Matthew Mežinskis
Resolved (6)
- ✓
The four-year cycle is not broken and remains completely intact; in 2026 (the first year of the new cycle) Bitcoin is well below the power trend, consistent with the cycle continuing rather than a new ETF-driven regime.
“We're in 2026 here, and we're well below the power trend. So in my opinion, actually, the four-year cycle is completely intact, hasn't broken.”
Realized path fits the four-year cycle — $126,296 ATH (Oct 2025) then a 2026 drawdown to $57,718, with BTC below the power trend as claimed.
- ✗
The overall power-trend value for Bitcoin will be ~$125k by the end of the year (2025).
“it'll be a little bit higher of 60 59 000 right the trend itself the overall trend will be 125k uh and then getting in the 90th percentile which whether you do it a two different a couple different metrics. I think you get like 200k or 250k.”
BTC's high was only $94,641 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $125,000.
- ✓
Worst-case/lowest expected Bitcoin level by the end of 2025 (year-end) is around $57,000-$60,000 (power-curve lowest historical percentile), with the model trend itself at ~$125K.
“right now that suggests a lowest lowest level of 57 000 bitcoin by the end of the year it'll be a little bit higher of 60 59 000 right the trend itself the overall trend will be 125k”
BTC's low was $84,400, held at/above $57,000 (through 2025-12-31).
- ✗
Base case from the power trend: 2x to 3x the year-end trend (trend ~125k) by end of 2025 or the first couple months of 2026, i.e. roughly $250k to $375k Bitcoin.
“base case, what I'm thinking, two to three X, the trend by the end of the year or the first couple of months in the next year. That's 250K to 375K.”
$250k–$375k band by end-Feb 2026 never reached; high by deadline was only $126,296, well short of the predicted range.
- ✗
If Bitcoin does not get above the 80th percentile of the power trend (1.3x the trend, ~170k) by year end or the first couple months of next year, that would be reason to reconsider the four-year cycle.
“if it doesn't get above the 80th percentile, which by the way, is 1.3x the trend. And if we look at the end of 2025, the trend is 125k. So 1.3x is 170k. So if we don't get above 170k by year end, or into like the first couple months of next year, then I would say, okay time to rethink the idea of the four-year cycles”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-02-28 horizon; never reached $170,000.
- ✓
Bitcoin is not going to a million dollars tomorrow / in the near term; the power curve shows this stuff can go on much longer than people think, an evolution not a supernova.
“Bitcoin's not going to a million dollars tomorrow. Enjoy it. It's a great asset to protect you from your wealth.”
Guest's call is that BTC will NOT reach $1M in the near term, framed as a slow multi-year evolution. As of 2026-06-20 BTC is ~$63,556 and has never been within an order of magnitude of $1M. The near-term anti-$1M timing call is correct.
Open (2)
- ⏳
With pretty high confidence Bitcoin is going to reach about $550,000 (550), maybe even higher, off the back of another boom pulling the power-trend back up.
“But all it takes is another boom to pull the trend back up with pretty high confidence. We're going to be at 550, maybe even higher.”
Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-05); 2030-03-05 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will be worth millions of dollars in today's terms on the low end over the coming decades.
“it's going to be something like millions of dollars in today's terms, you know, on the low end, right? That's on the low end. So that's kind of how I'm seeing that aspect of it.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-04-18); 2028-04-18 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.