Tone Vays
Resolved (11)
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On Jan 7, 2025, Vays flipped bullish and announced he was back to fully long in Bitcoin at around $100,000 (after exiting longs Nov 22, 2024 at $97,800), expecting a move to $120,000 and beyond / a new all-time high.
“Now that the year is over, I am now back to fully long in Bitcoin as of this afternoon at a price of around $100,000. ... setting us up for a move to 120 and beyond.”
Jan 2025 flip to fully long ~$100k expecting $120k+/new ATH; BTC reached $126,296, exceeding $120k and setting a new all-time high as predicted.
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In February 2024 Vays said Bitcoin could rally to around $48,000 and turn into a 'super bull' situation on consecutive weekly closes above $43,500.
“He suggested Bitcoin could rally to $48,000 and climb higher if it stays above key resistance ... 'consecutive closings above $43,500' would signal a 'super bull' situation.”
Feb 2024 call for a rally to ~$48k and 'super bull' above $43,500; from $43,096 BTC closed above $43,500 and rallied through $48k to a high of $126,296.
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Vays said Bitcoin very likely bottomed back in November 2022 around the $15,000 range, and that once it breaks $25,000 resistance he becomes incredibly bullish to at least the $30,000-$35,000 area.
“Tone Vays says Bitcoin likely bottomed back in November 2022, when BTC hit the $15,000 price range. ... Once we break all this resistance, I become incredibly bullish on Bitcoin to at least this $30,000 to $35,000 area.”
Said Nov-2022 ~$15k was likely the bottom and he turns bullish above $25k toward $30-35k; the $15,460 low held as the cycle bottom and BTC broke $25k and blew past $30-35k to $126,296.
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In a March 2023 strategy session, Vays forecast Bitcoin could rally toward an initial target of $200,000 sometime in 2025.
“Looking at the trader's chart, it appears that he thinks Bitcoin could rally toward his initial target of $200,000 some time in 2025.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000.
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In the same March 2023 session, Vays said that if Bitcoin rallies higher it could reach $300,000 in late 2025 or early 2026.
“Should BTC go higher and rally to $300,000, Vays believes that can happen in late 2025 or early 2026.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-06-20 horizon; never reached $300,000.
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Bitcoin will not fall to $9,000 this bear market; downside is limited to roughly the $14k–16k area.
“we'll see if I'm wrong again because I don't think we're gonna go down to nine thousand I think the bull market is going to start sometime this quarter and we may fall down to 16.”
BTC's low was $15,460, held at/above $9,000 (through 2024-10-23).
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Vays maintained a bearish mid- to long-term stance, saying he would consider the market turned from mid- to long-term bearish if Bitcoin broke below $35,000, with a worst-case descending-triangle scenario delaying the next bull run into 2023.
“Vays maintained a bearish outlook, stating he would consider markets 'turned from mid- to long-term bearish' if Bitcoin broke below the $35,000 level ... a descending triangle formation (similar to 2018's pattern) that could delay the next bull run into 2023.”
Bearish-if-below-$35k call: BTC did break far below $35k (low $15,460 in Nov 2022) confirming the bearish leg, but the implied delay of the next bull run 'into 2023' was wrong — the bull run resumed strongly in 2023-2024 to $126,296; mixed outcome.
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Still fairly bullish on Bitcoin: an S&P 500 crash will not take Bitcoin down the way it did in March 2020 because the market is stronger (countries, Tesla and more corporates buying).
“a crash in the smp is not going to bitcoin like it did in 2020. bitcoin is a lot stronger we got countries buying bitcoin now mining them with volcanoes you got tesla buying bitcoin more corporates are going to do it so i mean bitcoin may still drop but i'm still fairly bullish”
Near-term bullish lean played out: BTC rose from $57,487 (2021-10-11) to the $69,000 ATH on 2021-11-10.
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Tone Vays believes Bitcoin will reach the $100,000 price level by the end of 2021 (a target he pinned to a tweet on May 30, 2021, and reiterated in August/October 2021).
“Tone Vays believes we are going to see BTC reach the $100,000 price level by the end of 2021.”
BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000.
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Unless Bitcoin reclaims roughly $47,500, it is going to continue down; he is looking for a move to about $38,000.
“the short term has crossed below that so if prices in back above um really needs about forty seven thousand five hundred um it's gonna continue down and i'm actually looking at like 38 000.”
BTC fell as low as $17,567 in [2021-10-03..2022-10-03], reaching the $38,000 downside target.
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After the pullback to ~$28k, it is now time for Bitcoin to break $100,000, either by end of 2021 or very early 2022.
“i didn't think we would pull back lower than 20 we pulled back to about 28. uh i was thinking 25 at the time we bounced a little bit earlier and now it's time to break that 100k either by end of year or very early next”
BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2022-01-31 horizon; never reached $100,000.
Open (1)
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Bitcoin's all-time high (~$126,296 from October 2025) will be breached in 2026; Bitcoin is going to recover.
“I do. I I I still think that Bitcoin's all-time highs will be breached in 2026 that we're in now. Uh I do think Bitcoin is going to recover.”
Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-02-07); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.