Gold ratio has most likely bottomed for this cycle.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-05", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2051649591347761246", "source_type": "x", "quote": "BTC/Gold has most likely bottomed for this cycle.\n\nI called about this possibility in Feb, and it seems to be playing out.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claimed BTC/Gold ratio bottomed for the cycle, but BTC then crashed ~28% (from $80,908 to $58,161) in a risk-off move; with gold typically firm, the ratio almost certainly made new lows rather than bottoming." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will eventually reach $1,000,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-05-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2057750833081835532", "source_type": "x", "quote": "When you buy #Bitcoin today no one will talk about how you got it at $94k and not $80k when it's $1,000,000!!", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $78,015 since 2026-05-22); 2032-05-22 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-03-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2032834381950365745", "source_type": "x", "quote": "In 2035, people will say the same thing about $70K.\n\nYou're living in someone's time machine right now.\n\nSee you at $500K! 🎯", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-14); 2031-03-14 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-03-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2032328342289150083", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The 20 millionth #Bitcoin was just mined.\n\nOnly 1 million left. Ever.\n\nAnd you're still thinking about buying.\n\nSee you at $500K! 🎯", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-13); 2030-03-13 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-03-12", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2032109416611528789", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Every bottom is higher than the last.\n\nYou're not watching a crash. You're watching a staircase.\n\nSee you at $500K! 🎯", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-12); 2030-03-12 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-03-12", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2032033907923927074", "source_type": "x", "quote": "14 years ago I left a comment on YouTube:\n\n\"Everyday you wait is less bitcoins you can find.\"\n\nI wasn't lucky. I was early. And I'm STILL early.\n\nSee you at $500K! 🎯", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-12); 2030-03-12 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-03-12", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2032016987069825118", "source_type": "x", "quote": "In 2026, from $126K to $69K.\n\nSee you at the $500K crash! πŸš€", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-12); 2030-03-12 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-03-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2031606075338928218", "source_type": "x", "quote": "That's what some would have said if you'd traveled back in time to 2011 to let them know what #bitcoin would cost in 2026. \n\nSee if you are doubting at 500k!!!", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-11); 2030-03-11 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-03-10", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2031305391011934358", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Still true today. See you at $500K! 🎯 https://t.co/7D4rgJI6oB", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-10); 2030-03-10 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-03-10", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2031289512740204592", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#Bitcoin on exchanges just hit an all time low!!\n\nLess $BTC available to buy.\n\nIf demand rises, supply won't keep up.\n\nSee you at $500,000 🎯", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-10); 2030-03-10 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-03-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2031055625992716408", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The Fear & Greed Index is at 8.\n\nEvery single time, the people who bought here became the people everyone else envied later.\n\nSee you at 500K!", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-09); 2030-03-09 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-03-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2029882784089829424", "source_type": "x", "quote": "People who call Bitcoin a scam:\nβœ… Pay 30% income tax\n\nBut sure… Bitcoin's the scam. πŸ‘\n\nSee you at $500K. 🎯", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-06); 2030-03-06 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-03-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2029491081499615246", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#Bitcoin dropped 48% from its high.\nIt's still up 6,500,000% from day one.\n\nOne of these is broken.\nIt's not Bitcoin.\n\nSee you at $500K. 🎯", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-05); 2030-03-05 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500K, with people buying at $200K along the way.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-03-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2029340346149421079", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The people laughing today will be buying at $200K.\nbecause I've been saying...\n\nSee you at $500K. 🎯", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-04); 2030-03-04 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2026-03-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2029043174560415935", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Nobody talks about\n#Bitcoin: $0.01 β†’ $66,000\n+6,500,000%\n\nWe're not even close to done. 🎯\n\nSee you β€œdown 50%” at $500K!", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-04); 2028-09-04 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "year", "made_on": "2026-03-03", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2028875612627370207", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Month 4 of 12\n#bitcoin Bear market loading... πŸ”„\n\nSee you at 500k. 🎯", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-03); 2027-06-03 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-02-28", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2027762093504827751", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I moved to Dubai for a tax shelter and got a bomb shelter for my #bitcoin!\n\nSee you at 500k if I survive! 🀣", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-02-28); 2030-02-28 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-02-28", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2027662986001977674", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Fear & Greed at 9. Bitcoin at $63K.\n\nSame fear. Same panic. Same regret later.\n\nSee you at $500K. 🟠", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-02-28); 2030-02-28 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500K, made inevitable by coming hyperinflation.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-02-26", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2026972712326037875", "source_type": "x", "quote": "2,000 years of financial history shows this is the starting gun for hyperinflation. \nWhen that hits, $500K #BTC won't just be possible, it'll be inevitable. \n\nSee you at $500K before", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-02-26); 2031-02-26 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-02-26", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2026870467827782045", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Today: BTC $68K. Gold $5,200. Silver $91.\n\nSound money doesn't need your permission to go up.\n\nSee you at $500K BTC! 🟠", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-02-26); 2030-02-26 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2026-02-20", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2024892396950143248", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Back in 2011, #Bitcoin once DUMPED from $17 to $0.01 after Mt. Gox got hacked!\n\nAnd see where we are nowπŸ‘€\n\nSee you at the 500k bottom!", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-02-20); 2028-08-20 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-02-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2018235655588061661", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Yes, I said #BTC wouldn't go below $80k.\n\nI was wrong.\n\nI guess I'm just always wrong.\n\nSee you at $500k. $tSAT $0.005!", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-02-02); 2030-02-02 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-02-01", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2017790512900805111", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#Bitcoin: $1 β†’ $32 β†’ $2 β†’ $100,000 β†’ $77,000\n\nSame FUD. Same panic. Same people selling the bottom.\n\nSee you at $500k.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-02-01); 2030-02-01 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will be above $70K by December 2026, leaving current sellers regretting the $70K level.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": 70000, "deadline": "2026-12", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2032471790698877308", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#Bitcoin dropped 44% from its all-time high.\n\nThe people panicking right now will be the same ones saying \"I wish I bought at $70K\" by December.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "December 2026 deadline has not elapsed (as_of 2026-06-30); BTC currently $58,161 (below $70K) but the window remains open, outcome undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will dip to around $60K, possibly $55K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-02-07", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Davincij15/status/2019967412653961287", "source_type": "x", "quote": "So what's next?\n\n#Bitcoin probably dips to $60k. Maybe $55k.\n\nThen the same people saying \"I wish I bought at $60k\" will say \"it's going lower.\"\n\nAnd I'll be buying.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-02-07..2026-07-01], reaching the $60,000 downside target." } ] }, { "id": "dennis-porter", "name": "Dennis Porter", "handles": { "x": "@Dennis_Porter_", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.satoshiaction.io" }, "category": [ "advocate", "policy", "researcher" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 229000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitterscore.io/twitter/Dennis_Porter_/" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 74, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 4 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "A lot of bitcoin was being sold before the end of the year for tax purposes. The year has ended. It is now 2025. I predict between now and August we go on a run to $150,000 or higher.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2025-08-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-01", "specificity": 74, "citation": { "url": "https://thenewscrypto.com/bitcoin-could-breach-150000-in-2025-says-satoshi-action-fund-ceo/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "A lot of bitcoin was being sold before the end of the year for tax purposes. The year has ended. It is now 2025. I predict between now and August we go on a run to $150,000 or higher.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $124,533 through the 2025-08-31 horizon; never reached $150,000." }, { "claim_text": "In the bull scenario of Rudd & Porter's peer-reviewed supply/demand model, Bitcoin will reach USD 1M prices by early 2027 (for all levels of daily withdrawal >1000 BTC/day), with the price reaching USD 2M by late 2027 and USD 5M by 2031.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2027-03-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-30", "specificity": 44, "citation": { "url": "https://s3-jak01.storageraya.com/alfean/journal/jrfm-18-00066-v2.pdf", "source_type": "article", "quote": "that Bitcoin will reach USD 1 M prices by early 2027 for all levels of withdrawal >1000 Bitcoin per day, and then diverge in 2028 as supply constraints come into play. ... at higher levels of withdrawal, the price could reach USD 2 M by late 2027 and USD 5 M by 2031.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-01-30); 2027-03-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "In the conservative scenario of Rudd & Porter's model, the Bitcoin price could reach the USD 1M level by about June 2028 (4000 BTC withdrawn daily), and the USD 1M mark is forecast to be breached by early Autumn 2028 for intermediate (2000 BTC/day) withdrawals.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2028-09-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-30", "specificity": 44, "citation": { "url": "https://s3-jak01.storageraya.com/alfean/journal/jrfm-18-00066-v2.pdf", "source_type": "article", "quote": "This scenario implies that the Bitcoin price could reach the USD 1 M level by about June 2028, providing that there are continual strong flows of 4000 Bitcoin being removed from liquid supply daily. For an intermediate level of withdrawalβ€”2000 Bitcoin dailyβ€”the USD 1 M mark is forecast to be breached by early Autumn 2028.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-01-30); 2028-09-30 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is ultimately a $10 million per coin asset.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-04-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Dennis_Porter_/status/2048581308167893193", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin is a $10,000,000 asset that you can buy for $79k today. Do what you wish with that information.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-27); 2032-04-27 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will exceed $1,000,000 per coin in the looming bull market.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2026-05-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Dennis_Porter_/status/2051373873975689668", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin won. It’s already over. \n\nBut you still have time to buy bitcoin for less than $1,000,000 a coin. Do not waste this opportunity. \n\nWhen the looming bull market hits, the bears will be in absolute disbelief.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-05-04); 2028-11-04 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "dergigi", "name": "Gigi", "handles": { "x": "@dergigi", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://dergigi.com" }, "category": [ "author", "developer", "educator", "philosopher" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 0, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitter.com/dergigi" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [] }, { "id": "donalt", "name": "DonAlt", "handles": { "x": "@CryptoDonAlt", "nostr": null, "youtube": "TechnicalRoundup", "web": null }, "category": [ "trader", "chartist", "technical-analyst" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 710000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://u.today/author-of-legendary-700-xrp-prediction-reacts-to-crypto-market-collapse-reveals-bitcoin-price" }, "score": 85.7, "score_adj": 100, "avg_specificity": 3, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 7, "counts": { "correct": 6, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is 'bullish until proven otherwise' β€” DonAlt says he will remain bullish until he sees weakness; his invalidation is a move below $44,000 (BTC trading ~$54,675 at the time, having just cleared $50k).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-10-10", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/2176473/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I'm just going to remain bullish until I see weakness ... Anything above $44,000 and that's quite a bit away now", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Stayed bullish with a $44,000 invalidation; BTC immediately rallied to a new ATH (~$69k, high since $126,296) before any invalidation, vindicating the bullish stance." }, { "claim_text": "DonAlt says he is buying Bitcoin now around the $19,000 level and is 'always comfortable buying below $20,000', and would add more if it drops lower.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-10-12", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cryptonews:4cc72050e:0-crypto-trader-donalt-posts-bitcoin-price-prediction-i-m-buying-now/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I'm buying now ... always comfortable buying below $20,000", "timestamp": "14:10", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Comfortable buying below $20,000 near $19,156; BTC bottomed near there ($15,460 low) and rallied enormously to $126,296 β€” the sub-$20k buy thesis paid off." }, { "claim_text": "On the weekly timeframe DonAlt sees BTC potentially climbing near $33,000 before correcting back to $27,000, then attempting to break the $35,000 monthly resistance; $35,000 is the key level that decides whether BTC 'wants to move up'.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 35000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2023-03-20", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://crypto.news/crypto-analyst-donalt-says-btc-could-move-up-faces-resistance-at-35k/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "the breakout will be confirmed when this monthly close is above the resistance of about $24,000; this would be the first positive signal", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $45,000 in [2023-03-20..2023-12-20], reaching the $35,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "DonAlt is bullish on BTC from the ~$16,000 base and says his new invalidation for anything is really below $22,000; if BTC dumps below $23,000 in the next two days, 'forget I ever said that'. Next resistance is $35,000.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-03-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.cointribune.com/en/bitcoin-is-ruined-if-it-drops-below-23000-according-to-donalt/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If the next two days go horribly wrong, and we dump below $23,000, forget I ever said that ... my new invalidation for anything is really below $22,000 ... the next resistance is $35,000", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bullish with invalidation below $22,000 and $35k resistance; low since was $24,750 (invalidation never hit) and BTC rallied through $35k to $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "DonAlt bought a little Bitcoin around $26,000 ('you could make an argument for buying here'), with a profit target near $30,000 and an invalidation around $25,000 β€” below which he expects proper capitulation toward $20,000.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-09-15", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/btc/bitcoin-forecast-analyst-who-predicted-2022-bottom-unveils-new-long-positions-for-btc/", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "We're at the point where you could make an argument for buying here [around $26,000] ... you basically have an invalidation around $25,000 right now", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bought ~$26k with $25k invalidation and $30k target; low since $25,984 held the invalidation and BTC blew past $30k to $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "DonAlt says Bitcoin will likely keep choppy in the ~$70,000 range but expects it to accelerate higher once it closes near $82,000 on the monthly chart; closing around $76,000-$78,000 toward $82,000 would signal the rally is going to accelerate.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-14", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605364110", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If you close anywhere close to $82,000...I'd be, OK, we're probably just going to accelerate.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted acceleration higher once closing near $82k; BTC touched $82,814 but failed to accelerate and instead collapsed ~22% to $58,161 β€” no sustained breakout." }, { "claim_text": "DonAlt characterizes BTC as 'not bad, but not great either' β€” firmly capped above by a seller zone at $82,300 and protected below by support at $60,000 β€” and says Bitcoin could correct toward ~$60,000 support, attributing such a move to crowd psychology rather than a fundamental trend breakdown.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-02", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605440049", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The price is firmly capped from above by the seller zone at $82,300, while from below the market is protected by a strong support block at $60,000", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said BTC could correct toward the ~$60,000 support and stay capped near $82,300; BTC corrected from $66,658 to the $60k zone (low $58,000, now $58,161), as called (slightly overshooting support)." } ] }, { "id": "doomberg", "name": "Doomberg", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 50, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 1, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will not bottom until the Tether (and Binance/Bitfinex) situation is resolved, after which he intends to make a multi-percent allocation.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-12-30", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD599_-_Doomberg.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "when tether is resolved and Binance is resolved and Bitfinex is resolved and all of this is sort of washed away, that's when we think the bottom of this sort of secular bear market in Bitcoin will be in. And that's a point where we would make a multiple percent allocation of our net worth and stick it in a safe somewhere", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bottom was ~$15,460-$16,326 right around when he spoke (Dec 2022), and BTC went on to rally to $126,296 β€” so a bottom was indeed in, but he tied it to Tether/Binance/Bitfinex being 'resolved,' which did not happen; the bottom came regardless of his stated condition." }, { "claim_text": "Doomberg would buy Bitcoin if the Tether situation resolved and price fell to $5,000.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 5000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-08-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD697_-_Doomberg.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "we said that the Tether situation would need to be resolved so that we could be more confident that the price on the screen was real and that if it then fell to $5,000", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's low was $24,900, held at/above $5,000 (through 2026-07-01)." } ] }, { "id": "douglas-macgregor", "name": "Douglas Macgregor", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 0, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will recover after the stock market crashes, unlike the broader market which may not recover quickly.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-08", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/col-douglas-macgregor-why-i-sold-bitcoin-coming-crash-gold-reserve-status-and-chinas-grip-on-our-military", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "When the stock market tanks, there'll be a tendency for Bitcoin to tank. The difference though is that much like 29, 30, 31, 32, the market isn't going to recover right away... Bitcoin though will recover.", "timestamp": "0:09:13", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC fell from $91,026 (Jan 2026) to $58,161 by as_of and has NOT recovered β€” low of $58,000 and current price $58,161 show it is at its lows, not recovering." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will fill the role of a store of value and reserve asset when gold supply is insufficient and the dollar loses reserve status.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-08", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/col-douglas-macgregor-why-i-sold-bitcoin-coming-crash-gold-reserve-status-and-chinas-grip-on-our-military", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think that's where Bitcoin comes roaring into the equation because you need a store of value... I think Bitcoin is going to fill the requirement. At least that's my supposition.", "timestamp": "0:10:24", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claim commits to Bitcoin rising in value and adoption as a reserve/store-of-value asset, with no specific price or timeline." } ] }, { "id": "dylan-leclair", "name": "Dylan LeClair", "handles": { "x": "@DylanLeClair_", "nostr": null, "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/@Dylan_LeClair", "web": "https://dylanleclair.info/" }, "category": [ "analyst", "on-chain", "macro", "cycle-commentary" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 300000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/DylanLeClair_" }, "score": 60, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 17, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 5, "counts": { "correct": 3, "wrong": 2, "partial": 0, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Argued '$100,000 before years end' for 2021 was 'not as crazy as it may sound' and that '$100,000 in 2021 is in the cards', comparing the setup to the 2017 parabolic FOMO phase once BTC broke its prior all-time high.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-09-03", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://bmpro.substack.com/p/the-daily-dive-053-100000-bitcoin", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "$100,000 before years end? It is not as crazy as it may sound, and here is why: ... $100,000 in 2021 is in the cards.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "In an April 7, 2024 analyst note, said it was 'pretty unlikely' Bitcoin revisits the ~$50,000 level given the structure of higher lows and lack of froth in derivatives, and noted that a rally into $70,000-$75,000 would force heavy short liquidations.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-04-07", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-liquidations-dylan-leclair-crypto-analyst", "source_type": "article", "quote": "While there is a large cluster of longs that could be taken out at ~50k, given the structure of higher lows and the lack of immediate froth in the derivatives landscape currently, I find it pretty unlikely we revisit that level.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "He said it was 'pretty unlikely' BTC revisits ~$50k, but low_since_made hit $49,050 β€” BTC did revisit and breach that level." }, { "claim_text": "Framed the spring-2024 pullback as a bull-market dip rather than a cycle top, writing 'This bull market has legs, and the current pullback from the highs ... should be a welcomed development for investors,' and signing off 'BTFD' (buy the dip).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-04-17", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/dylan-leclair-bitcoin-bull-market-dip-or-cycle-regime-shift", "source_type": "article", "quote": "This bull market has legs, and the current pullback from the highs, along with any future dips in the exchange rate, should be a welcomed development for investors. ... BTFD.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Framed April 2024 dip from $61,279 as a buyable bull-market dip; BTC subsequently rallied to a new high of $126,296, validating the 'bull market has legs / BTFD' call." }, { "claim_text": "At Bitcoin MENA (Abu Dhabi, Dec 2025) argued the Bitcoin four-year (halving) cycle 'may never have existed' and that macro liquidity, not the halving, now drives Bitcoin markets β€” a regime-shift / 'four-year cycle is dead' call.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-09", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcast.bitcoin.com/episode/4KakowmlTXzY0CzUpCvAGU/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Dylan LeClair, Head of Bitcoin Strategy at Metaplanet, joins David Sencil at the Bitcoin MENA Conference ... The conversation covers ... why the four-year Bitcoin cycle may never have existed, and why macro liquidity now drives Bitcoin markets.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "A 'four-year cycle is dead' regime call made Dec 2025 is a multi-year thesis whose window has not elapsed; BTC's drop from $92,690 to $58,161 is consistent with a normal cyclical drawdown, leaving the broader thesis undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "There will be a bear market because everything is cyclical, but he does not believe the big secular bear thesis of a ~70% drawdown followed by a multi-year 'go home for three years' bear will happen this time; expects shallower repricing/chop instead.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-30", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/yv9GwR3obkK3mh4qW4x2/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "the big secular bear market thesis of like, okay, we're going to, you know, 70% down, we're going to call it, we're going to all go home for three years, pack it up. I don't know if I, I put Wade into that. I don't, I actually don't believe that will happen... but everything's cyclical, right? So I think there will be a bear market.", "timestamp": "0:26:50", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "He expected shallower chop, not a ~70% secular bear; from $117,830 BTC fell to $58,000 (~51% drawdown) β€” deep but not yet 70%, and the multi-year window for whether a full secular bear plays out has not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "A real Bitcoin bull run is probably 12 to 24 months away from now.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-08-31", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://assets.podhome.fm/8029725b-0319-44b9-4793-08dc404e83a4/transcript_786f563e-e209-425c-9715-e2e89662c655638456252061716694.html", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "we probably got, like, you know, 12, 18, who knows, maybe 24 months before, like, what people think of as, like, a Bitcoin bull run really manifests. And maybe I'm super wrong with that timeline, but, that's kinda how I think of things.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said a real bull run was 12-24 months out from Aug 2023 ($25,932), i.e. by ~2025; BTC rallied to ATH $126,296 by deadline, manifesting a clear bull run within the window." }, { "claim_text": "The worst of BTC's price capitulation is over; Bitcoin will grind sideways for an extended period rather than experience further sharp downside.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-01-13", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD605_-_Dylan_LeClair.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think the worst of the price based capitulation is done. I think we have a painful sideways existence for some time. I mean, I don't know exactly, but for the most part, the exciting part of the bear market in terms of the volatility, the deleveraging, whatever it may be β€” we've just washed the dead bodies to the shore.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said worst of price capitulation was done at $19,935 (Jan 2023); low_since_made was $18,715 (only marginally below) before BTC recovered to $126,296 β€” the capitulation was essentially over as stated." } ] }, { "id": "elon-musk", "name": "Elon Musk", "handles": { "x": "@elonmusk", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "entrepreneur", "tech-ceo", "market-mover" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 240200000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Responding to a user who said gold was better than bitcoin and cash, Musk tweeted that money is just data and added 'that said, BTC & ETH do seem high lol' β€” a casual valuation/directional call that bitcoin (then ~$55k-$57k, having just crossed a $1T market cap) was elevated/overvalued.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-02-20", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/20/elon-musk-says-bitcoin-seems-high-after-surpassing-1-trillion-market-cap.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Musk added, 'that said, BTC & ETH do seem high lol,' in a response to a user who said gold was better than both bitcoin and cash. Bitcoin was trading above $57,000 on Saturday when Musk made the comments.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called BTC 'high' at ~$56k in Feb 2021; it never sustainably reversed on that basis β€” rallying to $126,296 β€” so the 'overvalued/elevated' directional read did not pan out." } ] }, { "id": "eric-trump", "name": "Eric Trump", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Eric Trump expresses absolute conviction that Bitcoin will hit $1 million, possibly by 2030 or 2031.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-05-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Can-Bitcoin-Hit-1-Million---Anthony-Pompliano-e3j7h97", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I said that Bitcoin was going to hit a million dollars. And I have absolute conviction in my mind that Bitcoin is going to hit a million dollars. I don't know if it's 2030. I don't know if it's 2031, but I absolutely believe it gets there.", "timestamp": "0:06:09", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,379 since 2026-05-11); 2031-05-11 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "eric-weiss", "name": "Eric Weiss", "handles": { "x": "@Eric_BIGfund", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://big.fund" }, "category": [ "fund_manager", "bitcoin_advocate", "investor" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 64300, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/eric_bigfund" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 1, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's recent correlation with equities won't last; a divergence is coming and it won't be subtle. As the tariff war escalates and stocks bleed, Wall Street will eventually realize there's an alternative: bitcoin. The moment capital truly pivots, BTC doesn't just hold up, it outperforms dramatically.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-04-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-poised-for-violent-decoupling-from-global-markets-expert-says/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin's recent correlation with equities won't last. A divergence is coming and it won't be subtle. ... As the tariff war escalates and stocks bleed, Wall Street will eventually realize there's an alternative: bitcoin. No earnings risk. No geopolitics. Just math. The moment capital truly pivots, BTC doesn't just hold up, it outperforms dramatically.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "From $83,860 (Apr 2025) BTC did rally to $126,296 (a dramatic move), but by as_of it has fallen back to $58,161 alongside the same risk-asset weakness β€” the durable decorrelation/outperformance thesis is not borne out." } ] }, { "id": "eric-yakes", "name": "Eric Yakes", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 23, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 3, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 3, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will hit new all-time highs in the first half of 2026.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-06-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-12", "specificity": 44, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/94eqWcwWA5n1yOKSQfbF/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I'm expecting Bitcoin to hit all time highs in the first half of next year. We're happy.", "timestamp": "0:00:50", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Expected new ATHs in H1 2026; deadline 2026-06-30 elapsed with high_by_deadline only $97,964 β€” far short of the prior ATH (~$126k), and BTC ended at $58,161." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $10 million in roughly seven years (by ~2032), happening relatively rapidly.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000000, "deadline": "2032-09-11", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-11", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/fqkXaW8bR1Temn98ocyO/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitcoin is going to be at $10 million in probably like seven years. I think it's going to happen relatively rapidly.", "timestamp": "0:00:26", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-09-11); 2032-09-11 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach somewhere in the $150,000–$180,000 range near-term, based on prior cycle patterns.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-03-25", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/eric-yakes-1-trillion-flowing-into-bitcoin-bullish-report-reveals-massive-potential-for-institutional-nation-state-adoption", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "So we're like near term type changes. I'm expecting somewhere in the 150 to 180 range, kind of just based on prior cycles and what we would return to similar to your argument.", "timestamp": "0:26:35", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called near-term $150k-$180k from $87,428 (Mar 2025); BTC's high_since_made was $126,296, never reaching the band, and price has since fallen to $58,161 β€” the near-term window has elapsed without hitting the range." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is a strong answer for rotating technology investors and gold bugs, with sovereign demand next; once Bitcoin reaches roughly a $5 trillion market cap that could be the 'suddenly' breakout moment, with more and more bullish headlines along the way.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-24", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/AyIFkb0PGBSxBr3CTMX3/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Where are these technology investors and gold bugs going to be rotating once they feel like they're really getting to peak euphoria? I think Bitcoin's a very strong answer for that. And everything about the thesis for Bitcoin is playing out perfectly. I think it comes from Sovereign's next. I just think we're going to start seeing more and more headlines. Once Bitcoin gets into the $5 trillion market cap range, that could be the suddenly moment.", "timestamp": "0:00:45", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Forward-looking bullish/breakout call made 2026-03-24. As of 2026-06-20 BTC is ~$63,556 (market cap roughly $1.25T, far below the ~$5T 'suddenly moment' threshold) and made a 2026 drawdown low of $59,073 on 2026-06-05 rather than breaking out. Direction has been down, not up, since the call." } ] }, { "id": "evan-kaloudis", "name": "Evan Kaloudis", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 24, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 2, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "This cycle's blow-off top will reach at least $200k, likely in late December or January.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2022-01", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-03-03", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://assets.podhome.fm/8029725b-0319-44b9-4793-08dc404e83a4/transcript_509437b2-6957-4342-8d2a-e101e10b0802638462900504240782.html", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I really do think we're gonna have a similar situation to the last cycle where we have a crazy blow off top. I think it's probably gonna happen in, you know, late December or or January ... I don't think it's unreasonable to think that's gonna be at least a $200,000 Bitcoin", "timestamp": "1:58:14", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2022-01-28 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could hit half a million dollars ($500k) this cycle.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": "2022", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-03-03", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://assets.podhome.fm/8029725b-0319-44b9-4793-08dc404e83a4/transcript_509437b2-6957-4342-8d2a-e101e10b0802638462900504240782.html", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I don't think it's unreasonable to expect it to hit half a $1,000,000 this cycle ... Definitely see us, like, going to 500 k or something and then coming back all the way down to a 100", "timestamp": "1:58:30", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2022-12-31 horizon; never reached $500,000." } ] }, { "id": "felix-zulauf", "name": "Felix Zulauf", "handles": { "x": "FelixZulauf", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.felixzulauf.com/" }, "category": [ "macro_investor", "market_strategist" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 300, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/felixzulauf" }, "score": 83.3, "score_adj": 100, "avg_specificity": 8, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 3, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 0, "partial": 1, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Potential short-term run in Bitcoin to $115k-$120k (Zulauf's own verbatim figure: '$125k potential'; 'as a store of value, it's nice as long as it goes up. And I think it goes up') before a major correction.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 120000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2024-12-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.cmgwealth.com/ri/on-my-radar-felix-zulauf-on-liquidity-and-markets/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Crypto and Bitcoin ... Potential short-term run to $115-120k before a major correction. ... The record inflows into Bitcoin in the last few weeks are another sign of what you see at market tops, not bottoms (referring to both Bitcoin and stock markets).", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $124,533 in [2024-12-13..2025-09-13], reaching the $120,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Expect a 50-80% correction in Bitcoin when liquidity tightens.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-13", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.cmgwealth.com/ri/on-my-radar-felix-zulauf-on-liquidity-and-markets/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Crypto and Bitcoin ... Correlating to liquidity, expect 50-80% correction when liquidity tightens. Potential short-term run to $115-120k before a major correction.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Short-term run exceeded $115-120k (high $126,296) then crashed to $58,000 = ~54% drawdown, squarely in the predicted 50-80% correction band." }, { "claim_text": "Record inflows into Bitcoin in the last few weeks are a sign of what you see at market tops, not bottoms (a bearish top-warning).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-13", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.cmgwealth.com/ri/on-my-radar-felix-zulauf-on-liquidity-and-markets/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The record inflows into Bitcoin in the last few weeks are another sign of what you see at market tops, not bottoms (referring to both Bitcoin and stock markets).", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Top warning at $101k was premature β€” BTC rose ~25% more to $126,296 before topping, though it did ultimately top and is now below the entry at $58,161." } ] }, { "id": "frances-coppola", "name": "Frances Coppola", "handles": { "x": "@Frances_Coppola", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.coppolacomment.com" }, "category": [ "economist", "columnist", "btc-critic" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 86302, "as_of": "2023-02-10", "source": "https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q87396703" }, "score": 100, "score_adj": 100, "avg_specificity": 22, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "I hope bitcoin crashes and burns because I am so bloody furious, but I think it will be a while yet before it does β€” maybe about June. The cause of bitcoin's upcoming crash will be an epic battle between the Wild West of crypto and regulators.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2021-06-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-01-02", "specificity": 44, "citation": { "url": "https://amycastor.com/2021/01/02/2021-the-year-of-comedy-gold-and-other-bitcoin-skeptic-predictions/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I hope bitcoin crashes and burns because I am so bloody furious, but I think it will be a while yet before it doesβ€”maybe about June, she said. The cause of bitcoin's upcoming crash, she believes, will be an epic battle between the Wild West of crypto and regulators.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC crashed from ~$64,899 high to ~$27,678 low around May/June 2021 (~50%+), the major crash 'about June' as predicted." }, { "claim_text": "I would expect that there would be further falls in crypto markets as long as this tightening phase goes on. This time is different, because we've come into a monetary tightening cycle that we haven't seen in the whole of bitcoin's history, and it's possible bitcoin might not come back to its previous growth cycle.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-09-27", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://denniskneale.com/crypto-defined-frances-coppola/700", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "I would expect that there would be further falls in crypto markets as long as this tightening phase goes on. ... This time is different, because we've come into a monetary tightening cycle that we haven't seen in the whole of bitcoin's history, and it's possible bitcoin might not come back to its previous growth cycle.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Further falls did occur during the tightening phase β€” BTC dropped from $19,078 to a $15,460 low after the Sep 2022 call." } ] }, { "id": "frank-holmes", "name": "Frank Holmes", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Frank Holmes (executive chairman of Hive Digital Technologies) predicted $250,000 Bitcoin if the Clarity Act passes.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Does-Strategy-even-move-Bitcoins-price--Saylors-Explanation-might-surprise-you--EP-1504-e3jciij", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "the executive chairman of Hive Digital Technologies, Frank Holmes, a.k.a. Bulldog Holmes on Twitter. And he was saying, listen, if the Clarity Act passes, like we're going to see two hundred fifty thousand dollar Bitcoin.", "timestamp": "0:05:04", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,066 since 2026-05-14); 2029-05-14 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "fred-krueger", "name": "Fred Krueger", "handles": { "x": "@dotkrueger", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://fredkrueger.org/" }, "category": [ "commentator", "perma-bull", "power-law-modeler", "author" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 303000, "as_of": "2026-06-24", "source": "https://xbeast.io/twitter-influencers/dotkrueger" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 48, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 4, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 4, "partial": 0, "pending": 6 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could reach $400,000 by the end of 2024 (extrapolating from Bitcoin spot-ETF inflow trends and the power law model).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 400000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-06-13", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://news.wikibit.com/en/202406137584588525.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin could reach $400,000 by the end of 2024 and $600,000 by the end of 2025.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $108,389 through the 2024-12-31 horizon; never reached $400,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could reach $600,000 by the end of 2025 (power law + ETF-flow extrapolation).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 600000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-06-13", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://news.wikibit.com/en/202406137584588525.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin could reach $400,000 by the end of 2024 and $600,000 by the end of 2025.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $600,000." }, { "claim_text": "In a scenario titled 'The Final Run / The Last Rally', Krueger forecast Bitcoin rising from about $150,000 to $600,000 within 90 days starting July 21, 2025 (i.e. roughly $600K by October 2025), driven by a U.S. Treasury auction failure, BRICS adoption, and a 'New Bretton Woods' dollar restructuring; he assigned the broad scenario a high probability.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 600000, "deadline": "2025-10-19", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-20", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coingabbar.com/en/price-prediction/600k-bitcoin-prediction-goes-viral-bubble-or-real-possibility", "source_type": "article", "quote": "from $150,000 to $600,000 within 90 days, starting July 21, 2025", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-10-19 horizon; never reached $600,000." }, { "claim_text": "Per the Bitcoin Power Law model Krueger co-popularized, Bitcoin reaches approximately $1 million per coin around 2033.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2033-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-08", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.mexc.co/en-IN/learn/article/who-is-fred-krueger-the-bitcoin-bull-behind-the-power-law/1", "source_type": "article", "quote": "projects Bitcoin reaching approximately $1 million per coin around 2033", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $67,264 since 2026-06-08); 2033-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Per the Bitcoin Power Law model, Bitcoin reaches approximately $10 million per coin by 2045.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000000, "deadline": "2045-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-08", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.mexc.co/en-IN/learn/article/who-is-fred-krueger-the-bitcoin-bull-behind-the-power-law/1", "source_type": "article", "quote": "projects....$10 million per coin by 2045", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $67,264 since 2026-06-08); 2045-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Krueger said 2026 will be 'an awesome year' for Bitcoin (ultra-bullish outlook for the year).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-24", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/2026-will-be-awesome-for-bitcoin-investor-fred-krueger", "source_type": "article", "quote": "an awesome year", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "2026 window (deadline 2026-12-31) not elapsed; BTC currently $58,161, below the $64,068 made price β€” outcome undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Based on a chart of Bitcoin's historical price-doubling periods (BTC hitting ~$128k in October 2025), Krueger suggested the next major doubling target is $256,000. No firm deadline was stated by Krueger; the article estimated mid-2027 by extrapolating average historical doubling time.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": 256000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinpaper.com/32184/bitcoin-price-to-256000-new-cycle-analysis-explains-when", "source_type": "article", "quote": "the next major market target could now be $256,000", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "low", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$256k doubling target estimated mid-2027; window not elapsed and current $58,161 is far from target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will make a new all-time high in 2026 despite the current bear talk.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-23", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/dotkrueger/status/2069255984644845940", "source_type": "x", "quote": "How Bitcoin is going to take over the world.\n\n1. We're going to make a new high THIS YEAR despite all the bear talk.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "New-ATH-in-2026 window not elapsed; ATH stands at $126,296 and current price $58,161 is nowhere near, but year is still open." }, { "claim_text": "The Bitcoin bear market is over and the bull market has resumed.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-14", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/dotkrueger/status/2066270428059034063", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The bear market has been canceled. \nWe now resume the Bull market. \n\nThank you for your attention to this matter.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "No bull resumption β€” after the 2026-06-14 call at $65,707, BTC peaked at only $67,264 then fell to $58,161 (~11% down)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's bear market is ending soon, since historical bear markets last ~12-13 months and this one is 9 months in.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-09", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/dotkrueger/status/2071461671143428509", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin has been going down for 9 months.\nHere's the history of bear markets:\n\n2013–15: ~13 months\n2017–18: ~12 months\n2021–22: ~12 months\n\nNo matter how you look at it, the end is near.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Falsifiable timing call that BTC's ~9-month downtrend ends near the historical ~12-13 month bear-market length, i.e. within roughly 3 months." } ] }, { "id": "fundstrat-tom-lee", "name": "Tom Lee", "handles": { "x": "@fundstrat", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://fundstrat.com" }, "category": [ "analyst", "fund_manager", "tv_commentator" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 0, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitter.com/fundstrat" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 46, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 10, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 10, "partial": 0, "pending": 5 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Tom Lee reaffirmed his $100,000 per-token year-end target for Bitcoin in 2021, saying he still thought it could exit the year over $100,000 despite the prior week's collapse.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-05-24", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/24/bitcoin-bull-tom-lee-still-sees-100000-by-year-end.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Wall Street strategist Tom Lee told CNBC on Monday that last week's bitcoin collapse has not shaken his bullish resolve, saying he's standing by his $100,000 per token year-end price target. ... 'I still think it could exit the year over $100,000.'", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Tom Lee stood by his forecast that Bitcoin would reach $150,000, expecting a sharp rebound in the second half of 2024 as the 10-year Mt. Gox overhang cleared.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-07-01", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/fundstrats-tom-lee-predicts-pretty-sharp-rebound-for-bitcoin-expects-to-see-150k-btc-this-year/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Lee also stated he expects 'a pretty sharp rebound' for bitcoin in the second half of 2024 ... supporting his $150K forecast. 'I think it's a reason to actually expect a pretty sharp rebound in the second half.'", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $108,389 through the 2024-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000." }, { "claim_text": "On CNBC's Closing Bell, Tom Lee said Bitcoin would follow a similar halving cycle to the past, implying around $250,000 per bitcoin in 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-11", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-surpasses-101k-tom-lee-predicts-250k-by-2025-in-cnbc-interview/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "We think it's going to follow a similar halving cycle that we've seen in the past, that would imply something around $250,000 per bitcoin in 2025.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $250,000." }, { "claim_text": "Tom Lee told CNBC he saw an end-of-year target for Bitcoin between $200,000 and $250,000 for 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-13", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/01/14/bitcoin-bull-tom-lee-sees-btc-reaching-as-high-as-250-k-by-year-end", "source_type": "article", "quote": "end of year target for bitcoin between $200,000 to $250,000", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "In an interview with Anthony Pompliano, Tom Lee argued Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving cycle is breaking down, saying the old model where Bitcoin peaks 12-18 months after each halving no longer explains the current market and that price is now driven by liquidity and institutional flows.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-24", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://icobench.com/news/tom-lee-bitcoins-classic-four-year-cycle-is-over-as-institutional-money-takes-over/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The old model, where Bitcoin peaks 12 to 18 months after each halving, no longer explains the current market. ... Price movements today are far more aligned with global liquidity and institutional flows than with Bitcoin's internal supply schedule.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC topped ~$126k and crashed to $58,161 roughly 12-18 months after the April 2024 halving β€” consistent with the traditional cycle, contradicting the 'cycle is broken' thesis." }, { "claim_text": "On CNBC, Tom Lee said Bitcoin could still rally into year-end 2025 to $150,000-$200,000 (and Ethereum to ~$7,000).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-03", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-can-still-reach-150k-200k-lee", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Eventually we consolidate and then we rally into year end β€” $150,000 to $200,000 for Bitcoin.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $110,749 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000." }, { "claim_text": "Cooling his earlier $250K call, Tom Lee told CNBC it was still very likely Bitcoin would be above $100,000 before year-end 2025 and 'maybe even' set a new high.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-27", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:0107f7c76094b:0-tom-lee-cools-on-250k-bitcoin-call-year-end-ath-now-just-a-maybe/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I think it's still very likely that Bitcoin is going to be above $100,000 before year-end, and maybe even to a new high.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC never regained $100k by year-end 2025 β€” high by 2025-12-31 deadline was only $94,641." }, { "claim_text": "On CNBC's Squawk Box, Tom Lee revived his target, saying Bitcoin could reach between $200,000 and $250,000 by the end of 2026 and that he doesn't think Bitcoin has peaked.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-06", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tom-lee-dusts-off-failed-130110540.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Lee stated Bitcoin could reach between $200,000 and $250,000 this year (2026), according to remarks he made to CNBC on Monday, January 6, 2026.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2026-01-06); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Tom Lee believes Bitcoin should exceed one million dollars over time as it supplants gold.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2025-08-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/tom-lee-bitcoin-will-set-new-ath-this-year-corporate-treasury-boom-strategy-shaking-up-stock-market", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think Bitcoin should be over a million over time. And then I kind of prescribing to the view that there's probably a chance that maybe the four-year cycle's ending for Bitcoin because of the way institutional adoption of that thesis is taking place.", "timestamp": "0:09:47", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-08-05); 2030-08-05 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Tom Lee expects Bitcoin to build on its current ~$120,000 level and reach $200,000 to $250,000 before the end of 2025.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2025", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/tom-lee-bitcoin-will-set-new-ath-this-year-corporate-treasury-boom-strategy-shaking-up-stock-market", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think Bitcoin should really build upon this 120 before the end of the year. So 200,000, maybe 250.", "timestamp": "0:10:18", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$200-250k by end-2025 never reached β€” high by deadline was $126,296, far below the band." }, { "claim_text": "Tom Lee states that if gold settles at $5,000 Bitcoin's terminal fair value would be $1.6–$2 million once it matches gold's network value, arguing rising gold is helping Bitcoin's future price.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 1600000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-23", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Why-Bitcoins-Rally-Is-Just-Getting-Started--Tom-Lee-e39v8d6", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "let's say gold settles at $5,000. That puts fair value of Bitcoin, you know, like $1.6 to $2 million if it matches gold's network value. So I think it's actually helping Bitcoin's future terminal price.", "timestamp": "0:01:55", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended 'terminal/future' fair-value claim ($1.6-2M) with no deadline; window not elapsed and current price is $58,161." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $1 million.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-05-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/fundstrat/status/2052174227068113027", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$1 milllion bitcoin $BTC", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-05-06); 2032-05-06 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's total value reaching the ~$16 trillion value of above-ground gold seems reasonable, as a minimum target before reevaluating whether it has peaked.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-07-22", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/tom-lee-bullish-macro-outlook-optimal-bitcoin-allocation-and-sp-to-15000", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "when does Bitcoin have to reevaluate whether it's peaking is when the value of Bitcoin exceeds the value of above ground gold today? And that's $16 trillion... it'll be some multiple of what gold is today, but I would say reaching $16 trillion seems somewhat reasonable.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended long-term target of ~$16T market cap (BTC ~$800k+); high since made only $126,296 β€” far from target, no deadline so window not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Tom Lee is calling for Bitcoin to reach approximately $150,000 by the end of 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2025", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/news-block-bitcoin-price-consolidates-fed-dissent-raises-concerns-boomers-guard-real-estate-wealth-strivesemler-merger-builds-10900-bitcoin-treasury", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Other big names like Tom Lee and Anthony Scaramucci are still calling for those kinds of prices to happen by the end of this", "timestamp": "0:02:26", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin reaches a price target of roughly $150,000 by the end of 2024, which he considers achievable if the S&P rallies into year-end.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2024", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-07-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/tom-lee-bullish-macro-outlook-optimal-bitcoin-allocation-and-sp-to-15000", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And he triangulates to $150,000 roughly by the end of the year. And I think that's pretty achievable. I mean, it really principally only happens if the S&P actually can rally into the end of the year. And that's our base case.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $108,389 through the 2024-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000." } ] }, { "id": "gareth-soloway", "name": "Gareth Soloway", "handles": { "x": "@GarethSoloway", "nostr": null, "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/@GarethSolowayProTrader", "web": null }, "category": [ "trader", "technical-analyst" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 243100, "as_of": "2026-06-24", "source": "https://tradersunion.com/persons/gareth-soloway/" }, "score": 73.1, "score_adj": 79.1, "avg_specificity": 31, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 13, "counts": { "correct": 8, "wrong": 2, "partial": 3, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "BTC, having broken its $65K top, will break $20K support and head down to the $12,000 region and lower; he announced his beginning hodl position at $19K and will add increments as bitcoin falls toward $12K (with a 3-6 week bounce to $25K-$30K expected first).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 12000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-06-21", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptodaily.co.uk/2022/06/veteran-trader-gareth-soloway-says-bitcoin-to-potentially-go-under-12k", "source_type": "article", "quote": "at $19k I announced I started my beginning hodl position, and so...I will add increments to it as bitcoin falls further towards 12k.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC did break $20K to a low of $15,460 (and the $25-30K bounce occurred), but never reached the core $12,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "If stock markets had a significant downturn / panic, Bitcoin could dip toward the $15,000 bracket; near-term he saw resistance around $47,000 and warned upside may be capped pending ETF approval (expected by year-end or early 2024).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 15000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-10-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/market-expert-gareth-soloway-explores-bitcoins-future-amidst-rising-treasury-yields-and-etf-speculation/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "You'll probably get [an ETF] approval by year-end or early in 2024. If bitcoin is still up here, you may not go higher.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC was not capped near $47K; it rallied hard post-ETF to a high of $126,296 and never dipped to the $15K bracket (low $33,400)." }, { "claim_text": "If we saw a 50% drop in the stock market, I do see bitcoin retesting that $15,000 level.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 15000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-01-28", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/market-strategist-gareth-soloway-eyes-15k-bitcoin-in-event-of-stock-market-slide/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If we saw a 50% drop in the stock market, I do see bitcoin retesting that $15,000 level", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "No 50% stock crash occurred and BTC never retested $15,000 (low since made $41,618); the predicted retest did not happen." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could reach $107,000 or $108,000, igniting the bulls to the maximum, before a pullback to about $74,000-$75,000 in 2025 (roughly a 30% drawdown).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 108000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-05", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://investingnews.com/gareth-soloway-december-2024/", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "US$107,000 or US$108,000 ... would ignite the bulls to the maximum ... let's say, we could pull back to US$75,000 next year", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2024-12-05..2025-12-31], reaching the $108,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "After topping near $107K-$108K, Bitcoin will pull back to about $74,000-$75,000 next year (2025), a ~30% drawdown.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 75000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-05", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://investingnews.com/gareth-soloway-december-2024/", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "let's say, we could pull back to US$75,000 next year", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC pulled back into the $74-75K zone in 2025 β€” low by the 2025-12-31 deadline was $74,421, matching the ~30% drawdown call." }, { "claim_text": "Short-term bullish: once Bitcoin breaks through $74,000 support, the upside move takes it to $80,000 to $85,000 (short-term, not a midterm/cycle bull call).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-03-15", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinpedia.org/news/gareth-soloway-reveals-next-bull-targets-for-bitcoin-ethereum-and-xrp/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Once we break through $74,000, the upside move takes you to $80,000 to $85,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-03-15..2026-07-01], reaching the $80,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's $80,000-$85,000 consolidation is a bear flag; unless it clears $85,000, the next downside target is $50,000 (a drop of roughly 38%). Neutral-to-bearish on a directional basis near-term.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-03", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/gareth-soloway-warns-bitcoin-could-drop-to-50k-as-bear-flag-tightens-at-85000/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "his next downside target is $50,000, a drop of roughly 38%.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC failed to clear $85K (high $82,814) and fell as predicted, but bottomed at $58,000 β€” never reaching the $50,000 downside target." }, { "claim_text": "After breakdown confirmed: first support $65,700 (expect a bounce), then accumulate from $60,000; next downside target $50,000 if $60,000 fails; worst-case $35,000-$40,000 based on a head-and-shoulders measured move on the weekly chart. Intra-bear-market rally, not a new bull run.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 35000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinpedia.org/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-analyst-reveals-best-and-worst-case-scenarios-as-breakdown-confirms/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The head and shoulders formation on the weekly chart provides the mathematical basis for the $35,000 target.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Breakdown confirmed and BTC fell below $60K (low $58,000), but did not reach the $50,000 or worst-case $35-40K measured-move targets." }, { "claim_text": "Soloway warns that if Bitcoin breaks the lower band of its parallel channel, the macro pattern targets $60K then $50K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-05-28", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/GarethSoloway/status/2059960226120335668", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#Bitcoin tags lower band of parallel channel. This is a big test for bulls vs. bears. It breaks, the macro pattern begins to play out toward $60K, then $50K. Can the bulls hold the line?", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-05-28); 2027-02-28 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could snap back to $80k–$85k based on an intact daily bull flag pattern.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 85000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-25", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/GarethSoloway/status/2026659556181553332", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Crypto surging. Bull flag on BTC daily still intact, alts potentially squeezing. While it isn't the start of a new bull market imo, snap back to 80k, maybe 85k is possible on Bitcoin. Charts are charts, all about probability, I have been alerting.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC snapped back into the $80-85K band β€” high since made was $82,814 from a $67,993 spot." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's micro bull flag points to upside in the $80,000–$85,000 range.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 85000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/GarethSoloway/status/2022351409782640927", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin showing signs of life as it pushes higher. Micro bull flag continues to try and play out. If it does, upside between $80,000-$85,000 is likely.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC reached the $80,000-$85,000 range β€” high since made $82,814 from a $68,812 spot." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's near-term chart is bullish with potential upside near $100K in January.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2026-01-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-30", "specificity": 90, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/GarethSoloway/status/2006013768304640032", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin still has a bullish near-term chart, potential upside near $100K in January. Interesting if tax loss selling is keeping it down into yr end.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $97,964 in [2025-12-30..2026-01-31], reaching the $100,000 target (within 2.0% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "After nearly tagging 80k, Bitcoin is likely to bounce near-term.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-21", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/GarethSoloway/status/1991857715283665066", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin nearly tagged 80k. A bounce near-term is likely. Stocks are trying to gain traction, but many investors will be skeptical on holding into the weekend, especially ahead of a short trading week.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "After nearly tagging $80K (spot $85,069), BTC bounced near-term to a high of $97,964." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will bounce but is ultimately headed down to $73k-$75k.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 75000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/GarethSoloway/status/1990789971213758879", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Markets on shaky ground as de-risking continues. Like past cycles in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin topped 4-6 weeks prior to the S&P. This is psychological as it naturally begins in the higher risk assets. I expect a bounce in BTC, but ultimately $73k-$75k.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC bounced (high $97,964) and then fell through the $73-75K target on its way to $58,000 β€” both elements realized." } ] }, { "id": "gary-cardone", "name": "Gary Cardone", "handles": { "x": "@GaryCardone", "nostr": null, "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/user/garycardone", "web": "https://garycardone.me/" }, "category": [ "entrepreneur", "bitcoin-investor", "commentator" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 97800, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/GaryCardone" }, "score": 56.2, "score_adj": 51.1, "avg_specificity": 22, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 8, "counts": { "correct": 4, "wrong": 3, "partial": 1, "pending": 6 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "I think we've seen the low at the $49,000 range. It bounced hard off that.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 49000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2024-09-12", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/watch-bitcoin-crack-79-000-034535857.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I think we've seen the low at the $49,000 range. It bounced hard off that.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's low was $57,311, held at/above $49,000 (through 2025-09-12)." }, { "claim_text": "I say $57,500 is our low and $128,000, $130,000 for February. (BTC year-end / early-2025 roundtable; February high target of $128k-$130k)", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 128000, "deadline": "2025-02-28", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-10-11", "specificity": 74, "citation": { "url": "https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/will-bitcoin-break-100000-experts-weigh-in-on-year-end-predictions", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I say $57,500 is our low and $128,000, $130,000 for February.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $109,358 through the 2025-02-28 horizon; never reached $128,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $1,000,000 within the next two years.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2027-07-18", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-18", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://phemex.com/news/article/gary-cardone-predicts-bitcoin-to-hit-1-million-by-2027-13098", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Gary Cardone has forecasted that Bitcoin will reach $1,000,000 within the next two years.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-07-18); 2027-07-18 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Warned the sell-off could deepen with Bitcoin potentially falling to $38,000 ('There are no buyers'); said he would buy 1,000 Bitcoin at $55,000 but was 'done overpaying.'", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 38000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-07", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/gary-cardone-bitcoin-38000-cancerous-altcoins-ethereum/cZ0stTLRe6a", "source_type": "article", "quote": "There are no buyers ... the sell-off could deepen, with Bitcoin potentially falling to $38,000 ... Cardone said he would buy 1,000 Bitcoin at $55,000 but was 'done overpaying.'", "timestamp": "2026-06-07", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Sell-off deepened directionally (low $58,000) but BTC never reached the $38,000 target nor even the $55,000 buy level." }, { "claim_text": "ALL time high? sure I will take a side I don't see it getting there by then. You are wanting to go long - 12/31/23 btc sees AtH. I will take the other side I don't see how that happens.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2023-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-12-23", "specificity": 54, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/GaryCardone/status/1738363662304244072", "source_type": "x", "quote": "@GoingParabolic ALL time high? sure I will take a side I don’t see it getting there by then. You are wanting to go long - 12/31/23 btc sees AtH. I will take the other side I don’t see how that happens. Wager count; to keep it pure we must measure with only one , unit #btc I suggest or a", "timestamp": "2023-12-23T00:59:28.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Took the no-ATH-by-12/31/23 side; high_by_deadline only $44,034 vs prior ATH ~$69k β€” ATH not reached." }, { "claim_text": "four year cycle is a joke, bitcoin is bigger than a supply cycle....and wallstreet flows are collasol comparatively speaking.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-08", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/GaryCardone/status/1965163672306844044", "source_type": "x", "quote": "four year cycle is a joke, bitcoin is bigger than a supply cycle....and wallstreet flows are collasol comparatively speaking. \nhttps://t.co/VYPJCzXhhY", "timestamp": "2025-09-08T21:21:45.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claimed the 4-year cycle is irrelevant, but BTC peaked ~$126,296 then crashed to $58k β€” a textbook post-halving cycle decline." }, { "claim_text": "nothing to see here, just a bunch of idiots buying the top... you guys were warned (top-is-in warning, mid-November 2025).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-15", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/GaryCardone/status/1989691731084742760", "source_type": "x", "quote": "nothing to see here, just a bunch of idiots buying the top...\n\nyou guys were warned....bitcoin investors today are like aliens to the crypto bro, you have no idea how these freaks think...\n\nbitcoin is a freak event for freaks of freedom. https://t.co/7Dq6TquFEe", "timestamp": "2025-11-15T13:47:30.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Top-is-in warning at $95,545; high_since_made only $97,964 then fell to $58,000 β€” the top was effectively in." }, { "claim_text": "we are going lower.... bitcoin spends more time talking about those dumping their bitcoin rather than talking about buyers.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-10", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/GaryCardone/status/2064717126036836671", "source_type": "x", "quote": "@GMONEYPEPE and that should say everything.....we are going lower.... bitcoin spends more time talking about those dumping their bitcoin rather than talking about buyers.\n\nbuyers are badly needed, not talkers, not philosophers, not the 30 million dollar club predictors, we need real buyers", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T14:31:38.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called 'going lower' at $61,449; BTC fell to a low of $58,000 (current $58,161)." }, { "claim_text": "I am willing to wager $100k that Btc by 2030 doesn't see $1 million!", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2030-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-13", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/GaryCardone/status/2065899300614254771", "source_type": "x", "quote": "@Adam_Invests @dotkrueger I am willing to wager $100k that Btc by 2030 doesn’t see $1 million!\n\nBulls? Anyone?", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T20:49:10.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Wager BTC stays under $1M by 2030-12-31; window open and BTC is far below ($58,161)." }, { "claim_text": "btc has a lot of wood to chop ... hold $60K, breech with vicious momentum; $66, 69, 73, 75, 77 80, 83-88, 90 to 100, 100 to 126. And then it must make an all time high (summer-2026 roadmap back above the prior ATH).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 126296, "deadline": "2026-09-22", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-17", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/GaryCardone/status/2067360026063184114", "source_type": "x", "quote": "@FrontRangeHODL IMO: btc has a lot of wood to chop, it has to do the following things during the Summer;\n\nBTC has a Proof of Work in front of it;\n\nhold $60K, breech with vicious momentum; $66, 69, 73, 75, 77 80, 83-88, 90 to 100, 100 to 126 .\n\nAnd then it must make an all time high that", "timestamp": "2026-06-17T21:33:34.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $66,384 since 2026-06-17); 2026-09-22 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will make a new all-time high in 2026.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-30", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/GaryCardone/status/1984037363618869357", "source_type": "x", "quote": "2026 Bitcoin all time high", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "New ATH in 2026; high_by_deadline so far only $111,629 vs ATH $126,296, and over half of 2026 remains (as_of 2026-06-30)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's market cap will reach $3 trillion within 18 months of August 2024.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-02", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-08-02", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/GaryCardone/status/1819384517062181035", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I predict $3 trillion market cap inbound to Bitcoin in under 18 months!", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$3T market cap (~$150k BTC) by 2026-02 not reached; peak high_by_deadline $126,296 implies ~$2.5T." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will drop to $50K before reaching $150K, and to $10K before reaching $78.5K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-06-12", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/GaryCardone/status/2065511250080023002", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Cardone: btc sees $50k before 150k, $10k and 58.5 before 78.5 $10k", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-12); 2027-06-12 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Cardone expects Bitcoin to drop to $35K, making it a buy at that level.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 35000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-06-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/GaryCardone/status/2065182204875923533", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I say buy two btc at 35, and spend 70k, versus 70k of space x....", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-11); 2028-06-11 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "giovanni-santostasi", "name": "Giovanni Santostasi", "handles": { "x": "@Giovann35084111", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://giovannisantostasi.medium.com" }, "category": [ "analyst", "model-builder", "physicist" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 0, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "unverified - could not retrieve @Giovann35084111 follower count (X auth-walled, nitter returned empty)" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 48, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 3, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 3, "partial": 0, "pending": 7 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin Power Law model (Santostasi's) predicts BTC will reach $218,875 at its cycle peak in November 2025, before descending to $96,677 at its bottom in December 2026.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 218875, "deadline": "2025-11-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-04-24", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptopotato.com/heres-the-exact-top-of-the-next-bitcoin-cycle-power-law-says/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The model predicts that Bitcoin will reach $218,875 at its cycle peak in November 2025, before descending to $96,677 at its bottom in December 2026. ... The man behind the model – Giovanni Santostasi – is a former physics professor, who believes Bitcoin's long-term price trajectory follows a 'power law' relationship with time.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-11-30 horizon; never reached $218,875." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's cycle peak is estimated to be around $200,000 and is supposed to occur in November 2025 (stated by Santostasi in his own Medium write-up).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2025-11-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-08-29", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://giovannisantostasi.medium.com/understanding-bitcoins-predictability-a-monte-carlo-simulation-of-power-law-dynamics-acc51b3b8589", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "This peak is estimated to be around $200,000 and it is supposed to occur in November 2025.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-11-30 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach roughly $1 million per coin in about eight years (i.e., ~2034); Santostasi assigns ~90% probability. Corroborated by his own Medium article stating 'it will take about 10 years to reach 1 million BTC.'", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2034-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-03-20", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://giovannisantostasi.medium.com/the-bitcoin-power-law-theory-962dfaf99ee9", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "it will take about 10 years to reach 1 million BTC", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-03-20); 2034-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach roughly $10 million per coin in about twenty years (i.e., ~2046), per Santostasi's power law.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000000, "deadline": "2046-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-13", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/when-bitcoin-could-reach-10m-power-law/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Santostasi argues Bitcoin's historical data indicates roughly $1 million per coin in approximately eight years ... His model suggests $10 million per coin in roughly twenty years. ... 'With bitcoin we found a similar relationship where the price is proportional to the time ... that power is 5.8.'", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,066 since 2026-05-13); 2046-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "By the end of 2026, Giovanni expects BTC prices to reach $120,000 per token.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 120000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-15", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/bitcoin-future-giovanni-santostasi-predicts-1-million-2034-1796981", "source_type": "article", "quote": "By the end of 2026, Giovanni expects BTC prices to reach $120,000 per token.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $81,650 since 2026-05-15); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Next year (2027), Santostasi thinks Bitcoin prices are likely to reach $150,000 per token.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2027-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-15", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/bitcoin-future-giovanni-santostasi-predicts-1-million-2034-1796981", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Next year, he thinks Bitcoin prices are likely to reach $150,000 per token.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $81,650 since 2026-05-15); 2027-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The Bitcoin power law predicts Bitcoin will reach close to $1 million in approximately eight years (by ~2034), with ~90% confidence.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2034", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-12", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/giovanni-santostasi-bitcoins-power-law-why-1m-is-coming-by-2034", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "this is what the power law predicts, that Bitcoin will be close to a million dollars in eight years. But you see, that is almost half of all the age of Bitcoin", "timestamp": "0:20:09", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,066 since 2026-05-12); 2034-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The Bitcoin power law predicts Bitcoin will reach $10 million in approximately 20 years (by ~2046).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000000, "deadline": "2046", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-12", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/giovanni-santostasi-bitcoins-power-law-why-1m-is-coming-by-2034", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "By 20 years, that is when actually Bitcoin will be $10 million if we continue to follow the power law in 20 years. That is the prediction.", "timestamp": "0:20:35", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,066 since 2026-05-12); 2046-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The power law floor for Bitcoin will be close to $150,000 next year (i.e., ~2027).", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2027", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-12", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/giovanni-santostasi-bitcoins-power-law-why-1m-is-coming-by-2034", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And if you do then a diagram of a price based on hash rate, you get that floor. That floor comes from this other power law. So we're supposed to be at 120. Where are we supposed to be, let's say, next year? Do you know? I think we close to almost like 150.", "timestamp": "0:52:16", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $57,718 in [2026-05-12..2026-07-01], below the $150,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "The Bitcoin price bottom will occur in August (possibly as a continuation of the current bottom).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-15", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/2066474271782691034", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Yes, the bottom is in August. But it could be a continuation of this bottom.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bottom-in-August call made 2026-06-15; August 2026 window has not elapsed (as_of 2026-06-30)." } ] }, { "id": "grant-cardone", "name": "Grant Cardone", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin should be at $150,000–$190,000 and will reach that level, it is just a matter of when.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Will-The-Bitcoin-Bear-Market-Ever-End---Anthony-Pompliano-e3l4rov", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I believe it's underpriced right now. I think it should be $150,000 today, maybe $180,000, $190,000. And it's just a matter of when it goes there.", "timestamp": "0:08:36", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended $150k–$190k 'matter of when' call; not yet reached (high_since_made $65,553) but no deadline elapsed." } ] }, { "id": "greg-foss", "name": "Greg Foss", "handles": { "x": "@FossGregfoss", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "credit-markets", "macro", "bitcoin-advocate" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 166800, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/FossGregfoss" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 24, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 2, "partial": 0, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Foss lays out a long-run case that if Bitcoin becomes a global reserve asset (oil/gas priced in BTC within ~10 years) and captures ~5% of the world's ~$900T in total assets, that ~$45T market cap divided by 21M coins implies a price over $2 million per Bitcoin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 2000000, "deadline": "2031-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-07-23", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptoslate.com/ex-fund-manager-pegs-bitcoin-at-2-million-by-2031-but-thats-a-45-trillion-market-cap/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "So what percentage of the reserve asset does it make sense that $900 trillion could capture? Would it be 5%...45 trillion divided by 21 million Bitcoin, that's over $2 million a Bitcoin.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2021-07-23); 2031-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Using his sovereign-CDS 'Fulcrum Index' methodology (G20 fulcrum index over $4.5 trillion divided by 21 million coins), Foss states fair value for Bitcoin is about $215,000 per bitcoin 'today'.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 215000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2022-03-30", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/exploring-bitcoin-valuation-models", "source_type": "article", "quote": "our calculation of the current G20 fulcrum index is over $4.5 trillion. Regardless, by this methodology, a fair value for bitcoin is about $215,000 per bitcoin today.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $47,717 through the 2022-12-28 horizon; never reached $215,000." }, { "claim_text": "By the next Bitcoin halving in about four years, Bitcoin's price will be substantially higher than it is now in fiat terms.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2028", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-09-24", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/greg-fosss-comeback-conversation-bitcoin-price-moves-macro-outlook-life-lessons-and-losses", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "All I try and do is smooth out the short term and look in the longterm. And in, in four years at the next Bitcoin having, I'm very confident, not certain, but very confident that the price will be substantially higher than it is now measured in fiat dollars.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Substantially higher by the ~2028 halving; window still open (as_of 2026-06-30), currently below at $58,161." }, { "claim_text": "Greg Foss believes Bitcoin is intrinsically worth over $150,000 based on credit default swap valuations of sovereign debt.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-09-10", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD396_-_Peter_Schiff__Greg_Foss.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I feel that Bitcoin's worth over $150,000 per Bitcoin. By that very basic calculation using credit default swaps on sovereign nations on the outstanding amount of debt that these sovereign nations hold.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $73,836 through the 2024-09-10 horizon; never reached $150,000." } ] }, { "id": "guy-swann", "name": "Guy Swann", "handles": { "x": "@TheGuySwann", "nostr": null, "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/@theguyswann", "web": "https://bitcoinaudible.com/" }, "category": [ "podcaster", "narrator", "bitcoin-educator", "commentator" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 109217, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/TheGuySwann" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [] }, { "id": "harold-burger", "name": "Harold Christopher Burger", "handles": { "x": "@hcburger1", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://hcburger.com/blog/" }, "category": [ "quant-analyst", "power-law-modeler", "bitcoin-blogger" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 12800, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/hcburger1" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Popular BTC price predictions based on non-diminishing returns will prove too bullish; power-law model with diminishing returns will be more accurate.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-01-10", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/hcburger1/status/1480519818243624960", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I predicted at the end of 2019 that various popular #btc price predictions would prove to be too bullish because they are based on NON-diminishing returns. Here is an update of that prediction. I have not changed my forecasts, I merely filled in new price data (in red).", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended power-law/diminishing-returns thesis with no deadline; outcome undetermined." } ] }, { "id": "harry-dent", "name": "Harry Dent", "handles": { "x": "@harrydentjr", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://harrydent.com/" }, "category": [ "economist", "demographic-forecaster", "permabear" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 54400, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/HarryDentjr" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 69, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 5, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 5, "partial": 0, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will fall from $69,000 to about three to four thousand. It's exactly what Amazon and the dot-coms did. The crash will happen by mid-June, a decline of 95% to 96%.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 4000, "deadline": "2023-06-15", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-04-10", "specificity": 100, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/economist-harry-dent-expects-biggest-crash-in-our-lifetime-to-hit-between-now-and-mid-june/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin will fall from $69,000 to about three to four thousand. It's exactly what Amazon and the dot-coms did.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "95-96% crash to $3-4k by mid-June 2023 never happened; low_by_deadline was $24,750." }, { "claim_text": "I think it [Bitcoin] goes down to $3,250, and then it starts a longer-term boom.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 3250, "deadline": "2024-07-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-01-26", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/gold-to-lose-its-shine-as-harry-dent-predicts-massive-crash-bitcoin-to-follow-suit-with-low-of-3250/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I think it goes down to $3,250, and then it starts a longer-term boom", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a drop to $3,250; lowest by the 2024-07-31 deadline was $19,569 β€” never remotely near $3,250." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin breaks down below $40,000, that's a sign that we're probably going into another wave down (the start of the anticipated 2024 mega-crash).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": 40000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-01-22", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-01-22/mega-crash-coming-2024-signal-everything-about-selloff-harry-dent", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "If Bitcoin breaks down below $40,000, that's a sign that we're probably going into another wave down.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Trigger (below $40k) was met but the predicted 2024 mega-crash never came β€” BTC rose to $108,389 by the 2024-12-31 deadline." }, { "claim_text": "Harry Dent predicts Bitcoin will drop back to $200 a coin during the biggest crash year (2024).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 200, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-04-06", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/robert-kiyosaki-responds-to-bitcoin-crashing-to-200-prediction-by-economist-harry-dent/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "He also predicts bitcoin will drop back to $200 a coin.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "low", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called for $200/coin in 2024; low by 2024-12-31 deadline was $49,050 β€” off by orders of magnitude." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin and crypto are the biggest bubble (not a safe haven); expect a ~50% crash by summer 2025 followed by a ~90% collapse. Bitcoin is a strong sell for 2025.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-09-22", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-04-16", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/30822838/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "This is one of the biggest misconceptions: that Bitcoin and crypto are the safe haven. Absolutely not, they are the biggest bubble.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted ~50% crash / strong sell by summer 2025; instead BTC rose from $84,029 to a high of $124,533 by the 2025-09-22 deadline (low only $83,088)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could fall to $30,000 by the end of 2026, with a potential downside as low as $15,600.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 30000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-22", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://finbold.com/economist-predicts-the-worst-market-crash-ever-in-2026/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "he projects the Bitcoin price could fall to $30,000 by the end of 2026, with a potential downside as low as $15,600", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Window open until 2026-12-31; BTC down from $88,557 to $58,000 but nowhere near the $30,000/$15,600 targets yet." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has never reached new highs following the peak year of its four-year cycle; in each instance it has gone on to decline by at least 77% in the following year.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://finbold.com/economist-predicts-the-worst-market-crash-ever-in-2026/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin has never reached new highs following the peak year of its four-year cycle. In each instance, it has gone on to decline by at least 77% in the following year.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Window open until 2026-12-31; no new ATH so far (high since made only $97,964 vs prior $126,296) and the 77% decline claim is unresolved." } ] }, { "id": "henrik-zeberg", "name": "Henrik Zeberg", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Henrik Zeberg predicts Bitcoin will rally to approximately $160,000 in a final euphoric blow-off top consistent with the four-year cycle peak.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 160000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2025-09-15", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Why-Bitcoin-Will-Crash-Like-Every-Other-4-Year-Cycle--Henrik-Zeberg-e388i4a", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "You think Bitcoin will go to $160,000. And you'll see people be euphoric and thinking, OK, I'm a billionaire or a millionaire or how much they will become. And everything is fine.", "timestamp": "0:30:31", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-09-15); 2028-03-15 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Henrik Zeberg predicts that after the euphoric peak, Bitcoin will crash consistent with every prior four-year cycle as the macro economy rolls over and central banks are unable to prevent the downturn.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-15", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Why-Bitcoin-Will-Crash-Like-Every-Other-4-Year-Cycle--Henrik-Zeberg-e388i4a", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "why the four-year Bitcoin cycle, it ain't going anywhere, and why Henrik actually believes that people holding risk assets may not do so well in the coming months.", "timestamp": "0:02:31", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claim commits to Bitcoin experiencing a significant post-peak bear market decline in line with 2018 and 2022 cycle drawdowns; resolves true if Bitcoin drops 50%+ from its 2025 peak within 12–18 months of that peak." } ] }, { "id": "hsaka", "name": "Hsaka", "handles": { "x": "@HsakaTrades", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "trader" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 602000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/HsakaTrades" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [] }, { "id": "hurley", "name": "Hurley", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will likely make a new bottom in the low 50s, tagging the ~$53,000 realized price.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 53000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-26", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Is-Michael-Saylor-About-to-Trigger-a-Bitcoin-Death-Spiral---Truth-Block-e3l9u7a", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "The average price every holder paid, which is the realized price, sits around $53,000 right now... So it is very possible we see a new bottom in the low 50s. In my opinion, the longer we sit under the 200 week moving average, the better the odds we go touch the realized price.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-26); 2027-03-26 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "il-capo-of-crypto", "name": "il Capo of Crypto", "handles": { "x": "@CryptoCapo_", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "trader", "technical-analyst", "perma-bear" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 997800, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/cryptocapo_?lang=en" }, "score": 61.1, "score_adj": 50, "avg_specificity": 19, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 18, "counts": { "correct": 9, "wrong": 5, "partial": 4, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "With BTC at ~$21k-$22k resistance and people calling for $40k, there is 'not a single bullish sign' to support the move up; rejection will be strong and altcoins could drop another 45-50%.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-07-07", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://phemex.com/blogs/il-capo-of-crypto-price-forecaster", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "In July 2022, Capo predicted that altcoins could fall another 45-50%, based on his belief that crypto exchanges were spoofing bounces.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called rejection/no-bull at ~$21.6k; BTC fell to $15,460 by Nov 2022 β€” the bearish move played out." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin would crash below $23,000 (reiterated mid-August 2022).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 23000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-08-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://phemex.com/blogs/il-capo-of-crypto-price-forecaster", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "On August 16, 2022, Capo was forecasting that BTC would crash below $23,000. Within days, BTC traded between $19,000-$21,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a crash below $23,000 from $23,858; BTC fell to $15,460 within days/weeks." }, { "claim_text": "'November is here. New lows are likely.' β€” calling for fresh bear-market lows in November 2022.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-11-01", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://phemex.com/blogs/il-capo-of-crypto-price-forecaster", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "On November 1, 2022, he warned that new lows were likely in November, stating 'November is here. New lows are likely.'", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called new lows for November 2022 at $20,480; BTC made fresh bear-market lows to $15,460 that month (FTX collapse)." }, { "claim_text": "A capitulation event is still likely, with Bitcoin potentially falling to $12,000 (and Ethereum to $500-$700).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 12000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-06-23", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/top-trader-predicts-bitcoin-will-crash-to-12000", "source_type": "article", "quote": "predicting that the price of the largest cryptocurrency could plummet to $12,000 ... Bitcoin potentially falling to $12,000 and Ethereum to between $500 and $700", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Capitulation-to-$12,000 call from $30,708 never happened; low since made was $24,900 and BTC rallied to $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "After BTC broke the $31,000 resistance, Capo conceded the breakout hurt his main bearish scenario but kept $12,000 as his primary (not yet invalidated) bearish target; closed losing altcoin shorts and turned 'neutral, not bullish.'", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 12000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-10-25", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/10/25/trader-who-called-last-years-crypto-crash-covers-bearish-altcoin-bets", "source_type": "article", "quote": "This breakout is not good for the main bearish scenario. I didn't expect the $31K resistance level to break that easily. ... No, I am not bullish, just neutral. I'm not buying yet.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$12,000 primary bearish target from $34,506 never hit (low since made $33,400); BTC went on to $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will decline toward $45,000, driven by high interest rates / QT; a move below $60,000 would be the 'first bearish confirmation.'", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 45000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-03-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptos-controversial-influencer-sees-bitcoin-price-crash-to-45-000-blames-it-on-high-interest-rates-202403041505", "source_type": "article", "quote": "CryptoCapo predicted a Bitcoin decline to $45,000 ... once Bitcoin drops below $60,000, it would represent 'the first bearish confirmation.' At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading near $69,000 (a new all-time high).", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Below-$60k 'first bearish confirmation' triggered and BTC approached the $45k target (low $49,050), but it never reached $45k and overall trended far higher to $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "There may be one last shakeout, with BTC testing the $48k-$50k zone (and ETH $1.8k-$2k) before 'the real altseason begins.'", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 48000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-10-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-393126-20241004", "source_type": "article", "quote": "There's a possibility of one last shakeout, with $BTC testing the $48k-50k zone and $ETH $1.8k-2k, before the real altseason begins.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a shakeout to $48k-$50k before real altseason; low since made was only $58,000 (never tested $48-50k) and BTC rallied to $126,296 instead." }, { "claim_text": "The real capitulation hasn't happened yet: BTC below 100k -> 92-93k; BTC below 92-93k -> 60-70k (potential cycle bottom).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 70000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-06-30", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.cointrust.com/market-forecasts/bitcoin-going-to-crash-il-capo-predicts-the-possibility", "source_type": "article", "quote": "In my opinion, the real capitulation event hasn't happened yet. $BTC below 100k -> 92-93k; $BTC below 92-93k -> 60-70k (potential bottom)", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted capitulation cascade below 100k -> 92-93k -> 60-70k potential bottom from $107,173; BTC fell through all levels into the 60-70k zone (low $58,000), cascade played out as described." }, { "claim_text": "Bull case needs a clean re-emergence of $75,000 to be validated; below $65,000 the bullish scenario loses validity in the short term (potential short squeeze toward $80k-$90k if it holds).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": 75000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-26", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://en.bitcoinsistemi.com/legendary-analyst-il-capo-of-crypto-if-bitcoin-breaks-above-75-000-the-bull-case-will-be-validated/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bull Case Validation: Bitcoin must achieve a clean re-emergence of the $75,000 price to confirm the bullish scenario. ... If BTC falls below $65,000, the bullish scenario would lose its validity in the short term.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Conditional call: BTC did cleanly reclaim $75k (high $82,814 validating bull case) but then fell below $65k to $58,000 (invalidating it) β€” both sides triggered." }, { "claim_text": "Short-term pullback target of BTC falling below $80,000 was reached, as he had expected.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-07", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.mexc.com/news/1077228", "source_type": "article", "quote": "the target of falling below $80,000 was successfully achieved", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claimed pullback below $80,000 was achieved; from $80,005 BTC fell well below to a low of $58,000." }, { "claim_text": "$65,000 has been reclaimed; the next key level to regain is $69,000-$70,000. (Rare near-term bullish-leaning call.)", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 69000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-15", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://en.bitcoinsistemi.com/bitcoin-goes-up-bullish-analyst-il-capo-sets-the-next-target/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "$65,000 has been reclaimed. The next key level to regain is $69,000-$70,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said $65k reclaimed and next level to regain is $69k-$70k; high since made was only $67,264 (never reached $69-70k) and BTC fell to $58,161." }, { "claim_text": "A local bottom is forming at $60k with a triple tap pattern; bullish confirmation comes first above $66k, then above $82k.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-26", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoCapo_/status/2070421032872079439", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$60k tested again.\n\nJust like the cycle top in October, with a triple tap at 123k...\n\n...an important local bottom could be forming here, with a triple tap at 60k.\n\nFirst bullish confirmation above 66k, second above 82k.\n\nGood times ahead imo.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-06-26..2026-07-01] β€” a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin may retest $60k–$62k one more time but a clear local bottom is forming across the crypto market.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-21", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoCapo_/status/2068665595155919236", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Potential last retest of $60k - $62k, but this looks like a clear local bottom formation across the entire crypto market.\n\nHave a good Sunday!", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-06-21..2026-07-01] β€” a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "After a pullback to $78k–$80k, Bitcoin will see bullish continuation to $85k–$90k.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 85000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoCapo_/status/2052070856923238534", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Potential quick pullback to 78k-80k, to shakeout late longs.\n\nThen bullish continuation to 85k-90k.\n\nLet's see.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted bullish continuation to $85k-$90k after a $78-80k pullback; high since made was only $82,814 and BTC then collapsed to $58,000 β€” never reached $85-90k." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin should move to $80,000 and higher from current levels.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-04-28", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoCapo_/status/2049029248682266837", "source_type": "x", "quote": "bitcoin:native \n\n$80,000 (and higher) should be next.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-04-28..2026-07-01], reaching the $80,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "As long as price holds above $65k, $75k should be the next target.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 75000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-03-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoCapo_/status/2029939563326546181", "source_type": "x", "quote": "As long as price holds above $65k, $75k should be next.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-03-06..2026-07-01], reaching the $75,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "A local bottom is forming and a strong short squeeze is likely given liquidity building above.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-19", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoCapo_/status/2024440472253444328", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Based on my analysis, and as said before, I'm bullish. A local bottom should be forming here, and with all the liquidity building up above, a strong short squeeze is likely.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called a local bottom forming and likely short squeeze from $66,972; BTC squeezed up to $82,814 (+24%) before later declining." }, { "claim_text": "BTC is at key support and there is no better time for a strong bounce (short squeeze).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-05", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoCapo_/status/2019434869001195948", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC\n\nMain support zone reached. Confluence of OB + 2021 ATHs (November and April) + 2024 ATH. Most alts also at HTF support. \n\nLots of liquidity above, and shorts are aggressive here. Sentiment can't be more negative.\n\nThere's no better time for a strong bounce (short squeeze)", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called main support reached with a strong bounce/short squeeze likely from $62,791; BTC bounced ~32% to $82,814." } ] }, { "id": "invest-answers", "name": "InvestAnswers (James)", "handles": { "x": "@1nvestanswers", "nostr": null, "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/investanswers", "web": "https://www.investanswers.io/" }, "category": [ "analyst", "youtuber", "quant" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 287500, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/invest_answers" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": 49.1, "avg_specificity": 58, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 8, "counts": { "correct": 4, "wrong": 4, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will hit $98,000 during this bull run β€” putting a 'line in the sand' for it to reach $98k by the end of March or June 2022. (BTC was $47,741 at the time.)", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 98000, "deadline": "2022-06-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-01-02", "specificity": 68, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2022/01/02/investanswers-details-big-bitcoin-price-prediction-for-first-half-of-2022-heres-the-target/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I always said we'd hit $98,000 Bitcoin during this bull run...the only way is up. I'm just going to put a line in the sand and that's what I see: sometime by the end of March or June.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/2022/https://dailyhodl.com/2022/01/02/investanswers-details-big-bitcoin-price-prediction-for-first-half-of-2022-heres-the-target/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $48,240 through the 2022-06-30 horizon; never reached $98,000." }, { "claim_text": "Conservative Metcalfe's-Law model has Bitcoin reaching $3.4 million by the year 2030. (BTC was $19,738 at the time.)", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 3400000, "deadline": "2030-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-09-27", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2022/09/27/heres-a-conservative-bitcoin-btc-price-target-for-the-year-2030-according-to-investanswers/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "the conservative model has Bitcoin reaching $3.4 million by the year 2030", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/2022/https://dailyhodl.com/2022/09/27/heres-a-conservative-bitcoin-btc-price-target-for-the-year-2030-according-to-investanswers/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2022-09-27); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's cup-and-handle pattern is in play with the neckline break done; minimum target $35,000, maximum target $42,000. (BTC was $28,880 at the time.)", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 35000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2023-04-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2023/04/27/extremely-bullish-bitcoin-price-pattern-almost-complete-suggesting-big-upside-target-investanswers/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The cup-and-handle pattern is still in play. The neckline break has happened – and it is quite normal to see a retest of the neckline area before the price moves higher.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/2023/https://dailyhodl.com/2023/04/27/extremely-bullish-bitcoin-price-pattern-almost-complete-suggesting-big-upside-target-investanswers/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $49,102 in [2023-04-27..2024-01-27], reaching the $35,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could hit $89,000 sometime in 2025, with a 'max upside' of $142,000 (dependent on on-chain supply, spot ETF approval and adoption). Recorded as the $142k max-upside target.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 142000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-10-03", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2023/10/03/investanswers-unveils-max-upside-price-target-for-bitcoin-btc-in-2025/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "believes Bitcoin could hit $89,000 sometime in 2025, though he thinks BTC has a 'max upside' of $142,000", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/2023/https://dailyhodl.com/2023/10/03/investanswers-unveils-max-upside-price-target-for-bitcoin-btc-in-2025/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $142,000." }, { "claim_text": "Based on the average ~175-day post-halving rally, Bitcoin will hit $69,000 before October 8th, 2024 (and likely a lot sooner) on the way to a new all-time high by Oct 8 2024. (BTC was $43,828 at the time.)", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 69000, "deadline": "2024-10-08", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-12-07", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2023/12/07/crypto-analyst-lays-out-timeline-for-new-bitcoin-all-time-high-as-btc-records-rapid-recovery-from-lows/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I believe, based on history, Bitcoin will hit $69,000 before October 8th. In fact, I believe it's going to happen a lot before that.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/2023/https://dailyhodl.com/2023/12/07/crypto-analyst-lays-out-timeline-for-new-bitcoin-all-time-high-as-btc-records-rapid-recovery-from-lows/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $73,836 in [2023-12-07..2024-10-08], reaching the $69,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high by October 8th, 2024, based on the average ~175-day lag from halving (halving April 17 2024 + ~175 days).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2024-10-08", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-12-07", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2023/12/07/crypto-analyst-lays-out-timeline-for-new-bitcoin-all-time-high-as-btc-records-rapid-recovery-from-lows/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I believe, based on history, Bitcoin will hit $69,000 before October 8th. In fact, I believe it's going to happen a lot before that.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/2023/https://dailyhodl.com/2023/12/07/crypto-analyst-lays-out-timeline-for-new-bitcoin-all-time-high-as-btc-records-rapid-recovery-from-lows/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted BTC hits $69,000 / new ATH before Oct 8 2024; high by deadline was $73,836, clearing $69k within the window." }, { "claim_text": "We are 165 days away from either an $80,000 Bitcoin or a $130,000 Bitcoin, somewhere in between, by July 16th 2024 (the ~90-days-before-to-90-days-after-halving window). (BTC was $44,802 at the time.)", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": "2024-07-16", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-02-09", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2024/02/09/bitcoin-could-skyrocket-by-up-to-190-in-165-days-according-to-investanswers-heres-his-outlook/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "We are 165 days away from either an $80,000 Bitcoin or $130,000 Bitcoin, somewhere in between, by July 16th 2024.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/2024/https://dailyhodl.com/2024/02/09/bitcoin-could-skyrocket-by-up-to-190-in-165-days-according-to-investanswers-heres-his-outlook/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted $80k-$130k band by July 16 2024; high by deadline was only $73,836, never reaching the $80k floor of the range." }, { "claim_text": "Upped Bitcoin cycle-peak target to $136,000 from $120,000, with a super-bull target of $154,000; peak expected in Q3/Q4 2025 (Aug-Oct window from historical halving lags). (BTC was $94,882 at the time.)", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 136000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-29", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2024/12/29/heres-where-bitcoin-and-solana-will-peak-in-current-market-cycle-according-to-investanswers/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I've upped my Bitcoin price target to $136,000 from $120,000 with a super bull target of $154,000…", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/2024/https://dailyhodl.com/2024/12/29/heres-where-bitcoin-and-solana-will-peak-in-current-market-cycle-according-to-investanswers/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $136,000." }, { "claim_text": "Reasonable year-end 2025 Bitcoin target of ~$115,000 if half of one percent of new global M2 flows into BTC (and ~$146,000 if 1% does); explicitly skeptical of $250k ('$250,000, I don't believe in that'). His standing target was ~$119k-$120k since 2023. (BTC was ~$82,100 at the time.)", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 115000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-03-31", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2025/03/31/heres-a-reasonable-year-end-price-target-for-bitcoin-according-to-investanswers/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "So imagine if just half of one percent of the new global M2 goes into Bitcoin – which is reasonable, perhaps – the price would go to $115,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/2025/https://dailyhodl.com/2025/03/31/heres-a-reasonable-year-end-price-target-for-bitcoin-according-to-investanswers/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2025-03-31..2025-12-31], reaching the $115,000 target." } ] }, { "id": "ivan-on-tech", "name": "Ivan Liljeqvist", "handles": { "x": "@IvanOnTech", "nostr": null, "youtube": "Ivan on Tech", "web": null }, "category": [ "youtuber", "trader", "commentator" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 493400, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/ivanontech?lang=en" }, "score": 75, "score_adj": 46.3, "avg_specificity": 18, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 14, "counts": { "correct": 8, "wrong": 1, "partial": 5, "pending": 13 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "After Bitcoin's bounce off the low ~$60K, Ivan said the cycle bottom is not in: '$60,000 was not the bottom', the 'big flush' still lies ahead, and the trend remains down (he framed the environment as 'risk-off since October' and urged capital preservation). A downside/bearish directional call.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-13", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-50k-bottom-call-faces-pushback-as-price-nears-75k/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I don't think we've had it yet I don't think $60,000 was the bottom You can pray for it of course 😈 but it won't help. Trend is still down The few % bounces are tiny if you zoom out", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said $60,000 was not the bottom, trend still down, big flush ahead from $74,446; BTC flushed below to a low of $58,000 (current $58,161)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is expected to fall further into the $40,000–$50,000 range before bottoming.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 40000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-19", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2067849099185975331", "source_type": "x", "quote": "BITCOIN PRICE UPDATE!!\nbitcoin:native at $62,600 - IN THE BUY ZONE\nBITCOIN IS CHEAP!\n\nBear trend is still very strong\nI expect it to go further down into 50s and 40s\nBut I dont know the future, no one knows the future\nDCAing Bitcoin at these cheap prices in the green buy zone is", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-19); 2027-03-19 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will exit the bear market in the coming months.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-11", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2064958474451104006", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin is exiting the bear market in the coming months\n\nThe BUY ZONE (green box) I predicted in October has been reached\n\nBitcoin going to 40-50k is very possible and will be massive buying opportunity.\n\nDCAing in the buy zone and then going heavy once the Money Line flips", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'Exiting bear market in coming months' made 2026-06-11; only 19 days elapsed by as_of 2026-06-30, BTC at $58,161 β€” multi-month window still open, undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will enter a new bull market in Q4 2026.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-07", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2063734522701623674", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Well done ser 🫑\nNew bull market likely in Q4\nWe redeploy capital then", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bull market predicted for Q4 2026 (Oct-Dec); as of 2026-06-30 that window has not begun, so undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is repeating the 2022 bottom pattern and will rally to new highs after a consolidation period.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-14", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2066121909880659988", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Mark it: crypto enters a bull market later this year, and the fuel is political. The hate against @elonmusk makes me very bullish bitcoin:native \n\nThe average person hates Elon and his success and they definitely hate AI!!!\n\nThe left will target AI bros next, AI stocks won't", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted rally to new highs 'later this year'; window through end-2026 still open. So far BTC fell from $65,707 to $58,161 (high only $67,264), no rally yet." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin can still drop to $40,000; bull market likely starts Q4 2026.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 40000, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2062517507353612405", "source_type": "x", "quote": "BITCOIN PRICE UPDATE!!!\nWE HAVE REACHED THE BUY-ZONE!! πŸ₯³πŸ₯³πŸ₯³\nBitcoin can still go lower \n$40,000 would not surprise me\n\nBUT BUYING AT OR CLOSE TO 200W MA (white line) HAS HISTORICALLY BEEN SMART AND PROFITABLE\n\nBull market is likely to start in Q4", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$40k buy-zone and Q4 2026 bull start both still in play; $40k not yet reached (low $58,000) and Q4 has not arrived." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will bottom in Q4 2026 and Valhalla (new ATH cycle) begins in 2027.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2027", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-31", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2061026956620013672", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Very true\n\nPeople spat in my face when I said on Oct 8th 2025 that the party is over (see pinned tweet)\n\nThose that did lost 80-90% of their portfolios holding altcoins - hoping for \"ISM\" to kick in\n\nHere is the good news - we likely bottom in Q4 and real Valhalla starts 2027", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bottom forecast for Q4 2026 and 'Valhalla' in 2027; neither window has elapsed by 2026-06-30." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will go parabolic later in 2026 or in 2027.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2027", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-15", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2055299160765538457", "source_type": "x", "quote": "BITCOIN WILL GO PARABOLIC LATER THIS YEAR OR 2027, JUST NOT YET!! VERDICT - RISK OFF; PROTECT CAPITAL!!", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Parabolic move forecast for 'later this year or 2027'; window open, no parabola yet (high since made only $81,650 vs $79,059, now $58,161)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will dump hard in May 2026, as it has in prior bear-market Mays.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-05-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-29", "specificity": 66, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2049554680515072334", "source_type": "x", "quote": "REMINDER: BITCOIN DUMPS HEAVILY EACH MAY IN BEAR MARKETS!!! 🚨🚨🚨\n\nWe are soon in May\nOoooooopppsiiieee", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted heavy May dump; in the May 1-31 window BTC rose to a high of $82,814 above the $75,753 start, with only a shallow $72,364 low β€” no heavy dump." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is heading for another big leg down before bottoming later in 2026.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-23", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2035954453774229515", "source_type": "x", "quote": "PSA: Bitcoin ready for the next big leg down 🚨🚨🚨\n\nBig BIG MASSIVE surprise ahead\nSadly in the bear direction\nNot sadly if you know mechanical rules and can short\n\nTHE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE WILL BOTTOM LATER IN 2026!", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "The predicted big leg down materialized (from $70,874 to a $58,000 low, ~18%), but the 'bottom later in 2026' confirmation is still open." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's rejection at $74,000 marks a March bull trap; price is heading lower into a buy zone.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 74000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2034368374755537241", "source_type": "x", "quote": "BITCOIN REJECTED AT $74,000 \nMARCH PUMP IS A BULL TRAP 🚨🚨🚨\n\nIvan tried warning you over and over again\nAre you subscribed to my youtube? (it's free)\n\nBUY ZONE INCOOOMING!\nBITCOIN COMING TO PAPA\n\noooohyes guys yesyes", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Directional thesis (bull trap, heading lower) came true β€” now $58,161 vs $71,245 β€” but the 'rejected at $74k' top was invalidated by a subsequent rally to $82,814." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could see a March pump toward the $80K level in this midterm year.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": "2026-03-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-27", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2027472389836071130", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Why are bulls so slow? The consolidation geometry suggests a March pump is possible. Long-term buy zones are intact, so we're prepared for any scenario. The 80K level for BTC aligns with typical mid-term year pumps. #Crypto #Trading #IvanClips", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC reached $76,023 by the 2026-03-31 horizon β€” within 5.0% of $80,000 but short." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is heading down toward 40K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 40000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-02-24", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2026332847145943419", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin bulls, take note: Bitcoin is back at the buy zone door and heading towards 40K. Consider nibbling in slowly, investing ~1% of your capital weekly. #Bitcoin #Crypto #IvanClips", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-02-24); 2026-11-24 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin loses 67K support it moves toward 40K (or slightly below); if 67K holds it bounces to the 86K-90K area.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 40000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-19", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2024532049592205422", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin is sitting at a major 67K support. If we lose this level, a move toward 40K becomes realistic, possibly even slightly below. But if support holds, the bounce scenario targets the 86K-90K area. This level decides everything. #Bitcoin #Crypto #IvanClips", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "67K support was lost (now $58,161), matching the bear branch direction, but the $40k target was not reached (low $58,000) and the 86-90K bull band was missed (high $82,814)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will drop into a 40-50K buy zone this year amid 50-65% crypto drops.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2022399996105036008", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Crypto markets could see significant drops. If history repeats, expect drops of 50-65% this year. We've already fallen 25%, so the buy zone at 40-50K for BTC might be closer than you think. #Crypto #Trading #Bitcoin #IvanClips", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-02-13); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will likely drop below $50K again, offering another buy-below-$50K opportunity.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-02-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2022467378529829076", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Good news for the average person: the chance to buy Bitcoin below $50K might be here again. With institutions and ETFs now involved, this could be the last opportunity for a while. #Bitcoin #Crypto #IvanClips", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-02-14); 2026-11-14 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will likely slide further before recovering within a couple of quarters, nearing a bottom before the next bull run.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-17", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2023798132669100398", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The bad news for BTC: a likely slide. The good news: recovery within quarters. With sentiment at rock bottom and the Bitcoin thesis questioned, we're nearing a bottom before a bull run. #Bitcoin #Crypto #IvanClips", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "The predicted further slide occurred (from $67,467 to a $58,000 low); the 'recovery within quarters / bull run' portion remains open." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will see continued downside and chop for months even as Ivan begins slowly buying near the 200-week MA (~$60K).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-06", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2019711515654308217", "source_type": "x", "quote": "🚨🚨 UPDATE TO MY PLAN NOW THAT BITCOIN IS ALMOST AT 200W MA (around $60,000) 🚨🚨\n\n1. I am bear and risk off since October 8th (see pinned tweet for proof)\n2. I AM NOW A SLOW BUYER OF BTC!!! πŸŽ‰πŸŽ‰ (but please read whole tweet because I still expect downside and chop for MONTHS to", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Both elements verified: continued downside (from $70,528 to $58,000) and chop over months (Feb-Jun), now near the ~$60K 200W MA as he described." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach the 200-week MA around $60K and Ivan will buy there, rejecting the mega-bear $30K calls.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-01-30", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2017264510931751182", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I WILL BUY BITCOIN AT 200W MA AT $60,000!!!!!!\n\nthese mega bears calling for $30k are too bearish\ni will follow the mechanical rules and the plan we have set out", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-01-30..2026-07-01], reaching the $60,000 downside target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin still needs another leg down to the 200-week MA before turning up.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-01", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2017899425553617138", "source_type": "x", "quote": "This ratio tells me we need another leg down to shake out the hopium bag holders praying for ISM/business cycle to save them\n\nBitcoin to 200w ma then Valhalla", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "The predicted leg down to the 200-week MA (~$60K) was reached β€” BTC fell from $76,896 to a $58,000 low, currently $58,161, right at that target zone." }, { "claim_text": "$60,000 was not the bitcoin bottom; a bigger flush lower is still coming.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2044125360204185894", "source_type": "x", "quote": "RT @IvanOnTech: Bitcoin: the big flush…\n\nI don’t think we’ve had it yet\nI don’t think $60,000 was the bottom\nYou can pray for it of course…", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted $60K was not the bottom and a bigger flush was coming; BTC broke below $60K, falling to $58,000 (current $58,161) from $74,179 at the call." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will chop sideways for about a year before reaching its true bottom; no V-shaped recovery.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-06", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2019802825325253101", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin hit the buy zone, but don't rush in! A V-shaped recovery is unlikely. Expect ups and downs for about a year before we find the true bottom. #Bitcoin #Crypto", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "~1-year window (from 2026-02-06) extends into early 2027 and has not elapsed; the 'no V-recovery, ups and downs' has held (up to $82,814 then down to $58,000) but the true-bottom timing is undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will move sideways for about a year before a true bottom as it approaches the 200-week MA.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-05", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2019456924027113479", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Remember the fake all-time high warning? Time for the opposite. As we approach the 200-week MA, it's time to consider a bullish stance. Expect sideways movement for about a year before a true bottom. #TradingTips #MarketAnalysis", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "~1-year sideways-before-true-bottom window (from 2026-02-05) runs into early 2027 and has not elapsed; choppy action so far but the true bottom is not yet resolvable." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will dip to the 200-week MA, offering a load-up entry before the next cycle starts later this year.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2019138437559783509", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin losing support isn't necessarily bad. A dip to the 200 week moving average is a chance to load up before the next cycle begins later this year! #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Deadline 2026 is still open; a dip lower did occur (to $58,000 from $72,998) but 'next cycle begins later this year' is undetermined as BTC sits at $58,161 with no new cycle started." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's bear trend will continue down to the 200-week MA and stay there longer than bulls expect.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-10", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2021116499394527708", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Massive bear trend still in play, targeting the 200-week moving average. Expecting a revisit, settling in, and a longer stay than bulls hope for. Adapting to market dynamics, not holding onto losing positions. #BearMarket #Trading", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bear trend continued lower as predicted, falling from $68,804 to $58,000 (current $58,161) toward the 200-week MA." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin near $69K is too expensive; cheaper Bitcoin is coming as it falls toward the 200-week MA.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-09", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2020883000515276872", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin at $69k? Too expensive! Closer to 200-week MA means buy zone. Cheap Bitcoin coming, but be careful of false hope. #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investing #BTC", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called $69K too expensive with cheaper BTC coming; BTC fell from $70,102 to $58,000 (current $58,161)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's destination after the flash to 72k is the 200-week MA (lower).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IvanOnTech/status/2019154775825125585", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin flashed to 72k! The flash button is being pressed in real time. Destination? The 200 week moving average. Solana's feeling the heat too, eyeing juicy entries at $30. #Bitcoin #Solana #Trading #Crypto", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "After the flash to ~72k, predicted destination lower; BTC fell from $72,998 to $58,000 (current $58,161)." } ] }, { "id": "jack-dorsey", "name": "Jack Dorsey", "handles": { "x": "@jack", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://block.xyz" }, "category": [ "founder", "executive", "bitcoiner" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 6500000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/jack" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Asked by Mike Solana what Bitcoin's price would be in 2030, Dorsey replied that it would be 'at least a million' and that he thinks 'it hits that number and goes beyond.'", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2030-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-05-09", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/05/10/former-twitter-ceo-jack-dorsey-says-bitcoin-will-go-beyond-1-million-in-2030", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I don't know. Over... at least a million. I do think it hits that number and goes beyond.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-05-09); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "jack-mallers", "name": "Jack Mallers", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 66.7, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 8, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 3, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will eventually be worth a million dollars as the market matures.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2023-05-26", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://assets.podhome.fm/8029725b-0319-44b9-4793-08dc404e83a4/transcript_ea7dfb8b-1b81-41e1-8ba8-a622cc40f08f638456270822847754.html", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "it'll get more to the top. Worth a million. Exactly. Right? And and the market the free market will figure that out. But yeah. And I and, you know, I think too, like, I actually am really excited for Bitcoin's price performance over the next few years", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-11-26 horizon; never reached $1,000,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's price will moon in the back half of the period (he explicitly rejects the $1M-in-90-days framing).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-05-26", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://assets.podhome.fm/8029725b-0319-44b9-4793-08dc404e83a4/transcript_ea7dfb8b-1b81-41e1-8ba8-a622cc40f08f638456270822847754.html", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think the coin's gonna moon, in the back half of this. I'm just excited to be alive and be a part of it. You you think $1,000,000 in in 90 days? Or I'm not that dumb.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted the coin would moon; from $26,715 at the call BTC rallied to a high of $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will be higher in years to come than it is today.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-05-26", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://assets.podhome.fm/8029725b-0319-44b9-4793-08dc404e83a4/transcript_ea7dfb8b-1b81-41e1-8ba8-a622cc40f08f638456270822847754.html", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think it's gonna I think it'll be higher in years to come than it is today", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted higher in years to come; from $26,715 (2023) BTC is now $58,161, clearly higher." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is going up, so he is happy to hold it long-term on Strike's balance sheet.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/PLAN-B-Lugano-Podcast---Day-2-with-Jack-Mallers--Chris-Pavlovski--SLP698-e3a72ps", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I'm happy to be long the Bitcoin. Like in a default scenario, I'll take the Bitcoin on our balance sheet because I know it's going up.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Resolves TRUE if BTC trends upward over the long run; an open-ended forward directional conviction with no level or deadline." } ] }, { "id": "jacob-canfield", "name": "Jacob Canfield", "handles": { "x": "@JacobCanfield", "nostr": null, "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCiMgF08KQ4z-Gnu8o2BLOxA", "web": "https://www.signalprofits.com/" }, "category": [ "trader", "technical-analyst", "youtuber" ], "followers": { "platform": "tradingview", "count": 14600, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://www.tradingview.com/u/jacobcanfield/" }, "score": 57.1, "score_adj": 57.1, "avg_specificity": 24, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 7, "counts": { "correct": 4, "wrong": 3, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's near-term high-side target is the $72,000 liquidation cluster, after which price will chop sideways.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 72000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-02-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JacobCanfield/status/2019809011965833402", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin Liquidation Zone: $72,000 liquidation cluster on #bitcoin on @HyperliquidX . Probably our high side target and then things will chop a bit sideways.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-02-06..2026-07-01], reaching the $72,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin must reclaim $73,500 on the weekly or the .618 Fibonacci retracement of the prior leg becomes the downside target.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 73500, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JacobCanfield/status/2019421823033659757", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#Bitcoin - High time frame view.\n\nLost the key lows from April of 2025 and didn't get much of a reaction.\n\nOn a weekly time frame, it is very important we get back above $73.5k to reclaim.\n\nIf it acts as resistance, I'd look for the .618 of the move as a potential downside", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Conditional: fail to reclaim $73.5k and the .618 retrace becomes the downside target; BTC briefly tagged $82,814 then failed and dropped to $58,000 (current $58,161), playing out the downside scenario." }, { "claim_text": "A weekly Bitcoin close above $80,000 would signal a local bottom is near.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-03", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JacobCanfield/status/2018789686525714548", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC - Great reaction form liquidity zone I've been targeting for a week.\n\nA weekly close above $80k would give me high confidence that we are nearing a local bottom.\n\nI wouldn't be surprised if they run the lows a few times to capture more liquidity, but again, I think this is a", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "A weekly close above $80k was supposed to signal a local bottom near; BTC did reach $82,814 but then collapsed to $58,000 (current $58,161), so it did not mark a bottom." }, { "claim_text": "Buying Bitcoin under $75,000 represents a strong buy opportunity given the 42% pullback.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 75000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-02-03", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JacobCanfield/status/2018767086156382263", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Buying Bitcoin at under $75k will be fantastic buys.\n\nBuying a 42% pull back with max fear in the market is always a better buy than buying euphoria and all time highs.\n\nBuy depression, sell euphria.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $57,718 in [2026-02-03..2026-07-01], below the $75,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Breaking and closing a daily candle above $94,500 should send Bitcoin back to $100,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-01-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JacobCanfield/status/2011164473084739985", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC - Held that retest and heading back up to resistance. Same analysis as last time. A break of $94.5k on a daily candle and we should see a move back to the next resistance at $100k.\n\nBitcoin tends to fill those inefficiencies quickly after breaking through resistance.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $97,964 in [2026-01-13..2026-07-01], reaching the $100,000 target (within 2.0% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin needs to break and close the daily above $95,000 to fill the inefficiency back up to $100,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-01-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JacobCanfield/status/2008267800364691956", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC - #Bitcoin is approaching short term resistance here and this is what you can expect.\n\nNeed to break and close the daily above $95k.\n\nWe have a nice Adam and eve structure bottom structure here that should fill the sell off inefficiency back up to $100k (first resistance +", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $97,964 in [2026-01-05..2026-07-01], reaching the $100,000 target (within 2.0% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin must hold the $90,000 zone or a significant leg down is likely.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 90000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-01-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JacobCanfield/status/2008609523335135335", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC - Resistance doing resistance things. No break and close above $94.5k after a sweep of the range highs.\n\nIdeal we hold that $90k zone or things could get ugly.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $57,718 in [2026-01-06..2026-07-01], below the $90,000 floor." } ] }, { "id": "james-check", "name": "James Check (Checkmate)", "handles": { "x": "@_Checkmatey_", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "glassnode.com" }, "category": [ "on-chain-analyst", "bitcoin" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 132000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitterscore.io/twitter/_Checkmatey_/" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": 33, "avg_specificity": 26, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 11, "counts": { "correct": 5, "wrong": 5, "partial": 1, "pending": 8 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025 is 'very improbable' due to a lack of buying volume (though not impossible).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-22", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:0a9023789094b:0-bitcoin-hitting-200k-this-year-very-improbable-says-analyst/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "'$200,000 in six months is a big move β€” that's a big move' ... 'Could it happen? Absolutely. Is it likely to happen? Very improbable.' ... 'How on earth can we be going up when there is no volume?'", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called $200K by end-2025 very improbable; high by the 2025-12-31 deadline was $126,296, never reaching $200K." }, { "claim_text": "Within five years Bitcoin will be 'well and truly' above $200,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2030-07-22", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-22", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:0a9023789094b:0-bitcoin-hitting-200k-this-year-very-improbable-says-analyst/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Despite near-term skepticism, Check stated he believes Bitcoin will be 'well and truly' above $200,000 within five years, as most of his net worth is invested in BTC.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-07-22); 2030-07-22 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "A Bitcoin bear market is going to happen; anyone convinced by influencers that there will never be another bear market should unfollow them.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-06-30", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-fundamentals/bitcoin-treasury-companies-w-james-check-checkmate/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "If you've been convinced by any influencers that we're never gonna have a bear market again, I would unfollow because it's going to happen.", "timestamp": "00:51:01", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bear market did happen: BTC peaked at $126,296 then crashed ~54% to $58,000/current $58,161 after the call." }, { "claim_text": "Every Bitcoin price below $70k is the 'bottom-fifth' of the market cycle β€” an 80%+ probability bottom zone to DCA, rather than waiting for a final wick.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 70000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-18", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/_Checkmatey_/status/2045299521937375340", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Folks fantasize over buying the final wick of a bear.\n\nWhat they should do, is DCA the bottom fifth of the market cycle. You're buying every time there is an 80%+ chance of it being the bottom.\n\nEvery Bitcoin price below $70k is/was that 'bottom-fifth' zone.\n\nKeep it simple. https://t.co/WxWFwdX9jR", "timestamp": "2026-04-18T00:33:00.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $57,718 in [2026-04-18..2026-07-01], below the $70,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Consistent view that $60k was the price-pain capitulation event and that prices below $70k are deep value territory (i.e. the cycle bottom is around $60k).", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-26", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/_Checkmatey_/status/2059072981289329058", "source_type": "x", "quote": "@BITC_minimalist @_checkonchain @SullyMichaelvan For clarity, how is Bitcoin 'higher than I predicted for three months', when my position has been a very consistent view that $60k was the price-pain capitulation event, and prices below $70k are deep value territory?\n\nNot sure your characterisation is an accurate read of my", "timestamp": "2026-05-26T00:43:49.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-05-26..2026-07-01] β€” a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Euphoric / 'stupid' top-of-cycle MVRV levels don't get hit until Bitcoin reaches roughly the $160-180k range, implying the cycle still has room to run there.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 160000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-01", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/vMl3OguabAtUlfgdIByV/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "We're still within the bell curve of normal Bitcoin bull market environments. Once we start getting to the right tail where things get a little bit stupid, you've really got to get up into the 160, 180k type range before those kind of levels get hit.", "timestamp": "0:07:27", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC never approached the implied $160-180k room-to-run; it topped at $126,296 and rolled into a bear market down to $58,000." }, { "claim_text": "Near-term Bitcoin will probably go down further from the ~$63K level as the bear market hammers out a floor, but the bear market has an end and Bitcoin is not dead / not going to zero.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-07", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/o4JQALdXEjrXSArZZX5x/files/VIDEO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "there and the ingredients for creating that capitulation. It'll take time. It'll probably go down more. It'll be choppy. It'll be painful. You get bear market rallies. They get the hope back in. You'll buy that rally and then it will sell back off again. It's going to be a process. but unless your decision tree is that Bitcoin is dead, this bear market has an end. And we've done a lot of the work.", "timestamp": "0:03:07", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted further downside from ~$63K/$69,245 spot; BTC fell further to $58,000 (current $58,161), and is far from zero as he said." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's next logical target is $150k (a $3 trillion market cap), having proven the $1T and $2T levels.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2025-10-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/xkSSgIRF2r8hLaDICNzg/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "at 2 trillion we proved a trillion in 24 we've proved 2 trillion in 25 so now the question is how many trillions and i mean the most logical thing is let's go to 150 let's see what that looks like because that's 3 trillion but we've got this massive base right 60 of the dollars invested in Bitcoin have said, I want it above 95K.", "timestamp": "0:13:24", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $124,254 since 2025-10-08); 2028-04-08 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Having proven $110k, that is now the floor; base case is the bulls are in control and the market wants to go higher toward $150k, not down to $95k.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 110000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2025-10-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/xkSSgIRF2r8hLaDICNzg/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "But that's not the base case because we're at 125 and it feels like we want 150 and we're coming off a really really nice stable base you can kind of start lifting some of your targets and saying well because we've proven 110 that's the floor where where do we go from here", "timestamp": "0:13:47", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-10-08..2026-07-01], below the $110,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "James Check argues that on-chain cost-basis data (55% of dollars invested have a cost basis above 90k) has built a very stable floor at $90k; he doesn't want to see the market go below 90k and says a break below 90k would signal something is wrong.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 90000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2025-07-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/zSbDpN6yHP39Hp56WI5I/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "see that if it does go below 90k then i'll probably start saying you know something is wrong um and it's probably going to be a global thing not not a bitcoin thing uh but um in lieu of that if we stay above 90k it's just a huge amount of support there there's a huge amount of demand we're seeing demand come in and like that's that's where we're at don't worry about price suppression look at the fact that there is so much demand that we've built this very very stable floor at", "timestamp": "0:04:26", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-07-02..2026-07-01], below the $90,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Not worried about Bitcoin breaking down to $45K; views a move to 45K as a Q1 (rare tail) event that is not his base case.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 45000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-05-19", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/cd4WGhUP5ewVGri2ii1V/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "So I have satisfied myself that I'm not worried about 45K. If it happens, I'll learn from that experience, but it's not something that phases me at this point.", "timestamp": "0:09:09", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $45,000 (through 2026-07-01)." }, { "claim_text": "Long-term Bitcoin price target is 10.8 kilos of gold (gold parity); the higher gold goes, the higher Bitcoin's floor.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-30", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/Vo6THPu9X5RZBVkVUxAj/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "my long-term price target for bitcoin has always been the same it's 10.8 kilos of gold which is parity the higher the gold price goes the higher the bitcoin price goes at a relative basis so it's just lifting the floor of where this thing's going", "timestamp": "0:18:39", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Long-term gold-parity target (10.8 kg gold, no deadline) is undetermined; window has not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "We are in the bottom ~20% (last fifth) of the bear-market price action; price will probably go down more and chop while hammering out a floor, but unless Bitcoin is dead this bear market has an end (i.e. eventual recovery follows).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-07", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/o4JQALdXEjrXSArZZX5x/files/VIDEO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "we're now in that last again that last fifth of the price action ... where you've got to hammer out a floor. You've got to find where that bottom is. It's a process. It sucks. ... It'll probably go down more. It'll be choppy. It'll be painful. ... unless your decision tree is that Bitcoin is dead, this bear market has an end.", "timestamp": "0:08:18", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called more downside and choppy floor-hammering; BTC dropped further from $69,245 to $58,000, matching the near-term directional read." }, { "claim_text": "There is a very stable floor at 90k; he does not want to see price go below 90k and expects it to hold as strong support given 55% of cost basis sits above 90k.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 90000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2025-07-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/zSbDpN6yHP39Hp56WI5I/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Don't worry about price suppression, look at the fact that there is so much demand that we've built this very very stable floor at 90k you know 90k six months ago we're at 70k so you know it's just a whole different animal now.", "timestamp": "0:04:48", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-07-02..2026-07-01], below the $90,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $150K but needs ETF AUM to grow another 50% (from ~$40B to ~$60-70B) before it can get there; Checkmate expects it will happen but it will take time.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2025-03-26", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/There-is-no-cycle-with-Checkmate--SLP648-e30mcu7", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "My estimate probably needs the ETFs to, I don't know, add another 50% to their size. They've had 40 billion, probably needs another to 60 or something 70 billion before we can get up to that 150K mark. I think it'll happen, but it's going to take some time.", "timestamp": "0:15:53", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-03-26); 2030-03-26 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "James Check expects Bitcoin's market cap to eventually move to $10 trillion, requiring institutional/big money participation.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-27", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC1007210380.mp3?updated=1743567016", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "in order to maintain this kind of level and move to $10 trillion, you need big money. So in my view, who was underneath? It was a sophisticated pool of buyers who were allowing the market to sell to them.", "timestamp": "0:04:15", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$10T market cap (~$500k+ BTC) is an open-ended long-term target; not yet reached, window not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "James Check expects the Bitcoin rally to continue from its current level (~$88K) given the coiled spring setup from the consolidation period.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-27", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC1007210380.mp3?updated=1743567016", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "When these things go, I mean, I would expect it probably keeps going.", "timestamp": "0:08:51", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Expected rally to continue from $95,951; BTC kept going meaningfully higher to $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will consolidate or correct in the near term after its 2023 rally.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-12-05", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1731903135499841607", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I'd be surprised if #Bitcoin didn't consolidate / correct near term.\n\nA few months rest would allow investor cost bases to re-acclimate above the True Market Mean Price.\n\nRemarkably, the market hasn't given back more than ~20% YTD, which suggests persistent and strong spot demand", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predict a consolidation or correction in the short term from early December 2023; needs price data for Dec 2023 – Feb 2024 to evaluate whether BTC pulled back meaningfully." }, { "claim_text": "Base case (about 80% confidence) that the February ~$60K low was the bear market bottom and Bitcoin is now in a bull market, expecting a slow multi-month grind higher.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-19", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/cd4WGhUP5ewVGri2ii1V/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "So from my perspective, I've been saying there's about an 80% chance that we've actually got the bottom is in. That's my base case. So that is like we're in a bull market. We'll look back at it.", "timestamp": "0:03:02", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Calls the ~$60K low the bottom and the bull as in play (~80% odds). As of 2026-06-20 BTC ~$63,556 and the 2026 drawdown low of $59,073 was set on 2026-06-05 (slightly below his $60K bottom), but no decisive bull-market breakout has confirmed or refuted the call. Pending." } ] }, { "id": "james-lavish", "name": "James Lavish", "handles": { "x": "@jameslavish", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.jameslavish.com" }, "category": [ "macro", "fund-manager", "newsletter" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 170000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://hypeauditor.com/twitter/jameslavish/" }, "score": 40, "score_adj": 40.3, "avg_specificity": 25, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 5, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 2, "partial": 2, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Asked whether BTC is still in a four-year cycle, Lavish said the halving cycle no longer drives price and that BTC is now governed by a 6-7 year global liquidity cycle: 'I think the four-year cycle is dead. We are now in a liquidity cycle.'", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-02", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://en.bitcoinsistemi.com/james-lavish-claims-the-4-year-cycle-in-bitcoin-is-dead-explains-new-system-and-btc-price-prediction/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I think the four-year cycle is dead. We are now in a liquidity cycle.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'Four-year cycle is dead' was wrong: BTC topped ~$126k near the classic cycle window then crashed, and Lavish himself recanted on 2026-04-19." }, { "claim_text": "Lavish predicted BTC would trade roughly sideways between $80,000 and $100,000 short-term, then move higher once liquidity expands: 'We'll see liquidity added to the system next year. When that happens, I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin reaches $150,000 or even $180,000' (referring to 2026).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-02", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://en.bitcoinsistemi.com/james-lavish-claims-the-4-year-cycle-in-bitcoin-is-dead-explains-new-system-and-btc-price-prediction/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin reaches $150,000 or even $180,000", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-12-02); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Reversing his earlier stance, Lavish admitted the four-year cycle persisted: 'I thought the four-year cycle was dead. I declared it dead last year. I was wrong' β€” adding BTC started to turn in the four-year cycle once price got over $100K, after BTC hit a new high of $126,000.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-19", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/32729062/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I thought the four-year cycle was dead. I declared it dead last year. I was wrong", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Retrospective claim matches reality: BTC turned over once it passed $100k, hit a $126,296 high, then declined per the four-year cycle." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will trade above $1 million in the early 2030s (2032-2033).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2033-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-05", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/JaJ1Ik3NQolq4Ok2RaQJ/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "They're going to have to print money at this point. What we are experiencing right now is an information or a knowledge arbitrage. And so people just do not yet understand how Bitcoin is different. Bitcoin is going to trade above a million dollars in early 2030s. 2032, 2033, I would be very surprised if we're not touching million dollar Bitcoin. What a freaking beating it's been, huh?", "timestamp": "0:00:36", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-02-05); 2033-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin tracks global liquidity closely, and Lavish expects liquidity to keep expanding into the fall and through the beginning of next year, so he's bullish / not worried on BTC over that horizon.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-01-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-15", "specificity": 50, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/vtvhTV5JuBMPz8IPDn94/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "gotten ahead of itself here, according to those measures. But, you know, Bitcoin has been following And I think that we're going to continue to expand liquidity here going into the fall and up to the at least the beginning of next year. So I'm not worried.", "timestamp": "0:08:40", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Rallied to $126,296 into the fall as hoped, but by the 2026-01-31 deadline BTC had fallen to $75,644, well below the $115,381 entry." }, { "claim_text": "Bullish on Bitcoin short term; expects global liquidity (to which Bitcoin is closely correlated) to keep expanding into the fall and through at least the beginning of next year, with Bitcoin following it higher.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-01-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-15", "specificity": 50, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/vtvhTV5JuBMPz8IPDn94/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I'm actually bullish short term, too... I think that we're going to continue to expand liquidity here going into the fall and up to the at least the beginning of next year. So I'm not worried.", "timestamp": "0:08:40", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Short-term bullish thesis: BTC first rose to $126,296 then sold off to $75,644 by the 2026-01-31 deadline, ending far below the $115,381 entry." }, { "claim_text": "Any Bitcoin price near or below $70K will in hindsight prove to be an absolute buying opportunity.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 70000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-05-28", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jameslavish/status/2060002142711369931", "source_type": "x", "quote": "As the hot ball of money continues to chase anything and everything tech and ai related, Bitcoin continues to fall out of favor. And in the not too distant future, we will look back at any price near or below $70K as an absolute gift.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $57,718 in [2026-05-28..2026-07-01], below the $70,000 floor." } ] }, { "id": "james-van-straten", "name": "James Van Straten", "handles": { "x": "@btcjvs", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.coindesk.com/author/james-van-straten" }, "category": [ "analyst", "on-chain", "macro", "journalist" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 50100, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/btcjvs" }, "score": 54.2, "score_adj": 53.4, "avg_specificity": 29, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 12, "counts": { "correct": 5, "wrong": 4, "partial": 3, "pending": 10 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "With BTC testing its 200-week moving average (~$62,400) and the realized price around $53,457, a bear-market low could potentially form somewhere in the $50,000 to $54,000 range; if history repeats, bitcoin would likely need to trade below the aggregate realized price before a definitive bear market bottom is established (i.e. BTC may need to plunge ~15% or more from current levels to mark a bottom).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 54000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-23", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/23/bitcoin-may-need-to-plunge-15-or-more-to-mark-bottom-according-to-this-long-time-indicator", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If large investors are motivated to defend their aggregate cost basis, a bear market low could potentially form somewhere in the $50,000 to $54,000 range. ... If history repeats, bitcoin would likely need to trade below the aggregate realized price before a definitive bear market bottom is established.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Fresh call (2026-06-23); BTC only fell to $58,000 (~7%), has not reached the predicted $50-54k bottom band, and the bottom is undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "In mid-March 2026, with BTC in a drawdown after the Oct 10 2025 crash, Van Straten argued the downside was nearly exhausted: he expected Bitcoin to make one more new low within roughly three weeks / be taken lower within the next 30 days, after which the worst would be over (the discussion framed the move thereafter as sideways then upward).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-04-16", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-17", "specificity": 76, "citation": { "url": "https://stephanlivera.com/episode/731/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "They have to take Bitcoin lower in the next 30 days, in my opinion. That's it. ... I will give another three, three weeks till we make a new low because there has going to have to be contagion, there's gonna have to be for selling, all of that kind of stuff.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "A new low (64,939) did print by the 2026-04-16 deadline, but his core thesis that 'the worst would be over' failed β€” BTC kept falling to 58,000 (current 58,161)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could keep going higher as more and more people remain sidelined due to fear.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-17", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/Theres-Hope-for-Bitcoin-with-James-Van-Straten--SLP731-e3gipom", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "It's mad to think how fearful the market is. And we could just be fearful. And it's that theory of just climbing the wall of worry. And that's why Bitcoin could just keep going higher as more and more people are sidelined.", "timestamp": "0:00:00", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC did climb higher to 82,814 after the call but then crashed to 58,161 (current); the hedged 'keep going higher' only held briefly before a large reversal." }, { "claim_text": "James Van Straten gives roughly three more weeks (from March 16, 2026) for Bitcoin to make a new cycle low before he considers the bear market bottom confirmed.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-04-06", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-17", "specificity": 76, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/Theres-Hope-for-Bitcoin-with-James-Van-Straten--SLP731-e3gipom", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "We're now at March 16th. That's over five months now since October 10th. So I still said, I will give another three weeks, three and a bit weeks till we make a new low.", "timestamp": "0:10:40", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "A new low (64,939 by 2026-04-06) below the 73,934 made-price printed within the ~3-week window as predicted." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will see another leg lower between July 1 and July 10 toward the realized price around $53k.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 53000, "deadline": "2026-07-10", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-26", "specificity": 100, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/btcjvs/status/2070522632542281973", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I anticipate another leg lower in Bitcoin between July 1 and July 10, with a move towards the realized price around 53k. \n\nMy bias is that Bitcoin will front run the \"October bottom\", just as it front ran the April 2024 halving.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-26); 2026-07-10 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is in a mid-cycle correction and will have a blow-off top next year (2027).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2027", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-20", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/btcjvs/status/2068468650885910900", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Mid-cycle correction for Bitcoin, blow off top next year", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Blow-off-top window is 2027, which has not elapsed (as_of 2026-06-30); outcome undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has likely bottomed against gold and silver based on time symmetry (~400–420 days peak to trough), suggesting BTC has bottomed relative to both metals.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-23", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/btcjvs/status/2069516513489625454", "source_type": "x", "quote": "From peak to trough, the BTC/silver and BTC/Gold ratio has taken around 400-420 days in each cycle.\n\nWhich would assume btc has bottomed against both metals.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "No BTC/metal-ratio data to confirm; BTC itself made fresh lows (58,000) after the call, falling from 62,645 to 58,161, undermining the 'has bottomed' framing." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will front-run the expected 'October bottom', making its cycle low before October as it did before the April 2024 halving.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-10-01", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-20", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/btcjvs/status/2068421541885325503", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I still believe the \"October bottom\" gets front run, as it did ahead of the 2024 halving.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Pre-October-2026 cycle-low window (deadline 2026-10-01) is still open; current low 58,000 may or may not prove to be the cycle low." }, { "claim_text": "If the 4-year cycle plays out fully, Bitcoin will sweep below the realized price at approximately $54,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 54000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2026-06-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/btcjvs/status/2063377502396092772", "source_type": "x", "quote": "If the 4 yr cycle plays out, then bitcoin sweeps below the realized price ($54k). \n\nLimit orders are set all the way down from here.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-06); 2028-12-06 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin breaches $85,000, it will move quickly to $95,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 95000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-05-17", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/btcjvs/status/2056018060603973737", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I believe that if $85k gets breached, the gap to $95k will happen quickly.\n\nTMM and STH cost basis remains a key support around $78k.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $78,570 since 2026-05-17); 2027-02-17 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The cycle bottom is already in and the four-year cycle is over, with Bitcoin set to recover from here.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-06", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/btcjvs/status/2051994589628711339", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The bottom is in, the four year cycle is over. Bitcoin kept itself above the STH cost basis and true market mean.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called 'the bottom is in' at 81,438; BTC subsequently fell ~29% to a low of 58,000 (current 58,161), so the bottom was not in." }, { "claim_text": "Once Bitcoin clears the 200-day MA, the true market mean, and the STH realized price, new all-time highs will follow shortly after.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/btcjvs/status/2049541034758078550", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Get above: True market mean ($77.9k), STH RP ($78.7k), and 200DMA ($84.5k).\n\nI think we see new highs shortly after. But until then, it's a bearish downtrend.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC never cleared the 200DMA (84.5k) β€” peaked at 82,814 β€” and instead of new highs it crashed to 58,161 (current)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin was the first asset to top this cycle and will be the first to bottom and recover in the next cycle.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-09", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/btcjvs/status/2064386756531622163", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin was the first asset to top this cycle. \nIt will be the first to bottom and recover next cycle. \n\nSame stuff, different cycle.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended cross-cycle claim with no deadline and no next-cycle recovery yet observable; undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "This cycle's total drawdown from the all-time high will land around 50% to 70%, given institutional adoption.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-17", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/Theres-Hope-for-Bitcoin-with-James-Van-Straten--SLP731-e3gipom", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "So on a full retail cycle with no institutional adoption this cycle, I would have said 70%, give or take. But because we have had institutional adoption this cycle, I would have said maybe 50% to 70% would be fair. And for that, for that drawdown.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Drawdown from the 126,296 ATH (2025-10-06) to the 58,000 low is ~54.1%, squarely within his 50-70% band." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will deliver a 200% return over two years to roughly $210k from a $70k entry.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 210000, "deadline": "2028", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/btcjvs/status/2042167510212952491", "source_type": "x", "quote": "IBIT buyers got in at $40k and saw a 200% return in less than two years. \n\nMorgan Stanley buyers got in at $70,000, a 200% return in two years is $210,000. Probable.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-09); 2028-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Tight liquidity and rising yields in 2026 could drive Bitcoin down into the $40k-$50k range.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-23", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/btcjvs/status/2036012645371838810", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I’ve been discussing an idea with @gregory_nico that 2026 could play out similarly to 2020 for Bitcoin.\n\nAs rate expectations and yields rise, tight liquidity and rising uncertainty could trigger a period of panic, potentially driving BTC down into the $40K-$50k range.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Band not yet reached (low 58,000 by deadline, never hit $50k) but the 2026 window is still open as of 2026-06-30." }, { "claim_text": "In two years Bitcoin will most likely be north of $150k.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2028", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/btcjvs/status/2031864204483862852", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Saylor knows that in two years Bitcoin will most likely be north of $150k, and these price levels will become unlikely to revisit again.\n\nThen the game is over.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-11); 2028-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will take a first crack at $100k next week.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2026-01-23", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-16", "specificity": 100, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/btcjvs/status/2012233339755761756", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Dip getting bought and turning resistance into support.\n\nFirst crack at $100k next week", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC never cracked $100k by the 2026-01-23 deadline β€” high_by_deadline was only 95,830." }, { "claim_text": "A CME gap at $90k is all but certain to be filled from the weekend move.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 90000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-01-07", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/btcjvs/status/2009006331337035860", "source_type": "x", "quote": "A CME gap at $90k is all but certain to be filled from the weekend move.\n\n$87.3k is", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-01-07..2026-07-01], reaching the $90,000 downside target." }, { "claim_text": "Supply in profit and loss converging puts Bitcoin's bottom around $60k.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-02-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/btcjvs/status/2018430566689882532", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Every bear market bottom in bitcoin has seen supply in profit and loss converge.\n\nThat would put Bitcoin around $60k.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-02-02..2026-07-01], reaching the $60,000 downside target." }, { "claim_text": "Negative perp funding and negative Coinbase premium are how Bitcoin pushes through $100k.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/btcjvs/status/2011169523693732018", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Perps funding is negative \n\nCoinbase premium is negative \n\nThis is how BTC goes through $100k", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted BTC pushes through $100k from $95,384; high since made was only $97,964 β€” never reached $100k and price collapsed to $58,161." }, { "claim_text": "A short squeeze takes Bitcoin to $65k.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 65000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-28", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/btcjvs/status/2027747761894957381", "source_type": "x", "quote": "There's your impetus for a short squeeze – $65k", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted short squeeze to $65k from $66,968 β€” BTC was already at/above $65k and rallied to $82,814 within the window, clearly clearing the level." } ] }, { "id": "jameson-lopp", "name": "Jameson Lopp", "handles": { "x": "@lopp", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.lopp.net" }, "category": [ "bitcoin-developer", "self-custody", "cypherpunk", "casa-cofounder" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 530000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitterscore.io/twitter/lopp/" }, "score": 100, "score_adj": 100, "avg_specificity": 38, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "In his Bitcoin 2023 Annual Review, Lopp characterized 2023 as the bear market ending and the bull beginning, and stated everyone was 'expecting a bull market in 2024.' A directional call that 2024 would be a bull market.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-01-06", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://blog.lopp.net/bitcoin-2023-annual-review/", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "2023 was the typical sideways action we tend to see as the bear market ends and the bull begins ... Given that we're all expecting a bull market in 2024, we should also expect the VCs to return.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called 2024 a bull market from $43,992; BTC rallied to $108,389 by the 2024-12-31 deadline β€” clearly a bull year." }, { "claim_text": "In his Bitcoin 2024 Annual Review, Lopp's takeaway from the year's metrics was that 'the bull market is underway, but a lot of folks have yet to catch on - we're far from peak hype and FOMO,' implying the bull market would continue with more upside ahead in 2025.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-05", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://blog.lopp.net/bitcoin-2024-annual-review/", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "The one theme that I've taken away from all of these metrics is that 2024 is that the bull market is underway, but a lot of folks have yet to catch on - we're far from peak hype and FOMO.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bull market with more upside ahead in 2025 from $98,345; BTC made new highs to $126,296 by the 2025-12-31 deadline." } ] }, { "id": "jason-pizzino", "name": "Jason Pizzino", "handles": { "x": "@jasonpizzino", "nostr": null, "youtube": "Jason Pizzino", "web": null }, "category": [ "analyst", "technical-analysis", "youtuber", "cycle-theorist" ], "followers": { "platform": "youtube", "count": 348000, "as_of": "2025-09-14", "source": "https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/31615734/" }, "score": 69, "score_adj": 40.4, "avg_specificity": 21, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 21, "counts": { "correct": 13, "wrong": 5, "partial": 3, "pending": 10 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "With BTC near $69k, Pizzino laid out upside TA targets of $78,500 (50% ext), $81,000 (100% ext), then $87,000, $96,000 and $113,600; said BTC getting above ~$78k could spur an altseason.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 113600, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2024-03-29", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/28787554/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "$78,500...50% comes in at $78,400. Now the 100% is at $81,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2024-03-29..2026-03-28], reaching the $113,600 target." }, { "claim_text": "Pizzino told subscribers BTC may hit a cycle top after a ~33% gain from then-current value, with a price target toward $122,000 (150% swing extension), possibly hit by January (with a slower path into March/April 2025).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 122000, "deadline": "2025-04-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-19", "specificity": 74, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2024/11/19/heres-a-potential-bitcoin-price-target-for-bull-market-top-according-to-analyst-jason-pizzino/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin may hit a cycle top after a 33% gain from its current value. The Bitcoin price target is looking towards $122,000... the six-figure price target may be hit by January.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $109,358 through the 2025-04-30 horizon; never reached $122,000." }, { "claim_text": "With BTC ~$87,877 (down ~20% from the Jan 2025 ATH), Pizzino stayed bullish: said BTC still has further upside to new higher highs because no significant breakdowns had occurred; the 'catch' was that a USDT-dominance break above 5.5-5.6% would flip the thesis bearish.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-02-27", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/30592807/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I still think that we've got further upside for $BTC, to new higher highs because we haven't seen any significant breakdowns.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called further upside to new higher highs from $84,625; BTC rose to a new ATH of $126,296 after the call." }, { "claim_text": "Pizzino (BTC ~$116,300) said a real altcoin season and a BTC push past the $150,000-$180,000 range needs USDT dominance to break below 3.7%; warned consolidation under $106,000 would look weak.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 180000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2025-08-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/31400309/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "we need to get a breakdown of 3.7% to see any sort of real altcoin season and really seeing Bitcoin pump potentially past that $150,000 to $180,000 range.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-08-08); 2027-08-08 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "With BTC ~$115,316, Pizzino said BTC is likely to hit a cycle top in Q4 (Oct/Nov) if history repeats; targets of at least $122,000 in 2025, possibly $144,000, and beyond the mid-$130,000s toward the $160,000s before year-end.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 160000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-14", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/31615734/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Beyond the mid $130,000s, we're looking still towards the $160,000s.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $160,000." }, { "claim_text": "Pizzino said BTC could hit $136,000 by the start of next year, arguing a right-translated cycle (later peak) is now effectively guaranteed; flagged ~$120,000 as a major psychological resistance zone.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 136000, "deadline": "2026-01-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-02-24", "specificity": 74, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2025/02/24/heres-a-price-target-for-bitcoins-bull-market-according-to-analyst-jason-pizzino/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin could hit a price of $136,000 by the start of next year... a right-translated cycle... is now guaranteed for Bitcoin.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-01-31 horizon; never reached $136,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's next price target after breaking the 200-week MA is the 300-week MA around $54,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 54000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-24", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2069835395035242677", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin breaks the 200W Moving Average and is trading below $60,000. \n\nNext target is the 300WMA, around $54,000.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-24); 2027-03-24 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is approaching its cycle low and the low has not yet been set.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-25", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2069934734814384261", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin is obviously weak atm. However, considering Mictrostrategy and Strategy have been crushed, BTC isn't trading so bad today. \n\nI'm not saying the low is in for Bitcoin. But I still think it is yet another sign we are getting closer to the cycle low.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Made 2026-06-25 with no deadline; only 5 days elapsed, BTC at $58,161 vs $59,704 made β€” whether the cycle low is being approached/set is still undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "A bounce is expected but a recovery from the current structure breakdown will be harder than the market believes; patience is warranted.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-07", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2063444292488884713", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin on track for its lowest weekly close since September 2024, 21 months ago, and the lowest close this bear market, below February. \n\nA bounce is expected but I think the market believes a recovery from this structure breakdown is easier than it'll be. \n\nBe patient. The time", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bounce expected and recovery hard: BTC did bounce to $67,264 from $63,303 but then fell to $58,161 β€” bounce came, recovery indeed faltered as warned, mixed." }, { "claim_text": "Once stock markets consolidate in 2026, Bitcoin prices should begin to recover again.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-05", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2062972764882133096", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The stock markets are tumbling pretty hard off the highs; right on time to take Bitcoin to a new low for this cycle. \n\nOnce the markets have time to consolidate this year, we should see prices begin to recover again.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted prices begin to recover this year (deadline 2026) after a new cycle low; by deadline BTC fell to $58,000 low and sits at $58,161 β€” no recovery, made a lower low." }, { "claim_text": "If the liquidity trend does not reverse, Bitcoin will see no new all-time high in the next cycle, or at very best only a marginal higher high before crashing.", "claim_type": "ceiling", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-03", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2062316962315911606", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Since February 2026, liquidity, and interest has been leaving Bitcoin and crypto at a rate not seen before.\n\nIf this trend does not reverse, I think no new ATH for Bitcoin in the next cycle is still on the cards, or at very best a marginal higher high before crashing, like ETH,", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Ceiling/cycle claim about 'next cycle' no new ATH; that window is long/cycle-scale and has not elapsed β€” outcome undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "The Bitcoin cycle low is approaching but has not been reached yet; more perma-bull capitulation is still needed.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-02", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2061928189430268025", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I am seeing some Bitcoin bulls beginning to pivot to \"just a few more months then we'll be right\".\n\nI'd say we are getting closer to the cycle low but not there yet. Still need more perma bulls to capitulate.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Made 2026-06-02, cycle low approaching but not reached; no deadline and the cycle-low window remains open with BTC still falling to $58,161." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin looks ready to retest the cycle lows again, as falling volume and low social interest point to further weakness.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-26", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2059085603317350778", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin looks to be getting ready to test the lows again like it does every bear market (or 4-year cycle).\n\nFalling volume, lack of social interest (search volume), and a structure reminiscent of further weakness.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted retest of cycle lows from $75,826; BTC fell to $58,000, taking out prior lows and confirming further weakness." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin may be transitioning from bearish to bullish; watch Q3 2026 for early signs of that shift.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-09-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-21", "specificity": 44, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2057273397630173695", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin is 2% from a red month after a weak bear market rally to the 200D MA. Volume is still low on the rallies which indicates sellers still outway the buyers, although both are declining. This is sign the market may be transitioning from bearish to bullish. Look out for Q3. πŸ‘Œ", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called possible bearish-to-bullish transition, watch Q3 2026; by the 2026-09-30 horizon (already past as_of in Q3 start) BTC fell from $77,548 to $58,161 β€” continued bearish, no bullish shift." }, { "claim_text": "The cycle low for Bitcoin has not been confirmed yet β€” further downside in price, time, or structure is still needed.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-03", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2051078782136762461", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin has taken 12 weeks to recover the losses of the last crash low. Prior recoveries have been 8 weeks and 2 weeks. As I've been saying in the daily YouTube videos, there are signs the tide is turning but no confirmation that the low is in yet. \n\nThat means, price, time,", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called for further downside / low not confirmed; BTC fell from $78,559 to $58,000 (now $58,161), so more downside in price and time clearly followed." }, { "claim_text": "The Bitcoin cycle bottom has not been confirmed β€” buying the bottom is premature.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-25", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2047842268141478206", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Every person who says the caught the bitcoin bottom probably have an average price higher than the current price. \n\nIf you don't understand this, then you're also getting fooled. \n\n(Btw- the bottom isn't confirmed either)", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said the bottom was not confirmed and buying was premature; BTC dropped from $77,651 to $58,000 afterward, confirming buyers there were premature." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is about to see another correction on increasing volume, consistent with historical bear market finales, signaling the bear market is nearing its end.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-23", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2047448066681372761", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin is repeating the 12-year-old pattern of rallying on low volume to the 200W MA.\n\nWhat followed in all prior bear markets was another correction on INCREASING volume which is a great sign the bear market is coming to an end and beginning it's final transition.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "The predicted 'another correction' materialized (low $58,000), but the 'bear market coming to an end' thesis is unconfirmed β€” BTC is still at fresh lows ($58,161), no transition out yet." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's cycle low price zone is between $40,000 and $55,000.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-20", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2046070816211951880", "source_type": "x", "quote": "\"Bitcoin will trade under $50k *only* if the 50% level is broken.\" - 31/12/25\n\nUpdate: it was broken in February. My low target has been between $30k-$50k, but as we get closer to the cycle low in time, I'm moving more towards $40k-$55k as a low price zone. The charts will", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$40k-$55k low zone never reached β€” low since is $58,000 (now $58,161, just above the band); the cycle-low window is still open with price approaching but not in the band." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin price will go lower because it has not closed above the 50% level ($71,000); every prior cycle has led to further declines from this point.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 71000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-07", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2041330959854051787", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin rejected again below the 50% level, $71,000. \n\nEvery cycle Bitcoin closes below this level, price has always gone down more. The low isn't in yet.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted further declines after rejecting below ~$71k 50% level; BTC fell from $71,910 to $58,000, low clearly not yet in." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will eventually produce a convincing relief rally that fools market participants into believing the low is in.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-02", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2039834523270299693", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin will eventually have a relief rally that makes people believe the low is in and we all missed it. \n\nThat's what is meant by \"bear markets will do enough to fool the bulls and the bears.\"", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Anticipated a convincing relief rally that fools people the low is in; BTC rallied from $66,894 to $82,814 (+24%) then collapsed back to $58,000 β€” exactly that fake-out." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin needs to reclaim above $81k after April 1 or it heads lower again.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 81000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2031581169004015774", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The Bitcoin bulls need a miracle. That miracle entails >$81k after the 1st of April. Otherwise, we do the dance again.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "His condition (>$81k after April 1) was actually met β€” high $82,814 β€” yet BTC still 'did the dance again' and crashed to $58,000, so the bullish implication of the reclaim failed; the dichotomy resolved both ways." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's bear-market relief rally targets $79k-$81k.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 81000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2029343817766449228", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin bear market rally per the ST forecast. $71k broken, with $74k/$75k as first resistance. The next target is $79k-$81k. All rallies below this level are still treated as counter-trend moves.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Relief-rally target $79k-$81k was reached and exceeded β€” high since made was $82,814 (from $72,683)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will break above $71k in a 2-5 week bear-market rally.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 71000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-17", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2023558545095213494", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin is setting up for its best chance at breaking above $71,000 since the collapse 2 weeks ago. It's all part of the bear market rally, which typically lasts 2-5 weeks.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Broke above $71k within the 2-5 week window β€” spot was $72,683 by March 4 (made Feb 17), and rally ran to $82,814." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will see a short-term rally lasting 2-5 weeks.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-10", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2021039410222125558", "source_type": "x", "quote": "After hitting an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin has plunged over 50%, even falling below $71k which is the bull market halfway point. Institutions/buyers have been stepping in again, which I think will lead to a short-term rally lasting 2-5 weeks", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "A short-term rally materialized in the 2-5 week window β€” from $68,804 (Feb 10) to ~$72,683 by early March, ultimately peaking at $82,814." }, { "claim_text": "With a monthly close below $71k, Bitcoin's bear market continues at least 6+ more months before a low.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": 71000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2019252431352393976", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The $71,000 level is the halfway point of the Bitcoin Bull Market. Every time in history that BTC has closed on a monthly basis under the 50% level (halfway point), the bear market has continued for several more months at least 6+ months before a low is found.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claim is 'at least 6+ months before a low' (made Feb 5, window to ~Aug 5); at as_of June 30 (~4.8 months) the bear has indeed continued with no low (now $58,161), but the 6-month window has not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Unless Bitcoin closes above $98k the bearish base case (more downside) stays in play.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 98000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2014172817353248894", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The last remaining hopium for the bulls is playing out right now. BTC price needs a close above $98k for the relief rally to gain any slithers of strength left in it. Otherwise, our base case of the last 2-3 months remains in play. #Bitcoin", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC never closed above $98k (high since was only $91,147) and the bearish base case played out β€” price fell from $89,464 to $58,000." }, { "claim_text": "Closes under $86k-$89k would confirm Bitcoin's macro downtrend continues.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 89000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-20", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2013537231584289211", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin continues to tumble and is on the cusp of completing the relief rally (a counter trend rally in a macro down trend). Closes under support around $86k-$89k would almost seal the deal on finally invalidating the latest narratives of \"5-year\" cycles and \"business cycles\".", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Support at $86k-$89k broke decisively; BTC fell to $58,000 low and sits at $58,161, confirming the macro downtrend continued." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's first closing target for the bulls is $108k.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 108000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2025-11-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/1988860035556856081", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin rallying off $100k, forming a higher low. The first closing target for the bulls is $108k. Otherwise, you know what happens.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $104,050 since 2025-11-13); 2026-08-13 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "With local lows confirmed, Bitcoin's minimum upside target is $113k.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 113000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2025-11-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/1987658566292189399", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin and Ethereum local lows are confirmed. The hard work is ahead to overbalance the short-term bears. The minimum target is $113k", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $107,482 since 2025-11-09); 2026-08-09 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is bouncing off $107k and heading for $111k.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 111000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2025-10-30", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/1983818598889222263", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin bulls not giving up the fight yet. Nice bounce off $107k, now heading for $111k. Make a wish", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $111,629 in [2025-10-30..2026-07-01], reaching the $111,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is expected to fall toward the $54,000 zone (300-week MA / Feb 2024 low), his conservative downside price target.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 54000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-28", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/jasonpizzino/status/2071367652761850199", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin finishing the week weak and potentially closing at its lowest price since September 2024. \n\nThe next lowest closing price is February 2024 at $54,000 which is also the 300W MA and in our conservative price target zone.\n\nMajor time frames all closing this week, too.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $54,000 (through 2026-07-01)." } ] }, { "id": "jeff-booth", "name": "Jeff Booth", "handles": { "x": "@JeffBooth", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.jeffbooth.ca/" }, "category": [ "author", "investor", "macro-thinker", "bitcoiner" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 380300, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/JeffBooth" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Jeff Booth predicts that capital which has ported out of Bitcoin into AI and other hype assets will eventually return to Bitcoin, making self-custody holders do exceptionally well.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Is-AI-Killing-Bitcoin--The-Brutal-Truth-Behind-the-Crash---Truth-Block-e3kbt5m", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I don't know when the port comes back into this and the out of the other things that Samson was talking about, but it is going to happen. The people porting out of Bitcoin are running into assets priced in the exact money being debased to fund the mania.", "timestamp": "0:04:22", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claim commits to Bitcoin eventually recapturing capital that rotated into AI and hype assets, with no specific deadline given." } ] }, { "id": "jeff-park", "name": "Jeff Park", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 16.7, "score_adj": 22.1, "avg_specificity": 29, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 3, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 2, "partial": 1, "pending": 3 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's price should currently be closer to $170K based on its underperformance relative to gold.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 170000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2025-09-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Why-Bitcoins-Next-Bull-Run-Could-Be-Unlike-Any-Other--Jeff-Park-e383sc4", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Because it's lagging gold to where I think we all expect it to go higher and per pursuit, the price should be closer to 170K or so. It'll happen very fast.", "timestamp": "0:19:22", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-06-11 horizon; never reached $170,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's near-term price target is $150K–$170K based on underperformance versus gold, and could reach $200K+ with structural treasury company buying.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Why-Bitcoins-Next-Bull-Run-Could-Be-Unlike-Any-Other--Jeff-Park-e383sc4", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think the price target most people have in mind is it should really be right now around 150 to 170K just based upon what we're seeing in its relative underperformance to gold. And I think if you were to think there was going to be more buying coming from a structural perspective with these treasury companies...that could push it up to 200K plus.", "timestamp": "0:21:51", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Near-term $150K-$170K target never reached β€” high since made was only $126,296, then BTC crashed to $58,161." }, { "claim_text": "This quarter (Q4 2025) is one of the best setups for Bitcoin ever and the price will move very quickly upward.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-11", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Why-Bitcoins-Next-Bull-Run-Could-Be-Unlike-Any-Other--Jeff-Park-e383sc4", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "So I think really this quarter coming for the end of the year is one of the best setup for Bitcoin we can ever have.", "timestamp": "0:20:03", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Made a marginal new high to $126,296 in Q4 2025 (from $115,540) but the quarter also dropped to $80,525 by deadline β€” upward move was real but weak/mixed, not the quick rip implied." }, { "claim_text": "Jeff Park of Bitwise predicts a big Bitcoin price move up, possibly within 2026, led by IBIT options and gamma dynamics from scarcity.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-29", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/INSIDER-REVEALS-How-Bitcoin-NEEDS-Blackrock-To-Get-10M-Bitcoin----EP-1493-e3ilggg", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "my bold prediction is that we're going to see a big bitcoin move up it might be within this year... my prediction is that it is going to be led by ibit options and the reflexive nature in which the gamma that is possibly created within something like bitcoin due to its scarcity can really really lead the next leg up", "timestamp": "0:22:32", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Window open to 2026-12-31; no big move up yet β€” high since made only $82,814 and BTC has since fallen to $58,161, but year-end outcome undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Jeff Park expects Bitcoin to have a great run in 2026 after digesting current cycle headwinds, predicting upward directional momentum driven by institutional capital flows.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-13", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Is-100k-Bitcoin-The-New-Normal---Jeff-Park-e3aufn8", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "maybe what we're living through now is a pull forward of what might have been the four-year cycle in 2026. Like, are we now digesting what otherwise could have been a challenging environment, preemptively, to have a great run come 2026?", "timestamp": "0:05:56", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claim commits to Bitcoin experiencing a notably positive run (net upside) during calendar year 2026." }, { "claim_text": "Jeff Park believes Bitcoin's recent underperformance relative to gold and global M2 represents a coiled-spring setup that will produce meaningfully strong upward moves in a rapid pace.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-25", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Is-the-Bull-Market-Over--Bitcoins-Next-Move-Explained--Jeff-Park-e38n43q", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think sometimes these are actually the coil spring effects, as I've observed, that really can create some meaningfully strong moves in a rapid pace.", "timestamp": "0:32:22", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claim commits to Bitcoin snapping back upward strongly in the near term after lagging gold and global M2 liquidity; resolves bullish if Bitcoin posts a sharp multi-percent rally by end of 2025, bearish if it continues to lag or declines." } ] }, { "id": "jeff-ross", "name": "Jeff Ross", "handles": { "x": "@VailshireCap", "nostr": "npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l", "youtube": null, "web": "vailshire.com" }, "category": [ "fund-manager" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 93700, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twidoom.com/en/VailshireCap/" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": 14.1, "avg_specificity": 15, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 11, "counts": { "correct": 5, "wrong": 5, "partial": 1, "pending": 4 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $475,000 by Halloween (Oct 31) 2025. Ross explicitly 'broke the cardinal rule' by picking both a date and a price, and noted he had been making this call for about a year.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 475000, "deadline": "2025-10-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-10-01", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-fundamentals/bitcoin-mastermind-3rd-quarter-2024-w-joe-carlasare-jeff-ross-and-american-hodl/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "this is the, I'm breaking all the Cardinal rules. You don't pick a date and a price, but I'm doing both. I'm saying at Halloween of 2025, we'll be at 475K. ... I've been saying this for like a year though, this is nothing new.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-10-31 horizon; never reached $475,000." }, { "claim_text": "Re-affirmed his $475,000 Bitcoin price target for 2025, arguing the cycle could peak in late 2025, driven by global liquidity and PMI/manufacturing recovery.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 475000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-15", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://mysoundwise.com/episodes/17383167954380586e", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "break down his $475,000 bitcoin price target for 2025 and why he's more bullish than ever", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $475,000." }, { "claim_text": "Near-term: after Bitcoin taps the prior all-time high it shoots higher, reaching $140,000-$160,000 'before people can blink.' Said while BTC was ~$112-113k at recording.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 140000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2025-07-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-fundamentals/bitcoin-mastermind-q2-2025-joe-carlasare-america-hodl-and-jeff-ross/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think it taps on the door and then it shoots higher. And I think we'll be at one 40 to one 60 before people can blink.", "timestamp": "00:12:27", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-04-22 horizon; never reached $140,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bullish directional call at ~$96k: 'we're definitely not at the top, we're just getting started' β€” rejecting the idea that Bitcoin near $96k was a cycle top.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-17", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-fundamentals/4q-2024-bitcoin-mastermind-joe-carlasare-jeff-ross-american-hodl/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Yeah. So we're definitely not at the top where we're just getting started.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Not the top β€” BTC rose ~19% from $106,137 to a new high of $126,296 before rolling over, vindicating 'just getting started.'" }, { "claim_text": "Bullish directional call at ~$84k: 'I'm very bullish here for Bitcoin' and expected it to 'rip from here,' while flagging a possible sideways/dip to ~$70k (to fill a CME gap) as a buying opportunity before the move up.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-03-18", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-fundamentals/bitcoin-mastermind-discussion-q1-2025/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I'm very bullish here for Bitcoin. ... we may see another couple of weeks of sideways chop, but very bullish. ... say, in the coming weeks, Bitcoin chops sideways and dips as low as 70K, which I think is actually possible.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bullish call paid off β€” BTC ripped from $82,699 to $126,296 (+53%) within the window." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has one more leg lower before the cycle bottom is officially in; would not be surprised by a new low for this cycle.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-17", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/ft5YvUgpKVlgXbh1UMUi/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I just kind of think it has one more leg lower before it's officially the bottom.", "timestamp": "0:04:09", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "One more leg lower materialized β€” from $77,098 BTC fell to a new cycle low of $58,000 (now $58,161)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will dip into the 50,000s (sub-60K) one more time for a new cycle low.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 59000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-04-17", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/ft5YvUgpKVlgXbh1UMUi/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "To answer your second question first, I said hey to the 58k gang. I think we could have one more time where we dip down into the 50,000s.", "timestamp": "0:05:58", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-04-17..2026-07-01], reaching the $59,000 downside target." }, { "claim_text": "After a weak first three quarters, Bitcoin and risk assets will finish 2026 strong, with bullishness reigniting around Q4 / the US midterm elections.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-17", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/ft5YvUgpKVlgXbh1UMUi/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "But I would say by Q4, the fourth quarter, somewhere around the midterm elections here in the U.S., that usually tends to reignite some bullishness. And just based on cyclical patterns, I would be surprised if we didn't have kind of a bullish end to the year after sort of a disappointing half to three quarters of a year leading up to that.", "timestamp": "0:09:05", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Window open to 2026-12-31; Q4 2026 / midterm-season strength hasn't occurred yet (BTC at $58,161, down from $77,098)." }, { "claim_text": "If the US economy takes off again or strong news comes from Congress, Bitcoin could quickly go to 150K or 200K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2025-12-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/eV0MtUhvSWtCh51DhGmF/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "asset. I wouldn't get too excited about the price of Bitcoin until you start seeing signs that the U.S. economy is starting to take off again. or if we have some really good news come out of like, say, Congress, I think it could quickly go to 150 or 200K if that happens. Is this an age of abundance or is it like another Great Depression?", "timestamp": "0:00:20", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-12-22); 2026-09-22 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is at or near a bottom at these (late-December 2025) levels.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-22", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/eV0MtUhvSWtCh51DhGmF/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Although I think it's close to a bottom. I think it's at or near a bottom at these levels. I think 2026 is looking good. And I think that's because the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will finally basically start taking effect. I think the accounting rules that are going to be in place starting in 2026 are going to start taking an effect. And I think people shouldn't underestimate how strong that impact will be.", "timestamp": "0:03:12", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Not a bottom β€” from $88,557 BTC fell to $58,000 low and sits at $58,161, far below the claimed bottom." }, { "claim_text": "Flipping from bearish to quite bullish and constructive on Bitcoin for 2026.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/eV0MtUhvSWtCh51DhGmF/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "So I've basically, yes, I'm bearish currently. And I flipped to now being instead of bearish for 2026, I'm actually quite bullish and constructive on 2026. with one more caveat, and then I'll stop, is that I think I wouldn't get too excited", "timestamp": "0:03:25", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bullish-for-2026 thesis window open to 2026-12-31; BTC down ~34% from $88,557 to $58,161 so far, but year-end outcome undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "After a disappointing first three quarters, 2026 will finish strong with a bullish Q4 around the U.S. midterm elections.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-17", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/ft5YvUgpKVlgXbh1UMUi/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think the year is going to finish strong based on the things that I'm looking at... by Q4, the fourth quarter, somewhere around the midterm elections here in the U.S., that usually tends to reignite some bullishness... I'm not bullish for now, but I plan on being bullish as the year ends.", "timestamp": "0:08:02", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Same Q4-2026 strong-finish call; window open to 2026-12-31, outcome undetermined (BTC at $58,161, down from $77,098)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's current bull cycle will peak sometime in Q4 2025 before rolling over.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-09-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/Bitcoin-The-Great-Absorber-of-Liquidity-with-Dr--Jeff-Ross-SLP606-e2ou573", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "my guess if i had to guess i think it's going to peak somewhere in the fourth quarter of 2025 before it rolls over again", "timestamp": "0:12:49", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Cycle peaked in Q4 2025 (all-time high $126,296 on Oct 6, 2025) then rolled over to $58k β€” timing call landed exactly." }, { "claim_text": "Jeff Ross expects Bitcoin's best price performance is still ahead, with latecomers eventually piling back in several hundred thousand dollars higher, and 2026 to be the exciting year.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-22", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC3196704531.mp3?updated=1761053899", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I still think our best days are ahead of us... I think a lot of people are going to bail in December and think it's over. And then it's going to get fun after that. And they're going to miss it. And they're going to be piling back in several hundred thousand dollars higher. So very personally, I'm very optimistic for what's coming in 2026.", "timestamp": "0:05:31", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Opposite happened: from $107,586 BTC topped at $116,410 then crashed to $58,161 by deadline β€” no 'several hundred thousand higher,' 2026 was a collapse." }, { "claim_text": "Jeff Ross believes Bitcoin is in a bull market where all dips should be bought.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-18", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC5555512122.mp3?updated=1749010181", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think we're generally in a bull market right now. I do think all dips in general, again, not individual investment advice ever, but I do think we're in the phase where all dips are for buying.", "timestamp": "0:05:19", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Rallied from $100,151 to $126,296 (dips buyable for a while), but the bull market broke and price fell to $58,161 β€” below entry, so 'all dips for buying' ultimately failed." } ] }, { "id": "jeff-walton", "name": "Jeff Walton", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 0, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "The four-year cycle is probably broken; we haven't experienced a euphoric bull run yet, implying one is still to come.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-10", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/6xR4JybwB2Ze29DszNuI/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "So I think that the four-year cycle is probably broken and you've got a lot of people that have been selling because of four-year cycle, this is the top. But we really haven't experienced a euphoric bull run.", "timestamp": "0:25:44", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "No euphoric bull run came: from $92,036 BTC only reached $97,964 then crashed to $58,161 β€” the four-year-cycle-top sellers were vindicated." }, { "claim_text": "Expects roughly a 30% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Bitcoin going forward, derived from institutional structure and global monetary dynamics.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/UkzHY05kovDrTPkeT5MQ/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I've heard you say you think a 30% CAGR is reasonable. How do you get there? Yeah, we get there from really several different things. It's institutional structure. It's the dynamics of capital globally. It's the global d", "timestamp": "0:24:53", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Forward-looking long-horizon CAGR expectation with no specific near-term deadline; cannot be resolved against current ground truth (BTC ~$63,556 on 2026-06-20). Treated as a long-range directional growth call." } ] }, { "id": "jesse-myers", "name": "Jesse Myers (Croesus)", "handles": { "x": "@Croesus_BTC", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.onceinaspecies.com" }, "category": [ "long-term-bull", "power-law", "valuation-modeler", "bitcoin-strategy" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 100000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/Croesus_BTC" }, "score": 59.1, "score_adj": 62.1, "avg_specificity": 43, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 11, "counts": { "correct": 5, "wrong": 3, "partial": 3, "pending": 9 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will 5x in the next 3 years; 'If Bitcoin does just ΒΌ what it did over the same time frame last halving cycle, Bitcoin will 5x between now and 2025. This would put Bitcoin at $100k/coin.' He anticipated 'that next peak will be at least $100k/Bitcoin.' (Written when BTC was ~$18.5k-$20k.)", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-09-22", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.onceinaspecies.com/p/bitcoin-will-5x-in-the-next-3-years", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "If Bitcoin does just ΒΌ what it did over the same time frame last halving cycle, Bitcoin will 5x between now and 2025. This would put Bitcoin at $100k/coin ... I'm anticipating that next peak will be at least $100k/Bitcoin.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2022-09-22..2025-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Over the next three years Bitcoin will 5-10x, meaning $100-200k/coin. The $100k base case ('at least $100k') is captured separately; this records the upper end of the stated 3-year range, $200k.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-09-22", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.onceinaspecies.com/p/bitcoin-will-5x-in-the-next-3-years", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "over the next three years Bitcoin will 5-10x, meaning $100-200k/coin", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will NOT reach $100,000 before the 2024 halving (April 2024); six figures will only come AFTER the halving, as the market prices in the changed supply reality over the 12-18 months post-halving.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2024-04-20", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-08-15", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://en.coin-turk.com/bitcoin-price-will-only-reach-six-figures-after-halving-event-according-to-jesse-myers/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin won't reach $100,000 before the next halving ... the market will price in the changing reality during the 12-18 months after [the halving].", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC did NOT reach $100k before the April 2024 halving β€” high by deadline was only $73,836." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's conservative full-potential valuation is $10M/Bitcoin in today's dollars over 'coming decades' (assuming BTC captures ~25% of global asset value, up from ~0.05%); his framework implies a maximum potential market cap around $200T (~$10M/BTC) and ~$1M/BTC at ~$20T captured.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2023-02-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.onceinaspecies.com/p/bitcoins-full-potential-valuation", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "My conservative estimates suggest an outrageous full potential for Bitcoin's price: $10m/Bitcoin, in today's dollars.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-02-16); 2028-02-16 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has a 90%+ chance of going to $1m in the next 10 years (a 20x from the ~$50k price at the time). He frames it as the highest-expected-value asset (18x).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2031-09-13", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-09-13", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Croesus_BTC/status/1437508161221509120", "source_type": "x", "quote": "At this point, #Bitcoin has a 90%+ chance of going to $1m in the next 10 years. (20x from here)\n\nNothing else comes close to an expected value of 18x\n\nAs investors come to understand why the above is true, all will realize they are seriously underweight Bitcoin", "timestamp": "2021-09-13T20:07:07.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2021-09-13); 2031-09-13 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "$500k/coin is very possible for Bitcoin this decade (i.e., by the end of the 2020s).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": "2029-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-10-07", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Croesus_BTC/status/1710721177529032940", "source_type": "x", "quote": "@cc_tankumo My view is that Bitcoin is the only coin worth touching (that article expands on that view)\n\nAnd I think that $500k/coin is very possible for Bitcoin this decade. As crazy as that sounds on the surface\n\nSome miners will do well, but the underlying asset (spot Bitcoin) best, imo", "timestamp": "2023-10-07T18:18:07.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-10-07); 2029-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Quoting his own March 2023 Once-in-a-Species call: 'Bitcoin's price could settle somewhere in the $30-45k range over the next year.' In Nov 2023 he confirms BTC is 'dead-center in that range.'", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2024-03-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-11-09", "specificity": 44, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Croesus_BTC/status/1722636976564617716", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Once-in-a-Species subscribers received this in March 2023...\n\n\"Bitcoin’s price could settle somewhere in the $30-45k range over the next year.\"\n\nLooks like we're dead-center in that range now. \n\nSee what this article predicts for next year too... \nhttps://t.co/zFJmHaUitC", "timestamp": "2023-11-09T15:27:14.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC was in the $30-45k band at the call ($36,707) and traded there through 2023, but blew past to $73,836 by the March 2024 window close β€” exceeded the range, not 'settled' in it." }, { "claim_text": "Late Nov 2021, near the cycle high: 'this bull has a lot more to run' - adjusted for money printing the 2021 bull market still had significant upside ahead.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2022-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-11-30", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Croesus_BTC/status/1465774886408753152", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#Bitcoin price divided by number of dollars in existence. Bottom this summer was just a retest of Dec 2017 value\n\nBulk of 2021 was a massive consolidation, ripe for breakout\n\nTranslation: adjusted for money printing, clear that this bull has a lot more to run", "timestamp": "2021-11-30T20:09:00.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "It was the top, not 'more to run': from $56,988 BTC crashed to $15,460 in 2022, barely back to $59,250 by deadline." }, { "claim_text": "Late Sept 2022: Bitcoin (dollar-strength-adjusted) 'sure looks like it's forming a bottom ... Looks a lot like early 2019' - calling a cycle bottom near the ~$19k level.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2023-06-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-09-26", "specificity": 44, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Croesus_BTC/status/1574439268457406464", "source_type": "x", "quote": "This is BTCUSD*DXY, which normalizes BTC price vs. dollar strength. \n\n#Bitcoin sure looks like it's forming a bottom, in dollar-adjusted terms. Looks a lot like early 2019.", "timestamp": "2022-09-26T16:42:27.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bottom-forming/recovery thesis broadly right (recovered to $31,444 by deadline), but the actual low was $15,460 β€” ~20% below the called ~$19k level." }, { "claim_text": "His MIT presentation (given the day after the April 2024 halving), restated here: Bitcoin's post-halving price run would start ~6 months after the halving and 'really heat up' at ~9 months.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-01-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-24", "specificity": 66, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Croesus_BTC/status/1871585241741283406", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The #Bitcoin halving was 8 months ago.\n\nI gave this presentation at MIT the day after the halving...\n\nExplaining why Bitcoin's price run would start at 6 monthsβœ…\n\nand really heat up at ~9 monthsβŒ›οΈπŸš€\n\n(Bookmark / retweet to keep handy for Christmas!πŸŽ„)\n\nhttps://t.co/3RoJXxR47C", "timestamp": "2024-12-24T15:54:28.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Price run heated up at the ~9-month mark as called: from $98,594 BTC ran to $109,358 by the Jan 2025 deadline." }, { "claim_text": "Late Nov 2024: 'Nobody asked me about #Bitcoin at Thanksgiving. Means the top is next year. Much higher.' - the cycle top would come in 2025 and at a much higher price than the ~$95k at the time.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-29", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Croesus_BTC/status/1862633772866248836", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Nobody asked me about #Bitcoin at Thanksgiving.\n\nMeans the top is next year.\n\nMuch higher.", "timestamp": "2024-11-29T23:04:32.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Top came in 2025 and much higher: high by deadline $126,296 vs $97,491 at the call." }, { "claim_text": "Oct 20, 2025, near the all-time high: 'Some people think the #Bitcoin bull market is over? Looks to me like it hasn't even started yet' - implying substantial further upside ahead.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-06-20", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-20", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Croesus_BTC/status/1980295487107543176", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin price divided by ounce of gold price.\n\nSome people think the #Bitcoin bull market is over?\n\nLooks to me like it hasn't even started yet.", "timestamp": "2025-10-20T15:30:10.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "No substantial upside: from $110,568 BTC peaked at $116,410 then crashed ~47% to $58,161 β€” bull market was effectively over, not 'just starting.'" }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will still be crashing to $120k in four years, sarcastically implying price will be much higher.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 120000, "deadline": "2030", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-25", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Croesus_BTC/status/2070155594288316593", "source_type": "x", "quote": "In the depths of last bear market (<$20k), I longed to be back here ($58k)\n\n4 years from now, maybe we'll be despondent as Bitcoin crashes to $120k", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $61,868 since 2026-06-25); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is less than 1% of the way to its end-state price of $10 million per coin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-05-19", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Croesus_BTC/status/2056732466342195435", "source_type": "x", "quote": "BTC is still <1% of the way to end state ($10m / BTC)", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $78,124 since 2026-05-19); 2031-05-19 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin bull market will continue through 2025 until early FOMO buyers reach euphoria, then top.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-21", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Croesus_BTC/status/1859651487338725581", "source_type": "x", "quote": "2025 will continue that, until eventually early FOMOers feel euphoria. then we top", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bull continued through 2025 to a higher top as called: high by deadline $126,296 (from $98,439), then it rolled over." }, { "claim_text": "$100k is just the beginning for Bitcoin and price will continue to rise.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Croesus_BTC/status/1864437854849397208", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$100k is just the beginning.\n\nEnjoy", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Rose from $98,746 to $126,296 ('beginning' looked right) but then collapsed to $58,161, below entry β€” 'continue to rise' ultimately failed." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will be bid to incredible heights as treasury companies channel global capital into it.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Croesus_BTC/status/2016883864241582189", "source_type": "x", "quote": "There are only 2 possible outcomes:\n\n1. @saylor runs out of capital looking to get 10-13% annual yield... when $450T+ of global capital is in similar instruments getting ~5%\n\nOR\n\n2. #Bitcoin gets bid to incredible heights", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended long-run 'bid to incredible heights' thesis with no deadline; high since made only $89,210 vs made $84,513 and price has since fallen to $58,161, but the cycle/long window has not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is at the start of a 2+ year bull market based on its Bitcoin/Gold RSI bouncing from an all-time-low oversold condition.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-22", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Croesus_BTC/status/2046954182700081162", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Update: Bitcoin bounced out of oversold, rallying against Gold.\n\nEvery time this has happened in Bitcoin's history, it was the start of a 2+ year bull market.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'Start of a 2+ year bull market' claimed 2026-04-22 at $78,209; the 2+ year window is wide open (only ~2 months elapsed), high since just $82,814 and now $58,161 β€” undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Jesse Myers argues Bitcoin's full potential valuation is $10 million per coin in today's dollars, based on Bitcoin capturing portions of the $900 trillion global asset market.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2023-11-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD733_-_Jesse_Myer_.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "This sounds crazy. And I get that. $10 million per Bitcoin is what this resulted in. And I think it's kind of conservative in its estimates. And that's crazy.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-11-08); 2028-11-08 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "$100k is just another stop on the way to $1M, which is a stop on the way to $10M.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-09-19", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Croesus_BTC/status/1704177349430776220", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$100,000 per #Bitcoin is great and all, but do you realize how small $2.1T is? That ain't the end of the line for this train\n\n$100k is just another stop on the way to $1M... which is just another stop on the way to $10M.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-09-19); 2029-09-19 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "jim-bianco", "name": "Jim Bianco", "handles": { "x": "@biancoresearch", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.biancoresearch.com" }, "category": [ "macro_strategist", "analyst", "skeptic" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 581300, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://www.sotwe.com/biancoresearch?lang=en" }, "score": 75, "score_adj": 65.4, "avg_specificity": 39, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 0, "partial": 1, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "With six weeks left in the year, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are down on the year; if this holds, crypto will be one of the worst-performing asset classes in 2025.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-14", "specificity": 54, "citation": { "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/11/48888479/jim-bianco-says-crypto-on-track-to-be-worst-performing-asset-class-of-2025-if-bitcoin-ethereum-remain-in-red-by-end-of-year", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bianco pointed out that crypto is on track to be the worst-performing asset class of 2025, if the top two cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, close the year in the red. (Original X post: 'With six weeks left in the year, both Bitcoin (orange) and Ethereum (blue) are now down on the year. If this holds, crypto will be one of the worst-performing asset classes in 2025.')", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Window elapsed; BTC made 2025-11-14 at $94,504 with high_by_deadline $99,836 and low $80,525 β€” whether it closed the year red (vs ~$93-94k Jan open) is ambiguous from the facts, not a clean confirmation." }, { "claim_text": "On the ETF-issuer thesis that 'boomer' FOMO would push Bitcoin from $90k-$100k up to $150,000: 'If that's what you think is going to cause Bitcoin to go to $150,000, I'm very worried.' (Skeptical that the FOMO-driven $150k narrative would play out.)", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-04-23", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.dlnews.com/articles/snapshot/etfs-are-bad-for-bitcoin-says-strategist-jim-bianco/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "They're literally not hiding the ball. They're saying every boomer is going to call its wealth manager and FOMO into this thing at $90,000 and $100,000 and take it to $150,000. ... If that's what you think is going to cause Bitcoin to go to $150,000, I'm very worried.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Skeptical that boomer FOMO would push BTC to $150k; peak since the call was only $126,296, never reaching $150k, and it has since fallen to $58,161." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin is developed further with more use cases, it will reach a price of $1 million.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2024-09-17", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/jim-bianco-fed-rate-cuts-etf-outflows-and-how-bitcoin-gets-to-1-million", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Now, if you do that and you develop it out and you make it more enticing and there are more use cases for it, you'll get to a million.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-09-17); 2029-09-17 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "jim-chanos", "name": "Jim Chanos", "handles": { "x": "@RealJimChanos", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "short-seller", "hedge-fund-manager", "crypto-skeptic" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 63200, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/RealJimChanos" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [] }, { "id": "jimmy-song", "name": "Jimmy Song", "handles": { "x": "@jimmysong", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://jimmysong.substack.com/" }, "category": [ "developer", "educator", "author", "bitcoin-maximalist" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": null, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/jimmysong" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [] }, { "id": "joe-burnett", "name": "Joe Burnett", "handles": { "x": "@IIICapital", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://themustardseed21.substack.com" }, "category": [ "analyst", "bitcoin-strategist", "long-term-bull" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 0, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/IIICapital (auth-walled; precise count not retrievable; >41k reported as of 2022-12-31 via search snippet, current count unverified)" }, "score": 28.6, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 19, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 7, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 5, "partial": 0, "pending": 8 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is going to $1,000,000+ and 99.9% of you on this website won't believe me.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2022-12-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IIICapital/status/1604318817945112576", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin is going to $1,000,000+ and 99.9% of you on this website won’t believe me.", "timestamp": "2022-12-18T03:33:07.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2022-12-18); 2028-12-18 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Fairly convinced that a fed pause will mark the Bitcoin bottom and ignite the early stages of the next bull run. We are close.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-12-16", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IIICapital/status/1603798252352069633", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Fairly convinced that a fed pause will mark the Bitcoin bottom and ignite the early stages of the next bull run.\n\nExciting times. We are close.", "timestamp": "2022-12-16T17:04:35.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Fed-pause-marks-bottom call made 2022-12-16 at $16,633; low since was $16,273 (bottom held) and BTC ignited a bull run to $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is at $77,000, but I believe it is going to $7,700,000. Your wealth is melting. Buy Bitcoin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 7700000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-04-23", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IIICapital/status/2047294680455426528", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin is at $77,000, but I believe it is going to $7,700,000.\n\nYour wealth is melting.\n\nBuy Bitcoin.", "timestamp": "2026-04-23T12:41:03.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-23); 2032-04-23 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The ongoing miner capitulation suggests Bitcoin is in the process of forming a durable bottom.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-16", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IIICapital/status/2066867890041868559", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin and energy are inextricably linked.\n\nThe ongoing miner capitulation suggests Bitcoin is in the process of forming a durable bottom.\n\nI like the energy money 🟠.", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:58:00.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'Durable bottom forming' claimed 2026-06-16 at $65,617, but price promptly fell to $58,000 and sits at $58,161 β€” the supposed bottom did not hold." }, { "claim_text": "I definitely would not be surprised at all to see $200,000 Bitcoin or $250,000 Bitcoin this year (2025).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-07", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/how-high-can-bitcoin-go-unchained-forecasts-250k-btc-price-in-2025-and-1m-by-2030/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I definitely would not be surprised at all to see $200,000 Bitcoin or $250,000 Bitcoin this year", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $250,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, more than a 10x increase from levels around $97,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2030-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-07", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/how-high-can-bitcoin-go-unchained-forecasts-250k-btc-price-in-2025-and-1m-by-2030/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Beyond 2025, Burnett forecasts a staggering $1 million by 2030.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-05-07); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin at $10 million by 2035 (base case for Q1 2035), implying a ~$200 trillion total market value (~11% of projected global wealth).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000000, "deadline": "2035-03-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-03-01", "specificity": 44, "citation": { "url": "https://themustardseed21.substack.com/p/q1-203510m-bitcoin", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "The theme of this quarter: Bitcoin at $10 million by 2035.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-03-01); 2035-03-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "My base case for Q1 2036 is $11 million per bitcoin (driven by AI-led deflation plus sustained monetary expansion; BTC ~12% of projected global financial assets).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 11000000, "deadline": "2036-03-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-02", "specificity": 44, "citation": { "url": "https://themustardseed21.substack.com/p/q1-2036-11-million-bitcoin", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "My base case for Q1 2036 is $11 million per bitcoin.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-02); 2036-03-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin price will be between roughly $41,000 and $165,000 by year-end 2026.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-02", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IIICapital/status/2061766152523587677", "source_type": "x", "quote": "If you expect bitcoin to compound at 30% annually with 45% annualized volatility, then you can be 95% confident its price will be between roughly $41,000 and $165,000 by year-end.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Range $41k–$165k by year-end 2026; window open until 2026-12-31. Current $58,161 is inside the band but the deadline has not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will soon begin another slow upward ascent after the bear market bottom.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-12-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IIICapital/status/1608469026312802306", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Everyone is bearish, yet Bitcoin is still trading around the same price it was in June ($17.5k).\n\nThe mining industry has been decimated, and many of the weak hands (BTC and ASICs) have been purged.\n\nSoon we will begin another slow ascent.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'Slow ascent after the bottom' claimed 2022-12-29 at $16,628; low since $16,326 (bottom held) and BTC ascended to $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has three plausible long-run price scenarios: digital gold ($500k–$1m), reserve asset ($5m–$10m), or world currency ($23m+).", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-12-31", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IIICapital/status/1609205640957673472", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I think there are 3 reasonable outcomes for Bitcoin.\n\n1. 🐻 Digital gold ($500k - $1m)\n2. πŸ”’ Reserve asset ($5m - $10m)\n3. πŸ₯‡ World currency ($23m+)", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Long-run scenario ranges starting at $500k (digital gold) up to $23m+; multi-decade horizon not elapsed and high since is only $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will be above $99,000 in 2031.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 99000, "deadline": "2031", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-03", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IIICapital/status/2062152277251514814", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Even if Bitcoin only appreciates to $99,000 by 2031, the resulting capital appreciation would offset more than 100% of the current dividend obligations of both Strategy and Strive.\n\nPersonally, I think BTC will be above $99,000 in 2031.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $57,718 in [2026-06-03..2026-07-01], below the $99,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "The next Bitcoin bull market is on deck and BTC will rise from current levels.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-12-23", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/IIICapital/status/1606295748751917056", "source_type": "x", "quote": "During the monetization phase, massive bull markets inevitably occur in both BTC and mining.\n\nThe next bull market is on deck.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Directional call made in late 2022 that a bull market would follow; Bitcoin did rally significantly in 2023–2024." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin needs to be at least in the low $50,000s post-halving for the mining industry to avoid widespread failures.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-12-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD746_-_Bob_Burnett.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "What would be, like, a bottom-end but healthy price for the mining industry? I'll put it at the low side of it, low 50s. Okay. If we're in the low 50s, I don't think we'll have too many dead bodies.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $38,501 in [2023-12-08..2024-12-08], below the $50,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Older, less efficient Bitcoin miners (110 TH/s or lower) will not survive post-halving unless BTC reaches $100,000.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-12-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD746_-_Bob_Burnett.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Those aren't going to make it. Like, I can tell you, short of, let's say, $100,000 Bitcoin, none of that's going to make it. So, just in crude terms, like, for the audience out there, like, if you have something 110 terahash per second or lower, that's pretty suspect on the back half of the halving, short of some price explosion.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $38,501 in [2023-12-08..2025-12-08], below the $100,000 floor." } ] }, { "id": "joe-carlasare", "name": "Joe Carlasare", "handles": { "x": "@JoeCarlasare", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "attorney", "commentator", "macro" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 69300, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/JoeCarlasare" }, "score": 37.5, "score_adj": 52, "avg_specificity": 25, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 16, "counts": { "correct": 5, "wrong": 9, "partial": 2, "pending": 12 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin price target of $130k by the end of 2025 (a target he says he held 'all year long' since January 2025). He publicly admitted on 2025-12-31 that the call was wrong, as BTC topped at ~$126k.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 130000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-21", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-fundamentals/bitcoin-mastermind-q3-2025-joe-carlasare-jeff-ross-and-american-hodl/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "my target all year long has been 130 and everybody like super bare man", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $116,410 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $130,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin can/will make a new all-time high in 2026 ('this year'); dismisses the idea it can't, calling a new ATH 'electric' and currently 'discounted by the market.'", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": 126296, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-13", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-fundamentals/bitcoin-mastermind-q1-2026-w-jeff-ross-joe-carlasare-and-american-hodl/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think Bitcoin can make a new all time high this year. I don't know why people are convinced it can't.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "New ATH 'this year' (2026); window open until 2026-12-31. ATH (~$126,296) not exceeded β€” high_by_deadline only $97,964 β€” but the year is not over." }, { "claim_text": "Endorsed an 'extended cycle' with Bitcoin all-time highs arriving in the first half of 2026 (Q2 2026); described BTC as structurally undervalued and called it 'an absolutely exciting time to be long risk assets across the board, but especially with Bitcoin.'", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-06-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-22", "specificity": 44, "citation": { "url": "https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-fundamentals/bitcoin-mastermind-q2-2025-joe-carlasare-america-hodl-and-jeff-ross/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I mean, listen, I think this is an absolutely exciting time to be long risk assets across the board, but especially with Bitcoin... [on extended cycle with all-time highs in first half of 2026] Yeah, that sounds about right.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "ATH in first half of 2026 (deadline 2026-06-30, now elapsed); the $126,296 ATH was set before Jan 2026 (post-Jan-13 high was only $97,964) and H1 2026 ended in a crash to $58,161 β€” no new ATH in the window." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will make a new all-time high in 2026, and do it convincingly.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-30", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/mdfyNk27rimbns6HzUxG/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "We're going to sell off 80%. I think Bitcoin can make a new all-time high in 2026, and I think we can do it convincingly. That would probably be one of the most bullish developments, I think, in the history of Bitcoin.", "timestamp": "0:00:42", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "New ATH in 2026 'convincingly'; deadline 2026-12-31 not elapsed. ATH (~$126,296) not yet exceeded (high_by_deadline $97,964) but the window remains open." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will take out the $100K mark in the new year (2026), and once it does can move very quickly to a new all-time high.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-30", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/mdfyNk27rimbns6HzUxG/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think that we were likely to take out that a hundred K mark in the new year. And once you do, I think we can move very quickly to a new all-time high", "timestamp": "0:18:10", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $97,964 in [2025-12-30..2026-07-01], reaching the $100,000 target (within 2.0% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is unlikely to fall to $50,000-$60,000 because there is very little excess or tourist money left in the market.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-01-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/joe-carlasare-new-bitcoin-ath-in-2026-as-economy-runs-hot", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "That's why I'm skeptical of 50, 60,000. So I want to unpack the idea of running this economy hot because I do agree with you that they're going to have to do that.", "timestamp": "0:12:23", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-01-13..2026-07-01] β€” a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will go higher in 2026 and beyond as the four-year cycle theory dies and institutional adoption broadens.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2027", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-13", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/joe-carlasare-new-bitcoin-ath-in-2026-as-economy-runs-hot", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "once Bitcoin truly is understood by the retail masses as sort of an institutional asset, I think it's going to send us much higher this year and in the next year.", "timestamp": "0:02:51", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Window runs to 2027 ('this year and the next year, and beyond'); it has not elapsed. BTC has fallen to $58,161 from $95,384 at make, so 'higher in 2026' is currently failing, but the multi-year window stays open β€” undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Joe Carlasare expects Bitcoin to reach $130k by year-end 2025, a target he has held all year.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 130000, "deadline": "2025", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC3196704531.mp3?updated=1761053899", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "No, my target all year long has been 130. And everybody's like super bare, man. You suck. And you're nailing it.", "timestamp": "0:06:10", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $116,410 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $130,000." }, { "claim_text": "Joe Carlasare expects Bitcoin to surge in November 2025 following resolution of the government shutdown and a G7/Trump summit.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-11-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-22", "specificity": 66, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC3196704531.mp3?updated=1761053899", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I still think we could get a surge. I think once the government shutdown gets cleared up, which it should. And once this whole G-Trump meeting summit gets resolved on November 1st, I expect November to be up-vember in lieu of October not being up-tober.", "timestamp": "0:06:27", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a November 2025 surge; high by the 2025-11-30 deadline reached $116,410 from $107,586 at make β€” November was 'up-vember' as called." }, { "claim_text": "Joe Carlasare believes Bitcoin will not experience the traditional 80% post-cycle decline, representing a new era for the asset.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-18", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC5555512122.mp3?updated=1749010181", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I don't think this is going to be the traditional boom bust 80% decline. I think you'll absolutely see drawdowns. You'll see painful ones for all of us that they'll hold through. But I actually think that we've entered a new era.", "timestamp": "0:08:10", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended 'new era / no 80% decline' floor claim. From the ~$126,296 ATH the drawdown to the $58,000 low is ~54%, not the traditional 80% (~$25k) β€” the claim still holds and no deadline has elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Carlasare signals a bullish outlook, noting bears cannot push Bitcoin meaningfully below $60K despite heavy bearish sentiment.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-26", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JoeCarlasare/status/2070514000723382381", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bear euphoria. capitulation all over the timeline. Folks even calling for Saylor to be in jail. \n\nAnd they can't push bitcoin much under 60k - the same level it was at in February.\n\nBullish. πŸš€", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claimed bears 'can't push bitcoin much under 60k'; within days low fell to $58,056 and current sits at $58,161 β€” BTC was pushed below 60k." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in 2026.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-13", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JoeCarlasare/status/2032452673950175391", "source_type": "x", "quote": "New ATH for Bitcoin in 2026", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "New ATH in 2026 (deadline end-2026, not yet elapsed). High so far is only $82,814 vs the ~$126,296 ATH, and price is back at $58,161 β€” far from a new high but the 2026 window remains open." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is going to ATHs in 2026 while most of the market is positioned bearish.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-16", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JoeCarlasare/status/2033390648171106395", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin is going to ATHs in 2026 while the majority of the market is positioned bearish.\n\nBeautiful. πŸ”₯", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "ATHs in 2026 (deadline end-2026, window open). High to date $82,814 is well below the ~$126,296 ATH and price has dropped to $58,161 β€” undetermined within the remaining window." }, { "claim_text": "The bottom is in and Bitcoin will hit a new ATH in 2026.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-09", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JoeCarlasare/status/2042291424855499214", "source_type": "x", "quote": "One of the largest geopolitical risks in recent years and bitcoin has held firmly above the February lows.\n\nThe bottom is in.\n\nNew ATH in 2026.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'The bottom is in' β€” but BTC subsequently fell to a $58,000 low (well below the $71,798 make price), so the bottom was not in; the paired new-ATH-in-2026 hope is contradicted by the crash." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reclaim its 200-day moving average at approximately $83,400.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 83400, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-05-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JoeCarlasare/status/2051654210337353891", "source_type": "x", "quote": "In 2021-2022, Bitcoin lost the 200 day moving average and never recovered it until the bottom was in. \n\nIn Nov of 2025, Bitcoin lost its 200 day moving average. It will reclaim it at $83,400.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-05-05..2026-07-01], reaching the $83,400 target (within 0.7% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will blow through the 200-day moving average, ending four-year cycle narratives.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-26", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JoeCarlasare/status/2059272580956098826", "source_type": "x", "quote": "When we finally blow through the 200 MA, we can finally put this \"historically\" / \"four year cycle bro\" nonsense to bed. \n\nComing soon 🍿", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted blowing through the 200MA 'coming soon'; instead BTC rolled over from $75,826 to the $58,161 area, dropping further below the 200MA rather than breaking up over it." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will set a new all-time high in 2026.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-14", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JoeCarlasare/status/2022731873504666061", "source_type": "x", "quote": "New ATH for Bitcoin in 2026", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "New ATH in 2026 (deadline end-2026, window open). High so far $82,814 vs ~$126,296 ATH; price now $58,161 β€” far off but the 2026 window has not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will make a new all-time high in 2026.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-15", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JoeCarlasare/status/2022918411076989148", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I posted earlier about an ATH in Bitcoin in 2026.\n\nI’ve gotten 40+ DMs telling me some variation of an expression that I’m an idiot. \n\nInterpret that however you want.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "New ATH in 2026 (deadline end-2026, window open). Peak to date $82,814 is below the ~$126,296 ATH and price sits at $58,161 β€” undetermined within the remaining window." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will set a new all-time high in 2026.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-06", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JoeCarlasare/status/2019782514596880408", "source_type": "x", "quote": "New ATH on Bitcoin in 2026", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "New ATH in 2026 (deadline end-2026, window open). High since make is $82,814, far below the ~$126,296 ATH, with price back at $58,161 β€” open and undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "The Nov 21, 2025 bottom holds and Bitcoin makes new all-time highs in 2026.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-30", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JoeCarlasare/status/2017034812251414747", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Still looking like the November 21, 2025 bottom on BTC is going to hold. πŸ”₯ \n\nJust a sloppy bottom. New ATHs in 2026", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claimed the Nov 21, 2025 bottom would hold; BTC has since fallen to a $58,000 low, far below the $84,111 make price β€” the November 2025 bottom did not hold." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will recover the $100k level much faster than people expect.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-01-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JoeCarlasare/status/2007976831077769333", "source_type": "x", "quote": "100k Bitcoin will be back a lot faster than people expect", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $97,964 in [2026-01-05..2026-07-01], reaching the $100,000 target (within 2.0% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will make a new all-time high in 2026.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-13", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JoeCarlasare/status/2011200138258366879", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Highest price on bitcoin since mid November. Almost 60 days since the bottom.\n\nNew ATH in 2026 coming", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Calls a new ATH (above ~$126k) in 2026; high by deadline so far only $97,964 and price is back at $58,161, but the 2026 window runs through year-end and hasn't elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will trade above $130,000 in 2026.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 130000, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-31", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JoeCarlasare/status/2006197642238337373", "source_type": "x", "quote": "My target since January was 130k by the end of the year. We won’t hit that. And we only made it to 126k. Close, but no cigar.\n\nSo I fully admit I was wrong... However, nothing has changed my view that we will go above 130k next", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-12-31); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The ~$80k area marks the cycle bottom for Bitcoin.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2025-12-19", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JoeCarlasare/status/2002020289589436451", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin has been in the same range after bottoming for a month while folks are getting liquidated with de gen positions every 12 hours.\n\nThe longer we hold here, the more like the 80k was the bottom.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-12-19..2026-07-01], below the $80,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will make new all-time highs after the Nov 21, 2025 bottom.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-08", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JoeCarlasare/status/1997861422647390666", "source_type": "x", "quote": ".@JamesWynnReal has been bearish since we bottomed on 11-21-25. \n\nAll we are doing is putting in higher highs and higher lows while he’s missed an 11k move off the bottom. New ATHs coming.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claimed higher highs/higher lows and 'new ATHs coming' from the 11-21-25 bottom; instead high only reached $97,964 (below ~$126k ATH) and structure broke down, crashing to $58,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's move back over $100k will be swift.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2025-11-19", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JoeCarlasare/status/1991282921005834471", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The move back over 100k will be swift \n\nNo mercy for those who fell for the bear trap and are offsides \n\nthoughts and prayers", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $97,964 in [2025-11-19..2026-07-01], reaching the $100,000 target (within 2.0% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "The four-year halving boom-bust Bitcoin cycle is dead/a meme; Bitcoin will track the broader risk-asset and macro regime rather than a predictable four-year cycle.", "claim_type": "cycle", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-30", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/Vo6THPu9X5RZBVkVUxAj/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "this sort of predictable, like four year boom bust cycle that we have to go on that's coincident with the halving. I think that's kind of always been sort of more of a meme than anything else.", "timestamp": "0:07:27", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Forward-looking structural call that the predictable 4-year cycle no longer governs price. As of 2026-06-20 BTC is in a drawdown (low $59,073 on 2026-06-05, ~$63,556 today) after ATH $126,296 on 2025-10-06; whether this constitutes a classic post-halving cycle top/bust vs. macro-driven move is not yet resolvable. PENDING." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's bottom is already in and a major drawdown to $50,000-$60,000 is unlikely given the lack of excess in the market.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/joe-carlasare-new-bitcoin-ath-in-2026-as-economy-runs-hot", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "you think the bottom's in. I do. Yeah. I mean, so the big thing you got to think about markets is that moves are relative, and they're also very much mean reverting.", "timestamp": "0:09:45", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-01-13..2026-07-01] β€” a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor." } ] }, { "id": "joe-consorti", "name": "Joe Consorti", "handles": { "x": "@JoeConsorti", "nostr": null, "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/@JoeConsorti", "web": "https://www.joeconsorti.com/" }, "category": [ "analyst", "macro", "liquidity", "newsletter" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 61200, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/joeconsorti?lang=en" }, "score": 66.7, "score_adj": 87.2, "avg_specificity": 31, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 9, "counts": { "correct": 5, "wrong": 2, "partial": 2, "pending": 6 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Made the case for $100,000 bitcoin in 2024, arguing it was 'not as absurd as it first sounds' and only ~2x from the price at the time.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-02-13", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/100k-bitcoin-is-closer-than-you-think", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "After a year of tumult followed by a year of choppy upward price action, we stand before you after a multi-month rally and present our case for why $100,000 bitcoin in 2024 is not as absurd as it first sounds. ... $100k Bitcoin Is Closer Than You Think. ... Only 2x from here now.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2024-02-13..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Argued bitcoin was 'primed to explode' at the apex of a multi-month consolidation wedge and positioned to move higher, 'past new all-time highs and above $80,000,' if the bull market had begun.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-06-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/bitcoin-is-raring-to-breakout", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "move higher, past new all-time highs and above $80,000", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted move past new ATHs and above $80k from $70,542; BTC rallied to $126,296, clearing both." }, { "claim_text": "Conditional technical call: reclaiming $83,000 would push BTC back above both its 200-day moving average and the ETF average cost basis, and surpassing that level could set the stage for a move toward $93,000.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 93000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-10", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://tradersunion.com/news/market-voices/show/2027778-bitcoin-200dma-rally/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Consorti adds that reclaiming $83,000 would push Bitcoin back above both the 200-day moving average and the ETF average cost basis. He suggests that surpassing this level could set the stage for a move toward $93,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Conditional reclaim of $83k never triggered (high since made only $82,450); BTC instead fell to $58,000, far from the $93k target." }, { "claim_text": "Twelve-month base case: Bitcoin is meaningfully above where it sits now; the open question is only whether there is a 'flush' first.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2027-06-03", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-03", "specificity": 46, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tftc.io/joe-consorti-print-money-buy-bitcoin/", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "Twelve months out, his base case is that Bitcoin is meaningfully above where it sits now. The open question, in his telling, is only whether we get a flush first.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "12-month base case (made $64,040, deadline 2027-06-03) still open; currently $58,161, high $67,416 β€” undetermined with window not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "This is a really great entry point for asset prices including Bitcoin; Joe sees the current sell-off as a major mispricing (though he does not call it the absolute bottom).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-09", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/m2VqJUhKXAkCwwgJ4Q5Q/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And for me, I think that's a big mispricing. And so that's why I think this is a really great entry point. Not to say that this is the bottom again, but I think this is a really great entry point for asset prices", "timestamp": "0:07:18", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Entry at $70,102 rallied to $82,814 (~+18%, a profitable window) but is now underwater at $58,161; he explicitly disclaimed calling the bottom." }, { "claim_text": "Over the next several months, as Kevin Warsh approaches becoming Fed chair and the dollar weakens, all beaten-down risk assets including Bitcoin will begin a bottoming-out process.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-09", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/m2VqJUhKXAkCwwgJ4Q5Q/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "So to me, it's a major mispricing. I think the dollar goes weaker over the next several months. I think as we approach Warsh actually becoming Fed chair, you're going to start to see some of that weakness. And I think you're going to start to see a bottoming out process in all risk assets that have done poorly, software stocks, Bitcoin included, as we approach that date", "timestamp": "0:08:41", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a bottoming-out process over the next several months from Feb 2026; instead BTC made new lows, falling from $70,102 to $58,000 by the window's end." }, { "claim_text": "Joe assigns a pretty high probability to Bitcoin getting close to or making new all-time highs in 2026 (which would break the four-year-cycle narrative).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-09", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/m2VqJUhKXAkCwwgJ4Q5Q/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Yeah, I mean, it'll be interesting what happens this year, because if Bitcoin, you know rallies from here has a good year maybe gets close to all-time highs on new all-time highs in 26 then that that does break this this cycle idea i think um i would still put that at a pretty high probability", "timestamp": "0:22:42", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "High probability of near/new ATHs by 2026-12-31; high by deadline so far $82,814 (far from ~$126k ATH), but the year-end window is still open." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has found its bottom; 60K was the cycle bottom.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2026-05-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/RLHc8rMLCh1e4uOCUnMC/files/VIDEO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I certainly think so. Right. Like I've spoken about this a few times, but the balance of risks for me are more so on the side of Bitcoin has found its bottom. Whether or not that means we continue going lower remains to be seen. I think 60K was the cycle bottom. And the", "timestamp": "0:24:56", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-05-27..2026-07-01] β€” a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will find its bottom first (around $60,000) and then begin moving higher ahead of equities; this is a great entry point that buyers will look back on favorably.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-02-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/m2VqJUhKXAkCwwgJ4Q5Q/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitcoin as it historically has done it's going to find its bottom first and then begin moving higher first it might seem scary but ultimately you're going to look back on this time 10 years down the line five years down the line next cycle and say man I wish I had bought around that $60,000", "timestamp": "0:00:25", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-02-09..2026-07-01], reaching the $60,000 downside target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is about to drop below $70,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 70000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JoeConsorti/status/2061635193723580839", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin is about to go below $70,000 again.\n\nEveryone is panicking.\n\nBe like Lieutenant Dan. Act like you've been here before.\n\nStay frosty 🫑", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $71,316 in [2026-06-02..2026-07-01], reaching the $70,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin wants to reach $80,000 and may get there that same night.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": "2026-04-27", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-27", "specificity": 100, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JoeConsorti/status/2048568436008120334", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin wants $80,000 badly.\n\nWe may get it tonight.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $79,496 in [2026-04-27..2026-04-27], reaching the $80,000 target (within 0.6% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin reclaims $83k it will then rally toward $93k.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 93000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-05-10", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JoeConsorti/status/2053615619862298903", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Reclaiming $83k would put us back above the 200DMA and the ETF average cost basis.\n\nThen it's off to the races to $93k... we'll see 🫑", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,450 since 2026-05-10); 2027-02-10 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will bottom in the low 50s to high 40s this cycle rather than falling all the way to 40k.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-07-01", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/4MynktGTCkXDsBKG9S1K/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I'd like to revise up my estimate from the last video. I think we're probably going to bottom in the low 50s, high 40s, rather than visiting all the way down to 40k.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Resolves against whether BTC's cycle low prints in the roughly $45k-$53k band versus reaching ~$40k or holding above the low 50s." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will find its final cycle low around October or November 2026.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-11-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-07-01", "specificity": 50, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/4MynktGTCkXDsBKG9S1K/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I tend to think that Bitcoin will probably find its final low around October or November.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Resolves against whether BTC's lowest price of the cycle occurs in Oct-Nov 2026 versus earlier or later." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will ascend higher from the final low through year-end, with Q1 next year being the first breakout quarter of the next bull market.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2027", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-07-01", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/4MynktGTCkXDsBKG9S1K/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "then begin ascending higher through the end of the year into January and Q1 of next year is really going to be the first breakout quarter, in my mind, for the next Bitcoin bull market.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Resolves against whether BTC rises off its late-2026 low through year-end and breaks out to the upside in Q1 2027." } ] }, { "id": "john-bollinger", "name": "John Bollinger", "handles": { "x": "@bbands", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.bollingerbands.com" }, "category": [ "technical-analyst", "trader" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 285000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/bbands" }, "score": 71.4, "score_adj": 100, "avg_specificity": 7, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 7, "counts": { "correct": 5, "wrong": 2, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Nice little W pattern on the weekly BTCUSD chart. I drew a regression channel to highlight the flag that is forming. Bullish setup, Awaiting confirmation.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-09-20", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/legendary-trader-john-bollinger-breaks-silence-on-bitcoin-btc-price-action-details", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Nice little W pattern on the weekly BTCUSD chart. I drew a regression channel to highlight the flag that is forming. Bullish setup, Awaiting confirmation.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bullish W/flag setup at $63,211; BTC subsequently rallied to $126,296, confirming the bullish thesis." }, { "claim_text": "Saw a couple of headlines today about #bitcoin being in a bear market. NOT SO FAST! Wait for a sustainable bottom to appear, then take the other side of the trade.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-02-25", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/not-so-fast-john-bollinger-reacts-to-bitcoin-bear-market-talk", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Saw a couple of headlines today about #bitcoin being in a bear market. NO SO FAST! Wait for a sustainable bottom to appear, then take the other side of the trade.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Dismissed the bear-market headlines at $88,584 and said to fade them; BTC went on to new ATHs at $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "Classic Bollinger Band W bottom setting up in $BTCUSD. Still needs confirmation.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-04-10", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/legendary-trader-bollinger-issues-bitcoin-bottom-alert", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Classic Bollinger Band W bottom setting up in $BTCUSD. Still needs confirmation.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called a W bottom setting up at $79,552; the bottom confirmed and BTC rallied to $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "A 'Three Pushes to a High' Bollinger Band pattern marked the end of this rally phase for $BTCUSD (three upper-band pushes at ~$93.8k, ~$104k and the ~$111.8k ATH).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-06-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coingape.com/markets/bitcoin-price-crash-likely-as-bollinger-band-creator-signals-end-of-rally-phase/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "'Three Pushes to a High' Bollinger Band Pattern marked the end of this rally phase for $BTCUSD", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called the ~$111.8k ATH (made $104,753) the end of the rally, but BTC pushed higher to $126,296 afterward β€” the rally did not end there." }, { "claim_text": "Near perfect base for BTCUSD with a Bollinger Band Squeeze and breakout. First upside target 100,000, second ~107,000, third ??? If we fail here it is back into the trenches.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-01-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/john-bollinger-bitcoin-bb-squeeze-breakout-107000/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Near perfect base for BTCUSD with a Bollinger Band Squeeze and breakout. First upside target 100,000, second ~107,000, third ??? ... If we fail here it is back into the trenches.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $97,964 in [2026-01-05..2026-07-01], reaching the $100,000 target (within 2.0% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "Yesterday our trend model for Bitcoin turned positive and we took a position in our Tactica program, which is now fully invested. (Bollinger Bands creator calls a new Bitcoin bull market.)", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-06", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/fully-invested-bollinger-bands-creator-officially-calls-a-new-bitcoin-bull-market/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Yesterday our trend model for Bitcoin turned positive and we took a position in our Tactica program, which is now fully invested.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called a new bull market at $81,438; BTC barely ticked to $82,814 then crashed to $58,161 β€” no bull market." }, { "claim_text": "BTC has broken out of a Bollinger Band Squeeze with upside targets at $100,000 and ~$107,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-01-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/bbands/status/2008252467059060962", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Near perfect base for $BTCUSD with a Bollinger Band Squeeze and breakout. First upside target 100,000, second ~107,000, third ???\nIf we fail here it is back into the trenches.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $97,964 in [2026-01-05..2026-07-01], reaching the $100,000 target (within 2.0% β€” near-miss counted)." } ] }, { "id": "john-pompliano", "name": "John Pompliano", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 25, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 1, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has at least short-term bottomed, having hit its max drawdown period.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-25", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Has-Bitcoin-Finally-Bottomed---Anthony--John-Pompliano-e3bfg0i", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Do I think that we've bottomed at least in the short term? Yes. I do think that Bitcoin, you know, kind of hit this max drawdown period", "timestamp": "0:03:59", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Short-term bottom claim at $87,325: did bounce to $97,964 near-term, but later broke far below to $58,000." }, { "claim_text": "John Pompliano believes the current Bitcoin bull market is just getting started and has significantly more upside ahead.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-07", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/How-to-Prepare-for-the-Next-Bitcoin-Bull-Market--Anthony--John-Pompliano-e397ic8", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think that this bull market, it's just warming up, baby. We're on the on-deck circle.", "timestamp": "0:05:30", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bull 'just warming up' at $121,394; topped at $125,226 then crashed to $58,161 β€” no significant further upside." }, { "claim_text": "John Pompliano predicts Bitcoin will eventually see daily price moves of $15,000 to $20,000 as the asset grows larger, though the percentage move will remain small (around 1%).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-14", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Bitcoins-10K-Candles-Are-Coming--Get-Ready--Anthony--John-Pompliano-e39hhkb", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "There will be a day where Bitcoin moves $15,000 to $20,000 a day, both directions. But it's going to be 1% move, right?", "timestamp": "0:10:14", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claim commits to Bitcoin reaching a price level high enough that a 1% daily move equals $15,000–$20,000 (implying a Bitcoin price of $1.5M–$2M); resolves true if Bitcoin ever sustains that price range." } ] }, { "id": "jordi-visser", "name": "Jordi Visser", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 5.6, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 10, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 9, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 8, "partial": 1, "pending": 3 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "When Bitcoin's next uptrend begins, it will be a particularly significant and important move.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-08", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Will-Bitcoin-Keep-Crashing----Anthony-Pompliano-e3kgtce", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I'll still stick with the, the, the main thing I said, which is we right now have three month rates that are below inflation. Just wait for the next trend higher in Bitcoin. And I think this will be the one that gets very important.", "timestamp": "0:06:41", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a significant next uptrend from $63,063; only reached $67,264 then fell to $58,161." }, { "claim_text": "Jordi Visser is actively buying Bitcoin down to $100k and has bids placed below $100k, treating any dip toward that level as a buying opportunity.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2025-10-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Bitcoin-Crashed-Why-Im-Still-Buying--Jordi-Visser-e39m9mu", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I'm buying Bitcoin all the way down to 100. I have bids under 100.", "timestamp": "0:05:59", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-10-18..2026-07-01], below the $100,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Jordi Visser believes Bitcoin will break back through all-time highs, at which point the four-year cycle narrative will be discredited and Bitcoin will continue higher without a cyclical ceiling.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-18", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Bitcoin-Crashed-Why-Im-Still-Buying--Jordi-Visser-e39m9mu", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "The reason I'm buying Bitcoin is because I think when we get through the all-time highs again and basically get rid of this four-year cycle belief, now there's no imaginary place for people to ever again care about.", "timestamp": "0:09:48", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Never broke ATH (high $116,410 < prior ~$126k) and crashed to $58,000; four-year cycle not discredited." }, { "claim_text": "Jordi Visser predicts Bitcoin will follow a pattern similar to NVIDIA β€” experiencing multiple 20%-plus corrections before ultimately continuing to new all-time highs, driven by the AI trade.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-27", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Bitcoin--AI-The-Final-Push-Before-the-Biggest-Bull-Run-Yet---Jordi-Visser-e38ordb", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "NVIDIA is up over 1,000% since ChatGPT's launch... you've had five corrections of 20% or more in NVIDIA before it went back up to all-time highs. Bitcoin's going to be the same thing.", "timestamp": "0:06:19", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Did make new ATH at $126,296 after the call, but the recover-to-new-highs pattern failed β€” ~54% crash to $58,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach a $15 trillion market cap, and it will happen in much less time than it took the MAG-7 to get there.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-06", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Why-Bitcoin-Will-Hit-150-000-Sooner-Than-You-Think--Jordi-Visser-e37s9fm", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "So Bitcoin's going to get to $15 trillion. It's going to happen. And I believe it's going to happen in much less time. The reason is because of artificial intelligence.", "timestamp": "0:02:09", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$15T cap (~$750k/BTC) needed; BTC instead crashed from $110,213 to $58,000." }, { "claim_text": "Jordi Visser's consistent price target for Bitcoin this cycle is $150,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2025-09-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Why-Bitcoin-Will-Hit-150-000-Sooner-Than-You-Think--Jordi-Visser-e37s9fm", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Remember, I have consistently thought $150,000, mainly because everyone else was saying $250,000, $300,000, $500,000, you know, these huge numbers.", "timestamp": "0:18:19", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-09-06); 2028-03-06 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin reaching $1 million will happen, but not in the next cycle.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2025-09-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Why-Bitcoin-Will-Hit-150-000-Sooner-Than-You-Think--Jordi-Visser-e37s9fm", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And if you start to compound this out, it actually means that like Bitcoin a million, it happens. It just doesn't happen in, you know, the next cycle.", "timestamp": "0:19:27", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-09-06); 2030-09-06 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin doubling from ~$95K–$100K to $200K by end of 2025 is very unlikely.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-06", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Why-Bitcoin-Will-Hit-150-000-Sooner-Than-You-Think--Jordi-Visser-e37s9fm", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Since for us, double from 100 to, or 95 to 200 by the end of the year is very unlikely, at least where it is now and where the implied vol is. So probabilistically, it's not there.", "timestamp": "0:20:24", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "A violent short squeeze in Bitcoin has not happened yet during this institutional buying cycle and will occur when Bitcoin breaks higher.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-09", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/9-TRILLION-401k-Bomb-About-To-Hit-Bitcoin--Jordi-Visser-e36l358", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think the major issue is going to come that people are forgetting when you're selling upside volatility in an asset that actually has a finite amount. If you start to break higher and people need to go out and cover those shorts, we haven't had a short squeeze yet in this while the institutional buying has been happening.", "timestamp": "0:10:03", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Broke higher to $126,296 but no violent short squeeze; reversed and crashed to $58,000." }, { "claim_text": "Once Ethereum breaks through $4,000, Bitcoin will race higher alongside it; the current setup is building toward a FOMO-driven avalanche of buying.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-09", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/9-TRILLION-401k-Bomb-About-To-Hit-Bitcoin--Jordi-Visser-e36l358", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I believe once Ethereum gets through 4000, Bitcoin will race with it and they will both...I think we're getting closer and closer in that. And that's why this whole conversation about volatility compression, I think this is all setting up to bringing in the avalanche where people are going to be chasing and there's going to be FOMO.", "timestamp": "0:11:03", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "No FOMO avalanche; BTC topped at $126,296 then collapsed to $58,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will keep rising from a roughly $2 trillion asset toward $50 trillion or $100 trillion and won't stop going up.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-15", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/5m85Jlh29wdjbHGgzdXY/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "the advantage for them is that Bitcoin is a $2 trillion asset going to $50 trillion, $100 trillion. I don't know what the endgame is, but it's not going to stop going up.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'Won't stop going up' at $95,545; reached only $97,964 then crashed to $58,161." }, { "claim_text": "Next year will be a big year for Bitcoin.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-15", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/5m85Jlh29wdjbHGgzdXY/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I fully expect that next year is going to be a big year for not only crypto, but through Bitcoin.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Deadline is full-year 2026 (not elapsed); first half weak ($95,545β†’$58,161) but window still open." } ] }, { "id": "josh-mendel", "name": "Josh Mendel", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will run to $444,000 this cycle after confirming $84,000 as a local bottom.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 444000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-03-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/news-block-gold-breaks-3k-as-global-uncertainty-surges-bitcoin-securities-boom-eu-eyes-savings-seizures-shocking-444k-btc-prediction", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Josh publicly said that if his prediction came true, $84,000 would mark a local bottom, and Bitcoin would then run the table to $444,000 this cycle.", "timestamp": "0:08:50", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-03-18); 2028-03-18 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "josh-westernbtc", "name": "Josh", "handles": { "x": "", "nostr": "josh@westernbtc.com", "youtube": null, "web": "westernbtc.com" }, "category": [ "bitcoiner", "builder", "nostr" ], "followers": { "platform": "nostr", "count": 0, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://njump.me/npub1pc57ls4rad5kvsp733suhzl2d4u9y7h4upt952a2pucnalc59teq33dmza" }, "score": 100, "score_adj": 100, "avg_specificity": 12, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 4, "counts": { "correct": 4, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 4 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "$53k is the bottom", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 53000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-02-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://njump.me/note198jt3mm73knmags6q8lz8h7jqlmfqxeens9pd7tfct5xweuvhaxqhulsk4", "source_type": "nostr", "quote": "$53k is the bottom", "timestamp": "2026-02-11T15:24:10Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $53,000 (through 2026-07-01)." }, { "claim_text": "$60k was not the bottom.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://njump.me/note1770r5h6yx8c0hcvewuwxd9x8s0zaczsvjfk7hy3c269m97lmj0ns009tul", "source_type": "nostr", "quote": "$60k was not the bottom.", "timestamp": "2026-03-18T12:26:08Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'$60k was not the bottom' β€” BTC subsequently fell to $58,000, below $60k, confirming it wasn't the bottom." }, { "claim_text": "Something catastrophic is coming. We'll see who's swimming naked soon. PSA: the bear market is not over.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-18", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://njump.me/note1htdawt7x52hmmd0ga2rfx4up7e9y4awdrjhr4ksw5n8zew8uqaaqgmc8px", "source_type": "nostr", "quote": "Something catastrophic is coming. We'll see who's swimming naked soon. PSA: the bear market is not over.", "timestamp": "2026-04-18T16:54:36Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bear continued from $75,737 spot down to $58,161 current (low $58,000) β€” catastrophic downside materialized." }, { "claim_text": "The bear market is not over. I'll be selling half my bitcoin at $82k.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 82000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://njump.me/note1249sp53rhj2nvhhmhx7rrrg3zdsgfffqhrpur5jec5wd5c4he5eqewfmhf", "source_type": "nostr", "quote": "The bear market is not over. I'll be selling half my bitcoin at $82k.", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T02:40:46Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$82k was tagged (high $82,814) and the bear thesis held as BTC then fell from $78,209 to $58,161." }, { "claim_text": "Can we stop pretending normal 4 year cycles with bull and bear markets are over yet?", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-27", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://njump.me/note15ecq3d36dkdpgpnymtazdj0rq02fle4qu3rvm54je3agshqmdcnqvum08h", "source_type": "nostr", "quote": "Can we stop pretending normal 4 year cycles with bull and bear markets are over yet?", "timestamp": "2026-03-27T12:09:24Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Normal cycle/bear persisted β€” BTC fell from $66,353 to $58,161, validating that bull/bear cycles are not dead." }, { "claim_text": "You know what's not interesting about this bear market? This bear market. It's literally like every other one. Stop believing that this time is different. We bottom in Q4.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-02", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://njump.me/note1aycxwma47y8dkkg6vleuexgt5latuash03w8wdmfwe2wg84macpquc0y9z", "source_type": "nostr", "quote": "You know what's not interesting about this bear market? This bear market. It's literally like every other one. Stop believing that this time is different. We bottom in Q4.", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T23:59:39Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Q4 2026 bottom call; window (deadline 2026-12-31) has not elapsed as of 2026-06-30, outcome undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "I don't know what price, but I predict we will bottom Q4 like every other bear market.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-04", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://njump.me/note1rtanj2mnxnzhqtvp3ufyggatnykne53trekrp67vgmhj837hxd8qsxa6fc", "source_type": "nostr", "quote": "I don't know what price, but I predict we will bottom Q4 like every other bear market.", "timestamp": "2026-06-04T10:38:34Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Q4 2026 bottom call; window (deadline 2026-12-31) has not elapsed as of 2026-06-30, outcome undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Not that anyone cares, but I'm still on the sidelines. This has been, and I predict will be, like every other bear market and cycle. Most likely, we bottom in Q4.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-06", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://njump.me/note19hckrpa4nn44w8mm2nfdm6354wyzhxr0ed4pgqlf8qu7fxfap7zsqkqsw7", "source_type": "nostr", "quote": "Not that anyone cares, but I'm still on the sidelines. This has been, and I predict will be, like every other bear market and cycle. Most likely, we bottom in Q4.", "timestamp": "2026-06-06T13:29:04Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Q4 2026 bottom call; window (deadline 2026-12-31) has not elapsed as of 2026-06-30, outcome undetermined." } ] }, { "id": "jpmorgan-analysts", "name": "JPMorgan analysts", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 100, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "JPMorgan analysts projected Bitcoin could reach $170,000 per coin over the next 6 to 12 months based on volatility-adjusted comparisons to gold.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 170000, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-10", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/news-block-trump-floats-2000-tariff-dividend-50-year-mortgage-proposal-jpmorgan-predicts-170k-bitcoin-strategy-launches-stre", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "this past week, JPMorgan analysts projected Bitcoin could reach $170,000 per coin over the next 6 to 12 months based on volatility-adjusted comparisons to gold.", "timestamp": "0:08:06", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $107,482 since 2025-11-10); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "JP Morgan analysts said Bitcoin has more upside than gold for the second half of the year.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-19", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/news-block-institutions-pivot-to-bitcoin-as-us-credit-outlook-turns-negative-gold-demand-surges-but-bitcoin-has-more-upside", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Even JP Morgan analysts recently said that Bitcoin has more upside than gold for the second h[alf of the year].", "timestamp": "0:06:04", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "2H-2025 upside call: BTC rallied from $105,616 to a $126,296 high by the 2025 deadline." }, { "claim_text": "JPMorgan said Bitcoin is undervalued with a fair value price of approximately $165,000 per coin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 165000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/mark-moss-reverse-crash-roadmap-retire-off-bitcoin-as-it-grows-to-1-millioncoin", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "We had JP Morgan saying that Bitcoin's actually undervalued, that the fair value price is about $165,000 per Bitcoin.", "timestamp": "0:01:52", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $116,410 since 2025-10-14); 2026-10-14 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "julian-brigden", "name": "Julian Brigden", "handles": { "x": "@JulianMI2", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://mi2partners.com/team-julian/" }, "category": [ "macro-strategist", "analyst" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 0, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/JulianMI2" }, "score": 66.7, "score_adj": 50, "avg_specificity": 8, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 3, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 0, "partial": 2, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "On Bitcoin: 'With rampant euphoria and extreme positioning, I think the risk is we in the banana skin zone. #bitcoin looks especially extended relative to other risk assets and recently that hasn't ended well.' A near-term bearish/caution call on BTC.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-13", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.linkedin.com/posts/julian-brigden-150b2114_bitcoin-activity-7284582096390500352-bPQH", "source_type": "x", "quote": "With rampant euphoria and extreme positioning, I think the risk is we in the banana skin zone. #bitcoin looks especially extended relative to other risk assets and recently that hasn't ended well.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Near-term caution at $94,506, but BTC first rallied ~34% to $126,296 before eventually crashing to $58,161 β€” wrong near-term, right eventually." }, { "claim_text": "MSTR's premium 'was always insanity' and should revert to the long-term average of 1.2x; questions whether the excess is 'idiosyncratic or emblematic of excessive euphoria, not just in #bitcoin but across all markets,' with MSTR threatening the trendline of the whole advance. A bearish/caution call on the bitcoin-linked euphoria complex.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-05", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.linkedin.com/posts/julian-brigden-150b2114_strategy-mstr-bitcoin-activity-7391829621153054720-3f4-", "source_type": "x", "quote": "paying a 5x premium was always insanity, and my view is that we should head back to the long-term average of 1.2 ... is MSTR just idiosyncratic or emblematic of excessive euphoria, not just in #bitcoin but across all markets?", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Euphoria/caution call at $103,869 (high only $107,482); BTC then crashed ~44% to $58,161." }, { "claim_text": "Breaking Bitcoin's yellow support line opens up a move to $72K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 72000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2025-04-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JulianMI2/status/1908992249033011533", "source_type": "x", "quote": "With talk of a 1987 #BlackMonday style drop, it is worth watching #XBT #Bitcoin as a canary in the coalmine. On the Asian open, we have broken the yellow support line, which opens up a move to $72k", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $74,421 by the 2026-01-06 horizon β€” within 3.4% of the $72,000 target but not reached." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is falling and could reach $40K, implying further downside from current levels.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 40000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2025-11-20", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/JulianMI2/status/1991549786596733429", "source_type": "x", "quote": "While some investors hailed Saylor as a visionary, my view was that he was a snake oil salesman. Well, price is proving to be the arbitrator. #MSTR has crashed through its trendline, and with #Bitcoin falling, it's tough to pick a target. My guess is $50. 1.2 x #XBT at $40k.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2025-11-20); 2026-08-20 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "junseth", "name": "Junseth", "handles": { "x": "@Junseth", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://junseth.com/" }, "category": [ "podcaster", "commentator", "bitcoin-og", "satirist" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 0, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/junseth" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [] }, { "id": "jurrien-timmer", "name": "Jurrien Timmer", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 0, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer suggested Bitcoin may start to pick up the slack after gold's recent outperformance, implying Bitcoin is set to outperform going forward.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-10", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/news-block-trump-floats-2000-tariff-dividend-50-year-mortgage-proposal-jpmorgan-predicts-170k-bitcoin-strategy-launches-stre", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Fidelity's director of Global Macro, Urien Timmer, who recently suggested that after gold's latest outperformance, Bitcoin may start to, quote, pick up the slack here.", "timestamp": "0:08:06", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC did not 'pick up the slack' β€” from $105,979 it barely ticked to $107,482 then crashed ~45% to $58,161." } ] }, { "id": "kevin-o-leary", "name": "Kevin O'Leary", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 100, "score_adj": 100, "avg_specificity": 24, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "If institutions allocate just 1% to Bitcoin, that represents a trillion dollars of buying pressure, which would push Bitcoin to $1 million per coin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2021-09-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD398_-_Kevin_OLeary_-_Full.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "if you were able to get the institutions just a 1% allocation, that's a trillion dollars worth of buying. So now you're talking about a million dollar Bitcoin. Smell the fucking roses. The opportunity's there.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2021-09-16); 2027-09-16 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin needs to solve ESG compliance before it can reach $100,000–$250,000, as institutional money won't flow in until then.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-09-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD398_-_Kevin_OLeary_-_Full.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "if we solve this in the Bitcoin asset community, whatever you want to call it, you're going to see a trillion dollars worth of fiat currencies going to Bitcoin as an asset, just like real estate. And I think you want to talk about $100,000, $200,000, $250,000 coin price, it has to solve this problem. It won't get there until then.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$100k–$250k band reached β€” BTC rose from $47,753 into the band, hitting a $126,296 high." } ] }, { "id": "kevin-wadsworth", "name": "Kevin Wadsworth", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin should bottom in Q3 or Q4 of 2026, likely around $40,000 if it repeats the prior cycle's ~70% drawdown.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 40000, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-10", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/northstar-charts-bitcoin-to-go-lower-40k-and-capital-rotation-event-explained", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "If Bitcoin repeats previous behavior, Bitcoin should probably bottom in Q3 or Q4 of this year. If it falls over 70% like it did last time, then it's probably going to be in the region of 40,000, could be a little bit above, could be a little bit below.", "timestamp": "0:00:00", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-02-10); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "ki-young-ju", "name": "Ki Young Ju", "handles": { "x": "@ki_young_ju", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://cryptoquant.com" }, "category": [ "on-chain analyst", "exchange/data-company executive" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 421500, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/ki_young_ju" }, "score": 40, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 9, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 5, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 2, "partial": 2, "pending": 3 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Based on cumulative capital flowing into the Bitcoin market, the current upper limit (price ceiling) appears to be $135,000, with a 2024 price target of $112,000. 'Stay long-term bullish, but be cautious with leverage if you're a trader.'", "claim_type": "ceiling", "threshold_usd": 135000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2024-11-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:dfefa6a45094b:0-current-bitcoin-price-ceiling-projected-at-135k-ki-young-ju/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Please note that this doesn't mean we aren't getting corrections. As I mentioned earlier, the futures perp market is overleveraged. Stay long-term bullish, but be cautious with leverage if you're a trader.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was $126,296, stayed at/below $135,000 (through 2026-07-01)." }, { "claim_text": "This Bitcoin bull cycle might turn out to be the longest ever. New liquidity sources are steadily fueling the market, and more are waiting to be unlocked.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-07", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://bitbo.io/news/cryptoquant-ceo-longest-bull-market/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "This Bitcoin bull cycle might turn out to be the longest ever. New liquidity sources are steadily fueling the market, and more are waiting to be unlocked.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Not the longest-ever bull cycle β€” BTC topped at $126,296 and rolled into a bear, down to $58,161 (-40% from the $96,942 call)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action. The on-chain realized cap has stalled, signaling no fresh capital inflows; without new liquidity to offset heavy selling, this is a bearish signal.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-03-17", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-03-17", "specificity": 46, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/03/18/cryptoquant-s-ki-young-ju-says-btc-bull-market-cycle-is-over", "source_type": "article", "quote": "#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called bull cycle over / 6-12mo bearish on 2025-03-17 at $84,011, but BTC rallied to a fresh ATH of $126,296 within the window (he himself recanted 2mo later)." }, { "claim_text": "Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong. Bitcoin selling pressure is easing, and massive inflows are coming through ETFs.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-08", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://crypto.news/cryptoquant-ceo-admits-he-was-wrong-about-bitcoin-bull-cycle/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong. #Bitcoin selling pressure is easing, and massive inflows are coming through ETFs.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said selling pressure easing / inflows coming on 2025-05-08 at $103,253; BTC then climbed to a new ATH of $126,296, the predicted continued upside." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin cycle theory is dead. My predictions were based on it - buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds. Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we thought.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-24", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/ki_young_ju/status/1948512682157519266", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#Bitcoin cycle theory is dead. My predictions were based on itβ€”buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds. Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'Cycle theory is dead' (2025-07-24, $118,397) is undercut by the subsequent fairly traditional ~54% drawdown from the $126,296 top down to $58,161." }, { "claim_text": "Once profit-taking cascades, Bitcoin investors' PnL typically falls for about 18 months. Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2027-03-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-30", "specificity": 44, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/cryptoquant-ki-young-ju-bitcoin-bear-market-2027/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Once profit-taking cascades, Bitcoin investors' PnL typically falls for about 18 months. Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bear market lasting until early 2027 β€” window (deadline 2027-03-31) still open as of 2026-06-30; BTC down from $73,771 to $58,161 so far, consistent but unresolved." }, { "claim_text": "The bear market that began in October 2025 could last until early 2027 based on historical PnL cycles.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2027", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/ki_young_ju/status/2060302097795645596", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Once profit-taking cascades, Bitcoin investors' PnL typically falls for about 18 months. Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027. The trend only changes when unrealized profits rise and realized profits fall. We're not there yet.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bear market until early 2027 β€” deadline 2027 not elapsed; BTC fell from $73,367 to $58,161 so far, trend consistent but window open." }, { "claim_text": "The current Bitcoin bear market will be relatively mild (\"cute\") compared to previous ones.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-09", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/ki_young_ju/status/2009665458975514649", "source_type": "x", "quote": "This Bitcoin bear market will be cute", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'Bear market will be cute' (2026-01-09, $90,515) β€” BTC has since fallen ~36% to $58,161 (~54% off ATH), substantial and still deepening, not clearly mild; no deadline, ongoing." } ] }, { "id": "knut-svanholm", "name": "Knut Svanholm", "handles": { "x": "@knutsvanholm", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "author", "philosopher", "podcaster", "bitcoin-educator" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 97800, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://www.speakrj.com/audit/report/knutsvanholm/twitter" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Knut Svanholm speculates that Bitcoin's purchasing power could reach five million dollars per coin as production and transportation costs fall and technology advances.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 5000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2021-09-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/SLP304-Is-The-Bitcoin-Infinity-Meme-Wrong--With-Knut-Svanholm-e17b409", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "prices of production and prices of transportation everything going down at enormous speeds... the purchasing power of a bitcoin can only go up faster after that point... is anyone really prepared for two more zeros at the end of the end of the value of bitcoin so like uh what is that... five million dollars per bitcoin instead of fifty thousand dollars right", "timestamp": "0:27:02", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2021-09-14); 2026-09-14 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "lark-davis", "name": "Lark Davis", "handles": { "x": "@TheCryptoLark", "nostr": null, "youtube": "The Crypto Lark", "web": null }, "category": [ "youtuber", "commentator", "trader", "newsletter" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 1400000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://www.speakrj.com/audit/report/TheCryptoLark/twitter" }, "score": 25, "score_adj": 50, "avg_specificity": 12, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 4, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 3, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could go to $150K this cycle, driven largely by the spot ETFs, though investors should not anchor to a rigid price target and should ladder out (\"don't buy forever\").", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2024-02-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/02/36915034/bitcoin-could-go-to-150k-says-crypto-veteran-lark-davis-shares-exit-strategy-dont-buy-fore", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin Could Go 'To $150K,' Says Crypto Veteran Lark Davis ... 'It doesn't mean the super cycle is here,' Davis cautioned regarding Bitcoin ETF inflows.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-02-02); 2026-08-02 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's inverse head-and-shoulders breakout projects a target exceeding $150,000, aligning with the 2.618 Fibonacci extension (~$155,665).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2025-07-31", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/07/31/bitcoin-eyes-150k-as-inverse-head-and-shoulders-breakout-aligns-with-fibonacci-target/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "the pattern's projected target exceeds $150,000 and aligns with the 2.618 Fibonacci extension level ... $155,665, which nearly matches the projected breakout target from the pattern.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-04-28 horizon; never reached $150,000." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin keeps sliding, the most likely landing/retest zone is $108,000-$112,000 (downside warning made when BTC was ~$118K).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 112000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-17", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/08/17/bitcoin-steadies-at-usd118k-as-analysts-flag-deeper-pullback-risks-and-altcoin-rotation", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Analyst Lark Davis flagged $108K-$112K as a potential retest zone if bitcoin keeps sliding.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Flagged $108K-$112K retest zone if BTC slides (2025-08-17, $117,489); BTC subsequently fell through that band on its way down to $58,000." }, { "claim_text": "Either the 4-year cycle is dead, or we've just entered a bear market; given the macro backdrop and how the market has evolved, Davis leans toward the four-year cycle being dead (not a bear market).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-20", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptonewsland.com/lark-davis-says-bitcoin-4-year-cycle/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Either the 4-year cycle is dead, or we've just entered a bear market. Given the macro backdrop and how this market has evolved, I'm leaning toward the former...", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Leaned toward '4-year cycle is dead, not a bear market' (2025-11-20, $86,537), but BTC fell to $58,161 β€” exactly the bear market he discounted." }, { "claim_text": "Market sentiment and frustration look like the kind seen closer to market bottoms than at hot times in the market; Davis indicates the crypto market is close to / nearing a bottom.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-09", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.curzioresearch.com/crypto-expert-lark-davis-signs-were-close-to-a-crypto-bottom/", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "it's the kind of sentiment and frustration that you tend to see closer to market bottoms than at, of course, hot times in the market, right?", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called sentiment near a market bottom (2026-02-09, $70,102); BTC bounced to $82,814 then fell to a new low of $58,000, below his level β€” bottom was not in." } ] }, { "id": "larry-fink", "name": "Larry Fink", "handles": { "x": "larryfink", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.blackrock.com" }, "category": [ "institutional", "asset-manager", "ceo" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 0, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "not verified β€” Fink does not maintain an active personal X account with a follower count confirmed from an opened source" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "If sovereign wealth funds (and everyone) adopted 2%-5% Bitcoin allocations, Bitcoin would be worth $500,000, $600,000, or $700,000 per coin. Framed as a hypothetical scenario; Fink said he was 'not promoting it.'", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 700000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2025-01-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://decrypt.co/302326/blackrock-ceo-bullish-bitcoin-adoption-700k", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If everybody adopted that conversation, it would be $500,000, $600,000, $700,000 for Bitcoin.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-01-22); 2029-01-22 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Larry Fink has stated he believes Bitcoin will reach $700,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 700000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-28", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/luke-broyles-why-mainstream-still-doesnt-get-bitcoin-what-could-send-it-to-tens-of-millions-per-coin", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Larry Fink says Bitcoin is going to go to 700,000.", "timestamp": "0:20:52", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-08-28); 2029-08-28 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "larry-leppard", "name": "Larry Leppard", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Larry Leppard, a hard-asset fund manager who holds gold, silver, and Bitcoin, predicts Bitcoin will reach $200K and that nothing will stop it.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-10", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Why-They-Cant-STOP-the-36T-Debt-Bubble--Bitcoin-Was-Right---Beyond-Bitcoin-e3hmbqc", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "When a hard asset generalist says Bitcoin is going to $200K and nothing will stop it, that means something different than when a Bitcoin maximalist says it.", "timestamp": "0:15:48", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-10); 2028-04-10 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will outperform and demonetize gold going forward.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-07", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/sokYhfsuGnDIQ10FLdqm/items/9d99XvWQd20XQ7Flapma/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And they're right, Bitcoin's going to demonetize gold, Bitcoin's going to outperform gold, but in fiat nominal terms, gold's not going down. Fiat going down much faster than gold and Bitcoin And of course Bitcoin will outperform gold but those who don want the volatility of Bitcoin gold probably your best second choice", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Lepard makes a forward first-party directional call that Bitcoin will outperform gold over time; open-ended with no deadline so unresolved." } ] }, { "id": "laura-shin", "name": "Laura Shin", "handles": { "x": "@laurashin", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://laurashin.com" }, "category": [ "journalist", "podcast-host", "author" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 287200, "as_of": "2026-06-24", "source": "https://x.com/laurashin" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [] }, { "id": "lawrence-lepard", "name": "Lawrence Lepard", "handles": { "x": "@LawrenceLepard", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://emainvests.com" }, "category": [ "fund_manager", "sound_money_advocate", "macro" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 253300, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/LawrenceLepard" }, "score": 30, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 14, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 5, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 3, "partial": 1, "pending": 17 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Asked whether Bitcoin could reach $2 million, Lepard replied 'Yeah, easily, easily,' with a timeframe of 'five or six years.' He also called for a next macro top near $200,000 followed by a ~70% drawdown, and said he believes Bitcoin will go up 100X.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 2000000, "deadline": "2028-10-16", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-10-16", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-easily-due-to-hit-2m-in-six-years-larry-lepard-202210181057", "source_type": "article", "quote": "'Yeah, easily, easily' he replied when asked if Bitcoin could reach $2 million, with a timeframe of 'five or six years'. ... 'I personally believe Bitcoin's going to go up 100X.' The next cycle peak should reach approximately $200,000, followed by a 70% drawdown.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2022-10-16); 2028-10-16 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Within the same Oct 2022 interview Lepard named ~$200,000 as the next macro top / cycle peak for Bitcoin (before a subsequent ~70% drawdown).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2022-10-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-easily-due-to-hit-2m-in-six-years-larry-lepard-202210181057", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The next macro top for Bitcoin should be up to $200,000, followed by another 70% drawdown.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $109,358 through the 2025-04-16 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "In Oct 2022 (BTC ~$19,600) Lepard said '$14,000 has become a popular downside target' that he shares, and that he would 'back up the truck' at that price.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 14000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-10-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-easily-due-to-hit-2m-in-six-years-larry-lepard-202210181057", "source_type": "article", "quote": "$14,000 has become a popular downside target [that he shares], stating he would 'back up the truck' at that price level.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Shared a $14,000 downside target (2022-10-16, $19,264); BTC's cycle low was $15,460 and never reached $14,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin progression: 'I think we'll hit $100,000. Then I think we'll reach $1 million, and ... ultimately $10 million per coin,' tied to a US dollar collapse Lepard expects 'within the next decade.'", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000000, "deadline": "2033-04-11", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-04-11", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-price-predicted-to-hit-10-million/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I think we'll hit $100,000. Then I think we'll reach $1 million, and [...] ultimately $10 million per coin. ... [the dollar would collapse] within the next decade.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-04-11); 2033-04-11 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "'I fully expect Bitcoin's going to go to US$200,000' in the 'next couple of years' (alongside $5,000 gold), said on the sidelines of the New Orleans Investment Conference.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-12", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://investingnews.com/larry-lepard-december-2024/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I fully expect Bitcoin's going to go to US$200,000 ... in the next couple of years.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-12-12); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Lepard reiterated high confidence Bitcoin reaches $200,000, framing current ~$70k prices as a great entry, and forecasting a systemic 'breaking point' within 12-18 months driven by renewed Fed money printing.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2027-09-27", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-27", "specificity": 70, "citation": { "url": "https://coinpedia.org/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-lawrence-lepard-sets-200000-target-as-fed-returns-to-money-printing-in-2026/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If you can buy Bitcoin at $70,000, that is great. ... [he expresses] high confidence that Bitcoin reaches $200,000 ... the system faces a breaking point within 12-18 months.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-27); 2027-09-27 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "After BTC's ~50% drop from its all-time high, Lepard said 'We're either at or within spitting distance of a bottom' and 'I'm quite convinced that the thesis isn't broken and that the next run-up will take us to $200,000,' targeting it 'within the next year or two.'", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-09", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/top-bitcoin-analyst-predicts-200k-171123896.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "We're either at or within spitting distance of a bottom ... I'm quite convinced that the thesis isn't broken and that the next run-up will take us to $200,000 ... sometime within the next year or two, for sure.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'At/near a bottom' + $200k within 1-2 years (2026-06-09, $61,686); BTC since made a new low at $58,000 but the $200k long-horizon window is still open." }, { "claim_text": "When Bitcoin gets into the next upswing phase, it goes much higher than the last cycle β€” to roughly $180k, $200k, or $240k.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 180000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2026-06-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/JxuMgh7PsuZmakSrSGmq/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "seven years ago that we're only gonna have 50 drawdowns i'd have bit your hand up for it so i guess like we can't complain about this we're moving in the right direction i mean if if 60 is the new 15 you know all right i can live with that because i know what that means when we do get into the upswing phase that we're going to 180 or 200 or 240 or something. It's going to be much higher than it was the last time around. So here we are. Yeah, Bitcoin will continue to win. But ", "timestamp": "0:03:22", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $65,553 since 2026-06-22); 2028-12-22 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will wake up and go from ~$90k to ~$270k (3x) within six to twelve months as the debasement/big print arrives.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 270000, "deadline": "2027-01-22", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-22", "specificity": 70, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/bOjwkXoyuZqoCoS4kmaE/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "and then bitcoin followed the flag and i i kind of expect the same thing this time gold's doing its thing it's moving it says the debasement is coming the debasement will come gold will keep running and then at some point as the debasement comes and the money flows in bitcoin is going to wake up and go from you know 90 to 270 or you know 3x easily in my view so is it tomorrow no i mean i i have that as within six to six to twelve months i guess but i i could be wrong i mean m", "timestamp": "0:12:38", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $91,147 since 2026-01-22); 2027-01-22 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "This cycle takes Bitcoin to roughly $200,000-$250,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2025-09-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/6y1PF8mVLJNTBcqYyq7V/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I bought them. Do you want a seat on the lifeboat, or do you want to stay on the Titanic? I think this cycle takes us to kind of 200, 250 in Bitcoin. I'm quite certain that Bitcoin will be a million dollars. What I'm not certain of is how much will a gallon of gasoline cost when Bitcoin's a million dollars.", "timestamp": "0:00:20", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-09-22); 2028-03-22 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "When things break (bond market loses confidence), Bitcoin will go to $150K easily.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2024-10-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/The-Next-Big-Print-Sends-Bitcoin-to-350K-with-Lawrence-Lepard-SLP608-e2p8s23", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I mean, I think, you know, when things break, you know, gold's going to go through 3000 and Bitcoin's going to go to 150, you know, easily in my view.", "timestamp": "0:08:31", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-10-05); 2029-10-05 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Lepard hopes Bitcoin reaches $1 million in the current year (2025).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2025", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-29", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC2256090188.mp3?updated=1753848616", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I love Samson and I hope we go to 1 million this year.", "timestamp": "0:18:05", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $1,000,000." }, { "claim_text": "Lepard believes Bitcoin will break above the power law model to the upside as Gresham's law dynamics take hold.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC2256090188.mp3?updated=1753848616", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I use the power law as my base worst case model because I think we'll easily do that because we've done that historically. There's 97% correlation. But I think we'll break that to the upside very clearly as the Gresham's law piece of it ki", "timestamp": "0:18:12", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC breaks power-law model to the upside (2025-01-29, $103,747) β€” multi-year/cycle thesis with no deadline; BTC hit $126,296 ATH but is now $58,161, undetermined over its long horizon." }, { "claim_text": "Lepard believes Bitcoin will reach prices that blow people away in the next 20 years, going up forever due to fixed supply.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC2256090188.mp3?updated=1753848616", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "it's going to go to numbers that are going to blow people away. And 20 years from now, it's going to be very obvious who owned Bitcoin and who didn't.", "timestamp": "0:28:08", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "20-year horizon ('20 years from now') has not elapsed since the 2025-01-29 call; outcome undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "The $40k level is gone as a floor; BTC may briefly wick into the $50k range before recovering.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-20", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/LawrenceLepard/status/2068407531978850476", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Agree. I think low end of Power Law model holds. 40k long gone, maybe a brief wick to a 50 something handle.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-20); 2027-03-20 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will ultimately become a multi-million-dollar-per-coin asset.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2024-03-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/lawrence-lepard-bitcoin-price-going-to-multimillion-per-coin-dont-sell-at-100k", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "everybody needs to think long term and because long term I'm quite confident that this is going to be a multi-million dollar per coin asset", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-03-14); 2029-03-14 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will be higher in a month and much higher in six months.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-03-14", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/lawrence-lepard-bitcoin-price-going-to-multimillion-per-coin-dont-sell-at-100k", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I kind of see the sky as the limit for both of these assets uh I expect they'll be higher in a month and I expect to be much higher in six months", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Made 2024-03-14 at $71,365; one-month/six-month windows elapsed β€” BTC was lower near both checkpoints (mid-2024 traded ~$58k-65k, e.g. low_since $49,050) before later highs, so 'much higher in six months' did not hold." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is at new all-time highs and will go much higher.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-03-14", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/lawrence-lepard-bitcoin-price-going-to-multimillion-per-coin-dont-sell-at-100k", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "this is why bitcoin bitcoin is at new all-time highs and i expect it's going to go much higher", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended 'go much higher' from $71,365; BTC subsequently made new ATHs reaching $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will climb through $100k, $400k, $1M, $4M, then $10M over roughly a 20-year time frame.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000000, "deadline": "2044", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-03-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/lawrence-lepard-bitcoin-price-going-to-multimillion-per-coin-dont-sell-at-100k", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "these coins will be you know a hundred thousand then they'll be 400 then there'll be a million then there'll be four million then there'll be 10 million you know and and and the time frame on all of that is probably 20 years", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-03-14); 2044-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoiners will be wealthy when these coins are worth a million dollars a coin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2024-03-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/lawrence-lepard-bitcoin-price-going-to-multimillion-per-coin-dont-sell-at-100k", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "bitcoiners are going to be wealthy when these coins are worth a million dollars a coin", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-03-14); 2030-03-14 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Lepard predicts Bitcoin will eventually reach $10 million per coin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2023-05-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD654_-_Lawrence_Lepard_-_Final_Mix.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "You know, there are 21 million of these suckers and there's 8 billion people. These things are going to $10 million a coin. Not fingers crossed. It's just happening. It's math, man.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-05-05); 2028-05-05 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Lepard believes Bitcoin will reach $1 million per coin, framing it as a clear inevitability if it continues its compounding trajectory.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-29", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC2256090188.mp3?updated=1753848616", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "if in six years, it's at a million, are you going to experience regret that you didn't buy it at 100,000? And my guess is the answer is yes, because anything that does", "timestamp": "0:26:48", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-01-29); 2029-01-28 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "lou-kerner", "name": "Lou Kerner", "handles": { "x": "@loukerner", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://loukerner.medium.com/" }, "category": [ "vc", "commentator", "writer" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 27600, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/loukerner?lang=en" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 4 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach a $1 million price by 2031, predicated on bitcoin equaling the market cap of gold (or ~5% of the global market cap of stocks and bonds) within 10 years of the January 2021 prediction.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2031-01-03", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-01-03", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://medium.com/quantum-economics/how-high-can-bitcoin-go-b8ddf1ae808a", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "At parity with $1 (100 cents = 100 sats = 1 dSat or dollar SAT) bitcoin is worth $1M ... bitcoin reaches $1 million in value by equaling the value of gold in 2031.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2021-01-03); 2031-01-03 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Reaffirmed the 10-year $1M Bitcoin price target for January 2031, stating bitcoin's share of the store-of-value market 'needs to 2X+ to 27.7% to get to $1M bitcoin in 2031,' which he describes as 'imminently doable.'", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2031-01-03", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-08-25", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://medium.com/quantum-economics/hows-my-10-year-1m-price-target-for-bitcoin-looking-3-years-in-ea116ef8e943", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "So my $1M price projection for bitcoin in 2031, solely based on its store of value narrative ... needs to 2X+ to 27.7% to get to $1M bitcoin in 2031 ... imminently doable.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-08-25); 2031-01-03 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Updated model leaves the $1M Bitcoin price target for January 2031 unchanged; now estimates bitcoin reaching ~53% of gold's market cap in 2031 (vs. parity) against a nearly-doubled gold market-cap estimate.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2031-01-03", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-06-16", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://medium.com/quantum-economics/updating-my-10-year-jan-2031-1m-price-target-for-bitcoin-cef33b1cd20f", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "Instead of equaling the market cap of gold in 2031, we now esitmate it will only reach ~53% of golds market cap.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-06-16); 2031-01-03 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Agentic investing will be the primary driver that takes BTC to $1 million.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-03-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/loukerner/status/2029269409957593520", "source_type": "x", "quote": "BREAKING THOUGHT: Agentic investing's exploding! It'll quickly make tens of millions of people better investors, with higher returns, optimized for their sharpe ratio. That world's coming fast, and it will be the primary driver getting #BTC to $1M", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-04); 2026-12-04 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "luke-broyles", "name": "Luke Broyles", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Luke Broyles believes Bitcoin will eventually reach $5 million to $10 million or more, though it will take longer than most people expect.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 5000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-28", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/luke-broyles-why-mainstream-still-doesnt-get-bitcoin-what-could-send-it-to-tens-of-millions-per-coin", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think Bitcoin will be 5 million, 10 million or more. And people will still be saying, yeah, well, it's, it's 8% of rolled assets. Now I can't go any higher.", "timestamp": "0:25:03", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$5M-$10M target is an explicitly decades-long, 'longer than most expect' horizon; window far from elapsed." } ] }, { "id": "luke-gromen", "name": "Luke Gromen", "handles": { "x": "@LukeGromen", "nostr": null, "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/c/LukeGromenFFTTLLC", "web": "https://fftt-llc.com/" }, "category": [ "macro-analyst", "newsletter-author", "bitcoin-commentator" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 431623, "as_of": "2026-04-21", "source": "https://www.speakrj.com/audit/report/LukeGromen/twitter" }, "score": 75, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 4, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 0, "partial": 2, "pending": 4 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could deliver roughly 6X returns over the next six years (toward ~2030) as investors sell bonds and rotate into hard assets; headline framed this as 'Bitcoin at $420k?'", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 420000, "deadline": "2030-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-06-14", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-06-14/gold-new-reserve-asset-price-target-7k-15k-2030-just-return-long-term", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "Gromen is not ruling out 6X returns for Bitcoin in the next six years as investors sell bonds and buy assets that hold value.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-06-14); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin looks weak enough that a move toward the $40,000 range in 2026 is possible; trimming Bitcoin exposure in favor of gold and equities.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 40000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-29", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://ts2.tech/en/bitcoin-to-40000-macro-strategist-luke-gromen-trims-risk-as-gold-regains-ground/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "\"A move toward the $40,000 range in 2026 is possible,\" Gromen said on the RiskReversal podcast.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Deadline 2026-12-31 still open; low_by_deadline so far $58,000, not yet near $40k, window not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could be stuck/suppressed in a frustration zone of roughly $58K to $72K (via derivatives expansion, the way gold has been managed); said partly tongue-in-cheek.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-06", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-suppressed-like-gold-luke-gromen/", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "I think the way they would do it is the expansion of derivatives, the way they've done it with gold historically.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "low", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Since 2026-06-06 call BTC stayed confined to the stated ~$58K-$72K zone (low $58,000, high $67,264, current $58,161)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is acting as a liquidity/volatility warning signal and is weak because liquidity is tightening; it will not function as a true neutral reserve asset 'for the next six months'.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-18", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-fundamentals/bitcoin-macro-overview-w-luke-gromen-q4-2025/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitcoin's telling you volatility's coming in soon and maybe we've already seen it starting.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Six-month 'volatility coming' weakness call from 2025-11-18 ($92,914) played out β€” BTC fell to $58,000 / current $58,161 within the window." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will rise significantly as it begins to 'run the deficits' alongside gold in the global monetary rebalancing.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-04-03", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/luke-gromen-is-trump-triggering-sudden-stop-in-economy-gold-bitcoin-stocks-and-macro-outlook", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think before long, Bitcoin's going to start to run the deficits. And as that happens, you're going to see gold up big, Bitcoin up big, dollar down against the yuan in particular, big.", "timestamp": "0:27:57", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "From $83,174 (2025-04-03) BTC did rise big to $126,296, but round-tripped below entry to $58,161; open-ended 'up big' thesis only partly realized." }, { "claim_text": "Luke Gromen is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term but bullish long term.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-04-07", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/news-block-global-markets-tank-on-trump-tariffs-as-trade-war-escalates-treasury-sec-bessent-predicts-grand-economic-reordering-fidelity-unveils-no-fee-bitcoin-ira", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Luke, very, very bearish in the short-term, bullish long-term.", "timestamp": "0:03:25", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Short-term-bearish call from 2025-04-07 ($79,140) failed (BTC rallied to $126,296); long-term-bullish leg now underwater at $58,161 β€” mixed." }, { "claim_text": "Over time, all else equal, Bitcoin probably wins.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-15", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/6BR9ofZPxm359LS7FUOd/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "We've got exponential functions in two different directions happening. And that means it's going to happen like way, way faster than we think. I think over time, all else equal, Bitcoin probably wins.", "timestamp": "0:00:37", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended long-horizon directional call ('over time' Bitcoin wins) with no deadline and no numeric target; cannot be resolved against ground truth as of 2026-06-20 (BTC ~$63,556, below the $120k+ level when the call was made)." }, { "claim_text": "Luke Groman predicts that capital rotating out of Bitcoin into AI and SpaceX is temporary and Bitcoin is where that capital goes next.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-08", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Bitcoin-Crash-Explained-Heres-Whats-Really-Happening-and-What-Comes-Next---Simply-SatoSHE-e3kfkqm", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Luke's base case, stocks go up in big dollar terms and down in Bitcoin terms, which means in a world where AI wins, Bitcoin still wins harder. Signal 2, the capital rotation into SpaceX and AI is temporary. Bitcoin is where it goes next.", "timestamp": "0:06:34", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claim commits to Bitcoin outperforming stocks in Bitcoin-denominated terms once the AI/SpaceX capital rotation reverses." } ] }, { "id": "lyn-alden", "name": "Lyn Alden", "handles": { "x": "@LynAldenContact", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "lynalden.com" }, "category": [ "macro-analyst" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 800000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/LynAldenContact/status/1952124880809304271" }, "score": 71.1, "score_adj": 72.2, "avg_specificity": 25, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 19, "counts": { "correct": 12, "wrong": 4, "partial": 3, "pending": 3 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could rally as high as $200,000 before the end of 2025; BTC is in the very early stages of its structural bull run with no signs of distribution from long-term holders.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-01-14", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2024/01/14/bitcoin-in-very-early-innings-of-structural-bull-run-as-btc-showing-no-signs-of-distribution-says-lyn-alden/", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "BTC is in the very early stages of its structural bull run ... So far, we've not really seen any sign of distribution. ... Bitcoin could rally to as high as $200,000 before the end of 2025.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "Hopes to see Bitcoin reach $200,000 within the next two years; $100,000 would be a 'disappointing' outcome for this bull market, and price predictions ranging between $150,000 and $500,000 are all 'entirely reasonable.'", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2026-01-03", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-01-03", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptopotato.com/lyn-alden-targets-200000-bitcoin-price-within-next-two-years/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "$100,000 would be a 'disappointing' outcome ... price predictions ranging between $150,000 and $500,000 are all 'entirely reasonable.' ... The range for what it could be is based on so many things that are hard to judge.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-01-03 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "$100,000 would be a 'disappointing' outcome for this bull market cycle.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2026-01-03", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-01-03", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptopotato.com/lyn-alden-targets-200000-bitcoin-price-within-next-two-years/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "$100,000 would be a 'disappointing' outcome", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2024-01-03..2026-01-03], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "My guess is that we end up higher at the end of the year than we are now, at least; before the tariff 'kerfuffle' I would have had a higher price target, but there is still a good chance Bitcoin reclaims $100,000 before year-end 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-04-17", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:2575f9016094b:0-lyn-alden-lowers-bitcoin-forecast-after-tariff-kerfuffle-eyes-liquidity/", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "My guess is that we end up higher at the end of the year than we are now, at least. ... Before all this tariff kerfuffle, I would have had a higher price target.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2025-04-17..2025-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will end 2025 above its current price (~$84,950 on the day of the interview).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-04-17", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:2575f9016094b:0-lyn-alden-lowers-bitcoin-forecast-after-tariff-kerfuffle-eyes-liquidity/", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "My guess is that we end up higher at the end of the year than we are now, at least", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted higher than ~$84,950 by year-end 2025; BTC was ~$87,111 at 2025-12-29, above the entry." }, { "claim_text": "There is a 'good chance' Bitcoin surpasses the $100,000 mark in 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-04-17", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:2575f9016094b:0-lyn-alden-lowers-bitcoin-forecast-after-tariff-kerfuffle-eyes-liquidity/", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "Alden said there is a 'good chance' Bitcoin reclaims this price [$100,000] before year-end", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2025-04-17..2025-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "The four-year Bitcoin cycle is dead; Bitcoin's 2025 stagnation relates to liquidity and capital rotation rather than the halving cycle. We haven't hit euphoric levels in this cycle, therefore there is less reason to expect a major capitulation. Expects Bitcoin to reclaim $100,000 by 2026, with potential new all-time highs in 2026 or 2027.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-18", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/episodes/wbd973-lynalden", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Why Bitcoin's stagnation has more to do with liquidity and capital rotation than the halving cycle ... and why the four-year Bitcoin cycle is dead.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'Reclaim $100k by 2026, new ATH in 2026 or 2027' window still open; so far high only $97,964 (no $100k reclaim, no new ATH) but 2026/2027 not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "No one is owed a bull market; we haven't hit euphoric levels in this cycle, therefore there is less of a reason to expect a kind of major capitulation. Markets rarely deliver the extremes investors prepare for.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-18", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/no-big-crash-sight-bitcoin-083942345.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "We haven't hit euphoric levels in this cycle; therefore, there is less of a reason to expect a kind of major capitulation. ... People get in their mindset where they are owed a bull market. No one is owed a bull market.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claimed less reason for major capitulation; from $92,914 (2025-11-18) BTC fell ~37% to $58,000 (~54% off the $126k high) β€” a major capitulation did occur." }, { "claim_text": "The four-year Bitcoin cycle is no longer a fundamental law of nature, but cycles still exist; the recent move felt muted because retail participation never fully returned. Does not expect this bear market to be as long as previous ones because the preceding bull market itself was not very strong.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-28", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/lyn-alden-bitcoins-four-year-cycle-is-evolving-retail-participation-remains-muted-and-integration-into-finance-is-crucial-for-global-adoption-the-wolf-of-all-streets/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "The four-year Bitcoin cycle is no longer a law of nature, but cycles still exist ... This one played out very differently it felt muted for one simple reason retail participation never fully returned ... I don't expect it to be as long of a bear market.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bear-market premise realized: BTC fell from a ~$126k high to $58,161 (from $66,968 at the call), a clear bear move; duration claim aside, the directional/cyclical read held." }, { "claim_text": "Remains 'fairly constructive' on Bitcoin's outlook for 2025, anticipating a more pro-liquidity environment as the Fed potentially eases; cautioned against expecting imminent sharp price increases.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-08-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/08/40505001/bitcoins-2025-outlook-is-fairly-constructive-considering-the-fragile-financial-system-macr", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Alden ... remains 'fairly constructive' on Bitcoin's outlook for 2025, anticipating a more pro-liquidity environment as the Federal Reserve potentially eases monetary policy.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Constructive-on-2025 call vindicated: BTC rose from $60,383 to a high of $126,296 within the 2025 window." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has a reasonable shot of hitting $1 million by 2035 (though she is wary of the call being repeated too loudly).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2035-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-11-22", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/LynAldenContact/status/1595181926201147392", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I think bitcoin has a reasonable shot of hitting $1 million by 2035, but the more people that say it, the more I'm like, \"meh, chill out folks\".", "timestamp": "2022-11-22T22:26:22.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2022-11-22); 2035-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is dead right now β€” it fell 70%. Let's check back in 2-3 years during the next rising liquidity cycle and PMI cycle (i.e. expects a recovery in the next liquidity/PMI upcycle, roughly 2024-2025).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-11-21", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/LynAldenContact/status/1594570004434935808", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin is dead right now. It fell 70%.\n\nLet's check back in 2-3 years during the next rising liquidity cycle and PMI cycle.", "timestamp": "2022-11-21T05:54:49.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Recovery in the next liquidity/PMI upcycle materialized: from the $15,760 'dead' level BTC recovered to $126,296 by 2024-2025." }, { "claim_text": "With the rate-of-change of Fed hawkishness nearly behind us, there's a rising argument for the Bitcoin bottom to perhaps be in.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-11-05", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/LynAldenContact/status/1588923840326881281", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I think the rate-of-change of hawkishness is nearly behind us now, but not the absolute level obviously.\n\nIf so, imo there's a rising argument for gold to catch more of a bid, and for perhaps the bitcoin bottom to be in for example. Scarce things with no profits to worry about.", "timestamp": "2022-11-05T15:58:58.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bottom-is-in call held: from $21,300 the only deeper low was $15,460 (Nov 2022), after which BTC rose to $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "It's a healthy bull market, in my opinion; now that bitcoin is a $2T+ network it's normal for it to move like a more liquid asset, and it's still up ~8x from the 2022 low.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-26", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://njump.me/f4c9ac0d96f8d486df7ed7e950be4d06d5968bbe7a6b96c8ea3ee2f795ea4dfb", "source_type": "nostr", "quote": "It's a healthy bull market, imo. And now that bitcoin is a $2T+ network, it's normal for it to move like a more liquid asset should.\n\nAnd it's still up like 8x from the 2022 low. The S&P 500 is up less than 2x.\n\nnostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzp9m7d7fwgqyzkchl3k353ftejdnxvjrrf2wyfx66yg9av4mwmgp5qqs24cg9mhnf9nwv0d4gzdr8ssmg2q6h5get7y306w8vd9575mk4c4ctmz2xe ", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'Healthy bull market' at $117,970 topped near $126,296 then reversed ~54% to $58,000; the bull he described ended shortly after." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will be back into the six figures (>= $100k) in 2026.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-18", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/31hqLbfqGakqNn1s61S8/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "in treasury companies, too heavily in altcoins, or they are too heavily in Bitcoin in the sense that their expectations don't match reality. I do expect that, you know, in 2026, we'll be back into the six figures. And whether it's 2026 or 2027, I think we'll be seeing new all-time highs, most likely. There's no particular reason to believe that there's a four-year cycle intact. We haven't hit euphoric levels this cycle. Therefore, there's less of a reason to expect kind of a", "timestamp": "0:00:22", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $97,964 in [2025-11-18..2026-07-01], reaching the $100,000 target (within 2.0% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "Alden expects the broader crypto space's overvalued market cap and brand drag to weigh Bitcoin down for a period of time.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-17", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Will-Money-Printing-End-Bitcoin-Bear-Market---Lyn-Alden-e3f7avu", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think if anything, they are weighing on kind of the quote unquote brand of Bitcoin. That's going to weigh it down probably for a period of time. There's still something like a trillion dollars in crypto market cap that I think is overvalued.", "timestamp": "0:00:12", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted crypto-drag would weigh BTC down 'for a period' from $67,467; BTC fell to $58,161 (low $58,000) since." }, { "claim_text": "Lynn Alden says Bitcoin is a buying opportunity, implying she expects the price to be higher in the future.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Did-Larry-Finks-SHOCKING-WARNING-Signal-the-Next-Bitcoin-Bull-Run---Bitcoin-Simply-e3hdg7v", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Is Bitcoin a buying opportunity? I do. I think Bitcoin's a buying opportunity. I also think, um, you know, uh, Latin American banks, for example, uh, airlines, airports, I think these things don't necessarily bounce back quickly.", "timestamp": "0:06:57", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "From $67,292 BTC spiked to $82,814 (a real buying-opportunity payoff) before falling to $58,161; mixed, currently below entry with no firm deadline." }, { "claim_text": "Lynn Alden says Bitcoin is a buying opportunity, implying she expects the price to be higher in the future.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Did-Larry-Finks-SHOCKING-WARNING-Signal-the-Next-Bitcoin-Bull-Run---Bitcoin-Simply-e3hdg7v", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Is Bitcoin a buying opportunity? I do. I think Bitcoin's a buying opportunity. I also think, um, you know, uh, Latin American banks, for example, uh, airlines, airports, I think these things don't necessarily bounce back quickly.", "timestamp": "0:06:57", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Duplicate of #16: from $67,292 BTC reached $82,814 then fell to $58,161; partially borne out (a high above entry) but now below." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will probably be higher 12 months from now than it is today.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-11-11", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-11", "specificity": 46, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/lyn-alden-on-bitcoin-price-jump-future-of-bitcoin-navigating-forks-risks-institutional-impact", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I generally expect Bitcoin to probably be higher 12 months from now than it is now, obviously no guarantees. But that's kind of my base case at the current time.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "12-month window elapsed; from $88,771 BTC reached $126,296 but low_by_deadline was $74,421, so the deadline-point price straddles entry and isn't clearly higher." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will be bullish in 2025, driven by rising global liquidity, with no strong directional view for the rest of 2024.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-08-19", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/lyn-alden-nothing-stops-this-fiscal-train-bitcoin-price-analysis-bullish-for-2025", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I do think as we look out to 2025, I'm pretty bullish. I don't really have a strong opinion for the remainder of this year... since I expect probably global liquidity to go higher in 2025, and given all the other characteristics you see about Bitcoin at the time, I'm pretty bullish.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bullish-2025 call confirmed: BTC rose from $59,453 to a 2025 high of $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "Lyn Alden would not be surprised to see Bitcoin well over $50,000 in 2021.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": "2021", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-01-29", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD304_-_Lyn_Alden.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And so I wouldn't be surprised to see, you know, well over 50,000 this year. You hear some some of these really high targets and it is hard to put those aside.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $69,000 in [2021-01-29..2021-12-31], reaching the $50,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Lyn Alden expects Bitcoin to have the best performance of any major asset class over the next five to ten years.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2035", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-25", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/lyn-alden-no-massive-boom-or-bust-ahead-recession-fears-bitcoin-vs-gold-price-and-the-debt-dilemma", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I do think that Bitcoin is, you know, if you look back five years from now, it'll probably have had the best performance of that group, I'd expect, probably 10 years as well.", "timestamp": "0:23:51", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Commits to Bitcoin outperforming equities and gold on a 5-year horizon from late 2025 (i.e., by ~2030) and also a 10-year horizon (~2035); no USD price target given." } ] }, { "id": "mark-cuban", "name": "Mark Cuban", "handles": { "x": "@mcuban", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "billionaire", "entrepreneur", "investor", "tv-personality" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 8800000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://m.facebook.com/NEWSMAX/photos/mark-cuban-polled-his-88-million-x-followers-on-whos-persona-and-character-would/946397070866229/" }, "score": 100, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 3, "counts": { "correct": 3, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Responding to Preston Pysh, Cuban tweeted that Bitcoin is not, and never will be, a hedge against inflation, dismissing the inflation-hedge framing as a 'marketing slogan' just like it is for gold.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-01-11", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptopotato.com/mark-cuban-says-bitcoin-is-not-and-will-never-be-an-inflation-hedge/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "You still think btc is an inflation hedge ? It's not and never will be.", "timestamp": "2022-01-11", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Over the observed window BTC failed as an inflation hedge: from $42,753 amid 2022 inflation it crashed to $15,460 rather than holding value." }, { "claim_text": "Asked how high Bitcoin could go, Cuban said it would be 'way higher than you think,' attributing the upside to Bitcoin's role as a global safe-haven / scarce store of value amid dollar and geopolitical uncertainty. No specific dollar target was given.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-07-17", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptoslate.com/mark-cuban-says-bitcoin-price-will-be-way-higher-than-expectations-addresses-trumps-growing-support/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin will be way higher than expectations", "timestamp": "2024-07-17", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'Way higher' delivered: from $64,086 BTC nearly doubled to $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "Tongue-in-cheek tweet that he would run for President of the United States if Bitcoin hit $1 million, proposing to donate BTC to the Treasury to distribute satoshis to citizens. Effectively framed an aspirational $1M BTC milestone.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2021-01-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/01/19032342/mark-cuban-will-run-for-president-when-bitcoin-touches-1m", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Mark Cuban said he would run for the office of the president of the United States if Bitcoin hits $1 million", "timestamp": "2021-01-06", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "low", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2021-01-05); 2027-01-05 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "In a Front Office Sports interview, Cuban said Bitcoin 'has lost the plot' and revealed he had sold most of his Bitcoin, saying 'It's not the hedge that I expected it to be' after gold spiked to ~$5,000 during the US-Iran conflict while BTC fell β€” a bearish/disappointed regime statement.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-21", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/mark-cuban-sells-most-of-his-bitcoin", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Every time the dollar dropped, Bitcoin should've gone up. It's not the hedge I expected it to be.", "timestamp": "2026-05-21", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "low", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bearish/disappointed call at $77,548 was vindicated β€” BTC fell to a $58,000 low and sits at $58,161 (~25% decline) within the window." } ] }, { "id": "mark-moss", "name": "Mark Moss", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 16.7, "score_adj": 25, "avg_specificity": 16, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 3, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 2, "partial": 1, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Mark Moss predicted that the large Bitcoin drawdown many investors are expecting is probably not going to happen, given compressed volatility and sustained ETF/treasury company demand.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-14", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/mark-moss-reverse-crash-roadmap-retire-off-bitcoin-as-it-grows-to-1-millioncoin", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think that big drawdown that a lot of people are expecting is probably not going to happen. And I think another reason why I would also say that is, well, there's, I think there's two really good other reasons.", "timestamp": "0:13:00", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said the big drawdown 'probably won't happen' at $113,068; BTC then fell to $58,000/$58,161 β€” a ~49% drawdown, exactly what he ruled out." }, { "claim_text": "If Kamala Harris wins the election, Bitcoin will be around $100,000 to $150,000 by next year (2025).", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2025", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-09-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/mark-moss-get-ready-for-an-inflationary-crash-in-bitcoin-real-estate-stocks", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "if Kamala wins, we're on the much more probably conservative side of the projection, which might be in the $100,000 range by next year, maybe a little higher, $150,000. But if Trump wins, I think we could be at the top end of that range, which again would be somewhere in that $400,000 range.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Conditioned on 'if Kamala wins' β€” she lost, so the scenario never triggered; BTC did reach the $100k–$150k band ($126,296 high by 2025) but the predicted antecedent failed." }, { "claim_text": "If Trump wins the election and follows through on a Bitcoin reserve, Bitcoin could reach the $400,000 range by next year (2025).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 400000, "deadline": "2025", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-09-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/mark-moss-get-ready-for-an-inflationary-crash-in-bitcoin-real-estate-stocks", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "when we look at where Bitcoin could be by next year, I mean, we could be certainly at the top end of that range, maybe in the sounds insane, could be at the three $400,000 levels.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $400,000." } ] }, { "id": "mark-yusko", "name": "Mark Yusko", "handles": { "x": "@MarkYusko", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.morgancreekcap.com" }, "category": [ "fund_manager", "macro", "bitcoin_bull" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 127600, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/MarkYusko" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": 27.1, "avg_specificity": 43, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 5, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 2, "partial": 1, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could reach $250,000 within the next five years, based on equivalence with gold's ~$4 trillion monetary market cap ('digital gold').", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2026-05-10", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-05-10", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2021/05/10/morgan-creek-founder-predicts-250k-bitcoin-within-five-years/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Mark Yusko, the founder and CEO of investment-management firm Morgan Creek Capital Management, says bitcoin could reach $250,000 within the next five years. ... Yusko based his bitcoin target on equivalence with gold, which has a market capitalization of $4 trillion. If BTC reaches that level, each coin would be worth $250,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-05-10 horizon; never reached $250,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will see a significant rise to $150,000 in 2024, peaking roughly nine months after the April 2024 halving (i.e., toward year-end), driven by the halving supply shock and spot-ETF demand. Fair value ~$75k post-halving, with BTC historically reaching ~2x fair value in a bull cycle.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-03-27", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsbtc.com/news/when-bitcoin-price-150000/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin will see a significant rise to $150,000 in 2024 ... If there's more demand than supply, price has to rise ... Bitcoin is the king, it is the dominant token. It is a better form of gold", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $108,389 through the 2024-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000." }, { "claim_text": "After reaching fair value around $100,000, Bitcoin will surge to roughly $120,000-$150,000 by mid-2025 (a ~50% premium above fair value) before turning down.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 120000, "deadline": "2025-06-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-09", "specificity": 68, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:f31f479c5094b:0-mark-yusko-predicts-crypto-bear-market-to-hit-in-mid-2025/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I figured we would blow through that, that six-digit number, and then humans would human ... [Yusko predicts Bitcoin will reach] $120,000 to $150,000 by mid-2025", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC reached $112,000 by the 2025-06-30 horizon β€” within 6.7% of $120,000 but short." }, { "claim_text": "We have another bear market starting mid-year 2025, and we enter crypto winter again.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:f31f479c5094b:0-mark-yusko-predicts-crypto-bear-market-to-hit-in-mid-2025/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "We have another bear market starting mid-year 2025.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "A bear market/crypto winter did materialize in H2 2025 β€” BTC peaked at $126,296 (Oct 2025) then fell to $74,421 by deadline and on to $58,161, within the 2025 window." }, { "claim_text": "We're in crypto winter -- Bitcoin has entered a bear market; potential downside levels could fall into the high-$50,000s to low-$60,000s before a durable bottom forms. (Notes the latest cycle peak was not as far above fair value as prior cycles, so the correction may be milder.)", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-09", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinpedia.org/news/mark-yusko-reveals-how-low-bitcoin-price-could-go-in-2026/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "We're in crypto winter ... potential downside levels could fall into the range around the high-$50,000s to low-$60,000s before a durable bottom forms.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called crypto winter with downside into high-$50ks/low-$60ks from $70,102; BTC bottomed at $58,000 and sits at $58,161 β€” squarely in the predicted band." }, { "claim_text": "Mark Yusko (asset manager, $2B AUM) states the Bitcoin bottom is in and that the worst of the selling has already occurred.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-24", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/This-Signal-Says-Bitcoins-Bottom-Is-In--Bitcoin-Simply-e3gu742", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "He's saying that the bottom is in and that smart investors have already been buying. The worst of the selling has occurred. I totally agree. Because what happens in these cycles is when the price is below fair value, investors buy.", "timestamp": "0:08:04", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claim commits to Bitcoin having already formed its cycle bottom as of the episode date; resolves true if no new lower low is set after 2026-03-24 and Bitcoin goes on to establish a new all-time high." } ] }, { "id": "marty-bent", "name": "Marty Bent", "handles": { "x": "@MartyBent", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.tftc.io/" }, "category": [ "podcaster", "newsletter", "bitcoin-media", "investor" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 273900, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/MartyBent" }, "score": 70, "score_adj": 100, "avg_specificity": 12, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 5, "counts": { "correct": 3, "wrong": 1, "partial": 1, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's price action over the last month has been a tight consolidation ('the coil'); the longer it coils the bigger the eventual pump. An incredible bullish signal for multi-cycle veterans β€” 'prepare accordingly.'", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-08", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://njump.me/a8078086b02cd21d16d2b9868f72f0b37129efc51c1f454657c9d921eec5400c", "source_type": "nostr", "quote": "The longer the coil the bigger the pump. Bitcoin's price action over the last month is boring for most but an incredible signal for those who have been around for a few cycles.\n\nPrepare accordingly.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bullish 'coil β†’ pump' call at $108,958 played out β€” BTC subsequently pumped to a $126,296 ATH before the later decline." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will be a multi-hundred-trillion-dollar market, framed against a ~15-year horizon (today to 2040) of accelerated innovation.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 9500000, "deadline": "2040-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-22", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://njump.me/82113afd2a6b71bf50034b03460b10b4e9bceb724a7317af238608960b72cae4", "source_type": "nostr", "quote": "Flashback to 2010 when you could buy 10 #bitcoin for $3.48.\n\nIt's crazy to think how far not only bitcoin, but the Internet has come in 15 years. This web interface looks ancient.\n\nThe pace of innovation from today to 2040 is going to be even more accelerated and bitcoin will be a multi-hundred trillion dollar market.\n\nhttps://blossom.primal.net/af3c716407aa2c1501592e802fc0a638f440ed00bb1a69a1ce35d0405746f94c.mov", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-07-22); 2040-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is beginning to enter one of those phases that could end in some euphoria at some point later this year (2025).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-18", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/dM1nqrl8bBx2IQZJUJLe/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "But I certainly get the sense, having been in Bitcoin for 12 years, that we're beginning to enter one of those phases that could end in some euphoria at some point later this year.", "timestamp": "0:11:43", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted euphoria later in 2025; BTC made a new ATH of $126,296 in Oct 2025 (high_by_deadline) β€” a euphoric/new-high phase occurred within the window." }, { "claim_text": "Despite the ~25% drawdown from the all-time high, Bitcoin is not entering a traditional multi-year (three-year) bear market because there was no real blow-off top this cycle.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-14", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/0EAzqUaM4qqanDr1qNuK/items/QArbc8YXvh2UQpQdYIu4/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I've been shitting on the super cycle theory for a while ... but I don't think we're entering like a traditional bear market like a three year bear market or something we just didn't really have a blow off top", "timestamp": "0:05:16", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claimed no traditional multi-year bear market; full 3-year window is undetermined, but BTC has since fallen $94,504β†’$58,161 (~54% off ATH) into a clear crypto winter β€” thesis under heavy pressure." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will not immediately recover to its all-time high, even now that Jane Street is being sued.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 126160, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/0EAzqUaM4qqanDr1qNuK/items/JlSfuXATX6KHPi2S6irG/files/VIDEO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I do not think that we are going to immediately recover to all-time highs now that they're being sued. No. But we'll see.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said BTC would NOT immediately recover to ATH (~$126,296); it only reached $82,814 then fell to $58,161 β€” never recovered, as predicted." }, { "claim_text": "With rates getting cut and the economy stimulated, Bitcoin is among the assets that are going to pump and is the best exposure.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-11", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/0EAzqUaM4qqanDr1qNuK/items/0z9sSky6ygNR8cTt2BPW/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "out of all the assets that are going to pump, I think it's pretty clear which one we believe you should all be getting exposure to, which is Bitcoin, most accessible. It's the best way to preserve your purchasing power.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called BTC the asset to pump at $115,540; after a brief $126,296 high it crashed to $58,161 (~50% down) β€” the pump thesis failed." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will eventually flip gold's market cap, which at flat gold prices implies roughly $1.2 million per coin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1200000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2025-09-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/0EAzqUaM4qqanDr1qNuK/items/PSBcSfRnR6NWicpiAmvG/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I saw someone do the math that if gold stayed flat right now, parity would be $1.2 million per coin. We'll get there. We'll get there eventually.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-09-05); 2030-09-05 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "matt-cole", "name": "Matt Cole", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 4 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Cole expects Bitcoin to be several million dollars a coin roughly 25 years into the future as it becomes the global reserve asset.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 2000000, "deadline": "2051", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-01", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/paBeJqepFBns3bT2OAtC/items/PGyfTR0UuPdj8xIX2EQE/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And then on the back end, let's say, who knows what it is, 25 years into the future, Bitcoin's several million dollars a coin. Bitcoin is now kind of the global reserve asset.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $73,979 since 2026-06-01); 2051-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Cole believes Bitcoin will essentially go to infinity over the long run as the dollar goes to zero.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-01", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/paBeJqepFBns3bT2OAtC/items/PGyfTR0UuPdj8xIX2EQE/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "We believe Bitcoin's basically going to go to infinity, right? Because the dollar is going to go to zero. But we can underwrite this from a longer term perspective and use that term amplification to note what I think is a more ideal structure for this instrument.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Long-run 'BTC to infinity' claim made 2026-06-01 at $71,314; the multi-decade horizon is nowhere near elapsed (BTC currently $58,161) β€” undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will keep rising over time, ultimately going to infinity.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Why-Is-Bitcoin-Digital-Credit-So-Important---Matt-Cole-e3kb22r", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "because we know Bitcoin over time on average goes up into the right, and I think it's going to go to literally infinity", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Resolves TRUE if BTC trends upward over the long run; an open-ended perpetual-uptrend directional call with no deadline." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will have a compound annual growth rate of roughly 25-30% over the next 10 years.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2036", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-15", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/Strive-Amplified-Bitcoin-Exposure-Engine-with-Matt-Cole--SLP710-e3dma74", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "you also believe Bitcoin is going to have a CAGR over the next 10 years, north of 10%, we can all debate where we think it is. You know, I think it's probably around 25, 30%", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Resolves TRUE if BTC's realized CAGR from Jan 2026 to ~2036 lands near 25-30%; a long-horizon growth-rate band on BTC itself." } ] }, { "id": "matt-hougan", "name": "Matt Hougan", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 0, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 5 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicted the Bitcoin bull market will continue once the market recovers from near-term jitteriness and refocuses on crypto fundamentals.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-20", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/news-block-bitcoin-price-rebounding-odds-for-next-big-print-rise-doj-seizes-127k-bitcoin-from-pig-butchering-scheme", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Crypto may be a little jittery in the near term, but over time, I expect the market will catch its breath and renew its attention on crypto's fundamentals. When that happens, I think the bull market will continue apace.", "timestamp": "0:01:14", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted the bull market would continue from $110,568; instead BTC reversed into a bear market, falling to $58,161 (~47% down)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitwise expects Bitcoin to cross one million dollars by 2029.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2029", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-03-19", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/matt-hougan-institutional-bitcoin-adoption-starts-now-massive-year-two-three-for-btc-etfs-and-next-catalyst-for-bull-run", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitwise, we think it's going to cross a million dollars by 2029. I think from a shorter term perspective, you can just look at supply and demand in the market.", "timestamp": "0:08:31", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-03-19); 2029-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitwise CIO Matt Hogan says the $1 million per Bitcoin price target is not a ceiling and that targets may need to be revised even higher.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-04-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Strategy-Buys-4-000-Bitcoin-in-30-Minutes--Bitcoins-Price-Floor-Just-Changed-FOREVER--Simply-Originals-e3hvmmv", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "then the million-dollar price target isn't a ceiling. Bitwise said it themselves. We may need to revise our targets higher.", "timestamp": "0:15:20", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-16); 2032-04-16 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitwise CIO Matt Hogan says the $1 million per Bitcoin price target is not a ceiling and that targets may need to be revised even higher.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-04-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Strategy-Buys-4-000-Bitcoin-in-30-Minutes--Bitcoins-Price-Floor-Just-Changed-FOREVER--Simply-Originals-e3hvmmv", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "then the million-dollar price target isn't a ceiling. Bitwise said it themselves. We may need to revise our targets higher.", "timestamp": "0:15:20", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-16); 2032-04-16 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Hougan thinks Bitcoin could reach well north of a million dollars, maybe a couple million, just on the digital-gold thesis.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/paBeJqepFBns3bT2OAtC/items/PJoMsSSRaG9zskx46oyH/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Gold is $30 trillion. Bitcoin could get to well north of a million dollars, maybe a couple million dollars just by being digital gold. And I think it's well on that way. So that's the core way we underwrite Bitcoin.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $78,015 since 2026-05-26); 2031-05-26 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Hougan thinks Bitcoin will get to $1.4 million by 2035 under modest assumptions.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1400000, "deadline": "2035", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-26", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/paBeJqepFBns3bT2OAtC/items/PJoMsSSRaG9zskx46oyH/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And there you can walk them through, like, I love to walk them through why I think Bitcoin will get to $1.4 million by 2035. And there's some very facts-based reasons with some very modest assumptions that get you to those kinds of numbers.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $78,015 since 2026-05-26); 2035-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "matt-odell", "name": "Matt Odell", "handles": { "x": "@ODELL", "nostr": "ODELL (npub on Nostr; primary platform since deleting X in March 2024)", "youtube": null, "web": "https://citadeldispatch.com" }, "category": [ "bitcoin-maximalist", "podcaster", "investor", "freedom-tech", "open-source" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 200000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1774491242472124684" }, "score": 40, "score_adj": 32.7, "avg_specificity": 22, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 10, "counts": { "correct": 4, "wrong": 6, "partial": 0, "pending": 3 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "bottom likely in β€” let's run it back fam", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-06", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://njump.me/nevent1qqsdlhfs2rrce40943w8aw743ceqe550ntnl27sqr85tcrn2pps73nctfff8t", "source_type": "nostr", "quote": "bottom likely in\n\nlet's run it back fam", "timestamp": "2026-02-06T23:14:03Z", "archived_url": "https://primal.net/e/nevent1qqsdlhfs2rrce40943w8aw743ceqe550ntnl27sqr85tcrn2pps73nctfff8t", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called bottom at $70,528 on 2026-02-06; BTC fell to $58,000 and sits at $58,161 well below the call β€” not the bottom." }, { "claim_text": "the bottom was when i called it on nostr and a bunch of yall made fun of me", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-12", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://njump.me/nevent1qqs96ekxszywr4ulsz222nzvca0qxau7n49y2fuc0y6nvugh8k6jajczyqzvj9w6alhrsvtl5u6ygjkwuwg2sf5lukqskgjpuhnd6dpal0kvjkr9e95", "source_type": "nostr", "quote": "the bottom was when i called it on nostr and a bunch of yall made fun of me", "timestamp": "2026-06-12T01:48:43Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claimed bottom at $63,538 (2026-06-12); price subsequently fell to $58,000 / $58,161 current, below the claimed bottom." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will outlive us all and become the reserve currency of the world.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-17", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/U4Flyzny455a3q84XnIa/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And I think at this point, Bitcoin has had the time in the market and the proof in network effect that it's going to be around for a long, long time. It'll probably outlive us all. I, with high confidence, think, which maybe sounds less crazy, even though this is like probably the 20th time I've said it on the show. And it gets less crazy every time I say it. I still expect it to become the reserve currency of the world.", "timestamp": "0:16:56", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Multi-generational 'Bitcoin becomes world reserve currency' claim β€” open-ended, cannot resolve from realized price path." }, { "claim_text": "Despite the ~25% drawdown from the all-time high, Bitcoin is not entering a traditional multi-year (three-year) bear market because there was no real blow-off top this cycle.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-14", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/0EAzqUaM4qqanDr1qNuK/items/QArbc8YXvh2UQpQdYIu4/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I've been shitting on the super cycle theory for a while ... but I don't think we're entering like a traditional bear market like a three year bear market or something we just didn't really have a blow off top", "timestamp": "0:05:16", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said no multi-year bear/no blow-off top on 2025-11-14 at $94,504; BTC has since dropped to $58,000 (~45% off the $116k high), a sustained drawdown undercutting the 'not a real bear' claim." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has not bottomed yet and will fall further, to a low-$70,000s bottom.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 70000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2025-11-21", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/0EAzqUaM4qqanDr1qNuK/items/BjhFm9VGlc4e9cdZc2qD/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I don't think we've bottomed yet. I think we go lower. You think so? I'm my, I do not pretend to have any idea where we go, but I'm thinking like low seventies bottom.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2025-11-21..2026-07-01], reaching the $70,000 downside target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will be over $200k by Christmas.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2021-12-25", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-10-12", "specificity": 100, "citation": { "url": "https://assets.podhome.fm/677e5bd6-598f-4522-1134-08dbdac63cde/transcript_2bab82f0-b83b-4a93-8763-e7401b05f9c1638463031905289831.html", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I don't know your track record on price predictions. You can. And, we're gonna be over 200 k by congress today.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-25 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will crack a new all-time high again before the end of 2021.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 64863, "deadline": "2021", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-06-24", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://assets.podhome.fm/677e5bd6-598f-4522-1134-08dbdac63cde/transcript_813424fa-fcb5-4c2e-8fa9-d028f511c758638463030233958916.html", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I don't know about you guys, but I still think we're gonna crack an all time high again this year.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $69,000 in [2021-06-24..2021-12-31], reaching the $64,863 target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could reach $200k within a couple of months.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2021-05", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-03-10", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://assets.podhome.fm/8029725b-0319-44b9-4793-08dc404e83a4/transcript_116004a3-1798-490e-8d2f-d63b11ff64f7638462900998068419.html", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I'm not saying you're late because you're not. I think we could be at 200 k in a couple months, but the urgency is real.", "timestamp": "0:42:01", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $64,899 through the 2021-05-28 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will be around $200k by the Miami Bitcoin conference (June 2021).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2021-06", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-03-10", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://assets.podhome.fm/8029725b-0319-44b9-4793-08dc404e83a4/transcript_116004a3-1798-490e-8d2f-d63b11ff64f7638462900998068419.html", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "the price is gonna be like it's gonna be like $200,000 Bitcoin ... You you wanna make a bet? ... Like, it won't be 200 k by Yeah. I make that bet every day when I stack. I'll make that bet.", "timestamp": "0:59:46", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $64,899 through the 2021-06-28 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will be pumping in price in June.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2021-06", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-03-03", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://assets.podhome.fm/8029725b-0319-44b9-4793-08dc404e83a4/transcript_509437b2-6957-4342-8d2a-e101e10b0802638462900504240782.html", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "in June. I, you know, I think Bitcoin will be pumping in price.", "timestamp": "0:07:25", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Made 2021-03-03 at $50,360; by June 2021 BTC reached high of $64,899 β€” pumping in price within the window." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will rise past $100,000; anyone who thinks $100k is the top is wrong and effectively short Bitcoin.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-02-24", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://assets.podhome.fm/8029725b-0319-44b9-4793-08dc404e83a4/transcript_c01d9e40-fb13-4edd-a955-dbf4d88b5e33638462900681478921.html", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "if people think, like, a $100,000 Bitcoin is the top, fuck you. You're short Bitcoin. You're wrong. Like, you can pay if you pay a 100% premium, Bitcoin will pump past that.", "timestamp": "2:42:49", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said BTC would pump past $100k (made 2021-02 at $49,738); high since reached $126,296, far above $100k." }, { "claim_text": "Matt Odell expects Bitcoin to outperform real estate across the board.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-10-30", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC6400741665.mp3?updated=1743567012", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I'd rather own Bitcoin. It's highly liquid. I think it's going to outperform real estate across the board.", "timestamp": "0:16:38", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claim resolves true if Bitcoin's returns over a multi-year horizon exceed broad real estate index returns from the date of the episode." }, { "claim_text": "Odell calls a Bitcoin market bottom, saying the bottom appears to be in 'in a big way' with BTC around $73,000.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://assets.podhome.fm/8029725b-0319-44b9-4793-08dc404e83a4/transcript_489ca7d9-9a93-4ea4-9c0d-9ee82366f385639082523774195719.html", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "It seems like the bottom is in in a big way. Bitcoin is currently at $73,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Forward-looking first-party bottom/direction call by the host; resolve by whether BTC held above this level going forward." } ] }, { "id": "matthew-mezinskis", "name": "Matthew MeΕΎinskis", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 40, "score_adj": 31.1, "avg_specificity": 66, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 5, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 3, "partial": 0, "pending": 3 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "The overall power-trend value for Bitcoin will be ~$125k by the end of the year (2025).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 125000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-03", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/IDnmF5znJM4lvmsG1zxm/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "it'll be a little bit higher of 60 59 000 right the trend itself the overall trend will be 125k uh and then getting in the 90th percentile which whether you do it a two different a couple different metrics. I think you get like 200k or 250k.", "timestamp": "0:11:52", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $94,641 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $125,000." }, { "claim_text": "With pretty high confidence Bitcoin is going to reach about $550,000 (550), maybe even higher, off the back of another boom pulling the power-trend back up.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 550000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-03-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/NbYFSx3sz3emDOxDnOIh/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "But all it takes is another boom to pull the trend back up with pretty high confidence. We're going to be at 550, maybe even higher.", "timestamp": "0:00:00", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-05); 2030-03-05 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Base case from the power trend: 2x to 3x the year-end trend (trend ~125k) by end of 2025 or the first couple months of 2026, i.e. roughly $250k to $375k Bitcoin.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2026-02-28", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-03", "specificity": 74, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/tEj325QGXn8nIhsmwMZe/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "base case, what I'm thinking, two to three X, the trend by the end of the year or the first couple of months in the next year. That's 250K to 375K.", "timestamp": "0:24:57", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$250k–$375k band by end-Feb 2026 never reached; high by deadline was only $126,296, well short of the predicted range." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin does not get above the 80th percentile of the power trend (1.3x the trend, ~170k) by year end or the first couple months of next year, that would be reason to reconsider the four-year cycle.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 170000, "deadline": "2026-02-28", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-03", "specificity": 74, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/tEj325QGXn8nIhsmwMZe/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "if it doesn't get above the 80th percentile, which by the way, is 1.3x the trend. And if we look at the end of 2025, the trend is 125k. So 1.3x is 170k. So if we don't get above 170k by year end, or into like the first couple months of next year, then I would say, okay time to rethink the idea of the four-year cycles", "timestamp": "0:19:40", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-02-28 horizon; never reached $170,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will be worth millions of dollars in today's terms on the low end over the coming decades.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2023-04-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/SLP473-Why-Bitcoiners-Must-Focus-on-Bottom-Up-Adoption-with-Matthew-Mezinskis-e22jso6", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "it's going to be something like millions of dollars in today's terms, you know, on the low end, right? That's on the low end. So that's kind of how I'm seeing that aspect of it.", "timestamp": "0:48:15", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-04-18); 2028-04-18 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The four-year cycle is not broken and remains completely intact; in 2026 (the first year of the new cycle) Bitcoin is well below the power trend, consistent with the cycle continuing rather than a new ETF-driven regime.", "claim_type": "cycle", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-05", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/NbYFSx3sz3emDOxDnOIh/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "We're in 2026 here, and we're well below the power trend. So in my opinion, actually, the four-year cycle is completely intact, hasn't broken.", "timestamp": "0:20:02", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Directional cycle thesis about the structure of the cycle, not a dated price level. As of 2026-06-20 BTC ~$63,556 is below the prior ATH ($126,296, 2025-10-06) and in a drawdown (low $59,073 on 2026-06-05), consistent with a post-peak down-leg, but the four-year-cycle claim has no resolvable threshold/date so it remains pending." }, { "claim_text": "Worst-case/lowest expected Bitcoin level by the end of 2025 (year-end) is around $57,000-$60,000 (power-curve lowest historical percentile), with the model trend itself at ~$125K.", "claim_type": "price_floor", "threshold_usd": 57000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-03", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/IDnmF5znJM4lvmsG1zxm/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "right now that suggests a lowest lowest level of 57 000 bitcoin by the end of the year it'll be a little bit higher of 60 59 000 right the trend itself the overall trend will be 125k", "timestamp": "0:11:09", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's low was $84,400, held at/above $57,000 (through 2025-12-31)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is not going to a million dollars tomorrow / in the near term; the power curve shows this stuff can go on much longer than people think, an evolution not a supernova.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-12", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/P3TxuaB3wpgGdTU9uMyE/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitcoin's not going to a million dollars tomorrow. Enjoy it. It's a great asset to protect you from your wealth.", "timestamp": "0:08:30", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Guest's call is that BTC will NOT reach $1M in the near term, framed as a slow multi-year evolution. As of 2026-06-20 BTC is ~$63,556 and has never been within an order of magnitude of $1M. The near-term anti-$1M timing call is correct." } ] }, { "id": "matthew-sigel", "name": "Matthew Sigel", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 24, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 2, "partial": 0, "pending": 5 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Matthew Siegel of VanEck predicts Bitcoin will reach $1 million over the next several years, possibly within five years.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2031", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Can-Bitcoin-Hit-1-Million---Anthony-Pompliano-e3j7h97", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitcoin going up for us is the base case. We think this asset is going to reach a million dollars over the next several years... Maybe half a decade, I think, is possible.", "timestamp": "0:04:47", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,379 since 2026-05-11); 2031-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Matthew Siegel of VanEck predicts Bitcoin will reach $1 million over the next several years, possibly within five years.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2031", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Can-Bitcoin-Hit-1-Million---Anthony-Pompliano-e3j7h97", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitcoin going up for us is the base case. We think this asset is going to reach a million dollars over the next several years... Maybe half a decade, I think, is possible.", "timestamp": "0:04:47", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,379 since 2026-05-11); 2031-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Sigel's base case is that this cycle's blow-off top takes Bitcoin to roughly $180K (a 10x off the trough), with the second half of this year very positive.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 180000, "deadline": "2025", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-06-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/gEPwTwWPYxzFfSRy3RQj/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "The previous smallest cycle ever for Bitcoin was 20x from the trough to the peak. So a 10x would put us around 180K. And that seems feasible to me... it doesn't seem crazy to haircut the rally by 50% and say 10X to 180. That's the blow off top and then reevaluate for next year.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $180,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will see upside to around $180,000 this cycle, likely happening in 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 180000, "deadline": "2025", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/matthew-sigel-on-vanecks-top-bitcoin-predictions-180k-bitcoin-in-2025-on-path-to-3-million-per-coin", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitcoin troughed around 18,000. So I see an upside to 180,000 this cycle. And I think that's likely to happen next year. So my base case is something around 180K for next year.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $180,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach roughly $450,000 per coin sometime after the next halving.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 450000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2024-12-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/matthew-sigel-on-vanecks-top-bitcoin-predictions-180k-bitcoin-in-2025-on-path-to-3-million-per-coin", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "About 50% of gold is used for industrial or jewelry purposes. So cut gold's market cap in half. And maybe that's our target for Bitcoin for the next cycle. That would imply roughly 450,000 per coin sometime after the next halving.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-12-16); 2027-06-16 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $3 million per coin by 2050 in VanEck's long-term model.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 3000000, "deadline": "2050", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/matthew-sigel-on-vanecks-top-bitcoin-predictions-180k-bitcoin-in-2025-on-path-to-3-million-per-coin", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And we get to $3 million a coin by 2050, which would be about a 16% compound annual growth rate.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-12-16); 2050-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The Bitcoin four-year cycle will remain but play out in a more muted fashion going forward.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-20", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Bitcoin-Stock-Risks--The-End-of-The-4-Year-Cycle---Matthew-Sigel-e372bb4", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Is it a four-year cycle over or do you think that it will remain? I lean towards remain, but in a more muted fashion. So that's kind of a wishy-washy answer, but it's been around for so long, I'm going to give it the benefit of the doubt.", "timestamp": "0:01:46", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Commits to the Bitcoin 4-year halving cycle persisting, though with dampened amplitude compared to prior cycles." } ] }, { "id": "mauricio-di-bartolomeo", "name": "Mauricio Di Bartolomeo", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Given the price action he's seeing in the low 60s, Mauricio thinks it is unlikely Bitcoin drops into the $40,000s.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-07-01", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/mauricio-di-bartolomeo-launching-gold-loans-the-40k-bitcoin-debate-and-ledns-sp-bitcoin-bond", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "the behavior that I've seen and the price action that I've seen at 60s makes me think that it is rather unlikely that we're going to go test the 40s. I'm not saying that it can't happen. But I see a lot of people like taking it as almost a given that we're going to go into the 40s and they're just waiting to buy the dip at 40.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $50,000 (through 2026-07-01)." }, { "claim_text": "Mauricio expects a more resilient summer than people anticipate and some bounce-back, resolving to the upside sometime in the fall.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-07-01", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/mauricio-di-bartolomeo-launching-gold-loans-the-40k-bitcoin-debate-and-ledns-sp-bitcoin-bond", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think we're going to have a more resilient summer than people expect. And I do expect to see some type of bounce back... But I, again, I think we're going to see a resilient summer. And I think this results to the upside sometime in the fall.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Resolves true if BTC is higher (upside bounce) by fall 2026 versus the ~$60k level at the time; false if it trends lower into the fall." } ] }, { "id": "max-hillebrand", "name": "Max Hillebrand", "handles": { "x": "@HillebrandMax", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "developer", "privacy-advocate", "austrian-economics" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 0, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitter.com/HillebrandMax" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [] }, { "id": "max-keiser", "name": "Max Keiser", "handles": { "x": "@maxkeiser", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "" }, "category": [ "broadcaster", "bitcoin-maximalist", "el-salvador-advisor" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 670700, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://www.speakrj.com/audit/report/realmaxkeiser/twitter" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 39, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 11, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 11, "partial": 0, "pending": 4 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's 2021 target of $220,000 comes into focus as hash rate hits new highs (hashrate-adjusted price thesis).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 220000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-01-06", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://coingape.com/max-keiser-bitcoin-btc-to-hit-220000-in-2021-as-per-hash-rate-adjustments/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "$36,000 BTC was the hashrate-adjusted-price I flagged last summer (Hashrate leads price) With HR hitting new highs; 2021 target of $220,000 comes into focus", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $220,000." }, { "claim_text": "Keiser pushed his $220,000 Bitcoin price target to 2022, saying all of Bitcoin's fundamentals are screaming higher (hash rate precedes price).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 220000, "deadline": "2022-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-01-03", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptoadventure.com/max-keiser-bitcoin-to-220k-by-end-of-2022/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Keiser stated he was 'pushing' his $220,000 price target to 2022, saying that all of Bitcoin's fundamentals are 'screaming higher.'", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $48,240 through the 2022-12-31 horizon; never reached $220,000." }, { "claim_text": "Mid-2022, despite the sell-off, Keiser maintained Bitcoin could still touch the $220,000 threshold in 2022.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 220000, "deadline": "2022-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-06-20", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/news/bitcoin-has-high-odds-of-testing-220000-in-2022-says-max-keiser/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Keiser claimed that Bitcoin (BTC) could still touch the $220,000 threshold in 2022 despite the recent sell-off witnessed in the cryptocurrency sphere.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $25,215 through the 2022-12-31 horizon; never reached $220,000." }, { "claim_text": "The new all-time-high gold price is predicting Bitcoin will trade over $220,000 very soon.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 220000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2024-10-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coingape.com/markets/why-max-keiser-predicts-bitcoin-price-will-hit-220000-soon/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The new ATH Gold price is predicting Bitcoin will trade over $220,000 very soon.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $123,231 through the 2025-07-18 horizon; never reached $220,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin up 700% since this interview 2 years ago (and $220,000 in 2025 looks likely).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 220000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-12", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-legend-max-keiser-predicts-btc-to-hit-220k-in-2025/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin up 700% since this interview 2 years ago (and $220,000 in 2025 looks likely)", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $220,000." }, { "claim_text": "When Bitcoin reaches $200,000, central banks and countries will start panicking as over 500 million people declare their independence.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2025-07-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/07/03/500m-people-will-declare-their-independence-when-bitcoin-hits-200000-max-keiser/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "central banks and countries will start panicking as over 500 million people declare their independence", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-07-02); 2027-07-02 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "They want to lower rates so they can ramp this to $5 trillion. BITCOIN $2,200,000 incoming.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 2200000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2025-08-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/btc-to-2200000-max-keiser-bitcoin-price-prediction-2025-revealed", "source_type": "article", "quote": "They want to lower rates so they can ramp this to $5 trillion. BITCOIN $2,200,000 incoming.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-05-16 horizon; never reached $2,200,000." }, { "claim_text": "Global hash war 'will send bitcoin to $500K' (Keiser sharing his Asia Times call).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2021-12-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/maxkeiser/status/1466536684250611715", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I coined the phrase β€˜Global Hash War’ β€˜Global Hash Race’ #Bitcoin’s global game theoretical battles JUST BEGINNING. \n\nMax Keiser: β€œGlobal hash war 'will send bitcoin to $500K' - Asia Times https://t.co/PagSZkEECE", "timestamp": "2021-12-02T22:36:07.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-02 horizon; never reached $500,000." }, { "claim_text": "Keiser's 2023 predictions: Bitcoin will reach $100k.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2023-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-12-31", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/maxkeiser/status/1609180426207375361", "source_type": "x", "quote": "My 2023 predictions on #Bitcoin\n\nβ€’Will reach $100k\nβ€’2 more countries will adopt it as legal tender\nβ€’Will become a major electoral issue in US elections this year\nβ€’Bitcoin City will commence construction\nβ€’Volcano bonds will be oversubscribed\nβ€’Huge surprise at @TheBitcoinConf https://t.co/U7hvS8Ieix", "timestamp": "2022-12-31T13:31:25.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $45,000 through the 2023-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "New all-time high for Bitcoin in 2023. 'Are you ready?'", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2023-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-12-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/maxkeiser/status/1599433696670470144", "source_type": "x", "quote": "New ATH for #Bitcoin in 2023. \n\nAre you ready? https://t.co/B5hddzAEg1", "timestamp": "2022-12-04T16:01:23.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted new ATH in 2023 (prior ATH ~$69k); high by 2023-12-31 was only $45,000 β€” no new all-time high that year." }, { "claim_text": "The mainstream financial media missed the move from $1 to $44,500 and they'll also miss the move to $400,000 (hash precedes price).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 400000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2023-12-28", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/maxkeiser/status/1740316662539374964", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I don’t look at price, I look at hash. Hash precedes price. Miners are the significant risk-takers, not the speculators. The mainstream financial media only looks at price, so they missed the entire #Bitcoin move from $1 to $44,500. They’ll also miss the move to $400,000 https://t.co/e7G3gEwOdn", "timestamp": "2023-12-28T10:20:00.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-12-28); 2027-12-28 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Keiser raises his Bitcoin price target from $220,000 to $2,200,000 (the originating Dec-2024 announcement of the $2.2M target).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 2200000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2024-12-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/maxkeiser/status/1865552947725447440", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I’m raising my target price for Bitcoin from $220,000 to $2,200,000 \n\n@saylor’s speculative attack on the $20 trillion global Gold market has a very high probability of success. \n\n$MSFT leveraging the $200 trillion global fixed income market to β€˜Rug pull’ Gold is happening‼️ https://t.co/U9qv2H1zMD", "timestamp": "2024-12-08T00:24:17.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-12-08); 2030-12-08 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "New Bitcoin all-time high in 2025 is in play (distribution done, accumulation begins again).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-22", "specificity": 54, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/maxkeiser/status/1992334689227735163", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Distribution done, accumulation begins again. New BTC ATH in 2025 in play.", "timestamp": "2025-11-22T20:49:40.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "New ATH in 2025 claim (made 2025-11-22 at $84,684); high by 2025-12-31 was $94,641, below the ~$126k ATH β€” no new ATH." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's price will continue outpacing all other assets.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-18", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/maxkeiser/status/2024068642921418798", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin's price will continue outpacing everything but the promise of freedom from centralized autocrats isn't resonating.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said BTC would keep outpacing everything (2026-02-18 at $66,420); BTC has since fallen to $58,161, underperforming, not outpacing." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will move to his interim target of $220,000 once the Fed pivots.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 220000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-11-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/maxkeiser/status/1593641918168178691", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Once pivot's engaged and Fed quits QT (because you can't taper a Ponzi) the decks will be clear for a clean, uninterrupted move for #Bitcoin to my interim target of $220,000", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2022-11-18); 2028-11-18 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "max-tannahill", "name": "Max Tannahill", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 24, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach about $80,000 one year from now (by early 2022).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": "2022", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-01-20", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://assets.podhome.fm/8029725b-0319-44b9-4793-08dc404e83a4/transcript_c5c59036-7603-4c3d-a601-5c8f09a8f5c1638462900752024831.html", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Max, this time next year, price prediction... Yeah. I'll go for 80 k next year. 80,000.", "timestamp": "2:28:42", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2022-12-31 horizon; never reached $80,000." } ] }, { "id": "mel-mattison", "name": "Mel Mattison", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 46, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 11, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 11, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin reaches $150K by the end of the year (2025), as a base-case target.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-06-16", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/55zTTDXhDLDI6LqAVYIv/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "You know, we've broken over the high set, you know, a few months ago. I think that's now clearly, you know, a floor, you know, support. And, you know, I think the next upside target for me has always been that 150 range, which I think, you know, I've been thinking 120 this month. 150 is my call by the end of the year. But really, that's like a base case based on technical analysis I do that that is is a point where I reassess. And when I reassess it, I have a feeling like I'm", "timestamp": "0:02:27", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000." }, { "claim_text": "The recent breakout high (~$110K) is now clearly a floor/support level for Bitcoin.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 110000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2025-06-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/55zTTDXhDLDI6LqAVYIv/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think this this is a big move. You know, people are going to look back at 110,000 Bitcoin, just like they look back at 50,000 Bitcoin or 30,000 Bitcoin and say, man, I should have been buying there. You know, we've broken over the high set, you know, a few months ago. I think that's now clearly, you know, a flo", "timestamp": "0:02:03", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-06-16..2026-07-01], below the $110,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will outperform gold in 2026, and crypto/Bitcoin will be strong this year (especially Q1 and Q2), delivering an excellent return after 2025's consolidation.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-07", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/m3Vxu8C64BspWqdZlmbP/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think crypto is going to be amazing. I think Bitcoin is going to be outperform gold this year. ... this first and second quarter of this year are going to be incredible. ... this year it's going to have an excellent return.", "timestamp": "0:07:09", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted strong Q1/Q2 2026 and excellent return; by 2026-06-30 BTC fell from $91,280 to $58,161, a poor H1 outcome over the elapsed window." }, { "claim_text": "Three months from now Bitcoin will have hit 140 (i.e. ~$140k) while SPX is around 6,800.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 140000, "deadline": "2025-12-06", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-06", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/np7LV1xFEzSECaO2eooX/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And three months from now, we'll come back and it'll be, you know, Bitcoin will be like, I've hit 140 and, you know, SPX will be at 6,800.", "timestamp": "0:01:30", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-06 horizon; never reached $140,000." }, { "claim_text": "A year from now Bitcoin will be over 150 (i.e. above ~$150k), with S&P over 7,000 and gold over 4,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2026-09-06", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-06", "specificity": 70, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/np7LV1xFEzSECaO2eooX/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "a year from now we're going to be at an S&P over 7,000 we're going to be at Bitcoin over 150 we're going to be at gold over 4,000", "timestamp": "0:02:30", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-09-06); 2026-09-06 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "After reaching 150 he expects to quickly set a next upside target around 190-195.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 190000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2025-06-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/55zTTDXhDLDI6LqAVYIv/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "When I reassess it, I have a feeling like I'm going to pretty quickly come out with the target around the one ninety one ninety five as like a next upside target.", "timestamp": "0:02:54", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-03-16 horizon; never reached $190,000." }, { "claim_text": "110,000 is now clearly a floor/support; people will look back at 110k Bitcoin like they look back at 50k or 30k.", "claim_type": "price_floor", "threshold_usd": 110000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-06-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/55zTTDXhDLDI6LqAVYIv/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "People are going to look back at 110,000 Bitcoin, just like they look back at 50,000 Bitcoin or 30,000 Bitcoin and say, man, I should have been buying there. You know, we've broken over the high set, you know, a few months ago. I think that's now clearly, you know, a floor, you know, support.", "timestamp": "0:02:03", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $59,073 in [2025-06-16..2026-06-16], below the $110,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Mel Mattison predicts Bitcoin will hit $150,000 by the end of February 2026, representing a roughly 50% move from the ~$98K level at the time of recording.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2026-02-28", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-06", "specificity": 74, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Bitcoins-Next-50-Move-Why-the-Bottom-Is-In--Mel-Mattison-e3ajvs3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think Bitcoin is setting up literally for a 50 percent move by the end of February. And so we were at 98,000 today. A 50 percent move gets us to a little under 150, actually. I think we can hit 150 in February.", "timestamp": "0:13:41", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $107,482 through the 2026-02-28 horizon; never reached $150,000." }, { "claim_text": "Mel Mattison predicts Bitcoin will hit $140,000 by the end of 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 140000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-06", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Bitcoins-Next-50-Move-Why-the-Bottom-Is-In--Mel-Mattison-e3ajvs3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think we can still hit 140 by the end of the year.", "timestamp": "0:14:05", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $107,482 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $140,000." }, { "claim_text": "Mel Mattison predicts that if Bitcoin touches $98,000 it will not stay there long (a few days) before bouncing back to $108,000 and higher.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 98000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2025-11-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Bitcoins-Next-50-Move-Why-the-Bottom-Is-In--Mel-Mattison-e3ajvs3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "if we do hit 98,000, it's probably not going to be there long, probably a few days. And it's going to be back to 108 and start working its way back up.", "timestamp": "0:12:15", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-11-06..2026-07-01], below the $98,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Mel Mattison reaffirms his $150K year-end Bitcoin call but now expects it may slip to end of January 2026 rather than December 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2026-01-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-24", "specificity": 74, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Shocking-Data-Shows-Bitcoin-To-Go-MUCH-Higher--Mel-Mattison-e3a0f99", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "$150 has been my call by the end of the year on Bitcoin, it's possible. But I'm now thinking that while $150 is where we're heading, it might not hit that until the end of January.", "timestamp": "0:08:30", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $116,410 through the 2026-01-31 horizon; never reached $150,000." }, { "claim_text": "Mel Mattison predicts Bitcoin is the asset class most likely to absorb the next marginal dollar of capital as gold and stocks consolidate, pointing to a bullish directional move over the next four to eight months.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-24", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Shocking-Data-Shows-Bitcoin-To-Go-MUCH-Higher--Mel-Mattison-e3a0f99", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "So what's the asset class that's left to absorb that marginal dollar of capital? I think it's going to be Bitcoin. When I look at my trend work and my channels on Bitcoin, I do think and 150 has been my call by the end of the year on Bitcoin.", "timestamp": "0:02:09", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bullish 4–8 month directional move toward $150k from $111,042 (2025-10-24); window elapsed with BTC falling to $58,161, the opposite move." } ] }, { "id": "michael-howell", "name": "Michael Howell", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 100, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "With global liquidity momentum having peaked and the cycle likely to head further down, Bitcoin is at risk of falling more in the near term and can be bought cheaper than its current ~$67k level.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-25", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/nTxEjycsLunR8pnOT0SL/files/VIDEO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "If you think liquidity is weakening significantly, and I think there's a real risk that that cycle is going to head downwards further, then you've got a risk that Bitcoin is going to fall more. And that's an unfortunate feature. It'd still be a long-term buyer, even at these levels. But I still think that you can pick it up cheaper.", "timestamp": "0:17:34", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted BTC at risk of falling more and buyable cheaper than ~$67k; it fell to $58,000 from $67,993 and is at $58,161 as of 2026-06-30." } ] }, { "id": "michael-saylor", "name": "Michael Saylor", "handles": { "x": "@saylor", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "strategy.com" }, "category": [ "executive", "perma-bull" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 5080000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitterscore.io/twitter/saylor/" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": 50, "avg_specificity": 78, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 29 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "At the Bitcoin 2024 conference, Saylor raised his long-term Bitcoin forecast, calling for a base case of $13 million per coin by 2045 (a $280 trillion market cap, ~7% of global wealth), an upside bull case of $49 million, and a downside bear case of $3 million. The base case implies a ~29% annual rate of return.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 13000000, "deadline": "2045-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-07-26", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/07/26/bitcoin-to-account-for-7-of-global-wealth-be-worth-13m-in-21-years-michael-saylor/amp/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "bitcoin's price rising to $13 million by 2045 ... would require an annual rate of return of 29% ... bitcoin would have a market cap of $280 trillion and account for 7% of global wealth ... bull case ... bitcoin could be worth as much as $49 million and account for 22% of global wealth ... bear case ... a value of $3 million and 2% of global wealth", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-07-26); 2045-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Speaking at BTC Prague 2025, Saylor raised his long-term target, saying Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin in 21 years (i.e. by ~2046), up from his prior $13 million-by-2045 forecast.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 21000000, "deadline": "2046-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-06-21", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://zycrypto.com/why-michael-saylor-is-confident-bitcoin-will-rise-to-21-million-by-2046/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I think we're going to be $21 million in 21 years. It's a very special time in the network.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-06-21); 2046-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "At the MarketWatch 'Best New Ideas in Money' Festival, Saylor said Bitcoin could return to ~$65,000 (its prior high) within four years and reach $500,000 within the next decade (i.e. by ~2032), framing Bitcoin as digital gold set to overtake gold's market cap.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": "2032-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-09-22", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://coinjournal.net/news/bitcoin-could-hit-500000-in-the-next-decade-microstrategys-michael-saylor-says/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The next logical step for bitcoin is to replace gold as a non-sovereign store of value asset.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2022-09-22); 2032-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "In a CNBC interview, Saylor predicted Bitcoin would cross $100,000 before the end of 2024, saying he was planning a '$100,000 party' for New Year's Eve and would be surprised if BTC did not break $100k in November or December.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-14", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/michael-saylor-predicts-bitcoin-will-hit-100000-by-year-end", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "I'm planning the $100,000 party, and I'm thinking that it's probably going to be New Year's Eve at my house. So, I will be surprised if we don't go through $100,000 in November or December.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2024-11-14..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Speaking to CNBC at the Money 20/20 conference in Las Vegas, Saylor said his expectation was that Bitcoin would be about $150,000 by the end of 2025, citing the consensus of equity analysts covering Strategy and the Bitcoin industry.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-28", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-michael-saylors-end-bitcoin-151605535.html", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "Our expectation right now is that by the end of the year, it should be about $150,000, and that's the consensus of the equity analysts who cover our company and the Bitcoin industry.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $116,114 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000." }, { "claim_text": "In the same Money 20/20 / CNBC remarks (Oct 2025), Saylor said he didn't see why Bitcoin wouldn't 'grind up to a million dollars a coin over the next four to eight years' (i.e. by roughly 2029-2033).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2033-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-28", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.mitrade.com/au/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1231648-20251030", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "I don't know why it won't grind up to a million dollars a coin over the next four to eight years.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $116,114 since 2025-10-28); 2033-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "In the same Money 20/20 / CNBC remarks (Oct 2025), Saylor reiterated his long-term forecast of ~30% annual appreciation for 20 years, putting Bitcoin on a path toward $20 million per coin (i.e. by ~2045).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 20000000, "deadline": "2045-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-28", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.mitrade.com/au/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1231648-20251030", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "My long-term forecast is that it goes up about 30% a year for the next 20 years, and we're headed towards $20 million Bitcoin.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $116,114 since 2025-10-28); 2045-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Amid a February 2026 market drawdown (BTC ~$67-68k), Saylor posted a binary all-or-nothing directional call on X: if Bitcoin is not going to zero, it is going to a million dollars per coin.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-20", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/26/02/50757976/michael-saylor-if-bitcoins-not-going-to-zero-its-going-to-a-million", "source_type": "x", "quote": "If Bitcoin's Not Going To Zero, It's Going To A Million", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended 'not zero then a million' call with no deadline; BTC at $58,161 is nowhere near $1M and the long/indefinite horizon has not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "On X, Saylor posted his binary all-or-nothing directional thesis: if Bitcoin is not going to zero then it is going to a million. This is the earliest dated X instance of the call (BTC was ~$30k at the time), later repeated in Feb 2026.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-06-08", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/saylor/status/1534349567600345090", "source_type": "x", "quote": "If #bitcoin is not going to zero then it’s going to a million.", "timestamp": "2022-06-08T01:40:18.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "2022 'not zero then a million' call; despite peaking at $126,296, BTC remains far from $1M and the open-ended horizon has not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "On X, Saylor declared a regime change for Bitcoin: 'Bitcoin has won... The four-year cycle is dead. Price is now driven by capital flows. Bank and digital credit will determine Bitcoin's growth trajectory.' A timing/regime call that the classic four-year halving cycle no longer governs BTC price.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/saylor/status/2040438683380146574", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin has won. Global consensus is that $BTC is digital capital. The four-year cycle is dead. Price is now driven by capital flows. Bank and digital credit will determine Bitcoin’s growth trajectory. The biggest risk is bad ideas driving iatrogenic protocol changes.", "timestamp": "2026-04-04T14:37:46.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Regime/timing claim that the four-year cycle is dead has no deadline and is a long-horizon thesis that remains undetermined as of 2026-06-30." }, { "claim_text": "2026 is going to be a great year for Bitcoin.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-12", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/xy2xSANtwweSkZlOdNZ3/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think 2026 is going to be a great year for Bitcoin.", "timestamp": "0:15:18", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "2026-good-year call (deadline 2026-12-31) window not elapsed; BTC has fallen from $91,188 to $58,161 but a year-end recovery remains possible." }, { "claim_text": "Michael Saylor forecasts Bitcoin will appreciate approximately 29% per year for the next 21 years.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2046", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-19", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/michael-saylor-fixing-broken-credit-markets-with-bitcoin", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitcoin is going up faster than the S and P forever. And my forecast is depreciates about 29% a year for the next 21 years.", "timestamp": "0:18:14", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "~29%/yr over 21 years to 2046; the multi-decade window is wide open and undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Michael Saylor believes one Bitcoin will be worth $13 million by the year 2045.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 13000000, "deadline": "2045", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/michael-saylor-100x-return-strategy-bitcoin-price-action-vs-markets-tariff-panic-the-btc-corporate-treasury-revolution", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "You have to think in the year 2045, I think a Bitcoin's worth $13 million. So every Bitcoin that you don't buy is a $13 million cost.", "timestamp": "0:00:00", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-05-08); 2045-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "By end of year, the AI capital-rotation cycle will conclude and capital will rotate back into Bitcoin, reversing the bear market trend.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-22", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Will-The-Bitcoin-Bear-Market-Ever-End---Anthony-Pompliano-e3l4rov", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think by the end of the year, we'll have gotten through that AI summer, you know, suction activity. And, you know, just like Austrian economists would say, if the price of Bitcoin falls, that makes Bitcoin more appealing.", "timestamp": "0:01:27", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "By-end-2026 capital rotation/bear-reversal call; deadline not elapsed and BTC has slipped from $63,951 to $58,161 so far, undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Michael Saylor projects Bitcoin will be worth $1 million per coin in approximately 10 years.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2036", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Burry-Says-CRASH--Saylor-Says-1M-BITCOIN-Whos-Right---Bitcoin-Simply-e3j9l5l", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "But that is so many years in the future. And that is when Bitcoin's a million dollars coin and we're 10 years out and then we can talk about it.", "timestamp": "0:07:11", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,066 since 2026-05-13); 2036-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Michael Saylor predicts a massive Bitcoin supply shock as $20–$100 billion in credit formation chases only $10 billion of available Bitcoin in the next 12 months, setting up a rally.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2027-05-01", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-01", "specificity": 46, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/100B-in-Capital-Going-After-10B-in-Bitcoin--The-Rally-Is-Coming---Bitcoin-Simply-e3ip3va", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think the formation of, you're talking about between $20 and $100 billion worth of credit formation in the next 12 months. And there's only $10 billion of Bitcoin naturally available for sale. So I think that we're setting up a massive supply shock. There ought to be a rally in BTC.", "timestamp": "0:11:45", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Supply-shock rally over next 12 months (deadline 2027-05-01) window open; BTC fell from $78,234 to $58,161 with no rally yet but time remains." }, { "claim_text": "Saylor predicts a massive Bitcoin supply shock and rally driven by $20–$100 billion in new credit formation over the next 12 months against only $10 billion of naturally available supply.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2027-04-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-30", "specificity": 36, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/The-Fed-Regime-Change-That-Sets-Off-Bitcoins-Biggest-Rally-Ever---Truth-Block-e3innki", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "You're talking about between $20 and $100 billion worth of credit formation in the next 12 months. And there's only $10 billion of Bitcoin naturally available for sale. So I think that we're setting up a massive supply shock. There ought to be a rally in BTC.", "timestamp": "0:16:01", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Same 12-month supply-shock rally call (deadline 2027-04-30) window open; BTC down from $76,306 to $58,161, no rally yet but undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Saylor predicts a Bitcoin rally driven by an engineered supply shock, with $20–$100 billion in new credit formation over 12 months overwhelming the $10 billion of naturally available Bitcoin supply.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2027-04-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-30", "specificity": 36, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Be-SCARED-If-You-Dont-Own-Bitcoin--Michael-Saylors-10M-ENDGAME-is-Here--Simply-Originals-e3im6l7", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "You're talking about between 20 and 100 billion dollars worth of credit formation in the next 12 months. And there's only 10 billion dollars of Bitcoin naturally available for sale. So I think that we're setting up a massive supply shock. There ought to be a rally in BTC.", "timestamp": "0:01:22", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Same engineered supply-shock rally over 12 months (deadline 2027-04-30) window open; BTC down from $76,306 to $58,161, undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Saylor's long-run endgame target is $10 million per Bitcoin as the asset becomes a $200 trillion network.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-04-30", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Be-SCARED-If-You-Dont-Own-Bitcoin--Michael-Saylors-10M-ENDGAME-is-Here--Simply-Originals-e3im6l7", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Drive Bitcoin to $10 million a coin. Bitcoin and make Bitcoin a $200 trillion network until it grows higher.", "timestamp": "0:07:32", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-30); 2032-04-28 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Saylor predicts Bitcoin will eventually reach $20–$21 million per coin as it emerges as the dominant digital capital of the world.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 20000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-04-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Saylor-Just-DESTROYED-The-Bitcoin-Bear-Market--Why-is-the-US-Treasury-PANICKING---Simply-Originals-e3igudi", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Oh, I think eventually it's going to $20 million, $21 million a coin. $21 million a coin. I think it's going to emerge as the dominant digital capital of the world.", "timestamp": "0:01:33", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-27); 2031-04-27 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Saylor predicts Bitcoin will reach $15 million per coin if digital credit markets capture 5% of the $300 trillion global credit market over roughly 20 years.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 15000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-04-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Saylor-Just-DESTROYED-The-Bitcoin-Bear-Market--Why-is-the-US-Treasury-PANICKING---Simply-Originals-e3igudi", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And if we raise $30 trillion and buy $30 trillion of Bitcoin, Bitcoin is going to be worth $300 trillion. And Bitcoin is going to $15 million a coin.", "timestamp": "0:05:22", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-27); 2032-04-27 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Michael Saylor says Bitcoin is currently oversold and expects it will be much higher by the end of the year.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-14", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Michael-Saylor-Predicts-400T-Bitcoin-After-Buying-1B-in-a-Single-Day---Bitcoin-Simply-e3htt71", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think, where are we right now? I think it's oversold. So I would expect that Bitcoin will be much higher by the end of the year.", "timestamp": "0:01:56", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Oversold, much-higher-by-end-2026 call (deadline 2026) window not elapsed; BTC currently $58,161, below the $74,179 made-price, undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Michael Saylor predicts Bitcoin will reach $20–21 million per coin over a 21-year horizon, implying a ~$400 trillion market cap.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 20000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-04-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Michael-Saylor-Predicts-400T-Bitcoin-After-Buying-1B-in-a-Single-Day---Bitcoin-Simply-e3htt71", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think eventually it's going to 20 million, 21 million a coin. 21 million a coin. Okay. So what's that? Like a market cap of like 400 trillion, something like this? 400 trillion.", "timestamp": "0:02:14", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-14); 2031-04-14 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Saylor implies Bitcoin will reach $1 million per coin, telling Dave Portnoy he can still buy below that level.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2024-12-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/saylor/status/1864695324557574541", "source_type": "x", "quote": "@stoolpresidente You can still buy #bitcoin for less than $1 million per coin, Dave.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-12-05); 2028-12-05 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Saylor reiterates his long-term view that Bitcoin can appreciate roughly 500x to around $20 million per coin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 20000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-06-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/michael-saylor-answering-the-critics-on-mnav-bitcoin-per-share-and-the-path-to-1-million", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And that will continue as long as we act rationally. So if you want it to 500 X, if you want $20 million Bitcoin, then.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $66,944 since 2026-06-16); 2032-06-16 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Saylor forecasts Bitcoin will deliver roughly a 25-30% annualized return on average over the next 20 years.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2044", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-08-07", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://assets.podhome.fm/8029725b-0319-44b9-4793-08dc404e83a4/transcript_bca172b2-6410-4510-8f05-af0895e216b7638584618398838293.html", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "my my forecast is on average the ARR is gonna be 25, 30% over the next 20 years. So if it if it goes to the worst case for me is it's gotta go up faster and perform better than the S and P index And if the S and P is 10 to 12 then Bitcoin is 20 to 22.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "25-30% annualized over 20 years to 2044; the multi-decade window is wide open and undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $13 million per coin by the year 2045.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 13000000, "deadline": "2045", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/michael-saylor-on-bitcoin-to-100k-the-crypto-renaissance-digital-capital-and-microstrategy-outperforming-everything", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "my forecast in July was it'll be 7% of the world's capital and grow 29% a year ARR for 21 years, it'll go to 13 million a coin by the year 2045. Probably, you would want to, you would be more bullish today, after November 5.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-11-18); 2045-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The four-year Bitcoin cycle is dead.", "claim_type": "cycle", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-12", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/xy2xSANtwweSkZlOdNZ3/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I mean, I think the four-year cycle is dead.", "timestamp": "0:11:04", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended cycle-structure claim with no horizon. As of 2026-06-20 BTC ~$63,556 with a 2026 drawdown low of $59,073 (2026-06-05), roughly 50% off the 2025-10-06 ATH of $126,296 about 8-9 months after the peak; resembles a classic post-peak bear leg, but a 'four-year cycle is dead' thesis cannot be confirmed or refuted on this timeframe." }, { "claim_text": "Michael Saylor predicts Bitcoin will reach approximately $13 million per coin by 2045.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 13000000, "deadline": "2045", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/matthew-mcclintock-will-1-bitcoin-mean-generational-wealth-price-drivers-and-legacy-planning-with-purpose", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Michael Saylor's predicting 13 million dollars or something by 2045.", "timestamp": "0:14:24", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-12-16); 2045-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Michael Saylor forecasted a Bitcoin price of $21 million in 21 years at his Prague keynote.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 21000000, "deadline": "2046", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-06-23", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/news-block-iran-tensions-escalate-bitcoin-reacts-to-war-and-inflation-trump-targets-the-fed-stablecoin-treasury-adoption-surge", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "he forecast a $21 million Bitcoin price in 21 years, which would make Strategy the most valuable company in the world.", "timestamp": "0:09:04", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-06-23); 2046-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Michael Saylor is predicting a Bitcoin price of $13 million per coin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 13000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-06-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/news-block-us-stablecoin-push-grows-bitcoin-touted-as-reserve-currency-steak-prices-expose-real-inflation-sec-backs-self-custody", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Because it's probably going to cost me that $13 million per Bitcoin that sailor is predicting.", "timestamp": "0:08:32", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-06-16); 2031-06-16 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "michael-van-de-poppe", "name": "MichaΓ«l van de Poppe", "handles": { "x": "@CryptoMichNL", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "trader", "analyst", "crypto-influencer" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 777600, "as_of": "2025-02-26", "source": "https://dailyhodl.com/2025/02/26/analyst-michael-van-de-poppe-unveils-ultimate-bottom-case-for-bitcoin-btc-heres-his-downside-target/" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": 45.7, "avg_specificity": 33, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 24, "counts": { "correct": 11, "wrong": 11, "partial": 2, "pending": 18 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "We're going to get into this range between $65,000 to $85,000. That is where I'm expecting us to be landing... at the end of 2021.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 65000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-01-02", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2021/01/02/crypto-analyst-michael-van-de-poppe-unveils-bitcoin-price-prediction-for-2021-updates-xrp-dot-chainlink-outlooks/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "[It's not unhealthy] that we're going to get into this range between $65,000 to $85,000. That is where I'm expecting us to be landing, which we're going to be at this stage at the end of 2021.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/2021id_/https://dailyhodl.com/2021/01/02/crypto-analyst-michael-van-de-poppe-unveils-bitcoin-price-prediction-for-2021-updates-xrp-dot-chainlink-outlooks/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $69,000 in [2021-01-02..2021-12-31], reaching the $65,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "During 2022, we are going to accelerate and have a run towards probably $200,000 to $300,000 and then we're topping out for this cycle.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2022-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-01-02", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2021/01/02/crypto-analyst-michael-van-de-poppe-unveils-bitcoin-price-prediction-for-2021-updates-xrp-dot-chainlink-outlooks/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "During 2022, we are going to accelerate and have a run towards probably $200,000 to $300,000 and then we're topping out for this cycle.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/2021id_/https://dailyhodl.com/2021/01/02/crypto-analyst-michael-van-de-poppe-unveils-bitcoin-price-prediction-for-2021-updates-xrp-dot-chainlink-outlooks/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2022-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "Peak high bull cycle prediction: Bitcoin to $350,000-$450,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 350000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2021-12-01", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/1466159168054706181", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Reminder, peak high bull cycle prediction; #Bitcoin to $350,000-450,000 #Ethereum to $10,000-17,500 #Polkadot to $250-350 ...", "timestamp": "2021-12-01T21:36:00Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $73,836 through the 2024-06-01 horizon; never reached $350,000." }, { "claim_text": "Within this year [2025], we're going to see Bitcoin breaking through $150,000 and stay there for a little while until we can start expanding into 2026.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-31", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2024/12/31/150000-bitcoin-incoming-in-2025-according-to-crypto-analyst-michael-van-de-poppe-heres-why/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "So I think that within this year, we're going to see Bitcoin breaking through $150,000 and stay there for a little while until we can start expanding into 2026.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/2025id_/https://dailyhodl.com/2024/12/31/150000-bitcoin-incoming-in-2025-according-to-crypto-analyst-michael-van-de-poppe-heres-why/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000." }, { "claim_text": "I do not expect Bitcoin to peak in 2025... the cycles are going to extend and they are more based on macro perspectives rather than the four-year cycle with halvings.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-31", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2024/12/31/150000-bitcoin-incoming-in-2025-according-to-crypto-analyst-michael-van-de-poppe-heres-why/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I do not expect Bitcoin to peak in 2025 because I expect that there's way more money needed to actually move Bitcoin upwards... That's why I think that the cycles are going to extend and they are more based on macro perspectives rather than the four-year cycle with halvings.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/2025id_/https://dailyhodl.com/2024/12/31/150000-bitcoin-incoming-in-2025-according-to-crypto-analyst-michael-van-de-poppe-heres-why/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted BTC would NOT peak in 2025; the 2025 high of $126,296 has been exceeded by no higher print and price fell to $58,161 by mid-2026, but the claim was about timing β€” peak did not occur within 2025 window as the deadline elapsed; price never made a new ATH peak confined to 2025 and the cycle clearly extended past it." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin needs to take all the liquidity. That's what we're currently doing. Ultimate bottom case? $83,000-87,000. Then we should be rotating upwards.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 83000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2025-02-26", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2025/02/26/analyst-michael-van-de-poppe-unveils-ultimate-bottom-case-for-bitcoin-btc-heres-his-downside-target/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin needs to take all the liquidity. That's what we're currently doing. Ultimate bottom case? $83,000-87,000. Then we should be rotating upwards.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/2025id_/https://dailyhodl.com/2025/02/26/analyst-michael-van-de-poppe-unveils-ultimate-bottom-case-for-bitcoin-btc-heres-his-downside-target/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $74,421 in [2025-02-26..2025-11-26], reaching the $83,000 downside target." }, { "claim_text": "I do believe that we'll see Bitcoin above $200,000-$250,000 this cycle. I don't think that the cycle is over. I think it barely started.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2025-03-01", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/03/44065728/crypto-analyst-predicts-195-bitcoin-rally-says-bull-market-not-over-yet", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I do believe that we'll see Bitcoin above $200,000-$250,000 this cycle. ... I don't think that the cycle is over. I think it barely started.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-03-01); 2027-09-01 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin to soar to an astonishing $500,000 in 2025, before an inevitable and sudden market crash (a 'crypto bubble' in 2025).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-07", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/breakingcrypto-2025-10-7-crypto-analyst-michal-van-de-poppe-sounds-alarm-500k-btc-20k-eth-and-10-20x-altcoins-before-a-2025-bubble-burst", "source_type": "article", "quote": "His latest pronouncements, made today, October 7, 2025, on X (formerly Twitter)... predicting a monumental 'crypto bubble' in 2025 that could see Bitcoin (BTC) soar to an astonishing $500,000, Ethereum (ETH) hit $20,000, and altcoins deliver 10-20x returns, all before an inevitable and sudden market crash.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $125,226 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $500,000." }, { "claim_text": "The current crypto cycle will not peak in the coming months and is expected to run substantially longer and higher; the traditional four-year cycle is over/history.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-25", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://blockchain.news/flashnews/2025-crypto-cycle-outlook-micha-l-van-de-poppe-says-bitcoin-btc-and-altcoins-face-longer-higher-run", "source_type": "x", "quote": "According to his tweet on August 25, 2025, this cycle will extend substantially longer and reach higher price levels than many anticipate, effectively rendering the traditional four-year cycle obsolete.", "timestamp": "2025-08-25", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claimed cycle would run substantially longer and higher and not peak in coming months; instead BTC topped at $126,296 shortly after (Aug 2025 spot $110,128) and crashed to $58,161 by mid-2026 β€” it peaked and declined, not extended higher." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin reclaims $65,000 and the 21-week MA, it will avoid a further cascade down and rally toward $79,000 over the summer.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 79000, "deadline": "2026-09", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-24", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2069761960334291404", "source_type": "x", "quote": "If these happen, we'll avoid another cascade down and have a great summer with upwards momentum all the way towards $79,000. If this won't happen in coming days", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $63,156 since 2026-06-24); 2026-09-28 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "If STRC continues falling with no bounce, Bitcoin will likely drop below $52,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 52000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-06-25", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2070144627441631580", "source_type": "x", "quote": "If $STRC has no appetite of bouncing back, we'll probably see <$52K (as mentioned earlier).\n\nIf it", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-25); 2027-06-25 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "If STRC bounces back strongly, Bitcoin will not revisit below $60,000 and will close the week above the 200-week MA.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": "2026-06-28", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-25", "specificity": 100, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2070090374018965825", "source_type": "x", "quote": "If that bounces back fiercely, I would assume that we won't revisit <$60K and close above the 200-Week MA this week.\n\nThat's the", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $58,000 in [2026-06-25..2026-06-28] β€” a minor break (within 3.3%) of the $60,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin breaks back above $62,500 it reclaims the 200-week MA, which is a crucial bullish trigger that could happen within 48 hours.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 62500, "deadline": "2026-06-29", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-27", "specificity": 100, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2070847112292732996", "source_type": "x", "quote": "If #Bitcoin manages to break back above $62,500, it's back above the 200-Week MA and that's a crucial trigger (this can happen fastly in the coming 48 hours as well).", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Needed a break above $62,500 within 48h (by 2026-06-29); high_by_deadline was only $60,839, so $62,500 was never reclaimed in the window." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin breaks back above $66,000 the probability of the cycle low being in increases and a rally to $80–85K in the following quarter becomes likely.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 85000, "deadline": "2026-09", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-21", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2068714558886150395", "source_type": "x", "quote": "If this happens again coming week, and we'll break back above $66,000, the chances of the low to be in and the markets ot rally back to $80-85K in the coming quarter has increased.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Conditioned on breaking above $66,000 then rallying to $80-85K by Q3; high_by_deadline only $65,553 (never broke $66K) and price fell to $58,161 β€” neither the trigger nor the target band was reached." }, { "claim_text": "Conditional on BTC holding the range support and fighting the 21-day MA, the next targets are $74,000 then $79,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 79000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-17", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2067180953198297282", "source_type": "x", "quote": "If that happens, the next targets are quite clear for me:\n- $74,000\n- $79,000\n\nGiven the strong momentum in", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $66,384 since 2026-06-17); 2027-03-17 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin holds $64,000 as support it will rally to $74,000–$79,000; if it fails to hold, new lows will be tested.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 79000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2066909917211173306", "source_type": "x", "quote": "If Bitcoin fails to hold above $64,000, we'll be testing new lows.\n\nIf it does hold above $64,000, I assume we'll be seeing $74-79,000 as the next target zone and it", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC failed to hold $64,000 (low_since_made $58,000) and never reached the $74-79K target zone (high_since_made only $66,944); the 'test new lows' branch played out instead." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin breaks through $63,300 and $65,800 the targets are $75,000 and $79,000 (CME gaps).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 79000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-06-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2065035315010765267", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Break through the areas at $63.3K and $65.8K and we'll be looking at a lot more upside.\n\nI'd have targets at $75K and $79K (CME Gaps) if that's the case.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $67,264 since 2026-06-11); 2027-06-11 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin breaks above $65,000 it will trigger a strong run to $72,000–$74,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 74000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-06-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2064316974323126628", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#Bitcoin is stalling beneath $65K as breaking that level would trigger a strong run to $72-74K.\n\nThe $65K support level was the previous level of support after the crash early in February and is now acting as the resistance to break through.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $67,264 since 2026-06-09); 2027-06-09 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's bottom is in and it has room to run up to $90-95K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 90000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-05-01", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2050269023657447496", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#Bitcoin bottom is in & it has room to $90-95K to run. If we look at historical data, the chances of a lower leg are there, but relatively small. Everything that had to happen to #Bitcoin's price, has happened. - Broke beneath 50-Week MA - Dropped to the 200-Week MA", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-05-01); 2027-05-01 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will continue its bounce toward $93-95K (the 50-Week MA).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 93000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-05-01", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2050303493328585029", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I expect #Bitcoin to continue its bounce towards $93-95K. That's where the first rally, after the end of the bear market, goes to: the 50-Week MA. I do think that we've peaked in December '24 and that we've finished the bear market in February '26.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-05-01); 2027-05-01 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will see $85-88K in May before correcting/consolidating.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 85000, "deadline": "2026-05", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2048697300764049657", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Such a massive crash on $BTC earlier. I'm kidding. The markets are still shaping up for more upside, and it's still holding crucial levels. I think that we'll see $85-88K in May and correct/consolidate from there.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-04-27..2026-05-28], reaching the $85,000 target (within 2.6% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin breaks $79K it opens the path to $86-89K, and a break of that level too means $100K+.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 86000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-04-26", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2048497738786976004", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Some great momentum on $BTC lately, however there are some crucial levels to consider: - Break $79K = opening the gates towards the $86-89K area. If that second level breaks too = $100k+ happening. This will take time.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-26); 2027-01-26 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The most bullish scenario is a Bitcoin breakout to $100K in the coming period.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-04-26", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2048382837842460739", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The most bullish scenario for #Bitcoin would be this breakout to $100K in the coming period. The reason for this is that it invalidates essentially every bearish retest scenario and clearly makes a new higher high.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-26); 2027-01-26 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will trade 30-60% above its low within 3-6 months, putting $100K on the map in Q3 2026.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2026-09", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-20", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2046317418042077427", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Statistically, after such a correction of #Bitcoin, a new ATH is made within 12 months. Within 3-6 months, on every occassion of such an outlier, Bitcoin was trading 30-60% higher than the low. That would put $100K on the map in Q3 of 2026.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-20); 2026-09-28 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin breaks $75K with volume, it will reach $80-85K this month.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": "2026-04", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2043956679553794161", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#Bitcoin aims to attack the highs and is consolidating around $75K. If it blasts through $75K with volume, we'll be in for $80-85K this month, as that's where the higher timeframe resistances are.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $79,523 in [2026-04-14..2026-04-28], reaching the $80,000 target (within 0.6% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is lining up for a breakout, with an immediate move to $80K in the coming weeks as the base case.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-04-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2043661972625817745", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Essentially, I think that we're lining up for breakouts upwards on $BTC. To get there, I have three scenarios that could play out. Scenario 1 - Immediate breakout to $80k in coming weeks (35%)", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-04-13..2026-07-01], reaching the $80,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has room to continue this leg up to $86K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 86000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-04-23", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2047382497097314681", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Upwards moves can last longer than you generally expect. #Bitcoin collapsed from $100K+ to $60K in less than 2 months. Currently, there's a slow grind higher after a V-shaped recovery in the Nasdaq. I think this leg has enough room to continue to $86K, and #Altcoins to run", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-23); 2027-01-23 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin should continue to $85-88K over the next 1-2 weeks as long as $73-75K holds.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 85000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-04-23", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2047226388231418347", "source_type": "x", "quote": "We tested the $79K area and fell back slightly. Quite some normal price action on #Bitcoin, and I don't think we'll cascade down from here. I'd much rather see a continuation to $85-88K over the next 1-2 weeks, as long as $73-75K holds.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-04-23..2026-07-01], reaching the $85,000 target (within 2.6% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "A test at $80K is still on the cards for Bitcoin while the $69.5-70K support holds.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-04-10", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2042569532527775805", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#Bitcoin remains looking for higher levels. If I see this chart, then from a technical standpoint, I would suggest that a test at $80K is still on the cards. The markets are holding onto the crucial support level at $69.5-70K and that's the area that I think is vital to avoid a", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-04-10..2026-07-01], reaching the $80,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "As long as Bitcoin holds these ranges, a strong upward leg toward $80K is on the horizon.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-04-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2042163619392000265", "source_type": "x", "quote": "As long as #Bitcoin continues to hold these ranges, there's a strong new upwards leg on the horizon towards $80K.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-04-09..2026-07-01], reaching the $80,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "If the ceasefire is sustained, Bitcoin will see a quick run to $80K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-04-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2041928055468519895", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Good stuff happening on the markets, in which I assume that we'll consolidate and continue upwards. #Bitcoin does provide a short correction, but there's literally nothing to worry. If the ceasefire is sustained and calmth comes back, I think we'll see a quick run to $80K in", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-04-08..2026-07-01], reaching the $80,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin breaks $71K, markets are in for a test at $80K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-04-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2041075948901007456", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Pretty strong momentum on the markets of #Bitcoin. Volatility picking up, and I think it's fireworks during this week as we might be getting to the end stage of the entire situation in the Strait of Hormuz. If #Bitcoin breaks $71K, then markets are in for a test at $80K.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-04-06..2026-07-01], reaching the $80,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin grinds upward into the CLARITY Act vote, a fast move to $90K within days is likely.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 90000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-05-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2054466834645110841", "source_type": "x", "quote": "This can literally go both ways. If this continues to grind upwards, with the upcoming CLARITY Act tomorrow, I would assume we might see a fast move to $90K in a matter of days for #Bitcoin. The build-up is sincerely strong.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,066 since 2026-05-13); 2027-02-13 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has more upside and may be testing $90K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 90000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-05-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2053038019028939148", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The question is: How long does #Bitcoin continue to go up, to give #Altcoins space to continue to run? Well, as long as the daily 21-MA acts beneath the current price, there's more legroom to go. I do think that we'll have more upside and that we might be testing the $90K", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,450 since 2026-05-09); 2027-02-09 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "If a Middle East peace deal lands, Bitcoin breaks back above $80K.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-25", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2058820691433070752", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I think #Bitcoin is ready for higher grounds. If there's going to be a peace deal in the coming days in the Middle East; - Oil goes down. - Yields go down. - Risk on assets will do well. - #Bitcoin breaks above $80k+ again.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted BTC breaks back above $80K; high_since_made was only $78,015 and price subsequently fell to $58,161 β€” $80K never reclaimed." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will not make new lows and will not fall beneath $61K.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 61000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2026-05-30", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2060796635249246211", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#Bitcoin is at a pivotal level, and if it doesn't hold, we're buying at <$65K. I don't think we'll see new lows. That would put Bitcoin beneath $61K and that's where the 200-Day MA is at, doesn't make sense to go deeper as it doesn't happy in any market cycle.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-05-30..2026-07-01] β€” a minor break (within 5.4%) of the $61,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "This bear market won't take Bitcoin down to $30K.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 30000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2026-04-15", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2044362849649340712", "source_type": "x", "quote": "This bear market won't go to $30K for #Bitcoin. The current market sentiment has seen the longest period with the #Altcoin fear & greed index<10. A lot of people are questioning whether or not the cycle will last and whether there's an actual use case for $BTC.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $30,000 (through 2026-07-01)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is not going to go down much more from here.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-10", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2042692315446415770", "source_type": "x", "quote": "There's a stronger case to be made that $BTC isn't going to go down much more. Yes, if you perfectly look at the only variable: the 4-year cycle, markets should bottom in October '26. However, the volatility upwards has been lower than expected, thus the markets downside will", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claimed BTC isn't going down much more from $72,998; it fell substantially to $58,161 (low $58,000), a ~20% further decline." }, { "claim_text": "Expect a long Bitcoin bull run in 2027/2028 that marks the end of the risk-on period.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2028", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-28", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2049208055192281311", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I do think we're on edge of a massive financial crisis. However, it's going to take some time before it starts. Would expect to see a long bull run on #Bitcoin in 2027/2028 first. That high on Bitcoin will likely be the end of the entire risk-on period and we'll go in a crisis", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicts a long bull run in 2027/2028; window (deadline 2028) has not elapsed and outcome is undetermined as of 2026-06-30." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin holds its support zone, two weeks of upward momentum follow and a test of $61K is avoided.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-31", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2061188970403221885", "source_type": "x", "quote": "If history repeats itself, that means that we're going to see two great weeks of upwards momentum for #Bitcoin and the end of this correction. It's a crucial support zone for Bitcoin, which needs to hold in order to prevent a test at $61,000 to happen.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted two weeks of upward momentum and avoiding a $61K test if support held; high_since_made only $74,157 (barely above $73,575) then fell through $61K to $58,000 β€” the correction continued and $61K test happened." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin breaks the $61,000 resistance, it will move strongly to the $65,000 area and potentially higher.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 65000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-30", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2071868284413018590", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Nothing has changed on #Bitcoin so far.\n\nStill acting beneath a crucial resistance zone, which equals the impact of the 200-Week MA.\n\nIf this $61,000 level breaks, we'll likely see a strong move upwards to the $65,000 area and potentially even higher.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Conditional on a $61K break; resolves true if BTC then reaches the $65K area." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is very likely to break upwards through $61,000 from here.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 61000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-29", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2071722125967458744", "source_type": "x", "quote": "This is a good start of the week for #Bitcoin.\n\nNothing is confirmed yet, although it's very likely that we'll be breaking upwards from here through $61,000.\n\nThe bullish divergences are still applicable here, indicating that there's the upside ready to come.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Resolves true if BTC breaks upwards through $61,000 following this call." } ] }, { "id": "mike-alfred", "name": "Mike Alfred", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Mike Alfred states he does not think anything can stop Bitcoin from reaching $1 million.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-06-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Is-AI-Killing-Bitcoin--The-Brutal-Truth-Behind-the-Crash---Truth-Block-e3kbt5m", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "You posted a provocative question on X... what's going to stop Bitcoin from hitting a million dollars. I don't think anything could stop it. That's kind of why I posted it.", "timestamp": "0:14:19", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $67,264 since 2026-06-04); 2031-06-04 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "mike-green", "name": "Mike Green", "handles": { "x": "@profplum99", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.yesigiveafig.com" }, "category": [ "macro", "asset-manager", "btc-skeptic" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 0, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/profplum99" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 62, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Mike Green took the bear/against side of a 5-to-1 wager with Peter McCormack, effectively betting that Bitcoin would NOT reach $100,000 by December 31, 2024. Terms: if BTC hit $100k, Green pays McCormack $20,000; if BTC missed, McCormack pays Green $100,000.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-03-04", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://protos.com/another-bad-bitcoin-bet-has-been-made-on-pussy-terms/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Peter McCormack wagered against Michael Green that bitcoin would reach at least $100,000 before December 31, 2024... The wager operated at 5-to-1 odds. If bitcoin hit the target, Green would pay McCormack $20,000. Conversely, McCormack stood to lose $100,000 if the price target wasn't met.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Green bet BTC would NOT reach $100,000 by 2024-12-31; BTC hit $108,389 by the deadline, so the $100k target was reached and Green's bear side lost." } ] }, { "id": "mike-mcglone", "name": "Mike McGlone", "handles": { "x": "@mikemcglone11", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "bloomberg.com" }, "category": [ "analyst", "macro", "institutional" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 79200, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11?lang=en" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": 20.1, "avg_specificity": 34, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 18, "counts": { "correct": 7, "wrong": 7, "partial": 4, "pending": 12 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is more likely to reach $50,000 than to retrace to its old highs of about $20,000; his macro forecast envisions Bitcoin reaching $100,000 per coin by 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "year", "made_on": "2021-01-07", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-price-more-likely-to-hit-50k-than-20k-senior-bloomberg-strategist/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "reaching the $50k milestone is significantly more likely, rather than the alternative of dipping to the previous BTC records of around $20,000 ... his macro forecast envisions bitcoin reaching $100,000 per coin by 2025", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $69,000 in [2021-01-07..2022-04-07], reaching the $50,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "His macro forecast envisions Bitcoin reaching $100,000 per coin by 2025 (long-term target stated alongside the Jan 2021 $50k call).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-01-07", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-price-more-likely-to-hit-50k-than-20k-senior-bloomberg-strategist/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "his macro forecast envisions bitcoin reaching $100,000 per coin by 2025", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2021-01-07..2025-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin reaching $100,000 is a 'matter of time'; McGlone repeatedly stated Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of 2021 and continued to stand by the $100k target after the 2022 crash.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-08-08", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/bitcoin-reaching-100000-is-matter-of-time-says-bloombergs-mike-mcglone", "source_type": "article", "quote": "McGlone repeatedly stated that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of 2021", "timestamp": "Mon, 8/08/2022 - 20:04", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "A short-term Bitcoin rise to $150,000 in the 2024 cycle is unlikely / a long shot, citing divergent weakness vs the S&P 500 and gold and the risk of short-term deflation.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-06-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsbtc.com/news/150000-bitcoin-price-target/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "factors that could make Bitcoin's projected surge to $150,000 difficult ... the potential rise to $150,000 was a long shot", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called a near-term surge to $150,000 a long shot from $67,317; BTC peaked at $126,296 and never reached $150K, so the surge indeed did not materialize." }, { "claim_text": "The widespread proliferation of ETFs and President Trump's shift to enthusiast marked the Bitcoin/crypto peak in 2025; base case is a Bitcoin/crypto bear market.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/2005653725315010635", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin/Cryptos Bear Market - \nBase case update: The widespread proliferation of ETFs and President Trump's shift to enthusiast from antagonist marked the Bitcoin/crypto peak in 2025. The decline of many bogus coins -- worth billions and tracking nothing -- to zero may signal a", "timestamp": "2025-12-29T14:54:46.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called the 2025 peak and a bear market; BTC's high was $126,296 (in 2025) and price declined to $58,161 by mid-2026, down from $87,111 at the call β€” bear market confirmed." }, { "claim_text": "Typical pendulum cycles point to an enduring trough for Bitcoin near $50,000 (alongside crude $40, gasoline $2 and 1% core CPI) in 2026.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-23", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/2003426852195496287", "source_type": "x", "quote": "CPI 1% in 2026? $40 Crude, $2 Gasoline, $50,000 Bitcoin Tracks - Typical pendulum cycles point to enduring troughs for crude oil near $40 a barrel, US daily gasoline average at $2 a gallon, Bitcoin at $50,000, and 1% in US CPI Urban Consumers Less Food & Energy (core CPI),", "timestamp": "2025-12-23T11:25:58.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2025-12-23); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "A path toward $10,000 Bitcoin: Saylor's 2020 arrival near $10,000 fueled the 10x, and the move may be reverting (first articulation of the $10k downside thesis).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 10000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/2000885784308564241", "source_type": "x", "quote": "A Path Toward $10,000 Bitcoin -\nβ€œWe buy Bitcoin with money we can’t afford to lose.” Michael Saylor, at the Economic Club of Miami event last evening.\nI admire and respect Mr. Saylor, and it was his arrival in 2020 -- when Bitcoin traded near $10,000 -- that helped fuel the 10x", "timestamp": "2025-12-16T11:08:40.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Downside thesis: BTC fell from $87,854 (2025-12-16) to $58,161 by 2026-06-30 (low $58,000), a clear ~34% decline confirming the reversion direction, but nowhere near the $10,000 destination he framed." }, { "claim_text": "If volatility returns in 2026, Bitcoin may correct further to revisit the $50,000 pivot; only sustained unusually low equity volatility avoids it.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-07", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2026/01/07/bloomberg-warns-bitcoin-could-revisit-the-50000-pivot-in-2026-but-shares-what-may-stop-it/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "if volatility returns this year, BTC may correct further to revisit the $50,000 pivot", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called a correction to revisit the $50,000 pivot in 2026; window not yet elapsed but low_by_deadline only reached $58,000, never touching $50,000 β€” and as a $50k revisit it has not come true (PENDING-leaning but conditional; the $50k level was not reached)." }, { "claim_text": "Revised downside target: it is more likely for Bitcoin to decline to $28,000 than to plunge to $10,000 (softening his earlier $10,000 call after backlash).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 28000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-19", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/19/mike-mcglone-softens-bitcoin-downside-target-to-usd28-000-after-backlash-over-usd10-000-call", "source_type": "article", "quote": "it is more likely for Bitcoin to decline to $28,000 than to plunge to $10,000", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Relative call ($28k more likely than $10k): BTC fell from $66,972 to $58,161 (low $58,000), continuing down but reaching neither $28,000 nor $10,000 β€” directionally aligned, target unmet." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could meltdown to $10,000 unless it reclaims and holds $75,000; before the 2020-21 money pump Bitcoin hovered around $10,000 and may be reverting.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 10000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/06/bitcoin-meltdown-to-usd10-000-remains-likely-unless-prices-reclaim-usd75-000-analyst-says", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Before the biggest money pump in history in 2020-21, Bitcoin hovered around $10,000, and it may be reverting", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Conditional meltdown-to-$10k unless reclaiming $75,000: BTC never reclaimed/held $75k (high since $82,814 only briefly) and slid from $68,854 to $58,000, but came nowhere near $10,000." }, { "claim_text": "If the US stock market drops in 2026 for a typical midterm election year, McGlone fully expects Bitcoin to be closer to $10,000 into year-end than where it is now; he does not expect Bitcoin above $100,000 again before the end of this cycle ('I expect Bitcoin's low-price cure to occur near $10,000').", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 10000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-15", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://coinpedia.org/news/exclusive-bloombergs-mcglone-says-bitcoin-will-hit-10000-before-it-sees-100000-again/", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "If the US stock market drops in 2026 for a typical midterm election year, I fully expect Bitcoin to be closer to $10,000 into year-end than where it is now", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Conditional year-end 2026 call ($10k-ward); deadline 2026-12-31 has not elapsed. BTC fell from $66,277 to $58,000 by 2026-06-30 but the year-end window remains open and $10k is far off." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is reverting back toward $10,000 in 2026, its most-traded price since 2017 futures launch.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/2040831238756241733", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Potential $10,000 Bitcoin in 2026\n\nProve me wrong - stay above $75,000.\nBefore the biggest money pump in history in 2020-21, Bitcoin hovered around $10,000, and it may be reverting. Roughly $10,000 is also the first-born crypto's most traded price since 2017, when futures were", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-04-05); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin may revert to $10,000 in 2026 as the crypto bubble bursts, revisiting its pre-pump price from 2020.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/2039669052033884380", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The Bursting Crypto Bubble and Potential $10,000 Bitcoin in 2026 - \n\nBefore the biggest money pump in history in 2020-21, Bitcoin hovered around $10,000, and it may be reverting. Roughly $10,000 is also the first-born crypto's most traded price since 2017, when futures were", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-04-02); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is likely to trade in the $60,000–$75,000 range in 2026, defining the risk/reward for the year.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-17", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/2045088409509609558", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin $60,000-$75,000 May Define 2026 Risk vs. Reward\n\nSince 2017, when listed Bitcoin futures started trading, the crypto has been a top performer, which may augur elevated reversion risks when the beta tide ebbs.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Range $60k–$75k for 2026: BTC traded into the band (high $82,814 above, current $58,161 just below) but spent meaningful time in-range; window (2026) still open so the year-defining claim is mixed, with price now below the lower bound." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin may guide a reversion back toward $10,000 following the ETF launch that helped push it above $100,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/2042202864215269811", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin May be Guiding Risk Asset Reversion\n\nThe launch of US Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 helped push the price above $100,000 and may guide reversion back toward $10,000.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-04-09); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is heading toward a path of $10,000 as part of a broader macro reversion thesis.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-06-26", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/2070467778478264386", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The Path Toward $10,000 Bitcoin\n\nTether flippening of Ethereum may be sustained this time. \n\nIt could be a matter of time before the dollar token flips Bitcoin, unless crypto's most enduring trend reverses: Tether's AUM surpassing everything.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-26); 2031-06-26 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will revert toward $50,000 as part of normal risk-asset mean reversion alongside a Bitcoin/gold cross of 13x.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2025-12-01", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/1995459397091283192", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Just Some Normal Reversion? $50,000 Bitcoin, 13x Bitcoin/Gold - Extreme stock market complacency may suggest further downside in risk-assets, with Bitcoin leading the way. At about 20x on Dec. 1, the Bloomberg Economics' model shows the Bitcoin/gold cross fair value closer to 13x", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2025-12-01); 2027-12-01 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin may approach $100,000 in 4Q2021 as debt-ceiling concerns favor the crypto's adoption.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-10-11", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/1447538201455906820", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#Bitcoin may be entering a unique phase for a 4Q price rise as markets gain trust in the coding that defines the crypto's supply. The debt-ceiling drama may work against managers that avoid allocations to Bitcoin.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is on a path toward $100,000 in 2021 with a halving-driven supply cut supporting price appreciation.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-08-09", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/1424686739055067141", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Ethereum in 2021 Is Bitcoin Guidance for $100,000: Flippening? If #Bitcoin were to catch up to #Ethereum's performance this year, the No. 1 crypto's price would approach $100,000. Though we see Bitcoin on that path, there appears little can stop the process of Ethereum flippening", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is poised to resume its bull market toward $100,000 in 2H 2021.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-07-08", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/1413096521277583360", "source_type": "x", "quote": "What Gets #Bitcoin Near $100K, #CrudeOil $50 - Enduring Trends: Bitcoin is poised to resume its bull-market and crude oil its bear trend in 2H, with profound macroeconomic implications, in our view.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has a bullish path to $100,000 supported by declining post-halving supply.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-06-12", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/1403708269517062149", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin $100,000 Has Bullish Ace Up Its Sleeve: Declining Supply -- This year follows a cut in Bitcoin supply, making the price more likely to appreciate if past patterns hold.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has backed up and has a path to $100,000 as its bull market resumes.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-05-25", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/1397137619948032000", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#Bitcoin has backed up for reasons that support an extended bull market and a path to $100K. A bit hot in April, a primary factor cited for the crypto's correction -- excessive energy use -- represents the strength of the world's largest decentralized network, and getting greener", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is on a path to $10,000 as Tether has flipped Ether and the dollar token may next flip Bitcoin itself.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-06-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/2063269341181735133", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The Path to $10,000 Bitcoin: Tether Has Flippened Ether - Bitcoin Is Next \n\nThe US dollar, via the Tether stablecoin, is now the No. 2 cryptocurrency. \n\nThe technology is awesome. Cryptos adopted the dollar as their base layer, invested in US Treasuries. What rational American", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-06); 2031-06-06 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is reverting toward $10,000 in 2026, mirroring the pattern seen on the way down from $10,000 in 2018 when it ultimately fell to $3,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-01", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/2061381869917089847", "source_type": "x", "quote": "What Stops Bitcoin Reversion Toward $10,000? Failing vs. Stocks\n\nOn the way down from around $10,000 in 2018, Bitcoin appeared as if it could lose a zero. The low came near $3,000. From above $100,000 last year, I saw similar signs of reversion. Now, among millions of", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-01); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's 2026 trajectory is bearish β€” it is down nearly 20% year-to-date despite a 20% Nasdaq rise, and the risk of further decline increases if stocks drop.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-01", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/2061381170655310274", "source_type": "x", "quote": "2026 May Be Sell the Open, Buy the Close for Bitcoin\n\nAt about $73,000 on May 29, Bitcoin is well off its January high near $98,000 and down almost 20% in 2026, despite a roughly 20% rise in the Nasdaq 100 Index. What happens to the crypto if stocks drop? It may be a", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bearish 2026 trajectory: BTC down from ~$98k January high to $58,161 (low $58,000) β€” clearly down well over 20% YTD as claimed, decline deepened after the call ($71,314 -> $58,000)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin faces a lose-lose scenario: it has already declined ~25% in 2026 and if the broader stock market also falls, crypto losses will likely deepen.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/2062492111815967206", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Gold, Bitcoin May Face Lose-Lose vs. Beta\n\nDespite the S&P 500's roughly 10% total return in 2026 to June 3, Bitcoin has declined about 25% and gold has reversed nearly all of its almost 30% surge to the January record near $5,595 an ounce. What of the metal if the beta tide", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Lose-lose / deepening losses: after the call BTC fell from $63,806 to $58,000, extending the 2026 decline as predicted." }, { "claim_text": "Crypto remains in a bear market and is entirely dependent on stocks continuing to rise β€” if stocks drop, crypto falls further.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-18", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/2056377341270528287", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Cryptos remain in a bear market, metals are in a bull market and both appear completely dependent on the stock market to keep going up, not to drop.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bear-market, further-downside call: BTC slid from $76,944 (2026-05-18) to $58,161 (low $58,000), a ~24% drop confirming continued decline." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin reverts toward $10,000 in the second half of 2026, spurred by a modest US stock market drawdown.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-30", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/2071927475123208643", "source_type": "x", "quote": "A Path Toward $10,000 Bitcoin, $3,400 Gold, $40 Crude Oil in 2H\n\nA modest drawdown in the US stock market may be all it takes to spur reversion toward $10,000 in Bitcoin, $3,400 an ounce for gold and $40 a barrel for WTI crude oil in 2H. That all three have declined in 2Q despite", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-30); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is pulled by gravity toward $10,000 in the second half of 2026.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-30", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/2071926608449986858", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Crude $40, Gold $3,400, Bitcoin $10,000: Gravity Pulls\n\nCrude oil is retreating from another failed attempt to stay above $100 a barrel in 1H, with reversion inklings toward the lower end of its roughly 20-year range near $40 in 2H. At the same time, typical gold retracement", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-30); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "A simple path leads Bitcoin toward $10,000 in the second half of 2026 if the stock market drops a bit and stays down.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-28", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/mikemcglone11/status/2071246000115572963", "source_type": "x", "quote": "A Simple Path Towards $40 Crude $10,000 Bitcoin in 2H - Stock market drops a bit, typical for a midterm election year, and stays down awhile.\n\nhttps://t.co/MVUX7y3hQb\n\n#crudeoil #gold #bitcoin #stockmarket @Bloomberg", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-28); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "mike-novogratz", "name": "Mike Novogratz", "handles": { "x": "@novogratz", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.galaxy.com" }, "category": [ "investor", "fund-manager", "ceo" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 490000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitterscore.io/twitter/novogratz/" }, "score": 42.9, "score_adj": 38.1, "avg_specificity": 55, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 7, "counts": { "correct": 3, "wrong": 4, "partial": 0, "pending": 3 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could hit $100,000 by the end of this year (2021) as more companies follow Tesla's lead in buying it.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-02-09", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.ibtimes.com/bitcoin-price-prediction-100000-end-2021-novogratz-says-3142157", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin could hit $100,000 by the end of this year as more companies come forward to buy the dominant cryptocurrency following Tesla's lead.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Novogratz said he would get a tattoo to commemorate Bitcoin reaching $500,000, which he expected to happen in 2024.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-01-15", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://fortune.com/2023/02/16/mike-novogratz-bitcoin-prediction-500k-in-2024-now-30k-by-2023-fed-interest-rates", "source_type": "article", "quote": "In January 2021 he said he would get a tattoo when Bitcoin reached $500,000, expecting this in 2024.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $108,389 through the 2024-12-31 horizon; never reached $500,000." }, { "claim_text": "At the Bloomberg Crypto Summit, Novogratz reaffirmed Bitcoin reaching over $500,000 by 2027.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": "2027-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-07-19", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/22/07/28120758/mike-novogratz-predicts-500-000-bitcoin-by-2027-at-bloomberg-crypto-summit", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin reaching the price levels of over $500,000 by 2027", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2022-07-19); 2027-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Speaking at a Bank of America conference, Novogratz said that if Bitcoin ends 2023 at $30,000 he would be the happiest guy, and that it wouldn't surprise him if BTC were at $30,000 by the end of the quarter (a markedly lowered, modest expectation for the year).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 30000, "deadline": "2023-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-02-15", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://fortune.com/2023/02/16/mike-novogratz-bitcoin-prediction-500k-in-2024-now-30k-by-2023-fed-interest-rates", "source_type": "article", "quote": "And I would've given both my shoes for that to be true just six weeks ago. Like if we end the year $30,000, I will be the happiest guy.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Hoped BTC ends 2023 at $30,000 / could be there by quarter-end: from $24,329 BTC reached $30k within weeks and ended 2023 around $42k–$45k (high_by_deadline $45,000), so it comfortably surpassed his $30k year-end wish." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin takes out $73,000 in the next couple of weeks, it will end 2024 at $100,000 or higher.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-06-04", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/galaxy-digital-ceo-michael-novogratz-is-bullish-on-bitcoin/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If we take up to $73,000 in the next week or so, we're gonna end the year at $100,000, somewhere around there, or even higher.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2024-06-04..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could hit $150,000 per coin this year (2025); '$150k seems to me a decent target.'", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-24", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/galaxy-digital-ceo-mike-novogratz-predicts-bitcoin-to-hit-150000", "source_type": "article", "quote": "$150k seems to me a decent target", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will eventually replace gold as a macro store of value, which would put it at $1,000,000 a coin 'just to be where gold is.'", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2025-06-12", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/bitcoin-will-replace-gold-and-go-to-1000000-says-galaxy-digital-ceo-mike-novogratz", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The bull case becomes that over time... gold slowly gets replaced by Bitcoin... that [is] $1,000,000 a Bitcoin just to be where gold is.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-06-12); 2030-06-12 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "In a CNBC interview Novogratz said $100,000 should be the downside and BTC should hold around $100k in a worst case, with a most-likely year-end 2025 range of roughly $100,000-$125,000.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-22", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/crazy-bitcoin-price-prediction-from-mike-novogratz-eyes-250k-per-bitcoin-in-2025/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "He forecasted Bitcoin would trade in a range between $100,000-$125,000 as the 'most likely outlook'... He identified only two potential catalysts for exceeding this range", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $80,525 in [2025-10-22..2025-12-31], below the $100,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Mike Novogratz believes Bitcoin will eventually reach one million dollars, though he hopes the appreciation happens slowly.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2025-08-12", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/mike-novogratz-lessons-from-a-decade-in-crypto-bitcoins-1m-roadmap-and-maxis-vs-altcoin-communities", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think we will get to a million. I just hope we get there slowly.", "timestamp": "0:15:02", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-08-12); 2030-08-12 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Novogratz believes Bitcoin has put in its cycle low around $60K and has been buying, though not 100% convinced.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-02-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/The-Real-Reason-Bitcoin-Stopped-Going-Up--Mike-Novogratz-e3f90ba", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think we put a low in at 60. I'm not 100% convinced, but I'm pretty convinced. And so, yes, I've been buying some Bitcoin recently.", "timestamp": "0:12:52", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-02-18..2026-07-01], reaching the $60,000 downside target." } ] }, { "id": "mmcrypto", "name": "MMCrypto", "handles": { "x": "@MMCrypto", "nostr": null, "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/@MMCrypto", "web": null }, "category": [ "trader", "youtuber", "technical-analyst" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 1777333, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://api.fxtwitter.com/MMCrypto" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": 100, "avg_specificity": 10, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 5, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 2, "partial": 1, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "MY BITCOIN PREDICTION (BOOKMARK THIS TWEET): $78'000 WAS THE BOTTOM.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 78000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2025-03-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://api.fxtwitter.com/MMCrypto/status/1898252343180673298", "source_type": "x", "quote": "MY BITCOIN PREDICTION (BOOKMARK THIS TWEET): \n\n$78'000 WAS THE BOTTOM.", "timestamp": "2025-03-08T06:00:01Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $60,001 in [2025-03-08..2026-03-08], reaching the $78,000 downside target." }, { "claim_text": "BITCOIN: THE FINAL PUMP!!! (current rally framed as the last leg up before the cycle top)", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-11", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://api.fxtwitter.com/MMCrypto/status/1921455812842537078", "source_type": "x", "quote": "BITCOIN: THE FINAL PUMP!!!", "timestamp": "2025-05-11T06:42:19Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'Final pump' before cycle top: from $104,138 BTC did rally further to a $126,296 high (so a final leg up did occur), but framed as the last pump it preceded a major collapse to $58,000 β€” the pump was real, the 'final' top framing only loosely held." }, { "claim_text": "Last Capitulation (as predicted). I expect this capitulation NOT to be as bad as everyone is expecting with their price targets in the 50's. The Bear market (almost over already) will be underwhelming.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-31", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://api.fxtwitter.com/MMCrypto/status/2017679732318654937", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Last Capitulation (as predicted). Stay Calm, lean back & wait. I expect this capitulation NOT to be as bad as everyone is expecting with their price targets in the 50's. The Bull was underwhelming, the Bear market (almost over already) will be as well!", "timestamp": "2026-01-31T19:21:49Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted an underwhelming bear, near-over, not as bad as low-$50k targets: instead BTC fell from $78,648 to $58,000 (low) by 2026-06-30 β€” a deep, ongoing decline toward exactly the 50s he dismissed, with no recovery." }, { "claim_text": "I think this Bitcoin Bear Market is almost over (time wise). We are in the last capitulation move... Once we have MAX PAIN, it's over, soon! MONEY MAKING TIME IS APPROACHING!", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://api.fxtwitter.com/MMCrypto/status/2019003850020262036", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I think this Bitcoin Bear Market is almost over (time wise). We are in the last capitulation move, which may continue for a bit. Once we have MAX PAIN, it's over, soon! I am getting ready NOW already. MONEY MAKING TIME IS APPROACHING!", "timestamp": "2026-02-04T11:03:23Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called bear 'almost over' and 'money making time approaching' on 2026-02-04 at $72,998; BTC instead fell to ~$58,000 and sits at $58,161 nearly 5 months later β€” the opposite of the predicted bottom/rally." }, { "claim_text": "Bear market bottom is expected around October 2026, after which the bull market will resume.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-10", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-12", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/MMCrypto/status/2065290825634845105", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bear market Bottom is supposed to be around October 2026.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicts bottom around October 2026; as of 2026-06-30 the window has not elapsed (current $58,161, low $58,000) so the timed bottom is undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is heading toward $36,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 36000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-04-29", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/MMCrypto/status/2049286229129343079", "source_type": "x", "quote": "BITCOIN: $36'000…………\n\nπŸ‘‰ https://t.co/ndJlwd3P66 [click]", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-04-29); 2028-04-28 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is not worth being bullish on short-term; a weekly close above $78k is needed before justified bullishness.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 78000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/MMCrypto/status/2046934617794764877", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Do not be Bullish on Bitcoin now short term.\n\nJustifiably Bullishness is just one Weekly close above $78k away.\n\nJust wait a little.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said 'do not be bullish short term' on 2026-04-22 at $78,209; BTC subsequently fell to ~$58,000 (current $58,161), vindicating the bearish short-term stance." } ] }, { "id": "molly-white", "name": "Molly White", "handles": { "x": "@molly0xFFF", "nostr": null, "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/@molly0xfff", "web": "https://www.mollywhite.net/" }, "category": [ "critic", "skeptic", "researcher", "journalist" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 122400, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/molly0xfff" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [] }, { "id": "murad-mahmudov", "name": "Murad Mahmudov", "handles": { "x": "@MustStopMurad", "nostr": null, "youtube": "MustStopMurad", "web": null }, "category": [ "on-chain-analyst", "macro", "altcoin-memecoin", "cycle-analyst" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 730000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/MustStopMurad" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could experience a parabolic rise in the future, reaching a high of $150,000 to $200,000 (this cycle, expected to continue into 2026).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2025-11-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.odaily.news/en/post/5207989", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitcoin could experience a parabolic rise in the future, reaching a high of $150,000 to $200,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-11-27); 2030-11-27 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The Bitcoin bull market is not over yet and will continue until 2026; I disagree with the view that the market cycle is only four years β€” this cycle may extend to four and a half or even five years.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.odaily.news/en/post/5207989", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I disagree with the view that the market cycle is only four years; this cycle may extend to four and a half or even five years, and may continue until 2026.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bull-market-continues-until-2026 thesis with deadline 2026-12-31; window still open as of 2026-06-30, though BTC is down ~36% from the $91,317 call to $58,161." }, { "claim_text": "None of the 30 traditional Bitcoin cycle-top signals have been triggered, meaning the market has not yet reached its peak / top region.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-27", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.panewslab.com/en/articles/c6d3ac4a-d9e9-4266-8184-e465be68b37b", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "None of the 30 signals that indicate the traditional Bitcoin cycle has reached its top have been triggered, meaning the market has not yet reached its peak.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claimed no cycle-top signals triggered / not yet peaked on 2025-11-27 at $91,317; BTC only reached $97,964 then fell ~40% to $58,161, indicating the peak had in fact passed." } ] }, { "id": "nassim-taleb", "name": "Nassim Nicholas Taleb", "handles": { "x": "@nntaleb", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://nassimtaleb.org" }, "category": [ "author", "statistician", "risk-analyst", "bitcoin-bear" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 1100000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/nntaleb?lang=en-GB" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 12, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 2, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "In his paper 'Bitcoin, Currencies, and Fragility', Taleb argues bitcoin can be neither a short- nor long-term store of value because 'its expected value is no higher than $0' β€” i.e., BTC's true/expected value is zero.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 0, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-06-27", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.14204", "source_type": "article", "quote": "In its current version, in spite of the hype, bitcoin failed to satisfy the notion of \"currency without government\" (it proved to not even be a currency at all), can be neither a short nor long term store of value (its expected value is no higher than $0), cannot operate as a reliable inflation hedge, and, worst of all, does not constitute, not even remotely, a safe haven for one's investments.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Asserted BTC's expected value is $0 on 2021-06-27 at $34,709; BTC went on to a $126,296 ATH and trades at $58,161 β€” nowhere near zero." }, { "claim_text": "On CNBC Squawk Box (Sept 2022), Taleb reiterated that Bitcoin should be valued at zero, calling it a 'tumor' enabled by loose monetary policy, and said that if markets worsened BTC could fall toward $1,000 or zero (then noting it was 'still at $20,000').", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 1000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-09-15", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://decrypt.co/109865/bitcoin-is-a-tumor-nassim-taleb-black-swan", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin is still used, it's still at $20,000. It's not at, you know, at $1,000 or zero.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said BTC could fall toward $1,000 or zero (2022-09-15, $19,704); the low since was $15,460 and BTC reached $126,296, trading at $58,161 β€” never approached $1,000/zero." } ] }, { "id": "natalie-brunell", "name": "Natalie Brunell", "handles": { "x": "@natbrunell", "nostr": null, "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/nataliebrunell", "web": null }, "category": [ "podcaster", "bitcoin-educator", "journalist", "commentator" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 302600, "as_of": "2023-07-07", "source": "https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/coin-stories-natalie-brunell-bitcoin-ath-all-time-high-hall-of-flame/" }, "score": 62.5, "score_adj": 56.6, "avg_specificity": 26, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 4, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 1, "partial": 1, "pending": 5 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will face a lot of headwinds over the next six to 12 months, but will hit six figures and new all-time highs within the next 24 months.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2025-07-07", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-07-07", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/coin-stories-natalie-brunell-bitcoin-ath-all-time-high-hall-of-flame/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Brunell predicts that Bitcoin will face 'a lot of headwinds' over the next six to 12 months, but believes it will 'hit six figures' and new all-time highs within the next '24 months.'", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $112,000 in [2023-07-07..2025-07-07], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will face a lot of headwinds over the next six to 12 months (from July 2023).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2024-07-07", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-07-07", "specificity": 46, "citation": { "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/coin-stories-natalie-brunell-bitcoin-ath-all-time-high-hall-of-flame/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Brunell predicts that Bitcoin will face 'a lot of headwinds' over the next six to 12 months, but believes it will 'hit six figures' and new all-time highs within the next '24 months.'", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "low", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted 'a lot of headwinds' over next 6-12 months on 2023-07-07 at $30,352; instead BTC rallied to $73,836 by the 2024-07-07 deadline β€” no headwinds, strong run-up." }, { "claim_text": "Natalie is confident that the market will eventually price Bitcoin higher to reflect its unique fixed-supply advantage over gold and silver.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/news-block-bitcoin-falls-behind-as-gold-and-silver-rally-journalist-uncovers-massive-minnesota-fraud", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitcoin is the only asset in the world where supply will not change in response to demand ever... I'm confident the market will eventually figure this out.", "timestamp": "0:04:54", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended 'market will eventually price BTC higher' claim (2025-12-29, $87,111) with no deadline; BTC has since fallen to $58,161 but the long-run thesis remains undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Natalie is very confident that Bitcoin's price will grow significantly faster than 1.4% per year going forward.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-08", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/news-block-vanguard-unlocks-bitcoin-nvidia-ceo-praises-energy-money-fink-talks-sovereign-flows-strategy-banks-a-14b-reserve", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I feel very confident Bitcoin is going to go up much more than 1.4% a year from here on out.", "timestamp": "0:09:46", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Long-run 'much more than 1.4%/year going forward' claim with no deadline; near-term BTC is down ~36% ($90,654 to $58,161) but the annualized/long-horizon outcome is undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin still has room for the price to run and will push toward even more all-time highs as this bull cycle is still early.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-26", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/news-block-new-bitcoin-ath-amid-us-debt-crisis-bank-leverage-rules-stablecoin-bill-aim-to-boost-treasury-demand", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "there's still room for the price to run... Bitcoin is pushing toward even more all-time highs. In a world where they're devaluing your dollars, Bitcoin stands as the way to opt out.", "timestamp": "0:02:11", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said BTC was 'pushing toward even more all-time highs' on 2025-05-26 at $109,464; BTC then printed a new ATH of $126,296, fulfilling the call." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is still likely in the early innings of its bull market and will continue gaining against gold.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-03-18", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/news-block-gold-breaks-3k-as-global-uncertainty-surges-bitcoin-securities-boom-eu-eyes-savings-seizures-shocking-444k-btc-prediction", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Digital sound money is in the process of overtaking analog sound money, and there's no reason to believe this trend will reverse anytime soon. It shows how we're still likely in the early innings of the Bitcoin bull market.", "timestamp": "0:03:29", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'Early innings, still room to run' (2025-03-18, $82,699): BTC did rally to a new ATH of $126,296, but then collapsed to $58,161 (below entry), contradicting the early-innings thesis." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has roughly 100x upside in value from its current level.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-18", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/paBeJqepFBns3bT2OAtC/items/KVSDQuhu4kztuhb6mE6n/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "you're at a $2 trillion asset class. to enter now, the potential is not five times, not 10 times, but in my opinion, a hundred times from where we are here. I can't say that about any other asset", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended 100x call (~$92,914 base, no deadline/horizon); BTC at $58,161 hasn't 100x'd but the long-term window hasn't elapsed and outcome is undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $1 million per coin well before 2033.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2033", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/news-block-bitcoin-smashes-90k-bernstein-predicts-1-million-bitcoin-price-us-bitcoin-reserve-in-sight", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "It's no wonder that Bernstein predicts Bitcoin will eventually reach a million dollars a coin by 2033. And personally, I think it could happen way before that.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$1M well before 2033; window open in 2026, high so far only $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will outperform other asset classes over the long run as the premier store of value against currency debasement.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-01", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Can-Bitcoin-Fix-Americas-Financial-System---Natalie-Brunell-e3bo0ge", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I would prefer to be wrong in the short run and right in the long run. And that's what I think we are with Bitcoin. It has outperformed almost every other asset over the last five, 10 years.", "timestamp": "0:06:58", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claim commits to Bitcoin outperforming other major asset classes over a long-term multi-year horizon with no specific price target or deadline." } ] }, { "id": "nayib-bukele", "name": "Nayib Bukele", "handles": { "x": "@nayibbukele", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "politician", "head-of-state", "bitcoin-advocate", "treasury-buyer" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 7800000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitter.com/nayibbukele" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 31, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "In his New Year's list of six Bitcoin predictions for 2022, Bukele predicted BTC 'Will reach $100k' during 2022.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2022-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-01-02", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://coincodex.com/article/13301/salvadoran-president-nayib-bukele-foresees-bitcoin-reaching-100k-in-2022", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Will reach $100k", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $48,240 through the 2022-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bukele argued Bitcoin's fixed 21M supply against ~50M+ millionaires worldwide means demand will eventually outstrip supply: 'A gigantic price increase is just a matter of time.' He gave no specific price target or time horizon.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-01-31", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptoslate.com/gigantic-price-rise-is-just-a-matter-of-time-nayib-bukele-on-bitcoin/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "A gigantic price increase is just a matter of time.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended 'gigantic price increase' call from $38,492; BTC rose to a high of $126,296 (~3.3x), a gigantic increase that came to pass." } ] }, { "id": "nic-carter", "name": "Nic Carter", "handles": { "x": "@nic__carter", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://niccarter.info" }, "category": [ "venture-capitalist", "bitcoin-researcher", "data-analyst" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 463700, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/nic__carter" }, "score": 100, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "It's very plausible that Bitcoin exceeds the market capitalization of all the above-ground gold in the world within five to ten years (i.e. by ~2026-2031). If institutional adoption continues into an inflationary, yield-curve-control environment, the price of Bitcoin five years from now is far, far higher than where it is today.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2031-04-07", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-04-07", "specificity": 36, "citation": { "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/07/the-motley-fools-interview-with-cryptocurrency-exp/", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "I think it's very plausible that Bitcoin exceeds the market capital of all the above-ground gold in the world within five, 10 years.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC-exceeds-gold-mcap by ~2031-04-07; window still open, and BTC (~$1.1T at $58,161) has not surpassed gold's market cap." }, { "claim_text": "The concept of the 'four-year cycle' (and 'altcoin season') is outdated; simply following the historical cyclical pattern no longer guarantees returns, and projects/assets must genuinely create value to succeed. (Implicitly: the regime that would mechanically deliver a post-halving 2025 blow-off top is dead.)", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-16", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.chaincatcher.com/en/article/2220635", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Nic Carter: The concept of the 'four-year cycle' is outdated, and truly creating value has become a new severe challenge", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called the mechanical post-halving 2025 blow-off top dead; instead of a top, BTC fell from $94,184 (made) to $58,161 with no blow-off." } ] }, { "id": "nicholas-merten", "name": "Nicholas Merten", "handles": { "x": "@Nicholas_Merten", "nostr": null, "youtube": "DataDash (youtube.com/@DataDash)", "web": "nicholasmerten.com" }, "category": [ "youtuber", "trader", "technical_analyst" ], "followers": { "platform": "youtube", "count": 509000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://gb.youtubers.me/datadash/youtuber-stats/en" }, "score": 20, "score_adj": 27.6, "avg_specificity": 49, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 5, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 4, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will not reach $100,000 or $150,000 in Q4 2021 or Q1 2022; the muted reaction to the first futures Bitcoin ETF showed six figures is not coming in that window.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2022-03-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-11-14", "specificity": 68, "citation": { "url": "https://benzinga.com/z/24081958", "source_type": "article", "quote": "There's no way we are going to a $100,000 or $150,000 in Q4 of this year or Q1 of next year.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "No six figures by Q1 2022: high by 2022-03-31 deadline was only $66,340, far short of $100k/$150k." }, { "claim_text": "Optimistic case is an expanding-cycles blow-off to $200,000, but the more likely target is roughly $100,000 around March (about a 78% move over three trading months from late-2021 levels).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2022-03-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-12-01", "specificity": 68, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/2819615/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "It might be that we see the expanding cycles theory broken to some degree, and we go all the way to $200,000. ... [That is a] 78% price move from where we stand at the moment, over three trading months.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $59,119 through the 2022-03-31 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is reaching its breaking point; a major capitulation event lies ahead if BTC drops below its 2022 low of around $15,600, having failed even to retest its 200-day and 200-week moving averages.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 15600, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-12-21", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://in.tradingview.com/news/cryptopotato:6e6210889094b:0/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The fact that we are well suspended and not even coming up to re-test those 200 day, as well as the 200 week [averages], is a big worrying sign.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted capitulation below the ~$15,600 2022 low; BTC's low since ($16,326) never broke it and price rallied to $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "If BTC fails to break the resistance band untested since January, expect the typical ~85% correction from the all-time highs later in 2023, driven by Fed rate hikes.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 10350, "deadline": "2023-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-04-03", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.cointribune.com/en/imminent-bitcoin-crash-nicholas-merten-hits-again/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "We are entering this potential resistance band which has not been broken again since January, this is going to be a real test ... that typical 85% correction.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted ~85% correction later in 2023; instead BTC rose from $27,812 to $45,000 by 2023-12-31 (low only $24,750, ~11% down)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin faces a looming correction of over 43%, likely finding support around the $15,000-$16,000 range (roughly a $650 billion total crypto market cap) as the Fed stays hawkish.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 15500, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-09-24", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://benzinga.com/z/34843319", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The best-case scenario here for those who've already positioned themselves is that we're going to find support prior lows at around the $650 billion market cap range or for Bitcoin likely around that $15,000-$16,000 range.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted >43% drop to $15k-$16k support; BTC's low since ($25,984) barely moved from $26,250 and it rallied to $126,296." } ] }, { "id": "nico", "name": "Nico", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 100, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Nico argues Bitcoin remains in its four-year cycle which has not yet been broken, implying further downside before recovery.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-25", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/867B-GIANT-Sends-A-HUGE-Bitcoin-WARNING-YOU-HAVE-9-MONTHS--EP-1468-e3gvf4q", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "we are in a four-year cycle until that's broken. Right now, that hasn't been broken yet. That's the reality of Bitcoin's recent price action. It is literally history repeating itself like it has done every other cycle.", "timestamp": "0:19:18", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted further downside on intact four-year cycle; BTC fell from $71,302 (made 2026-03-25) to $58,161 (low $58,000)." } ] }, { "id": "nik-bhatia", "name": "Nik Bhatia", "handles": { "x": "@timevalueofbtc", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://thebitcoinlayer.com/" }, "category": [ "macro_analyst", "author", "researcher" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 70600, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/timevalueofbtc" }, "score": 31.2, "score_adj": 19.5, "avg_specificity": 50, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 8, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 5, "partial": 1, "pending": 9 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will surpass $1 million in the 2030s.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2039-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-06", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://en.bitcoinsistemi.com/renowned-economist-nik-bhatia-bitcoin-will-reach-1-million-sooner-than-expected/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I believe Bitcoin will surpass $1 million in the 2030s", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-05-06); 2039-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "A new peak of $130,000 for Bitcoin within the next 18 months would confirm the path toward seven figures (i.e., Bhatia expects a new all-time high above ~$130k within roughly 18 months of May 2026).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 130000, "deadline": "2027-11-06", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-06", "specificity": 70, "citation": { "url": "https://en.bitcoinsistemi.com/renowned-economist-nik-bhatia-bitcoin-will-reach-1-million-sooner-than-expected/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "a new peak of $130,000 for Bitcoin within the next 18 months would confirm this journey", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-05-06); 2027-11-06 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has hit bottom; while it does not mean we are in a bull market yet, it is a sign the bear market is over.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-06", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://en.bitcoinsistemi.com/renowned-economist-nik-bhatia-bitcoin-will-reach-1-million-sooner-than-expected/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I think Bitcoin has hit bottom. While this doesn't mean we're in a bull market yet, it's a sign that the bear market is over.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called the bottom in / bear market over at $81,438 on 2026-05-06; BTC subsequently fell to $58,000/$58,161, far below." }, { "claim_text": "The classic four-year halving cycle is no longer the main scenario; cycles can now spread over a wider period of time.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-06", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://en.bitcoinsistemi.com/renowned-economist-nik-bhatia-bitcoin-will-reach-1-million-sooner-than-expected/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "the classic \"4-year halving cycle\" theory is no longer the main scenario", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Framing claim that the 4-year cycle is no longer the main scenario; open-ended regime thesis not confirmed or refuted by the realized path." }, { "claim_text": "Expects BTC to trade between $100,000 and $150,000 over the next several months (2x to 3x the ~$50,000 realized price).", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2026-01-25", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-25", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/K7tE88Tou85HHg2NlTFy/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "is $150,000. So I would expect the price to be between $100,000 and $150,000 here over the next several months. As that $50,000 realized price goes to $80,000, then the range then moves from, you know, to $160,000 to $240,000 and that we're oscillating. Now, if you go from $240,000 to 160,000, that's a pullback of 33%. That could happen even over a year. And it still wouldn't be this previous,", "timestamp": "0:07:41", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $80,525 in [2025-07-25..2026-01-25], below the $100,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is leading and its bounce is foreshadowing volatility coming down; expects it to roll back up and trigger a buy signal sometime in the next few months, with a path toward the US directing capital into Bitcoin.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-06-18", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-18", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/f335cCg6byjRQhAv26eU/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I can see the path to the United States trying to direct capital into Bitcoin. Bitcoin is leading. The bounce that Bitcoin is showing is foreshadowing volatility coming down. Roll it back up and trigger a buy signal sometime in the next few months.", "timestamp": "0:00:17", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC did roll back up from $71,245 to a high of $82,814 within the window (by 2026-06-18), but the broader thesis was mixed and it then collapsed to $58,161." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's volatility is compressing as it matures, and the more compressed the volatility, the lower the likelihood of an 80% decline going forward.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-24", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/kCDzoF0QU0rtpppFb8Zv/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I'm a big fan of consolidation in Bitcoin. Well, it's just compressing in volatility, and that's a sign of it maturing. and the more compressed the volatility is the less likelihood of an 80% decline.", "timestamp": "0:00:00", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended probabilistic claim with no deadline; max drawdown was ~48% ($111,042 to $58,000), well short of the 80% threshold he downplayed, so it remains undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "With realized price ~$50k and Bitcoin oscillating around 2x-3x realized value, he expects the price to be between $100,000 and $150,000 over the next several months.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2026-01-25", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-25", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/K7tE88Tou85HHg2NlTFy/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "So right now the realized just crossed over $50,000 and the cap at a trillion. So two times that is $100,000. Three times that is $150,000. So I would expect the price to be between $100,000 and $150,000 here over the next several months.", "timestamp": "0:07:10", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-01-25 horizon; never reached $150,000." }, { "claim_text": "For the first time he is willing to put a year on Bitcoin hitting $1 million, saying it is now within current market reach rather than speculative.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "year", "made_on": "2025-07-25", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/K7tE88Tou85HHg2NlTFy/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I've never been able to put a year on Bitcoin hitting a million until this year. But I don't feel like it's speculative now. Now it's within, you know, our current market reach.", "timestamp": "0:00:34", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-07-25); 2026-10-25 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will rally to new highs after one more test of the $69,420 support level.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 69420, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-20", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/timevalueofbtc/status/2068464008869638331", "source_type": "x", "quote": "One more battle at $69,420 then we head to the moon\n\nI don't make the rules #bitcoin", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted moon after retesting $69,420; from $64,223 BTC never reached $69,420 (high $65,553) and instead fell to $58,161." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $300,000 long-term, which he identifies as his own price target.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 300000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-06-23", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/timevalueofbtc/status/2069483202075639984", "source_type": "x", "quote": "For every $300k guy (me), you need a $30k guy in your life.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $64,212 since 2026-06-23); 2029-06-23 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Maximum pain for Bitcoin in 2026 is $58,000, with price likely to chop around that level.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 58000, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/timevalueofbtc/status/2063272061058101496", "source_type": "x", "quote": "MAX PAIN IS $58K IN 2026", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-06-06..2026-07-01], reaching the $58,000 downside target." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin holds $73,000 this spring, expect magnificent things going forward.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 73000, "deadline": "2026-06-21", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-09", "specificity": 100, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/timevalueofbtc/status/2053123431517053088", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I would like to see bitcoin hold $73,000 this Spring and expect magnificent things going forward if it does.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $59,073 in [2026-05-09..2026-06-21], below the $73,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's base case price target is $1 million.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-05-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/timevalueofbtc/status/2052167509462356264", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$1 million is the base case \n\nbased", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-05-06); 2032-05-06 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Nik Bhatia says ETF demand is accelerating his estimate of when Bitcoin can reach gold parity (~$500,000) and eventually $1 million.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2024-03-20", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD789_-_Nik_Bhatia.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "the demand that actually happens when the things go live and the jump off price point together are starting to accelerate my estimation of when we can get to gold, which would be about half a million. And then, of course, a million.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-03-20); 2029-03-20 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Nik Bhatia predicts Bitcoin will reach $100,000, stating he became comfortable saying so in late 2023 and affirms it is happening.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2024-03-20", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD789_-_Nik_Bhatia.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "My comfort in starting to verbalize 100K, I got really comfortable late last year... I started writing about it. I want the readers to understand it's time to prepare yourself. We're going 100K. It's happening.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2024-03-20..2024-12-20], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Nik Bhatia predicts a rotation of roughly $6 trillion from stocks and bonds into Bitcoin, which would bring Bitcoin to approximately $300,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 300000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2024-03-20", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD789_-_Nik_Bhatia.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I see a rotation out of the 150 trillion of stocks and bonds into Bitcoin alongside money market funds so that they'll have this cash pool in money market fund shares of six trillion and this Bitcoin cash pool of six trillion. And, you know, that gets Bitcoin to 300K.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-03-20); 2027-03-20 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "northstar", "name": "Northstar", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Northstar (chartist) is calling for Bitcoin to fall to $40,000 by Q4 2026.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 40000, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Did-the-Bitcoin-Bottom-Just-Print--Or-Is-the-Worst-Still-Coming---Truth-Block-e3khb8h", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Northstar, a well-followed chartist, says, We've already broken below long-term support, and things are about to get a lot worse. He's calling for 40k Bitcoin by the fourth quarter of this year.", "timestamp": "0:01:29", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-09); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "nouriel-roubini", "name": "Nouriel Roubini", "handles": { "x": "@Nouriel", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://nourielroubini.com" }, "category": [ "economist", "academic", "perma-bear" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 514000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/Nouriel" }, "score": 25, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 1, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin price is now below 30K. A critical level - meaning the majority of retail suckers, who entered into the market after March 2021, are in the red. Fundamentally it should go much lower. Only issue: will Tether pump and pump & dump schemes now prop it up as in past episodes?", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-07-20", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://zycrypto.com/fundamentally-bitcoin-should-go-much-lower-nouriel-roubini-screams-after-btcs-fall-under-30000/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin price is now below 30K. A critical level – meaning the majority of retail suckers, who entered into the market after March 2021, are in the red. Fundamentally it should go much lower.", "timestamp": "2021-07-20", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called for BTC to 'go much lower' from $29,796 in July 2021; instead it rallied to a high of $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "Op-ed 'The Coming Crypto Apocalypse': Roubini argues crypto's latest plunge underscores the highly volatile nature of this 'pseudo-asset class' and that the industry is on the verge of a full-blown apocalypse, with structural (not political) problems that deregulation cannot fix; the future will be 'gradual evolution, not the revolution that crypto-grifters promised.'", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-03", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://nourielroubini.com/articles/the-coming-crypto-apocalypse/", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies' latest plunge further underscores the highly volatile nature of this pseudo-asset class; one only hopes that policymakers will wake up to the risks before it's too late.", "timestamp": "2026-02-03", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a full-blown crypto apocalypse; BTC declined from $75,661 to $58,161 (a real drop) but no apocalypse occurred and the asset class persisted." } ] }, { "id": "nvk", "name": "NVK", "handles": { "x": "@nvk", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://bitcoin.review" }, "category": [ "bitcoin_builder", "hardware_wallet", "podcast_host" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 159400, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/nvk" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [] }, { "id": "parker-lewis", "name": "Parker Lewis", "handles": { "x": "@parkeralewis", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://graduallythensuddenly.xyz/" }, "category": [ "educator", "author", "bitcoin-advocate" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 0, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/parkeralewis" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Parker Lewis states that Bitcoin will increase in purchasing power over time.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-07", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC2910304561.mp3?updated=1753848631", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I know that Bitcoin is going to increase in purchasing power over time. I harden my psychology to prepare for a 50% drawdown tomorrow and then plan my life to account for that volatility.", "timestamp": "0:05:19", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended 'increase in purchasing power over time' long-horizon claim with no deadline; currently below entry ($58,161 vs $97,058) but window has not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Parker Lewis predicts that within approximately 10 years the world will be on a Bitcoin standard, implying Bitcoin becomes the dominant global monetary system.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2035", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-07", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC2910304561.mp3?updated=1753848631", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "So I'm somebody that would say, hey, in 10 years, we're going to be on a Bitcoin standard and everybody should be operating under the the mindset of the fuse is very short in the fiat system.", "timestamp": "0:43:03", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claim resolves as correct if Bitcoin is broadly adopted as the primary global monetary standard by approximately 2035." } ] }, { "id": "paul-tudor-jones", "name": "Paul Tudor Jones", "handles": { "x": "ptj_official", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "macro_investor", "hedge_fund", "commentator" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 0, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/ptj_official" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Asked how to position, Jones said 'I'm long gold, long bitcoin' and recommended owning a basket of bitcoin, gold, commodities and Nasdaq because 'all roads lead to inflation' β€” a bullish directional stance on BTC.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-10-22", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/10/22/paul-tudor-jones-all-roads-lead-to-inflation-hes-long-bitcoin-and-gold", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I'm long gold, long bitcoin.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Long-BTC stance from $67,380 (Oct 2024); BTC subsequently rallied to a new ATH of $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "In a CNBC 'Squawk Box' interview, Jones said 'all the ingredients are in place for some kind of a blow-off,' likening conditions to October 1999, and recommended holding bitcoin, gold and the Nasdaq to ride a coming melt-up rally β€” while warning to keep 'happy feet' because 'there will be a bad end to it.' A near-term blow-off top / massive-rally timing call.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-06", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.cryptopolitan.com/tudor-investment-recommends-btc-gold/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "My guess is that all the ingredients are in place for some kind of a blow-off.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called for a blow-off/melt-up rally from $124,720; BTC only marginally exceeded it ($126,296) then crashed to $58,161 β€” no melt-up materialized." } ] }, { "id": "pentoshi", "name": "Pentoshi", "handles": { "x": "@Pentosh1", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "trader", "technical-analyst", "macro" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 834500, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://dailyhodl.com/2024/12/17/bitcoin-and-ethereum-primed-to-go-massively-higher-soon-according-to-top-crypto-analyst-here-are-his-targets/" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": 18.3, "avg_specificity": 30, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 8, "counts": { "correct": 4, "wrong": 4, "partial": 0, "pending": 4 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin must reclaim $58k or 2022 will be a 'crab year of PvP trading'; expects 2022 to be sideways/lower than the consensus '22 > 21/20' view, citing slowing onboarding, more supply, tapering and rate hikes.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-12-27", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1475599624719249409.html", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC must reclaim 58k simply put. If not then = crab year of PvP trading. ... a year of PvP markets where true traders win", "timestamp": "2021-12-27", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Conditional: fail to reclaim $58k means a down/crab 2022 lower than the bull consensus; BTC never reclaimed $58k and crashed to $15,460, confirming the bearish directional call." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin would not make new lows until Q1-Q2 2023 ('No new lows until Q1-2 2023 imo'); those looking for new lows in 2022 unlikely to get them.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2023-06-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-12-08", "specificity": 44, "citation": { "url": "https://www.binance.com/en-IN/feed/post/441129", "source_type": "article", "quote": "No new lows until Q1-2 2023 Imo. ... These would be the most obvious extremes ranges that I think we can cover in 2023 for $btc.", "timestamp": "2022-12-08", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "No new lows by Q1-2 2023: against the prior $15,460 cycle low, the low by deadline (2023-06-30) was $16,273 β€” no new lows were made." }, { "claim_text": "Identified ~$12,000 as the most obvious low-end 'extreme' range for BTC in 2023 (downside scenario).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 12000, "deadline": "2023-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-12-08", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/amp/content/30018913", "source_type": "article", "quote": "the $12,000-mark will be the lowest point for Bitcoin in 2023", "timestamp": "2022-12-08", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called $12,000 as the 2023 low; BTC's low by deadline (2023-12-31) was $16,273 and never reached $12,000." }, { "claim_text": "'I think it's possible we see $BTC at 180k by the end of 2025' (a ~277% move from then-current ~$48k), citing ETF flows and BTC's fixed supply.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 180000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-02-09", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/02/37060691/bitcoins-bright-future-crypto-analyst-predicts-180-000-price-by-2025-based-on-beautiful-pa", "source_type": "article", "quote": "This is beautiful. I think it's possible we see $BTC at 180k by the end of 2025. Keep in mind, it's just a guess.", "timestamp": "2024-02-09", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $180,000." }, { "claim_text": "'$180,000 still in 2026 at the latest in my opinion' and 'eventually one day over $1 million' for a single BTC (made with BTC ~$97k).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 180000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-24", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/11/42155055/crypto-analyst-bitcoin-poised-to-skyrocket-to-180k-and-eventually-top-1m", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Eventually one day over $1 million. If you zoom out and think bigger. ... $180,000 still in 2026 at the latest in my opinion. Eventually higher than we all imagined.", "timestamp": "2024-11-24", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-11-24); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Eventually a single BTC will trade 'over $1 million' (no deadline, long-horizon view).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-24", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/11/42155055/crypto-analyst-bitcoin-poised-to-skyrocket-to-180k-and-eventually-top-1m", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Eventually one day over $1 million. If you zoom out and think bigger.", "timestamp": "2024-11-24", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Explicitly long-horizon 'eventually one day over $1 million' with no deadline; high since was only $126,296, window not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could trade as high as $180,000 'between this year and next' (i.e. 2026-2027), with confirmation likely once BTC clears the mid-$80,000s and holds.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 180000, "deadline": "2027-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-04", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/26/05/52263907/bitcoin-could-hit-180000-until-2028-but-the-best-altcoin-is-not-xrp-analyst-says", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin could trade as high as $180,000 between this year and next ... once BTC clears the mid-$80,000s and holds, the chances of seeing new highs are quite high.", "timestamp": "2026-05-04", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-05-04); 2027-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's downside is probably around $48k; the next decade is a supercycle that will produce the largest bubble in human history.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 48000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-06-25", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Pentosh1/status/2070224810450252197", "source_type": "x", "quote": "So here is a little bit of framework thinking on bitcoin:native Is the bottom in? Maybe. A great sign of course is one of the most reliable signs of all time. That it stops reacting to negative news. We aren't quite there yet. The downside imo is prob 48k ish. So, nothing real", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-25); 2031-06-25 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is likely to reach the 74,000–80,000 range within the next week.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-03-23", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-16", "specificity": 76, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Pentosh1/status/2033332481517080883", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Looking pretty good there on that $BTC weekly close. \n\nThis continues to remain true. \n\n74-80k in this next week very likely.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted 74-80k within the week (by 2026-03-23); high_by_deadline was only 76,023 β€” it touched the lower edge but the 74-80k band as a target was not reached in full and price fell to low 67,332; spot was already 74,886 at made, so this was effectively unmet. Band top (80k) never hit by deadline." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin targets of 74,000–80,000 remain on the table and look increasingly promising.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-10", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Pentosh1/status/2031392988258251006", "source_type": "x", "quote": "74-80k still on the table, and it continues to look more and more promising for $BTC \n\nThere has even been more of an institutional bid again for the first time in weeks.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "74-80k target band: BTC rallied from 69,961 to a high of 82,814 since made, trading fully through the 74-80k range." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's original upside targets of 74,000–80,000 remain valid and have not been invalidated.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-09", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Pentosh1/status/2031040999506800858", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Still believe this to be true, and still sitting in this at an average entry of 68.5k. \n\nOriginal targets were 74-80k. Didn't sell any at 74k when I had the chance. But the original ideas, are not invalidated on $BTC", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "74-80k targets: from 68,432 BTC reached high of 82,814, trading through the entire 74-80k band." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin needs to reclaim the 84,000–86,000 area on higher time frames for true price expansion.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 84000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-28", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Pentosh1/status/2049130648909021655", "source_type": "x", "quote": "We got the 80k push on $BTC. Whether this ends up as a macro LH is yet to be determined. But long term I don't think it's a bad spot with quite a bit of patience. Right now I think it's more important to reclaim a prev level if we want true expansion. For example 84-86k area HTF", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Needed reclaim of 84-86k for expansion; high_since_made was only 82,814 β€” never reached 84k, and price subsequently collapsed to 58,000." } ] }, { "id": "permabull-nino", "name": "Permabull Nino", "handles": { "x": "@PermabullNino", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://permabullnino.substack.com/" }, "category": [ "on-chain analyst", "crypto researcher", "newsletter author" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 0, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/permabullnino?lang=en" }, "score": 100, "score_adj": 100, "avg_specificity": 24, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 3 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "A bounce back to $67k is a likely buy scenario from current levels.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 67000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-17", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PermabullNino/status/2067377966011572378", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Feels like scam dump for crypto. Bounce back to $67k feels like buy", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $66,384 in [2026-06-17..2026-07-01], reaching the $67,000 target (within 0.9% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "A break below $54k would trigger a market-wide clean out.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 54000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PermabullNino/status/2062208933390102551", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Fwiw think we're def getting a market wide clean out if we get $54k. So no reason to be all in atm", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-03); 2027-06-03 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin breaking $80k will be followed swiftly by $100k.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-05-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PermabullNino/status/2051645928340349221", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Break $80,000\n\nThen $100,000 $BTC swiftly imo", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-05-05); 2027-02-05 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is in an expected expansion zone up to $100k.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-05-12", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PermabullNino/status/2054191709341483287", "source_type": "x", "quote": "bitcoin:native expected \"expansion zone\" between here and $100k imo\n\nAlts starting to make moves out of a bottom too, so would expect them to follow up shortly afterwards", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,066 since 2026-05-12); 2027-02-12 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "peruvian-bull", "name": "Peruvian Bull", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 100, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Ongoing global QE and money printing will drive Bitcoin higher as fiat monetary systems weaken.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-05-05", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/Whats-happening-with-JPY----Peruvian-Bull-SLP571-e2j958s", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And if Japan is having this crisis, right, eventually China can have a similar crisis and eventually, you know, Indonesia. And if they all need dollars more than anything and if the Fed is not going to let them sell U.S. assets, that means more money printing. And that means more QE. And that means, of course, Bitcoin goes higher.", "timestamp": "0:22:54", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Directional higher call from 64,023; BTC rose to a high of 126,296 since made, a clear meaningful move up over the open-ended horizon." } ] }, { "id": "pete-rizzo", "name": "Pete Rizzo", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 0, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will repeat its historical cycle pattern and reach a new all-time high around or before the 2024 halving, as economic coordination around the halving event continues to drive the cycle.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2024", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-07-27", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD532_-_Pete_Rizzo.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I still think the Bitcoin cycle theory is intact... So we know that now the next halving is coming up in 2024... if the Bitcoin price were to hit an all-time high, again, before the halving, basically people coordinated for their economic benefit... you said it's going to do the same shit again. Uh-huh. Yeah. Feeling pretty good about that one.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted new ATH around or BEFORE the 2024 halving (Apr 2024); high_by_deadline (2024) was 108,389 β€” an ATH, but it came in Dec 2024 well after the April halving, not before it as the coordination thesis required." } ] }, { "id": "peter-brandt", "name": "Peter Brandt", "handles": { "x": "@PeterLBrandt", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.peterlbrandt.com" }, "category": [ "trader", "technical-analyst", "classical-chartist" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 800000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1972083979223261212" }, "score": 61.5, "score_adj": 49.4, "avg_specificity": 48, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 13, "counts": { "correct": 7, "wrong": 4, "partial": 2, "pending": 8 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "With the thrust above the upper boundary of the 15-month channel, the target for the current bull market cycle scheduled to end in Aug/Sep 2025 is being raised from $120,000 to $200,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2025-09-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-02-27", "specificity": 54, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/02/27/chart-expert-peter-brandt-raises-bitcoins-2025-target-to-200k-on-channel-breakout", "source_type": "article", "quote": "With the thrust above the upper boundary of the 15-month channel, the target for the current bull market cycle scheduled to end in Aug/Sep 2025 is being raised from $120,000 to $200,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $124,533 through the 2025-09-30 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "My target is $135,000 in Aug/Sep 2025. A close below $48K negates my chart analysis.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 135000, "deadline": "2025-09-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-10-09", "specificity": 68, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/peter-brandts-bullish-bitcoin-forecast-135k-by-2025-but-48k-is-the-line-in-the-sand/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "My target is $135,000 in Aug/Sep 2025. [A] close below $48K negates my chart analysis.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $124,533 through the 2025-09-30 horizon; never reached $135,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could reach a cycle top between $125,000 and $150,000 by August or September 2025 (if it reclaims its broken parabolic trendline). Recorded at the lower bound $125,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 125000, "deadline": "2025-09-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-01", "specificity": 68, "citation": { "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/05/01/veteran-analyst-brandt-issues-new-bold-prediction-for-when-bitcoin-will-hit-120k-to-150k/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "a cycle top between $125,000 and $150,000 by August or September 2025", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $124,533 in [2025-05-01..2025-09-30], reaching the $125,000 target (within 0.4% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "Applying a consistent 75-week bull-cycle pattern, Brandt projected the bull-market top would arrive during the week of Sept. 22, 2025, plus or minus two weeks (window ~Sept 15-28), with Bitcoin reaching between $125,000 and $145,000.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-10-12", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-18", "specificity": 76, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/legendary-trader-peter-brandt-just-010107426.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "during the week of Sept. 22, plus or minus two weeks ... Bitcoin could reach between $125,000 and $145,000 if the historical pattern repeats.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Top window Sept 15-28 2025 at 125-145k: BTC printed its cycle high of 126,296 by deadline, within the price band and timing window; price then declined to 58,000." }, { "claim_text": "I think there is a 30% chance that BTC has topped for this bull market cycle.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-15", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coingape.com/peter-brandt-sees-30-chance-bitcoin-has-topped-this-cycle/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I think there is a 30% chance that BTC has topped for this bull market cycle.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "30% chance BTC had topped: it did top β€” high_since_made was 126,296 (just above the 117,437 spot) before collapsing to 58,000, confirming the cycle top was effectively in." }, { "claim_text": "Should Bitcoin continue with the most remarkable cyclic patterns of any market in the past 15 years, an investable low is scheduled for Sep/Oct 2026. The next high (should patterns continue) will be between $300k and $500k in Sep/Oct 2029.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 300000, "deadline": "2029-10-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-23", "specificity": 50, "citation": { "url": "https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/can-bitcoin-hit-500k-veteran-trader-peter-brandts-bitcoin-price-prediction-targets-300k-500k/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Should Bitcoin continue with the most remarkable cyclic patterns of any market in the past 15 years, an investable low is scheduled for Sep/Oct 2026...The next high (should patterns continue) will be between $300k and $500k in Sep/Oct 2029.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-23); 2029-10-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Brandt projects Bitcoin reaching $250,000 in late 2029, and is 'not calling for a low until Sep/Oct 2026' β€” anticipating a prolonged bottoming phase rather than a confirmed bottom in early 2026.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2029-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-04", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/05/04/veteran-trader-peter-brandt-sees-bitcoin-hitting-usd250-000-but-only-after-a-bottom-later-this-year", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I am not calling for a low until Sep/Oct 2026.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-05-04); 2029-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will not reach $200,000 until Q3 2029 (walking back his earlier 2025 $200K target).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2029-09-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-21", "specificity": 44, "citation": { "url": "https://www.cryptopolitan.com/peter-brandt-predicts-bitcoin/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin won't reach $200,000 until Q3 2029", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "low", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claim is BTC won't reach 200k until Q3 2029; window open until 2029-09-30 and high since made is only 97,964, so undetermined and not yet elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin $BTC is now in the sweet spot of the bull market halving cycle that should top in the $130k to $150K range next Aug/Sep. (Recorded at the lower bound $130,000 for an Aug/Sep 2025 cycle top.)", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 130000, "deadline": "2025-09-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-06", "specificity": 68, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1854280831969231109", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin $BTC is now in the sweet spot of the bull market halving cycle that should top in the $130k to $150K range next Aug/Sep. I measure cycles differently than most. For background see link here: https://t.co/XWxS0kT4pO https://t.co/3oDYzIQf69", "timestamp": "2024-11-06T21:52:55.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC reached $124,533 by the 2025-09-30 horizon β€” within 4.2% of $130,000 but short." }, { "claim_text": "Based on Jan-Mar '24 run as ONLY one 'time/price' Bayesian probability 'priors,' price could hit $125k by New Years. (BTC reaching $125,000 by year-end 2024.)", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 125000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-10", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1855582282460836050", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin gave everyone a chance to buy breaks from Mar-Oct '24\nWhen BTC decides to \"Mark-Up,\" it never looks back\nThroughout its history, when BTC runs - it runs\nBased on Jan-Mar '24 run as ONLY one \"time/price\" Bayesian probability \"priors,\" price could hit $125k by New Years https://t.co/HCiKKojDkA", "timestamp": "2024-11-10T12:04:25.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $108,389 through the 2024-12-31 horizon; never reached $125,000." }, { "claim_text": "I believe: 1. The $BTC bottom is in 2. New ATHs not coming until Q3 2024 3. Chop fest in the meanwhile.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2024-09-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-10-25", "specificity": 44, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1717175571577516272", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Anyone who declares they know the future path of any market is a fool. Markets will ALWAYS surprise.\n\nYet, with this disclaimer, I believe:\n1. The $BTC bottom is in\n2. New ATHs not coming until Q3 2024\n3. Chop fest in the meanwhile\n\nI've used this blueprint for approx 2 years https://t.co/hVt0zbTOsm", "timestamp": "2023-10-25T13:45:34.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bottom in (low_by_deadline 33,400 β‰ˆ entry, held) + new ATHs not until Q3 2024: ATH (73,836 by deadline) actually came Mar 2024, before Q3 β€” but bottom was in and chop held; new sustained ATHs did extend into 2024. Net the bottom-is-in core call was right and price rose to 126,296." }, { "claim_text": "A massive broadening top has completed; targets implied are 81k and 58k. (Downside call for BTC to fall toward $81k then $58k.)", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 58000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-19", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1991184928206426561", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Does a sweeping reversal ((Nov 11) followed by 8 days of lower highs and the completion of a massive broadening top qualify as a bear market?\nTargets implied are 81k and 58k\nThose who now claim they will be big buyers at $58K will be pukers by the time BTC reaches $60k https://t.co/Z01KKDSGmV", "timestamp": "2025-11-19T16:40:55.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Downside targets 81k then 58k from 91,462: low_since_made reached exactly 58,000, hitting both implied targets." }, { "claim_text": "The current parabolic advance has been violated; the violation of previous parabolas have all declined 80%+. 20% of ATH = $25,240. (Implied downside toward ~$25k.)", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 25240, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/2000327833764388900", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin investors, do you know:\n\n1. Bull cycles have experienced exponential decay\n2. BTC's bull cycles have undergone parabolic advances\n3. The violation of previous parabolas have all declined <80%\n4. The current parabolic advance has been violated\n\n20% of ATH = $25,240 https://t.co/0hWAaEd6Dy", "timestamp": "2025-12-14T22:11:34.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Implied ~80% decline toward 25,240 from 88,172; BTC did decline to 58,000 (~34% off, ~54% off ATH) confirming the bearish direction but nowhere near the 25k / 80%-decay target." }, { "claim_text": "As I see it Bitcoin has met its initial target at the Feb low. This does not mean BTC cannot work lower or have a terminal wash-out. I do not see a tradable low until October.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-10-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-04", "specificity": 50, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/2062366699035545805", "source_type": "x", "quote": "As I see it Bitcoin has met its initial target at Feb low. This does not mean that BTC cannot work lower or have a terminal wash-out. I do not see a tradable low until October. https://t.co/Yg9RL8U7cF", "timestamp": "2026-06-04T02:51:52.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Window open: deadline Oct 31 2026 not yet elapsed (as_of Jun 30); BTC at 58,161 near low, tradable-low timing undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will find a tradable low in September or October 2026 and then rally to $300k–$500k in the subsequent cycle.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 300000, "deadline": "2026-10-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-23", "specificity": 74, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/2047396252112028135", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Should Bitcoin continue with the most remarkable cyclic patterns of any market in the past 15 years, an investable low is scheduled for Sep/Oct 2026. That low might or might not penetrate the Feb 2026 low. The next high (should patterns continue) will be between $300k and $500k", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Sep/Oct 2026 low window still open (deadline Oct 31 2026); $300k-$500k high is a future-cycle target, undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "The next Bitcoin bull market cycle should reach approximately $200,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2025-11-21", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1991667726121857441", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Full disclosure folks ... The next bull market in Bitcoin should take us to $200,000 or so.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-11-21); 2028-05-21 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's triangle measured-move target is $94,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 94000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2024-10-29", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1851100685682585769", "source_type": "x", "quote": "B I T C O I N $BTC\nTarget of 94,000 is measured move of triangle projected from breakout level on semi-log", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2024-10-29..2025-10-28], reaching the $94,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's target from the current bull cycle is $135,000 in August or September 2025, with a close below $48k negating the setup.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 135000, "deadline": "2025-09-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-10-09", "specificity": 68, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1843994335748263991", "source_type": "x", "quote": "My target is $135,000 in Aug/Sep 2025\n-Close below $48K negates my chart analysis", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $124,533 through the 2025-09-30 horizon; never reached $135,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will bottom in August–October 2026 then move sharply higher.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-10-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-29", "specificity": 50, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/2016955310871892237", "source_type": "x", "quote": "@papachetado BTC to bottom in Aug-Oct then straight up. Anyway, my think this minute", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Author calls for a BTC low forming in Aug–Oct 2026 followed by a strong rally; resolvable by checking price action through Q4 2026." }, { "claim_text": "A completed bear channel in Bitcoin signals further downside; price must reclaim $93k to negate the bearish setup.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 93000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-25", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/2015537854622122345", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Yet another sell signal in Bitcoin as a bear channel has been completed. Remember that charts can always morph. Price needs to reclaim $93k to negate $BTC", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Prediction is bearish direction from the bear-channel completion unless BTC closes back above $93k; resolvable by checking subsequent price action." }, { "claim_text": "The double-walled fulcrum bottom pattern in Bitcoin has a 2x measured target in the mid-$25,000s.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 25000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-01-29", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1619845975211925504", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The bottom in $BTC is a double walled fulcrum pattern. Extremely rare. The 2X target is mid 25's.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $49,102 in [2023-01-29..2024-01-28], reaching the $25,000 target." } ] }, { "id": "peter-dunworth", "name": "Peter Dunworth", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 44, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 6 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has 100x upside over the next 10 years.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2036-06-12", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-12", "specificity": 36, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/7TdN63mPXdDfINbBEC02/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "you boil that down to what the upside is for Bitcoin over the next 10 years, which I still believe we've got 100x in front of in the next 10 years, Bitcoin becomes undeniable.", "timestamp": "0:00:00", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "10-year horizon to 2036-06-12 wide open; 100x upside undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Over the next six to twelve months Bitcoin will put in a price bottom.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2027-06-12", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-12", "specificity": 46, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/7TdN63mPXdDfINbBEC02/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "over the next sort of six to 12 months, we will see a bottoming of price in Bitcoin. And we'll start to see that those markets have the dislocation that we talk of and want.", "timestamp": "0:11:45", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "6-12 month bottoming window (deadline 2027-06-12) still open; outcome undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach billions of dollars per coin; it's a matter of when, not if.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2025-10-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/kTujcgmJSGGOjKZWyJEQ/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "There's absolutely no doubt in my mind, we're going to get to billions of dollars per Bitcoin. It's just a matter of when, not if.", "timestamp": "0:00:35", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-10-02); 2030-10-02 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin can go up a thousand or ten thousand X from current price to support the global collateral/credit system.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-02", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/kTujcgmJSGGOjKZWyJEQ/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "So we can have Bitcoin go up a thousand or ten thousand X from here to grow into the size that it's going to support the current credit system and more.", "timestamp": "0:11:48", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "No deadline, 1,000x-10,000x is a multi-decade target; clearly undetermined (BTC actually fell from 120,621 to 58,161)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will appreciate in value between now (late Oct 2025) and when his house deal settles at the end of Q1 2026.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-03-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-25", "specificity": 44, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/2ZrJYPJrPcqnTIUSisEr/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And if I'm willing to take the risk, I think Bitcoin's going to appreciate value between now and when we ultimately settle. It's a good deal for me. I don't have to sell Bitcoin.", "timestamp": "0:41:19", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted BTC would appreciate by end-Q1-2026 settle, but it fell from 111,666 (made) to ~60,001 low by the Mar 31 2026 deadline β€” depreciated." }, { "claim_text": "Peter Dunworth believes Bitcoin will eventually reach $20 billion per coin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 20000000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2023-09-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD707_-_Peter_Dunworth.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Peter is probably the most bullish man in Bitcoin. He thinks that Bitcoin will eventually be $20 billion a coin. He thinks right now it should be valued at $7 billion a coin.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-09-08); 2028-09-08 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Peter Dunworth argues Bitcoin's fair value today is $7 billion per coin, derived by dividing $6.3 trillion in daily global trade by the 900 BTC minted daily.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 7000000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-09-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD707_-_Peter_Dunworth.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "The first valuation framework is simple in that there's $6.3 trillion worth of global trade that happens on a daily basis. And if you divide $6.3 trillion by the 900 Bitcoin that are minted on the day, you get to $7 billion a coin.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-09-08); 2029-09-08 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "peter-mccormack", "name": "Peter McCormack", "handles": { "x": "@PeterMcCormack", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "whatbitcoindid.com" }, "category": [ "podcaster", "bitcoiner", "media" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 602900, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/PeterMcCormack" }, "score": 59.4, "score_adj": 67.3, "avg_specificity": 39, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 16, "counts": { "correct": 9, "wrong": 6, "partial": 1, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "McCormack bet Michael Green (Simplify chief strategist) at 5:1 odds that Bitcoin would reach at least $100,000 before the end of 2024. If BTC hit $100k by Dec 31, 2024, Green would pay him $20,000; if it failed, McCormack would owe Green $100,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-03-05", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://protos.com/another-bad-bitcoin-bet-has-been-made-on-pussy-terms/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "He wagered at 5-1 odds that Bitcoin would reach at least $100,000 before December 31, 2024. If unsuccessful, McCormack owes $100,000 to counterparty Michael Green; if successful, Green owes $20,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2024-03-05..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Peter McCormack believes Bitcoin's compound annual growth rate will outpace Real Bedford FC's capital spending needs over the next two years, implying continued strong Bitcoin appreciation.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-04-24", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC4226258577.mp3?updated=1735704744", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "if Bitcoin does what I think it'll do over the next two years, I think our capital needs will never catch up with the compound annual growth rate of Bitcoin. So essentially our treasury will always be ahead of our capital needs", "timestamp": "0:11:30", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Over the two-year window (Apr 2024-Apr 2026) BTC rallied to 126,296 then fell back below the 64,256 entry (now 58,161) β€” strong appreciation realized but gave it all back." }, { "claim_text": "Peter McCormack expects Bitcoin's performance over the next two decades will outpace a declining compound annual growth rate, keeping his club's treasury ahead of capital needs.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-04-24", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC4226258577.mp3?updated=1735704744", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "The math in my head is that I think if Bitcoin reprises how I think it will do over the next two decades, we will not spend at the rate that we will grow that treasury based on even a declining compound annual growth rate. So that's my thesis.", "timestamp": "0:12:25", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Two-decade horizon with no real deadline; outcome undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will recover above $42K at some point in 2021, and may even exceed $50K within the month.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 42000, "deadline": "2021", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-01-20", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD302_-_Andy_Edstrom.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Like at some point this year, it's going to be back over $42. You might even do it this month, be back over $50. Like I've never been so calm about losing so much money in my life.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $69,000 in [2021-01-20..2021-12-31], reaching the $42,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Peter McCormack says Bitcoin is probably going to go over $50,000 in the next few days from the episode recording date.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": "2021-02-14", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-02-09", "specificity": 100, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD309_-_American_HODL__Preston_Pysh.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "It's probably going to go over 50 in the next few days. And everyone, it's a race because if you don't get in at 50, you're going to get in 100. If you don't do it 100, it's going to be 150.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $49,700 in [2021-02-09..2021-02-14], reaching the $50,000 target (within 0.6% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "Peter McCormack says Bitcoin could go to a million or even ten million dollars, calling a million no longer a crazy target.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2021-03-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD316_-_Balaji_Srinivasan.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "It's basically like the best investment of all time, right? And I have a feeling that it's not going to settle down for a while. You know, I mean, it could go to a million, even 10 million. A million is no longer a crazy number to put out there for Bitcoin.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-03-02 horizon; never reached $1,000,000." }, { "claim_text": "Peter McCormack predicts Bitcoin will have a very good March 2021 following its dip to $45k.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2021-03-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-03-02", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD316_-_Balaji_Srinivasan.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitcoin is back over 50,000. When it dipped back over, it's looking pretty strong. Since it dipped down to 45k, I've got a feeling we're going to see a very good March following a great start to the year.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a very good March 2021; BTC rallied from 48,512 to 61,788 high by Mar 31 2021 β€” a strong month." }, { "claim_text": "Peter McCormack expects Bitcoin to hit $58,000 and then a new all-time high above $60,000 in the near term.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2021-03-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD319_-_Dominic_Frisby.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitcoin has rallied back over $54,000 overnight. Looking pretty hot at the moment. And just like we're going to hit $58,000 again. Maybe over $60,000, another all-time high. We haven't had one for a few weeks.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $69,000 in [2021-03-09..2021-12-09], reaching the $60,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Peter McCormack predicts Bitcoin will return to $60k and then hit $70k, calling $100k inevitable.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2021-03-19", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD323_-_Zac_Prince.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "It's edging back to new all-time highs. We tapped 60k. It's going to get back there, right? And then we're going to hit 70k. I think 100k is inevitable.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-19 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will hit $70K soon given it is currently over $60K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 70000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2021-04-12", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487//traffic.libsyn.com/forcedn/whatbitcoindid/WBD333_-_American_HODL__BitcoinTINA.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Pretty excited with Bitcoin right now. Well, we're over 60k. I think we're going to hit 70k soon.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $69,000 in [2021-04-12..2022-01-12], reaching the $70,000 target (within 1.4% β€” near-miss counted)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will hit $100K, describing it as inevitable and coming soon.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2021-04-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD335_-_Willy_Woo.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Seems to be a nothing burger. Anyway, it just seems a matter of time, though. We're going to hit 100K soon, right? It's coming. It's inevitable.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2022-01-16 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Peter McCormack predicted Bitcoin would breach $100,000 within the next three months.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2021-08-19", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-05-19", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD350_-_Nik_Bhatia.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I feel like we're on the tipping point of some kind of explosive growth. I expect us within the next, I don't know, let's be broad, let's say the next three months to breach $100,000. I think there's so much stuff happening.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $48,177 through the 2021-08-19 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Peter McCormack suggested Bitcoin could trade at $500,000 before the end of 2021, and that it will reach that level at some point.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": "2021", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-07-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD373_-_Jack_Mallers.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "you and I both know that this thing could trade at $500,000 before this calendar year is over. Who knows? That's totally possible. And at some point, it will. I don't know when, but it will. There's plenty of upside left.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $500,000." }, { "claim_text": "Peter McCormack predicted Bitcoin would not reach $300,000 by end of 2021, expressing confidence he will win his under-bet against American HODL.", "claim_type": "ceiling", "threshold_usd": 300000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-11-27", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD429_-_Willy_Woo.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Under over 300k. I took under. Oh, yeah. I think you're going to win that by the end of this year, right? Yeah, end of the year.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was $59,250, stayed at/below $300,000 (through 2021-12-31)." }, { "claim_text": "Peter McCormack said he believes Bitcoin has bottomed at $33k and is now heading higher.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 33000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2022-03-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD472_-_Bill_Barhydt.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I feel like we bottomed out for 33k. Price-wise, I think we've bottomed out for now. We'll see whether this is a channel or whether it's really like rocket fuel for the next kind of macro slash network effect driven leg up. I think it could be.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $15,460 in [2022-03-08..2022-12-08], below the $33,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Peter McCormack predicts Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 and that crossing that level will trigger mainstream media coverage and a new wave of public interest.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2024-03-07", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD783_-_Checkmate.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I actually think it might even be once it goes over 100k because I think that 100k data point is just huge... I think that 100,000 like USD. I think that's going to be a big day. And I think that's when the phone calls will be.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $109,358 in [2024-03-07..2025-03-07], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Peter McCormack stated he expects Bitcoin to exceed $100,000 at some point, perhaps in 2024.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2024", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-05-17", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD814_-_Dan_Roberts.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And that's mining Bitcoin at $17,000 with the price at $60,000. But we all are fairly confident that that's going to go higher. We expect $100,000 to get beat at some point, perhaps this year.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2024-05-17..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Peter McCormack believes the era of explosive retail-driven Bitcoin bull markets is over and will not return.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/peter-mccormack-changing-bitcoin-bull-markets-role-of-government-and-victory-over-craig-wright", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "No, I think they're done. I think we've had those. I think that experience is done. I mean, look, I could be wrong. 2029, it might be different. The world might be melting down and people realize they need Bitcoin. But I don't see it happening.", "timestamp": "0:10:19", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Resolves true (McCormack correct) if Bitcoin fails to produce a retail-pandemonium-driven cycle with multiple 30%+ drawdowns followed by a blow-off top through 2029; resolves false if a comparable retail frenzy bull market occurs." } ] }, { "id": "peter-schiff", "name": "Peter Schiff", "handles": { "x": "@PeterSchiff", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "schiffgold.com" }, "category": [ "perma-bear", "commentator" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 1400000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/PeterSchiff" }, "score": 35, "score_adj": 30.5, "avg_specificity": 24, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 10, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 5, "partial": 3, "pending": 8 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Following the same pattern as the 2013 crash, Bitcoin will finally bottom out in Sept. of 2023 just below $12,000.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 12000, "deadline": "2023-09-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-12-31", "specificity": 54, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1477039342665318401", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Following Bitcoin's Dec. 2013 crash, #Bitcoin continued to fall for another 21 months, finally bottoming out at $231 in Sept. of 2015, 80% below its Dec. 2013 peak of $1,150. If the same thing happens again, Bitcoin will finally bottom out in Sept. of 2023 just below $12,000.", "timestamp": "2021-12-31T22:09:56.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a Sept-2023 bottom just below $12,000; cycle low was ~15,460 (Nov 2022) and BTC never traded below $12,000 by the Sep 30 2023 deadline." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has broken the neckline of a head-and-shoulders top; the pattern projects a move below $30,000, and once that level is breached a crash below $10,000 is highly likely.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 10000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-01-21", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/bitcoin-pattern-projects-movement-below-30000-peter-schiff-says-details", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin has finally broken the neckline of a head-and-shoulders top. The scary part for the longs is that the pattern projects a move below $30,000. Once that level is breached Bitcoin will have completed a massive double top. From there a crash below $10,000 is highly likely.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "First leg hit: BTC fell below $30,000 (to 15,460); but the 'crash below $10,000 highly likely' never happened (low 15,460)." }, { "claim_text": "This could be a rough weekend for crypto. Bitcoin looks poised to crash to $20K and Ethereum to $1K. Don't buy this dip. You'll lose a lot more money.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 20000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-06-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://watcher.guru/news/gold-advocate-peter-schiff-predicts-bitcoin-to-20000-and-ethereum-to-1000", "source_type": "article", "quote": "This could be a rough weekend for #crypto. #Bitcoin looks poised to crash to $20K and #Ethereum to $1K...Don't buy this dip.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted BTC crash to $20K; from 28,389 it crashed through $20K to 15,460 shortly after." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has far more downside risk than 70%. After such a decline Bitcoin will still be way over-priced, so $5,000 will not even be close to the bottom.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 5000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-12-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1599765089934249986", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#Bitcoin has far more downside risk than 70%. After such a decline Bitcoin will still be way over-priced, so $5,000 will not even be close to the bottom. \nhttps://t.co/VGj6ZPuwvi", "timestamp": "2022-12-05T13:58:14.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted bottom well below $5,000; instead BTC bottomed near $16,273 and rallied to $126,296 β€” never came close to $5K." }, { "claim_text": "By the time gold reaches its $5K target, it will drag Bitcoin down to $10K, a drop of 95% from its 2021 high.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 10000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-03-28", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coingape.com/heres-why-peter-schiff-predicts-bitcoin-btc-price-crash-to-10k/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "By the time they get to their target of $5K for gold, they will drag Bitcoin down to $10K, meaning a drop of 95% from the highest it was valued at in 2021.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Crash to $10K is tied to gold hitting $5K (not yet occurred) with no deadline; BTC's low since made is only $58,000, nowhere near $10K and window undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin was born out of the financial crisis of 2008. Ironically, the financial crisis of 2025 will kill it.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-04-11", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.outlookmoney.com/cryptocurrency/economist-peter-schiff-predicts-bitcoins-end-in-2025-financial-crisis", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin was born out of the financial crisis of 2008. Ironically, the financial crisis of 2025 will kill it.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "A 2025 crisis was supposed to 'kill' Bitcoin by year-end, but BTC made a new ATH of $126,296 within the window β€” not killed." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin finally broke below $100K. The bigger crash is happening in Ether, which is about to break below $3K. Bitcoin could surrender all its 2025 gains (roughly $90K).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 90000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coinspeaker.com/bitcoin-price-crash-peter-schiff-complete-wipeout-2025-gains/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin finally broke below $100K. But the bigger crash is happening in Ether, which is about to break below $3K.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted BTC could surrender all 2025 gains (~$90K) after breaking below $100K; from $101,468 it fell to $58,000, below $90K and into the loss zone." }, { "claim_text": "A minimum target for BTC is about $50K; long term Bitcoin will go much lower than $50K.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-17", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/2001411758620053766", "source_type": "x", "quote": "It’s hard to find a chart that looks worse than $MSTR. At a minimum, the stock should drop to about $80, which is half its current price. It’s hard to imagine MSTR dropping that much without a significant decline in Bitcoin as well. I’d say a minimum target for BTC is about $50K.", "timestamp": "2025-12-17T21:58:42.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Direction down was right (fell from $86,210 to $58,000) but the stated $50K minimum target was not reached; no deadline, window still open." }, { "claim_text": "At no point in its 16-year history did Bitcoin ever trade below a prior ATH four years later. The $126K ATH may have been the final ATH.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": 126296, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinpaper.com/14422/bitcoin-price-prediction-peter-schiff-warns-126-k-may-have-been-btc-s-final-all-time-high", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The $126K ATH may have been the final ATH", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Whether $126K is the final ATH is open-ended/cycle-horizon; no new ATH since (high only $82,814), but the window has not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin breaks $50K, which looks likely, it seems highly likely it will at least test $20K. I know Bitcoin has done that before, but never with so much hype, leverage, institutional ownership, and market cap at stake.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 20000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-19", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/peter-schiff-says-highly-likely-203109216.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If Bitcoin breaks $50K, which looks likely, it seems highly likely it will at least test $20K...I know Bitcoin has done that before, but never with so much hype, leverage, institutional ownership, and market cap at stake.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Conditional on breaking $50K, which has not happened (low since made $58,000), so the $20K test is untriggered and window open." }, { "claim_text": "There is way too much complacency in Bitcoin for the market to be anywhere near a bottom. When Bitcoin breaks $50K, it should be a quick fall below $20K, which should shake the conviction of long-term HODLers, causing many to finally throw in the towel.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 20000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/06/03/bitcoin-price-will-crash-to-20k-once-it-breaks-50k-peter-schiff/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "When Bitcoin breaks $50K, it should be a quick fall below $20K, which should be a big enough drop to shake the conviction of long-term HODLers, causing many to finally throw in the towel.", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T04:17:00-04:00", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Conditional on breaking $50K then falling below $20K; BTC's low is $58,000, never broke $50K, trigger not met and window open." }, { "claim_text": "There's a huge head-and-shoulders top forming. The most likely resolution is a retest of the longer-term uptrend off the Dec. 2018 low, which puts a bottom between $25,000 and $27,000.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 27000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/2063236875184152932", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Look at this long-term Bitcoin chart. The uptrend off the Dec. 2022 low is broken. There's a huge head-and-shoulders top forming. The most likely resolution is a retest of the longer-term uptrend off the Dec. 2018 low. If it holds, that puts a bottom between $25,000 and $27,000. https://t.co/aIV806YiUL", "timestamp": "2026-06-06T12:29:38.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Forecast bottom of $25,000–$27,000 not reached (low since made $58,000); no deadline and window still open." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's collapse will be more spectacular than its rally once the speculative ETF frenzy ends.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-12-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1731490025500536886", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The speculative frenzy around spot Bitcoin ETFs will end soon. Bitcoin's collapse will be more spectacular than its rally. In contrast gold's rally is real.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted ETF-driven collapse, but BTC rallied from $41,987 to a $126,296 ATH after spot ETF approval β€” no collapse." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will crash as tech stocks sell off, heading in the opposite direction from gold.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/2062350830955618756", "source_type": "x", "quote": "It looks like the correction in tech stocks has finally begun. That's bad news for Bitcoin, as the tech rally was its main support. As tech stocks sell off, Bitcoin should crash. Gold will likely head in the opposite direction, as investors rush to buy a true safe-haven asset.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC did edge down from $63,806 toward $58,000 (~9%), a modest decline rather than the predicted 'crash'." }, { "claim_text": "Once Bitcoin breaks below $50K, it will quickly fall below $20K, shaking out long-term holders.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 20000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/2061942885591789703", "source_type": "x", "quote": "There is way too much complacency in Bitcoin for the market to be anywhere near a bottom. When Bitcoin breaks $50K, it should be a quick fall below $20K, which should be a big enough drop to shake the conviction of long-term HODLers, causing many to finally throw in the towel.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-02); 2027-03-02 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "If 2026 follows the pattern of Bitcoin's other three down calendar years, BTC will finish 2026 near $30,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 30000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-05", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/2062955592168173621", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin has had only four negative calendar years, none consecutive. Last year it fell just 6%. But the average decline in the other three years was 65%. So far this year Bitcoin is down about 30%. If this year is like the other three down years, Bitcoin will finish near $30,000.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-05); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's mania has topped out and it is not going to reach $100,000.", "claim_type": "ceiling", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2024-04-25", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/peter-schiff-his-50-gold-allocation-economy-crash-landing-intrinsic-value-bitcoin-regrets", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "The whole mania has topped out and as of now going to 100 we're not going to 100 Peter probably not probably not now it's now it it could happen.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC rose to $109,358 in [2024-04-25..2025-01-25], above the $100,000 ceiling." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will crash after a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved or GBTC converts, as front-running speculators sell the news.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-11-09", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1722626576326787172", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#Bitcoin is approaching $38K as speculators continue to front run a new #BitcoinETF. However, once that ETF is launched all of the speculators will have already bought. So when those buyers sell to take profits, there won't be many left to buy the ETF. Get ready for a crash.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC rose substantially after spot ETF approval in January 2024, reaching new all-time highs; the predicted post-approval crash did not materialize in the near term." } ] }, { "id": "peter-zeihan", "name": "Peter Zeihan", "handles": { "x": "@PeterZeihan", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://zeihan.com" }, "category": [ "geopolitics-analyst", "author", "btc-skeptic" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 301000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/PeterZeihan" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 2, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Asked the BTC price (~$16,000), Zeihan said it has 'another $17,000 to go down' β€” i.e. an implied drop below zero β€” and that Bitcoin has no intrinsic value and is 'starting to be priced appropriately' as it falls.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 0, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-01-07", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptoslate.com/the-crypto-world-is-seething-at-peter-zeihans-interview-on-joe-rogan-podcast/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "What's Bitcoin at, $16,000? It has another $17,000 to go down.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claimed another $17,000 of downside (implied below zero) from ~$16,942; BTC only dipped to $16,904 then rallied to $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "Zeihan predicted Bitcoin's USD price would eventually 'go negative' / that it is 'worth negative $1,000', arguing there is 'no intrinsic value to this product' and it will ultimately go to zero.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 0, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-01-07", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://finbold.com/bitcoin-up-over-580-since-joe-rogan-guest-claimed-it-had-no-intrinsic-value/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "There's no intrinsic value to this product ... It has another $17,000 to go down ... [Bitcoin is] actually worth negative $1,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted BTC goes to zero/negative ($17k more down from $16,942); instead it rallied to a high of $126,296 and never went negative." } ] }, { "id": "philip-swift", "name": "Philip Swift", "handles": { "x": "@PositiveCrypto", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.lookintobitcoin.com" }, "category": [ "on-chain-analyst", "cycle-indicators", "data-tools" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 71100, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/PositiveCrypto" }, "score": 62.5, "score_adj": 32.1, "avg_specificity": 42, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 4, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 1, "partial": 1, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's bear market is largely over and will last '2-3 months max'; 'I believe we are now at the point of maximum opportunity for Bitcoin,' with the bulk of the bear market likely behind it and not long to go until BTC exits its macro downtrend.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2023-01-14", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-10-14", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/bitcoin-bear-market-will-last-23-months-max-interview-with-btc-analyst-philip-swift-2912821", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "Bitcoin bear market will last '2-3 months max' β€” Interview with BTC analyst Philip Swift. [Swift] I believe we are now at the point of maximum opportunity for Bitcoin ... the bulk of the bear market is already 'likely' behind it.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Cycle bottom ($15,460) did form within his window, but BTC first dropped sharply on the FTX collapse β€” contradicting 'bear largely over' before recovering to ~$21,479 by the deadline." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could 'quite easily' return to $20,000 within the next three to four months β€” a ~25% downside move from the prevailing price, which Swift said was entirely possible for a volatile asset.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 20000, "deadline": "2023-08-25", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-04-25", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-can-easily-hit-20k-in-next-4-months-philip-swift", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "Bitcoin price can 'easily' hit $20K in next 4 months β€” Philip Swift. [Swift]: a return to $20,000 could 'quite easily' play out within the next three to four months, as a -25% move would be possible for a volatile asset like Bitcoin.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a -25% move to $20,000 by 2023-08-25; BTC's lowest in the window was only $24,750 and it never reached $20k." }, { "claim_text": "The Bitcoin bull market is just getting started and has 'a long way to go' β€” citing the MVRV Z-Score (2.87, rising) sitting well below the >5 readings seen at the 2021 cycle top, implying substantial further upside despite the new all-time high.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-03-12", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://bitcoinist.com/founder-btc-bitcoin-bull-run-just-getting-started/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Swift stated the Bitcoin bull market has 'a long way to go' ... the MVRV Z-Score remains low but rising as of March 12 ... up to 2.87, rising from 2.82 when Swift posted on X. In the 2021 bull cycle, the score stood at over 5.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bull had 'a long way to go' from $71,476 β€” BTC subsequently rallied to $126,296 (~+77%), confirming substantial further upside." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's extreme value zone sits in the $40,000s and sustained drops below that level feel unrealistic.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 40000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-03-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PositiveCrypto/status/2028400721067217041", "source_type": "x", "quote": "BTC is already in good value territory from a long-term perspective, but I think extreme value sits in the $40k's region. Sustained drops below that area feel somewhat unrealistic imo.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $40,000 (through 2026-07-01)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will rally to the short-term holder realized price near $81,000 as a near-term target.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 81000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-04-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PositiveCrypto/status/2043973087394431105", "source_type": "x", "quote": "BTC has been trending up nicely since my post below. If it breaks out properly then STH Realised Price, currently at $81k, is a real near-term target", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-04-14..2026-07-01], reaching the $81,000 target." } ] }, { "id": "pierre-rochard", "name": "Pierre Rochard", "handles": { "x": "@BitcoinPierre", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://pierre-rochard.medium.com/" }, "category": [ "bitcoin-maximalist", "industry-executive", "researcher" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 106900, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/bitcoinpierre" }, "score": 14.3, "score_adj": 100, "avg_specificity": 3, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 7, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 6, "partial": 0, "pending": 5 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Biden's 2025 budget is very bullish on Bitcoin; the White House expects $250k by 2035 (Rochard derived ~$254,158 by scaling 2025 vs 2035 expected digital-asset tax revenue against BTC's then-price).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2035-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-03-11", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://bitcoinist.com/white-house-bitcoin-surge-250000/", "source_type": "x", "quote": "BREAKING🚨 Biden's 2025 budget is very bullish on #Bitcoin, the White House expects $250k by 2035. They are counting on it for their tax revenues!", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-03-11); 2035-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "When BTC has a market cap of $33 trillion (matching the US national debt at the time), the USD exchange rate will be $1.7 million per bitcoin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1700000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2023-12-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BitcoinPierre/status/1732455954526908444", "source_type": "x", "quote": "When #BTC has a marketcap of $33 trillion, the USD exchange rate will be $1.7 million per bitcoin.\n\nThe US national debt is $33 trillion.", "timestamp": "2023-12-06T17:44:21.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-12-06); 2029-12-06 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "This could be the last bitcoin cycle; Saylor has unlocked the Speculative Attack (i.e. the classic four-year boom/bust pattern may not repeat).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-05", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BitcoinPierre/status/1864511331061166277", "source_type": "x", "quote": "This could be the last bitcoin cycle, Saylor has unlocked the Speculative Attack.", "timestamp": "2024-12-05T03:25:16.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said 4-year boom/bust may not repeat; instead BTC peaked at $126,296 then crashed >50% to $58,161 β€” the classic cycle pattern recurred." }, { "claim_text": "We are at parity with 2016; baseline expectation is that Bitcoin is going to do very well in 2025.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-28", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BitcoinPierre/status/1872868174062076243", "source_type": "x", "quote": "We’re at parity with 2016. \n\nBaseline expectation is that Bitcoin is going to do very well in 2025.", "timestamp": "2024-12-28T04:52:23.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'BTC does very well in 2025' β€” within the 2025 window it set a new ATH of $126,296 (~+33% from $95,131) despite giving gains back later in the year." }, { "claim_text": "This Bitcoin bull market is different from previous cycles; we are likely to see more gradual price growth that aligns with underlying demand, rather than the sharp run-ups and crashes of the past, supported by a healthier price floor than in past cycles.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-02-25", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://pierre-rochard.medium.com/the-new-bitcoin-bull-market-24a21d52ec93", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "This bitcoin bull market is different from previous cycles. ... we are likely to see more gradual price growth that aligns with underlying demand, rather than the sharp run-ups and crashes of the past.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted gradual growth with no sharp run-ups/crashes; instead BTC ran to $126,296 then crashed sharply to $58,000 β€” the opposite path." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin bull market is beginning.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-02", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BitcoinPierre/status/1940485337555652775", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin bull market is beginning.", "timestamp": "2025-07-02", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called the bull market 'beginning' at $108,888; BTC made a marginal high of $126,296 then crashed to $58,161, far below the made price." }, { "claim_text": "It seems more likely than not that the 4-year cycles are over: halvings are immaterial to trading float, 95% of BTC has been mined, supply comes from buying out OGs, and demand is spot retail + ETPs added to wealth platforms + treasury companies. Bitcoin's CAGR is now tied to interest rates / macro, not the halving.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-11", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BitcoinPierre/status/1954712471228555553", "source_type": "x", "quote": "It seems more likely than not that the 4 year cycles are over. Halvings are immaterial to trading float, 95% of the BTC have been mined, supply comes from buying out OGs, demand is the sum of spot retail, ETPs getting added to wealth platforms, and treasury companies.", "timestamp": "2025-08-11", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said 4-year cycles are over (made $118,702); BTC topped ~Oct 2025 at $126,296 then busted to $58,000 β€” consistent with a normal cycle peak/crash." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is in deep value territory and the most undervalued asset in history, ready for a 'seismic rally' / about to 'explode' in 2026.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-04", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PINB3K23558", "source_type": "youtube", "quote": "Bitcoin is a Ticking Time Bomb About to EXPLODE in 2026 | Pierre Rochard", "timestamp": "2026-02-04", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "low", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "No 'seismic rally' yet β€” only reached $82,814 then fell back to $58,161 β€” but the 2026-12-31 window has not elapsed (as_of 2026-06-30)." }, { "claim_text": "64 days since the $126,296 ATH; BTC needs +$33,606 (+36.3%) for a new ATH β€” the bull market is only beginning.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-10", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BitcoinPierre/status/1998546889386635332", "source_type": "x", "quote": "64 days since the $126,296 ATH on 2025-10-06. \n\nBTC needs +$33,606 (+36.3%) for a new ATH.\n\nThe bull market is only beginning.", "timestamp": "2025-12-10T00:14:44.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said bull market only beginning, needing +36.3% for new ATH; instead BTC peaked at $97,964 then fell to $58,161, never approaching the $126,296 ATH." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is in a monetary tightening cycle with big macro tailwinds over the next 5 years (bullish 5-year directional/timing call).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2030-03-24", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-03-24", "specificity": 36, "citation": { "url": "https://njump.me/0ce6f03f8f3f2d56a9839d3cdc169271b5f0d715f513a66d6f3e2e08f47a155c", "source_type": "nostr", "quote": "Also, that’s in a monetary tightening cycle. Big macro tailwinds over the next 5 years.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "5-year macro-tailwind window runs to 2030-03-24 and is nowhere near elapsed; BTC is down to $58,161 but the call's horizon remains open." }, { "claim_text": "Pierre Rochard expects Bitcoin to recover and possibly hit new all-time highs by the end of 2026.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-17", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Did-Elon-Ring-the-Bell-on-the-Top--The-Great-Capital-Rotation-is-Coming---Truth-Block-e3kt0a4", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think we'll see a nice rotation of capital back into Bitcoin, we'll recover. And I would think we'll recover by the end of the year. New highs by the end of this year? I think we could.", "timestamp": "0:09:31", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Window is end-2026; not elapsed. As of 2026-06-30 BTC fell to $58,161 (high since made only $66,384, well below the prior ATH ~$126k), so no new highs yet, but recovery/new-ATH by year-end remains undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "A new Bitcoin bull market has begun.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-07", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/BitcoinPierre/status/2063661106564878627", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The next bitcoin bull market has begun.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called a new bull market started 2026-06-07 at $63,303; instead BTC dropped to $58,161 (low $58,000) with high since made only $67,264 β€” a decline, not a bull market." } ] }, { "id": "plan-b", "name": "PlanB", "handles": { "x": "@100trillionUSD", "nostr": null, "youtube": "@PlanB_Bitcoin", "web": "https://planbtc.com/" }, "category": [ "analyst", "model-builder", "kol" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 2100000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://www.speakrj.com/audit/report/100trillionUSD/twitter" }, "score": 37.5, "score_adj": 36.2, "avg_specificity": 44, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 24, "counts": { "correct": 8, "wrong": 14, "partial": 2, "pending": 5 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "$288,000 is the average price for the current 4-year Bitcoin cycle, so we should be somewhere at that level by December 2021.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 288000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-03-16", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://benzinga.com/z/20214455", "source_type": "article", "quote": "288 is the average for this 4-year cycle, so I guessed that we should be somewhere at that level by December this year", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $288,000." }, { "claim_text": "Floor model worst-case monthly Bitcoin closes for 2021: Aug>$47K, Sep>$43K, Oct>$63K, Nov>$98K, Dec>$135K.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 135000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-06-20", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coinspeaker.com/planb-135k-worst-price-bitcoin-2021/amp/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $28,800 in [2021-06-20..2021-12-31], below the $135,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Floor model's $98K November 2021 close will probably be a first miss (after nailing Aug, Sep, Oct). No model is perfect, but this is a big miss and the first in 10y.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2021-11-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-11-25", "specificity": 66, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptopotato.com/planb-november-98k-bitcoin-target-will-probably-be-floor-models-first-miss/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Floor model $98K Nov close will probably be a first miss (after nailing Aug, Sep, Oct).", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted the $98K floor-model Nov 2021 close would miss; BTC closed Nov 2021 around $57k (high_by_deadline only $59,446), far below $98K β€” a clear miss as predicted." }, { "claim_text": "Stock-to-Flow model on track since March 2019, in 1 standard deviation band, aiming for $100K (by year-end 2021).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-12-01", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/amp/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-to-blast-off-to-100-000-following-plan-bs-stock-to-flow-model-202112011231", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Stock-to-Flow model on track since March 2019, in 1 standard deviation band (dark blue), aiming for $100K", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $59,119 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "By the end of 2024 Bitcoin will climb to as high as $100,000; it will reach roughly $532,000 in a slow pump maybe well into 2025; S2F suggests $50,000-$60,000 at the next halving.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-01-04", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://finbold.com/planb-predicts-bitcoin-to-hit-100k-in-2024-500k-in-2025/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "by the end of 2024, the analyst expects the flagship decentralized finance (DeFi) asset to climb to as high as $100,000 ... reach a whopping $532,000 in a slow pump 'maybe well into 2025'", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2024-01-04..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Best-guess Bitcoin scenario 2024-2028: 2024 (EOY) $150,000; 2025 $800,000; 2026 $400,000; 2027 $300,000; 2028 $400,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-06-10", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/planb-issues-epic-yearend-bitcoin-btc-price-prediction-3477941", "source_type": "article", "quote": "My best guess Bitcoin scenario 2024-2028: 2024 (EOY): $0.15million, 2025: $0.8million, 2026: $0.4million, 2027: $0.3million, 2028: $0.4million", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $108,389 through the 2024-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000." }, { "claim_text": "In 2025 Bitcoin will reach an average price of $500,000, with a possibility of touching $1 million and a minimum of $250,000 per coin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-04", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604471353", "source_type": "article", "quote": "in 2025 Bitcoin (BTC) will reach an average price of $500,000. He also believes that there is a possibility of touching the peak price of $1 million with a minimum price per coin of $250,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $500,000." }, { "claim_text": "The current cycle has not yet experienced a real bull phase, let alone a bear phase; the bull market continues. If the doubling pattern holds, Bitcoin could reach $160,000 by the end of 2025.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-03-21", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-price-to-double-in-2025/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "a real bear market usually comes after a true bull run ... Since that divergence has yet to happen in the current cycle, PlanB argues that the market has not experienced a real bull phase, let alone entered a bear phase", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Doubling pattern implied ~$160k by end-2025; high_by_deadline (2025-12-31) was only $126,296, never reached $160k, so the doubling-to-$160k call failed." }, { "claim_text": "According to the S2F chart, BTC will bounce between 50k-200k until 2024; it is likely we hit 200k before 2024.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2023-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-12-25", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/100trillionUSD/status/1474727622009663489", "source_type": "x", "quote": "@Kripto_Poyraz No, according to this chart, btc will bounce between 50k-200k until 2024. We are at 50k, current ath is 69k, and it is likely we hit 200k before 2024.", "timestamp": "2021-12-25T13:03:58.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $52,100 through the 2023-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "$35k floor call: lowest bitcoin price in the run-up to the April 2024 halving will hold above ~$35k (bottom is in).", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 35000, "deadline": "2024-04-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-11-29", "specificity": 74, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/100trillionUSD/status/1729862996036641126", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Interesting!\n- 39% agrees with my $35k floor call\n- 36% hopes for a dip to buy cheap bitcoin\n- 25% is Capo-level bear, expects sub-$30k/20k crash\n- On average the market expects max drawdown to $31k (39%*$38k + 36%*$32.5k + 15%*$25k + 10%*$10k)", "timestamp": "2023-11-29T14:00:52.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's low was $37,500, held at/above $35,000 (through 2024-04-30)." }, { "claim_text": "I would not be surprised if bitcoin will NOT drop below $100k again, as $100k resistance turns into $100k support (5 monthly closes in a row above $100k).", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2026-06-20", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-07", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/100trillionUSD/status/1975490456294498702", "source_type": "x", "quote": "63% of people think bitcoin will drop below $100k.\n\nI would not be surprised if bitcoin will NOT drop below $100k again, as we see $100k resistance turn into $100k support, as Sept close was the 5th monthly close in a row above $100k. Same happened with $10k, $1k, $100 and $10.", "timestamp": "2025-10-07T13:39:05.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $59,073 in [2025-10-07..2026-06-20], below the $100,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will be >$250k in 2026 (next big call after correctly flagging the Nov-2022 $15.5k bottom, $32k+ halving and $100k+ 2025).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-18", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/100trillionUSD/status/1968771199984370072", "source_type": "x", "quote": "βœ… Nov'22 $15.5k was the bottom\nβœ… 2024 halving was above $32k\nβœ… 2025 is above $100k\n\nThese Jan 12, 2023 predictions might seem conservative and obvious now, but at the time ($18k) most people thought I was crazy.\n\nSo what's next? IMO bitcoin will be >$250k in 2026.", "timestamp": "2025-09-18T20:16:46.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-09-18); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Same chart that called $1T mcap / $50k BTC for the 2020-2024 halving period now shows $10T mcap / $500k BTC for 2028 β€” still my view.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": "2028-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-23", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/100trillionUSD/status/1992521484913521070", "source_type": "x", "quote": "My view has not changed since 2019.\n\nIn 2019 btc market cap was $100B ($5k btc). This chart said btc mcap would grow to $1T ($50k btc) in 2020-2024 halving period (blue arrow). It did.\n\nThe same chart shows $10T mcap / $500k btc for 2028 (red arrow). That is still my view.", "timestamp": "2025-11-23T09:11:55.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-11-23); 2028-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "No doubt there will be a new bull market with new ATHs, but IMO bitcoin will go lower first (dip toward the 200-week MA ~$59k / realized price ~$54k) before the next bull market.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-06-20", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-07", "specificity": 76, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/100trillionUSD/status/2041531326415679659", "source_type": "x", "quote": "No doubt there will be a new bull market with new ATHs\n\nbut IMO bitcoin will go lowerπŸ”΅before next bull marketπŸ”΄\n\n* Note color scale is different in this chart: drawdown (BTC price / ATH) instead of relative strength index (RSI). Easier to calculate and easier to understand.", "timestamp": "2026-04-07T14:59:32.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted BTC would go lower toward ~$59k before next bull market; by deadline 2026-06-20 low hit $59,073, dipping to the predicted 200-week-MA zone." }, { "claim_text": "PlanB expects no super cycle this halving cycle, with Bitcoin going up to unimaginable levels after crossing $100k before falling again.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2024", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-11-29", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/SLP325-PlanB---Is-the-S2F-model-still-on-track--What-about-the-supercycle-and-floor-model-e1avt6o", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "we will not have a super cycle this halving cycle. So next year or until 2024 before next halving. Because of greed and fear... once we really have crossed that hundred thousand line, then the FOMO will set in and people will just buy Bitcoin and Bitcoin will go up to unimaginable levels.", "timestamp": "0:14:27", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "By deadline 2024 BTC crossed $100k (high $108,389) with FOMO 'unimaginable levels' as described, but the 'no super cycle... falling again' framing was only partly realized β€” fell back later (to $58k) but after the 2024 window." }, { "claim_text": "PlanB predicts Bitcoin could reach $200k–$300k this bull cycle, consistent with prior cycles going 2–3x above the S2F model level.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2022", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-11-29", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/SLP325-PlanB---Is-the-S2F-model-still-on-track--What-about-the-supercycle-and-floor-model-e1avt6o", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "The bull run isn't finished yet. And I will go beyond the 100K level towards, I mean, 200, 300. You know, in last bull markets, the Bitcoin price went up 2X or 3X or sometimes even more above the stock-to-flow levels. So yeah, we could see 300K Bitcoin.", "timestamp": "0:26:39", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted $200k-$300k by 2022; high_by_deadline (2022) was only $59,250 β€” BTC never approached the band, it crashed to $15,460." }, { "claim_text": "PlanB expects 2022 to be another bull year, 2023 a bear market, and 2025 the next run up.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-11-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/SLP325-PlanB---Is-the-S2F-model-still-on-track--What-about-the-supercycle-and-floor-model-e1avt6o", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "it could be that 2022 is a bull year. I'm sorry, 2022 is a bull year. So next year, another bull run. 2023 is a bear market. 2024, we'll stay in the bear market. And 2025, we'll go up again. I wouldn't be surprised to see that happening like that.", "timestamp": "0:27:45", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Got 2022 as a bear year wrong (called it a bull year; BTC crashed to $15,460) but 2025 'go up again' largely held (rose to $126,296); mixed across the timed sequence." }, { "claim_text": "PlanB's S2F model predicts Bitcoin should average $100,000 for the post-2020-halving period through 2024.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2024", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-11-29", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/SLP325-PlanB---Is-the-S2F-model-still-on-track--What-about-the-supercycle-and-floor-model-e1avt6o", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "after the 2020 halving, the price level should be on average for that halving period. So until 2024 should on average be $100,000. So that is the real proof or validation, if you will, if we track, if the data still fits that very simple linear regression.", "timestamp": "0:33:31", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2021-11-29..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "PlanB predicts Bitcoin will cross $100k by end of 2021, per his simplified S2F model invalidation threshold.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2021", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-11-29", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/SLP325-PlanB---Is-the-S2F-model-still-on-track--What-about-the-supercycle-and-floor-model-e1avt6o", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "if it should be 100k on average, then, well, one and a half year into the halving cycle... it should at least cross that average of 100k... historically looking to last two bull runs 2017 and 2013... that's how I came up with the end of 2021. It should be above 100k.", "timestamp": "0:34:46", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $59,250 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will likely bottom below the Realized Price (~$53k) before the next bull market, as it has in every previous bear market.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 53000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2026-06-25", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/100trillionUSD/status/2070083656534704616", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin will likely bottom BELOW Realized Price (~$53k), just like it did in EVERY previous bear market.\n\nRight now the grey Realized Price line has been glued to the black 200-week Geometric MA line since 2023.\n\nWhat do you think: new low incoming or different this time?", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-25); 2028-12-25 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has a greater than 50% probability of going lower (below 200WMA ~$61k or Realized Price ~$53k) from the current ~$73k level.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 61000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-01", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/100trillionUSD/status/2061349594680684906", "source_type": "x", "quote": "IMO data is telling us that we have not seen bottom formation yet, and that there is a >50% probablility that we go lower (below 200wma $61k or realized price $53k).", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-06-01..2026-07-01], reaching the $61,000 downside target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin would not be surprised to dip below the 200-week MA (~$59k) and Realized Price (~$54k) before the next leg up toward S2F $500k levels.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 59000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-04-01", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/100trillionUSD/status/2039248650086298050", "source_type": "x", "quote": "As said before, I would not be surprised if BTC dips below 200w moving average ($59k) and realized price ($54k) before next leg up towards S2F $500k levels ($250k-$1m range).", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-04-01..2026-07-01], reaching the $59,000 downside target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could continue its yearly doubling pattern: possibly $160k end of 2025, $320k in 2026, $640k in 2027.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 160000, "deadline": "2025", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-07", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/100trillionUSD/status/1964749716966842860", "source_type": "x", "quote": "2 out of 3 people think 2026 will be a bear market where bitcoin crashes. But what if bitcoin continues its yearly doubling, from $20k to $40k in 2023, to ~$80k in 2024, possibly $160k end of 2025, $320k 2026, $640k 2027. Wouldn't surprise me..", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $160,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin average price in the 2024–2028 halving cycle will be around $500k (range $250k–$1m).", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": "2028", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/100trillionUSD/status/1940333708466409570", "source_type": "x", "quote": "FYI: I still believe that bitcoin average price will be ~$0.5m this halving cycle (2024-2028).\n\nNote that S2F prediction is very rough (obviously because the prediction is made only using scarcity/S2F-ratio) with a $0.25m-$1m range (so $0.3m or $0.6m average would also be fine).", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Window is the 2024-2028 halving cycle (deadline 2028), not elapsed; average-price ~$500k call undetermined, though BTC ($58k-$126k range so far) is running far below that level." }, { "claim_text": "Last opportunity to buy bitcoin below $100k, as Saylor's and Trump's planned purchases are imminent.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2024-11-19", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/100trillionUSD/status/1858798306299716034", "source_type": "x", "quote": "You can still front-run Saylor's $42B bitcoin purchase and Trump's $92B bitcoin purchase, but not for long! You have the inside info because you are on X, but only until the normies and tradfi begin to understand. Last opportunity to buy bitcoin below $100k?", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $74,421 in [2024-11-19..2025-08-19], below the $100,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Based on the Bitcoin power law, the compound annual growth rate over the next 10 years is expected to range from roughly 45% down to 25%, factoring in bear markets.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2034", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-02", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/The-Dynamics-of-Bitcoins-Price-Growth-with-PlanC-and-Sminston--SLP621-e2rootk", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "based on the power law um it would still show that we're you know 45 to 25 over the next 10 years so uh and that's compound annual growth rate it uh some people might say that doesn't sound like much but those numbers get very high very quick when you're compounding", "timestamp": "0:04:10", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "10-year CAGR (45%-25%) window runs to 2034, not elapsed; cannot resolve a decade-long compound-growth band yet." }, { "claim_text": "Plan B predicts Bitcoin will reach at least $100,000 by end of 2021, consistent with his Stock-to-Flow model.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-08-13", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD385_-_Plan__Willem_Middelkoop.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I still think it will be $100,000 end of year minimum. And there's lots of time. I mean, we're at 40 now, so that's a 2.5x.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Plan B predicts Bitcoin will not fall to $20,000, dismissing calls for a return to that level.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 20000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2021-08-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD385_-_Plan__Willem_Middelkoop.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I still see people on the internet calling for 20,000 Bitcoin. I don't think that's going to happen.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $15,460 in [2021-08-13..2023-08-13], reaching the $20,000 downside target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will hit S2F target of ~$500k average (range $250k–$1m) in 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2025", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/100trillionUSD/status/1865132344065114177", "source_type": "x", "quote": "My forward guidance for 2024 has not changed since Oct 6, 2022 when bitcoin was 20k (see below):\nβœ…rise into April 2024 halving\nβœ…halving around 55k\nβœ…pump after halving\nβœ…hit 100k in 2024\n- hit S2F target ~500k average (range 250k-1m) in 2025", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-30" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $250,000." } ] }, { "id": "plan-c", "name": "Plan C", "handles": { "x": "@TheRealPlanC", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "on-chain-analyst", "quant-modeler", "cycle-analyst" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 217800, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/TheRealPlanC" }, "score": 21.4, "score_adj": 14.8, "avg_specificity": 30, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 7, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 5, "partial": 1, "pending": 8 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will never go below $70,000.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 70000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2025-11-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://watcher.guru/news/5-bold-bitcoin-predictions-for-2026-including-a-200k-price-target", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin will never go below $70,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-11-09..2026-07-01], below the $70,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Jan 1, 2026 = $130k to $150k.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 130000, "deadline": "2026-01-01", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-09", "specificity": 100, "citation": { "url": "https://watcher.guru/news/5-bold-bitcoin-predictions-for-2026-including-a-200k-price-target", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Jan 1, 2026 = $130k to $150k.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $107,482 through the 2026-01-01 horizon; never reached $130,000." }, { "claim_text": "We will see $200k+ Bitcoin in 2026.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-09", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://watcher.guru/news/5-bold-bitcoin-predictions-for-2026-including-a-200k-price-target", "source_type": "article", "quote": "We will see $200k+ Bitcoin in 2026.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $107,482 since 2025-11-09); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "2026's yearly candle will close green.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://watcher.guru/news/5-bold-bitcoin-predictions-for-2026-including-a-200k-price-target", "source_type": "article", "quote": "2026's yearly candle will close green.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "2026 yearly candle closes 2026-12-31, not elapsed. Open $104,695-ish, currently $58,161 (below open), so red so far, but full year not yet decided." }, { "claim_text": "Assuming this Bitcoin cycle must be EXACTLY the same as the previous Bitcoin bull market could be one of the biggest financial mistakes of the decade.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-traders-betting-on-cycle-history-are-risking-the-biggest-financial-mistake-of-the-decade/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Assuming this Bitcoin cycle must be EXACTLY the same as the previous Bitcoin bull market could be one of the biggest financial mistakes of the decade.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended meta-claim (no deadline) about cycle differing from the prior bull market; BTC's drop to $58,161 from $87,111 suggests divergence, but it's a commentary stance with no defined window to resolve definitively." }, { "claim_text": "The real statistical fair value for Bitcoin today is $101,000, not $130,000 or $118,000.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-09", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://crypto-economy.com/renowned-analyst-reveals-bitcoins-true-value-says-previous-fair-value-was-miscalculated/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The real statistical fair value for Bitcoin today is $101,000, not $130,000 or $118,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "low", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claimed fair value $101k (below $130k/$118k); from $68,432 made BTC fell to $58,161 current and never exceeded $82,814 β€” directionally bearish vs the higher figures was right, price stayed far below $118k-$130k." }, { "claim_text": "If the $61,336 low holds and Bitcoin can reclaim $70k, the odds of the bottom being in increase substantially.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 70000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/2062379625016172891", "source_type": "x", "quote": "If this $61,336 low holds and Bitcoin can reclaim $70,000, the odds of the bottom", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Conditional bottom call failed: the $61,336 low did NOT hold (low_since_made $58,000) and BTC never reclaimed $70k (high_since_made only $67,264), now $58,161 β€” both conditions broke down." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will follow the business cycle expansion soon, as ISM PMI has been above 50 for five straight months.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-01", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/2061491746878480790", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The early expansionary cycle signs continue. \n\nISM PMI > 50 for 5 straight months now. \n\nBitcoin will follow soon.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted BTC would 'follow soon' to the upside; from $71,314 it peaked only at $73,979 then collapsed to $58,161 β€” fell rather than followed expansion higher." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is going through its first supercycle from $16k to $250k+, with the next cycle peak landing in the second half of 2027 to the first half of 2028.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2028-06-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-04", "specificity": 44, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/2051424548055351795", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin is about to go through its first supercycle: from $16,000 to $250,000+. \n\nThe cycle began Nov 2022 at the $16,000 bear market low. \n\nThe first peak was $126,000 and the mid-cycle low was $60,000. \n\nThe next cycle peak will land in the second half of 2027 to the first half", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-05-04); 2028-06-30 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The supercycle/mid-cycle correction is materializing; the business cycle expansion phase is beginning, suggesting Bitcoin's next major upleg is near.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-05", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/2051694462229676487", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The supercycle/mid-cycle correction theory I've been talking about for well over 2 years is beginning to materialize. \n\nThe business cycle is showing signs of getting ready to start its expansion phase. \n\nWe had a very healthy, fast 50% mid-cycle correction/capitulation.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called the correction over and next major upleg near; from $80,908 BTC barely ticked up to $82,814 then dropped to $58,161 (a further ~28% decline) β€” no upleg, deeper drawdown." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's 2026 low is already in; anyone waiting for $30k–$40k will be sidelined.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-04", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/2029301072775278810", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The Bitcoin low for 2026 is in. Those calling for and waiting for $30,000 to $40,000 were wrong and will be sidelined unless they chase. As I said, the max drawdown I expected was 50-60%, not the 80-90% seen in past cycles. $60,000 was a gift (52% down from the ATH), and it", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-03-04..2026-07-01] β€” a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "The 2026 Bitcoin low is likely in the $50k–$63k zone and a revisit lower is not expected.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-25", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/2026729562864840970", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin: I have been saying for a while now that the max drawdown I expected to see was 50% to 60%, not the 80% to 90% from past cycles. From the all-time high, that would be... $50,000 to $63,000. We already reached that zone, and I would not be surprised if the 2026 low", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $50,000 (through 2026-07-01)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will recover in 2026 with year-end price between $90k and $130k, and the true cycle peak will arrive in 2027.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-21", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/2046659507191734696", "source_type": "x", "quote": "For anyone who thinks 2026 is preordained and predestined to be a bear market... Strategy is on pace to buy 60x more Bitcoin in 2026 than they did in 2022 (bear market). This time is different. Recovery in 2026. Year-end between $90k and $130k. True cycle peak in 2027.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Year-end (2026-12-31) $90k-$130k range: window still open (as_of 2026-06-30); BTC has not reached the band yet (high_by_deadline $82,814) but the deadline has not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Once Bitcoin stabilizes above $80k, sideline buyers will push price toward $90k, then a reflexive surge carries it back to $100k.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-05-03", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/2051054661755719909", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Once Bitcoin stabilizes over $80,000, many people on the sidelines are going to start questioning the 4-year cycle and whether the low is already in. Plenty will begin to buy back in, driving the price closer to $90,000, and then a reflexive surge takes us back to $100,000.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-05-03); 2027-05-03 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin going to $250k in 2026 is a small-chance possibility; $40k is near zero probability.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-04", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/2051181099460460960", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin has a better chance of going to $250,000 (small chance) in 2026 then $40,000 (near zero chance).", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-05-04); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "preston-pysh", "name": "Preston Pysh", "handles": { "x": "@PrestonPysh", "nostr": null, "youtube": "@PrestonPysh", "web": "theinvestorspodcast.com" }, "category": [ "podcaster", "investor", "bitcoin-advocate", "vc" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 633200, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/PrestonPysh" }, "score": 66.7, "score_adj": 74.7, "avg_specificity": 21, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 9, "counts": { "correct": 6, "wrong": 3, "partial": 0, "pending": 5 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will perform strongly through the end of 2025 ('by the end of 2025 it's going to be Gang Busters'). Pysh declined to put a specific fiat price on it.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-08-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-liquidity-alarm-bell-preston-pysh-tftc/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think by the end of 2025 it's going to be Gang Busters man I don't know what price it is in Fiat terms", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "By end-2025 BTC went 'gang busters': from $60,862 it rallied to a high of $126,296 by the deadline β€” strong performance as claimed." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's long-run terminal value, once it 'takes over', is on the order of 5 to 10 million dollars per coin in today's purchasing-power terms (with a wide range: 'could be 20, could be one').", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 5000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2024-08-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-liquidity-alarm-bell-preston-pysh-tftc/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "when it takes over the way we understand five to 10 million today is basically one Bitcoin in in my humble opinion we're somewhere in that ballpark okay it could be 20 it could be one", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-08-09); 2029-08-09 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will thrive and yield substantial gains relative to any other asset class as 2023 draws to a close.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2023-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-04-13", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/preston-pysh-is-bullish-on-bitcoin-2023", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I expect bitcoin to thrive and yield substantial gains relative to any other asset class as the year draws to a close.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "By end-2023 BTC rose from $30,407 to high_by_deadline $45,000 (~+48%), substantial gains as the year drew to a close β€” thrived as predicted." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin reaches roughly $500k per coin (Pysh references '500k per BTC' as the level at which skeptics/no-coiners capitulate).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2021-10-22", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PrestonPysh/status/1451638483714551815", "source_type": "x", "quote": "@_globalbust @CNBC No, probably not. I think after 500k per BTC, they start soiling themselves.", "timestamp": "2021-10-22T19:55:59.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-10-22 horizon; never reached $500,000." }, { "claim_text": "Extremely bullish on Bitcoin for 2024 and 2025 ('how bullish I am for 2024 and 2025! Bitcoin is going to melt brains').", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-11-24", "specificity": 14, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PrestonPysh/status/1728075894361632980", "source_type": "x", "quote": "It’s a little incomprehensible how bullish I am for 2024 and 2025! \n\n#Bitcoin is going to melt brains.", "timestamp": "2023-11-24T15:39:33.000Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bullish for 2024-2025: from $37,746 BTC reached $126,296 by end-2025 (~3.3x), a melt-up that matched the extreme-bullish call." }, { "claim_text": "Called the 2022 cycle bottom while deploying his retained cash into BTC: scaled in 15%->30% of 2022 cash savings (late Sep), then on Oct 17 2022 (BTC ~$19k): 'The bottom could be in... My cash is ready.'", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-10-17", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/PrestonPysh/status/1582044442391089153", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The bottom could be in. I've never sold a sat. The cash I currently hold is just from what I've been saving in 2022. If I miss the bottom playing around with timing, it's not a big deal relative to my position size (so far my decision to retain cash in 2022 has been good).", "timestamp": "2022-10-17", "archived_url": "https://x.com/PrestonPysh/status/1575511535161597955", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Oct 2022 'bottom could be in' at $19,550: low_since_made $15,460 (a modest deeper wick) but BTC subsequently ran to $126,296 β€” the cycle bottom call was essentially right." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is not going to fall 90% from here.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-21", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/zmC1Snesy3v9XmIblKhn/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And if it goes down 90%, which I don't think Bitcoin is going to go down 90%, then he would have to pause.", "timestamp": "0:21:31", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "From $112,480, a 90% drop would mean ~$11,248; low_since_made was only $58,000 (~48% down) β€” BTC did not fall 90%, claim held." }, { "claim_text": "Preston expects Bitcoin to do a 5x to 7x run over the coming 12 to 18 months in the current bull market.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-10", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-04-24", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC4226258577.mp3?updated=1735704744", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Let's say we have a 5X or a 7X run. So that's more like 25 to maybe 50 million in buying power in just 12 to 18 months from now, assuming this bull market does what many of us expect it to do in the coming 12 to 18 months.", "timestamp": "0:08:36", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "5x-7x from $64,256 implies ~$321k-$450k by the Oct-2025 deadline; high_by_deadline was only $126,296 (~2x) β€” fell well short of the predicted run." }, { "claim_text": "Preston Pysh believes Bitcoin could reach between $300,000 and $500,000 by December 2025 in the current cycle.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 300000, "deadline": "2025-12", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-03-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC7322278473.mp3?updated=1735704737", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think that in this coming cycle, I think it's totally in the realm of possible to go between $300,000 to $500,000 on the price of Bitcoin within by the call date of December of 2025.", "timestamp": "0:20:24", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$300k-$500k by Dec 2025: window elapsed with high_by_deadline only $126,296 β€” BTC never reached the band, claim failed." }, { "claim_text": "Preston Pysh anticipates Bitcoin will move up in a fairly unprecedented way between now and approximately April 2021.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2021-04-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-02-09", "specificity": 66, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD309_-_American_HODL__Preston_Pysh.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think as we look to the price move that I'm kind of anticipating from now into like April, which I think it's going to be fairly unprecedented how much Bitcoin is going to move in such a short amount of time.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Rallied from $46,515 to $64,899 by the April-2021 deadline (~40% in under three months), the unprecedented short-term up move he anticipated." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will exceed $1 million per coin when the fixed income market fully prices in persistent 5%+ inflation and reallocates capital accordingly.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2021-10-08", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD407_-_Live_in_Nashville.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Price appreciation on Bitcoin is not coming from an ETF. The price appreciation that's going to make Bitcoin scream over a million dollars a coin is going to be when the fixed income market comes to the realization that the 5% inflation is not going away.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2021-10-08); 2027-10-08 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Once Bitcoin reaches approximately $500,000, holders who have been skeptical will need roughly a 10% portfolio position to protect their net worth from Bitcoin's appreciation.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2024-02-01", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD768_-_Pysh__Lechuga.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "What's going to be really hard for people, especially people that are naysayers and think that this is just all like hocus pocus money, is once the price gets to about $500,000, now you need about a 10% position size to protect yourself from Bitcoin taking over, right? So that person that's been very hesitant in saying, this is such a Ponzi, now they're having to not take a 1% position. They're going to have to take a 10%.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-02-01); 2028-02-01 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Preston Pysh argues that Bitcoin will reach a $20 trillion market cap, driven not by bond rotation but by new credit/repo expansion as companies issue bonds to buy Bitcoin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 952000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-02-19", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC1323992618.mp3?updated=1748405389", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "my whole thesis here is that Bitcoin getting to 20 trillion is not going to happen because there's several trillion of bonds being sold, and then buying Bitcoin...It's going to be people basically just call it a new company", "timestamp": "0:28:36", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-02-19); 2029-02-19 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Preston Pysh expects to be accumulating Bitcoin again within 3–6 months (by ~Q4 2022), once central banks pivot away from tightening.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2022-12-20", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-06-20", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD516_-_Preston_Pysh.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "if you talk to me in three months from now or six months from now and i wasn't stacking fiat and i was stacking bitcoin again that shouldn't surprise you", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Resolve by checking whether Preston Pysh publicly announced returning to Bitcoin accumulation by December 2022." } ] }, { "id": "quoth-the-raven", "name": "Quoth the Raven", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Quoth the Raven asserts that Bitcoin will outpace inflation and preserve purchasing power over a 20-year horizon.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2044", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-02-16", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD775_-_Quoth_the_Raven.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I keep my money in Bitcoin because I know Bitcoin will outpace inflation. I know in 20 years it is going to preserve my purchasing power. And that's what I'm going to hand over to my kids.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "20-year horizon runs to 2044; window nowhere near elapsed, so undetermined." } ] }, { "id": "ran-neuner", "name": "Ran Neuner", "handles": { "x": "@cryptomanran", "nostr": null, "youtube": "Crypto Banter", "web": null }, "category": [ "influencer", "trader", "podcast-host", "tv-host" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 968000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitterscore.io/twitter/cryptomanran/" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": 42, "avg_specificity": 38, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 4, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 1, "partial": 2, "pending": 3 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin to $150,000 by 2025. (In the July 2024 CryptoGlobe/Kitco interview pegged the target more precisely: BTC could break above $74,000 within ~two months and reach $150,000 by Q1 2025, driven by political support and macro factors.)", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-09-15", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://www.everand.com/podcast/769470149/Ran-Neuner-Bitcoin-to-150-000-by-2025-Crypto-Expert-Bold-Prediction-Ran-Neuner-Interview", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitcoin to $150,000 by 2025? Crypto Expert Ran Neuner's Bold Prediction Explained!", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000." }, { "claim_text": "The four-year (halving) cycle was always dead; Bitcoin follows a liquidity cycle, not the halving. Global liquidity and PMI are the true drivers of price, not the four-year halving.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-05", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://phemex.com/news/article/ran-neuner-debunks-bitcoins-fouryear-cycle-emphasizes-liquidity-42486", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin's market cycles are dictated by its four-year halving events ... is based on only three data points and is misleading. Global liquidity and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) are the true drivers of Bitcoin's price movements.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC still peaked ~Oct 2025 (~$126,296) then crashed β€” consistent with the traditional ~4-year cycle, so the 'cycle is dead / liquidity-only' thesis is only weakly supported." }, { "claim_text": "2026 is going to be a bull market; this is a great time to be buying. (Said with BTC having crashed in Oct 2025; framed 2025 as a transition year of institutional control.)", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.kitco.com/opinion/investment-trends/2025-12-05/ran-neuner-says-banks-are-reshaping-bitcoin-cycle-after", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "I think 2026 is going to be a bull market ... I think this is a great time to be buying.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Full-year 2026 window open to Dec 31; through 2026-06-30 BTC fell from $89,345 to $58,161 (not yet a bull market) but the year hasn't elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could finish 2025 between $100,000 and $120,000 if the market avoids another shock.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-05", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://www.kitco.com/opinion/investment-trends/2025-12-05/ran-neuner-says-banks-are-reshaping-bitcoin-cycle-after", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "$100,000 to $120,000 if the market avoids another shock", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC reached $94,641 by the 2025-12-31 horizon β€” within 5.4% of $100,000 but short." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin breaks down from its current bear-flag pattern (and if Saylor's Strategy/STRC loses its ability to raise capital and buy BTC), it's going down to the $40,000s or $50,000s.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-24", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-could-fall-40000-saylors-bid-stalls-ran-neuner/", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "It's going down to the $40ks or $50ks if it happens.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "From $76,976 on 2026-05-24 BTC fell into the $50,000s (low $58,000, current $58,161), hitting the predicted $50ks range." }, { "claim_text": "The crypto market is nearing a bottom, with a few more capitulation signals needed.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-27", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/cryptomanran/status/2070770723958759576", "source_type": "x", "quote": "We are nearing a bottom. We need a few more of these.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Made 2026-06-27 at $59,935; only ~3 days elapsed (low $58,056, current $58,161 β€” slightly lower), too soon to confirm a bottom held." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could fall as low as $50,000 if it fails to bounce from the current breakdown level.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-03-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/cryptomanran/status/2037483773609079002", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The bear flag just broke down! \n\nIt's not good.\n\nCould go as low as $50k if we don't bounce soon.\n\nI wouldn't be surprised if we get a big war announcement after market close today. \n\nBe safe!", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-03-27); 2026-12-27 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "raoul-pal", "name": "Raoul Pal", "handles": { "x": "@RaoulGMI", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "realvision.com" }, "category": [ "macro", "liquidity", "investor", "media" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 1300000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://hypeauditor.com/twitter/raoulgmi/" }, "score": 10, "score_adj": 5.5, "avg_specificity": 54, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 5, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 4, "partial": 1, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "In a YouTube discussion (posted with Anthony Pompliano), Pal outlined probabilistic scenarios: a 60% probability that Bitcoin hits $150,000, and a ~20% probability of a 'massive bubble' carrying Bitcoin as high as $250,000 (with a ~20% chance the peak comes faster than expected followed by a decline).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2024-02-01", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.cryptotimes.io/2024/02/01/bitcoins-bold-150k-forecast-by-raoul-pal/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "60% probability that Bitcoin could hit $150,000 ... 20% possibility of Bitcoin undergoing a massive bubble ... potentially surging as high as $250,000", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-02-01); 2027-02-01 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Pal predicted this cycle would feature a 'violent upside' for Bitcoin, with prices well above $250,000, expecting the cycle to peak in late 2025 or early 2026.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2026-06-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-17", "specificity": 54, "citation": { "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/12/42535718/raoul-pal-predicts-violent-upside-for-bitcoin-targets-250000", "source_type": "article", "quote": "He predicts this cycle will feature a 'violent upside' for Bitcoin, with prices well above $250,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-06-30 horizon; never reached $250,000." }, { "claim_text": "At Sui Basecamp, Pal presented a 'liquidity-driven supercycle' thesis: if the ISM Manufacturing Index reaches ~57, his models project Bitcoin could be fairly priced at $450,000 this cycle, potentially into Q1/Q2 of 2026.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 450000, "deadline": "2026-06-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-06", "specificity": 54, "citation": { "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/05/06/bitcoin-price-could-reach-as-high-as-450000-this-cycle-according-to-raoul-pal/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "if the ISM levels reach 57, currently below 50, his internal models project that Bitcoin could touch $450,000 ... MUCH higher by Q1 2026", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-06-30 horizon; never reached $450,000." }, { "claim_text": "Citing the Global M2 money-supply correlation (with a ~3-month lag), Pal said Bitcoin could surpass $140,000 by July, suggesting roughly +28% upside from the level at the time.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 140000, "deadline": "2025-07-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-24", "specificity": 90, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2025/05/24/raoul-pal-predicts-140000-bitcoin-by-july-says-key-metric-flashing-bullish-signal-for-btc/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Raoul Pal Predicts $140,000+ Bitcoin by July, Says Key Metric Flashing Bullish Signal for BTC", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $123,231 through the 2025-07-31 horizon; never reached $140,000." }, { "claim_text": "Pal argued the prolonged sub-50 business cycle, now starting to expand, has probably extended the crypto bull market into 2026 (framed as a working hypothesis, not a firm prediction).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-06-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-03-06", "specificity": 30, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsbtc.com/news/raoul-pal-bitcoin-bull-market-could-extend-to-2026-heres-why/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The business cycle is taking a long time below 50. It's starting to expand now. That has probably extended the cycle into 2026.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bull/high did carry to a new ATH $126,296 in Oct 2025, but by the 2026-06-30 deadline BTC had collapsed to $58,161 β€” the cycle turned rather than cleanly extending through 2026." }, { "claim_text": "Pal said crypto's traditional 4-year cycle has stretched into a ~5-year cycle (debt maturity extended from 4 to 5 years), pushing the real Bitcoin peak to around Q2 2026 rather than 2025.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-06-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-25", "specificity": 44, "citation": { "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/09/25/raoul-pal-says-this-is-a-5-year-market-cycle-heres-the-exact-time-bitcoin-will-peak/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "the debt maturity was extended from four years to five years. This expanded the business cycle by one year ... should now peak in 2026 ... around the second quarter of next year.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "The peak ($126,296) came in Oct 2025, not Q2 2026; by the Q2-2026 deadline BTC was at $58,161, far below the ATH, so the predicted Q2-2026 peak did not occur." } ] }, { "id": "rational-root", "name": "Rational Root", "handles": { "x": "@therationalroot", "nostr": "npub1r00t03pv2kxpes5x676xu3j2e0ag8hmmtzv8et0matxg876tnkgsp5sqe8", "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "on-chain-analyst", "cycle-theorist" ], "followers": { "platform": "nostr", "count": 0, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "nostr follow graph" }, "score": 75, "score_adj": 47.1, "avg_specificity": 23, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 12, "counts": { "correct": 9, "wrong": 3, "partial": 0, "pending": 5 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bull market in full force (with a new ATH on the daily close) β€” asserting the cycle's bull market is active and continuing.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-22", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://njump.me/d39501f1067424b391d7fff40d0051e95fd112ce7c06678f5fdb9a5a543030df", "source_type": "nostr", "quote": "Bull market in full force! #Bitcoin\n\nβœ… Ross freed\nβœ… New ATH on daily close\n\nSBR πŸ‘€πŸš€\n https://m.primal.net/NuFV.png ", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called bull-in-force at $103,667 (2025-01-22); BTC went on to a new ATH of $126,296, confirming continuation." }, { "claim_text": "Short-Term Holder Supply uptrend signals a bull market continuation β€” a forward-looking call that the uptrend continues.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-25", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://njump.me/73c3d3356a70a079394a09da6589bda80874220d0682593f3c4eade2b3f37716", "source_type": "nostr", "quote": "Short-Term Holder Supply continues its uptrend, signaling a bull market continuation (chart from today's newsletter). #Bitcoin \n https://m.primal.net/OAFa.png ", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called bull continuation at $104,734 (2025-01-25); uptrend extended to a new ATH of $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is worth much more than 200K and will probably go into the millions.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-03-15", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/eTuSsJDdUzOZZX64jQyl/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "and Bitcoin is already heavily undervalued. In my opinion, Bitcoin is worth much more than 200K and probably will go into the millions. If you're a holler, have patience for a couple of months and that will be rewarded. The rational route, the big carrot, you are back.", "timestamp": "0:00:27", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-15); 2026-12-15 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "More upside ahead beyond the 120K level; the move can continue higher rather than stopping at 120K.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-16", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/SEGyvuef4GyLPzXSbvLT/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And for me also to believe that indeed this lag still has more upside. So you don't think we're going to stop here at 120K? How sustainable do you think this move is going to be? Yeah, I mean, we might have some short consolidations of a few days or even a week or whatever, but I still think there's going to be more. I think it can still continue to move up further.", "timestamp": "0:06:46", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "From $118,682 (2025-07-16) BTC pushed above 120K to $126,296, the additional upside beyond 120K he called for." }, { "claim_text": "The 100K zone (former resistance / short-term holder cost basis / ~$2T market cap) now becomes a support zone going forward.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2025-07-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/SEGyvuef4GyLPzXSbvLT/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And so I think now this plateau, so for Bitcoin, again, that's like kind of the 100k zone, is now going to function as a support zone in the future.", "timestamp": "0:05:12", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-07-16..2026-07-01], below the $100,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "If the four-year cycle holds, there are roughly five to six months left to make a cycle peak (a top forming in late 2025 / around year-end).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-01-16", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-16", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/SEGyvuef4GyLPzXSbvLT/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "So they've all been kind of at the end of the year. And so that gives us more or less in the four-year cycle still, you know, five to six months time to make a cycle peak if we will stay within the four-year cycle.", "timestamp": "0:11:02", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Cycle peak of $126,296 formed ~Oct 2025 (within the 5-6 month / year-end window) then declined to $80,525 by the 2026-01-16 deadline, matching the predicted late-2025 top." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is still following the four-year cycle and is forming a bear-market bottom; expects it to take a couple more months to bottom (possibly one more leg down) and then slowly grind back up into the hundreds. Holders should have patience for a couple of months and will be rewarded.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-05-15", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-15", "specificity": 76, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/eTuSsJDdUzOZZX64jQyl/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And so I don't know if we'll get another leg down. But I do think we still have a couple of months to go before we really go back up again and go into the hundreds and so forth.", "timestamp": "0:02:23", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Window to 2026-05-15 elapsed; never went 'into the hundreds' β€” high by deadline only $82,814 and price is now $58,161, below the $72,830 at the call (no bottom-and-grind-up materialized)." }, { "claim_text": "The current Bitcoin bear market will end in approximately four months (around October 2026).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-10", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-15", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/therationalroot/status/2066599792382214591", "source_type": "x", "quote": "\"I actually expect this bear market only to last four more months\"", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bear market 'ends ~Oct 2026' window not yet elapsed (as_of 2026-06-30); price still falling at $58,161, outcome undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Based on the Bitcoin four-year spiral chart, the cycle low would likely occur around the end of 2022.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2022", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-09-05", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD550_-_Rational_Root.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "usually at, at the south, which we are kind of approaching, which would mean the end of the year is where we would potentially make a low based on, on this chart.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Cycle low landed end of 2022 β€” low by deadline $15,460 (Nov 2022), as predicted." }, { "claim_text": "Rational Root predicts Bitcoin will reach between $100,000 and $1 million in the next cycle if historical patterns continue.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-06-16", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD672_-_Rational_Root.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "if we keep on following the same pattern, Bitcoin should reach between $100,000 and a million in next cycle, you know, and possibly higher after that, you know, like so that is quite bullish.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC traded into the $100k–$1M band β€” high by 2026 deadline $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "Rational Root says it seems impossible for Bitcoin not to go above $100,000 in the next cycle if the spiral chart pattern holds.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-06-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD672_-_Rational_Root.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "it seems like it's kind of impossible to not go above a hundred thousand. If we follow the same pattern in, in, in this, in the spiral chart.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2023-06-16..2026-07-01], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Rational Root predicts Bitcoin will likely not cross $1 million in the next cycle but possibly in the cycle after that.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-06-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD672_-_Rational_Root.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I actually don't think next cycle, we will necessarily cross the million mark, you know, like that would maybe be for the cycle after that.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-06-16); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Rational Root expects Bitcoin to be around $40,000 at the time of the next halving (approximately April 2024).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 40000, "deadline": "2024-04", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-06-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD672_-_Rational_Root.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I put that at 40,000 because I, I think that's a reasonable price to, to make at, at the next halving.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $73,836 in [2023-06-16..2024-04-28], reaching the $40,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "The Rational Root predicts Bitcoin will eventually reach prices between $1 million and $10 million per coin, at which point it transitions to functioning as a global reserve currency superior to the dollar.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-03-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD784_-_Rational_Root.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think we'll just get to prices from a million to 10 million at some point. And then Bitcoin is going to be such a big currency that it just becomes a better currency than the US dollar, obviously.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$1M–$10M target has no deadline/horizon; high since made only $126,296, nowhere near band β€” window open, undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "The Rational Root predicts the current Bitcoin cycle peak will occur near the end of 2025, consistent with the four-year cycle, though the ETF catalyst may pull the peak forward or produce a double top.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-03-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD784_-_Rational_Root.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "the four-year cycle would imply a peak near the end of 2025. So but perhaps we're kind of shifting a little bit and the ETFs might have speed up things a little bit.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Cycle peak occurred near end of 2025 β€” high by 2025-12-31 deadline $126,296 (Oct 2025), then sustained decline to $58,161." }, { "claim_text": "The Rational Root believes Bitcoin will eventually reach $1 million.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2024-07-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD835_-_Rational_Root.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I believe Bitcoin is going to go eventually to a million dollars as well without the model. And so, you know, I'd rather look at it on a day-to-day basis with on-chain analysis and see where we're at in the cycle.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-07-05); 2029-07-05 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The Rational Root expects Bitcoin to exceed $140,000 this cycle (i.e., by end of the current 2024–2025 bull cycle).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 140000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-07-05", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD835_-_Rational_Root.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I still think we're going to see a continuation. And I expect at least prices above 140K this cycle. But, yeah, we'll see. We'll take 140. It would not be bad, right?", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $140,000." } ] }, { "id": "rekt-capital", "name": "Rekt Capital", "handles": { "x": "@rektcapital", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://rektcapital.substack.com" }, "category": [ "technical-analysis", "cycle-analysis", "halving" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 558000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://tradersunion.com/persons/rekt-capital/" }, "score": 87.5, "score_adj": 76, "avg_specificity": 26, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 12, "counts": { "correct": 10, "wrong": 1, "partial": 1, "pending": 13 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Accounting for historical upside/downside volatility and diminishing returns, Bitcoin could rally to as far as $150,000-$170,000 in Candle 1 of the new four-year cycle (the 2021 bull market).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-01-04", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://rektcapital.substack.com/p/fouryearcycle2", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "Bitcoin could rally to as far as $150,000-$170,000 in Candle 1 ... followed by a Bear Market Candle 2, which historically tends to experience an average correction of -84,5%.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000." }, { "claim_text": "If history repeats and the next bull-market peak occurs 518-546 (~549) days after the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin could peak this cycle around September-October 2025.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-10-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-09-09", "specificity": 36, "citation": { "url": "https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604200628", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If history repeats and the next Bull Market peak occurs 518-546 days after the Halving… That would mean Bitcoin could peak in this cycle…", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Peak occurred in the Sep–Oct 2025 window β€” high by deadline $126,296, followed by lasting decline to $58,161." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is in a Post-Halving Re-Accumulation phase ($60k-$70k range) and has only parabolic upside after this accumulation phase, with a cycle top likely between December 2024 and February 2025 (or, if accumulation extends, by September-October 2025).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-10-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-04-22", "specificity": 36, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/bitcoin-parabolic-upside-current-accumulation/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin has only parabolic upside after the current accumulation phase", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Parabolic upside delivered (rose to $126,296 from $66,859) and top came within the extended Sep–Oct 2025 deadline (peak Oct 2025)." }, { "claim_text": "The ~$93,500 level is a Four-Year Cycle level; history suggests price should be able to find a way to a 12-month (year-end) close above ~$93,500 to finish 2025 green.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 93500, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-25", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsbtc.com/news/will-bitcoin-btc-end-2025-in-green-november-close-may-hold-the-key/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The ~$93500 level happens to be a Four-Year Cycle level. History suggests price should be able to find a way to 12-month close above ~$93500 to finish 2025 green", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $94,641 in [2025-11-25..2025-12-31], reaching the $93,500 target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains perfectly intact (new cycle began January 2025, bull-market peak in candle one in 2025, bear-market acceleration in early/Q2 2026); discussions of the cycle being 'dead' were premature.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://themarketperiodical.com/2025/12/06/is-the-bitcoin-four-year-cycle-broken-analyst-makes-shocking-revelation/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Rekt Capital asserts that Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains perfectly intact and is being followed quite perfectly... The new four-year cycle began in January 2025, with a bull market peak in candle one and a bear market acceleration expected in early 2026 or Q2 2026.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bear-market acceleration in early/Q2 2026 occurred as predicted β€” fell from $97,964 to $58,000 by the 2026-12-31 deadline." }, { "claim_text": "If BTC's 4-year cycle is 'broken,' it's probably just leveling up β€” i.e. the four-year cycle is not dead, only evolving.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-20", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:684cead1e094b:0-is-bitcoin-s-4-year-cycle-broken-and-if-so-where-to-next/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If BTC's 4-year cycle is 'broken,' it's probably just leveling up.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Vague open-ended assertion ('cycle just leveling up') with no deadline/horizon and no price test β€” undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will close below the 50-Month EMA in June, bearish-retest it as resistance in July, and reject in August.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-08-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-27", "specificity": 66, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2070871706927796642", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#BTC \n\nWith the new June Monthly Close just around the corner...\n\nIt's becoming increasingly likely that Bitcoin will close below the 50-Month EMA and likely bearish retest it into new resistance in July and reject in August\n\nThis cycle has repeated 2022 tendencies very closely", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "July retest / August reject window (to 2026-08-31) has not elapsed as of 2026-06-30 β€” only the June close has occurred." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will experience a prolonged Summer relief rally, which will be one of the last major relief rallies before the Bear Market Bottom.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-09-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-26", "specificity": 44, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2070629929260114155", "source_type": "x", "quote": "At some point, Bitcoin will likely enjoy a prolonged Summer relief rally\n\nAnd it will be one of last major relief rallies in this Bear Cycle before a Bear Market Bottom is finally reached\n\n$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Summer relief-rally window (to 2026-09-30) still open; high since made only $60,839 vs $60,003 spot β€” no rally yet but undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's deviation below the 200-week SMA will go even lower over time, implying further price decline below current ~$58k levels.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-25", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2070144642578796633", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#BTC \n\nBitcoin has officially now deviated -6% below the 200-week SMA (orange)\n\nThe 200-week SMA after all tends to act as an unreliable support at this moment in the market cycle\n\nMore, history suggests that this deviation will go even lower over time\n\n$BTC #Bitcoin", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted further decline below ~$58k; BTC fell from $59,704 (made) to $58,161 by 06-30, touching $58,000 low β€” declined as called." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin's quarterly close falls below $59k, then both $59k and $62.4k will act as resistance in early Q3 2026.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 59000, "deadline": "2026-09-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-25", "specificity": 68, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2070143735501869323", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#BTC \n\nIf Bitcoin Quarterly Closes below $59k (green) then both $59k and $62.4k could act as resistance in early Q3\n\nBitcoin is currently at $58.7k\n\n$BTC #Bitcoin", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Conditional resistance behavior at $59k/$62.4k is to be observed in early Q3; deadline 2026-09-30 not yet elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "If the June monthly close is around $62k, July may produce a post-breakdown relief rally, but August will cancel July's gains and send Bitcoin lower.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-08-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-23", "specificity": 66, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2069501829033918628", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#BTC \n\nAt this stage, if June Monthly Closes just like this at $62k then that would confirm the breakdown from the 50-Month EMA\n\nSo it July turns into a green month, then that could see price turn the 50 EMA into new resistance\n\nThen August would cancel out July and send Bitcoin", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "July relief rally / August reversal claim spans through 2026-08-31; July and August have not occurred yet." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's deviation below the 200-week SMA needs to reach between -14% and -31% to mark its absolute Bear Market bottom, implying further downside from the current -4.5% deviation.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-06", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2063365780096336203", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#BTC \n\nBitcoin has only deviated -4.5% below the 200-week SMA (orange)\n\nHistorically, Bitcoin has deviated anything between -14% to -31% below the 200-week SMA to find its absolute Bear Market Bottom\n\n$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Calls for -14% to -31% deviation below 200-week SMA to mark the bottom; that deep band has not been reached and the open-ended bear-bottom window hasn't elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Over the next five months, Bitcoin may only have one or two more periods of Bearish Acceleration before reaching the final Bear Market bottom.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-11-06", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-06", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2063298993015210354", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#BTC \n\nOver these next 5 months or so, Bitcoin may only have 1 or max. 2 more periods of Bearish Acceleration before the final Bear Market bottom is", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "5-month timing call for final bear bottom runs to 2026-11-06; window still open." }, { "claim_text": "Over the next approximately four months, BTC will keep declining as investors remain risk-off.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-10-09", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-09", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2064333664217907653", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Over the next ~4 months, investors will keep being Risk-Off & #BTC will keep declining\n\n$BTC #USDC #Bitcoin", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'Keep declining over ~4 months' runs to 2026-10-09; price is down so far ($61,686β†’$58,161) but the multi-month window hasn't elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Any BTC rebound in the near term will be much weaker than the earlier 2026 relief rally and will demonstrate $60k as a progressively weakening support before eventual breakdown.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-10", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2064752260601495895", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Any rebound in the meantime will be much weaker than the relief rally we saw earlier this year to highlight $60k as a progressively weakening support before breakdown over time", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted $60k breaks as weakening support; after rebounding to $67,264 BTC broke below $60k to a $58,000 low / $58,161 current β€” breakdown occurred." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has approximately 120 more days of bearish price action ahead before a meaningful recovery.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-10-08", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-10", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2064754016676913659", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#BTC\n\nSurvive the next ~120 days of red\n\nTo thrive in the 1000+ days of green from Bear Market Bottom into Bull Market Peak\n\n$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "~120 days of red runs to 2026-10-08; window still open." }, { "claim_text": "June 2026 will likely be a red month and July 2026 will likely be a green month for Bitcoin.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-07-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-12", "specificity": 66, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2065407712129593816", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#BTC \n\nJune is probably going to be a red month\n\nJuly is probably going to be a green month\n\n$BTC #Bitcoin", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "June red leg is on track ($63,538β†’$58,161), but July-green leg's window runs to 2026-07-31 and is undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "The current bounce will most likely demonstrate that $60,000 is a progressively weakening support for Bitcoin.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-12", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2065407125262643347", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#BTC \n\nThis current bounce is most likely going to demonstrate how $60,000 is a progressively weakening support\n\n$BTC #Bitcoin", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-06-12..2026-07-01] β€” a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "There is still time for BTC to deviate around -30% below the 200-week SMA, especially if the current rebound forms another Macro Lower High.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-15", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2066568715496198348", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#BTC \n\nAt this moment, Bitcoin is rebounding from the 200-week SMA\n\nIn past cycles however, #Bitcoin would deviate around -30% below the 200 SMA\n\nThere's still time for this $BTC downside deviation to take place, especially if this rebound forms yet another Macro Lower High soon", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Calls for ~-30% deviation below 200-week SMA 'over time'; deep deviation not reached and open-ended window hasn't elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin still has a bit more downside to go in this Bear Market, as its current -14% deviation below 2021 ATH has not yet matched the -22% deviation seen in the 2022 Bear Market.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-20", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2068364276813762721", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#BTC\n\nBitcoin has deviated -14% below its 2021 old All Time Highs in this current 2026 Bear Market\n\nStill a little off the -22% deviation below 2017 old All Time Highs back in the 2022 Bear Market\n\nHistory suggests there's still time left and a bit more downside to go\n\n$BTC", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted more downside to go; BTC fell from $64,223 (made) to $58,161 by 06-30 β€” further downside materialized." }, { "claim_text": "If June closes red and confirms a loss of the 50-Month EMA as support, July will likely see a relief rally that turns the EMA into resistance.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-07-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-20", "specificity": 66, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2068399534347325726", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#BTC \n\nHistory suggests that whatever June does, July will do the opposite\n\nTherefore if June is red, July will likely be green\n\nSo if June ends the month like this, it will confirm a loss of the 50-Month EMA as support\n\nAnd so July will likely relief rally to turn the EMA into", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "June-red condition on track, but predicted July relief rally has a 2026-07-31 deadline and July hasn't occurred yet." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will bottom in 2027 and not reclaim $93,500 until a 2028 trend reversal.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 93500, "deadline": "2028", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2019382192670212141", "source_type": "x", "quote": "It’s 2026\n\nLooks like it indeed is the year of the Bitcoin Bear Market\n\n2027 will be the Bottoming Out year for #BTC\n\nAnd 2028 will be the Trend Reversal year where $93500 would be finally broken\n\n$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-02-05); 2028-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The $60,000 low was not the bear-market bottom, implying Bitcoin makes a new low below it.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-05-15", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2055292927803269617", "source_type": "x", "quote": "#BTC \n\nHistory suggests the low at $60,000 wasn't the Bear Market bottom\n\n$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-05-15..2026-07-01], reaching the $60,000 downside target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will only bounce briefly at the 50-Month EMA then break down and continue macro downside.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-03", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2062147302886695352", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC\n\nBitcoin has reached the 50-Month EMA (purple)\n\nAnd indeed price is now bouncing from here but this overall reaction is likely to be limited\n\nOver time, Bitcoin is likely to breakdown from this EMA and continue macro downside in this Bear Market\n\n#BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted limited bounce at 50-Month EMA then breakdown/macro downside; BTC bounced briefly to 67,416 then broke down to 58,000, now 58,161 vs 64,040 at made β€” downside continued as called." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will see only a limited reaction at the 50-Month EMA before breaking down and continuing macro downside.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-02", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2061838890315469027", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC\n\nBitcoin is getting closer and closer to the 50-Month EMA (purple)\n\nThere could be a limited reaction from there on contact but over time Bitcoin is likely to breakdown from this EMA and continue macro downside in this Bear Market\n\n#BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted limited reaction at EMA then breakdown/macro downside; from 66,658 BTC fell to 58,000 low and sits at 58,161 β€” net downside materialized as forecast." } ] }, { "id": "ricardo-salinas", "name": "Ricardo Salinas Pliego", "handles": { "x": "@RicardoBSalinas", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.gruposalinas.com.mx" }, "category": [ "billionaire", "investor", "bitcoin-advocate" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 2200000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/ricardobsalinas" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 4 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will go up at least 14 times (means $1.516 Million USD) to catch up with Gold --- and then it will continue to outperform. Bookmark this post", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1516000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2025-10-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/RicardoBSalinas/status/1978939432083378580", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin will go up at least 14 times ( means $1.516 Million USD) to catch up with Gold --- and then it will continue to outperform. Bookmark this post", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $116,410 since 2025-10-16); 2030-10-16 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Asked about peers' price predictions, Salinas said Bitcoin will eventually reach $1 million per coin but declined to give a timeframe: 'So it will be a million dollars. I just don't know when.'", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-06-17", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/06/17/mexican-billionaire-with-70-of-his-investment-portfolio-in-bitcoin-says-it-s-better-than-real-estate", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "So it will be a million dollars. I just don't know when.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $66,384 since 2026-06-17); 2031-06-17 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "On Bitcoin investing horizon: 'For Bitcoin, you have to think (about) 10 years and buy everything you can; it's not going anywhere except up.' A long-term bullish directional call made when BTC was around $87k.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-03-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://decrypt.co/308637/buy-everything-you-can-mexican-billionaire-ricardo-salinas-now-holds-70-of-personal-portfolio-in-bitcoin", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "(For) Bitcoin, you have to think (about) 10 years and buy everything you can ... it's not going anywhere except up.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Explicit 10-year horizon (made 2025-03-04) is nowhere near elapsed; despite a peak of 126,296, BTC is now 58,161 (below 87,250 entry), so the long-term call remains undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Christmas video: 'Steer clear of fiat money. Whether it's the Dollar, the Euro, or the Yen - it's all the same. It's fake money made of paper lies.' Advised investors to buy Bitcoin instead of fiat. A directional bull-on-Bitcoin / bear-on-fiat call.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-12-25", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsbtc.com/news/billionaire-ricardo-salinas-forget-fiat-buy-bitcoin-bitcoin-instead/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Steer clear of fiat money. Whether it's the Dollar, the Euro, or the Yen -it's all the same. It's fake money made of paper lies. Central banks are producing more than ever.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "low", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended bull-on-Bitcoin/bear-on-fiat call from 2021-12-25; BTC ran to 126,296 but is now 58,161 vs 50,428 at made β€” net gain modest and thesis is long-term/ongoing, no fixed window elapsed." } ] }, { "id": "robert-breedlove", "name": "Robert Breedlove", "handles": { "x": "@Breedlove22", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://whatismoney.info" }, "category": [ "podcaster", "investor", "bitcoin-maximalist", "commentator" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 451800, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/Breedlove22" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 37, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 2, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could break $300,000 in this market cycle β€” '$307,000 to be exact' β€” reaching a new all-time high around mid-October 2021 (roughly 510 days after the 2020 halving).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 307000, "deadline": "2021-10-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-05-21", "specificity": 74, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tokenpost.com/Bitcoin-BTC-could-reach-an-all-time-high-above-300K-by-mid-October-says-crypto-analyst-8595", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Historically, roughly 510 days after the halving event, the market tends to put in a new all-time high price. That would put us around mid-October.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $66,999 through the 2021-10-31 horizon; never reached $307,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will be nominally valued at $12.5 million per coin by the end of the decade (by 2031), equivalent to about $1 million in 2021 purchasing power, driven by exponential M2 money-supply expansion / USD debasement.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 12500000, "deadline": "2031-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-05-21", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/719833/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin will actually be nominally valued at $12.5 million US by the end of the decade.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2021-05-21); 2031-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin appears to be near a cycle bottom / on the cusp of a bull market: miner breakeven cost data (which 'accurately identified six bottoms between 2016 and 2024') is signalling another bottom, implying a Bitcoin price increase could be imminent. 'In a rational economy, assets rarely trade below their cost of production.'", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-02", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-796529-20250502", "source_type": "article", "quote": "In a rational economy, assets rarely trade below their cost of production.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "low", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called a near cycle bottom / imminent rise from 96,930 on 2025-05-02; BTC instead fell to 58,000 and trades at 58,161 now β€” no bottom held, opposite of the directional call." } ] }, { "id": "robert-kiyosaki", "name": "Robert Kiyosaki", "handles": { "x": "@theRealKiyosaki", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.richdad.com/" }, "category": [ "author", "personal-finance", "macro-permabull" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 2900000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://hypeauditor.com/twitter/therealkiyosaki/" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 46, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 6, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 6, "partial": 0, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "BITCOIN to $100k by June 2024.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2024-06-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-02-18", "specificity": 68, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptopotato.com/heres-when-bitcoin-btc-will-tap-100k-according-to-robert-kiyosaki/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Exact Tweet Quote: \"BITCOIN to $100k by June 2024.\" Tweet Date: February 18, 2024", "timestamp": "2024-02-18", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $73,836 through the 2024-06-30 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "BITCOIN will be $350,000 by August 25, 2024. It's a prediction. It's speculation, it's an opinion, but it's not a lie.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 350000, "deadline": "2024-08-25", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-06-05", "specificity": 100, "citation": { "url": "https://watcher.guru/news/robert-kiyosaki-predicts-bitcoin-to-hit-350000-heres-when", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Prediction: Bitcoin will reach $350,000 by August 25, 2024. Tweet Posted: June 5, 2024. Exact Tweet Quote: \"BITCOIN will be $350,000 by August 25, 2024 is not a lie. It's a prediction. It's speculation, it's an opinion...\"", "timestamp": "2024-06-05", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $71,974 through the 2024-08-25 horizon; never reached $350,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin may soon top $500,000 in 2025 (and $1 million by 2030).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-09-20", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/robert-kiyosaki-predicts-bitcoin-could-hit-500k-by-2025-1m-by-2030/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Exact Quote from X Post: \"The good news is, Jim Rickards' prediction means bitcoin may soon top $500,000 in 2025 and $1 million by 2030.\" Publication Date: September 21, 2024", "timestamp": "2024-09-20", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $500,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $1 million per coin by 2030.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2030-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-09-20", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/robert-kiyosaki-predicts-bitcoin-could-hit-500k-by-2025-1m-by-2030/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Exact Quote from X Post: \"The good news is, Jim Rickards' prediction means bitcoin may soon top $500,000 in 2025 and $1 million by 2030.\"", "timestamp": "2024-09-20", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-09-20); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "My target price for Bitcoin is $250,000 in 2025. Buy more. Do not sell.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-17", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.cryptotimes.io/2025/05/17/bitcoin-price-will-hit-250k-by-2025-robert-kiyosaki/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Exact Price Prediction: $250,000 by 2025. \"The Marxist Central Bank system is crashing... Keep HODLing. I am and buying more Bitcoin.\" Additional Direct Quote: \"Buy more. Do not sell.\" Article Publication Date: May 17, 2025. Deadline: 2025", "timestamp": "2025-05-17", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $250,000." }, { "claim_text": "My target price for Bitcoin is $250,000 in 2026. (A crash is coming; still buying gold, silver, Bitcoin and Ethereum.)", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-09", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://www.outlookmoney.com/cryptocurrency/robert-kiyosaki-predicts-bitcoin-could-reach-250k-by-2026-amid-market-volatility", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Exact Quote from X Post: \"My target price for [Bitcoin] is $250,000 in 2026.\" Tweet Date: November 9, 2025", "timestamp": "2025-11-09", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $107,482 since 2025-11-09); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is about to blast off (implying significant upside from current levels).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-02", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/theRealKiyosaki/status/2028382654945779882", "source_type": "x", "quote": "GOLD booms $128 in one day.\n\nBetter news is silver and Bitcoin to blast off.\n\nHang on.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted Bitcoin 'about to blast off' from 68,832 on 2026-03-02; it managed only 82,814 high before collapsing to 58,000 and now 58,161 β€” net down, no blast-off sustained." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will rise significantly after the US dollar crashes and the Fed begins large-scale money printing, justifying his purchase at $67k.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-20", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/theRealKiyosaki/status/2024966297105432886", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Although Bitcoin is crashing I bought one more whole Bitcoin\nfor $67k.\n\nWhy? \n\nTwo reasons: \n\n# 1: Because the Big Print will begin when the US debt crashes the dollar and \"The Marxist Fed\" begins printing trillions in fake dollars.\n\n#2: The magical 21 millionth Bitcoin is", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bought at 67k expecting significant rise; BTC peaked at 82,814 then fell to 58,000 and trades 58,161, below his 67,984 entry β€” directional bull call did not pan out." } ] }, { "id": "robert-prechter", "name": "Robert Prechter", "handles": { "x": "@elliottwaveintl", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://robertprechter.com/" }, "category": [ "technical-analyst", "elliott-wave", "permabear" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 51300, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/elliottwaveintl" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "In a late-2023 interview with Alessio Rastani, Prechter stated that January 2022 (coinciding with the peak of the Dow and S&P) marked the END of Bitcoin's bull market and that Bitcoin was now in a bear market facing significant challenges. (Forward-looking directional/timing call: Bitcoin's bull is over / it is in a bear market.)", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-11-22", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://insidebitcoins.com/news/bitcoins-future-predictions-and-analysis-by-robert-prechter", "source_type": "article", "quote": "A critical point in Bitcoin's timeline, according to Prechter, was January 2022, coinciding with the peak of major stock indices like the Dow Jones and S&P, which he suggested marked the end of Bitcoin's bull market. ... Prechter's analysis presented a sobering view of Bitcoin's future, suggesting that Bitcoin, now in a bear market, could face significant challenges ahead.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "low", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claimed Bitcoin's bull ended Jan 2022 and it was in a bear market; after his 2023-11-22 call (37,424) BTC rallied to 126,296, decisively a new bull, not a continuing bear." } ] }, { "id": "ryan-gentry", "name": "Ryan Gentry", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has roughly another 100X of upside remaining from its current ~$100K / $1.8 trillion level to fulfill its mission as a global reserve asset.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2025-12-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/q7oXbMImGAwnXXCT6pVQ/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "We're over a hundred K. ... We're not done. 100K is $1.8 trillion is not the terminal end of Bitcoin, right? Like we got another 100X to go to really fulfill the mission.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-12-11); 2030-12-11 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "ryan-sean-adams", "name": "Ryan Sean Adams", "handles": { "x": "@RyanSAdams", "nostr": null, "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/@Bankless", "web": "https://www.bankless.com" }, "category": [ "investor", "podcaster", "newsletter-author", "eth-maximalist" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 276700, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/RyanSAdams" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "On Bitcoin's 2026 trajectory: it's unlikely 2026 produces big moves in either direction β€” no large red (down) candle and no large green (multiply-over) candle for BTC on the year. Adams: \"I think it's unlikely that we'll see huge red bars in 2026, or super green bars that multiply several times over like in the early days,\" and on the podcast \"It's hard to see big candles with Bitcoin ever.\"", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-24", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.bankless.com/podcast/12-big-crypto-predictions-for-2026-ryan-david", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "It's hard to see big candles with Bitcoin ever. ... It's also hard to see a big [red/green] candle next year.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "2026 full-year call (deadline 2026-12-31) β€” window still open at as_of 2026-06-30; YTD BTC ranged 58,000–97,964 vs 87,609 start, no decisive huge candle yet but year not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Adams does not expect 2026 to be a secular bull market for crypto/Bitcoin (\"I don't think 2026 is going to be a secular bull market\"), expressed in the context of arguing Digital Asset Treasuries won't be a major 2026 factor.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-24", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.bankless.com/podcast/12-big-crypto-predictions-for-2026-ryan-david", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "DATs are not going to be a major factor in 2026, because I don't think 2026 is going to be a secular bull market.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Call that 2026 won't be a secular bull market resolves 2026-12-31; window still open, BTC down YTD (87,609β†’58,161) consistent with no bull market but not yet final." } ] }, { "id": "ryan-selkis", "name": "Ryan Selkis", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 24, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Ryan Selkis says Bitcoin reaching $250,000–$300,000 would put it at parity with the gold investment market cap (excluding jewelry) at current prices.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-01-15", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD450_-_Ryan_Selkis.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think it's more like, you know, $250,000 to $300,000 gets you to parity with gold as an investment at today's prices.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended 250k–300k target; BTC's high was 126,296, never reached the band, and no window has elapsed, so the range call remains undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Ryan Selkis believes Bitcoin could reach $250,000 this cycle before potentially correcting back to $100,000, though he personally does not expect that boom-and-bust outcome.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2022-01-15", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD450_-_Ryan_Selkis.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "we could see it this cycle and then have a pretty big come down, right, all the way back to $100,000. But, I mean, I don't think we want that for a whole slew of reasons... you go up to $250,000 Bitcoin and then down to $100,000", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $73,836 through the 2024-07-15 horizon; never reached $250,000." } ] }, { "id": "saifedean-ammous", "name": "Saifedean Ammous", "handles": { "x": "@saifedean", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://saifedean.com" }, "category": [ "author", "economist", "bitcoin-educator" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 421000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/saifedean/realtime" }, "score": 100, "score_adj": 100, "avg_specificity": 28, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 3, "counts": { "correct": 3, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will NOT hit $1 million in 90 days; the dollar cannot hyperinflate that quickly. (Rejecting Balaji Srinivasan's bet that BTC would reach $1M within 90 days.)", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2023-06-20", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-03-22", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tronweekly.com/the-unlikely-1m-bitcoin-bet-saifedean-ammous/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I feel dirty sounding bearish on bitcoin, but I do not think bitcoin will hit $1m in 90 days & and I do not think the dollar can possibly hyperinflate this quickly.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said BTC would NOT hit $1M within 90 days (by 2023-06-20); high_by_deadline was only 31,050 β€” far below $1M, so the rebuttal was correct." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is on 'very shaky ground' as a new price top nears and the bull market is coming to an end; warned that BTC could still crash 70-80% from the peak ('Bitcoin has done -70% and -80% before, and it can do it again').", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-06-03", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:f3b819c2f094b:0-bitcoin-on-very-shaky-ground-as-new-btc-price-top-nears-ammous/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "If your business model can't handle a -80% Bitcoin drawdown, rework your business model right now, because I think we're getting toward the very shaky ground of the top and the fall from it.", "timestamp": "Coin Stories podcast (Natalie Brunell), June 3, 2025; article published June 4, 2025", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Top did near and the bull ended: BTC peaked at $126,296 then fell to $58,161 (~54% drawdown) as warned; the specific -70/-80% was a conditional caveat, but the core 'top near, fall coming' thesis came true." }, { "claim_text": "Saifedean believes Bitcoin is near the cycle top and expects it to peak within 12-18 months of the April 2024 halving (i.e., by roughly October 2025).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-06-03", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/saifedean-is-bitcoin-nearing-cycle-top-corporate-treasuries-wealth-concentration-gold-standard", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think so. I mean, historically, this is usually the time when we get the top. Between one year and 18 months after the halving. But we're actually underperforming the last halving cycles.", "timestamp": "0:11:09", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Cycle peaked at $126,296 within 2025 (high_by_deadline = $126,296), inside the 12-18 month post-halving window; price has since collapsed to $58,161, confirming that was the top." }, { "claim_text": "Saifedean thinks there is a good chance Bitcoin goes over $200,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2025-06-03", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/saifedean-is-bitcoin-nearing-cycle-top-corporate-treasuries-wealth-concentration-gold-standard", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "No, we might. But I think there's a good chance we go over 200K. But I think we're getting to that point where it's going to be very volatile both ways.", "timestamp": "0:11:58", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-06-03); 2027-06-03 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "samson-mow", "name": "Samson Mow", "handles": { "x": "@Excellion", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "jan3.com" }, "category": [ "entrepreneur", "bitcoin-maximalist", "nation-state-adoption" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 365000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitterscore.io/twitter/Excellion/" }, "score": 20, "score_adj": 15.2, "avg_specificity": 32, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 5, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 4, "partial": 0, "pending": 3 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Once Bitcoin surpasses its previous all-time high (~$73,750), a recursive demand shock kicks in and it goes 'up all the way to $0.1M' ($100,000).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2024-06-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/heres-when-bitcoin-will-hit-100000-according-to-samson-mow", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Once we surpass the previous #Bitcoin ATH, recursive demand shock kicks in and it's up all the way to $0.1M.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $109,358 in [2024-06-05..2025-03-05], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Main prediction: the run-up to $1M Bitcoin happens in 'days to weeks' (catalyzed by the spot ETF supply crunch); starting point TBD.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2024-01-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coingape.com/bitcoin-btc-price-to-touch-1m-in-days-to-weeks-samson-mow/", "source_type": "x", "quote": "My main prediction is the run up to $1M happens in days to weeks. Starting point TBD.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $73,836 through the 2024-10-14 horizon; never reached $1,000,000." }, { "claim_text": "New Year prediction #1 for 2025: Bitcoin will finally skyrocket to $1 million this year.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-01", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/01/01/bitcoin-to-reach-1-million-in-2025-samson-mow-predicts-microstrategy-surge-ahead/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin to Reach $1 Million in 2025, Samson Mow Predicts; MicroStrategy Surge Ahead", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $1,000,000." }, { "claim_text": "Samson's Predictions for 2026: $1.33M Bitcoin (plus MSTR to $5,000, at least 1 country launches Bitcoin Bonds, Elon Musk goes hard into BTC, Bitcoin outperforms metals).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1330000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-10", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://bitbo.io/news/mow-musk-bitcoin-2026/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "bitcoin will reach $1.33 million in 2026. That would be about a 1,367% increase from around $90,596.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2026-01-10); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "There is strong consensus from almost every price model that Bitcoin reaches $1.0M in 2031-2033, mechanically via either +150k/year steady or 'Multi Omega' years plus some sideways years.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2033-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-12", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/bitcoin-to-1-million-samson-mow-names-exact-dates", "source_type": "x", "quote": "There is strong consensus from almost every price model that Bitcoin reaches $1.0M in 2031-2033. What does that look like mechanically? 1) +150k per year steady 2) Multi Omega years + some sideways years", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2026-01-12); 2033-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will rise toward maximum-pain options expiry level at $72,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 72000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-06-25", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Excellion/status/2070029935037608295", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Max pain is at $72k.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $61,868 since 2026-06-25); 2027-06-25 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The Bitcoin price bottom is already in, implying it goes up from here.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-28", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/Excellion/status/2071084649216909578", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I find it incredibly interesting how some people are so certain that the bottom is coming in 4 months because β€œcycles.” But we had an ATH 37 days before the halving, so it would seem even if you believe in cycles you should reason out the cycles accelerated. The bottom is in.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Made 2026-06-28 calling 'the bottom is in' at $59,474, but BTC immediately made lower lows to $58,056 and sits at $58,161 below his level." }, { "claim_text": "Samson Mow predicts Bitcoin will hit $1 million in 2024, or failing that, in 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-03-12", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD785_Samson_Mow.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think this year we're going to hit a million. If not this year, next year, but it's coming very soon.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $1,000,000." } ] }, { "id": "scott-melker", "name": "Scott Melker", "handles": { "x": "@scottmelker", "nostr": null, "youtube": "@ScottMelker", "web": "https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io/" }, "category": [ "trader", "podcaster", "influencer" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 950000, "as_of": "2024-05-01", "source": "https://iq.wiki/wiki/scott-melker-the-wolf-of-all-streets" }, "score": 25, "score_adj": 23.3, "avg_specificity": 27, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 10, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 7, "partial": 1, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will go to $200,000, $230,000, $235,000 (stated in a May 2021 Business Insider interview, framed as a current-cycle target alongside an ETH 'this cycle' call to ~$10,000).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2021-05-15", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/scott-melker-talks-trading-strategy-154000033.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "And I think that bitcoin will go to $200,000, $230,000, $235,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $73,836 through the 2024-05-15 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "I would not be surprised at all to see bitcoin trading in six figures within the next six to 12 months (said mid-August 2021 with BTC ~$47,000).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2022-08-14", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-08-14", "specificity": 70, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/wolf-of-all-streets-trader-bitcoin-100k-within-6-to-12-months/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I would not be surprised at all to see bitcoin trading in six figures within the next six to 12 months, or ethereum even pushing towards $10,000 in that time.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2022-08-14 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Crypto market outlook is 'up, up, and up'; 'I don't have fears of a crypto winter' (Feb 2022, following the 40-year-high CPI print).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-02-10", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/video/fm-0210-markets-155758459.html", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "Up, up, and up ... I don't have fears of a crypto winter", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said 'no fears of a crypto winter' at $43,528 in Feb 2022, but a full crypto winter followed β€” BTC crashed to $15,460." }, { "claim_text": "Gun to my head, I believe that we are just at the start of a major bull run for both bitcoin and the broader crypto market (March 2024, with a warning of an eventual bubble that would pop).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-03-10", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/wolf-of-all-streets-sees-start-of-major-bull-run-for-bitcoin-and-broader-crypto-market-warns-of-a-huge-bubble/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Gun to my head, I believe that we are just at the start of a major bull run for both bitcoin and the broader crypto market in general.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called the start of a major bull run at $69,032 in Mar 2024; BTC subsequently rallied to an ATH of $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "Those $100,000 in 2024 and $250,000 in 2025 predictions are 'more realistic than ever' β€” Bitcoin to reach $100k by end of 2024 (April 2024, citing spot-ETF-driven institutional inflows).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-04-08", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/250000-bitcoin-price-in-2025-more-realistic-than-ever-analyst-says", "source_type": "article", "quote": "It's starting to seem like those $100,000 in 2024 and $250,000 predictions in 2025 are more realistic than ever.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2024-04-08..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Those $100,000 in 2024 and $250,000 in 2025 predictions are 'more realistic than ever' β€” Bitcoin to reach $250k by end of 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-04-08", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/250000-bitcoin-price-in-2025-more-realistic-than-ever-analyst-says", "source_type": "article", "quote": "It's starting to seem like those $100,000 in 2024 and $250,000 predictions in 2025 are more realistic than ever.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $250,000." }, { "claim_text": "$250K this year, totally possible β€” Bitcoin can reach $250,000 by end of 2025, citing declining volatility and growing institutional (pension fund/ETF) participation (reiterated mid-May 2025).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-17", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:2dda935d9094b:0-bitcoin-to-250k-in-2025-totally-possible-crypto-analyst-scott-melker/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "250K this year, totally possible", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $250,000." }, { "claim_text": "The four-year cycle is largely broken; the current ~50% drawdown is a bull-market dip (like summer 2021), not an 85-90% bear-market collapse, and he has 'been buying quite a lot in the 60s' (April 2026, BTC in the low $60,000s).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/32654906/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The cycle is largely broken. For those who believe we're about to get an 85 or 90% trip to the downside like previous bear markets, I would ask why we would get commensurate downside if we never got the proportional upside. ... I've been buying quite a lot in the 60s.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "His 'not 85-90% down' call holds (drawdown stayed ~54%, low $58,000), but the 'bull-market dip' recovery never came β€” price fell further from $67,292 to $58,161 with no rebound." }, { "claim_text": "Scott argues Bitcoin is likely bottoming as it visits the 200-week MA for the 4th time in history.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-15", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/scottmelker/status/2066464186859761927", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC WEEKLY \n\nI have been consistently making the argument that Bitcoin is likely β€œbottoming.” \n\nThis is based on multiple ideas, notably that price was visiting the 200 weekly MA for the 4th time in history. It has only traded below it for more than a week in 2022, after FTX", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called Bitcoin 'likely bottoming' at $66,277 on 2026-06-15, but it then made lower lows to $58,000 and sits at $58,161, well below." }, { "claim_text": "Scott calls the 200-week MA revisit the bottom, noting every cycle except 2022-23 this level marked the bottom.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 55000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2026-06-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/scottmelker/status/2062489496684290280", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$BTC WEEKLY\n\nBitcoin has officially revisited the 200 MA after breaking down from the 50 MA. It has risen from $55K when I first posted this to $62K.\n\nIt has only traded below it for one stretch in history - June 2022 to March 2023.\n\nEvery other cycle, this was the bottom.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $55,000 (through 2026-07-01)." }, { "claim_text": "Scott makes his technical case that Bitcoin has bottomed.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-03", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/scottmelker/status/2062245046905098334", "source_type": "x", "quote": "My technical case for a Bitcoin bottom.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Technical case for a bottom at $64,040 on 2026-06-03 failed β€” BTC subsequently fell to $58,000 and is at $58,161." } ] }, { "id": "simon-dixon", "name": "Simon Dixon", "handles": { "x": "@SimonDixonTwitt", "nostr": null, "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_wNYJCyycXXPmWni2JNZhQ", "web": "https://www.simondixon.com/" }, "category": [ "investor", "entrepreneur", "macro-analyst" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 272300, "as_of": "2026-06-24", "source": "https://x.com/SimonDixonTwitt" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 1, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Simon Dixon, while a strong long-term Bitcoin believer, says he doesn't have any set price predictions; he thinks in terms of four-year cycles around the halvings and (as of early 2023) said 'we're two years into the fourth cycle,' which is about surviving quantitative tightening β€” calling it a tough cycle because Bitcoin had never proven it can survive without endless dollar printing.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-02-16", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/bitcoin-og-simon-dixon-bankruptcies-elon-musk-crypto-twitter-hall-of-flame/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "he doesn't have any set price predictions. Instead, he thinks in 'terms of four-year cycles' around the halvings, and right now, he says we're 'two years into the fourth cycle,' which is about surviving quantitative tightening. He says this will be a tough one because 'we've never proven that Bitcoin can survive when dollars aren't being printed endlessly.'", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20250827100102/https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/bitcoin-og-simon-dixon-bankruptcies-elon-musk-crypto-twitter-hall-of-flame/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-24" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Explicitly a non-prediction ('no set price predictions'); his framed concern that BTC might not survive QT was unfounded β€” it rallied through to an ATH of $126,296." } ] }, { "id": "simon-gerovich", "name": "Simon Gerovich", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will eventually be worth far more than $1 million; even at $1 million it is still cheap in the long term.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-03-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coinstories.libsyn.com/simon-gerovich-metaplanet-was-best-performing-stock-of-2024-japanese-public-adopting-bitcoin-1-million-price-target", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "If Bitcoin was at a million dollars now, then you might feel like you've missed it. Although I think a million dollars is still cheap in the long term.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-03-04); 2029-03-04 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "simply-bitcoin", "name": "Simply Bitcoin", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 30, "score_adj": 42.8, "avg_specificity": 29, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 10, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 6, "partial": 2, "pending": 14 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "The Simply Bitcoin host predicts that in one to three years people will look back at $60K as a generational buying opportunity, implying Bitcoin will be significantly higher.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2029", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-23", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/DID-THE-NEXT-BIG-CRASH-JUST-START---NO-ONE-Is-Prepared-For-THIS---EP-1532-e3l6hev", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I'm sure in a year, two, three from now, we're going to be looking back at 60K and being like, I'm so glad that I didn't take my foot off the gas pedal and I continued to buy at that 60K bottom.", "timestamp": "0:28:42", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "1-3 year horizon (deadline 2029) is still open; $60K-as-generational-buy is undetermined with BTC currently at $58,161, below the $62,645 level when made." }, { "claim_text": "The EP 1523 host believes Bitcoin will eventually become the world reserve currency with a market cap in the hundreds of trillions, implying a price of $1 million or more per coin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-06-10", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/NEW-DATA-Have-The-Bitcoin-Whales-Lost-CONTROL-of-the-Price----EP-1523-e3kk80u", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think it's going to be the world reserve currency at some point. The market cap is going to be in the hundreds of trillions of dollars in the future. Million dollar Bitcoin plus.", "timestamp": "0:06:16", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $67,264 since 2026-06-10); 2031-06-10 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The Simply Bitcoin host believes the Bitcoin market bottom is near, based on the convergence of multiple factors including sentiment extremes and capital rotation explanations.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Michael-Saylor-REVEALS-The-REAL-Reason-Bitcoin-is-CRASHING-----EP-1519-e3kbk4q", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "It's probably all of this, which does make me feel that, you know, maybe famous last words, the bottom is near. Though, if we can gauge sentiment based on how mad everyone is and all of the infighting, it does feel like a market bottom is here.", "timestamp": "0:04:08", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called the bottom 'near/here' at $63,806 on 2026-06-04, but BTC fell ~9% to $58,000 and trades at $58,161, making lower lows." }, { "claim_text": "The Simply Bitcoin host asserts that Bitcoin still has massive gains ahead of it and will take over the world.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Michael-Saylor-REVEALS-The-REAL-Reason-Bitcoin-is-CRASHING-----EP-1519-e3kbk4q", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I still think Bitcoin has got a lot of fuel left in its tank. I still think Bitcoin is going to take over the world. I still think Bitcoin has massive gains ahead of it.", "timestamp": "0:09:57", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended long-horizon thesis ('massive gains ahead', 'take over the world') with no deadline; window not elapsed, though price is down from $63,806 to $58,161 since." }, { "claim_text": "The Simply Bitcoin host believes Bitcoin is at the tail end of a bear market and holders will be happy once the price turns around, implying a forthcoming recovery.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-28", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/ANONYMOUS-WHALE-IS-Using-BlackRocks-ETF-To-CRASH-Bitcoins-Price-----EP-1514-e3k1f69", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Right now is the time of accumulation. Yes, it's towards the tail end of a bear market, but you're going to be happy once the price turns around again.", "timestamp": "0:08:52", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted recovery from bear market; instead BTC fell from $73,513 to a $58,000 low and sits at $58,161 β€” no turnaround." }, { "claim_text": "The host agrees that the most hated Bitcoin rally in history is coming.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-22", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/LEAKED-Binance-HELPED-This-Middle-Eastern-GIANT-Build-a-7-7B-Strategic-Bitcoin-Reserve----EP-1510-e3joosq", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "the most hated beat Bitcoin rally in history is coming. I honestly, I kind of agree with that. I actually, I really hope that that is the case.", "timestamp": "0:27:24", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called for a rally; BTC barely ticked to $78,015 from $75,444 then crashed to $58,161 β€” no rally, the opposite." }, { "claim_text": "Host believes Bitcoin will continue its march toward $100K, barring another escalation in the Iran war.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-05-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Burry-Says-CRASH--Saylor-Says-1M-BITCOIN-Whos-Right---Bitcoin-Simply-e3j9l5l", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And this is why I do think, unforeseeing another eruption in the war in Iran, that Bitcoin will continue its march towards 100K.", "timestamp": "0:11:24", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,066 since 2026-05-13); 2027-02-13 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Host believes if Bitcoin channels between $60K and $80K for the next three months (through summer 2026), there is a very high probability the bottom is already in.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": "2026-08-06", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-06", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Michael-Saylor-is-selling-Bitcoin---but-heres-why-its-good-for-the-price-----EP-1498-e3j0807", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think that if we hold these price levels for the next three months or so, if we channel between the 80K and the 60K region, I think there's a very high probability that the bottom was in.", "timestamp": "0:18:23", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-05-06..2026-07-01] β€” a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Host states that if Bitcoin holds above $60K through summer 2026, he does not see it dropping into the $50K–$40K range.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": "2026-09-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-06", "specificity": 68, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Michael-Saylor-is-selling-Bitcoin---but-heres-why-its-good-for-the-price-----EP-1498-e3j0807", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "If we can get through the summer and we're still above the 60K region, I don't see us going down into the 50s and the 40s and the high 30s.", "timestamp": "0:19:49", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-05-06..2026-07-01] β€” a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Host says if Bitcoin does not see an aggressive dump in May 2026, the bear market is over.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-05-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-04", "specificity": 66, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Bitcoins-pumping--markets-are-crashing--BlackRocks-report-explains-what-comes-next--EP-1496-e3ishlj", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "If we don't dump in May, I think we can all confirm our bias here and confirm that we are probably out of the woods. That we are out of a bear market. I'm going to put it out there.", "timestamp": "0:20:19", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'Bear market over if no May dump'; BTC fell in May (low $72,364) and then crashed to $58,000 β€” thesis decisively falsified." }, { "claim_text": "Host believes $40K Bitcoin is off the table given the 200-week moving average is now at $60K.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 40000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-05-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Bitcoins-pumping--markets-are-crashing--BlackRocks-report-explains-what-comes-next--EP-1496-e3ishlj", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "But again, the 200-week moving average is now moving to 60K. So I think 40K is off the table.", "timestamp": "0:21:16", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $40,000 (through 2026-07-01)." }, { "claim_text": "Host says if Bitcoin breaks above $81K, it could be on for a slow grind higher and the October bottom thesis is over.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 81000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Bitcoins-pumping--markets-are-crashing--BlackRocks-report-explains-what-comes-next--EP-1496-e3ishlj", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "If we break this 81K range, we could be on for a slow grind higher. And the whole Bitcoin's going to bottom in October idea is over.", "timestamp": "0:19:45", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Broke above $81K (high $82,814) but then crashed to $58,161 β€” no slow grind higher and the October-bottom thesis was not invalidated." }, { "claim_text": "Host states Bitcoin is going to rally given the large capital flows currently entering the space.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-01", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/100B-in-Capital-Going-After-10B-in-Bitcoin--The-Rally-Is-Coming---Bitcoin-Simply-e3ip3va", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Well, I think Bitcoin is going to rally. I think there's a lot of capital flowing into Bitcoin right now.", "timestamp": "0:11:15", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted rally from $78,234; brief high $82,814 then crashed to $58,161 β€” no sustained rally." }, { "claim_text": "The host predicts that after an initial stock-market-driven flush to around $65k, Bitcoin will decouple and ultimately rally to $800k once central banks face a monetary crisis.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 800000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-04-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Saylor-Just-DESTROYED-The-Bitcoin-Bear-Market--Why-is-the-US-Treasury-PANICKING---Simply-Originals-e3igudi", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Round one, Bitcoin gets dragged down with the NASDAQ... Maybe you see 65k... Round two. Every central bank on earth simultaneously realizes their bonds are radioactive... And then we don't talk about 80k Bitcoin anymore. We talk about 800k Bitcoin.", "timestamp": "0:08:13", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-27); 2031-04-27 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will attempt a breakout above $77K into the $80Ks, and there is no omega candle (large spike) expected within the next one to two months β€” just a bullish grind up.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 77000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-04-21", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/NEW-Is-BlackRock-FORCING-200T-into-Bitcoin----EP-1487-e3i8f01", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I'm not of the opinion that we are going to see an Omega candle anytime soon. And by that, I mean within the next month or two. I think what we're going to see is Bitcoin try to break out. If we do get a breakout above 77 into the 80Ks, obviously extremely bullish.", "timestamp": "0:29:15", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-04-21..2026-07-01], reaching the $77,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will not go down to $40K β€” the current cycle floor is higher due to institutional buying pressure from Strategy.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 40000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-04-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Michael-Saylors-Latest-1B-Bitcoin-Buy-Changes-Everything--EP-1482-e3htj32", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "maybe it's not going to be just one billion dollars a day...weekly or daily that this demand supply economics just don't make sense in this world to say oh yeah we're gonna have another black swan leg down it's going to 40k...we aren't going down to 40k so maybe we're both right", "timestamp": "0:12:02", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $40,000 (through 2026-07-01)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will break above $70K and that move will be persistent β€” ETF inflow data signals the shift is already underway.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 70000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2026-04-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/ALERT-Whales-Just-Bought-526-Million-MORE-Bitcoin--This-Pattern-Says-EVERYTHING--Bitcoin-Simply-e3hqd4d", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And that's why I believe that we're going to see a break above 70k, and it's going to be persistent.", "timestamp": "0:14:52", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-04-13..2026-07-01], reaching the $70,000 downside target." }, { "claim_text": "The host believes Bitcoin will surge through $90K, $100K, and the prior $124K high and into the $150K–$200K zone sometime within the next six months.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2026-10-10", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-10", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Why-They-Cant-STOP-the-36T-Debt-Bubble--Bitcoin-Was-Right---Beyond-Bitcoin-e3hmbqc", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I am of the opinion that sometime in the next six months, Bitcoin is going to wake up and shock everybody. And we're going to very quickly move through this 90, through the 100, through the 124, whatever the last top was, and into kind of the 150 to 200 zone. I think that's coming.", "timestamp": "0:14:13", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Target $150K–$200K by 2026-10-10; window still open, high by deadline only $82,814 so far β€” far below even $90K." }, { "claim_text": "Host predicts Bitcoin will be at $10 million or more within a 20-30 year horizon.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 10000000, "deadline": "2056", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-26", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Theyre-HIDING-47-TRILLION-in-Debt-Bitcoin-Already-Knows--Simply-Originals-e3gvr6j", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "in a 20- to 30-year horizon, as the great Uncle Larry Stank mentioned earlier, Bitcoin is likely sitting at $10 million plus.", "timestamp": "0:09:40", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-26); 2056-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Host personally endorses a $150,000 Bitcoin price target by end of year 2026.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-25", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/867B-GIANT-Sends-A-HUGE-Bitcoin-WARNING-YOU-HAVE-9-MONTHS--EP-1468-e3gvf4q", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And they are maintaining their $150K target by end of year... I think end of year at minimum. Okay. We're going to lock it in.", "timestamp": "0:02:21", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-25); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Luke (Simply Bitcoin host) predicts Bitcoin will reach $5.3 million by 2035 if 2% of global wealth flows into Bitcoin.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 5300000, "deadline": "2035", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-24", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/BlackRocks-NEW-Report-Could-SEND-Bitcoin-To-5-3M-FASTER-Than-You-Think-----EP-1533-e3l81gm", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Luke was saying 5.3 mil. You're like, yeah, I think it's going to get there by like 2035. I'm like, yo, you are, you're stupidly bullish. Like I was more of the idea, like maybe in my lifetime, we might get to those numbers. And Luke's like, no, dude, 10 years.", "timestamp": "0:05:48", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $63,156 since 2026-06-24); 2035-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "When Kevin Warsh becomes Fed chair and monetary easing is fully unleashed, Bitcoin will experience a massive upward surge (the 'Omega Candle').", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-16", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Strategy-Buys-4-000-Bitcoin-in-30-Minutes--Bitcoins-Price-Floor-Just-Changed-FOREVER--Simply-Originals-e3hvmmv", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And on the day that Kevin Warsh becomes the chair and the full power and strength of the money printer is unleashed, this will be Bitcoin. Probably the stonk market too if you're into that sort of thing. But it's going to be f***ing beautiful. The Omega Candle. The Prophecy.", "timestamp": "0:07:47", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claim commits to Bitcoin making a dramatic upward move when Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed chair and easing begins." }, { "claim_text": "The host estimates the bear market likely has about six more months remaining before a definitive reversal can be confirmed.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-10", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-01", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/NEW-DATA-CONFIRMS-Bitcoin-Bear-Market-Could-Be-OVER-SOONER-Than-you-Think------EP-1473-e3h9udm", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Though the standard heuristic here of, we probably have six more months of this bear market before we know for a fact whether we're going to get a reversal or anything. I think that still holds true.", "timestamp": "0:08:53", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claim commits to the bear market (price below ~$70K cycle range) persisting for approximately six more months from April 2026, i.e., through roughly October 2026, before a confirmed reversal." }, { "claim_text": "Host states that if institutions adopt a 2-5% Bitcoin allocation as discussed by Larry Fink, the price would reach $500,000-$700,000 per Bitcoin.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-26", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Theyre-HIDING-47-TRILLION-in-Debt-Bitcoin-Already-Knows--Simply-Originals-e3gvr6j", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Should we have a 2-percent allocation? Should we have a 5-percent allocation? If everybody adopted that conversation, it would be $500,000, $600,000, $700,000 per Bitcoin.", "timestamp": "0:07:59", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claim commits to Bitcoin reaching $500k-$700k if/when broad institutional 2-5% portfolio allocation occurs; resolves when Bitcoin price enters that range." } ] }, { "id": "simply-satoshe", "name": "Simply SatoSHE", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 0, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Simply SatoSHE argues that Bitcoin has bottomed exactly 23 months after each all-time high in every prior cycle, and with the current cycle at month 23 this pattern implies the bottom is now.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-06", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-06", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Michael-Saylors-NEW-Bitcoin-Crash-Theory-No-One-Is-Talking-About---Simply-SatoSHE-e3kdcht", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitcoin has bottomed exactly 23 months after all time high every single cycle. We are sitting at month 23 right now. This pattern has apparently never failed. So I'm just going to let that sit there.", "timestamp": "0:06:57", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'Bottom is now' (June 2026 window); instead BTC made a new low of $58,000 in June and sits at $58,161 β€” no bottom confirmed." }, { "claim_text": "If the four-year cycle holds, Bitcoin's bottom lands in Q3 or Q4 of 2026.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-27", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/This-90B-Man-Just-REVEALED-How-Bad-The-Bitcoin-Situation-is----and-ETFs-SOLD-Billions---Simply-SatoSHE-e3lbr23", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "The four-year cycle keeps showing up, and if it holds, the bottom lands somewhere in Q3 or Q4 of this year.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bottom predicted for Q3/Q4 2026; window has not started/elapsed (made 2026-06-27), outcome undetermined." } ] }, { "id": "sina-21st", "name": "Sina (21st Capital)", "handles": { "x": "@Sina_21st", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://21stcapital.com" }, "category": [ "analyst", "model-builder", "fund-cofounder" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 41400, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/Sina_21st - count ~41.4K reported in search snippet; X profile itself auth-walled (HTTP 402), so figure is approximate/unverified by direct page open" }, "score": 25, "score_adj": 28.2, "avg_specificity": 55, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 4, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 3, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Sina's Bitcoin Quantile Model identifies a 'Hot Zone' (>66% quantile) of $136,000 to $285,000 by the end of 2025, i.e. BTC could rise as high as $285,000 by year-end 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 285000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-10-22", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/bitcoin-price-target-quantile-model/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Sinaβ€”a professor, consultant, and co-founder & COO of 21stCapital.comβ€”is projecting that the Bitcoin price could rise as high as $285,000 by the end of 2025 in a new analysis ... the upper boundary of what Sina calls the 'Hot Zone' (>66% quantile), which spans from $136,000 to $285,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $285,000." }, { "claim_text": "Per Sina's Bitcoin Quantile Model, BTC's 'Hot Zone' begins at $136,000 β€” Bitcoin is expected to enter the >66% quantile band ($136,000-$285,000) by the end of 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 136000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-10-22", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2024/10/22/analyst-sets-bitcoin-285000-target-using-quantile-model/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Hot Zone (66%+ quantile): '$136,000 and $285,000' ... Sina identifies three quantile zones for Bitcoin's 2025 trading ranges: Cold Zone $55,000-$85,000, Warm Zone $85,000-$136,000, Hot Zone $136,000-$285,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $136,000." }, { "claim_text": "Having 'reclaimed' its power-law price, Sina's Bitcoin Quantile Model keeps BTC on track to hit price targets of $130,000 and $163,000 before the end of 2025 (with $103,000-$106,000 as interim milestones), as Bitcoin enters the 'Acceleration' phase.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 163000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-04-27", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604726467", "source_type": "article", "quote": "key targets of $130,000 and $163,000 before year-end, with $106,000 and $103,000 as interim milestones ... According to 21st Capital co-founder Sina, Bitcoin's price has reclaimed its power-law trajectory.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $163,000." }, { "claim_text": "Sina's Bitcoin Quantile Model keeps BTC on track to hit a price target of $130,000 before the end of 2025 after reclaiming its power-law price.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 130000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-04-27", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/28a1a-power-law-predicts-200k-bitcoin-in-q4-2025-btcs-155k-hinges-on-one-condition", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Based on Sina's Bitcoin Quantile Model, reclaiming the power-law price keeps BTC on track to hit a price target of $130,000 and $163,000 before the end of 2025.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2025-04-27..2025-12-31], reaching the $130,000 target (within 2.8% β€” near-miss counted)." } ] }, { "id": "sminston", "name": "Sminston", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "The power law model predicts the average Bitcoin price during the 2024-2028 halving window will be approximately $130,000-$133,000.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 131500, "deadline": "2028", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-12-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/The-Dynamics-of-Bitcoins-Price-Growth-with-PlanC-and-Sminston--SLP621-e2rootk", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "i actually ran it where i stopped all the data there and then what i did is i said okay using the power law...i believe 130 or 133 i can't remember off the top of my head but it's basically saying the average price is going to be 130 or 133 in that range between the the halving we just you know started right or just had and then the next one so the 28 halving", "timestamp": "0:17:20", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Average-price $130–133K range over the 2024–2028 halving window; deadline 2028 has not elapsed." } ] }, { "id": "stack-hodler", "name": "Stack Hodler", "handles": { "x": "@stackhodler", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://pro.stackmacro.com" }, "category": [ "macro_commentator", "on_chain_commentator", "bitcoin_maxi" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 120000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitterscore.io/twitter/stackhodler/" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "A million-dollar bitcoin is still totally in the cards, sometime in the next ten years.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2032-10-28", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-10-28", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://stephanlivera.com/episode/428/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "But to me a million dollar bitcoin is still totally in the cards and sometime in the next ten years I'd say. And this volatility doesn't really it doesn't really change that.", "timestamp": "approx 00:05:30", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2022-10-28); 2032-10-28 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "stacy-herbert", "name": "Stacy Herbert", "handles": { "x": "@stacyherbert", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "bitcoin-advocate", "government-official", "broadcaster" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 206000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitterscore.io/twitter/stacyherbert/" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [] }, { "id": "stanley-druckenmiller", "name": "Stanley Druckenmiller", "handles": { "x": "standuquesne", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "macro-investor", "hedge-fund", "commentator" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 44600, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/standuquesne" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [] }, { "id": "stephan-livera", "name": "Stephan Livera", "handles": { "x": "@stephanlivera", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://stephanlivera.com" }, "category": [ "podcaster", "educator", "bitcoiner" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 191500, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/stephanlivera" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 24, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "On his podcast (SLP731), discussing the 2026 drawdown, Livera said the early-February ~$60k low was 'a decent candidate' for the bottom of this bear cycle, while hedging that price could still go lower.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-17", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://stephanlivera.com/episode/731/", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think that's definitely a decent candidate that 60k was the bottom for this bear cycle. Of course we could go lower, but you know, I think there's probably been enough pain.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called the ~$60k low a 'decent candidate' for the bottom; BTC broke below to $58,000, so $60k was not the bottom." }, { "claim_text": "Stephan Livera puts a ballpark long-term Bitcoin price at $10–20 million per coin in purchasing power terms.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 10000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-09-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/SLP304-Is-The-Bitcoin-Infinity-Meme-Wrong--With-Knut-Svanholm-e17b409", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "something let's say ballpark something in that 10 to 20 million dollars per coin us you know in purchasing power terms obviously because by then it will have inflated a lot i think that is totally reasonable", "timestamp": "0:31:00", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$10–20M/coin long-term purchasing-power call with no deadline; far from realized ($126,296 high) and horizon open." } ] }, { "id": "stephen-diehl", "name": "Stephen Diehl", "handles": { "x": "@smdiehl", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.stephendiehl.com" }, "category": [ "critic", "software-engineer", "author" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 61200, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://www.sotwe.com/smdiehl?lang=en" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [] }, { "id": "steve-hanke", "name": "Steve Hanke", "handles": { "x": "@steve_hanke", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/" }, "category": [ "economist", "academic", "perma-bear" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 851200, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/steve_hanke" }, "score": 100, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 3, "counts": { "correct": 3, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "What goes up must come down, and #Bitcoin certainly isn't exempt from this law. #BTC's extreme volatility & speculative nature serve as reminders of the up and down law. (Bearish crash call; BTC ~$51.5k at the time.)", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-10-05", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.cointribune.com/en/analysis/people/steve-hanke-bitcoin-btc-is-likely-to-crash/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "What goes up must come down, and #Bitcoin certainly isn't exempt from this law. #BTC's extreme volatility & speculative nature serve as reminders of the up and down law.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bearish 'what goes up must come down' call at ~$51,494; BTC subsequently crashed to a $15,460 low in the 2022 bear market." }, { "claim_text": "Companies swapping productive investments for bitcoin 'treasuries' are playing roulette. Bitcoin and ethereum treasuries have no business model because BTC has no fundamental value. Eventually no one will loan against crypto collateral. But right now there are foolish lenders who will.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-07-14", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/economist-steve-hanke-torches-bitcoin-strategy-with-brutal-no-value-verdict", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Companies swapping productive investments for bitcoin 'treasuries' are playing roulette. Bitcoin and ethereum treasuries have no business model because BTC has no fundamental value. ... Eventually no one will loan against crypto collateral. But right now there are foolish lenders who will.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Directionally bearish call from $119,864; BTC collapsed to $58,161 by as_of with no sustained loaning-against-crypto thesis vindication, low $58,000 β€” the bear case played out." }, { "claim_text": "So much for Bitcoin being 'digital gold.' BITCOIN = A HIGHLY SPECULATIVE ASSET WITH NO FUNDAMENTAL VALUE. (Bearish reaction posted as BTC fell to ~$90k from its $126k October 2025 ATH and turned negative year-to-date.)", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-11-16", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/much-bitcoin-being-digital-gold-144607843.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "So much for Bitcoin being 'digital gold,' ... BITCOIN = A HIGHLY SPECULATIVE ASSET WITH NO FUNDAMENTAL VALUE", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bearish at $94,184 after the $126k ATH; BTC fell to $58,161 (low $58,000), only bouncing to $97,964 β€” downtrend continued as he implied." } ] }, { "id": "steve-lee", "name": "Steve Lee", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin necessarily has to reach $1,000,000 a coin by the year 2038 through basic adoption and math.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2038", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-03-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://assets.podhome.fm/8029725b-0319-44b9-4793-08dc404e83a4/transcript_7cd1ad4f-dc96-4d0a-9248-adac0aec4364638460359394395136.html", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "in 20 the year 2038 Okay. If Bitcoin's not a $1,000,000, I I I also think it's probably 14 years... Like, for this to be broadly like, helping lots of human beings, I think it it necessarily has to be $1,000,000 a coin just through basic adoption and math.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-03-14); 2038-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "steven-mcclurg", "name": "Steven McClurg", "handles": { "x": "@StevenMcClurg", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.canary.capital" }, "category": [ "etf-issuer", "fund-executive", "analyst" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 18300, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/stevenmcclurg?lang=en" }, "score": 65.4, "score_adj": 66.3, "avg_specificity": 46, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 13, "counts": { "correct": 7, "wrong": 3, "partial": 3, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's price will surpass $100,000 by the end of next year (i.e., by end of 2024).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-12-15", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tftc.io/valkyrie-bitcoin-etf-steven-mcclurg/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "As for the future, McClurg is bullish, predicting that Bitcoin's price will surpass $100,000 by the end of next year and agrees with Bernstein's forecast of reaching $150,000 by 2025.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2023-12-15..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "McClurg agrees with Bernstein's forecast of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by 2025 (an endorsed target, not his own primary call).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 150000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-12-15", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tftc.io/valkyrie-bitcoin-etf-steven-mcclurg/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "predicting that Bitcoin's price will surpass $100,000 by the end of next year and agrees with Bernstein's forecast of reaching $150,000 by 2025.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000." }, { "claim_text": "There's a greater than 50% chance Bitcoin reaches the $140,000 to $150,000 range this year (2025) before another bear market next year (2026).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 140000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-07", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://decrypt.co/335557/canary-capital-ceo-predicts-bitcoin-150k-year-ethereum-surge-wont-last", "source_type": "article", "quote": "There's a greater than 50% chance that Bitcoin goes to the $140,000 to $150,000 range this year before we see another bear market next year.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $140,000." }, { "claim_text": "On the debate over whether Bitcoin's four-year cycle is dead: 'I disagree. The four-year cycle remains intact.' He expects 2026 to be the bear leg of that cycle.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-13", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.canary.capital/thought-leadership/bitcoins-four-year-cycle-the-2025-reality-check-aka-our-ymr", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "I disagree. The four-year cycle remains intact.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted 2026 as the bear leg; BTC fell from $95,384 to $58,161 by mid-2026, clearly a bear year as called." }, { "claim_text": "I expect this bear phase to result in a 50-55% peak-to-trough decline. With BTC already down roughly 30%, a gradual decline over the next 6-9 months is reasonable.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 57000, "deadline": "2026-10-13", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-13", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://www.canary.capital/thought-leadership/bitcoins-four-year-cycle-the-2025-reality-check-aka-our-ymr", "source_type": "blog", "quote": "I expect this bear phase to result in a 50-55% peak-to-trough decline. With BTC already down roughly 30%, a gradual decline over the next 6-9 months is reasonable.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said ~30% already down + 50-55% total peak-to-trough decline. From $126,200 ATH to low $58,000 is ~54% β€” band met; but window (deadline 2026-10-13) still open, full bottom not yet confirmed." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin already peaked on October 6, 2025 at ~$126,200, and McClurg does not expect Bitcoin to post a new all-time high in 2026; he sees BTC falling another 20-30% over six to nine months to roughly $65,000-$77,000 before the end of the year.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 77000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-16", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605156284", "source_type": "article", "quote": "McClurg said he is bearish on Bitcoin for the rest of the current cycle. In his view, Bitcoin already peaked on October 6, 2025, when its price reached $126,200. ... He believes Bitcoin could fall another 20% to 30% over the next six to nine months before reaching a new trough ... between $65,000 and $77,000 before the end of the year. ... McClurg does not expect Bitcoin to post a new all-time high in 2026.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted no new ATH in 2026 and a fall to ~$65k-$77k; BTC dropped from $95,504 to $58,161 (low $58,000), high only $95,830 β€” passed through and below the target band, no new ATH." }, { "claim_text": "2026 will be the 'bear leg' of crypto's four-year cycle; Bitcoin could fall as low as $50,000 in the summer before things turn around in the fall.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 50000, "deadline": "2026-09-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-11", "specificity": 68, "citation": { "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/02/11/2026-will-be-bear-leg-of-four-year-crypto-cycle-canary-capital.html", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "\"2026 I expect to be a bear leg to the four-year cycle,\" McClurg told CNBC, adding that he expects bitcoin to fall to as low as $50,000 in the summer before \"things turn around in the fall.\"", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bear-leg call correct and BTC reached low $58,000 (near his ~$50k summer target); but 'turn around in the fall' window (deadline 2026-09-30) not yet elapsed, no turnaround confirmed." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has further to fall and will likely drop to the $60k-$65k area.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-03", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/StevenMcClurg/status/2018822316537618513", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I really wanted to be wrong on this, but here we are.\nMost talking heads are switching their views and admitting we are in bear market.\nMy view: bitcoin has further to fall, probably to $60k-$65k area (ignoring macro factors), so don't try to catch falling knives. This is crypto", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "From $75,661 predicted fall to $60k-$65k area; BTC traded down through that band to low $58,000 (current $58,161)." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will fall another 20-30% from current levels, with the bottom likely in summer or after midterm elections.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-11-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-21", "specificity": 50, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/StevenMcClurg/status/2014054572138840410", "source_type": "x", "quote": "She is unfortunately wrong here. expect another 20-30% lower from here.\nThere is little investor liquidity and a lot of selling. Hopefully bottom in the summer, but likely after mid-terms.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "From $89,364 predicted another 20-30% lower (~$62,555-$71,491); BTC fell to low $58,000 / current $58,161, fulfilling and exceeding the drop." }, { "claim_text": "Crypto will continue a slow grind lower until at least the World Series (late October) or after midterm elections (November 2026).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-11-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-16", "specificity": 50, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/StevenMcClurg/status/2012246182811082853", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Crypto is in the bear market that no one wants to admit as a bear market.\nSlow grind lower until the World Series, or maybe even until after midterm elections.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Slow grind lower from $95,504 to $58,161 has held through mid-2026 as predicted; but the timed window (World Series/midterms, deadline 2026-11-30) has not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "BTC may retrace to the $15K range before recovering, and once the Genesis situation resolves there will be no more leverage overhang driving further downside.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 15000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2023-01-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD603_-_Steven_McClurg.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I don't think that we're going to like 5,000 Bitcoin or 10,000 Bitcoin or maybe even 12. Maybe we'll go back down to 15. But we're probably going to be here for a while.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's low was $17,103, held at/above $15,000 (through 2023-10-09)." }, { "claim_text": "Once the Genesis/DCG situation is resolved, Bitcoin's bear market will be over and the downside risk from leverage will be exhausted.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-01-09", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD603_-_Steven_McClurg.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Now we've got the Genesis situation. Genesis situation, I think, is going to be bigger than FTX. But once that's out, I think we're gone. I mean, that's it. There's no more leverage out there.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said once Genesis/DCG resolved the bear market is over and leverage downside exhausted; BTC ran from $17,178 to $126,296 ATH then crashed back to $58,161 β€” far from 'no more downside,' the call was off." }, { "claim_text": "Steven McClurg predicts Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by end of 2024, and calls a Bitcoin spot ETF approval a 'complete game changer' on top of that.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-11-20", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD738_-_Steven_McClurg.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I see us going to 100,000 by the end of next year. Easy. And that's ignoring Bitcoin spot ETF. That is a complete game changer.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2023-11-20..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target." } ] }, { "id": "sven-henrich", "name": "Sven Henrich", "handles": { "x": "@NorthmanTrader", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://northmantrader.com" }, "category": [ "technical-analyst", "macro", "trader" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 500000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://www.speakrj.com/audit/report/NorthmanTrader/twitter" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 24, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 1, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin fails to convincingly break through ~$45,220 and sustain new highs in February 2021, a similar structural path to the 2018 bear market could yield a downside target of around $6,400 in 2022.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 6400, "deadline": "2022-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-02-07", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/northman-traders-sven-henrich-says-bitcoin-could-collapse-to-6400", "source_type": "article", "quote": "if the structural takes on a similar path the 2017 highs could well be the next target lower...may ultimately yield a target of around $6400 in 2022", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Conditional ~$6,400 downside target for 2022; BTC's 2022 low was $15,460, never reaching anywhere near $6,400 by the 2022-12-31 deadline." }, { "claim_text": "The new bull market has just begun. Please buy now. (Tweeted with BTC trading ~$26,607.)", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-06-09", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://coingape.com/top-analyst-predicts-new-crypto-bull-run-has-just-begun/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "The new bull market has just begun. Please buy now.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called the new bull market / buy at $26,483; BTC subsequently rallied to $126,296 ATH β€” the bull market did begin as stated." } ] }, { "id": "the-bitcoin-therapist", "name": "The Bitcoin Therapist", "handles": { "x": "@TheBTCTherapist", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "influencer", "commentator", "perma-bull", "news-aggregator" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 265700, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/thebtctherapist?lang=en" }, "score": 28.6, "score_adj": 32.4, "avg_specificity": 21, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 7, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 5, "partial": 0, "pending": 11 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "$120K Bitcoin by end of week.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 120000, "deadline": "2025-05-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-27", "specificity": 100, "citation": { "url": "https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/insane-bitcoin-surge-incoming-experts-weekend-prediction-raises-eyebrows/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "$120K Bitcoin by end of week.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $110,829 through the 2025-05-30 horizon; never reached $120,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's current price around $58–62K represents the bear market bottom.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-25", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/2070213968971395326", "source_type": "x", "quote": "bottom is in.\n\n(will delete if wrong)", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "\"Bottom is in\" at ~$58-62K failed: BTC fell from $59,704 to $58,161 (low $58,000) by as-of, sitting at the lows rather than bouncing." }, { "claim_text": "Based on historical bear market patterns, approximately 6 more months of pain remain, with current prices representing excellent long-term buys.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-23", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-23", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/2069378238711791642", "source_type": "x", "quote": "History tells us we have 6 more months of pain left to endure in this bear market.\n\nThe buys you make down here will be your best performances in a couple years.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "\"6 more months of pain\" deadline 2026-12-23 has not elapsed (as-of 2026-06-30); price fell $62,645->$58,161, consistent with the thesis but window still open." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has bottomed and is ready to pump higher from the current ~$60K level.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-10", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/2064698802355700197", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The bottom is in.\n\nBitcoin is ready to pump.\n\n(if I'm wrong I'm deleting this)", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "\"Bottom is in, ready to pump\" from $61,449: BTC pumped to $67,264 but then broke down to $58,161 (low $58,000), now below the call price at fresh lows." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin buyers at current prices (~$60K) will be thankful in 12 months as price will be significantly higher.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2027-06-10", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-10", "specificity": 46, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/2064516205436645451", "source_type": "x", "quote": "We're in a bear market. Stack your ass off. You will be thankful 12 months from now.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "\"Thankful 12 months from now\" deadline 2027-06-10 has not elapsed; outcome undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's current discounted price will not last β€” price will rise as SpaceX IPO liquidity subsides.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-11", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/2064900048777879759", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Market liquidity was siphoned from Bitcoin, gold, crypto and tech and its being injected directly into SpaceX.\n\nBitcoin is on sale and it's not going to last.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "\"On sale, not going to last, price will rise\" from $63,563: BTC instead fell to $58,161 (low $58,000); the discount deepened rather than ended." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has already found its cycle bottom near ~$63K and will not make a lower low.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 63000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/2065797796150513853", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bottom is in. Everyone can see it. Stop lying to yourself. The time to accumulate is now.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-06-13..2026-07-01], reaching the $63,000 downside target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's bear market ended around June 14, 2026, and a new bull run is beginning.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-14", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/2066288688359739600", "source_type": "x", "quote": "THE BEAR MARKET JUST ENDED.\n\nBUCKLE UP.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "\"The bear market just ended\" at $65,707: BTC fell ~11% to $58,161 by as-of, contradicting a bull-run start." }, { "claim_text": "A quant model signals the Bitcoin bear market bottom is near from the current ~$65K level.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-17", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/2067329167050338388", "source_type": "x", "quote": "My quant has spoken. Bottom is near.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "\"Bottom is near\" (open-ended timing) made at $64,446; BTC fell to $58,000 lows with no confirmed bottom yet, but a bottom near current lows remains undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will find a cycle bottom within roughly 6 months of June 2026, after which buyers at current prices will be glad they accumulated.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-12-18", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-18", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/2067603926413660402", "source_type": "x", "quote": "6 more months of pain to endure. Stack regularly, stack often. We will find a bottom and you will be glad you never stopped allocating.\n\nPain is only temporary.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "\"Find a cycle bottom within ~6 months\" deadline 2026-12-18 has not elapsed; bottom not yet confirmed, window still open." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's cycle bottom is close and will be reached imminently from the current ~$65K level.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-19", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/2068069371243602078", "source_type": "x", "quote": "My god look how far we've deviated since October 10th β€” it changed everything.\n\nBottom is close. Not much longer now.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "\"Bottom is close, not much longer\" (open-ended) made at $63,475; price fell to $58,000 lows with no confirmed bottom, outcome still undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will enter a new bull run and could do approximately 7x from its current ~$1.2 trillion market cap (~$64K price), still far below gold's total market cap.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-20", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/2068337085916819883", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Would this really be that hard to believe?\n\nBitcoin doing 7x from a $1.2 trillion dollar market cap is still $20 trillion less than gold.\n\nExpand your horizons. The bull is coming.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "\"The bull is coming, 7x possible\" is a long-horizon open-ended call; no window elapsed and outcome undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "A Bitcoin bull market is imminent.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-28", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/2071070369973145835", "source_type": "x", "quote": "The bull market is right around the corner", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "\"Bull market right around the corner\" made 2026-06-28, just 2 days before as-of; price flat-to-down at $58,161, window not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin at $60,000 will look cheap in hindsight, implying future appreciation.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-28", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/2071062462955176379", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin at $60,000 is a gift. \n\nOne day you’ll look back and realize it. \n\nUntil then, stack like your life depends on it.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "\"$60k will look cheap one day\" is a long-horizon appreciation call made 2026-06-28; no window elapsed, undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will hit $240,000 by 2028 (a 4x from current levels).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 240000, "deadline": "2028", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-10", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/2053471103176036763", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$240,000 by 2028 would be a 4x return", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,450 since 2026-05-10); 2028-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will see a V-shaped recovery to $180,000 within roughly 18 months.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 180000, "deadline": "2027-11-09", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-09", "specificity": 70, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/2053260858742960579", "source_type": "x", "quote": "This TA is saying Bitcoin won’t make it back to all time highs until at after 2028... I simply don’t see how we remain under $100,000 for another 18 months. In fact, I’m quite bullish on a V shaped recovery to $180,000.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,450 since 2026-05-09); 2027-11-09 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "After a short consolidation, Bitcoin will rally back above $100,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-05-15", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/2055330125118357976", "source_type": "x", "quote": "A short correction while the market consolidates followed by a larger and more aggressive rally back above $100,000.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $81,650 since 2026-05-15); 2027-02-15 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will find its bottom around $60,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-05", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/2063016765391569067", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin will find a bottom around $60,000.\nMichael Saylor will not get liquidated.\nSTRC will trade at $100 very soon.\nThe Clarity Act will mark the bottom. \nInstitutional adoption will accelerate.\nYou’ll forget there was ever a bear market.\nSoon $200,000 Bitcoin will seem low.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-06-05..2026-07-01], reaching the $60,000 downside target." } ] }, { "id": "the-crypto-dog", "name": "The Crypto Dog", "handles": { "x": "@TheCryptoDog", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://thecryptodog.medium.com/" }, "category": [ "trader", "market_commentator" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 770000, "as_of": "2024-04-01", "source": "https://iq.wiki/wiki/the-crypto-dog" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's path to $1 million or more is preordained and requires no day-to-day justification.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-03-02", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TheCryptoDog/status/2028503293417390111", "source_type": "x", "quote": "One of the fastest ways to dox yourself as a crypto pleb is to ask \"what's the reason for the Bitcoin pump today?\"\n\nIts path to $1m+ is preordained. On any given day it needs no reasons.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-02); 2031-03-02 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "tim-draper", "name": "Tim Draper", "handles": { "x": "@TimDraper", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://draper.vc" }, "category": [ "venture-capitalist", "investor", "bitcoin-permabull" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 277500, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/TimDraper" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 54, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 7, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 7, "partial": 0, "pending": 5 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2022 or early 2023.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2023-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-06-14", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/14/billionaire-tim-draper-still-predicts-bitcoin-will-reach-250000-.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Billionaire venture capitalist and bitcoin investor Tim Draper is sticking by his prediction that bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2022 or early 2023 despite the cryptocurrency's wild swings in value... 'I think I'm going to be right on this one,' Draper tells CNBC Make It.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260505193423/https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/14/billionaire-tim-draper-still-predicts-bitcoin-will-reach-250000-.html", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2023-12-31 horizon; never reached $250,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will hit $250,000 a coin by the middle of 2023 (June 2023); '$250,000 is still my number' despite the FTX collapse.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2023-06-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-12-05", "specificity": 68, "citation": { "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/05/tim-draper-predicts-bitcoin-will-reach-250000-despite-ftx-collapse.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Venture capitalist Tim Draper thinks bitcoin will hit $250,000 a coin by the middle of 2023... He told CNBC that $250,000 'is still my number' despite the digital coin's more than 60% drop this year.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260210115451/https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/05/tim-draper-predicts-bitcoin-will-reach-250000-despite-ftx-collapse.html", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $31,444 through the 2023-06-30 horizon; never reached $250,000." }, { "claim_text": "After missing the June 2023 deadline, Draper says $250,000 Bitcoin is still coming, just about 2 years later (i.e. ~2025).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-07-11", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/07/11/tim-draper-still-thinks-bitcoin-can-reach-250k-just-2-years-later-than-he-expected", "source_type": "article", "quote": "So much for my prediction abilities. I guess we have to wait a little longer, (maybe 2 years) but engineers are hard at work.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $250,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin might hit $250,000 this year (2024); '$250,000 will probably come pretty soon' and if it hits $250,000 it'll go way past it.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-12-25", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/tim-draper-expects-bitcoin-price-to-hit-250000-in-2024/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I would say that my number $250,000 will probably come pretty soon... if it hits $250,000, it'll go way past it... I think this year we might see $250,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $108,389 through the 2024-12-31 horizon; never reached $250,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach about $120,000 by the end of 2024.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 120000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-26", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-tim-draper-predicts-bitcoin-193016888.html", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "This is just the beginning! If you are asking about price prediction, I would say about Bitcoin will reach about $120,000 by end of year.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $108,389 through the 2024-12-31 horizon; never reached $120,000." }, { "claim_text": "2025 is the year Bitcoin will finally hit Draper's mark of $250,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-11-26", "specificity": 48, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-tim-draper-predicts-bitcoin-193016888.html", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "I think 2025 is the year Bitcoin will finally hit my mark of $250,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $250,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will hit $250,000 by the end of 2025 (and replace the U.S. dollar within a decade).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-13", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/coindesk-news/2025/05/13/bitcoin-will-replace-us-dollar-in-10-years-says-billionaire-vc-tim-draper", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "Bitcoin will hit $250,000 by the end of 2025 and replace the U.S. dollar within a decade, according to billionaire venture capitalist Tim Draper in a CoinDesk Spotlight interview. (Confirmed at https://nftevening.com/tim-draper-bitcoin-hit-250000-replace-the-dollar-in-a-decade/, published May 15, 2025, BTC ~$102,991 at the time.)", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $250,000." }, { "claim_text": "Draper calls $250,000 Bitcoin in six months, and all up from there β€” $1, $2, maybe $10 million before bitcoin eclipses the use of the dollar (after his Divot podcast appearance).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2026-07-19", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-19", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/tim-draper-bets-big-again-calls-250k-bitcoin-in-six-months/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Now I'm calling $250,000 in six months, and all up from there. $1, $2 maybe $10 million before bitcoin eclipses the use of the dollar.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $93,630 since 2026-01-19); 2026-07-19 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Draper has 'reason to believe' Bitcoin will climb to $250,000 in 18 months (from April 2026, i.e. ~October 2027).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2027-10-16", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-16", "specificity": 70, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/tim-draper-accurately-predicted-bitcoin-193102134.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Tim Draper ... has 'reason to believe' that the leading cryptocurrency will climb to $250,000 in 18 months.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-16); 2027-10-16 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Tim Draper predicts Bitcoin will hit $250k, then $1M, then $10M as the dollar weakens and Bitcoin becomes the global store of value.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-05-11", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/anthony-pompliano3/episodes/Can-Bitcoin-Hit-1-Million---Anthony-Pompliano-e3j7h97", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "it'll hit $250,000, but it's going to hit a million. It's going to hit $10 million on its way to where the dollar is no longer accepted, no longer worth it. And Bitcoin is the one source of store of value and currency for the world eventually.", "timestamp": "0:01:22", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,379 since 2026-05-11); 2031-05-11 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $250,000 in 2026.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-07", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TimDraper/status/2009043285709627819", "source_type": "x", "quote": "2026 will be big. #Bitcoin goes mainstream. My $250k prediction finally reached.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2026-01-07); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will 4x from its February 2026 price level within two years.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 320000, "deadline": "2028-02-18", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-18", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TimDraper/status/2024218632730100109", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Prediction: Bitcoin 4x in less than 2 years from here. #bitcoin #opportunity Maybe a @Polymarket bet?", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-02-18); 2028-02-18 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "timothy-peterson", "name": "Timothy Peterson", "handles": { "x": "@nsquaredcrypto", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.caneisland.com" }, "category": [ "economist", "quant", "model-builder" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 32600, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/nsquaredvalue (reported ~32.6K followers for @nsquaredvalue via search aggregation; X auth-walled so not directly opened)" }, "score": 16.7, "score_adj": 18.9, "avg_specificity": 67, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 6, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 5, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "The year is 2035. Bitcoin is at $1.5 million per coin (long-term Metcalfe's-Law projection).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1500000, "deadline": "2035-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-08", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://zycrypto.com/analyst-who-correctly-predicted-bitcoins-2024-rebound-unveils-new-price-traget-and-it-may-surprise-you/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "\"The year is 2035. Bitcoin is at β€” and you can hold me to this β€” $1.5 million,\" Peterson stated in his prediction.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-01-08); 2035-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Lowest Price Forward metric now sets Bitcoin's floor at $69,000; there is a 95% chance Bitcoin will not fall below this level again.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 69000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2025-03-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-price-likely-stay-above-080013450.html", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Peterson's \"Lowest Price Forward\" metric establishes a $69,000 price floor with \"a 95% chance that Bitcoin will not fall below this level again.\"", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-03-04..2026-07-01], below the $69,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high within 100 days, with $107,000 reachable in weeks and $135,000 within 100 days if the VIX stays low.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 135000, "deadline": "2025-08-09", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-01", "specificity": 84, "citation": { "url": "https://www.cointribune.com/en/bitcoin-could-rise-to-135000-in-100-days/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "he argued that \"if the VIX stays low, it will create the necessary conditions for bitcoin to hit a new all-time high within the next 100 days.\" ... Bitcoin could reach $135,000 within 100 days (by approximately early August 2025) ... Post Date on X: May 1, 2025", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $123,231 through the 2025-08-09 horizon; never reached $135,000." }, { "claim_text": "There is a 50% or greater likelihood of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by early November (2025).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2025-11-07", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-25", "specificity": 76, "citation": { "url": "https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1151453-20250926", "source_type": "article", "quote": "a 50% or greater likelihood of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by early November of this year", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted >=50% chance of a new ATH by early Nov 2025; BTC rose from $109,036 to a new ATH high of $126,296 well within the window (the prior ATH was ~$124k), so the predicted event occurred." }, { "claim_text": "There is at least a 50% chance Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high of $200,000 by June 2026 (requires ~7% average monthly return).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2026-06-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-25", "specificity": 68, "citation": { "url": "https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1151453-20250926", "source_type": "article", "quote": "there is at least a 50% chance that the Bitcoin price could reach a new all-time high of $200,000 by June 2026", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-06-30 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140,000 (end of October 2025); 43% chance it finishes below $136,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 140000, "deadline": "2025-10-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-10-07", "specificity": 90, "citation": { "url": "https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605005787", "source_type": "article", "quote": "\"There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140K\" (Peterson also noted a 43% chance it could finish below $136,000) ... based on \"hundreds of simulations\" using Bitcoin's daily price data since 2015", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $125,226 through the 2025-10-31 horizon; never reached $140,000." }, { "claim_text": "50% of the past 24 months have been positive, implying an 88% chance Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now (early 2027), with an average return of ~82% implying a price near $122,000.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2027-01-01", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-22", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://bitbo.io/news/peterson-bitcoin-higher-december/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Peterson stated: \"50% of the past 24 months have been positive. This implies a 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now.\" ... Bitcoin Price: Trading near $68,173 at publication time", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted ~88% chance BTC higher 10 months out (early 2027) near $122,000; window still open to 2027-01-01 but price collapsed from $67,618 to $58,161 and the deadline-window high was only $82,814, never approaching $122k β€” but as the window has not elapsed this is undetermined." } ] }, { "id": "tone-vays", "name": "Tone Vays", "handles": { "x": "@ToneVays", "nostr": null, "youtube": "Tone Vays", "web": "https://www.tonevays.com" }, "category": [ "trader", "derivatives", "technical-analyst", "youtuber" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 290200, "as_of": "2025-01-08", "source": "https://dailyhodl.com/2025/01/08/trader-tone-vays-flips-bullish-and-goes-fully-long-on-bitcoin-outlines-btc-path-to-new-all-time-high/" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": 30.9, "avg_specificity": 39, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 7, "counts": { "correct": 3, "wrong": 3, "partial": 1, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Tone Vays believes Bitcoin will reach the $100,000 price level by the end of 2021 (a target he pinned to a tweet on May 30, 2021, and reiterated in August/October 2021).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-10-07", "specificity": 78, "citation": { "url": "https://coincodex.com/article/12558/cryptocurrency-analyst-tone-vays-predicts-100k-bitcoin-by-the-end-of-the-year", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Tone Vays believes we are going to see BTC reach the $100,000 price level by the end of 2021.", "timestamp": "2021-10-07T12:30:00Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Vays maintained a bearish mid- to long-term stance, saying he would consider the market turned from mid- to long-term bearish if Bitcoin broke below $35,000, with a worst-case descending-triangle scenario delaying the next bull run into 2023.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 35000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-12-29", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coincodex.com/article/13277/is-the-bitcoin-drop-over-tone-vays-outlines-his-mid-to-long-term-market-forecast", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Vays maintained a bearish outlook, stating he would consider markets 'turned from mid- to long-term bearish' if Bitcoin broke below the $35,000 level ... a descending triangle formation (similar to 2018's pattern) that could delay the next bull run into 2023.", "timestamp": "2021-12-29", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bearish-if-below-$35k call: BTC did break far below $35k (low $15,460 in Nov 2022) confirming the bearish leg, but the implied delay of the next bull run 'into 2023' was wrong β€” the bull run resumed strongly in 2023-2024 to $126,296; mixed outcome." }, { "claim_text": "In a March 2023 strategy session, Vays forecast Bitcoin could rally toward an initial target of $200,000 sometime in 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-03-06", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2023/03/06/veteran-trader-tone-vays-forecasts-bitcoin-btc-breakout-to-300000-heres-his-timeline/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Looking at the trader's chart, it appears that he thinks Bitcoin could rally toward his initial target of $200,000 some time in 2025.", "timestamp": "2023-03-06", "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/2id_/https://dailyhodl.com/2023/03/06/veteran-trader-tone-vays-forecasts-bitcoin-btc-breakout-to-300000-heres-his-timeline/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "In the same March 2023 session, Vays said that if Bitcoin rallies higher it could reach $300,000 in late 2025 or early 2026.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 300000, "deadline": "2026-06-20", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-03-06", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2023/03/06/veteran-trader-tone-vays-forecasts-bitcoin-btc-breakout-to-300000-heres-his-timeline/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Should BTC go higher and rally to $300,000, Vays believes that can happen in late 2025 or early 2026.", "timestamp": "2023-03-06", "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/2id_/https://dailyhodl.com/2023/03/06/veteran-trader-tone-vays-forecasts-bitcoin-btc-breakout-to-300000-heres-his-timeline/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-06-20 horizon; never reached $300,000." }, { "claim_text": "Vays said Bitcoin very likely bottomed back in November 2022 around the $15,000 range, and that once it breaks $25,000 resistance he becomes incredibly bullish to at least the $30,000-$35,000 area.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 15000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-03-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2023/03/14/bitcoin-has-very-likely-bottomed-with-technicals-lining-up-perfectly-says-trader-tone-vays-heres-his-upside-target/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Tone Vays says Bitcoin likely bottomed back in November 2022, when BTC hit the $15,000 price range. ... Once we break all this resistance, I become incredibly bullish on Bitcoin to at least this $30,000 to $35,000 area.", "timestamp": "2023-03-14", "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/2id_/https://dailyhodl.com/2023/03/14/bitcoin-has-very-likely-bottomed-with-technicals-lining-up-perfectly-says-trader-tone-vays-heres-his-upside-target/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said Nov-2022 ~$15k was likely the bottom and he turns bullish above $25k toward $30-35k; the $15,460 low held as the cycle bottom and BTC broke $25k and blew past $30-35k to $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "In February 2024 Vays said Bitcoin could rally to around $48,000 and turn into a 'super bull' situation on consecutive weekly closes above $43,500.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 48000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-02-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://en.coin-turk.com/bitcoin-price-dynamics-and-analyst-tone-vays-predictions/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "He suggested Bitcoin could rally to $48,000 and climb higher if it stays above key resistance ... 'consecutive closings above $43,500' would signal a 'super bull' situation.", "timestamp": "2024-02-06", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Feb 2024 call for a rally to ~$48k and 'super bull' above $43,500; from $43,096 BTC closed above $43,500 and rallied through $48k to a high of $126,296." }, { "claim_text": "On Jan 7, 2025, Vays flipped bullish and announced he was back to fully long in Bitcoin at around $100,000 (after exiting longs Nov 22, 2024 at $97,800), expecting a move to $120,000 and beyond / a new all-time high.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 120000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-01-07", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2025/01/08/trader-tone-vays-flips-bullish-and-goes-fully-long-on-bitcoin-outlines-btc-path-to-new-all-time-high/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Now that the year is over, I am now back to fully long in Bitcoin as of this afternoon at a price of around $100,000. ... setting us up for a move to 120 and beyond.", "timestamp": "2025-01-08", "archived_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/2id_/https://dailyhodl.com/2025/01/08/trader-tone-vays-flips-bullish-and-goes-fully-long-on-bitcoin-outlines-btc-path-to-new-all-time-high/", "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Jan 2025 flip to fully long ~$100k expecting $120k+/new ATH; BTC reached $126,296, exceeding $120k and setting a new all-time high as predicted." } ] }, { "id": "trace-mayer", "name": "Trace Mayer", "handles": { "x": "@TraceMayer", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.tracemayer.net/" }, "category": [ "early_investor", "podcaster", "analyst" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 70000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/tracemayer" }, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will outperform gold over the next 15 years. Mayer says he remains 'firmly in the bitcoin-over-gold camp for the next 15 years,' citing Bitcoin's fixed 21 million supply versus gold's supply expanding in response to price and technological advances (e.g. asteroid mining).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2041-05-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-28", "specificity": 26, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/05/28/dnp-trace-mayer-bitcoin-s-volatility-compression-is-a-sign-of-maturity-not-weakness", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Mayer remains firmly in the bitcoin-over-gold camp for the next 15 years, citing Bitcoin's fixed 21 million supply versus gold's vulnerability to increased supply from technological advances like asteroid mining.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "BTC-outperforms-gold over 15 years (deadline 2041-05-31); window barely open, far too early to judge β€” BTC essentially flat-to-down since the call ($73,513 to $58,161)." } ] }, { "id": "travis-kling", "name": "Travis Kling", "handles": { "x": "@Travis_Kling", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.ikigai.io" }, "category": [ "fund_manager", "macro", "trader" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 106000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/Travis_Kling" }, "score": 100, "score_adj": 100, "avg_specificity": 24, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has essentially a 'free walk' to new all-time highs amid an unprecedented bullish setup (spot ETFs, upcoming halving, Fed easing); crypto will have to do very little 'work' to get BTC into the high $60,000s.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 69000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-02-06", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/02/36940371/s-tcoin-prices-will-rip-investment-expert-goes-viral-telling-why-people-want-to-gamble-on-", "source_type": "article", "quote": "BTC Has Essentially A Free Walk To ATHs ... Crypto will have to do very little 'work' to get BTC into the high $60,000s. It will likely just 'happen' because we have ETFs and the Fed is easing.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Feb 2024 'free walk to ATHs / into the high $60,000s'; from $43,096 BTC reached the high-$60ks and went on to new ATHs at $126,296, with ETFs and Fed easing as cited." }, { "claim_text": "The major driver for this cycle is whether the US gets a Bitcoin strategic reserve. If a strategic reserve materializes, 'you are talking about $300,000-plus Bitcoin' because it would spark a sovereign bidding war; without that catalyst, 'we're in the mid to high hundreds [of thousands].'", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 300000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2024-12-10", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coinage.media/s3/bitcoin-to-usd300k-travis-kling-on-why-trumps-btc-reserve-just-got-critical", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "you are talking about $300,000-plus Bitcoin ... because I think it would spark a sovereign bidding war. ... If you don't have something like that, then to me, I think we're in the mid to high hundreds.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-12-10); 2027-06-10 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "truth-block", "name": "Truth Block", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": 100, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 1, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 6 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Host Hurley expects one more shakeout then a slow grind back toward six figures for Bitcoin, with 2027 setting up like pre-bull-run years.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2027", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-17", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Did-Elon-Ring-the-Bell-on-the-Top--The-Great-Capital-Rotation-is-Coming---Truth-Block-e3kt0a4", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "We could get one more shakeout in a turn late this summer. Then a slow grind back towards six figures. And 2027 starts to rhyme with the setup years before every big run.", "timestamp": "0:16:07", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicts one more shakeout then a slow grind back toward six figures with 2027 setting up like pre-bull years; window runs to 2027 and outcome is undetermined β€” BTC at $58,161, no grind back to six figures yet." }, { "claim_text": "Host Hurley (Truth Block) believes Bitcoin will not fall to $40,000 and is at or very near a bottom in the current range.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 40000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-09", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Did-the-Bitcoin-Bottom-Just-Print--Or-Is-the-Worst-Still-Coming---Truth-Block-e3khb8h", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "My read and my gut, which is not financial advice, is I don't think we're going to 40k... everything I'm looking at says we're at or very near a bottom right here.", "timestamp": "0:14:32", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $40,000 (through 2026-07-01)." }, { "claim_text": "Truth Block (host) personally expects Bitcoin to grind sideways for a while and would not be surprised if price revisits the $50,000s.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Is-AI-Killing-Bitcoin--The-Brutal-Truth-Behind-the-Crash---Truth-Block-e3kbt5m", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think we grind around here for a while, and it wouldn't shock me if we revisit the 50s. The 200-week moving average, which has marked basically every bottom, is sitting right around $61,700.", "timestamp": "0:09:41", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Expected sideways grind and would not be surprised by a revisit of the $50,000s; from $63,806 BTC fell into the $50,000s ($58,161 current, low since $58,000), fulfilling the revisit-the-50s call." }, { "claim_text": "Hurley reiterates that $1 million per Bitcoin is where the math and physics point, not merely a dream.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2026-05-15", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/This-Law-of-Nature-Proves-1-Million-Bitcoin-is-Destiny---Truth-Block-e3jd4mm", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "this is why $1 million per Bitcoin isn't a dream. It's where the math and physics point.", "timestamp": "0:15:11", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $81,650 since 2026-05-15); 2031-05-15 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will go higher once real rates flip negative under the new Fed chair because that is the only macro regime Bitcoin has ever rallied in.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-04-30", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/The-Fed-Regime-Change-That-Sets-Off-Bitcoins-Biggest-Rally-Ever---Truth-Block-e3innki", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "if his decision is, I'm betting on AI and I am not going to raise rates, even though inflation is above three-month bills, that is the serious point in time where I think Bitcoin is going to go higher", "timestamp": "0:13:14", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Conditional on real rates flipping negative under the new Fed chair, then BTC goes higher; the macro trigger condition is not stated to have occurred and there is no deadline β€” undetermined, BTC has fallen from $76,306 to $58,161." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has another year to year-and-a-half before it makes a real run back toward its highs.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2028", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-06-30", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/Saylor-Was-Supposed-to-Trigger-a-Bitcoin-Death-Spiral--He-Just-Did-the-Opposite---Truth-Block-e3lf08m", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think yes, it's a bubble, but it's got another year, year and a half to go... And Bitcoin's own cycle points to that same stretch before it makes a real run back towards the highs.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Resolves TRUE if BTC begins a real move back toward its ~$126k highs roughly 12-18 months out (late 2027 to mid-2028); a forward timing call on BTC's next run." }, { "claim_text": "Hurley (Truth Block) argues that $1 million per Bitcoin is inevitable, based on the Bitcoin power law.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-15", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/simplybitcoin/episodes/This-Law-of-Nature-Proves-1-Million-Bitcoin-is-Destiny---Truth-Block-e3jd4mm", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "the reason $1 million per coin is inevitable. Today, I give you the clearest explanation of the Bitcoin power law that exists on this side of the internet, and once you see it, you will never look at the price the same way again.", "timestamp": "0:00:17", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $81,650 since 2026-05-15); 2032-05-15 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." } ] }, { "id": "tuur-demeester", "name": "Tuur Demeester", "handles": { "x": "@TuurDemeester", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://adamantresearch.com" }, "category": [ "investor", "analyst", "early-bitcoiner" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 307000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://dev.twitterscore.io/twitter/TuurDemeester/" }, "score": 57.1, "score_adj": 24, "avg_specificity": 14, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 7, "counts": { "correct": 4, "wrong": 3, "partial": 0, "pending": 4 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will trade roughly $22k-$42k until a new multi-year bull market pushes it 'well north of $120k' as the endgame for this cycle.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 120000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2023-12-15", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/bitcoin-btc-price-well-north-of-120000-tuur-demeesters-forecast", "source_type": "article", "quote": "for bitcoin to trade in a range of $22k to $42k, until a new multi-year bull market pushes it well north of $120k.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2023-12-15..2026-06-15], reaching the $120,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "Targeting $200k-$600k Bitcoin by 2026, fueled by trillions in global bailouts/stimulus (lower bound of the range modeled as the floor target by end-2026).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2026-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-02-12", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TuurDemeester/status/1757157499755520334", "source_type": "x", "quote": "In '21 bitcoin topped at $69k. I'm targeting $200-$600k by 2026. Fueled by $ trillions in global bailouts/stimulus.", "timestamp": "2024-02-12", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-02-12); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The traditional Bitcoin four-year halving cycle is going to be gone, due to institutional adoption (ETFs), nation-state buying, and the breakdown of bonds as an alternative.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-03-04", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.tftc.io/will-bitcoin-hit-1m-this-cycle/", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "I think it's important to really consider the idea of that four year cycle. It's going to be gone...", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claimed the four-year halving cycle 'is going to be gone'; price action since (April-2024 halving, peak $126,296 in late 2025 then decline to $58,161) traced a textbook four-year-cycle top-and-fade, so the cycle did not disappear." }, { "claim_text": "Gold parity will act as a magnet for Bitcoin; investors will consider ~$800,000-$1,000,000 the main BTC price target during this bull market.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 800000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2024-11-10", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2024/11/10/800000-bitcoin-tuur-demeester-says-eye-watering-btc-price-target-in-play-based-on-outperformance-of-gold/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "investors will consider ~$800,000 - $1 million to be the main Bitcoin price target during the bull market; wherever BTC's price tops out, 'eyes will water'.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-11-10); 2027-05-10 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "In a way the Bitcoin bull market hasn't even started yet; a decisive break above all-time-high vs gold opens a path toward ~10 kg of gold (~$945,000 then), over 10x from the ~$83,300 spot price.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 945000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2025-03-13", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/03/14/in-a-way-the-bitcoin-bull-market-hasnt-even-started-yet-researcher-tuur-demeester/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "In a way, the bitcoin bull market hasn't even started yet", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-03-13); 2027-09-13 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is mid-cycle in one of the most significant bull runs in its history, with a path toward 4-10x appreciation implying price targets north of $500,000 this cycle.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2025-08-10", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://bitbo.io/news/tuur-demeester-500k-bitcoin/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "We think this is the mid-cycle in what could become one of the most significant bull runs in bitcoin's history. From its current range, we believe there is still a path toward a 4-10x value appreciation, which would imply bitcoin price targets north of $500,000.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-08-10); 2028-02-10 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "The current Bitcoin bull market will not follow the historical four-year cycle and will instead extend by roughly another year to a year and a half, producing a longer cycle.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2027-02-18", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-18", "specificity": 46, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9/items/y5MrtFdPoqNnnvvHTSKy/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "are gobbling up the coins as soon as they look a little cheaper. And so to me, that means that there's probably going to be a longer cycle. That's why I'm so bullish in the report saying like, hey, we could tack on another entire year or even a year and a half to this bull market. I think that's a big question on everybody's mind. Is this different?", "timestamp": "0:09:30", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a longer cycle extending the bull ~1-1.5 yrs; instead BTC topped ~$126,296 (Oct 2025) and crashed ~54% to $58,161 by mid-2026 β€” the bull ended early rather than extending." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's bull market is still early and significant 20–30% corrections are coming before the cycle top.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-01-11", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/A-New-Era-for-Bitcoin-with-Tuur-Demeester-SLP540-e2ea803", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "You have these like big 20%, 30% corrections. I think those are coming. But it's very encouraging to me that the pullbacks have been so light, so superficial. It's telling me this is still very early in the bull market.", "timestamp": "0:26:28", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "From $46,343 BTC rallied 2.7x to $126,296 with corrections along the way β€” 'still very early' and 'big corrections coming' both played out." }, { "claim_text": "Tuur Demeester believes this Bitcoin bull market has significantly more upside remaining and disagrees with the consensus view that $100k was the cycle top.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-03", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC2373830816.mp3?updated=1756832567", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I don't think so. I haven't seen a mania. Like it just, my gut was like, I think there's a lot more here. So it was a great motivation to dig in again and actually look at the data and see what comes out.", "timestamp": "0:02:31", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Made above $100k at $111,756; BTC then rose to $126,296, so $100k was not the cycle top β€” more upside materialized as claimed." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is in a longer cycle with a top expected sometime between January and September 2026.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026-09-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-08", "specificity": 30, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/TuurDemeester/status/1953712607770128443", "source_type": "x", "quote": "using i.a. blockchain analysis, I suggest a longer bitcoin cycle with a top sometime between January & September 2026.", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted top between Jan-Sep 2026; the actual peak ($126,296) occurred ~Oct 2025 before the window, and BTC was deep in drawdown ($58,161) by mid-2026." }, { "claim_text": "Tuur Demeester predicts Bitcoin is entering a massive bull market that will move very fast and feel scary at times.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-06-05", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD822_Tuur_Demeester.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I still think this is going to be a massive bull market. It's going to set your hair on fire. I think it's going to be kind of scary at times how fast this is going to move.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "From $71,121 BTC ran to $126,296 (1.78x) β€” a massive, fast bull move as predicted, later followed by a 'scary' crash." } ] }, { "id": "tyler-winklevoss", "name": "Tyler Winklevoss", "handles": { "x": "@tyler", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://gemini.com" }, "category": [ "exchange-founder", "investor", "bitcoin-maximalist" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 1100000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitterscore.io/twitter/tyler/" }, "score": 0, "score_adj": 0, "avg_specificity": 50, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 2, "partial": 0, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will reach $500,000 within the decade if it disrupts gold and captures gold's ~$10-11 trillion market cap (21M supply / gold market cap => ~$500k per BTC).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 500000, "deadline": "2030-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-06-07", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/money/2023/06/07/winklevoss-twins-bitcoin-will-reach-500000/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If you do the maths on 21 million in the supply of Bitcoin, the market cap of gold, let us say it is $10 trillion, maybe it is $11 [trillion], somewhere in that ballpark, that puts one Bitcoin – if it disrupts gold, and gets that market cap – at $500,000. ... When we wrote a piece on the value that predicted it being $500,000 Bitcoin, we said within the decade. Is that in three years from now or nine years? The timing part is hard.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-06-07); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will trade at $1 million a coin if it disrupts gold; 'easily a 10x from here' (BTC ~$115k at the time), framed as the next ~decade.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2035-09-12", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-12", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/winklevoss-twins-see-bitcoin-trading-010302220.html", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "It's still very much the bottom of the first inning, because we see bitcoin trading at $1 million a Bitcoin, if it disrupts gold. ... We think there's easily a 10x from here. It's still really early. And I think we'll be sitting here 10 years from now and looking back and saying, 'Wow, today was really early.'", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-09-12); 2035-09-12 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "'It's still very much the bottom of the first inning' β€” directional/regime call that Bitcoin's bull run is only just beginning, with enormous upside ahead.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-09-12", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/winklevoss-twins-see-bitcoin-trading-010302220.html", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "It's still very much the bottom of the first inning, because we see bitcoin trading at $1 million a Bitcoin, if it disrupts gold.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called 'bottom of the first inning' at $116,106; BTC peaked at $126,296 then crashed ~54% to $58,161 β€” the run topped out, not just beginning." }, { "claim_text": "Tweeted '30k bitcoin by the end of the weekend?' β€” an upside directional call that BTC would reach $30,000 by the end of that weekend (made when BTC was ~$26,500 amid March 2023 banking turmoil).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 30000, "deadline": "2023-03-19", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-03-17", "specificity": 100, "citation": { "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/tyler-winklevoss-project-30k-bitcoin-before-end-of-the-weekend-3033861", "source_type": "article", "quote": "30k bitcoin by the end of the weekend? β€” Tyler Winklevoss (@tyler) March 17, 2023", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Asked '$30k by end of weekend?' from $27,454; high by 2023-03-19 deadline was only $28,478 β€” never reached $30k." } ] }, { "id": "vijay-boyapati", "name": "Vijay Boyapati", "handles": { "x": "@real_vijay", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://vijayboyapati.medium.com/" }, "category": [ "author", "analyst", "bitcoiner" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 167400, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://www.tweeps.in/featured/real_vijay.html" }, "score": 50, "score_adj": 50, "avg_specificity": 12, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 4, "counts": { "correct": 2, "wrong": 2, "partial": 0, "pending": 2 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Posting a chart of altcoins falling vs Bitcoin while Bitcoin rises vs USD, Boyapati noted: 'This was Q4 2017, just as the #bitcoin price went parabolic.' β€” implying Bitcoin was at the start of a parabolic upward move comparable to the late-2017 blowoff.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-10-11", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/bitcoin-rising-altcoins-falling-analyst-vijay-boyapati-explains-what-this-means", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Alt-coins falling against #Bitcoin, Bitcoin rising against USD. This was Q4 2017, just as the #bitcoin price went parabolic.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Flagged start of a parabolic move (Q4-2017 analogy) on 2021-10-11 at $57,487; BTC went parabolic to its ~$69k all-time-high blowoff weeks later, as in late 2017." }, { "claim_text": "Vijay Boyapati believes Bitcoin can easily do a 10x from current levels (~$94K at recording), implying a price around $940K.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-01", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/Bitcoin-vs-Gold-The-Future-of-Monetary-Assets-with-Vijay-Boyapati--SLP654-e3283su", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitcoin can do a 10x from here easy. That's totally possible. I think it's very, very unlikely that gold could do a 10x. Because it's already a $20 trillion asset.", "timestamp": "0:12:47", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'Can do 10x from here' (~$940k) is open-ended with no deadline; BTC only reached $126,296 then fell to $58,161 β€” far from 10x but the long-horizon window has not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Vijay Boyapati is very confident that Bitcoin will eventually surpass gold's market cap (implying a price well above $1M per coin).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-01", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/Bitcoin-vs-Gold-The-Future-of-Monetary-Assets-with-Vijay-Boyapati--SLP654-e3283su", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I feel very confident that Bitcoin is going to surpass gold's market cap. And I'm happy to say to anyone", "timestamp": "0:22:12", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "'Bitcoin will eventually surpass gold's market cap' (>$1M) is explicitly long-horizon/open-ended with no deadline β€” undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could trade in a range of $90k–$120k for months in 2024 before a final parabolic move to $250k or higher into the cycle top.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 250000, "deadline": "2024", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-03-26", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/stephan-livera/episodes/How-to-Ride-Through-This-Bitcoin-Bull-Cycle-with-Vijay-Boyapati-SLP559-e2hj69d", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "we could be kind of moving around 90,000 to 120,000 for like months this year. And then all of a sudden we go from 120,000 to 250,000 in the last like month. Something like that would not surprise me at all, because it is the nature of these parabolic moves that most of the move happens at the end.", "timestamp": "0:06:15", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $108,389 through the 2024-12-31 horizon; never reached $250,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is on track to reach $80K.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 80000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-05-04", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/real_vijay/status/2051125396196962657", "source_type": "x", "quote": "We're on deck for 80k πŸ‘€", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-05-04..2026-07-01], reaching the $80,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "The Bitcoin bear market bottom is in.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-05-28", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/real_vijay/status/2059994123374153831", "source_type": "x", "quote": "\"I feel fairly confident the bottom is in.\" β€” @real_vijay, on this week's episode of The Last Trade", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called 'the bottom is in' at $73,513; BTC then fell ~21% to $58,000/$58,161 β€” not the bottom." } ] }, { "id": "vinny-lingham", "name": "Vinny Lingham", "handles": { "x": "@VinnyLingham", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": null }, "category": [ "vc", "entrepreneur", "investor" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 231400, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/VinnyLingham" }, "score": 56.2, "score_adj": 27.3, "avg_specificity": 28, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 8, "counts": { "correct": 3, "wrong": 2, "partial": 3, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "If $30K continues to hold, we'll likely break $100K bitcoin this year (2021).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-06-28", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/oracle-vinny-lingham-envisions-100k-this-year-bitcoin-continues-hold-30k/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If $30K continues to hold, we'll likely break $100K bitcoin this year", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could reach $120,000 by the end of the year if Trump wins the election; if he loses, it might tank.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 120000, "deadline": "2024-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-08-01", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://www.biznews.com/interviews/2024/08/01/bitcoin-sa-investment-health-nuclear-vinny-lingham", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "Yes, if Trump wins, Bitcoin could rise. If he loses, it might tank.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $108,389 through the 2024-12-31 horizon; never reached $120,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin critical levels right now: $64k - we lose that and we retest $60k very quickly but there is still hope for a bounce. $60k - this is the most critical support level of this cycle. A sharp V-shaped bounce here forms a double bottom. If we lose $60k, violent cascading liquidations ensue and you can kiss any recovery goodbye, at least until the next halving approaches; you'll probably see a bunch of treasury companies for both BTC and ETH blow up (a 2022-type blow up).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-23", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://u.today/prominent-vc-names-dire-consequences-of-btc-losing-60k", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If we lose $60k, violent cascading liquidations ensue, and you can kiss any recovery goodbye, at least until the next halving approaches", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "$60k support held and produced the hoped-for bounce (to $82,814 from $64,626), but $60k was later lost, dropping BTC to $58,161 β€” both the bounce and the eventual breakdown he warned of occurred." }, { "claim_text": "When asked if Bitcoin had bottomed in the Feb 2026 drawdown: 'I don't think that we've seen the end of the pain' / 'Do I think Bitcoin's bottomed? Absolutely not.'", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-12", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.coinage.media/2026/analyst-who-predicted-the-bitcoin-crash-on-calling-a-bottom", "source_type": "article", "quote": "I don't think that we've seen the end of the pain", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called more pain / not bottomed at $66,208 on 2026-02-12; BTC fell further to $58,000 low and sits at $58,161 β€” the predicted continued decline played out." }, { "claim_text": "If Bitcoin breaks below $60,000 on this retracement, expect significantly more downside.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-06-18", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/VinnyLingham/status/2067687187005763734", "source_type": "x", "quote": "If Bitcoin dips below $60k on this retrace, look out below…", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-06-18..2026-07-01] β€” a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will retest $60k after the $72k bounce, which he views as a dead cat bounce.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-02-24", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/VinnyLingham/status/2026147261575504343", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$72k was a dead cat bounce. Now we retest $60k…", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-02-24..2026-07-01], reaching the $60,000 downside target." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is officially in a bear market cycle and the current bounce is a dead cat bounce with lower prices ahead.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-02-06", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/VinnyLingham/status/2019878999057453115", "source_type": "x", "quote": "I have high conviction that this is a dead cat bounce, and we're officially in a Bitcoin bear market cycle.\n\nWould love to hear thoughts from @ZeroHedge_ @CalebFranzen", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called dead-cat bounce / bear cycle with lower prices at $70,528; BTC dropped to $58,000 low and is at $58,161 now β€” meaningfully lower as predicted." }, { "claim_text": "The $60k–$72k range was a dead cat bounce implying further downside below $60k ahead.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 60000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2026-02-14", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/VinnyLingham/status/2022477573780037683", "source_type": "x", "quote": "$60-72k was a 20% bounce (dead cat imho), but maybe it's different this time…", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-27" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-02-14..2026-07-01] β€” a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor." } ] }, { "id": "walker-america", "name": "Walker America", "handles": {}, "category": [ "commentator" ], "followers": null, "score": null, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": null, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 0, "counts": { "correct": 0, "wrong": 0, "partial": 0, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is not done running yet and will reach new all-time highs, drawing a massive influx of buyers in 2026.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2026", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-12-15", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/paBeJqepFBns3bT2OAtC/items/BnL4GSgvUPxnWrrqAakX/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I don't think Bitcoin is done running yet. I think in 2026, we're going to see a massive influx of people. Like they don't want it when it's on sale. They want it when it's at new all-time highs. That's when they pile in.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-28" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted new all-time highs in 2026; BTC only reached $97,964 (below prior ATH ~$126,296) and fell to $58,161, but the 2026 window is not yet elapsed." } ] }, { "id": "will-clemente", "name": "Will Clemente", "handles": { "x": "@WClementeIII", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.reflexivityresearch.com/" }, "category": [ "on-chain-analyst", "researcher", "podcaster" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 680200, "as_of": "2023-05-10", "source": "https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/william-clemente-iii-tips-bitcoin-will-hit-six-figures-toward-end-of-2024-hall-of-flame-3078707" }, "score": 57.1, "score_adj": 58.7, "avg_specificity": 13, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 7, "counts": { "correct": 4, "wrong": 3, "partial": 0, "pending": 0 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Bitcoin has a strong chance of hitting six figures ($100k+) sometime between Q4 2024 and Q1 2025.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2025-03-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-05-10", "specificity": 54, "citation": { "url": "https://www.binance.com/en/feed/post/510531", "source_type": "article", "quote": "the price of Bitcoin could reach six figures sometime between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC traded as high as $109,358 in [2023-05-10..2025-03-31], reaching the $100,000 target." }, { "claim_text": "The market has bottomed on a multi-year view; major price appreciation over the next two years.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-05-10", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.binance.com/en/feed/post/510531", "source_type": "article", "quote": "the market has bottomed on a multi-year view", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called a multi-year bottom at $27,624 on 2023-05-10; BTC rose to $126,296 over the next two years β€” major appreciation realized." }, { "claim_text": "This wave of Bitcoin supply shock has the most momentum of any in recent history. We're going much higher over the coming months.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-09-01", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2021/09/01/bitcoin-is-going-much-higher-in-coming-months-predicts-on-chain-analyst-will-clemente/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "This wave of Bitcoin supply shock has the most momentum of any in recent history. We're going much higher over the coming months.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "At $48,840 on 2021-09-01 said going much higher over coming months; BTC rallied to ~$69k by Nov 2021 within that window." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is just now entering the main phase of the bull market (implying substantial further upside ahead).", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-11-13", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2021/11/13/heres-why-bitcoin-is-just-now-entering-the-main-phase-of-the-bull-market-says-on-chain-analyst-will-clemente/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin (BTC) is just now entering the main phase of the bull market", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Claimed 'just now entering main phase of bull market' at $64,400 on 2021-11-13 β€” that was the cycle top; BTC then crashed to $15,460, no main phase ahead." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is below the short-term holder cost basis (~$53,000). Until this is reclaimed, not bullish. Happy to flip bullish if reclaimed.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-12-12", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/2878495/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin is below the short-term holder cost basis, which currently sits at $53,000…Until this is reclaimed, not bullish.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "At $50,090 said not bullish below $53k STH cost basis; BTC fell to $15,460 thereafter β€” the bearish stance was vindicated." }, { "claim_text": "2025 target of $180K for Bitcoin (framed as a favorable risk/reward at mid-2022 prices).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 180000, "deadline": "2025-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-07-18", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.binance.com/en/feed/post/510531", "source_type": "article", "quote": "a July 2022 tweet showing a \"$180K\" 2025 target", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $180,000." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is very close to a multi-generational galactical pico-bottom where I plan to allocate all of my dry powder; great time to DCA heavily.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-05-14", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://beincrypto.com/will-clemente-bitcoin-btc-is-very-close-to-a-bottom-6-arguments/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Bitcoin is very close to a multi-generational galactical pico-bottom where I plan to allocate all of my dry powder for my grandchildren's grandchildren", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called 'very close to a multi-generational pico-bottom' at $30,042 on 2022-05-14; BTC subsequently nearly halved to $15,460 β€” not close to the bottom." } ] }, { "id": "willem-middelkoop", "name": "Willem Middelkoop", "handles": { "x": "@wmiddelkoop", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://www.cdfund.com" }, "category": [ "macro", "commodities", "fund-manager", "author" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 196800, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://x.com/wmiddelkoop" }, "score": 75, "score_adj": null, "avg_specificity": 0, "provisional": true, "n_resolved": 2, "counts": { "correct": 1, "wrong": 0, "partial": 1, "pending": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Years ago I tweeted that bitcoin would go to $100,000. Now I say: $1 million before 2030.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2029-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-05-28", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://www.crypto-insiders.nl/nieuws/bitcoin/willem-middelkoop-bitcoin-kan-naar-1-miljoen-maar-dat-heeft-een-prijs/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Ik tweette jaren geleden dat bitcoin naar $100.000 zou gaan. Nu zeg ik: $1 miljoen vΓ³Γ³r 2030.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-05-28); 2029-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is often described as a binary asset: value = zero or infinity. The zero scenario is no longer valid; Bitcoin's resilience has been proven and it has started climbing towards infinity. $1mln might not be the end.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-02-27", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://x.com/wmiddelkoop/status/1365760311714869250", "source_type": "x", "quote": "Bitcoin is often described as a binary asset. Value= Zero or Infinity The Zero-scenario is no longer valid. Bitcoin's resilience has been proven long enough now. Now it started climbing towards Infinity .. $1mln might not be the end ..", "timestamp": "2021-02-27T20:26:47Z", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "At $46,181 said zero-scenario invalid and climbing toward infinity/$1mln; BTC did rise (high $126,296, now $58,161) so direction broadly held, but the $1mln magnitude is far from realized." }, { "claim_text": "I personally think we have seen the bottom, which means a new bull market is possibly close (though it wouldn't surprise me to see the price below $20,000 once more before then).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2023-10-12", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://nieuws.btcdirect.eu/bitcoin-op-de-rand-van-een-nieuwe-bull-markt-willem-middelkoop-licht-toe/", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "denk ik persoonlijk dat we de bodem hebben gezien ... dat betekent wel dat een nieuwe bull markt mogelijk dichtbij is ... Al zou het mij niks verbazen als we de prijs voor die tijd toch nog een keer onder twintigduizend dollar gaan zien.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called the bottom at $26,751 on 2023-10-12; low since was $26,538 (never below $20k) and BTC rose to $126,296 in the ensuing bull market." } ] }, { "id": "willy-woo", "name": "Willy Woo", "handles": { "x": "@woonomic", "nostr": null, "youtube": null, "web": "https://willywoo.substack.com" }, "category": [ "on-chain analyst", "cycle theorist", "newsletter author" ], "followers": { "platform": "x", "count": 1150000, "as_of": "2026-06-20", "source": "https://twitterscore.io/twitter/woonomic/" }, "score": 39.5, "score_adj": 38.2, "avg_specificity": 28, "provisional": false, "n_resolved": 19, "counts": { "correct": 7, "wrong": 11, "partial": 1, "pending": 9 }, "predictions": [ { "claim_text": "Top Cap / on-chain models suggest Bitcoin could reach roughly $200,000-$300,000 by year's end (2021), with a base-case top-cap target near $95,000.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 200000, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-01-12", "specificity": 62, "citation": { "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/willy-woo-how-bitcoin-reaches-up-to-$300-000-by-end-of-year/id1123922160?i=1000505073171", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Willy Woo: How Bitcoin Reaches up to $300,000 by End of Year β€” top cap model suggests Bitcoin could reach approximately $95,000 by year-end, with potential for $200,000-$300,000 by year's end under accelerated trend conditions.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000." }, { "claim_text": "We'll probably never see Bitcoin going below $30k again if this on-chain pattern holds true.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 30000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "long", "made_on": "2023-11-21", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoins-30k-floor-willy-woos-onchain-analysis-predicts-enduring-stability-above-threshold/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "We'll probably never see [bitcoin] going below $30k again if this onchain pattern holds true", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's low was $35,633, held at/above $30,000 (through 2026-07-01)." }, { "claim_text": "BTC at $1m will happen easily in the next 10 years.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 1000000, "deadline": "2034-05-10", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2024-05-10", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://dailyhodl.com/2024/05/12/willy-woo-predicts-1000000-bitcoin-will-happen-easily-says-multiple-signals-now-flashing-bullish/", "source_type": "x", "quote": "What a time to be alive. BTC at $1m will happen easily in the next 10 years.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-05-10); 2034-05-10 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's ultimate-price lower bound is about $700,000, assuming a sensible 3% allocation of global wealth assets into BTC (upper theoretical bound $24m if BTC captured all $500T of global wealth).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 700000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2024-08-01", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://zycrypto.com/bitcoin-could-hit-700000-with-just-3-of-global-wealth-asserts-willy-woo/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "If we assume 3% as a sensible allocation ... then the lower bound of valuation is $700,000 Price target range", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-08-01); 2028-08-01 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Updated cycle price target: Bitcoin can surge to the $140,000-$160,000 range during this/the next cycle (a revision down from his prior $250k-$300k call).", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 140000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "cycle", "made_on": "2025-09-24", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://www.cryptopolitan.com/top-cryptos-to-buy-as-willy-woo-revamps-bitcoin-btc-price-target-after-4-years/", "source_type": "interview", "quote": "analyst Willy Woo stated that Bitcoin can surge to the $140,000-$160,000 range during the next cycle", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-09-24); 2028-03-24 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's four-year cycle is NOT dead; the 'end of four-year cycles' narrative is not supported by data. Two drivers persist: internal halving supply shock and the four-year global liquidity cycle. The pattern holds until/unless BTC climbs further into 2026 and exhibits truly non-cyclical behavior.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-01-11", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/onchain-analyst-willy-woo-defends-bitcoins-four-year-cycle-dismissing-death-of-the-pattern-narratives/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "Two impacts: internal halvening supply shock and 4-year global liquidity cycle determining risk on/off. ... [it] does not mean a resting heartbeat no longer exists just because the timing varied.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "At $90,872 argued the four-year cycle is not dead; BTC topped near $97,964 then declined to $58,161 β€” a cyclical top-and-drawdown consistent with the thesis." }, { "claim_text": "On-chain models (CVDD floor ~$45,500) signal a Bitcoin bottom forming between $46,000 and $54,000 for the current drawdown.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 54000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2026-03-30", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://coingape.com/bitcoin-price-bottom-prediction-by-on-chain-veteran-willy-woo-sparks-jitters/", "source_type": "article", "quote": "on-chain models are signaling Bitcoin bottom between $46,000 and $54,000", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "high", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted a bottom in the $46,000–$54,000 band; BTC's low since is only $58,000 (above the band) and the drawdown is still in progress, so undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's market cap rises from ~$1 trillion to $100 trillion or more as it flips gold and fiat (long-term, no deadline).", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-26", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/lXOPIetxAOEgVHrBjNBl/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "and everyone will market Bitcoin. And so I think in terms of Bitcoin going from $1 trillion to $100 or more that we all think about, that's the turning point. So the industry's matured, the infrastructure's matured, after FTX. Exchanges always wanted to hold the coins.", "timestamp": "0:15:56", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Long-term thesis, no deadline; $100T market cap (flipping gold/fiat) is far off and window is open-ended β€” undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's total network value goes from ~$1 trillion to $100 trillion or more as it flips gold and fiat; that transition is the turning point.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-26", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/lXOPIetxAOEgVHrBjNBl/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitcoin going from $1 trillion to $100 or more, that's the turning point. Bitcoin needs capital. If it's going to flip gold and it's going to flip fiat, actually that's what we're really talking about is ending fiat.", "timestamp": "0:00:00", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Same open-ended $1Tβ†’$100T flip-gold-and-fiat thesis, no deadline; transition has not occurred and window has not elapsed." }, { "claim_text": "Each Bitcoin market cycle prints a price roughly 10x higher than the prior cycle (100x in the early days), requiring 10-100x more capital to move price.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-26", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/lXOPIetxAOEgVHrBjNBl/files/AUDIO---TRANSCRIPT---DEFAULT---SRT.srt", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "And every cycle we're roughly 10x higher or in the early days, 100x higher in price, which which also means, you know, 10 to 100x more capital needs to move the price.", "timestamp": "0:22:08", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Open-ended structural 10x-per-cycle thesis, no deadline; latest cycle high $126,296 vs prior ~$69k is ~2x, but claim spans future cycles β€” undetermined." }, { "claim_text": "Willy Woo believes Bitcoin is in the tail end of its current bull market, implying price is near a cycle peak.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2025-08-20", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/PPLLC2775359272.mp3?updated=1755622422", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "We're tail end of a bull market right now. So I think a lot of people are going to get hurt and we'll have massive MNAV compression, we're going to have liquidations of some of the weakest treasury companies", "timestamp": "0:25:19", "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-20" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called 'tail end of bull market' near peak at $114,276 on 2025-08-20; BTC topped at $126,296 (~+10%) then halved to $58,161 β€” peak was indeed near." }, { "claim_text": "Willy Woo asserted that only a black swan event could push Bitcoin price below the ~$29,000 daily-close floor established during the January 2021 consolidation.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 29000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "none", "made_on": "2021-01-31", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD305_-_Willy_Woo.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "It would take a black swan to push the price below essentially what we bottomed out at in the $29,000 range on a daily close. It would really take something extreme.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PARTIAL", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC dipped to $28,800 in [2021-01-31..2022-01-28] β€” a minor break (within 0.7%) of the $29,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin is at or within 48 hours of its local bottom around $51K, and is likely to resume its upward trend.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2021-03-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-03-29", "specificity": 60, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD327_-_Willy_Woo.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I think uh we're at the bottom now... I'm pretty confident war within I think this is the bottom if if it's not within 48 hours of the bottom and so yeah um i'm i'm stacking up my long positions right now", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Local bottom call near 2021-03-31: BTC held (low $54,900) and resumed upward, rallying toward ~$64k in April β€” bottom was in as predicted." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin's cycle top model has moved up to $300K for this bull cycle.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 300000, "deadline": "2021", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-03-29", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD327_-_Willy_Woo.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "you've looking at them uh like the macro um cycle you've raised your top from 250 to 300 right um yeah yeah it's it's gone up i mean i i don't uh i have a model and the model spits out this number and the model keeps moving", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $300,000." }, { "claim_text": "We are not yet halfway through the 2021 main bull phase, implying the peak is still ahead.", "claim_type": "timing", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-03-29", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD327_-_Willy_Woo.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "they're not selling down yet so if that holds true this time yet to see um then yeah we're not halfway yet which kind of makes sense same first quarter of the the bull the bull year", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said peak still ahead on 2021-03-29; BTC went on to make higher highs to $69,000 by Nov 2021 within the window β€” more upside followed." }, { "claim_text": "Willy Woo's on-chain model points to a cycle top around $300K, and he believes the market will reach that level.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 300000, "deadline": "2021", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-04-16", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD335_-_Willy_Woo.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "you've gone from $250,000 to $300,000. It looks like it'll beat it... [Willy:] But I think so.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $300,000." }, { "claim_text": "Willy Woo stated the bull market is not over and BTC is going above $100,000–$200,000 this cycle, with $300,000 possible but less certain.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-05-21", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD351_-_Willy_Woo.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "it's going above 100,000, 200, it's looking confident. It would need to go up very quickly for us to reach above 300. So, are you, because last time we spoke, I think you said we were looking perhaps at 300 at the top. Yeah, we were on trajectory.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted $100k–$200k 'this cycle'; the 2021 cycle topped at ~$69,000 and never reached $100k (the $126,296 came in the later 2024-25 cycle)." }, { "claim_text": "Willy Woo expects Bitcoin to consolidate in the $30k–$60k range once supply shock fundamentals are respected, and projects a quick move from $42k to $50k once that level is broken.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-07-30", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD379_-_Willy_Woo.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "current supply shock we deserve to be in the 30 60 000 range um once we break 42 um i mean that's the long-term sort of line in the sand of the channel we've been playing at um and it's just really just a big gap from there to 50 40 42 to 50 is just a gap so if we break 42 um it's not going to be much time to get to 50", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "After breaking $42k on 2021-07-30, BTC moved quickly to ~$50k+ by August and traded within the called $30k–$60k consolidation range." }, { "claim_text": "Willy Woo predicts this bull cycle will extend past end of 2021 without a full-blown bear market like prior cycles, leaning toward an extended cycle theory.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2021-12-31", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-07-30", "specificity": 38, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD379_-_Willy_Woo.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "i'm beginning to think i think i talked about this last time i'm beginning to think this is not going to happen i'll be i'm actually siding towards this being um like unlike anything i think we'll go past the end of this year um and fair amount of likelihood that it won't come into a full-blown bear market like we saw in the prior cycles", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Bet on extended cycle with no full-blown bear; instead BTC topped ~$69k Nov 2021 then crashed through 2022 to $15,460 β€” a classic bear market." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin will not follow the historical 4-year halving cycle with a sharp peak and prolonged bear market; instead, the 2020-2021 bull run is structurally different and will not produce the typical cycle top.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2022", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-09-28", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD403_-_Willy_Woo.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "There's not a cycle in my reckoning. I don't think we're going to top and we're going to have another four year revolution where we have like a one year bear market. It's not looking like that at all.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Said no cycle top / no one-year bear; 2022 delivered exactly that, BTC falling from $69k to $15,460 (low_by_deadline 15,460)." }, { "claim_text": "Willy Woo says Bitcoin will break $100,000 in the next bull run, with Q1 2022 looking strong.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": "2022-06-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-10-29", "specificity": 68, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD416_-_Willy_Woo.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "I am no doubt that we're going to break 100,000 in the next run. There's so much, like, coins scooped up off the market by long-term holders that have held for more than five months. And so it's really setting up really nicely for another bull run. I'm not sure how long that's going to go, but, like, definitely multiple months from now. First quarter looks really good. May run into second quarter, I'm not sure.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2022-06-30 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Willy Woo predicted Bitcoin would not reach Plan B's S2F floor model target (roughly $98k) by end of November 2021, saying the required ~$34k move in ~5 days was not going to happen.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": "2021-11-30", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-11-27", "specificity": 66, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD429_-_Willy_Woo.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "It's not going to happen, guys. Sorry, but it's not. Not from what I'm seeing. No. You know, any... Like, it'd have to be a black swan... You know, it's just very constant accumulation by long-term investors. It's looking healthy. It's not like this thing's going to blow out of the water.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted BTC would NOT hit ~$98k by 2021-11-30; it didn't β€” high_by_deadline was only $59,250." }, { "claim_text": "Willy Woo predicted that if Bitcoin breaks its all-time high properly, it will run through to $100,000 with ease, calling the $69K–$100K range trivial to traverse.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 100000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2021-12-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD442_-_Willy_Woo.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "If we break the all-time high properly, we run through the fibs in at least, basically, 69 to 100,000 is nothing.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC's high was only $52,100 through the 2022-09-27 horizon; never reached $100,000." }, { "claim_text": "Willy Woo predicted Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high above $69,000 in 2022.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": 69000, "deadline": "2022", "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-12-27", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD442_-_Willy_Woo.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Of course we go all time high because like, at least Bitcoin fails, right? All time high is 69,000. Um, I got a chuckle at that, but it's 69,000, right?", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Predicted new ATH above $69k in 2022; BTC's 2022 high was only $52,100 and it fell to $15,460 β€” no new ATH." }, { "claim_text": "Willy Woo says the Bitcoin bottom is already in at approximately $33,000, based on on-chain data showing long-term holder dominance β€” a structurally bullish setup.", "claim_type": "price_target", "threshold_usd": 33000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2022-01-29", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD456_-_Willy_Woo.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Happy New Year, man. That's a bold statement... The bottom's in. I'm holding you to it... So what was the bottom? 33K? Yeah, something like that... 32.9. Yeah, yeah. That was the bottom that we've had recently.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "CORRECT", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell as low as $17,567 in [2022-01-29..2022-10-28], reaching the $33,000 downside target." }, { "claim_text": "Willy Woo says on-chain data is not a bear-market setup and current peak fear represents a buying opportunity, expecting a relief bounce rather than further capitulation.", "claim_type": "direction", "threshold_usd": null, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2022-01-29", "specificity": 0, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD456_-_Willy_Woo.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Structurally on chain, it's not a bear market setup, even though I would say we're at peak fear, like no doubt about it, people are really scared, which typically is, it's an opportunity to buy.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "Called 'not a bear market setup' / buying opportunity / relief bounce rather than capitulation at $38,191, but BTC fell ~60% further to a low of $15,460 amid the deepening 2022 bear market and capitulation events β€” the opposite of the predicted move." }, { "claim_text": "Willy Woo says it would be extremely unlikely for Bitcoin to capitulate from $33K down to $20K given the pace and structure of the drawdown.", "claim_type": "floor", "threshold_usd": 20000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": "near", "made_on": "2022-01-29", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD456_-_Willy_Woo.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "it'd be hard-pressed to capitulate from 33 down to, say, 20. Because that's like retracing something like a 2018 bear market over two and a half months instead of a year, right?", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-06-29" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "WRONG", "resolved_by": "rule", "basis": "BTC fell to $17,567 in [2022-01-29..2022-10-28], below the $20,000 floor." }, { "claim_text": "Bitcoin could still achieve 100x to 1000x returns from current levels as it approaches monetary saturation.", "claim_type": "range", "threshold_usd": 4500000, "deadline": null, "horizon_class": null, "made_on": "2021-09-28", "specificity": 24, "citation": { "url": "https://chtbl.com/track/282487/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/whatbitcoindid/WBD403_-_Willy_Woo.mp3", "source_type": "podcast", "quote": "Bitcoin is not going to do a 10,000 X from here. Other than Bitcoin, fiat going to infinity in terms of money printing. It's not. In terms of real returns of things you can buy, maybe in a gold based return. It's not going to do another 10,000 X. We might get 100 X, maybe 1,000 X.", "timestamp": null, "archived_url": null, "retrieved_on": "2026-07-01" }, "confidence": "medium", "resolution": "PENDING", "resolved_by": "agent", "basis": "At ~$45K episode date, 100x would be $4.5M and 1000x would be $45M; long-duration claim with no deadline; pending until saturation or explicit price level is reached." } ] } ] }