Murad Mahmudov
Resolved (1)
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None of the 30 traditional Bitcoin cycle-top signals have been triggered, meaning the market has not yet reached its peak / top region.
“None of the 30 signals that indicate the traditional Bitcoin cycle has reached its top have been triggered, meaning the market has not yet reached its peak.”
Claimed no cycle-top signals triggered / not yet peaked on 2025-11-27 at $91,317; BTC only reached $97,964 then fell ~40% to $58,161, indicating the peak had in fact passed.
Open (5)
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Bitcoin is going to $1 million plus (roughly a 10x over the next several years)
“You can go to Bitcoin and I would be the first to tell you that I strongly believe that Bitcoin is going to $1 million plus. But this 10x over the next several years, if that even happens, is not going to move the needle”
Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-02-01); 2032-02-01 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
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Bitcoin could experience a parabolic rise in the future, reaching a high of $150,000 to $200,000 (this cycle, expected to continue into 2026).
“Bitcoin could experience a parabolic rise in the future, reaching a high of $150,000 to $200,000.”
Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-11-27); 2030-11-27 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
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The Bitcoin bull market is not over yet and will continue until 2026; I disagree with the view that the market cycle is only four years — this cycle may extend to four and a half or even five years.
“I disagree with the view that the market cycle is only four years; this cycle may extend to four and a half or even five years, and may continue until 2026.”
'Bull continues until 2026' thesis; deadline 2026-12-31 open, though BTC is down ~30% from ~$91k (2025-11-27) to $63,599.
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The BTC bull market is not over and will continue into 2026
“I'm going to give 116 reasons and charts which support the thesis that the BTC bull market is not over and that the bull market will continue into 2026.”
'Bull continues into 2026' with year-end-2026 deadline open; BTC slid from ~$85k (2025-11-26) to $63,599, but the window has not closed.
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Bitcoin will do extremely well over the coming 10 to 15 years
“during the coming 10 to 15 years? Starting from the more obvious, I think Bitcoin is going to do extremely well as it benefits from global distrust both inside and outside of nations.”
'Extremely well over 10-15 years' horizon has barely begun; BTC $63,599, below its 2025-10 ATH — no confirmation either way.