Rational Root
Resolved (12)
- ✗
Bitcoin is still following the four-year cycle and is forming a bear-market bottom; expects it to take a couple more months to bottom (possibly one more leg down) and then slowly grind back up into the hundreds. Holders should have patience for a couple of months and will be rewarded.
“And so I don't know if we'll get another leg down. But I do think we still have a couple of months to go before we really go back up again and go into the hundreds and so forth.”
Window to 2026-05-15 elapsed; never went 'into the hundreds' — high by deadline only $82,814 and price is now $58,161, below the $72,830 at the call (no bottom-and-grind-up materialized).
- ✓
More upside ahead beyond the 120K level; the move can continue higher rather than stopping at 120K.
“And for me also to believe that indeed this lag still has more upside. So you don't think we're going to stop here at 120K? How sustainable do you think this move is going to be? Yeah, I mean, we might have some short consolidations of a few days or even a week or whatever, but I still think there's going to be more. I think it can still continue to move up further.”
From $118,682 (2025-07-16) BTC pushed above 120K to $126,296, the additional upside beyond 120K he called for.
- ✗
The 100K zone (former resistance / short-term holder cost basis / ~$2T market cap) now becomes a support zone going forward.
“And so I think now this plateau, so for Bitcoin, again, that's like kind of the 100k zone, is now going to function as a support zone in the future.”
BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-07-16..2026-07-01], below the $100,000 floor.
- ✓
If the four-year cycle holds, there are roughly five to six months left to make a cycle peak (a top forming in late 2025 / around year-end).
“So they've all been kind of at the end of the year. And so that gives us more or less in the four-year cycle still, you know, five to six months time to make a cycle peak if we will stay within the four-year cycle.”
Cycle peak of $126,296 formed ~Oct 2025 (within the 5-6 month / year-end window) then declined to $80,525 by the 2026-01-16 deadline, matching the predicted late-2025 top.
- ✓
Short-Term Holder Supply uptrend signals a bull market continuation — a forward-looking call that the uptrend continues.
“Short-Term Holder Supply continues its uptrend, signaling a bull market continuation (chart from today's newsletter). #Bitcoin https://m.primal.net/OAFa.png ”
Called bull continuation at $104,734 (2025-01-25); uptrend extended to a new ATH of $126,296.
- ✓
Bull market in full force (with a new ATH on the daily close) — asserting the cycle's bull market is active and continuing.
“Bull market in full force! #Bitcoin ✅ Ross freed ✅ New ATH on daily close SBR 👀🚀 https://m.primal.net/NuFV.png ”
Called bull-in-force at $103,667 (2025-01-22); BTC went on to a new ATH of $126,296, confirming continuation.
- ✗
The Rational Root expects Bitcoin to exceed $140,000 this cycle (i.e., by end of the current 2024–2025 bull cycle).
“I still think we're going to see a continuation. And I expect at least prices above 140K this cycle. But, yeah, we'll see. We'll take 140. It would not be bad, right?”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $140,000.
- ✓
The Rational Root predicts the current Bitcoin cycle peak will occur near the end of 2025, consistent with the four-year cycle, though the ETF catalyst may pull the peak forward or produce a double top.
“the four-year cycle would imply a peak near the end of 2025. So but perhaps we're kind of shifting a little bit and the ETFs might have speed up things a little bit.”
Cycle peak occurred near end of 2025 — high by 2025-12-31 deadline $126,296 (Oct 2025), then sustained decline to $58,161.
- ✓
Rational Root predicts Bitcoin will reach between $100,000 and $1 million in the next cycle if historical patterns continue.
“if we keep on following the same pattern, Bitcoin should reach between $100,000 and a million in next cycle, you know, and possibly higher after that, you know, like so that is quite bullish.”
BTC traded into the $100k–$1M band — high by 2026 deadline $126,296.
- ✓
Rational Root says it seems impossible for Bitcoin not to go above $100,000 in the next cycle if the spiral chart pattern holds.
“it seems like it's kind of impossible to not go above a hundred thousand. If we follow the same pattern in, in, in this, in the spiral chart.”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2023-06-16..2026-07-01], reaching the $100,000 target.
- ✓
Rational Root expects Bitcoin to be around $40,000 at the time of the next halving (approximately April 2024).
“I put that at 40,000 because I, I think that's a reasonable price to, to make at, at the next halving.”
BTC traded as high as $73,836 in [2023-06-16..2024-04-28], reaching the $40,000 target.
- ✓
Based on the Bitcoin four-year spiral chart, the cycle low would likely occur around the end of 2022.
“usually at, at the south, which we are kind of approaching, which would mean the end of the year is where we would potentially make a low based on, on this chart.”
Cycle low landed end of 2022 — low by deadline $15,460 (Nov 2022), as predicted.
Open (5)
- ⏳
The current Bitcoin bear market will end in approximately four months (around October 2026).
“"I actually expect this bear market only to last four more months"”
Bear market 'ends ~Oct 2026' window not yet elapsed (as_of 2026-06-30); price still falling at $58,161, outcome undetermined.
- ⏳
Bitcoin is worth much more than 200K and will probably go into the millions.
“and Bitcoin is already heavily undervalued. In my opinion, Bitcoin is worth much more than 200K and probably will go into the millions. If you're a holler, have patience for a couple of months and that will be rewarded. The rational route, the big carrot, you are back.”
Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-15); 2026-12-15 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
The Rational Root believes Bitcoin will eventually reach $1 million.
“I believe Bitcoin is going to go eventually to a million dollars as well without the model. And so, you know, I'd rather look at it on a day-to-day basis with on-chain analysis and see where we're at in the cycle.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-07-05); 2029-07-05 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
The Rational Root predicts Bitcoin will eventually reach prices between $1 million and $10 million per coin, at which point it transitions to functioning as a global reserve currency superior to the dollar.
“I think we'll just get to prices from a million to 10 million at some point. And then Bitcoin is going to be such a big currency that it just becomes a better currency than the US dollar, obviously.”
$1M–$10M target has no deadline/horizon; high since made only $126,296, nowhere near band — window open, undetermined.
- ⏳
Rational Root predicts Bitcoin will likely not cross $1 million in the next cycle but possibly in the cycle after that.
“I actually don't think next cycle, we will necessarily cross the million mark, you know, like that would maybe be for the cycle after that.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-06-16); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.