Luke Gromen
Resolved (6)
- ✓
Bitcoin could be stuck/suppressed in a frustration zone of roughly $58K to $72K (via derivatives expansion, the way gold has been managed); said partly tongue-in-cheek.
“I think the way they would do it is the expansion of derivatives, the way they've done it with gold historically.”
Since 2026-06-06 call BTC stayed confined to the stated ~$58K-$72K zone (low $58,000, high $67,264, current $58,161).
- ✓
Bitcoin will fall further from current levels; he expects to buy back the Bitcoin he sold at cheaper prices before policymakers respond with liquidity.
“I thought they would be quicker with the response and they haven't been and I don't think they're going to be. So my view is that I'll be able to buy back the Bitcoin I sold uh cheaper. Maybe I'll be wrong.”
From $88,640 (Dec 21 2025) BTC fell further to $57,718 (Jul 1 2026), so buying back cheaper than late-2025 was achievable.
- ✓
Bitcoin is acting as a liquidity/volatility warning signal and is weak because liquidity is tightening; it will not function as a true neutral reserve asset 'for the next six months'.
“Bitcoin's telling you volatility's coming in soon and maybe we've already seen it starting.”
Six-month 'volatility coming' weakness call from 2025-11-18 ($92,914) played out — BTC fell to $58,000 / current $58,161 within the window.
- ◐
Luke Gromen is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term but bullish long term.
“Luke, very, very bearish in the short-term, bullish long-term.”
Short-term-bearish call from 2025-04-07 ($79,140) failed (BTC rallied to $126,296); long-term-bullish leg now underwater at $58,161 — mixed.
- ◐
Bitcoin will rise significantly as it begins to 'run the deficits' alongside gold in the global monetary rebalancing.
“I think before long, Bitcoin's going to start to run the deficits. And as that happens, you're going to see gold up big, Bitcoin up big, dollar down against the yuan in particular, big.”
From $83,174 (2025-04-03) BTC did rise big to $126,296, but round-tripped below entry to $58,161; open-ended 'up big' thesis only partly realized.
- ✗
The stock-to-flow-model-dictated post-cycle pullback (historically 60-80%) will be much less severe than in prior cycles, and best case is skipped entirely, because US fiscal insolvency forces continued Fed liquidity.
“my gut tells me that at the very least, that suggests that the stock to flow model dictated pullback will be much less severe than it has been in prior cycles and best case just skips over them entirely. […] basically you won’t get as big of one or you might not get one at all because of what has happened to the fiscal situation.”
The post-cycle pullback was ~77% ($69k Nov 2021 -> $15,460 Nov 2022) — fully comparable to prior cycles, not 'much less severe' or skipped.
Open (4)
- ⏳
Luke Groman predicts that capital rotating out of Bitcoin into AI and SpaceX is temporary and Bitcoin is where that capital goes next.
“Luke's base case, stocks go up in big dollar terms and down in Bitcoin terms, which means in a world where AI wins, Bitcoin still wins harder. Signal 2, the capital rotation into SpaceX and AI is temporary. Bitcoin is where it goes next.”
BTC recaptures the AI/SpaceX-rotating capital once the rotation reverses; conditional, no deadline, undetermined (BTC $63,063 -> $57,718 since).
- ⏳
Bitcoin looks weak enough that a move toward the $40,000 range in 2026 is possible; trimming Bitcoin exposure in favor of gold and equities.
“"A move toward the $40,000 range in 2026 is possible," Gromen said on the RiskReversal podcast.”
Possible move toward $40k in 2026; deadline 2026-12-31 not elapsed, low so far $57,718.
- ⏳
Over time, all else equal, Bitcoin probably wins.
“We've got exponential functions in two different directions happening. And that means it's going to happen like way, way faster than we think. I think over time, all else equal, Bitcoin probably wins.”
[unresolvable] Hedged and open-ended ('over time... probably wins') with no target, comparator, or deadline — no falsifiable content.
- ⏳
Bitcoin could deliver roughly 6X returns over the next six years (toward ~2030) as investors sell bonds and rotate into hard assets; headline framed this as 'Bitcoin at $420k?'
“Gromen is not ruling out 6X returns for Bitcoin in the next six years as investors sell bonds and buy assets that hold value.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-06-14); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.