Timothy Peterson
Resolved (6)
- ✗
50% of the past 24 months have been positive, implying an 88% chance Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now (early 2027), with an average return of ~82% implying a price near $122,000.
“Peterson stated: "50% of the past 24 months have been positive. This implies a 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now." ... Bitcoin Price: Trading near $68,173 at publication time”
Predicted ~88% chance BTC higher 10 months out (early 2027) near $122,000; window still open to 2027-01-01 but price collapsed from $67,618 to $58,161 and the deadline-window high was only $82,814, never approaching $122k — but as the window has not elapsed this is undetermined.
- ✗
There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140,000 (end of October 2025); 43% chance it finishes below $136,000.
“"There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140K" (Peterson also noted a 43% chance it could finish below $136,000) ... based on "hundreds of simulations" using Bitcoin's daily price data since 2015”
BTC's high was only $125,226 through the 2025-10-31 horizon; never reached $140,000.
- ✓
There is a 50% or greater likelihood of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by early November (2025).
“a 50% or greater likelihood of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by early November of this year”
Predicted >=50% chance of a new ATH by early Nov 2025; BTC rose from $109,036 to a new ATH high of $126,296 well within the window (the prior ATH was ~$124k), so the predicted event occurred.
- ✗
There is at least a 50% chance Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high of $200,000 by June 2026 (requires ~7% average monthly return).
“there is at least a 50% chance that the Bitcoin price could reach a new all-time high of $200,000 by June 2026”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-06-30 horizon; never reached $200,000.
- ✗
Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high within 100 days, with $107,000 reachable in weeks and $135,000 within 100 days if the VIX stays low.
“he argued that "if the VIX stays low, it will create the necessary conditions for bitcoin to hit a new all-time high within the next 100 days." ... Bitcoin could reach $135,000 within 100 days (by approximately early August 2025) ... Post Date on X: May 1, 2025”
BTC's high was only $123,231 through the 2025-08-09 horizon; never reached $135,000.
- ✗
Lowest Price Forward metric now sets Bitcoin's floor at $69,000; there is a 95% chance Bitcoin will not fall below this level again.
“Peterson's "Lowest Price Forward" metric establishes a $69,000 price floor with "a 95% chance that Bitcoin will not fall below this level again."”
BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-03-04..2026-07-01], below the $69,000 floor.
Open (1)
- ⏳
The year is 2035. Bitcoin is at $1.5 million per coin (long-term Metcalfe's-Law projection).
“"The year is 2035. Bitcoin is at — and you can hold me to this — $1.5 million," Peterson stated in his prediction.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-01-08); 2035-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.