Steven McClurg
Resolved (28)
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2026 will be the 'bear leg' of crypto's four-year cycle; Bitcoin could fall as low as $50,000 in the summer before things turn around in the fall.
“"2026 I expect to be a bear leg to the four-year cycle," McClurg told CNBC, adding that he expects bitcoin to fall to as low as $50,000 in the summer before "things turn around in the fall."”
Bear-leg call correct and BTC reached low $58,000 (near his ~$50k summer target); but 'turn around in the fall' window (deadline 2026-09-30) not yet elapsed, no turnaround confirmed.
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Bitcoin has further to fall and will likely drop to the $60k-$65k area.
“I really wanted to be wrong on this, but here we are. Most talking heads are switching their views and admitting we are in bear market. My view: bitcoin has further to fall, probably to $60k-$65k area (ignoring macro factors), so don't try to catch falling knives. This is crypto”
From $75,661 predicted fall to $60k-$65k area; BTC traded down through that band to low $58,000 (current $58,161).
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Bitcoin will fall another 20-30% from current levels, with the bottom likely in summer or after midterm elections.
“She is unfortunately wrong here. expect another 20-30% lower from here. There is little investor liquidity and a lot of selling. Hopefully bottom in the summer, but likely after mid-terms.”
From $89,364 predicted another 20-30% lower (~$62,555-$71,491); BTC fell to low $58,000 / current $58,161, fulfilling and exceeding the drop.
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Bitcoin already peaked on October 6, 2025 at ~$126,200, and McClurg does not expect Bitcoin to post a new all-time high in 2026; he sees BTC falling another 20-30% over six to nine months to roughly $65,000-$77,000 before the end of the year.
“McClurg said he is bearish on Bitcoin for the rest of the current cycle. In his view, Bitcoin already peaked on October 6, 2025, when its price reached $126,200. ... He believes Bitcoin could fall another 20% to 30% over the next six to nine months before reaching a new trough ... between $65,000 and $77,000 before the end of the year. ... McClurg does not expect Bitcoin to post a new all-time high in 2026.”
Predicted no new ATH in 2026 and a fall to ~$65k-$77k; BTC dropped from $95,504 to $58,161 (low $58,000), high only $95,830 — passed through and below the target band, no new ATH.
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Crypto will continue a slow grind lower until at least the World Series (late October) or after midterm elections (November 2026).
“Crypto is in the bear market that no one wants to admit as a bear market. Slow grind lower until the World Series, or maybe even until after midterm elections.”
Slow grind lower from $95,504 to $58,161 has held through mid-2026 as predicted; but the timed window (World Series/midterms, deadline 2026-11-30) has not elapsed.
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On the debate over whether Bitcoin's four-year cycle is dead: 'I disagree. The four-year cycle remains intact.' He expects 2026 to be the bear leg of that cycle.
“I disagree. The four-year cycle remains intact.”
Predicted 2026 as the bear leg; BTC fell from $95,384 to $58,161 by mid-2026, clearly a bear year as called.
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I expect this bear phase to result in a 50-55% peak-to-trough decline. With BTC already down roughly 30%, a gradual decline over the next 6-9 months is reasonable.
“I expect this bear phase to result in a 50-55% peak-to-trough decline. With BTC already down roughly 30%, a gradual decline over the next 6-9 months is reasonable.”
Said ~30% already down + 50-55% total peak-to-trough decline. From $126,200 ATH to low $58,000 is ~54% — band met; but window (deadline 2026-10-13) still open, full bottom not yet confirmed.
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Bitcoin will never trade below $90,000 again after this dip.
“This is the last time you will be able to buy bitcoin under $90k”
BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-12-06..2026-07-06], below the $90,000 floor.
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There's a greater than 50% chance Bitcoin reaches the $140,000 to $150,000 range this year (2025) before another bear market next year (2026).
“There's a greater than 50% chance that Bitcoin goes to the $140,000 to $150,000 range this year before we see another bear market next year.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $140,000.
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Bitcoin is setting up to go parabolic.
“Bitcoin is setting up to go parabolic. Litecoin is setting up to go more parabolic, probably 2x what bitcoin does.”
BTC rose only +6% from $118,810 to the $126,296 ATH (2025-10-06) then crashed to $60,001 — right direction to a new high but no parabolic move.
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Bitcoin will continue rallying once Galaxy finishes selling 80,000 BTC for clients.
“Bitcoin will continue to rally once Galaxy is done dumping 80,000 BTC on the market for their clients.”
BTC continued up from $117,313 (2025-07-20) to the $126,296 ATH on 2025-10-06 before the cycle turned.
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Fed money printing to absorb new spending will expand M2 and push the Bitcoin price higher.
“$380B comes from new spending bills signed in the final weeks of Biden Admin. Fed will print money to buy those bonds to cover the cost of the new bills. More M2 = higher BTC price. This is why we have been bullish.”
BTC rose from $94,271 (2025-04-29) to the $126,296 ATH on 2025-10-06 — higher as called.
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Bitcoin should trade to $120k on current global M2 and $140k on expected 2025 M2.
“Gold prices precede money printing, bitcoin prices follow closely behind. Bitcoin should trade to $120k based on current global M2, $140k based on expected M2 for 2025”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $140,000.
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Bitcoin is nearing its 4-year cycle top and the cycle bottom is likely about 18 months away (mid-2026).
“State and country bitcoin reserves, while sound great now, will have longer term negative consequences if not executed properly. Bitcoin is nearing the top of its 4-year economic cycle. The bottom is likely 18 months from now, when most legislators who support this will be up for https://t.co/cizHBcuMRU”
Bottom timing landed well — low $57,718 on 2026-07-01 is squarely mid-2026 — but 'nearing top' was premature, the top came 9 months later at $126,296 (2025-10-06).
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After the market digests Powell's hawkish comments, Bitcoin and risk assets will rally, making the dip a buying opportunity.
“Knee-jerk reaction to Powell's "high inflation, slower pace of cuts" rhetoric is a sell-off. Bitcoin is down 4% on the day. Once the market processes the news that there is indeed higher inflation on the horizon, risk assets will rally. Buying opportunity.”
BTC recovered from the $99,940 Powell dip (2024-12-18) back above $100K to $109,358 by 2025-01-20 and on to new highs.
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Reaffirms his $120k year-end 2024 Bitcoin target despite the dip to $94k.
“I love people worried that BTC fell "all the way down to $94k" this week. 1) dip for ants 2) most of you were online shopping for McLarens a month ago when BTC crossed $75k 3) next week is options expiry and Fed meeting. Don't worry, back to normal after. My YE target still $120k”
BTC's high was only $108,389 through the 2024-12-31 horizon; never reached $120,000.
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Bitcoin's $100k level is incoming after breaking the psychological $80k barrier.
“The number 80 is a psychological market barrier that is quickly followed by 100. It is a rule in equities, and applies to bitcoin. 100k incoming”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2024-11-11..2025-11-11], reaching the $100,000 target.
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Bitcoin will be over $120k by the end of 2024.
“Bitcoin over $120k by year end”
BTC's high was only $108,389 through the 2024-12-31 horizon; never reached $120,000.
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Bitcoin's overnight decline is temporary; after the China stock rally is sold, money will flow into Bitcoin for the next leg up.
“The rally in Chinese stocks after PRC declaration of infinity money is a positive for all assets. Bitcoin decline overnight was temporary. After markets sell into china stock rally, money flows to bitcoin for next leg.”
From $63,301 (2024-09-30) BTC rallied to $108,389 by 2024-12-17 — the next leg up materialized.
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We are in the part of the cycle where the Bitcoin price increases in dollar terms as an inflation hedge.
“Inflation remains high and going higher. Increased Government Spending has offset effectiveness of higher rates and Fed balance sheet drawdowns. This is the part of the cycle where bitcoin price increases in dollar terms as an inflationary hedge.”
After chopping from $58,266 (2024-05-01), BTC rose to $108,389 by 2024-12-17 — the upward phase played out in dollar terms.
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Bitcoin's price will surpass $100,000 by the end of next year (i.e., by end of 2024).
“As for the future, McClurg is bullish, predicting that Bitcoin's price will surpass $100,000 by the end of next year and agrees with Bernstein's forecast of reaching $150,000 by 2025.”
BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2023-12-15..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target.
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McClurg agrees with Bernstein's forecast of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by 2025 (an endorsed target, not his own primary call).
“predicting that Bitcoin's price will surpass $100,000 by the end of next year and agrees with Bernstein's forecast of reaching $150,000 by 2025.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000.
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Steven McClurg predicts Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by end of 2024, and calls a Bitcoin spot ETF approval a 'complete game changer' on top of that.
“I see us going to 100,000 by the end of next year. Easy. And that's ignoring Bitcoin spot ETF. That is a complete game changer.”
BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2023-11-20..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target.
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The post-approval impact of a spot Bitcoin ETF on the market won't be as big as people think it's going to be.
“I don’t think it’s as big as people think it’s going to be.”
ETF impact was huge: BTC ran from $35,440 (2023-11-01) to $108,389 by 2024-12-17, not muted.
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Expects a decent Bitcoin rally through August 2023, coinciding with rising commodity prices.
“Im expecting a decent BTC rally through August, coinciding with commodity (esp Oil) prices rising during the same period.”
BTC fell in August 2023, from $29,316 (2023-07-28) to a $25,235 low on 2023-08-17 — no rally.
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Over the coming two quarters Bitcoin may bounce, but it will be hard for it to get a sustained rally in this environment.
“I, I don’t think it’s crazy that Bitcoin, you know, bounces up and does well. I think it’s going to be, it’s going to be hard in this environment for Bitcoin to get a sustained rally forward and I think that’s the general consensus”
Called a sustained rally hard, but BTC ran from $17,944 (2023-01-11) to $31,444 by 2023-06-23 — a strong sustained rally.
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BTC may retrace to the $15K range before recovering, and once the Genesis situation resolves there will be no more leverage overhang driving further downside.
“I don't think that we're going to like 5,000 Bitcoin or 10,000 Bitcoin or maybe even 12. Maybe we'll go back down to 15. But we're probably going to be here for a while.”
BTC's low was $17,103, held at/above $15,000 (through 2023-10-09).
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Once the Genesis/DCG situation is resolved, Bitcoin's bear market will be over and the downside risk from leverage will be exhausted.
“Now we've got the Genesis situation. Genesis situation, I think, is going to be bigger than FTX. But once that's out, I think we're gone. I mean, that's it. There's no more leverage out there.”
Said once Genesis/DCG resolved the bear market is over and leverage downside exhausted; BTC ran from $17,178 to $126,296 ATH then crashed back to $58,161 — far from 'no more downside,' the call was off.