Marty Bent
Resolved (6)
- ◐
Bitcoin's 2026 bear-market cycle low is $60,000, keeping the pattern of each bottom exceeding the prior cycle's top.
“Bear market cycle lows: 2015: $152 2019: $3,200 2022: $15,500 2026: $60,000 Each bottom is higher than the last cycle's euphoric top. The chart says everything the timeline won't. Today's Brief also covers Iran collecting Hormuz tolls in USDT (yes, really), Blackstone gating”
BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-06-08..2026-07-06] — a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor.
- ✓
Bitcoin will not immediately recover to its all-time high, even now that Jane Street is being sued.
“I do not think that we are going to immediately recover to all-time highs now that they're being sued. No. But we'll see.”
Said BTC would NOT immediately recover to ATH (~$126,296); it only reached $82,814 then fell to $58,161 — never recovered, as predicted.
- ◐
Despite the ~25% drawdown from the all-time high, Bitcoin is not entering a traditional multi-year (three-year) bear market because there was no real blow-off top this cycle.
“I've been shitting on the super cycle theory for a while ... but I don't think we're entering like a traditional bear market like a three year bear market or something we just didn't really have a blow off top”
Claimed no traditional multi-year bear market; full 3-year window is undetermined, but BTC has since fallen $94,504→$58,161 (~54% off ATH) into a clear crypto winter — thesis under heavy pressure.
- ✗
With rates getting cut and the economy stimulated, Bitcoin is among the assets that are going to pump and is the best exposure.
“out of all the assets that are going to pump, I think it's pretty clear which one we believe you should all be getting exposure to, which is Bitcoin, most accessible. It's the best way to preserve your purchasing power.”
Called BTC the asset to pump at $115,540; after a brief $126,296 high it crashed to $58,161 (~50% down) — the pump thesis failed.
- ✓
Bitcoin is beginning to enter one of those phases that could end in some euphoria at some point later this year (2025).
“But I certainly get the sense, having been in Bitcoin for 12 years, that we're beginning to enter one of those phases that could end in some euphoria at some point later this year.”
Predicted euphoria later in 2025; BTC made a new ATH of $126,296 in Oct 2025 (high_by_deadline) — a euphoric/new-high phase occurred within the window.
- ✓
Bitcoin's price action over the last month has been a tight consolidation ('the coil'); the longer it coils the bigger the eventual pump. An incredible bullish signal for multi-cycle veterans — 'prepare accordingly.'
“The longer the coil the bigger the pump. Bitcoin's price action over the last month is boring for most but an incredible signal for those who have been around for a few cycles. Prepare accordingly.”
Bullish 'coil → pump' call at $108,958 played out — BTC subsequently pumped to a $126,296 ATH before the later decline.
Open (2)
- ⏳
Bitcoin will eventually flip gold's market cap, which at flat gold prices implies roughly $1.2 million per coin.
“I saw someone do the math that if gold stayed flat right now, parity would be $1.2 million per coin. We'll get there. We'll get there eventually.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-09-05); 2030-09-05 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will be a multi-hundred-trillion-dollar market, framed against a ~15-year horizon (today to 2040) of accelerated innovation.
“Flashback to 2010 when you could buy 10 #bitcoin for $3.48. It's crazy to think how far not only bitcoin, but the Internet has come in 15 years. This web interface looks ancient. The pace of innovation from today to 2040 is going to be even more accelerated and bitcoin will be a multi-hundred trillion dollar market. https://blossom.primal.net/af3c716407aa2c1501592e802fc0a638f440ed00bb1a69a1ce35d0405746f94c.mov”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-07-22); 2040-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.