Willy Woo
Resolved (20)
- ✓
Bitcoin's four-year cycle is NOT dead; the 'end of four-year cycles' narrative is not supported by data. Two drivers persist: internal halving supply shock and the four-year global liquidity cycle. The pattern holds until/unless BTC climbs further into 2026 and exhibits truly non-cyclical behavior.
“Two impacts: internal halvening supply shock and 4-year global liquidity cycle determining risk on/off. ... [it] does not mean a resting heartbeat no longer exists just because the timing varied.”
At $90,872 argued the four-year cycle is not dead; BTC topped near $97,964 then declined to $58,161 — a cyclical top-and-drawdown consistent with the thesis.
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Each Bitcoin market cycle prints a price roughly 10x higher than the prior cycle (100x in the early days), requiring 10-100x more capital to move price.
“And every cycle we're roughly 10x higher or in the early days, 100x higher in price, which which also means, you know, 10 to 100x more capital needs to move the price.”
Each cycle higher held ($69,000 in 2021 -> $126,296 peak in 2025) but only ~1.8x, far short of the claimed ~10x per cycle.
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Willy Woo believes Bitcoin is in the tail end of its current bull market, implying price is near a cycle peak.
“We're tail end of a bull market right now. So I think a lot of people are going to get hurt and we'll have massive MNAV compression, we're going to have liquidations of some of the weakest treasury companies”
Called 'tail end of bull market' near peak at $114,276 on 2025-08-20; BTC topped at $126,296 (~+10%) then halved to $58,161 — peak was indeed near.
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Willy Woo says the Bitcoin bottom is already in at approximately $33,000, based on on-chain data showing long-term holder dominance — a structurally bullish setup.
“Happy New Year, man. That's a bold statement... The bottom's in. I'm holding you to it... So what was the bottom? 33K? Yeah, something like that... 32.9. Yeah, yeah. That was the bottom that we've had recently.”
BTC fell as low as $17,567 in [2022-01-29..2022-10-28], reaching the $33,000 downside target.
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Willy Woo says on-chain data is not a bear-market setup and current peak fear represents a buying opportunity, expecting a relief bounce rather than further capitulation.
“Structurally on chain, it's not a bear market setup, even though I would say we're at peak fear, like no doubt about it, people are really scared, which typically is, it's an opportunity to buy.”
Called 'not a bear market setup' / buying opportunity / relief bounce rather than capitulation at $38,191, but BTC fell ~60% further to a low of $15,460 amid the deepening 2022 bear market and capitulation events — the opposite of the predicted move.
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Willy Woo says it would be extremely unlikely for Bitcoin to capitulate from $33K down to $20K given the pace and structure of the drawdown.
“it'd be hard-pressed to capitulate from 33 down to, say, 20. Because that's like retracing something like a 2018 bear market over two and a half months instead of a year, right?”
BTC fell to $17,567 in [2022-01-29..2022-10-28], below the $20,000 floor.
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Willy Woo predicted that if Bitcoin breaks its all-time high properly, it will run through to $100,000 with ease, calling the $69K–$100K range trivial to traverse.
“If we break the all-time high properly, we run through the fibs in at least, basically, 69 to 100,000 is nothing.”
BTC's high was only $52,100 through the 2022-09-27 horizon; never reached $100,000.
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Willy Woo predicted Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high above $69,000 in 2022.
“Of course we go all time high because like, at least Bitcoin fails, right? All time high is 69,000. Um, I got a chuckle at that, but it's 69,000, right?”
Predicted new ATH above $69k in 2022; BTC's 2022 high was only $52,100 and it fell to $15,460 — no new ATH.
- ✓
Willy Woo predicted Bitcoin would not reach Plan B's S2F floor model target (roughly $98k) by end of November 2021, saying the required ~$34k move in ~5 days was not going to happen.
“It's not going to happen, guys. Sorry, but it's not. Not from what I'm seeing. No. You know, any... Like, it'd have to be a black swan... You know, it's just very constant accumulation by long-term investors. It's looking healthy. It's not like this thing's going to blow out of the water.”
Predicted BTC would NOT hit ~$98k by 2021-11-30; it didn't — high_by_deadline was only $59,250.
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Willy Woo says Bitcoin will break $100,000 in the next bull run, with Q1 2022 looking strong.
“I am no doubt that we're going to break 100,000 in the next run. There's so much, like, coins scooped up off the market by long-term holders that have held for more than five months. And so it's really setting up really nicely for another bull run. I'm not sure how long that's going to go, but, like, definitely multiple months from now. First quarter looks really good. May run into second quarter, I'm not sure.”
BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2022-06-30 horizon; never reached $100,000.
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Bitcoin will not follow the historical 4-year halving cycle with a sharp peak and prolonged bear market; instead, the 2020-2021 bull run is structurally different and will not produce the typical cycle top.
“There's not a cycle in my reckoning. I don't think we're going to top and we're going to have another four year revolution where we have like a one year bear market. It's not looking like that at all.”
Said no cycle top / no one-year bear; 2022 delivered exactly that, BTC falling from $69k to $15,460 (low_by_deadline 15,460).
- ✓
Willy Woo expects Bitcoin to consolidate in the $30k–$60k range once supply shock fundamentals are respected, and projects a quick move from $42k to $50k once that level is broken.
“current supply shock we deserve to be in the 30 60 000 range um once we break 42 um i mean that's the long-term sort of line in the sand of the channel we've been playing at um and it's just really just a big gap from there to 50 40 42 to 50 is just a gap so if we break 42 um it's not going to be much time to get to 50”
After breaking $42k on 2021-07-30, BTC moved quickly to ~$50k+ by August and traded within the called $30k–$60k consolidation range.
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Willy Woo predicts this bull cycle will extend past end of 2021 without a full-blown bear market like prior cycles, leaning toward an extended cycle theory.
“i'm beginning to think i think i talked about this last time i'm beginning to think this is not going to happen i'll be i'm actually siding towards this being um like unlike anything i think we'll go past the end of this year um and fair amount of likelihood that it won't come into a full-blown bear market like we saw in the prior cycles”
Bet on extended cycle with no full-blown bear; instead BTC topped ~$69k Nov 2021 then crashed through 2022 to $15,460 — a classic bear market.
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Willy Woo stated the bull market is not over and BTC is going above $100,000–$200,000 this cycle, with $300,000 possible but less certain.
“it's going above 100,000, 200, it's looking confident. It would need to go up very quickly for us to reach above 300. So, are you, because last time we spoke, I think you said we were looking perhaps at 300 at the top. Yeah, we were on trajectory.”
Predicted $100k–$200k 'this cycle'; the 2021 cycle topped at ~$69,000 and never reached $100k (the $126,296 came in the later 2024-25 cycle).
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Willy Woo's on-chain model points to a cycle top around $300K, and he believes the market will reach that level.
“you've gone from $250,000 to $300,000. It looks like it'll beat it... [Willy:] But I think so.”
BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $300,000.
- ✓
Bitcoin is at or within 48 hours of its local bottom around $51K, and is likely to resume its upward trend.
“I think uh we're at the bottom now... I'm pretty confident war within I think this is the bottom if if it's not within 48 hours of the bottom and so yeah um i'm i'm stacking up my long positions right now”
Local bottom call near 2021-03-31: BTC held (low $54,900) and resumed upward, rallying toward ~$64k in April — bottom was in as predicted.
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Bitcoin's cycle top model has moved up to $300K for this bull cycle.
“you've looking at them uh like the macro um cycle you've raised your top from 250 to 300 right um yeah yeah it's it's gone up i mean i i don't uh i have a model and the model spits out this number and the model keeps moving”
BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $300,000.
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We are not yet halfway through the 2021 main bull phase, implying the peak is still ahead.
“they're not selling down yet so if that holds true this time yet to see um then yeah we're not halfway yet which kind of makes sense same first quarter of the the bull the bull year”
Said peak still ahead on 2021-03-29; BTC went on to make higher highs to $69,000 by Nov 2021 within the window — more upside followed.
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Willy Woo asserted that only a black swan event could push Bitcoin price below the ~$29,000 daily-close floor established during the January 2021 consolidation.
“It would take a black swan to push the price below essentially what we bottomed out at in the $29,000 range on a daily close. It would really take something extreme.”
BTC dipped to $28,800 in [2021-01-31..2022-01-28] — a minor break (within 0.7%) of the $29,000 floor.
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Top Cap / on-chain models suggest Bitcoin could reach roughly $200,000-$300,000 by year's end (2021), with a base-case top-cap target near $95,000.
“Willy Woo: How Bitcoin Reaches up to $300,000 by End of Year — top cap model suggests Bitcoin could reach approximately $95,000 by year-end, with potential for $200,000-$300,000 by year's end under accelerated trend conditions.”
BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000.
Open (8)
- ⏳
On-chain models (CVDD floor ~$45,500) signal a Bitcoin bottom forming between $46,000 and $54,000 for the current drawdown.
“on-chain models are signaling Bitcoin bottom between $46,000 and $54,000”
Bottom band $46K-$54K; BTC's low is only $57,718 (2026-07-01, above the band) and the drawdown is unresolved, near-term window open.
- ⏳
Updated cycle price target: Bitcoin can surge to the $140,000-$160,000 range during this/the next cycle (a revision down from his prior $250k-$300k call).
“analyst Willy Woo stated that Bitcoin can surge to the $140,000-$160,000 range during the next cycle”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-09-24); 2028-03-24 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin's market cap rises from ~$1 trillion to $100 trillion or more as it flips gold and fiat (long-term, no deadline).
“and everyone will market Bitcoin. And so I think in terms of Bitcoin going from $1 trillion to $100 or more that we all think about, that's the turning point. So the industry's matured, the infrastructure's matured, after FTX. Exchanges always wanted to hold the coins.”
$100T market cap flipping gold and fiat is explicitly long-term with no deadline.
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Bitcoin's total network value goes from ~$1 trillion to $100 trillion or more as it flips gold and fiat; that transition is the turning point.
“Bitcoin going from $1 trillion to $100 or more, that's the turning point. Bitcoin needs capital. If it's going to flip gold and it's going to flip fiat, actually that's what we're really talking about is ending fiat.”
Same $1T->$100T flip-gold-and-fiat thesis, no deadline; transition has not occurred.
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Bitcoin's ultimate-price lower bound is about $700,000, assuming a sensible 3% allocation of global wealth assets into BTC (upper theoretical bound $24m if BTC captured all $500T of global wealth).
“If we assume 3% as a sensible allocation ... then the lower bound of valuation is $700,000 Price target range”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-08-01); 2028-08-01 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
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BTC at $1m will happen easily in the next 10 years.
“What a time to be alive. BTC at $1m will happen easily in the next 10 years.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-05-10); 2034-05-10 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
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We'll probably never see Bitcoin going below $30k again if this on-chain pattern holds true.
“We'll probably never see [bitcoin] going below $30k again if this onchain pattern holds true”
BTC's low was $35,633, held at/above $30,000 (through 2026-07-06).
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Bitcoin could still achieve 100x to 1000x returns from current levels as it approaches monetary saturation.
“Bitcoin is not going to do a 10,000 X from here. Other than Bitcoin, fiat going to infinity in terms of money printing. It's not. In terms of real returns of things you can buy, maybe in a gold based return. It's not going to do another 10,000 X. We might get 100 X, maybe 1,000 X.”
100x-1000x ($4.5M-$45M) from ~$45K is a multi-decade call; 60-month horizon (to 2026-09) not elapsed, realized peak only $126,296.