Plan C
Resolved (7)
- ✗
If the $61,336 low holds and Bitcoin can reclaim $70k, the odds of the bottom being in increase substantially.
“If this $61,336 low holds and Bitcoin can reclaim $70,000, the odds of the bottom”
Conditional bottom call failed: the $61,336 low did NOT hold (low_since_made $58,000) and BTC never reclaimed $70k (high_since_made only $67,264), now $58,161 — both conditions broke down.
- ✗
Bitcoin will follow the business cycle expansion soon, as ISM PMI has been above 50 for five straight months.
“The early expansionary cycle signs continue. ISM PMI > 50 for 5 straight months now. Bitcoin will follow soon.”
Predicted BTC would 'follow soon' to the upside; from $71,314 it peaked only at $73,979 then collapsed to $58,161 — fell rather than followed expansion higher.
- ✗
The supercycle/mid-cycle correction is materializing; the business cycle expansion phase is beginning, suggesting Bitcoin's next major upleg is near.
“The supercycle/mid-cycle correction theory I've been talking about for well over 2 years is beginning to materialize. The business cycle is showing signs of getting ready to start its expansion phase. We had a very healthy, fast 50% mid-cycle correction/capitulation.”
Called the correction over and next major upleg near; from $80,908 BTC barely ticked up to $82,814 then dropped to $58,161 (a further ~28% decline) — no upleg, deeper drawdown.
- ✓
The real statistical fair value for Bitcoin today is $101,000, not $130,000 or $118,000.
“The real statistical fair value for Bitcoin today is $101,000, not $130,000 or $118,000.”
Claimed fair value $101k (below $130k/$118k); from $68,432 made BTC fell to $58,161 current and never exceeded $82,814 — directionally bearish vs the higher figures was right, price stayed far below $118k-$130k.
- ◐
Bitcoin's 2026 low is already in; anyone waiting for $30k–$40k will be sidelined.
“The Bitcoin low for 2026 is in. Those calling for and waiting for $30,000 to $40,000 were wrong and will be sidelined unless they chase. As I said, the max drawdown I expected was 50-60%, not the 80-90% seen in past cycles. $60,000 was a gift (52% down from the ATH), and it”
BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-03-04..2026-07-01] — a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor.
- ✗
Bitcoin will never go below $70,000.
“Bitcoin will never go below $70,000.”
BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-11-09..2026-07-01], below the $70,000 floor.
- ✗
Jan 1, 2026 = $130k to $150k.
“Jan 1, 2026 = $130k to $150k.”
BTC's high was only $107,482 through the 2026-01-01 horizon; never reached $130,000.
Open (8)
- ⏳
Bitcoin is going through its first supercycle from $16k to $250k+, with the next cycle peak landing in the second half of 2027 to the first half of 2028.
“Bitcoin is about to go through its first supercycle: from $16,000 to $250,000+. The cycle began Nov 2022 at the $16,000 bear market low. The first peak was $126,000 and the mid-cycle low was $60,000. The next cycle peak will land in the second half of 2027 to the first half”
Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-05-04); 2028-06-30 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
Bitcoin going to $250k in 2026 is a small-chance possibility; $40k is near zero probability.
“Bitcoin has a better chance of going to $250,000 (small chance) in 2026 then $40,000 (near zero chance).”
Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-05-04); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
Once Bitcoin stabilizes above $80k, sideline buyers will push price toward $90k, then a reflexive surge carries it back to $100k.
“Once Bitcoin stabilizes over $80,000, many people on the sidelines are going to start questioning the 4-year cycle and whether the low is already in. Plenty will begin to buy back in, driving the price closer to $90,000, and then a reflexive surge takes us back to $100,000.”
Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-05-03); 2027-05-03 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will recover in 2026 with year-end price between $90k and $130k, and the true cycle peak will arrive in 2027.
“For anyone who thinks 2026 is preordained and predestined to be a bear market... Strategy is on pace to buy 60x more Bitcoin in 2026 than they did in 2022 (bear market). This time is different. Recovery in 2026. Year-end between $90k and $130k. True cycle peak in 2027.”
Year-end (2026-12-31) $90k-$130k range: window still open (as_of 2026-06-30); BTC has not reached the band yet (high_by_deadline $82,814) but the deadline has not elapsed.
- ⏳
The 2026 Bitcoin low is likely in the $50k–$63k zone and a revisit lower is not expected.
“Bitcoin: I have been saying for a while now that the max drawdown I expected to see was 50% to 60%, not the 80% to 90% from past cycles. From the all-time high, that would be... $50,000 to $63,000. We already reached that zone, and I would not be surprised if the 2026 low”
BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $50,000 (through 2026-07-01).
- ⏳
Assuming this Bitcoin cycle must be EXACTLY the same as the previous Bitcoin bull market could be one of the biggest financial mistakes of the decade.
“Assuming this Bitcoin cycle must be EXACTLY the same as the previous Bitcoin bull market could be one of the biggest financial mistakes of the decade.”
Open-ended meta-claim (no deadline) about cycle differing from the prior bull market; BTC's drop to $58,161 from $87,111 suggests divergence, but it's a commentary stance with no defined window to resolve definitively.
- ⏳
We will see $200k+ Bitcoin in 2026.
“We will see $200k+ Bitcoin in 2026.”
Not reached yet (high $107,482 since 2025-11-09); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
2026's yearly candle will close green.
“2026's yearly candle will close green.”
2026 yearly candle closes 2026-12-31, not elapsed. Open $104,695-ish, currently $58,161 (below open), so red so far, but full year not yet decided.