Tyler Winklevoss
Resolved (2)
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'It's still very much the bottom of the first inning' — directional/regime call that Bitcoin's bull run is only just beginning, with enormous upside ahead.
“It's still very much the bottom of the first inning, because we see bitcoin trading at $1 million a Bitcoin, if it disrupts gold.”
Called 'bottom of the first inning' at $116,106; BTC peaked at $126,296 then crashed ~54% to $58,161 — the run topped out, not just beginning.
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Tweeted '30k bitcoin by the end of the weekend?' — an upside directional call that BTC would reach $30,000 by the end of that weekend (made when BTC was ~$26,500 amid March 2023 banking turmoil).
“30k bitcoin by the end of the weekend? — Tyler Winklevoss (@tyler) March 17, 2023”
Asked '$30k by end of weekend?' from $27,454; high by 2023-03-19 deadline was only $28,478 — never reached $30k.
Open (2)
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Bitcoin will trade at $1 million a coin if it disrupts gold; 'easily a 10x from here' (BTC ~$115k at the time), framed as the next ~decade.
“It's still very much the bottom of the first inning, because we see bitcoin trading at $1 million a Bitcoin, if it disrupts gold. ... We think there's easily a 10x from here. It's still really early. And I think we'll be sitting here 10 years from now and looking back and saying, 'Wow, today was really early.'”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-09-12); 2035-09-12 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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Bitcoin will reach $500,000 within the decade if it disrupts gold and captures gold's ~$10-11 trillion market cap (21M supply / gold market cap => ~$500k per BTC).
“If you do the maths on 21 million in the supply of Bitcoin, the market cap of gold, let us say it is $10 trillion, maybe it is $11 [trillion], somewhere in that ballpark, that puts one Bitcoin – if it disrupts gold, and gets that market cap – at $500,000. ... When we wrote a piece on the value that predicted it being $500,000 Bitcoin, we said within the decade. Is that in three years from now or nine years? The timing part is hard.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-06-07); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.