Pierre Rochard
Resolved (7)
- ✗
A new Bitcoin bull market has begun.
“The next bitcoin bull market has begun.”
Called a new bull market started 2026-06-07 at $63,303; instead BTC dropped to $58,161 (low $58,000) with high since made only $67,264 — a decline, not a bull market.
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64 days since the $126,296 ATH; BTC needs +$33,606 (+36.3%) for a new ATH — the bull market is only beginning.
“64 days since the $126,296 ATH on 2025-10-06. BTC needs +$33,606 (+36.3%) for a new ATH. The bull market is only beginning.”
Said bull market only beginning, needing +36.3% for new ATH; instead BTC peaked at $97,964 then fell to $58,161, never approaching the $126,296 ATH.
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It seems more likely than not that the 4-year cycles are over: halvings are immaterial to trading float, 95% of BTC has been mined, supply comes from buying out OGs, and demand is spot retail + ETPs added to wealth platforms + treasury companies. Bitcoin's CAGR is now tied to interest rates / macro, not the halving.
“It seems more likely than not that the 4 year cycles are over. Halvings are immaterial to trading float, 95% of the BTC have been mined, supply comes from buying out OGs, demand is the sum of spot retail, ETPs getting added to wealth platforms, and treasury companies.”
Said 4-year cycles are over (made $118,702); BTC topped ~Oct 2025 at $126,296 then busted to $58,000 — consistent with a normal cycle peak/crash.
- ✗
Bitcoin bull market is beginning.
“Bitcoin bull market is beginning.”
Called the bull market 'beginning' at $108,888; BTC made a marginal high of $126,296 then crashed to $58,161, far below the made price.
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This Bitcoin bull market is different from previous cycles; we are likely to see more gradual price growth that aligns with underlying demand, rather than the sharp run-ups and crashes of the past, supported by a healthier price floor than in past cycles.
“This bitcoin bull market is different from previous cycles. ... we are likely to see more gradual price growth that aligns with underlying demand, rather than the sharp run-ups and crashes of the past.”
Predicted gradual growth with no sharp run-ups/crashes; instead BTC ran to $126,296 then crashed sharply to $58,000 — the opposite path.
- ✓
We are at parity with 2016; baseline expectation is that Bitcoin is going to do very well in 2025.
“We’re at parity with 2016. Baseline expectation is that Bitcoin is going to do very well in 2025.”
'BTC does very well in 2025' — within the 2025 window it set a new ATH of $126,296 (~+33% from $95,131) despite giving gains back later in the year.
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This could be the last bitcoin cycle; Saylor has unlocked the Speculative Attack (i.e. the classic four-year boom/bust pattern may not repeat).
“This could be the last bitcoin cycle, Saylor has unlocked the Speculative Attack.”
Said 4-year boom/bust may not repeat; instead BTC peaked at $126,296 then crashed >50% to $58,161 — the classic cycle pattern recurred.
Open (5)
- ⏳
Pierre Rochard expects Bitcoin to recover and possibly hit new all-time highs by the end of 2026.
“I think we'll see a nice rotation of capital back into Bitcoin, we'll recover. And I would think we'll recover by the end of the year. New highs by the end of this year? I think we could.”
Window is end-2026; not elapsed. As of 2026-06-30 BTC fell to $58,161 (high since made only $66,384, well below the prior ATH ~$126k), so no new highs yet, but recovery/new-ATH by year-end remains undetermined.
- ⏳
Bitcoin is in deep value territory and the most undervalued asset in history, ready for a 'seismic rally' / about to 'explode' in 2026.
“Bitcoin is a Ticking Time Bomb About to EXPLODE in 2026 | Pierre Rochard”
No 'seismic rally' yet — only reached $82,814 then fell back to $58,161 — but the 2026-12-31 window has not elapsed (as_of 2026-06-30).
- ⏳
Bitcoin is in a monetary tightening cycle with big macro tailwinds over the next 5 years (bullish 5-year directional/timing call).
“Also, that’s in a monetary tightening cycle. Big macro tailwinds over the next 5 years.”
5-year macro-tailwind window runs to 2030-03-24 and is nowhere near elapsed; BTC is down to $58,161 but the call's horizon remains open.
- ⏳
Biden's 2025 budget is very bullish on Bitcoin; the White House expects $250k by 2035 (Rochard derived ~$254,158 by scaling 2025 vs 2035 expected digital-asset tax revenue against BTC's then-price).
“BREAKING🚨 Biden's 2025 budget is very bullish on #Bitcoin, the White House expects $250k by 2035. They are counting on it for their tax revenues!”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-03-11); 2035-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
When BTC has a market cap of $33 trillion (matching the US national debt at the time), the USD exchange rate will be $1.7 million per bitcoin.
“When #BTC has a marketcap of $33 trillion, the USD exchange rate will be $1.7 million per bitcoin. The US national debt is $33 trillion.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-12-06); 2029-12-06 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.