Ran Neuner
Resolved (7)
- ✓
If Bitcoin breaks down from its current bear-flag pattern (and if Saylor's Strategy/STRC loses its ability to raise capital and buy BTC), it's going down to the $40,000s or $50,000s.
“It's going down to the $40ks or $50ks if it happens.”
From $76,976 on 2026-05-24 BTC fell into the $50,000s (low $58,000, current $58,161), hitting the predicted $50ks range.
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If the 4-year cycle holds, Bitcoin bottoms around October 2026 after drawing down to or below the 200-week MA near $57,000
“It’s clear that Bitcoin is in a bear market and has been since 10/10. Now the question is how long and how bad? If we follow the typical 4-year cycle , we are looking at 365 days to the bottom (October 2026) and a drawdown to or below the 200w MA. That’s now at $57000.”
BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-02-01..2026-07-06], reaching the $57,000 downside target (within 1.3% — near-miss counted).
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Bitcoin will rise to catch up with equities and metals that are all at all-time highs
“SP500 - All-Time High! Nasdaq- All-Time High! Gold - All-Time High! Silver - Ripping, All-Time High Platinum- All-Time High! Palladium All-Time High! Other world markets - All-Time High! I don’t see a world where Bitcoin doesn’t catch up!”
From $87,296 (Dec 26 2025) BTC fell ~27% to $63,599, moving away from (not catching up to) the ~$126k ATH; catch-up is now infeasible in any near-term horizon.
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Bitcoin will end 2025 above $100,000
“I have a hunch that Bitcoin will end the year above $100k. If I'm wrong , I'll just delete this tweet.”
BTC's high was only $92,791 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000.
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The four-year (halving) cycle was always dead; Bitcoin follows a liquidity cycle, not the halving. Global liquidity and PMI are the true drivers of price, not the four-year halving.
“Bitcoin's market cycles are dictated by its four-year halving events ... is based on only three data points and is misleading. Global liquidity and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) are the true drivers of Bitcoin's price movements.”
BTC still peaked ~Oct 2025 (~$126,296) then crashed — consistent with the traditional ~4-year cycle, so the 'cycle is dead / liquidity-only' thesis is only weakly supported.
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Bitcoin could finish 2025 between $100,000 and $120,000 if the market avoids another shock.
“$100,000 to $120,000 if the market avoids another shock”
BTC reached $94,641 by the 2025-12-31 horizon — within 5.4% of $100,000 but short.
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Bitcoin to $150,000 by 2025. (In the July 2024 CryptoGlobe/Kitco interview pegged the target more precisely: BTC could break above $74,000 within ~two months and reach $150,000 by Q1 2025, driven by political support and macro factors.)
“Bitcoin to $150,000 by 2025? Crypto Expert Ran Neuner's Bold Prediction Explained!”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000.
Open (3)
- ⏳
The crypto market is nearing a bottom, with a few more capitulation signals needed.
“We are nearing a bottom. We need a few more of these.”
Made 2026-06-27 at $59,935; only ~3 days elapsed (low $58,056, current $58,161 — slightly lower), too soon to confirm a bottom held.
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Bitcoin could fall as low as $50,000 if it fails to bounce from the current breakdown level.
“The bear flag just broke down! It's not good. Could go as low as $50k if we don't bounce soon. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a big war announcement after market close today. Be safe!”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-03-27); 2026-12-27 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
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2026 is going to be a bull market; this is a great time to be buying. (Said with BTC having crashed in Oct 2025; framed 2025 as a transition year of institutional control.)
“I think 2026 is going to be a bull market ... I think this is a great time to be buying.”
BTC fell from $89,345 to $63,599 through H1 2026 (no bull market yet), but the full-year 2026-12-31 window is open.