Philip Swift
Resolved (5)
- ✓
Bitcoin will rally to the short-term holder realized price near $81,000 as a near-term target.
“BTC has been trending up nicely since my post below. If it breaks out properly then STH Realised Price, currently at $81k, is a real near-term target”
BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-04-14..2026-07-06], reaching the $81,000 target.
- ✓
Bitcoin will be back above $100,000 very soon
“+100k again very soon for Bitcoin.”
BTC fell as low as $60,001 in [2025-05-08..2026-05-08], reaching the $100,000 downside target.
- ✓
The Bitcoin bull market is just getting started and has 'a long way to go' — citing the MVRV Z-Score (2.87, rising) sitting well below the >5 readings seen at the 2021 cycle top, implying substantial further upside despite the new all-time high.
“Swift stated the Bitcoin bull market has 'a long way to go' ... the MVRV Z-Score remains low but rising as of March 12 ... up to 2.87, rising from 2.82 when Swift posted on X. In the 2021 bull cycle, the score stood at over 5.”
Bull had 'a long way to go' from $71,476 — BTC subsequently rallied to $126,296 (~+77%), confirming substantial further upside.
- ✗
Bitcoin could 'quite easily' return to $20,000 within the next three to four months — a ~25% downside move from the prevailing price, which Swift said was entirely possible for a volatile asset.
“Bitcoin price can 'easily' hit $20K in next 4 months — Philip Swift. [Swift]: a return to $20,000 could 'quite easily' play out within the next three to four months, as a -25% move would be possible for a volatile asset like Bitcoin.”
Predicted a -25% move to $20,000 by 2023-08-25; BTC's lowest in the window was only $24,750 and it never reached $20k.
- ◐
Bitcoin's bear market is largely over and will last '2-3 months max'; 'I believe we are now at the point of maximum opportunity for Bitcoin,' with the bulk of the bear market likely behind it and not long to go until BTC exits its macro downtrend.
“Bitcoin bear market will last '2-3 months max' — Interview with BTC analyst Philip Swift. [Swift] I believe we are now at the point of maximum opportunity for Bitcoin ... the bulk of the bear market is already 'likely' behind it.”
Cycle bottom ($15,460) did form within his window, but BTC first dropped sharply on the FTX collapse — contradicting 'bear largely over' before recovering to ~$21,479 by the deadline.
Open (1)
- ⏳
Bitcoin's extreme value zone sits in the $40,000s and sustained drops below that level feel unrealistic.
“BTC is already in good value territory from a long-term perspective, but I think extreme value sits in the $40k's region. Sustained drops below that area feel somewhat unrealistic imo.”
BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $40,000 (through 2026-07-06).