PlanB
Resolved (37)
- ✓
Bitcoin has a greater than 50% probability of going lower (below 200WMA ~$61k or Realized Price ~$53k) from the current ~$73k level.
“IMO data is telling us that we have not seen bottom formation yet, and that there is a >50% probablility that we go lower (below 200wma $61k or realized price $53k).”
BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-06-01..2026-07-06], reaching the $61,000 downside target.
- ✓
No doubt there will be a new bull market with new ATHs, but IMO bitcoin will go lower first (dip toward the 200-week MA ~$59k / realized price ~$54k) before the next bull market.
“No doubt there will be a new bull market with new ATHs but IMO bitcoin will go lower🔵before next bull market🔴 * Note color scale is different in this chart: drawdown (BTC price / ATH) instead of relative strength index (RSI). Easier to calculate and easier to understand.”
Predicted BTC would go lower toward ~$59k before next bull market; by deadline 2026-06-20 low hit $59,073, dipping to the predicted 200-week-MA zone.
- ✓
Bitcoin would not be surprised to dip below the 200-week MA (~$59k) and Realized Price (~$54k) before the next leg up toward S2F $500k levels.
“As said before, I would not be surprised if BTC dips below 200w moving average ($59k) and realized price ($54k) before next leg up towards S2F $500k levels ($250k-$1m range).”
BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-04-01..2026-07-06], reaching the $59,000 downside target.
- ✗
I would not be surprised if bitcoin will NOT drop below $100k again, as $100k resistance turns into $100k support (5 monthly closes in a row above $100k).
“63% of people think bitcoin will drop below $100k. I would not be surprised if bitcoin will NOT drop below $100k again, as we see $100k resistance turn into $100k support, as Sept close was the 5th monthly close in a row above $100k. Same happened with $10k, $1k, $100 and $10.”
BTC fell to $59,073 in [2025-10-07..2026-06-20], below the $100,000 floor.
- ✗
Does not think Bitcoin will drop below $100,000 again.
“I know there's two out of three people that think that Bitcoin can still drop below 100,000 again, but I don't think it will.”
BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-10-03..2026-07-06], below the $100,000 floor.
- ✗
Expects overbought FOMO months (monthly RSI 80+ 'red dots') this cycle, probably in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026.
“expect to see some red dots, at least, uh in this cycle, uh probably even this year, in in the last quarter, or in the first quarter of next year.”
Rather than Q4-2025/Q1-2026 FOMO, BTC topped at $126,296 (Oct 6 2025) and slid to ~$60k by Mar 2026 with no RSI-80+ months.
- ✗
Bitcoin could continue its yearly doubling pattern: possibly $160k end of 2025, $320k in 2026, $640k in 2027.
“2 out of 3 people think 2026 will be a bear market where bitcoin crashes. But what if bitcoin continues its yearly doubling, from $20k to $40k in 2023, to ~$80k in 2024, possibly $160k end of 2025, $320k 2026, $640k 2027. Wouldn't surprise me..”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $160,000.
- ✓
Expects many more all-time highs in the months to come.
“I think there will be many more all-time highs in uh the months to come.”
After $109,629 (Jul 3 2025), BTC set fresh ATHs into $126,296 on Oct 6 2025.
- ✗
Expects a couple of months with monthly RSI higher than 80 as Bitcoin enters a bull market.
“this RSI chart is saying we're entering a bull market and I expect uh a couple of months with an RSI higher than 80 80 plus”
No RSI-80+ months followed; BTC topped at $126,296 (Oct 2025) and rolled into the 2026 drawdown to $57,718.
- ✓
Expects new all-time highs from now on — $110k and higher, followed by more monthly-close all-time highs.
“in my opinion from now on we'll see new all-time highs. So that would be 110k and higher followed by more monthly close all-time highs.”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2025-05-11..2026-05-11], reaching the $110,000 target.
- ✗
Expects at least four months of monthly RSI 80+ (steep FOMO-phase price gains) like all past bull markets.
“I expect at least four months of high 80 plus RSIs like all the past bull markets and it can be five or eight or six”
The four-plus RSI-80+ FOMO months never came; BTC peaked $126,296 (Oct 2025) without a blow-off and fell to ~$58k by mid-2026.
- ✗
The current cycle has not yet experienced a real bull phase, let alone a bear phase; the bull market continues. If the doubling pattern holds, Bitcoin could reach $160,000 by the end of 2025.
“a real bear market usually comes after a true bull run ... Since that divergence has yet to happen in the current cycle, PlanB argues that the market has not experienced a real bull phase, let alone entered a bear phase”
Doubling pattern implied ~$160k by end-2025; high_by_deadline (2025-12-31) was only $126,296, never reached $160k, so the doubling-to-$160k call failed.
- ◐
Expects more all-time highs in 2025 plus multiple months of RSI 80+.
“again I expect more all-time highs in 20125 I expect higher rsis above 80 red uh multiple months of RSI 80”
More 2025 ATHs did come ($126,296 in Oct), but the paired RSI-80+ months never materialized.
- ✓
Expects a lot more all-time highs in 2025.
“so I expect a lot more all-time highs this year”
2025 delivered multiple new all-time highs, peaking $126,296 in October.
- ✗
States $270,000 as the absolute minimum Bitcoin price he expects in 2025 (based on at least three 40%+ RSI-80 months).
“that's the absolute minimum bitcoin price that I expect in 2025 5 270,000”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $270,000.
- ✗
In 2025 Bitcoin will reach an average price of $500,000, with a possibility of touching $1 million and a minimum of $250,000 per coin.
“in 2025 Bitcoin (BTC) will reach an average price of $500,000. He also believes that there is a possibility of touching the peak price of $1 million with a minimum price per coin of $250,000.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $500,000.
- ✓
Expects many more months with all-time highs in 2025, similar to previous bull markets.
“however I do expect for 2025 that we'll see many more months with all-time highs similar to the previous bull markets”
2025 printed multiple new all-time highs, peaking at $126,296 on Oct 6 2025.
- ✗
Expects many months in 2025 with monthly RSI of 80+ (FOMO-phase price surges).
“well in my opinion there will be many months in 2025 with an erors RSI of 80 plus”
The 2025 advance to $126,296 was a gradual grind (with a $74k Apr drawdown) — no parabolic RSI-80+ FOMO months occurred by 2025-12-31.
- ✗
Bitcoin will hit S2F target of ~$500k average (range $250k–$1m) in 2025.
“My forward guidance for 2024 has not changed since Oct 6, 2022 when bitcoin was 20k (see below): ✅rise into April 2024 halving ✅halving around 55k ✅pump after halving ✅hit 100k in 2024 - hit S2F target ~500k average (range 250k-1m) in 2025”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $250,000.
- ✓
Expects more all-time highs over the next ~six months following the December 2024 breakout.
“so I think that will be next for the couple of uh I think six or what months more all-time highs to come”
Prior ATH ~$108,388 (Dec 17 2024) was exceeded by a new ATH of $112,000 on May 22 2025, within the ~6-month horizon.
- ✗
Expects the FOMO phase (monthly RSI 80+, like 2021/2017 bull markets) to arrive within the next couple of months.
“in my opinion uh red is next for the next couple of months uh means an RSI of 80 uh or more and it will be much alike 201 21 2017”
No overbought FOMO surge in early 2025 — BTC instead fell from ~$109k (Jan) to a $74,421 low (Apr 7 2025).
- ✗
Last opportunity to buy bitcoin below $100k, as Saylor's and Trump's planned purchases are imminent.
“You can still front-run Saylor's $42B bitcoin purchase and Trump's $92B bitcoin purchase, but not for long! You have the inside info because you are on X, but only until the normies and tradfi begin to understand. Last opportunity to buy bitcoin below $100k?”
BTC fell to $74,421 in [2024-11-19..2025-08-19], below the $100,000 floor.
- ✗
Best-guess Bitcoin scenario 2024-2028: 2024 (EOY) $150,000; 2025 $800,000; 2026 $400,000; 2027 $300,000; 2028 $400,000.
“My best guess Bitcoin scenario 2024-2028: 2024 (EOY): $0.15million, 2025: $0.8million, 2026: $0.4million, 2027: $0.3million, 2028: $0.4million”
BTC's high was only $108,389 through the 2024-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000.
- ✓
By the end of 2024 Bitcoin will climb to as high as $100,000; it will reach roughly $532,000 in a slow pump maybe well into 2025; S2F suggests $50,000-$60,000 at the next halving.
“by the end of 2024, the analyst expects the flagship decentralized finance (DeFi) asset to climb to as high as $100,000 ... reach a whopping $532,000 in a slow pump 'maybe well into 2025'”
BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2024-01-04..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target.
- ✓
$35k floor call: lowest bitcoin price in the run-up to the April 2024 halving will hold above ~$35k (bottom is in).
“Interesting! - 39% agrees with my $35k floor call - 36% hopes for a dip to buy cheap bitcoin - 25% is Capo-level bear, expects sub-$30k/20k crash - On average the market expects max drawdown to $31k (39%*$38k + 36%*$32.5k + 15%*$25k + 10%*$10k)”
BTC's low was $37,500, held at/above $35,000 (through 2024-04-30).
- ✗
According to the S2F chart, BTC will bounce between 50k-200k until 2024; it is likely we hit 200k before 2024.
“@Kripto_Poyraz No, according to this chart, btc will bounce between 50k-200k until 2024. We are at 50k, current ath is 69k, and it is likely we hit 200k before 2024.”
BTC's high was only $52,100 through the 2023-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000.
- ✗
Stock-to-Flow model on track since March 2019, in 1 standard deviation band, aiming for $100K (by year-end 2021).
“Stock-to-Flow model on track since March 2019, in 1 standard deviation band (dark blue), aiming for $100K”
BTC's high was only $59,119 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000.
- ◐
PlanB expects no super cycle this halving cycle, with Bitcoin going up to unimaginable levels after crossing $100k before falling again.
“we will not have a super cycle this halving cycle. So next year or until 2024 before next halving. Because of greed and fear... once we really have crossed that hundred thousand line, then the FOMO will set in and people will just buy Bitcoin and Bitcoin will go up to unimaginable levels.”
By deadline 2024 BTC crossed $100k (high $108,389) with FOMO 'unimaginable levels' as described, but the 'no super cycle... falling again' framing was only partly realized — fell back later (to $58k) but after the 2024 window.
- ✗
PlanB predicts Bitcoin could reach $200k–$300k this bull cycle, consistent with prior cycles going 2–3x above the S2F model level.
“The bull run isn't finished yet. And I will go beyond the 100K level towards, I mean, 200, 300. You know, in last bull markets, the Bitcoin price went up 2X or 3X or sometimes even more above the stock-to-flow levels. So yeah, we could see 300K Bitcoin.”
Predicted $200k-$300k by 2022; high_by_deadline (2022) was only $59,250 — BTC never approached the band, it crashed to $15,460.
- ◐
PlanB expects 2022 to be another bull year, 2023 a bear market, and 2025 the next run up.
“it could be that 2022 is a bull year. I'm sorry, 2022 is a bull year. So next year, another bull run. 2023 is a bear market. 2024, we'll stay in the bear market. And 2025, we'll go up again. I wouldn't be surprised to see that happening like that.”
Got 2022 as a bear year wrong (called it a bull year; BTC crashed to $15,460) but 2025 'go up again' largely held (rose to $126,296); mixed across the timed sequence.
- ✓
PlanB's S2F model predicts Bitcoin should average $100,000 for the post-2020-halving period through 2024.
“after the 2020 halving, the price level should be on average for that halving period. So until 2024 should on average be $100,000. So that is the real proof or validation, if you will, if we track, if the data still fits that very simple linear regression.”
BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2021-11-29..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target.
- ✗
PlanB predicts Bitcoin will cross $100k by end of 2021, per his simplified S2F model invalidation threshold.
“if it should be 100k on average, then, well, one and a half year into the halving cycle... it should at least cross that average of 100k... historically looking to last two bull runs 2017 and 2013... that's how I came up with the end of 2021. It should be above 100k.”
BTC's high was only $59,250 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000.
- ✓
Floor model's $98K November 2021 close will probably be a first miss (after nailing Aug, Sep, Oct). No model is perfect, but this is a big miss and the first in 10y.
“Floor model $98K Nov close will probably be a first miss (after nailing Aug, Sep, Oct).”
Predicted the $98K floor-model Nov 2021 close would miss; BTC closed Nov 2021 around $57k (high_by_deadline only $59,446), far below $98K — a clear miss as predicted.
- ✗
Plan B predicts Bitcoin will reach at least $100,000 by end of 2021, consistent with his Stock-to-Flow model.
“I still think it will be $100,000 end of year minimum. And there's lots of time. I mean, we're at 40 now, so that's a 2.5x.”
BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000.
- ✓
Plan B predicts Bitcoin will not fall to $20,000, dismissing calls for a return to that level.
“I still see people on the internet calling for 20,000 Bitcoin. I don't think that's going to happen.”
BTC fell as low as $15,460 in [2021-08-13..2023-08-13], reaching the $20,000 downside target.
- ✗
Floor model worst-case monthly Bitcoin closes for 2021: Aug>$47K, Sep>$43K, Oct>$63K, Nov>$98K, Dec>$135K.
“Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K”
BTC fell to $28,800 in [2021-06-20..2021-12-31], below the $135,000 floor.
- ✗
$288,000 is the average price for the current 4-year Bitcoin cycle, so we should be somewhere at that level by December 2021.
“288 is the average for this 4-year cycle, so I guessed that we should be somewhere at that level by December this year”
BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $288,000.
Open (11)
- ⏳
Bitcoin will likely bottom below the Realized Price (~$53k) before the next bull market, as it has in every previous bear market.
“Bitcoin will likely bottom BELOW Realized Price (~$53k), just like it did in EVERY previous bear market. Right now the grey Realized Price line has been glued to the black 200-week Geometric MA line since 2023. What do you think: new low incoming or different this time?”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-25); 2028-12-25 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Same chart that called $1T mcap / $50k BTC for the 2020-2024 halving period now shows $10T mcap / $500k BTC for 2028 — still my view.
“My view has not changed since 2019. In 2019 btc market cap was $100B ($5k btc). This chart said btc mcap would grow to $1T ($50k btc) in 2020-2024 halving period (blue arrow). It did. The same chart shows $10T mcap / $500k btc for 2028 (red arrow). That is still my view.”
Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-11-23); 2028-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bullish — expects Bitcoin to at least 2x from the ~$109k October close (>= ~$218k), putting it in the $250k-$1M stock-to-flow range.
“So, in conclusion, um, I'm bullish. I expect at least 2x from the current Uh, and that puts Bitcoin in well in the range of 250k 1 million of stock-to-flow Uh, that's what I'm expecting.”
Not reached yet (high $111,222 since 2025-11-01); 2027-11-01 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will be >$250k in 2026 (next big call after correctly flagging the Nov-2022 $15.5k bottom, $32k+ halving and $100k+ 2025).
“✅ Nov'22 $15.5k was the bottom ✅ 2024 halving was above $32k ✅ 2025 is above $100k These Jan 12, 2023 predictions might seem conservative and obvious now, but at the time ($18k) most people thought I was crazy. So what's next? IMO bitcoin will be >$250k in 2026.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-09-18); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Expects Bitcoin to reach $300,000 by the end of 2026, contrary to the 60% of poll respondents who think it won't.
“end of next year. So one and a half year from now, this is the 300,000 points. 60% of the people think we're not going to go there. In my opinion, we will.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-08-04); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Thinks Bitcoin goes a little higher than $300k, to the stock-to-flow target of ~$500,000 on average.
“In my opinion, we will. In fact, I think the we go a little higher to the stock toflow target of 500,000”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-08-04); 2028-08-04 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Expects Bitcoin to go to the stock-to-flow level and at least reach $200k before the end of 2026.
“that's this line before the end of 2026 that's this line. So looking at this chart, I think it will it go to the uh stock flow level and at least go to this 200k level, but 40% thinks otherwise.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-07-03); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin average price in the 2024–2028 halving cycle will be around $500k (range $250k–$1m).
“FYI: I still believe that bitcoin average price will be ~$0.5m this halving cycle (2024-2028). Note that S2F prediction is very rough (obviously because the prediction is made only using scarcity/S2F-ratio) with a $0.25m-$1m range (so $0.3m or $0.6m average would also be fine).”
Resolves based on whether the 2024–2028 cycle average price falls within $250k–$1m, assessed at the 2028 halving.
- ⏳
Reaffirms his stock-to-flow target of a ~$500,000 average Bitcoin price for the 2024-2028 halving cycle.
“now stock to flow Target my target is still this 500,000 for average right for the 2024”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-03-03); 2028-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Based on the Bitcoin power law, the compound annual growth rate over the next 10 years is expected to range from roughly 45% down to 25%, factoring in bear markets.
“based on the power law um it would still show that we're you know 45 to 25 over the next 10 years so uh and that's compound annual growth rate it uh some people might say that doesn't sound like much but those numbers get very high very quick when you're compounding”
10-year CAGR band (25%-45%) runs to 2034; a decade-long compound-growth window cannot be resolved yet.
- ⏳
Expects the average Bitcoin price over the 2024-2028 halving period to land in the $250k-$1M stock-to-flow range.
“if you take a margin of say two times the model value 500 two times is 1 million and you divide it by two IS 250 ,000 in area uh that's where I expect the uh average of this 4year period”
2024-2028 cycle-average window not elapsed; running far below $250k-$1M (peak $126,296, ~$63k mid-2026).