Saifedean Ammous
Resolved (3)
- ✓
Bitcoin is on 'very shaky ground' as a new price top nears and the bull market is coming to an end; warned that BTC could still crash 70-80% from the peak ('Bitcoin has done -70% and -80% before, and it can do it again').
“If your business model can't handle a -80% Bitcoin drawdown, rework your business model right now, because I think we're getting toward the very shaky ground of the top and the fall from it.”
Top did near and the bull ended: BTC peaked at $126,296 then fell to $58,161 (~54% drawdown) as warned; the specific -70/-80% was a conditional caveat, but the core 'top near, fall coming' thesis came true.
- ✓
Saifedean believes Bitcoin is near the cycle top and expects it to peak within 12-18 months of the April 2024 halving (i.e., by roughly October 2025).
“I think so. I mean, historically, this is usually the time when we get the top. Between one year and 18 months after the halving. But we're actually underperforming the last halving cycles.”
Cycle peaked at $126,296 within 2025 (high_by_deadline = $126,296), inside the 12-18 month post-halving window; price has since collapsed to $58,161, confirming that was the top.
- ✓
Bitcoin will NOT hit $1 million in 90 days; the dollar cannot hyperinflate that quickly. (Rejecting Balaji Srinivasan's bet that BTC would reach $1M within 90 days.)
“I feel dirty sounding bearish on bitcoin, but I do not think bitcoin will hit $1m in 90 days & and I do not think the dollar can possibly hyperinflate this quickly.”
Said BTC would NOT hit $1M within 90 days (by 2023-06-20); high_by_deadline was only 31,050 — far below $1M, so the rebuttal was correct.
Open (1)
- ⏳
Saifedean thinks there is a good chance Bitcoin goes over $200,000.
“No, we might. But I think there's a good chance we go over 200K. But I think we're getting to that point where it's going to be very volatile both ways.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-06-03); 2027-06-03 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.