Peter Schiff
Resolved (11)
- ◐
Bitcoin will crash as tech stocks sell off, heading in the opposite direction from gold.
“It looks like the correction in tech stocks has finally begun. That's bad news for Bitcoin, as the tech rally was its main support. As tech stocks sell off, Bitcoin should crash. Gold will likely head in the opposite direction, as investors rush to buy a true safe-haven asset.”
BTC did edge down from $63,806 toward $58,000 (~9%), a modest decline rather than the predicted 'crash'.
- ◐
A minimum target for BTC is about $50K; long term Bitcoin will go much lower than $50K.
“It’s hard to find a chart that looks worse than $MSTR. At a minimum, the stock should drop to about $80, which is half its current price. It’s hard to imagine MSTR dropping that much without a significant decline in Bitcoin as well. I’d say a minimum target for BTC is about $50K.”
Direction down was right (fell from $86,210 to $58,000) but the stated $50K minimum target was not reached; no deadline, window still open.
- ✓
Bitcoin finally broke below $100K. The bigger crash is happening in Ether, which is about to break below $3K. Bitcoin could surrender all its 2025 gains (roughly $90K).
“Bitcoin finally broke below $100K. But the bigger crash is happening in Ether, which is about to break below $3K.”
Predicted BTC could surrender all 2025 gains (~$90K) after breaking below $100K; from $101,468 it fell to $58,000, below $90K and into the loss zone.
- ✗
Bitcoin was born out of the financial crisis of 2008. Ironically, the financial crisis of 2025 will kill it.
“Bitcoin was born out of the financial crisis of 2008. Ironically, the financial crisis of 2025 will kill it.”
A 2025 crisis was supposed to 'kill' Bitcoin by year-end, but BTC made a new ATH of $126,296 within the window — not killed.
- ✗
Bitcoin's mania has topped out and it is not going to reach $100,000.
“The whole mania has topped out and as of now going to 100 we're not going to 100 Peter probably not probably not now it's now it it could happen.”
BTC rose to $109,358 in [2024-04-25..2025-01-25], above the $100,000 ceiling.
- ✗
Bitcoin's collapse will be more spectacular than its rally once the speculative ETF frenzy ends.
“The speculative frenzy around spot Bitcoin ETFs will end soon. Bitcoin's collapse will be more spectacular than its rally. In contrast gold's rally is real.”
Predicted ETF-driven collapse, but BTC rallied from $41,987 to a $126,296 ATH after spot ETF approval — no collapse.
- ✗
Bitcoin will crash after a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved or GBTC converts, as front-running speculators sell the news.
“#Bitcoin is approaching $38K as speculators continue to front run a new #BitcoinETF. However, once that ETF is launched all of the speculators will have already bought. So when those buyers sell to take profits, there won't be many left to buy the ETF. Get ready for a crash.”
After the Jan-2024 ETF approval BTC dipped only to $38,501 (Jan 23) then made a new ATH of $73,836 by Mar 14 2024 — the opposite of a crash.
- ✗
Bitcoin has far more downside risk than 70%. After such a decline Bitcoin will still be way over-priced, so $5,000 will not even be close to the bottom.
“#Bitcoin has far more downside risk than 70%. After such a decline Bitcoin will still be way over-priced, so $5,000 will not even be close to the bottom. https://t.co/VGj6ZPuwvi”
Predicted bottom well below $5,000; instead BTC bottomed near $16,273 and rallied to $126,296 — never came close to $5K.
- ✓
This could be a rough weekend for crypto. Bitcoin looks poised to crash to $20K and Ethereum to $1K. Don't buy this dip. You'll lose a lot more money.
“This could be a rough weekend for #crypto. #Bitcoin looks poised to crash to $20K and #Ethereum to $1K...Don't buy this dip.”
Predicted BTC crash to $20K; from 28,389 it crashed through $20K to 15,460 shortly after.
- ◐
Bitcoin has broken the neckline of a head-and-shoulders top; the pattern projects a move below $30,000, and once that level is breached a crash below $10,000 is highly likely.
“Bitcoin has finally broken the neckline of a head-and-shoulders top. The scary part for the longs is that the pattern projects a move below $30,000. Once that level is breached Bitcoin will have completed a massive double top. From there a crash below $10,000 is highly likely.”
First leg hit: BTC fell below $30,000 (to 15,460); but the 'crash below $10,000 highly likely' never happened (low 15,460).
- ✗
Following the same pattern as the 2013 crash, Bitcoin will finally bottom out in Sept. of 2023 just below $12,000.
“Following Bitcoin's Dec. 2013 crash, #Bitcoin continued to fall for another 21 months, finally bottoming out at $231 in Sept. of 2015, 80% below its Dec. 2013 peak of $1,150. If the same thing happens again, Bitcoin will finally bottom out in Sept. of 2023 just below $12,000.”
Predicted a Sept-2023 bottom just below $12,000; cycle low was ~15,460 (Nov 2022) and BTC never traded below $12,000 by the Sep 30 2023 deadline.
Open (7)
- ⏳
There's a huge head-and-shoulders top forming. The most likely resolution is a retest of the longer-term uptrend off the Dec. 2018 low, which puts a bottom between $25,000 and $27,000.
“Look at this long-term Bitcoin chart. The uptrend off the Dec. 2022 low is broken. There's a huge head-and-shoulders top forming. The most likely resolution is a retest of the longer-term uptrend off the Dec. 2018 low. If it holds, that puts a bottom between $25,000 and $27,000. https://t.co/aIV806YiUL”
Made at $60,850 (2026-06-06); low since only $57,718 (Jul 1) vs a $25k-$27k target, and the structural head-and-shoulders horizon (no deadline) extends well past 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
If 2026 follows the pattern of Bitcoin's other three down calendar years, BTC will finish 2026 near $30,000.
“Bitcoin has had only four negative calendar years, none consecutive. Last year it fell just 6%. But the average decline in the other three years was 65%. So far this year Bitcoin is down about 30%. If this year is like the other three down years, Bitcoin will finish near $30,000.”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-05); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
There is way too much complacency in Bitcoin for the market to be anywhere near a bottom. When Bitcoin breaks $50K, it should be a quick fall below $20K, which should shake the conviction of long-term HODLers, causing many to finally throw in the towel.
“When Bitcoin breaks $50K, it should be a quick fall below $20K, which should be a big enough drop to shake the conviction of long-term HODLers, causing many to finally throw in the towel.”
Conditional on breaking $50K then falling below $20K; BTC's low is $57,718, never broke $50K — trigger unmet and window open.
- ⏳
Once Bitcoin breaks below $50K, it will quickly fall below $20K, shaking out long-term holders.
“There is way too much complacency in Bitcoin for the market to be anywhere near a bottom. When Bitcoin breaks $50K, it should be a quick fall below $20K, which should be a big enough drop to shake the conviction of long-term HODLers, causing many to finally throw in the towel.”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-02); 2027-03-02 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
If Bitcoin breaks $50K, which looks likely, it seems highly likely it will at least test $20K. I know Bitcoin has done that before, but never with so much hype, leverage, institutional ownership, and market cap at stake.
“If Bitcoin breaks $50K, which looks likely, it seems highly likely it will at least test $20K...I know Bitcoin has done that before, but never with so much hype, leverage, institutional ownership, and market cap at stake.”
Conditional on breaking $50K, which has not happened (low since made $57,718), so the $20K test is untriggered and the window is open.
- ⏳
At no point in its 16-year history did Bitcoin ever trade below a prior ATH four years later. The $126K ATH may have been the final ATH.
“The $126K ATH may have been the final ATH”
Whether $126,296 is the final ATH is an open-ended cycle-horizon claim; no new ATH since (high only $82,814) but the window has not elapsed.
- ⏳
By the time gold reaches its $5K target, it will drag Bitcoin down to $10K, a drop of 95% from its 2021 high.
“By the time they get to their target of $5K for gold, they will drag Bitcoin down to $10K, meaning a drop of 95% from the highest it was valued at in 2021.”
Crash to $10K is conditioned on gold hitting $5K (not occurred); BTC's low since made is only $57,718, trigger unmet and window open.