Mike McGlone
Resolved (17)
- ✓
Bitcoin faces a lose-lose scenario: it has already declined ~25% in 2026 and if the broader stock market also falls, crypto losses will likely deepen.
“Gold, Bitcoin May Face Lose-Lose vs. Beta Despite the S&P 500's roughly 10% total return in 2026 to June 3, Bitcoin has declined about 25% and gold has reversed nearly all of its almost 30% surge to the January record near $5,595 an ounce. What of the metal if the beta tide”
Lose-lose / deepening losses: after the call BTC fell from $63,806 to $58,000, extending the 2026 decline as predicted.
- ✓
Bitcoin's 2026 trajectory is bearish — it is down nearly 20% year-to-date despite a 20% Nasdaq rise, and the risk of further decline increases if stocks drop.
“2026 May Be Sell the Open, Buy the Close for Bitcoin At about $73,000 on May 29, Bitcoin is well off its January high near $98,000 and down almost 20% in 2026, despite a roughly 20% rise in the Nasdaq 100 Index. What happens to the crypto if stocks drop? It may be a”
Bearish 2026 trajectory: BTC down from ~$98k January high to $58,161 (low $58,000) — clearly down well over 20% YTD as claimed, decline deepened after the call ($71,314 -> $58,000).
- ✓
Crypto remains in a bear market and is entirely dependent on stocks continuing to rise — if stocks drop, crypto falls further.
“Cryptos remain in a bear market, metals are in a bull market and both appear completely dependent on the stock market to keep going up, not to drop.”
Bear-market, further-downside call: BTC slid from $76,944 (2026-05-18) to $58,161 (low $58,000), a ~24% drop confirming continued decline.
- ◐
Bitcoin is likely to trade in the $60,000–$75,000 range in 2026, defining the risk/reward for the year.
“Bitcoin $60,000-$75,000 May Define 2026 Risk vs. Reward Since 2017, when listed Bitcoin futures started trading, the crypto has been a top performer, which may augur elevated reversion risks when the beta tide ebbs.”
Range $60k–$75k for 2026: BTC traded into the band (high $82,814 above, current $58,161 just below) but spent meaningful time in-range; window (2026) still open so the year-defining claim is mixed, with price now below the lower bound.
- ◐
Bitcoin could meltdown to $10,000 unless it reclaims and holds $75,000; before the 2020-21 money pump Bitcoin hovered around $10,000 and may be reverting.
“Before the biggest money pump in history in 2020-21, Bitcoin hovered around $10,000, and it may be reverting”
Conditional meltdown-to-$10k unless reclaiming $75,000: BTC never reclaimed/held $75k (high since $82,814 only briefly) and slid from $68,854 to $58,000, but came nowhere near $10,000.
- ◐
Revised downside target: it is more likely for Bitcoin to decline to $28,000 than to plunge to $10,000 (softening his earlier $10,000 call after backlash).
“it is more likely for Bitcoin to decline to $28,000 than to plunge to $10,000”
Relative call ($28k more likely than $10k): BTC fell from $66,972 to $58,161 (low $58,000), continuing down but reaching neither $28,000 nor $10,000 — directionally aligned, target unmet.
- ✗
If volatility returns in 2026, Bitcoin may correct further to revisit the $50,000 pivot; only sustained unusually low equity volatility avoids it.
“if volatility returns this year, BTC may correct further to revisit the $50,000 pivot”
Called a correction to revisit the $50,000 pivot in 2026; window not yet elapsed but low_by_deadline only reached $58,000, never touching $50,000 — and as a $50k revisit it has not come true (PENDING-leaning but conditional; the $50k level was not reached).
- ✓
The widespread proliferation of ETFs and President Trump's shift to enthusiast marked the Bitcoin/crypto peak in 2025; base case is a Bitcoin/crypto bear market.
“Bitcoin/Cryptos Bear Market - Base case update: The widespread proliferation of ETFs and President Trump's shift to enthusiast from antagonist marked the Bitcoin/crypto peak in 2025. The decline of many bogus coins -- worth billions and tracking nothing -- to zero may signal a”
Called the 2025 peak and a bear market; BTC's high was $126,296 (in 2025) and price declined to $58,161 by mid-2026, down from $87,111 at the call — bear market confirmed.
- ◐
A path toward $10,000 Bitcoin: Saylor's 2020 arrival near $10,000 fueled the 10x, and the move may be reverting (first articulation of the $10k downside thesis).
“A Path Toward $10,000 Bitcoin - “We buy Bitcoin with money we can’t afford to lose.” Michael Saylor, at the Economic Club of Miami event last evening. I admire and respect Mr. Saylor, and it was his arrival in 2020 -- when Bitcoin traded near $10,000 -- that helped fuel the 10x”
Downside thesis: BTC fell from $87,854 (2025-12-16) to $58,161 by 2026-06-30 (low $58,000), a clear ~34% decline confirming the reversion direction, but nowhere near the $10,000 destination he framed.
- ✓
A short-term Bitcoin rise to $150,000 in the 2024 cycle is unlikely / a long shot, citing divergent weakness vs the S&P 500 and gold and the risk of short-term deflation.
“factors that could make Bitcoin's projected surge to $150,000 difficult ... the potential rise to $150,000 was a long shot”
Called a near-term surge to $150,000 a long shot from $67,317; BTC peaked at $126,296 and never reached $150K, so the surge indeed did not materialize.
- ✗
Bitcoin may approach $100,000 in 4Q2021 as debt-ceiling concerns favor the crypto's adoption.
“#Bitcoin may be entering a unique phase for a 4Q price rise as markets gain trust in the coding that defines the crypto's supply. The debt-ceiling drama may work against managers that avoid allocations to Bitcoin.”
BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000.
- ✗
Bitcoin is on a path toward $100,000 in 2021 with a halving-driven supply cut supporting price appreciation.
“Ethereum in 2021 Is Bitcoin Guidance for $100,000: Flippening? If #Bitcoin were to catch up to #Ethereum's performance this year, the No. 1 crypto's price would approach $100,000. Though we see Bitcoin on that path, there appears little can stop the process of Ethereum flippening”
BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000.
- ✗
Bitcoin reaching $100,000 is a 'matter of time'; McGlone repeatedly stated Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of 2021 and continued to stand by the $100k target after the 2022 crash.
“McGlone repeatedly stated that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of 2021”
BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000.
- ✗
Bitcoin has a bullish path to $100,000 supported by declining post-halving supply.
“Bitcoin $100,000 Has Bullish Ace Up Its Sleeve: Declining Supply -- This year follows a cut in Bitcoin supply, making the price more likely to appreciate if past patterns hold.”
BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000.
- ✗
Bitcoin has backed up and has a path to $100,000 as its bull market resumes.
“#Bitcoin has backed up for reasons that support an extended bull market and a path to $100K. A bit hot in April, a primary factor cited for the crypto's correction -- excessive energy use -- represents the strength of the world's largest decentralized network, and getting greener”
BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000.
- ✓
Bitcoin is more likely to reach $50,000 than to retrace to its old highs of about $20,000; his macro forecast envisions Bitcoin reaching $100,000 per coin by 2025.
“reaching the $50k milestone is significantly more likely, rather than the alternative of dipping to the previous BTC records of around $20,000 ... his macro forecast envisions bitcoin reaching $100,000 per coin by 2025”
BTC traded as high as $69,000 in [2021-01-07..2022-04-07], reaching the $50,000 target.
- ✓
His macro forecast envisions Bitcoin reaching $100,000 per coin by 2025 (long-term target stated alongside the Jan 2021 $50k call).
“his macro forecast envisions bitcoin reaching $100,000 per coin by 2025”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2021-01-07..2025-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target.
Open (12)
- ⏳
Bitcoin reverts toward $10,000 in the second half of 2026, spurred by a modest US stock market drawdown.
“A Path Toward $10,000 Bitcoin, $3,400 Gold, $40 Crude Oil in 2H A modest drawdown in the US stock market may be all it takes to spur reversion toward $10,000 in Bitcoin, $3,400 an ounce for gold and $40 a barrel for WTI crude oil in 2H. That all three have declined in 2Q despite”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-30); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin is pulled by gravity toward $10,000 in the second half of 2026.
“Crude $40, Gold $3,400, Bitcoin $10,000: Gravity Pulls Crude oil is retreating from another failed attempt to stay above $100 a barrel in 1H, with reversion inklings toward the lower end of its roughly 20-year range near $40 in 2H. At the same time, typical gold retracement”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-30); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
A simple path leads Bitcoin toward $10,000 in the second half of 2026 if the stock market drops a bit and stays down.
“A Simple Path Towards $40 Crude $10,000 Bitcoin in 2H - Stock market drops a bit, typical for a midterm election year, and stays down awhile. https://t.co/MVUX7y3hQb #crudeoil #gold #bitcoin #stockmarket @Bloomberg”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-28); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin is heading toward a path of $10,000 as part of a broader macro reversion thesis.
“The Path Toward $10,000 Bitcoin Tether flippening of Ethereum may be sustained this time. It could be a matter of time before the dollar token flips Bitcoin, unless crypto's most enduring trend reverses: Tether's AUM surpassing everything.”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-26); 2031-06-26 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
If the US stock market drops in 2026 for a typical midterm election year, McGlone fully expects Bitcoin to be closer to $10,000 into year-end than where it is now; he does not expect Bitcoin above $100,000 again before the end of this cycle ('I expect Bitcoin's low-price cure to occur near $10,000').
“If the US stock market drops in 2026 for a typical midterm election year, I fully expect Bitcoin to be closer to $10,000 into year-end than where it is now”
Conditional year-end-2026 $10k-ward call; deadline 2026-12-31 open with BTC at $63,599, far from $10k.
- ⏳
Bitcoin is on a path to $10,000 as Tether has flipped Ether and the dollar token may next flip Bitcoin itself.
“The Path to $10,000 Bitcoin: Tether Has Flippened Ether - Bitcoin Is Next The US dollar, via the Tether stablecoin, is now the No. 2 cryptocurrency. The technology is awesome. Cryptos adopted the dollar as their base layer, invested in US Treasuries. What rational American”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-06); 2031-06-06 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin is reverting toward $10,000 in 2026, mirroring the pattern seen on the way down from $10,000 in 2018 when it ultimately fell to $3,000.
“What Stops Bitcoin Reversion Toward $10,000? Failing vs. Stocks On the way down from around $10,000 in 2018, Bitcoin appeared as if it could lose a zero. The low came near $3,000. From above $100,000 last year, I saw similar signs of reversion. Now, among millions of”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-01); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin may guide a reversion back toward $10,000 following the ETF launch that helped push it above $100,000.
“Bitcoin May be Guiding Risk Asset Reversion The launch of US Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 helped push the price above $100,000 and may guide reversion back toward $10,000.”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-04-09); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin is reverting back toward $10,000 in 2026, its most-traded price since 2017 futures launch.
“Potential $10,000 Bitcoin in 2026 Prove me wrong - stay above $75,000. Before the biggest money pump in history in 2020-21, Bitcoin hovered around $10,000, and it may be reverting. Roughly $10,000 is also the first-born crypto's most traded price since 2017, when futures were”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-04-05); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin may revert to $10,000 in 2026 as the crypto bubble bursts, revisiting its pre-pump price from 2020.
“The Bursting Crypto Bubble and Potential $10,000 Bitcoin in 2026 - Before the biggest money pump in history in 2020-21, Bitcoin hovered around $10,000, and it may be reverting. Roughly $10,000 is also the first-born crypto's most traded price since 2017, when futures were”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-04-02); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Typical pendulum cycles point to an enduring trough for Bitcoin near $50,000 (alongside crude $40, gasoline $2 and 1% core CPI) in 2026.
“CPI 1% in 2026? $40 Crude, $2 Gasoline, $50,000 Bitcoin Tracks - Typical pendulum cycles point to enduring troughs for crude oil near $40 a barrel, US daily gasoline average at $2 a gallon, Bitcoin at $50,000, and 1% in US CPI Urban Consumers Less Food & Energy (core CPI),”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2025-12-23); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will revert toward $50,000 as part of normal risk-asset mean reversion alongside a Bitcoin/gold cross of 13x.
“Just Some Normal Reversion? $50,000 Bitcoin, 13x Bitcoin/Gold - Extreme stock market complacency may suggest further downside in risk-assets, with Bitcoin leading the way. At about 20x on Dec. 1, the Bloomberg Economics' model shows the Bitcoin/gold cross fair value closer to 13x”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2025-12-01); 2027-12-01 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.