Peter Brandt
Resolved (14)
- ✓
A completed bear channel in Bitcoin signals further downside; price must reclaim $93k to negate the bearish setup.
“Yet another sell signal in Bitcoin as a bear channel has been completed. Remember that charts can always morph. Price needs to reclaim $93k to negate $BTC”
Bearish call held: after 2026-01-25 BTC never reclaimed $93k (high only $90,477 on 2026-01-28) and fell to $57,718 by 2026-07-01.
- ◐
The current parabolic advance has been violated; the violation of previous parabolas have all declined 80%+. 20% of ATH = $25,240. (Implied downside toward ~$25k.)
“Bitcoin investors, do you know: 1. Bull cycles have experienced exponential decay 2. BTC's bull cycles have undergone parabolic advances 3. The violation of previous parabolas have all declined <80% 4. The current parabolic advance has been violated 20% of ATH = $25,240 https://t.co/0hWAaEd6Dy”
Implied ~80% decline toward 25,240 from 88,172; BTC did decline to 58,000 (~34% off, ~54% off ATH) confirming the bearish direction but nowhere near the 25k / 80%-decay target.
- ✓
A massive broadening top has completed; targets implied are 81k and 58k. (Downside call for BTC to fall toward $81k then $58k.)
“Does a sweeping reversal ((Nov 11) followed by 8 days of lower highs and the completion of a massive broadening top qualify as a bear market? Targets implied are 81k and 58k Those who now claim they will be big buyers at $58K will be pukers by the time BTC reaches $60k https://t.co/Z01KKDSGmV”
Downside targets 81k then 58k from 91,462: low_since_made reached exactly 58,000, hitting both implied targets.
- ✓
Applying a consistent 75-week bull-cycle pattern, Brandt projected the bull-market top would arrive during the week of Sept. 22, 2025, plus or minus two weeks (window ~Sept 15-28), with Bitcoin reaching between $125,000 and $145,000.
“during the week of Sept. 22, plus or minus two weeks ... Bitcoin could reach between $125,000 and $145,000 if the historical pattern repeats.”
Top window Sept 15-28 2025 at 125-145k: BTC printed its cycle high of 126,296 by deadline, within the price band and timing window; price then declined to 58,000.
- ✓
I think there is a 30% chance that BTC has topped for this bull market cycle.
“I think there is a 30% chance that BTC has topped for this bull market cycle.”
30% chance BTC had topped: it did top — high_since_made was 126,296 (just above the 117,437 spot) before collapsing to 58,000, confirming the cycle top was effectively in.
- ✓
Bitcoin could reach a cycle top between $125,000 and $150,000 by August or September 2025 (if it reclaims its broken parabolic trendline). Recorded at the lower bound $125,000.
“a cycle top between $125,000 and $150,000 by August or September 2025”
BTC traded as high as $124,533 in [2025-05-01..2025-09-30], reaching the $125,000 target (within 0.4% — near-miss counted).
- ✗
Based on Jan-Mar '24 run as ONLY one 'time/price' Bayesian probability 'priors,' price could hit $125k by New Years. (BTC reaching $125,000 by year-end 2024.)
“Bitcoin gave everyone a chance to buy breaks from Mar-Oct '24 When BTC decides to "Mark-Up," it never looks back Throughout its history, when BTC runs - it runs Based on Jan-Mar '24 run as ONLY one "time/price" Bayesian probability "priors," price could hit $125k by New Years https://t.co/HCiKKojDkA”
BTC's high was only $108,389 through the 2024-12-31 horizon; never reached $125,000.
- ◐
Bitcoin $BTC is now in the sweet spot of the bull market halving cycle that should top in the $130k to $150K range next Aug/Sep. (Recorded at the lower bound $130,000 for an Aug/Sep 2025 cycle top.)
“Bitcoin $BTC is now in the sweet spot of the bull market halving cycle that should top in the $130k to $150K range next Aug/Sep. I measure cycles differently than most. For background see link here: https://t.co/XWxS0kT4pO https://t.co/3oDYzIQf69”
BTC reached $124,533 by the 2025-09-30 horizon — within 4.2% of $130,000 but short.
- ✓
Bitcoin's triangle measured-move target is $94,000.
“B I T C O I N $BTC Target of 94,000 is measured move of triangle projected from breakout level on semi-log”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2024-10-29..2025-10-28], reaching the $94,000 target.
- ✗
My target is $135,000 in Aug/Sep 2025. A close below $48K negates my chart analysis.
“My target is $135,000 in Aug/Sep 2025. [A] close below $48K negates my chart analysis.”
BTC's high was only $124,533 through the 2025-09-30 horizon; never reached $135,000.
- ✗
Bitcoin's target from the current bull cycle is $135,000 in August or September 2025, with a close below $48k negating the setup.
“My target is $135,000 in Aug/Sep 2025 -Close below $48K negates my chart analysis”
BTC's high was only $124,533 through the 2025-09-30 horizon; never reached $135,000.
- ✗
With the thrust above the upper boundary of the 15-month channel, the target for the current bull market cycle scheduled to end in Aug/Sep 2025 is being raised from $120,000 to $200,000.
“With the thrust above the upper boundary of the 15-month channel, the target for the current bull market cycle scheduled to end in Aug/Sep 2025 is being raised from $120,000 to $200,000.”
BTC's high was only $124,533 through the 2025-09-30 horizon; never reached $200,000.
- ✓
I believe: 1. The $BTC bottom is in 2. New ATHs not coming until Q3 2024 3. Chop fest in the meanwhile.
“Anyone who declares they know the future path of any market is a fool. Markets will ALWAYS surprise. Yet, with this disclaimer, I believe: 1. The $BTC bottom is in 2. New ATHs not coming until Q3 2024 3. Chop fest in the meanwhile I've used this blueprint for approx 2 years https://t.co/hVt0zbTOsm”
Bottom in (low_by_deadline 33,400 ≈ entry, held) + new ATHs not until Q3 2024: ATH (73,836 by deadline) actually came Mar 2024, before Q3 — but bottom was in and chop held; new sustained ATHs did extend into 2024. Net the bottom-is-in core call was right and price rose to 126,296.
- ✓
The double-walled fulcrum bottom pattern in Bitcoin has a 2x measured target in the mid-$25,000s.
“The bottom in $BTC is a double walled fulcrum pattern. Extremely rare. The 2X target is mid 25's.”
BTC traded as high as $49,102 in [2023-01-29..2024-01-28], reaching the $25,000 target.
Open (7)
- ⏳
As I see it Bitcoin has met its initial target at the Feb low. This does not mean BTC cannot work lower or have a terminal wash-out. I do not see a tradable low until October.
“As I see it Bitcoin has met its initial target at Feb low. This does not mean that BTC cannot work lower or have a terminal wash-out. I do not see a tradable low until October. https://t.co/Yg9RL8U7cF”
'No tradable low until October 2026'; deadline 2026-10-31 open, BTC near the $57,718 low — timing undetermined.
- ⏳
Brandt projects Bitcoin reaching $250,000 in late 2029, and is 'not calling for a low until Sep/Oct 2026' — anticipating a prolonged bottoming phase rather than a confirmed bottom in early 2026.
“I am not calling for a low until Sep/Oct 2026.”
Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-05-04); 2029-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Should Bitcoin continue with the most remarkable cyclic patterns of any market in the past 15 years, an investable low is scheduled for Sep/Oct 2026. The next high (should patterns continue) will be between $300k and $500k in Sep/Oct 2029.
“Should Bitcoin continue with the most remarkable cyclic patterns of any market in the past 15 years, an investable low is scheduled for Sep/Oct 2026...The next high (should patterns continue) will be between $300k and $500k in Sep/Oct 2029.”
Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-23); 2029-10-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will find a tradable low in September or October 2026 and then rally to $300k–$500k in the subsequent cycle.
“Should Bitcoin continue with the most remarkable cyclic patterns of any market in the past 15 years, an investable low is scheduled for Sep/Oct 2026. That low might or might not penetrate the Feb 2026 low. The next high (should patterns continue) will be between $300k and $500k”
Sep/Oct 2026 low window (deadline 2026-10-31) still open, and the $300k-$500k target is a future-cycle level — undetermined.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will bottom in August–October 2026 then move sharply higher.
“@papachetado BTC to bottom in Aug-Oct then straight up. Anyway, my think this minute”
Bottom Aug-Oct 2026 then sharply higher; deadline 2026-10-31 not elapsed, undetermined.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will not reach $200,000 until Q3 2029 (walking back his earlier 2025 $200K target).
“Bitcoin won't reach $200,000 until Q3 2029”
'Won't reach $200k until Q3 2029'; window open to 2029-09-30, high since made only ~$98k, undetermined.
- ⏳
The next Bitcoin bull market cycle should reach approximately $200,000.
“Full disclosure folks ... The next bull market in Bitcoin should take us to $200,000 or so.”
Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-11-21); 2028-05-21 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.