Lyn Alden
Resolved (20)
- ◐
Lynn Alden says Bitcoin is a buying opportunity, implying she expects the price to be higher in the future.
“Is Bitcoin a buying opportunity? I do. I think Bitcoin's a buying opportunity. I also think, um, you know, uh, Latin American banks, for example, uh, airlines, airports, I think these things don't necessarily bounce back quickly.”
From $67,292 BTC spiked to $82,814 (a real buying-opportunity payoff) before falling to $58,161; mixed, currently below entry with no firm deadline.
- ✓
The four-year Bitcoin cycle is no longer a fundamental law of nature, but cycles still exist; the recent move felt muted because retail participation never fully returned. Does not expect this bear market to be as long as previous ones because the preceding bull market itself was not very strong.
“The four-year Bitcoin cycle is no longer a law of nature, but cycles still exist ... This one played out very differently it felt muted for one simple reason retail participation never fully returned ... I don't expect it to be as long of a bear market.”
Bear-market premise realized: BTC fell from a ~$126k high to $58,161 (from $66,968 at the call), a clear bear move; duration claim aside, the directional/cyclical read held.
- ✓
Alden expects the broader crypto space's overvalued market cap and brand drag to weigh Bitcoin down for a period of time.
“I think if anything, they are weighing on kind of the quote unquote brand of Bitcoin. That's going to weigh it down probably for a period of time. There's still something like a trillion dollars in crypto market cap that I think is overvalued.”
Predicted crypto-drag would weigh BTC down 'for a period' from $67,467; BTC fell to $58,161 (low $58,000) since.
- ✗
No one is owed a bull market; we haven't hit euphoric levels in this cycle, therefore there is less of a reason to expect a kind of major capitulation. Markets rarely deliver the extremes investors prepare for.
“We haven't hit euphoric levels in this cycle; therefore, there is less of a reason to expect a kind of major capitulation. ... People get in their mindset where they are owed a bull market. No one is owed a bull market.”
Claimed less reason for major capitulation; from $92,914 (2025-11-18) BTC fell ~37% to $58,000 (~54% off the $126k high) — a major capitulation did occur.
- ✓
Bitcoin will be back into the six figures (>= $100k) in 2026.
“in treasury companies, too heavily in altcoins, or they are too heavily in Bitcoin in the sense that their expectations don't match reality. I do expect that, you know, in 2026, we'll be back into the six figures. And whether it's 2026 or 2027, I think we'll be seeing new all-time highs, most likely. There's no particular reason to believe that there's a four-year cycle intact. We haven't hit euphoric levels this cycle. Therefore, there's less of a reason to expect kind of a”
BTC traded as high as $97,964 in [2025-11-18..2026-07-06], reaching the $100,000 target (within 2.0% — near-miss counted).
- ✗
It's a healthy bull market, in my opinion; now that bitcoin is a $2T+ network it's normal for it to move like a more liquid asset, and it's still up ~8x from the 2022 low.
“It's a healthy bull market, imo. And now that bitcoin is a $2T+ network, it's normal for it to move like a more liquid asset should. And it's still up like 8x from the 2022 low. The S&P 500 is up less than 2x. nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzp9m7d7fwgqyzkchl3k353ftejdnxvjrrf2wyfx66yg9av4mwmgp5qqs24cg9mhnf9nwv0d4gzdr8ssmg2q6h5get7y306w8vd9575mk4c4ctmz2xe ”
'Healthy bull market' at $117,970 topped near $126,296 then reversed ~54% to $58,000; the bull he described ended shortly after.
- ✓
My guess is that we end up higher at the end of the year than we are now, at least; before the tariff 'kerfuffle' I would have had a higher price target, but there is still a good chance Bitcoin reclaims $100,000 before year-end 2025.
“My guess is that we end up higher at the end of the year than we are now, at least. ... Before all this tariff kerfuffle, I would have had a higher price target.”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2025-04-17..2025-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target.
- ✓
Bitcoin will end 2025 above its current price (~$84,950 on the day of the interview).
“My guess is that we end up higher at the end of the year than we are now, at least”
Predicted higher than ~$84,950 by year-end 2025; BTC was ~$87,111 at 2025-12-29, above the entry.
- ✓
There is a 'good chance' Bitcoin surpasses the $100,000 mark in 2025.
“Alden said there is a 'good chance' Bitcoin reclaims this price [$100,000] before year-end”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2025-04-17..2025-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target.
- ◐
Bitcoin will probably be higher 12 months from now than it is today.
“I generally expect Bitcoin to probably be higher 12 months from now than it is now, obviously no guarantees. But that's kind of my base case at the current time.”
12-month window elapsed; from $88,771 BTC reached $126,296 but low_by_deadline was $74,421, so the deadline-point price straddles entry and isn't clearly higher.
- ✓
Remains 'fairly constructive' on Bitcoin's outlook for 2025, anticipating a more pro-liquidity environment as the Fed potentially eases; cautioned against expecting imminent sharp price increases.
“Alden ... remains 'fairly constructive' on Bitcoin's outlook for 2025, anticipating a more pro-liquidity environment as the Federal Reserve potentially eases monetary policy.”
Constructive-on-2025 call vindicated: BTC rose from $60,383 to a high of $126,296 within the 2025 window.
- ✓
Bitcoin will be bullish in 2025, driven by rising global liquidity, with no strong directional view for the rest of 2024.
“I do think as we look out to 2025, I'm pretty bullish. I don't really have a strong opinion for the remainder of this year... since I expect probably global liquidity to go higher in 2025, and given all the other characteristics you see about Bitcoin at the time, I'm pretty bullish.”
Bullish-2025 call confirmed: BTC rose from $59,453 to a 2025 high of $126,296.
- ✗
Bitcoin could rally as high as $200,000 before the end of 2025; BTC is in the very early stages of its structural bull run with no signs of distribution from long-term holders.
“BTC is in the very early stages of its structural bull run ... So far, we've not really seen any sign of distribution. ... Bitcoin could rally to as high as $200,000 before the end of 2025.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000.
- ✗
Hopes to see Bitcoin reach $200,000 within the next two years; $100,000 would be a 'disappointing' outcome for this bull market, and price predictions ranging between $150,000 and $500,000 are all 'entirely reasonable.'
“$100,000 would be a 'disappointing' outcome ... price predictions ranging between $150,000 and $500,000 are all 'entirely reasonable.' ... The range for what it could be is based on so many things that are hard to judge.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-01-03 horizon; never reached $200,000.
- ✓
$100,000 would be a 'disappointing' outcome for this bull market cycle.
“$100,000 would be a 'disappointing' outcome”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2024-01-03..2026-01-03], reaching the $100,000 target.
- ✓
Bitcoin is dead right now — it fell 70%. Let's check back in 2-3 years during the next rising liquidity cycle and PMI cycle (i.e. expects a recovery in the next liquidity/PMI upcycle, roughly 2024-2025).
“Bitcoin is dead right now. It fell 70%. Let's check back in 2-3 years during the next rising liquidity cycle and PMI cycle.”
Recovery in the next liquidity/PMI upcycle materialized: from the $15,760 'dead' level BTC recovered to $126,296 by 2024-2025.
- ✓
With the rate-of-change of Fed hawkishness nearly behind us, there's a rising argument for the Bitcoin bottom to perhaps be in.
“I think the rate-of-change of hawkishness is nearly behind us now, but not the absolute level obviously. If so, imo there's a rising argument for gold to catch more of a bid, and for perhaps the bitcoin bottom to be in for example. Scarce things with no profits to worry about.”
Bottom-is-in call held: from $21,300 the only deeper low was $15,460 (Nov 2022), after which BTC rose to $126,296.
- ✓
Remains strategically (long-term) bullish on Bitcoin while explicitly agnostic about price direction over the next three months, mid-crash at ~$44k.
“And so in terms of the next three months or so, I don’t have a firm opinion either way about Bitcoin’s move. I remain basically strategically bullish while being pretty agnostic about near-term price action at this time.”
Strategic-bullish stance vindicated — from ~$36,732 BTC reached $69k (Nov 2021) and later $126,296 (Oct 2025); she made no near-term call.
- ✓
Lyn Alden would not be surprised to see Bitcoin well over $50,000 in 2021.
“And so I wouldn't be surprised to see, you know, well over 50,000 this year. You hear some some of these really high targets and it is hard to put those aside.”
BTC traded as high as $69,000 in [2021-01-29..2021-12-31], reaching the $50,000 target.
- ✓
Base case is a blow-off top followed by a correction that is smaller in percentage terms than the previous cycle's.
“My base case would be that that would be smaller than the previous percent-wise. I do think there would be probably some correction, but I don’t know.”
Blow-off top $69k (Nov 2021) then a ~77% correction to $15,460 (Nov 2022) — narrowly smaller than the prior cycle's ~84%, as the base case claimed.
Open (3)
- ⏳
The four-year Bitcoin cycle is dead; Bitcoin's 2025 stagnation relates to liquidity and capital rotation rather than the halving cycle. We haven't hit euphoric levels in this cycle, therefore there is less reason to expect a major capitulation. Expects Bitcoin to reclaim $100,000 by 2026, with potential new all-time highs in 2026 or 2027.
“Why Bitcoin's stagnation has more to do with liquidity and capital rotation than the halving cycle ... and why the four-year Bitcoin cycle is dead.”
'Reclaim $100k by 2026, new ATH 2026/2027'; high so far $97,964 (no $100k reclaim), windows not elapsed.
- ⏳
Lyn Alden expects Bitcoin to have the best performance of any major asset class over the next five to ten years.
“I do think that Bitcoin is, you know, if you look back five years from now, it'll probably have had the best performance of that group, I'd expect, probably 10 years as well.”
Best-performing major asset over 5-10 years; deadline ~2030-2035 not elapsed.
- ⏳
Bitcoin has a reasonable shot of hitting $1 million by 2035 (though she is wary of the call being repeated too loudly).
“I think bitcoin has a reasonable shot of hitting $1 million by 2035, but the more people that say it, the more I'm like, "meh, chill out folks".”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2022-11-22); 2035-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.