Mark Moss
Resolved (3)
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Mark Moss predicted that the large Bitcoin drawdown many investors are expecting is probably not going to happen, given compressed volatility and sustained ETF/treasury company demand.
“I think that big drawdown that a lot of people are expecting is probably not going to happen. And I think another reason why I would also say that is, well, there's, I think there's two really good other reasons.”
Said the big drawdown 'probably won't happen' at $113,068; BTC then fell to $58,000/$58,161 — a ~49% drawdown, exactly what he ruled out.
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If Kamala Harris wins the election, Bitcoin will be around $100,000 to $150,000 by next year (2025).
“if Kamala wins, we're on the much more probably conservative side of the projection, which might be in the $100,000 range by next year, maybe a little higher, $150,000. But if Trump wins, I think we could be at the top end of that range, which again would be somewhere in that $400,000 range.”
Conditioned on 'if Kamala wins' — she lost, so the scenario never triggered; BTC did reach the $100k–$150k band ($126,296 high by 2025) but the predicted antecedent failed.
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If Trump wins the election and follows through on a Bitcoin reserve, Bitcoin could reach the $400,000 range by next year (2025).
“when we look at where Bitcoin could be by next year, I mean, we could be certainly at the top end of that range, maybe in the sounds insane, could be at the three $400,000 levels.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $400,000.