Steven McClurg
Resolved (13)
- ◐
2026 will be the 'bear leg' of crypto's four-year cycle; Bitcoin could fall as low as $50,000 in the summer before things turn around in the fall.
“"2026 I expect to be a bear leg to the four-year cycle," McClurg told CNBC, adding that he expects bitcoin to fall to as low as $50,000 in the summer before "things turn around in the fall."”
Bear-leg call correct and BTC reached low $58,000 (near his ~$50k summer target); but 'turn around in the fall' window (deadline 2026-09-30) not yet elapsed, no turnaround confirmed.
- ✓
Bitcoin has further to fall and will likely drop to the $60k-$65k area.
“I really wanted to be wrong on this, but here we are. Most talking heads are switching their views and admitting we are in bear market. My view: bitcoin has further to fall, probably to $60k-$65k area (ignoring macro factors), so don't try to catch falling knives. This is crypto”
From $75,661 predicted fall to $60k-$65k area; BTC traded down through that band to low $58,000 (current $58,161).
- ✓
Bitcoin will fall another 20-30% from current levels, with the bottom likely in summer or after midterm elections.
“She is unfortunately wrong here. expect another 20-30% lower from here. There is little investor liquidity and a lot of selling. Hopefully bottom in the summer, but likely after mid-terms.”
From $89,364 predicted another 20-30% lower (~$62,555-$71,491); BTC fell to low $58,000 / current $58,161, fulfilling and exceeding the drop.
- ✓
Bitcoin already peaked on October 6, 2025 at ~$126,200, and McClurg does not expect Bitcoin to post a new all-time high in 2026; he sees BTC falling another 20-30% over six to nine months to roughly $65,000-$77,000 before the end of the year.
“McClurg said he is bearish on Bitcoin for the rest of the current cycle. In his view, Bitcoin already peaked on October 6, 2025, when its price reached $126,200. ... He believes Bitcoin could fall another 20% to 30% over the next six to nine months before reaching a new trough ... between $65,000 and $77,000 before the end of the year. ... McClurg does not expect Bitcoin to post a new all-time high in 2026.”
Predicted no new ATH in 2026 and a fall to ~$65k-$77k; BTC dropped from $95,504 to $58,161 (low $58,000), high only $95,830 — passed through and below the target band, no new ATH.
- ◐
Crypto will continue a slow grind lower until at least the World Series (late October) or after midterm elections (November 2026).
“Crypto is in the bear market that no one wants to admit as a bear market. Slow grind lower until the World Series, or maybe even until after midterm elections.”
Slow grind lower from $95,504 to $58,161 has held through mid-2026 as predicted; but the timed window (World Series/midterms, deadline 2026-11-30) has not elapsed.
- ✓
On the debate over whether Bitcoin's four-year cycle is dead: 'I disagree. The four-year cycle remains intact.' He expects 2026 to be the bear leg of that cycle.
“I disagree. The four-year cycle remains intact.”
Predicted 2026 as the bear leg; BTC fell from $95,384 to $58,161 by mid-2026, clearly a bear year as called.
- ◐
I expect this bear phase to result in a 50-55% peak-to-trough decline. With BTC already down roughly 30%, a gradual decline over the next 6-9 months is reasonable.
“I expect this bear phase to result in a 50-55% peak-to-trough decline. With BTC already down roughly 30%, a gradual decline over the next 6-9 months is reasonable.”
Said ~30% already down + 50-55% total peak-to-trough decline. From $126,200 ATH to low $58,000 is ~54% — band met; but window (deadline 2026-10-13) still open, full bottom not yet confirmed.
- ✗
There's a greater than 50% chance Bitcoin reaches the $140,000 to $150,000 range this year (2025) before another bear market next year (2026).
“There's a greater than 50% chance that Bitcoin goes to the $140,000 to $150,000 range this year before we see another bear market next year.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $140,000.
- ✓
Bitcoin's price will surpass $100,000 by the end of next year (i.e., by end of 2024).
“As for the future, McClurg is bullish, predicting that Bitcoin's price will surpass $100,000 by the end of next year and agrees with Bernstein's forecast of reaching $150,000 by 2025.”
BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2023-12-15..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target.
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McClurg agrees with Bernstein's forecast of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by 2025 (an endorsed target, not his own primary call).
“predicting that Bitcoin's price will surpass $100,000 by the end of next year and agrees with Bernstein's forecast of reaching $150,000 by 2025.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000.
- ✓
Steven McClurg predicts Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by end of 2024, and calls a Bitcoin spot ETF approval a 'complete game changer' on top of that.
“I see us going to 100,000 by the end of next year. Easy. And that's ignoring Bitcoin spot ETF. That is a complete game changer.”
BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2023-11-20..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target.
- ✓
BTC may retrace to the $15K range before recovering, and once the Genesis situation resolves there will be no more leverage overhang driving further downside.
“I don't think that we're going to like 5,000 Bitcoin or 10,000 Bitcoin or maybe even 12. Maybe we'll go back down to 15. But we're probably going to be here for a while.”
BTC's low was $17,103, held at/above $15,000 (through 2023-10-09).
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Once the Genesis/DCG situation is resolved, Bitcoin's bear market will be over and the downside risk from leverage will be exhausted.
“Now we've got the Genesis situation. Genesis situation, I think, is going to be bigger than FTX. But once that's out, I think we're gone. I mean, that's it. There's no more leverage out there.”
Said once Genesis/DCG resolved the bear market is over and leverage downside exhausted; BTC ran from $17,178 to $126,296 ATH then crashed back to $58,161 — far from 'no more downside,' the call was off.