Vinny Lingham
Resolved (13)
- ◐
If Bitcoin breaks below $60,000 on this retracement, expect significantly more downside.
“If Bitcoin dips below $60k on this retrace, look out below…”
BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-06-18..2026-07-06] — a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor.
- ✓
Bitcoin will retest $60k after the $72k bounce, which he views as a dead cat bounce.
“$72k was a dead cat bounce. Now we retest $60k…”
BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-02-24..2026-07-06], reaching the $60,000 downside target.
- ◐
Bitcoin critical levels right now: $64k - we lose that and we retest $60k very quickly but there is still hope for a bounce. $60k - this is the most critical support level of this cycle. A sharp V-shaped bounce here forms a double bottom. If we lose $60k, violent cascading liquidations ensue and you can kiss any recovery goodbye, at least until the next halving approaches; you'll probably see a bunch of treasury companies for both BTC and ETH blow up (a 2022-type blow up).
“If we lose $60k, violent cascading liquidations ensue, and you can kiss any recovery goodbye, at least until the next halving approaches”
$60k support held and produced the hoped-for bounce (to $82,814 from $64,626), but $60k was later lost, dropping BTC to $58,161 — both the bounce and the eventual breakdown he warned of occurred.
- ◐
The $60k–$72k range was a dead cat bounce implying further downside below $60k ahead.
“$60-72k was a 20% bounce (dead cat imho), but maybe it's different this time…”
BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-02-14..2026-07-06] — a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor.
- ✓
When asked if Bitcoin had bottomed in the Feb 2026 drawdown: 'I don't think that we've seen the end of the pain' / 'Do I think Bitcoin's bottomed? Absolutely not.'
“I don't think that we've seen the end of the pain”
Called more pain / not bottomed at $66,208 on 2026-02-12; BTC fell further to $58,000 low and sits at $58,161 — the predicted continued decline played out.
- ✓
Bitcoin is officially in a bear market cycle and the current bounce is a dead cat bounce with lower prices ahead.
“I have high conviction that this is a dead cat bounce, and we're officially in a Bitcoin bear market cycle. Would love to hear thoughts from @ZeroHedge_ @CalebFranzen”
Called dead-cat bounce / bear cycle with lower prices at $70,528; BTC dropped to $58,000 low and is at $58,161 now — meaningfully lower as predicted.
- ✓
Bitcoin will drop below $75k in 2026 (though it might recover afterward).
“My predictions for 2026: Stronger dollar (vs DXY and/or Yen) Gold > $7500 Silver > $100 Bitcoin to drop below $75k (might recover) MSTR < $120 Republicans to win mid-terms CPI hits 3% SpaceX to IPO and hit > $2trn market cap”
BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2025-12-22..2026-07-06], reaching the $75,000 downside target.
- ✓
With $92k lost, Bitcoin will retest the local low at $82k.
“I guess it couldn’t hold $92k. Now it looks like Bitcoin will retest the local low at $82k…”
BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2025-12-01..2026-07-06], reaching the $82,000 downside target.
- ✓
The bull market keeps going up until Michael Saylor can no longer raise cash to buy Bitcoin.
“This bull market only ends when Michael Saylor stops being able to raise cash… until then it’s up and up. Don’t get shaken out.”
BTC kept rising from $114,216 (2025-08-03) to the $126,296 ATH (2025-10-06) before the cycle turned — consistent with the stated mechanism.
- ✗
Expects a Bitcoin blow-off top at $180k around end of September or early October 2025.
“I’m feeling like we’ll see a Bitcoin blow off top at $180k around the end of September/early October… I also do realize that by tweeting this, I’m changing the timeline 😆”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-10-15 horizon; never reached $180,000.
- ✓
Bullish on Bitcoin (rising prices) for as long as MSTR trades above $300 and well over NAV, letting Saylor keep buying.
“As long as MSTR is sitting above $300, Saylor will continue to tap the ATM, sell stock and buy Bitcoin, supporting the price. This means less BTC floating around and rising prices. I’m bullish on Bitcoin until the market reprices MSTR stock closer to NAV. Risk on!”
BTC rose from $102,800 (2025-05-12) to the $126,296 ATH (2025-10-06) while the MSTR premium persisted — directionally correct.
- ✗
Bitcoin could reach $120,000 by the end of the year if Trump wins the election; if he loses, it might tank.
“Yes, if Trump wins, Bitcoin could rise. If he loses, it might tank.”
BTC's high was only $108,389 through the 2024-12-31 horizon; never reached $120,000.
- ✗
If $30K continues to hold, we'll likely break $100K bitcoin this year (2021).
“If $30K continues to hold, we'll likely break $100K bitcoin this year”
BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000.