Simply Bitcoin
Resolved (10)
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The Simply Bitcoin host believes the Bitcoin market bottom is near, based on the convergence of multiple factors including sentiment extremes and capital rotation explanations.
“It's probably all of this, which does make me feel that, you know, maybe famous last words, the bottom is near. Though, if we can gauge sentiment based on how mad everyone is and all of the infighting, it does feel like a market bottom is here.”
Called the bottom 'near/here' at $63,806 on 2026-06-04, but BTC fell ~9% to $58,000 and trades at $58,161, making lower lows.
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The Simply Bitcoin host believes Bitcoin is at the tail end of a bear market and holders will be happy once the price turns around, implying a forthcoming recovery.
“Right now is the time of accumulation. Yes, it's towards the tail end of a bear market, but you're going to be happy once the price turns around again.”
Predicted recovery from bear market; instead BTC fell from $73,513 to a $58,000 low and sits at $58,161 — no turnaround.
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The host agrees that the most hated Bitcoin rally in history is coming.
“the most hated beat Bitcoin rally in history is coming. I honestly, I kind of agree with that. I actually, I really hope that that is the case.”
Called for a rally; BTC barely ticked to $78,015 from $75,444 then crashed to $58,161 — no rally, the opposite.
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Host believes if Bitcoin channels between $60K and $80K for the next three months (through summer 2026), there is a very high probability the bottom is already in.
“I think that if we hold these price levels for the next three months or so, if we channel between the 80K and the 60K region, I think there's a very high probability that the bottom was in.”
BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-05-06..2026-07-01] — a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor.
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Host states that if Bitcoin holds above $60K through summer 2026, he does not see it dropping into the $50K–$40K range.
“If we can get through the summer and we're still above the 60K region, I don't see us going down into the 50s and the 40s and the high 30s.”
BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-05-06..2026-07-01] — a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor.
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Host says if Bitcoin does not see an aggressive dump in May 2026, the bear market is over.
“If we don't dump in May, I think we can all confirm our bias here and confirm that we are probably out of the woods. That we are out of a bear market. I'm going to put it out there.”
'Bear market over if no May dump'; BTC fell in May (low $72,364) and then crashed to $58,000 — thesis decisively falsified.
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Host says if Bitcoin breaks above $81K, it could be on for a slow grind higher and the October bottom thesis is over.
“If we break this 81K range, we could be on for a slow grind higher. And the whole Bitcoin's going to bottom in October idea is over.”
Broke above $81K (high $82,814) but then crashed to $58,161 — no slow grind higher and the October-bottom thesis was not invalidated.
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Host states Bitcoin is going to rally given the large capital flows currently entering the space.
“Well, I think Bitcoin is going to rally. I think there's a lot of capital flowing into Bitcoin right now.”
Predicted rally from $78,234; brief high $82,814 then crashed to $58,161 — no sustained rally.
- ✓
Bitcoin will attempt a breakout above $77K into the $80Ks, and there is no omega candle (large spike) expected within the next one to two months — just a bullish grind up.
“I'm not of the opinion that we are going to see an Omega candle anytime soon. And by that, I mean within the next month or two. I think what we're going to see is Bitcoin try to break out. If we do get a breakout above 77 into the 80Ks, obviously extremely bullish.”
BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-04-21..2026-07-01], reaching the $77,000 target.
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Bitcoin will break above $70K and that move will be persistent — ETF inflow data signals the shift is already underway.
“And that's why I believe that we're going to see a break above 70k, and it's going to be persistent.”
BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-04-13..2026-07-01], reaching the $70,000 downside target.
Open (14)
- ⏳
Luke (Simply Bitcoin host) predicts Bitcoin will reach $5.3 million by 2035 if 2% of global wealth flows into Bitcoin.
“Luke was saying 5.3 mil. You're like, yeah, I think it's going to get there by like 2035. I'm like, yo, you are, you're stupidly bullish. Like I was more of the idea, like maybe in my lifetime, we might get to those numbers. And Luke's like, no, dude, 10 years.”
Not reached yet (high $63,156 since 2026-06-24); 2035-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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The Simply Bitcoin host predicts that in one to three years people will look back at $60K as a generational buying opportunity, implying Bitcoin will be significantly higher.
“I'm sure in a year, two, three from now, we're going to be looking back at 60K and being like, I'm so glad that I didn't take my foot off the gas pedal and I continued to buy at that 60K bottom.”
1-3 year horizon (deadline 2029) is still open; $60K-as-generational-buy is undetermined with BTC currently at $58,161, below the $62,645 level when made.
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The EP 1523 host believes Bitcoin will eventually become the world reserve currency with a market cap in the hundreds of trillions, implying a price of $1 million or more per coin.
“I think it's going to be the world reserve currency at some point. The market cap is going to be in the hundreds of trillions of dollars in the future. Million dollar Bitcoin plus.”
Not reached yet (high $67,264 since 2026-06-10); 2031-06-10 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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The Simply Bitcoin host asserts that Bitcoin still has massive gains ahead of it and will take over the world.
“I still think Bitcoin has got a lot of fuel left in its tank. I still think Bitcoin is going to take over the world. I still think Bitcoin has massive gains ahead of it.”
Open-ended long-horizon thesis ('massive gains ahead', 'take over the world') with no deadline; window not elapsed, though price is down from $63,806 to $58,161 since.
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Host believes Bitcoin will continue its march toward $100K, barring another escalation in the Iran war.
“And this is why I do think, unforeseeing another eruption in the war in Iran, that Bitcoin will continue its march towards 100K.”
Not reached yet (high $82,066 since 2026-05-13); 2027-02-13 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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Host believes $40K Bitcoin is off the table given the 200-week moving average is now at $60K.
“But again, the 200-week moving average is now moving to 60K. So I think 40K is off the table.”
BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $40,000 (through 2026-07-01).
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The host predicts that after an initial stock-market-driven flush to around $65k, Bitcoin will decouple and ultimately rally to $800k once central banks face a monetary crisis.
“Round one, Bitcoin gets dragged down with the NASDAQ... Maybe you see 65k... Round two. Every central bank on earth simultaneously realizes their bonds are radioactive... And then we don't talk about 80k Bitcoin anymore. We talk about 800k Bitcoin.”
Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-27); 2031-04-27 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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When Kevin Warsh becomes Fed chair and monetary easing is fully unleashed, Bitcoin will experience a massive upward surge (the 'Omega Candle').
“And on the day that Kevin Warsh becomes the chair and the full power and strength of the money printer is unleashed, this will be Bitcoin. Probably the stonk market too if you're into that sort of thing. But it's going to be f***ing beautiful. The Omega Candle. The Prophecy.”
Claim commits to Bitcoin making a dramatic upward move when Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed chair and easing begins.
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Bitcoin will not go down to $40K — the current cycle floor is higher due to institutional buying pressure from Strategy.
“maybe it's not going to be just one billion dollars a day...weekly or daily that this demand supply economics just don't make sense in this world to say oh yeah we're gonna have another black swan leg down it's going to 40k...we aren't going down to 40k so maybe we're both right”
BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $40,000 (through 2026-07-01).
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The host believes Bitcoin will surge through $90K, $100K, and the prior $124K high and into the $150K–$200K zone sometime within the next six months.
“I am of the opinion that sometime in the next six months, Bitcoin is going to wake up and shock everybody. And we're going to very quickly move through this 90, through the 100, through the 124, whatever the last top was, and into kind of the 150 to 200 zone. I think that's coming.”
Target $150K–$200K by 2026-10-10; window still open, high by deadline only $82,814 so far — far below even $90K.
- ⏳
The host estimates the bear market likely has about six more months remaining before a definitive reversal can be confirmed.
“Though the standard heuristic here of, we probably have six more months of this bear market before we know for a fact whether we're going to get a reversal or anything. I think that still holds true.”
Claim commits to the bear market (price below ~$70K cycle range) persisting for approximately six more months from April 2026, i.e., through roughly October 2026, before a confirmed reversal.
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Host predicts Bitcoin will be at $10 million or more within a 20-30 year horizon.
“in a 20- to 30-year horizon, as the great Uncle Larry Stank mentioned earlier, Bitcoin is likely sitting at $10 million plus.”
Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-26); 2056-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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Host states that if institutions adopt a 2-5% Bitcoin allocation as discussed by Larry Fink, the price would reach $500,000-$700,000 per Bitcoin.
“Should we have a 2-percent allocation? Should we have a 5-percent allocation? If everybody adopted that conversation, it would be $500,000, $600,000, $700,000 per Bitcoin.”
Claim commits to Bitcoin reaching $500k-$700k if/when broad institutional 2-5% portfolio allocation occurs; resolves when Bitcoin price enters that range.
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Host personally endorses a $150,000 Bitcoin price target by end of year 2026.
“And they are maintaining their $150K target by end of year... I think end of year at minimum. Okay. We're going to lock it in.”
Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-25); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.