Nicholas Merten
Resolved (11)
- ✓
Bitcoin will come down further and effectively meet his ~$56,000 first major downside target (from ~$59-60k).
“target now. It's about $56,000, okay? Currently trading at 59, 60K-ish. You know, probably going to flirt around this region for a little bit. I do imagine we'll come down and you know, effectively meet that 56 at least.”
BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-06-29..2026-07-06], reaching the $56,000 downside target (within 3.1% — near-miss counted).
- ◐
No bounce from here; he foresees Bitcoin breaking further down below the February low.
“Now, in this case, I don't think that we're going to see a bounce at this point. Uh I do foresee us actually breaking a little”
BTC made a marginal new low ($57,718 on 2026-07-01, below the $60,001 Feb low) as called, but 'no bounce from here' failed — it rallied ~10% to $63,599 by 2026-07-06.
- ✓
Bitcoin will hit his weekly pivot level of $65,500 this week (he 'fully anticipates' the weekly target being met).
“And that weekly pivot that I've highlighted, the 65,500, is a really nice level for two reasons. Again, very likely to get met this week.”
BTC traded as high as $65,764 in [2026-06-12..2026-06-14], reaching the $65,500 target.
- ✓
Bitcoin will get a push back up to about $65,000 (a 10-12% move) this week off the long setup.
“it's an easy set up to just kind of showcase that you're probably going to at least get a push back up. In this case, we're looking for about 65, which is over about 10 to 12% move”
BTC traded as high as $65,764 in [2026-06-08..2026-06-14], reaching the $65,000 target.
- ✓
Bitcoin is very likely to put in a new low, taking out the February low (~$60k).
“At this point, it is very likely that we are like, you know, going to put in a new low, right? So, our February low sits here.”
BTC took out the 2026-02-06 low of $60,001, printing $58,000 (2026-06-25) and $57,718 (2026-07-01) after the 2026-06-04 call.
- ✓
More downside ahead: Bitcoin most likely heading down to the $67,000-68,000 region (from ~$71,400).
“anticipate that more downside is to be had and that that 67,000 is just very likely at this point.”
BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-06-01..2026-07-06], reaching the $67,000 downside target.
- ✗
Bitcoin faces a looming correction of over 43%, likely finding support around the $15,000-$16,000 range (roughly a $650 billion total crypto market cap) as the Fed stays hawkish.
“The best-case scenario here for those who've already positioned themselves is that we're going to find support prior lows at around the $650 billion market cap range or for Bitcoin likely around that $15,000-$16,000 range.”
Predicted >43% drop to $15k-$16k support; BTC's low since ($25,984) barely moved from $26,250 and it rallied to $126,296.
- ✗
If BTC fails to break the resistance band untested since January, expect the typical ~85% correction from the all-time highs later in 2023, driven by Fed rate hikes.
“We are entering this potential resistance band which has not been broken again since January, this is going to be a real test ... that typical 85% correction.”
Predicted ~85% correction later in 2023; instead BTC rose from $27,812 to $45,000 by 2023-12-31 (low only $24,750, ~11% down).
- ✗
Bitcoin is reaching its breaking point; a major capitulation event lies ahead if BTC drops below its 2022 low of around $15,600, having failed even to retest its 200-day and 200-week moving averages.
“The fact that we are well suspended and not even coming up to re-test those 200 day, as well as the 200 week [averages], is a big worrying sign.”
Predicted capitulation below the ~$15,600 2022 low; BTC's low since ($16,326) never broke it and price rallied to $126,296.
- ✗
Optimistic case is an expanding-cycles blow-off to $200,000, but the more likely target is roughly $100,000 around March (about a 78% move over three trading months from late-2021 levels).
“It might be that we see the expanding cycles theory broken to some degree, and we go all the way to $200,000. ... [That is a] 78% price move from where we stand at the moment, over three trading months.”
BTC's high was only $59,119 through the 2022-03-31 horizon; never reached $100,000.
- ✓
Bitcoin will not reach $100,000 or $150,000 in Q4 2021 or Q1 2022; the muted reaction to the first futures Bitcoin ETF showed six figures is not coming in that window.
“There's no way we are going to a $100,000 or $150,000 in Q4 of this year or Q1 of next year.”
No six figures by Q1 2022: high by 2022-03-31 deadline was only $66,340, far short of $100k/$150k.
Open (3)
- ⏳
Bitcoin is in the window where it is likely to catch a reversal back to the upside (a major move up, not necessarily new all-time highs) in the coming months.
“So, not only are we in a window of time where Bitcoin's likely to catch a reversal from here. Again, doesn't mean all-time highs, but we could see a major major move back to the upside”
Reversal 'in the coming months' window open; BTC bounced from the $57,718 low to $63,599 (2026-07-06) but no confirmed major move up yet.
- ⏳
Bitcoin continues on toward his major upside target around the $93,000 window (after possibly one more higher low).
“potentially coming down for yet again another higher low. Uh and then we continue on towards our major target up there around that 93,000 dollar window.”
Not reached yet (high $76,034 since 2026-05-27); 2027-05-27 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Still targeting $93,000 for Bitcoin, with the setup's target timeframe of June to July 2026.
“You can see how we had a really red day, market's crashing, but still 93,000 is on the table, right? $93,000 Bitcoin setup, right?”
Not reached yet (high $78,015 since 2026-05-25); 2026-07-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.