Truth Block
Resolved (1)
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Truth Block (host) personally expects Bitcoin to grind sideways for a while and would not be surprised if price revisits the $50,000s.
“I think we grind around here for a while, and it wouldn't shock me if we revisit the 50s. The 200-week moving average, which has marked basically every bottom, is sitting right around $61,700.”
Expected sideways grind and would not be surprised by a revisit of the $50,000s; from $63,806 BTC fell into the $50,000s ($58,161 current, low since $58,000), fulfilling the revisit-the-50s call.
Open (6)
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Bitcoin has another year to year-and-a-half before it makes a real run back toward its highs.
“I think yes, it's a bubble, but it's got another year, year and a half to go... And Bitcoin's own cycle points to that same stretch before it makes a real run back towards the highs.”
Resolves TRUE if BTC begins a real move back toward its ~$126k highs roughly 12-18 months out (late 2027 to mid-2028); a forward timing call on BTC's next run.
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Host Hurley expects one more shakeout then a slow grind back toward six figures for Bitcoin, with 2027 setting up like pre-bull-run years.
“We could get one more shakeout in a turn late this summer. Then a slow grind back towards six figures. And 2027 starts to rhyme with the setup years before every big run.”
Predicts one more shakeout then a slow grind back toward six figures with 2027 setting up like pre-bull years; window runs to 2027 and outcome is undetermined — BTC at $58,161, no grind back to six figures yet.
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Host Hurley (Truth Block) believes Bitcoin will not fall to $40,000 and is at or very near a bottom in the current range.
“My read and my gut, which is not financial advice, is I don't think we're going to 40k... everything I'm looking at says we're at or very near a bottom right here.”
BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $40,000 (through 2026-07-01).
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Hurley reiterates that $1 million per Bitcoin is where the math and physics point, not merely a dream.
“this is why $1 million per Bitcoin isn't a dream. It's where the math and physics point.”
Not reached yet (high $81,650 since 2026-05-15); 2031-05-15 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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Hurley (Truth Block) argues that $1 million per Bitcoin is inevitable, based on the Bitcoin power law.
“the reason $1 million per coin is inevitable. Today, I give you the clearest explanation of the Bitcoin power law that exists on this side of the internet, and once you see it, you will never look at the price the same way again.”
Not reached yet (high $81,650 since 2026-05-15); 2032-05-15 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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Bitcoin will go higher once real rates flip negative under the new Fed chair because that is the only macro regime Bitcoin has ever rallied in.
“if his decision is, I'm betting on AI and I am not going to raise rates, even though inflation is above three-month bills, that is the serious point in time where I think Bitcoin is going to go higher”
Conditional on real rates flipping negative under the new Fed chair, then BTC goes higher; the macro trigger condition is not stated to have occurred and there is no deadline — undetermined, BTC has fallen from $76,306 to $58,161.