Nicholas Merten
Resolved (5)
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Bitcoin faces a looming correction of over 43%, likely finding support around the $15,000-$16,000 range (roughly a $650 billion total crypto market cap) as the Fed stays hawkish.
“The best-case scenario here for those who've already positioned themselves is that we're going to find support prior lows at around the $650 billion market cap range or for Bitcoin likely around that $15,000-$16,000 range.”
Predicted >43% drop to $15k-$16k support; BTC's low since ($25,984) barely moved from $26,250 and it rallied to $126,296.
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If BTC fails to break the resistance band untested since January, expect the typical ~85% correction from the all-time highs later in 2023, driven by Fed rate hikes.
“We are entering this potential resistance band which has not been broken again since January, this is going to be a real test ... that typical 85% correction.”
Predicted ~85% correction later in 2023; instead BTC rose from $27,812 to $45,000 by 2023-12-31 (low only $24,750, ~11% down).
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Bitcoin is reaching its breaking point; a major capitulation event lies ahead if BTC drops below its 2022 low of around $15,600, having failed even to retest its 200-day and 200-week moving averages.
“The fact that we are well suspended and not even coming up to re-test those 200 day, as well as the 200 week [averages], is a big worrying sign.”
Predicted capitulation below the ~$15,600 2022 low; BTC's low since ($16,326) never broke it and price rallied to $126,296.
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Optimistic case is an expanding-cycles blow-off to $200,000, but the more likely target is roughly $100,000 around March (about a 78% move over three trading months from late-2021 levels).
“It might be that we see the expanding cycles theory broken to some degree, and we go all the way to $200,000. ... [That is a] 78% price move from where we stand at the moment, over three trading months.”
BTC's high was only $59,119 through the 2022-03-31 horizon; never reached $100,000.
- ✓
Bitcoin will not reach $100,000 or $150,000 in Q4 2021 or Q1 2022; the muted reaction to the first futures Bitcoin ETF showed six figures is not coming in that window.
“There's no way we are going to a $100,000 or $150,000 in Q4 of this year or Q1 of next year.”
No six figures by Q1 2022: high by 2022-03-31 deadline was only $66,340, far short of $100k/$150k.