Rekt Capital
Resolved (12)
- ✓
Bitcoin's deviation below the 200-week SMA will go even lower over time, implying further price decline below current ~$58k levels.
“#BTC Bitcoin has officially now deviated -6% below the 200-week SMA (orange) The 200-week SMA after all tends to act as an unreliable support at this moment in the market cycle More, history suggests that this deviation will go even lower over time $BTC #Bitcoin”
Predicted further decline below ~$58k; BTC fell from $59,704 (made) to $58,161 by 06-30, touching $58,000 low — declined as called.
- ✓
Bitcoin still has a bit more downside to go in this Bear Market, as its current -14% deviation below 2021 ATH has not yet matched the -22% deviation seen in the 2022 Bear Market.
“#BTC Bitcoin has deviated -14% below its 2021 old All Time Highs in this current 2026 Bear Market Still a little off the -22% deviation below 2017 old All Time Highs back in the 2022 Bear Market History suggests there's still time left and a bit more downside to go $BTC”
Predicted more downside to go; BTC fell from $64,223 (made) to $58,161 by 06-30 — further downside materialized.
- ◐
The current bounce will most likely demonstrate that $60,000 is a progressively weakening support for Bitcoin.
“#BTC This current bounce is most likely going to demonstrate how $60,000 is a progressively weakening support $BTC #Bitcoin”
BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-06-12..2026-07-01] — a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor.
- ✓
Any BTC rebound in the near term will be much weaker than the earlier 2026 relief rally and will demonstrate $60k as a progressively weakening support before eventual breakdown.
“Any rebound in the meantime will be much weaker than the relief rally we saw earlier this year to highlight $60k as a progressively weakening support before breakdown over time”
Predicted $60k breaks as weakening support; after rebounding to $67,264 BTC broke below $60k to a $58,000 low / $58,161 current — breakdown occurred.
- ✓
Bitcoin will only bounce briefly at the 50-Month EMA then break down and continue macro downside.
“$BTC Bitcoin has reached the 50-Month EMA (purple) And indeed price is now bouncing from here but this overall reaction is likely to be limited Over time, Bitcoin is likely to breakdown from this EMA and continue macro downside in this Bear Market #BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin”
Predicted limited bounce at 50-Month EMA then breakdown/macro downside; BTC bounced briefly to 67,416 then broke down to 58,000, now 58,161 vs 64,040 at made — downside continued as called.
- ✓
Bitcoin will see only a limited reaction at the 50-Month EMA before breaking down and continuing macro downside.
“$BTC Bitcoin is getting closer and closer to the 50-Month EMA (purple) There could be a limited reaction from there on contact but over time Bitcoin is likely to breakdown from this EMA and continue macro downside in this Bear Market #BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin”
Predicted limited reaction at EMA then breakdown/macro downside; from 66,658 BTC fell to 58,000 low and sits at 58,161 — net downside materialized as forecast.
- ✓
The $60,000 low was not the bear-market bottom, implying Bitcoin makes a new low below it.
“#BTC History suggests the low at $60,000 wasn't the Bear Market bottom $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin”
BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-05-15..2026-07-01], reaching the $60,000 downside target.
- ✓
Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains perfectly intact (new cycle began January 2025, bull-market peak in candle one in 2025, bear-market acceleration in early/Q2 2026); discussions of the cycle being 'dead' were premature.
“Rekt Capital asserts that Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains perfectly intact and is being followed quite perfectly... The new four-year cycle began in January 2025, with a bull market peak in candle one and a bear market acceleration expected in early 2026 or Q2 2026.”
Bear-market acceleration in early/Q2 2026 occurred as predicted — fell from $97,964 to $58,000 by the 2026-12-31 deadline.
- ✓
The ~$93,500 level is a Four-Year Cycle level; history suggests price should be able to find a way to a 12-month (year-end) close above ~$93,500 to finish 2025 green.
“The ~$93500 level happens to be a Four-Year Cycle level. History suggests price should be able to find a way to 12-month close above ~$93500 to finish 2025 green”
BTC traded as high as $94,641 in [2025-11-25..2025-12-31], reaching the $93,500 target.
- ✓
If history repeats and the next bull-market peak occurs 518-546 (~549) days after the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin could peak this cycle around September-October 2025.
“If history repeats and the next Bull Market peak occurs 518-546 days after the Halving… That would mean Bitcoin could peak in this cycle…”
Peak occurred in the Sep–Oct 2025 window — high by deadline $126,296, followed by lasting decline to $58,161.
- ✓
Bitcoin is in a Post-Halving Re-Accumulation phase ($60k-$70k range) and has only parabolic upside after this accumulation phase, with a cycle top likely between December 2024 and February 2025 (or, if accumulation extends, by September-October 2025).
“Bitcoin has only parabolic upside after the current accumulation phase”
Parabolic upside delivered (rose to $126,296 from $66,859) and top came within the extended Sep–Oct 2025 deadline (peak Oct 2025).
- ✗
Accounting for historical upside/downside volatility and diminishing returns, Bitcoin could rally to as far as $150,000-$170,000 in Candle 1 of the new four-year cycle (the 2021 bull market).
“Bitcoin could rally to as far as $150,000-$170,000 in Candle 1 ... followed by a Bear Market Candle 2, which historically tends to experience an average correction of -84,5%.”
BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000.
Open (13)
- ⏳
Bitcoin will close below the 50-Month EMA in June, bearish-retest it as resistance in July, and reject in August.
“#BTC With the new June Monthly Close just around the corner... It's becoming increasingly likely that Bitcoin will close below the 50-Month EMA and likely bearish retest it into new resistance in July and reject in August This cycle has repeated 2022 tendencies very closely”
July retest / August reject window (to 2026-08-31) has not elapsed as of 2026-06-30 — only the June close has occurred.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will experience a prolonged Summer relief rally, which will be one of the last major relief rallies before the Bear Market Bottom.
“At some point, Bitcoin will likely enjoy a prolonged Summer relief rally And it will be one of last major relief rallies in this Bear Cycle before a Bear Market Bottom is finally reached $BTC #BTC #Bitcoin”
Summer relief-rally window (to 2026-09-30) still open; high since made only $60,839 vs $60,003 spot — no rally yet but undetermined.
- ⏳
If Bitcoin's quarterly close falls below $59k, then both $59k and $62.4k will act as resistance in early Q3 2026.
“#BTC If Bitcoin Quarterly Closes below $59k (green) then both $59k and $62.4k could act as resistance in early Q3 Bitcoin is currently at $58.7k $BTC #Bitcoin”
Conditional resistance behavior at $59k/$62.4k is to be observed in early Q3; deadline 2026-09-30 not yet elapsed.
- ⏳
If the June monthly close is around $62k, July may produce a post-breakdown relief rally, but August will cancel July's gains and send Bitcoin lower.
“#BTC At this stage, if June Monthly Closes just like this at $62k then that would confirm the breakdown from the 50-Month EMA So it July turns into a green month, then that could see price turn the 50 EMA into new resistance Then August would cancel out July and send Bitcoin”
July relief rally / August reversal claim spans through 2026-08-31; July and August have not occurred yet.
- ⏳
If June closes red and confirms a loss of the 50-Month EMA as support, July will likely see a relief rally that turns the EMA into resistance.
“#BTC History suggests that whatever June does, July will do the opposite Therefore if June is red, July will likely be green So if June ends the month like this, it will confirm a loss of the 50-Month EMA as support And so July will likely relief rally to turn the EMA into”
June-red condition on track, but predicted July relief rally has a 2026-07-31 deadline and July hasn't occurred yet.
- ⏳
There is still time for BTC to deviate around -30% below the 200-week SMA, especially if the current rebound forms another Macro Lower High.
“#BTC At this moment, Bitcoin is rebounding from the 200-week SMA In past cycles however, #Bitcoin would deviate around -30% below the 200 SMA There's still time for this $BTC downside deviation to take place, especially if this rebound forms yet another Macro Lower High soon”
Calls for ~-30% deviation below 200-week SMA 'over time'; deep deviation not reached and open-ended window hasn't elapsed.
- ⏳
June 2026 will likely be a red month and July 2026 will likely be a green month for Bitcoin.
“#BTC June is probably going to be a red month July is probably going to be a green month $BTC #Bitcoin”
June red leg is on track ($63,538→$58,161), but July-green leg's window runs to 2026-07-31 and is undetermined.
- ⏳
Bitcoin has approximately 120 more days of bearish price action ahead before a meaningful recovery.
“#BTC Survive the next ~120 days of red To thrive in the 1000+ days of green from Bear Market Bottom into Bull Market Peak $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin”
~120 days of red runs to 2026-10-08; window still open.
- ⏳
Over the next approximately four months, BTC will keep declining as investors remain risk-off.
“Over the next ~4 months, investors will keep being Risk-Off & #BTC will keep declining $BTC #USDC #Bitcoin”
'Keep declining over ~4 months' runs to 2026-10-09; price is down so far ($61,686→$58,161) but the multi-month window hasn't elapsed.
- ⏳
Bitcoin's deviation below the 200-week SMA needs to reach between -14% and -31% to mark its absolute Bear Market bottom, implying further downside from the current -4.5% deviation.
“#BTC Bitcoin has only deviated -4.5% below the 200-week SMA (orange) Historically, Bitcoin has deviated anything between -14% to -31% below the 200-week SMA to find its absolute Bear Market Bottom $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin”
Calls for -14% to -31% deviation below 200-week SMA to mark the bottom; that deep band has not been reached and the open-ended bear-bottom window hasn't elapsed.
- ⏳
Over the next five months, Bitcoin may only have one or two more periods of Bearish Acceleration before reaching the final Bear Market bottom.
“#BTC Over these next 5 months or so, Bitcoin may only have 1 or max. 2 more periods of Bearish Acceleration before the final Bear Market bottom is”
5-month timing call for final bear bottom runs to 2026-11-06; window still open.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will bottom in 2027 and not reclaim $93,500 until a 2028 trend reversal.
“It’s 2026 Looks like it indeed is the year of the Bitcoin Bear Market 2027 will be the Bottoming Out year for #BTC And 2028 will be the Trend Reversal year where $93500 would be finally broken $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin”
Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-02-05); 2028-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
If BTC's 4-year cycle is 'broken,' it's probably just leveling up — i.e. the four-year cycle is not dead, only evolving.
“If BTC's 4-year cycle is 'broken,' it's probably just leveling up.”
Vague open-ended assertion ('cycle just leveling up') with no deadline/horizon and no price test — undetermined.