Raoul Pal
Resolved (5)
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Pal said crypto's traditional 4-year cycle has stretched into a ~5-year cycle (debt maturity extended from 4 to 5 years), pushing the real Bitcoin peak to around Q2 2026 rather than 2025.
“the debt maturity was extended from four years to five years. This expanded the business cycle by one year ... should now peak in 2026 ... around the second quarter of next year.”
The peak ($126,296) came in Oct 2025, not Q2 2026; by the Q2-2026 deadline BTC was at $58,161, far below the ATH, so the predicted Q2-2026 peak did not occur.
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Citing the Global M2 money-supply correlation (with a ~3-month lag), Pal said Bitcoin could surpass $140,000 by July, suggesting roughly +28% upside from the level at the time.
“Raoul Pal Predicts $140,000+ Bitcoin by July, Says Key Metric Flashing Bullish Signal for BTC”
BTC's high was only $123,231 through the 2025-07-31 horizon; never reached $140,000.
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At Sui Basecamp, Pal presented a 'liquidity-driven supercycle' thesis: if the ISM Manufacturing Index reaches ~57, his models project Bitcoin could be fairly priced at $450,000 this cycle, potentially into Q1/Q2 of 2026.
“if the ISM levels reach 57, currently below 50, his internal models project that Bitcoin could touch $450,000 ... MUCH higher by Q1 2026”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-06-30 horizon; never reached $450,000.
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Pal argued the prolonged sub-50 business cycle, now starting to expand, has probably extended the crypto bull market into 2026 (framed as a working hypothesis, not a firm prediction).
“The business cycle is taking a long time below 50. It's starting to expand now. That has probably extended the cycle into 2026.”
Bull/high did carry to a new ATH $126,296 in Oct 2025, but by the 2026-06-30 deadline BTC had collapsed to $58,161 — the cycle turned rather than cleanly extending through 2026.
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Pal predicted this cycle would feature a 'violent upside' for Bitcoin, with prices well above $250,000, expecting the cycle to peak in late 2025 or early 2026.
“He predicts this cycle will feature a 'violent upside' for Bitcoin, with prices well above $250,000.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-06-30 horizon; never reached $250,000.
Open (1)
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In a YouTube discussion (posted with Anthony Pompliano), Pal outlined probabilistic scenarios: a 60% probability that Bitcoin hits $150,000, and a ~20% probability of a 'massive bubble' carrying Bitcoin as high as $250,000 (with a ~20% chance the peak comes faster than expected followed by a decline).
“60% probability that Bitcoin could hit $150,000 ... 20% possibility of Bitcoin undergoing a massive bubble ... potentially surging as high as $250,000”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-02-01); 2027-02-01 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.