Murad Mahmudov
Resolved (1)
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None of the 30 traditional Bitcoin cycle-top signals have been triggered, meaning the market has not yet reached its peak / top region.
“None of the 30 signals that indicate the traditional Bitcoin cycle has reached its top have been triggered, meaning the market has not yet reached its peak.”
Claimed no cycle-top signals triggered / not yet peaked on 2025-11-27 at $91,317; BTC only reached $97,964 then fell ~40% to $58,161, indicating the peak had in fact passed.
Open (2)
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Bitcoin could experience a parabolic rise in the future, reaching a high of $150,000 to $200,000 (this cycle, expected to continue into 2026).
“Bitcoin could experience a parabolic rise in the future, reaching a high of $150,000 to $200,000.”
Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-11-27); 2030-11-27 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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The Bitcoin bull market is not over yet and will continue until 2026; I disagree with the view that the market cycle is only four years — this cycle may extend to four and a half or even five years.
“I disagree with the view that the market cycle is only four years; this cycle may extend to four and a half or even five years, and may continue until 2026.”
Bull-market-continues-until-2026 thesis with deadline 2026-12-31; window still open as of 2026-06-30, though BTC is down ~36% from the $91,317 call to $58,161.