Will Clemente
Resolved (7)
- ✓
Bitcoin has a strong chance of hitting six figures ($100k+) sometime between Q4 2024 and Q1 2025.
“the price of Bitcoin could reach six figures sometime between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025”
BTC traded as high as $109,358 in [2023-05-10..2025-03-31], reaching the $100,000 target.
- ✓
The market has bottomed on a multi-year view; major price appreciation over the next two years.
“the market has bottomed on a multi-year view”
Called a multi-year bottom at $27,624 on 2023-05-10; BTC rose to $126,296 over the next two years — major appreciation realized.
- ✗
2025 target of $180K for Bitcoin (framed as a favorable risk/reward at mid-2022 prices).
“a July 2022 tweet showing a "$180K" 2025 target”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $180,000.
- ✗
Bitcoin is very close to a multi-generational galactical pico-bottom where I plan to allocate all of my dry powder; great time to DCA heavily.
“Bitcoin is very close to a multi-generational galactical pico-bottom where I plan to allocate all of my dry powder for my grandchildren's grandchildren”
Called 'very close to a multi-generational pico-bottom' at $30,042 on 2022-05-14; BTC subsequently nearly halved to $15,460 — not close to the bottom.
- ✓
Bitcoin is below the short-term holder cost basis (~$53,000). Until this is reclaimed, not bullish. Happy to flip bullish if reclaimed.
“Bitcoin is below the short-term holder cost basis, which currently sits at $53,000…Until this is reclaimed, not bullish.”
At $50,090 said not bullish below $53k STH cost basis; BTC fell to $15,460 thereafter — the bearish stance was vindicated.
- ✗
Bitcoin is just now entering the main phase of the bull market (implying substantial further upside ahead).
“Bitcoin (BTC) is just now entering the main phase of the bull market”
Claimed 'just now entering main phase of bull market' at $64,400 on 2021-11-13 — that was the cycle top; BTC then crashed to $15,460, no main phase ahead.
- ✓
This wave of Bitcoin supply shock has the most momentum of any in recent history. We're going much higher over the coming months.
“This wave of Bitcoin supply shock has the most momentum of any in recent history. We're going much higher over the coming months.”
At $48,840 on 2021-09-01 said going much higher over coming months; BTC rallied to ~$69k by Nov 2021 within that window.