Tuur Demeester
Resolved (8)
- ✓
Tuur Demeester believes this Bitcoin bull market has significantly more upside remaining and disagrees with the consensus view that $100k was the cycle top.
“I don't think so. I haven't seen a mania. Like it just, my gut was like, I think there's a lot more here. So it was a great motivation to dig in again and actually look at the data and see what comes out.”
Made above $100k at $111,756; BTC then rose to $126,296, so $100k was not the cycle top — more upside materialized as claimed.
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The current Bitcoin bull market will not follow the historical four-year cycle and will instead extend by roughly another year to a year and a half, producing a longer cycle.
“are gobbling up the coins as soon as they look a little cheaper. And so to me, that means that there's probably going to be a longer cycle. That's why I'm so bullish in the report saying like, hey, we could tack on another entire year or even a year and a half to this bull market. I think that's a big question on everybody's mind. Is this different?”
Predicted a longer cycle extending the bull ~1-1.5 yrs; instead BTC topped ~$126,296 (Oct 2025) and crashed ~54% to $58,161 by mid-2026 — the bull ended early rather than extending.
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Bitcoin is in a longer cycle with a top expected sometime between January and September 2026.
“using i.a. blockchain analysis, I suggest a longer bitcoin cycle with a top sometime between January & September 2026.”
Predicted top between Jan-Sep 2026; the actual peak ($126,296) occurred ~Oct 2025 before the window, and BTC was deep in drawdown ($58,161) by mid-2026.
- ◐
Combined bottom-up and top-down demand is a recipe for the most epic Bitcoin melt-up.
“Bottom up + Top down 👉 recipe for the most epic ₿ melt-up”
BTC rose ~35% from $93,741 (2025-04-23) to the $126,296 ATH (2025-10-06) — a solid advance but short of the claimed 'most epic melt-up.'
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Tuur Demeester predicts Bitcoin is entering a massive bull market that will move very fast and feel scary at times.
“I still think this is going to be a massive bull market. It's going to set your hair on fire. I think it's going to be kind of scary at times how fast this is going to move.”
From $71,121 BTC ran to $126,296 (1.78x) — a massive, fast bull move as predicted, later followed by a 'scary' crash.
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The traditional Bitcoin four-year halving cycle is going to be gone, due to institutional adoption (ETFs), nation-state buying, and the breakdown of bonds as an alternative.
“I think it's important to really consider the idea of that four year cycle. It's going to be gone...”
Claimed the four-year halving cycle 'is going to be gone'; price action since (April-2024 halving, peak $126,296 in late 2025 then decline to $58,161) traced a textbook four-year-cycle top-and-fade, so the cycle did not disappear.
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Bitcoin's bull market is still early and significant 20–30% corrections are coming before the cycle top.
“You have these like big 20%, 30% corrections. I think those are coming. But it's very encouraging to me that the pullbacks have been so light, so superficial. It's telling me this is still very early in the bull market.”
From $46,343 BTC rallied 2.7x to $126,296 with corrections along the way — 'still very early' and 'big corrections coming' both played out.
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Bitcoin will trade roughly $22k-$42k until a new multi-year bull market pushes it 'well north of $120k' as the endgame for this cycle.
“for bitcoin to trade in a range of $22k to $42k, until a new multi-year bull market pushes it well north of $120k.”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2023-12-15..2026-06-15], reaching the $120,000 target.
Open (4)
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Bitcoin is mid-cycle in one of the most significant bull runs in its history, with a path toward 4-10x appreciation implying price targets north of $500,000 this cycle.
“We think this is the mid-cycle in what could become one of the most significant bull runs in bitcoin's history. From its current range, we believe there is still a path toward a 4-10x value appreciation, which would imply bitcoin price targets north of $500,000.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-08-10); 2028-02-10 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
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In a way the Bitcoin bull market hasn't even started yet; a decisive break above all-time-high vs gold opens a path toward ~10 kg of gold (~$945,000 then), over 10x from the ~$83,300 spot price.
“In a way, the bitcoin bull market hasn't even started yet”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-03-13); 2027-09-13 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
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Gold parity will act as a magnet for Bitcoin; investors will consider ~$800,000-$1,000,000 the main BTC price target during this bull market.
“investors will consider ~$800,000 - $1 million to be the main Bitcoin price target during the bull market; wherever BTC's price tops out, 'eyes will water'.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-11-10); 2027-05-10 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
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Targeting $200k-$600k Bitcoin by 2026, fueled by trillions in global bailouts/stimulus (lower bound of the range modeled as the floor target by end-2026).
“In '21 bitcoin topped at $69k. I'm targeting $200-$600k by 2026. Fueled by $ trillions in global bailouts/stimulus.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-02-12); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.