Matthew Sigel
Resolved (3)
- ✓
The Bitcoin four-year cycle will remain but play out in a more muted fashion going forward.
“Is it a four-year cycle over or do you think that it will remain? I lean towards remain, but in a more muted fashion. So that's kind of a wishy-washy answer, but it's been around for so long, I'm going to give it the benefit of the doubt.”
Cycle persisted but muted — the 2025 ATH $126,296 was only ~+83% over the 2021 $69k peak (a far smaller multiple than prior cycles), followed by a 2026 bear.
- ✗
Sigel's base case is that this cycle's blow-off top takes Bitcoin to roughly $180K (a 10x off the trough), with the second half of this year very positive.
“The previous smallest cycle ever for Bitcoin was 20x from the trough to the peak. So a 10x would put us around 180K. And that seems feasible to me... it doesn't seem crazy to haircut the rally by 50% and say 10X to 180. That's the blow off top and then reevaluate for next year.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $180,000.
- ✗
Bitcoin will see upside to around $180,000 this cycle, likely happening in 2025.
“Bitcoin troughed around 18,000. So I see an upside to 180,000 this cycle. And I think that's likely to happen next year. So my base case is something around 180K for next year.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $180,000.
Open (3)
- ⏳
Matthew Siegel of VanEck predicts Bitcoin will reach $1 million over the next several years, possibly within five years.
“Bitcoin going up for us is the base case. We think this asset is going to reach a million dollars over the next several years... Maybe half a decade, I think, is possible.”
Not reached yet (high $82,379 since 2026-05-11); 2031-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will reach roughly $450,000 per coin sometime after the next halving.
“About 50% of gold is used for industrial or jewelry purposes. So cut gold's market cap in half. And maybe that's our target for Bitcoin for the next cycle. That would imply roughly 450,000 per coin sometime after the next halving.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-12-16); 2027-06-16 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will reach $3 million per coin by 2050 in VanEck's long-term model.
“And we get to $3 million a coin by 2050, which would be about a 16% compound annual growth rate.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-12-16); 2050-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.