Scott Melker
Resolved (10)
- ✗
Scott argues Bitcoin is likely bottoming as it visits the 200-week MA for the 4th time in history.
“$BTC WEEKLY I have been consistently making the argument that Bitcoin is likely “bottoming.” This is based on multiple ideas, notably that price was visiting the 200 weekly MA for the 4th time in history. It has only traded below it for more than a week in 2022, after FTX”
Called Bitcoin 'likely bottoming' at $66,277 on 2026-06-15, but it then made lower lows to $58,000 and sits at $58,161, well below.
- ✗
Scott makes his technical case that Bitcoin has bottomed.
“My technical case for a Bitcoin bottom.”
Technical case for a bottom at $64,040 on 2026-06-03 failed — BTC subsequently fell to $58,000 and is at $58,161.
- ◐
The four-year cycle is largely broken; the current ~50% drawdown is a bull-market dip (like summer 2021), not an 85-90% bear-market collapse, and he has 'been buying quite a lot in the 60s' (April 2026, BTC in the low $60,000s).
“The cycle is largely broken. For those who believe we're about to get an 85 or 90% trip to the downside like previous bear markets, I would ask why we would get commensurate downside if we never got the proportional upside. ... I've been buying quite a lot in the 60s.”
His 'not 85-90% down' call holds (drawdown stayed ~54%, low $58,000), but the 'bull-market dip' recovery never came — price fell further from $67,292 to $58,161 with no rebound.
- ✗
$250K this year, totally possible — Bitcoin can reach $250,000 by end of 2025, citing declining volatility and growing institutional (pension fund/ETF) participation (reiterated mid-May 2025).
“250K this year, totally possible”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $250,000.
- ✓
Those $100,000 in 2024 and $250,000 in 2025 predictions are 'more realistic than ever' — Bitcoin to reach $100k by end of 2024 (April 2024, citing spot-ETF-driven institutional inflows).
“It's starting to seem like those $100,000 in 2024 and $250,000 predictions in 2025 are more realistic than ever.”
BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2024-04-08..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target.
- ✗
Those $100,000 in 2024 and $250,000 in 2025 predictions are 'more realistic than ever' — Bitcoin to reach $250k by end of 2025.
“It's starting to seem like those $100,000 in 2024 and $250,000 predictions in 2025 are more realistic than ever.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $250,000.
- ✓
Gun to my head, I believe that we are just at the start of a major bull run for both bitcoin and the broader crypto market (March 2024, with a warning of an eventual bubble that would pop).
“Gun to my head, I believe that we are just at the start of a major bull run for both bitcoin and the broader crypto market in general.”
Called the start of a major bull run at $69,032 in Mar 2024; BTC subsequently rallied to an ATH of $126,296.
- ✗
Crypto market outlook is 'up, up, and up'; 'I don't have fears of a crypto winter' (Feb 2022, following the 40-year-high CPI print).
“Up, up, and up ... I don't have fears of a crypto winter”
Said 'no fears of a crypto winter' at $43,528 in Feb 2022, but a full crypto winter followed — BTC crashed to $15,460.
- ✗
I would not be surprised at all to see bitcoin trading in six figures within the next six to 12 months (said mid-August 2021 with BTC ~$47,000).
“I would not be surprised at all to see bitcoin trading in six figures within the next six to 12 months, or ethereum even pushing towards $10,000 in that time.”
BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2022-08-14 horizon; never reached $100,000.
- ✗
Bitcoin will go to $200,000, $230,000, $235,000 (stated in a May 2021 Business Insider interview, framed as a current-cycle target alongside an ETH 'this cycle' call to ~$10,000).
“And I think that bitcoin will go to $200,000, $230,000, $235,000.”
BTC's high was only $73,836 through the 2024-05-15 horizon; never reached $200,000.
Open (1)
- ⏳
Scott calls the 200-week MA revisit the bottom, noting every cycle except 2022-23 this level marked the bottom.
“$BTC WEEKLY Bitcoin has officially revisited the 200 MA after breaking down from the 50 MA. It has risen from $55K when I first posted this to $62K. It has only traded below it for one stretch in history - June 2022 to March 2023. Every other cycle, this was the bottom.”
BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $55,000 (through 2026-07-01).