Lawrence Lepard
Resolved (5)
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Lepard hopes Bitcoin reaches $1 million in the current year (2025).
“I love Samson and I hope we go to 1 million this year.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $1,000,000.
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Bitcoin will be higher in a month and much higher in six months.
“I kind of see the sky as the limit for both of these assets uh I expect they'll be higher in a month and I expect to be much higher in six months”
Made 2024-03-14 at $71,365; one-month/six-month windows elapsed — BTC was lower near both checkpoints (mid-2024 traded ~$58k-65k, e.g. low_since $49,050) before later highs, so 'much higher in six months' did not hold.
- ✓
Bitcoin is at new all-time highs and will go much higher.
“this is why bitcoin bitcoin is at new all-time highs and i expect it's going to go much higher”
Open-ended 'go much higher' from $71,365; BTC subsequently made new ATHs reaching $126,296.
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Within the same Oct 2022 interview Lepard named ~$200,000 as the next macro top / cycle peak for Bitcoin (before a subsequent ~70% drawdown).
“The next macro top for Bitcoin should be up to $200,000, followed by another 70% drawdown.”
BTC's high was only $109,358 through the 2025-04-16 horizon; never reached $200,000.
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In Oct 2022 (BTC ~$19,600) Lepard said '$14,000 has become a popular downside target' that he shares, and that he would 'back up the truck' at that price.
“$14,000 has become a popular downside target [that he shares], stating he would 'back up the truck' at that price level.”
Shared a $14,000 downside target (2022-10-16, $19,264); BTC's cycle low was $15,460 and never reached $14,000.
Open (17)
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When Bitcoin gets into the next upswing phase, it goes much higher than the last cycle — to roughly $180k, $200k, or $240k.
“seven years ago that we're only gonna have 50 drawdowns i'd have bit your hand up for it so i guess like we can't complain about this we're moving in the right direction i mean if if 60 is the new 15 you know all right i can live with that because i know what that means when we do get into the upswing phase that we're going to 180 or 200 or 240 or something. It's going to be much higher than it was the last time around. So here we are. Yeah, Bitcoin will continue to win. But ”
Not reached yet (high $65,553 since 2026-06-22); 2028-12-22 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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The $40k level is gone as a floor; BTC may briefly wick into the $50k range before recovering.
“Agree. I think low end of Power Law model holds. 40k long gone, maybe a brief wick to a 50 something handle.”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-20); 2027-03-20 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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After BTC's ~50% drop from its all-time high, Lepard said 'We're either at or within spitting distance of a bottom' and 'I'm quite convinced that the thesis isn't broken and that the next run-up will take us to $200,000,' targeting it 'within the next year or two.'
“We're either at or within spitting distance of a bottom ... I'm quite convinced that the thesis isn't broken and that the next run-up will take us to $200,000 ... sometime within the next year or two, for sure.”
'At/near a bottom' + $200k within 1-2 years (2026-06-09, $61,686); BTC since made a new low at $58,000 but the $200k long-horizon window is still open.
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Lepard reiterated high confidence Bitcoin reaches $200,000, framing current ~$70k prices as a great entry, and forecasting a systemic 'breaking point' within 12-18 months driven by renewed Fed money printing.
“If you can buy Bitcoin at $70,000, that is great. ... [he expresses] high confidence that Bitcoin reaches $200,000 ... the system faces a breaking point within 12-18 months.”
Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-27); 2027-09-27 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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Bitcoin will wake up and go from ~$90k to ~$270k (3x) within six to twelve months as the debasement/big print arrives.
“and then bitcoin followed the flag and i i kind of expect the same thing this time gold's doing its thing it's moving it says the debasement is coming the debasement will come gold will keep running and then at some point as the debasement comes and the money flows in bitcoin is going to wake up and go from you know 90 to 270 or you know 3x easily in my view so is it tomorrow no i mean i i have that as within six to six to twelve months i guess but i i could be wrong i mean m”
Not reached yet (high $91,147 since 2026-01-22); 2027-01-22 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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This cycle takes Bitcoin to roughly $200,000-$250,000.
“I bought them. Do you want a seat on the lifeboat, or do you want to stay on the Titanic? I think this cycle takes us to kind of 200, 250 in Bitcoin. I'm quite certain that Bitcoin will be a million dollars. What I'm not certain of is how much will a gallon of gasoline cost when Bitcoin's a million dollars.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-09-22); 2028-03-22 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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Lepard believes Bitcoin will break above the power law model to the upside as Gresham's law dynamics take hold.
“I use the power law as my base worst case model because I think we'll easily do that because we've done that historically. There's 97% correlation. But I think we'll break that to the upside very clearly as the Gresham's law piece of it ki”
BTC breaks power-law model to the upside (2025-01-29, $103,747) — multi-year/cycle thesis with no deadline; BTC hit $126,296 ATH but is now $58,161, undetermined over its long horizon.
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Lepard believes Bitcoin will reach prices that blow people away in the next 20 years, going up forever due to fixed supply.
“it's going to go to numbers that are going to blow people away. And 20 years from now, it's going to be very obvious who owned Bitcoin and who didn't.”
20-year horizon ('20 years from now') has not elapsed since the 2025-01-29 call; outcome undetermined.
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Lepard believes Bitcoin will reach $1 million per coin, framing it as a clear inevitability if it continues its compounding trajectory.
“if in six years, it's at a million, are you going to experience regret that you didn't buy it at 100,000? And my guess is the answer is yes, because anything that does”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-01-29); 2029-01-28 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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'I fully expect Bitcoin's going to go to US$200,000' in the 'next couple of years' (alongside $5,000 gold), said on the sidelines of the New Orleans Investment Conference.
“I fully expect Bitcoin's going to go to US$200,000 ... in the next couple of years.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-12-12); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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When things break (bond market loses confidence), Bitcoin will go to $150K easily.
“I mean, I think, you know, when things break, you know, gold's going to go through 3000 and Bitcoin's going to go to 150, you know, easily in my view.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-10-05); 2029-10-05 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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Bitcoin will ultimately become a multi-million-dollar-per-coin asset.
“everybody needs to think long term and because long term I'm quite confident that this is going to be a multi-million dollar per coin asset”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-03-14); 2029-03-14 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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Bitcoin will climb through $100k, $400k, $1M, $4M, then $10M over roughly a 20-year time frame.
“these coins will be you know a hundred thousand then they'll be 400 then there'll be a million then there'll be four million then there'll be 10 million you know and and and the time frame on all of that is probably 20 years”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-03-14); 2044-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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Bitcoiners will be wealthy when these coins are worth a million dollars a coin.
“bitcoiners are going to be wealthy when these coins are worth a million dollars a coin”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-03-14); 2030-03-14 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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Lepard predicts Bitcoin will eventually reach $10 million per coin.
“You know, there are 21 million of these suckers and there's 8 billion people. These things are going to $10 million a coin. Not fingers crossed. It's just happening. It's math, man.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-05-05); 2028-05-05 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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Bitcoin progression: 'I think we'll hit $100,000. Then I think we'll reach $1 million, and ... ultimately $10 million per coin,' tied to a US dollar collapse Lepard expects 'within the next decade.'
“I think we'll hit $100,000. Then I think we'll reach $1 million, and [...] ultimately $10 million per coin. ... [the dollar would collapse] within the next decade.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-04-11); 2033-04-11 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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Asked whether Bitcoin could reach $2 million, Lepard replied 'Yeah, easily, easily,' with a timeframe of 'five or six years.' He also called for a next macro top near $200,000 followed by a ~70% drawdown, and said he believes Bitcoin will go up 100X.
“'Yeah, easily, easily' he replied when asked if Bitcoin could reach $2 million, with a timeframe of 'five or six years'. ... 'I personally believe Bitcoin's going to go up 100X.' The next cycle peak should reach approximately $200,000, followed by a 70% drawdown.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2022-10-16); 2028-10-16 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.