Mark Yusko
Resolved (5)
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We're in crypto winter -- Bitcoin has entered a bear market; potential downside levels could fall into the high-$50,000s to low-$60,000s before a durable bottom forms. (Notes the latest cycle peak was not as far above fair value as prior cycles, so the correction may be milder.)
“We're in crypto winter ... potential downside levels could fall into the range around the high-$50,000s to low-$60,000s before a durable bottom forms.”
Called crypto winter with downside into high-$50ks/low-$60ks from $70,102; BTC bottomed at $58,000 and sits at $58,161 — squarely in the predicted band.
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After reaching fair value around $100,000, Bitcoin will surge to roughly $120,000-$150,000 by mid-2025 (a ~50% premium above fair value) before turning down.
“I figured we would blow through that, that six-digit number, and then humans would human ... [Yusko predicts Bitcoin will reach] $120,000 to $150,000 by mid-2025”
BTC reached $112,000 by the 2025-06-30 horizon — within 6.7% of $120,000 but short.
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We have another bear market starting mid-year 2025, and we enter crypto winter again.
“We have another bear market starting mid-year 2025.”
A bear market/crypto winter did materialize in H2 2025 — BTC peaked at $126,296 (Oct 2025) then fell to $74,421 by deadline and on to $58,161, within the 2025 window.
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Bitcoin will see a significant rise to $150,000 in 2024, peaking roughly nine months after the April 2024 halving (i.e., toward year-end), driven by the halving supply shock and spot-ETF demand. Fair value ~$75k post-halving, with BTC historically reaching ~2x fair value in a bull cycle.
“Bitcoin will see a significant rise to $150,000 in 2024 ... If there's more demand than supply, price has to rise ... Bitcoin is the king, it is the dominant token. It is a better form of gold”
BTC's high was only $108,389 through the 2024-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000.
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Bitcoin could reach $250,000 within the next five years, based on equivalence with gold's ~$4 trillion monetary market cap ('digital gold').
“Mark Yusko, the founder and CEO of investment-management firm Morgan Creek Capital Management, says bitcoin could reach $250,000 within the next five years. ... Yusko based his bitcoin target on equivalence with gold, which has a market capitalization of $4 trillion. If BTC reaches that level, each coin would be worth $250,000.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-05-10 horizon; never reached $250,000.
Open (1)
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Mark Yusko (asset manager, $2B AUM) states the Bitcoin bottom is in and that the worst of the selling has already occurred.
“He's saying that the bottom is in and that smart investors have already been buying. The worst of the selling has occurred. I totally agree. Because what happens in these cycles is when the price is below fair value, investors buy.”
Claim commits to Bitcoin having already formed its cycle bottom as of the episode date; resolves true if no new lower low is set after 2026-03-24 and Bitcoin goes on to establish a new all-time high.