Lark Davis
Resolved (4)
- ✗
Market sentiment and frustration look like the kind seen closer to market bottoms than at hot times in the market; Davis indicates the crypto market is close to / nearing a bottom.
“it's the kind of sentiment and frustration that you tend to see closer to market bottoms than at, of course, hot times in the market, right?”
Called sentiment near a market bottom (2026-02-09, $70,102); BTC bounced to $82,814 then fell to a new low of $58,000, below his level — bottom was not in.
- ✗
Either the 4-year cycle is dead, or we've just entered a bear market; given the macro backdrop and how the market has evolved, Davis leans toward the four-year cycle being dead (not a bear market).
“Either the 4-year cycle is dead, or we've just entered a bear market. Given the macro backdrop and how this market has evolved, I'm leaning toward the former...”
Leaned toward '4-year cycle is dead, not a bear market' (2025-11-20, $86,537), but BTC fell to $58,161 — exactly the bear market he discounted.
- ✓
If Bitcoin keeps sliding, the most likely landing/retest zone is $108,000-$112,000 (downside warning made when BTC was ~$118K).
“Analyst Lark Davis flagged $108K-$112K as a potential retest zone if bitcoin keeps sliding.”
Flagged $108K-$112K retest zone if BTC slides (2025-08-17, $117,489); BTC subsequently fell through that band on its way down to $58,000.
- ✗
Bitcoin's inverse head-and-shoulders breakout projects a target exceeding $150,000, aligning with the 2.618 Fibonacci extension (~$155,665).
“the pattern's projected target exceeds $150,000 and aligns with the 2.618 Fibonacci extension level ... $155,665, which nearly matches the projected breakout target from the pattern.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-04-28 horizon; never reached $150,000.
Open (3)
- ⏳
Bitcoin will compound at roughly a 30% annual growth rate going forward ("the 30% CAGR that we think Bitcoin's going to have") — far above the ~3% Strategy needs to service its dividends.
“Strategy can still pay those dividends. If Bitcoin goes up just 3% annually, less than inflation and well below the 30% kagger that we think Bitcoin's going to have, it's less than a savings account. Gez, then they can pay the”
30% CAGR 'going forward' from $63,580; multi-year horizon not elapsed.
- ⏳
The historical 200-week-MA / oversold-weekly-RSI bottom playbook (2015, 2018 style) is more likely to play out than the bears' "$40k BTC in October" scenario — 2026 lacks the systemic-collapse leverage that made 2022 the outlier, so the ~$60k zone is likely the buying zone; $63k is the weekly-close line to reclaim.
“history do its work. It has a stronger case to be made in 2026 than the bears want to acknowledge because they're arguing, "Well, this is the 2022 situation, not 2015, not 2018." The line is $63,000.”
~$60k buying zone vs a $40k-by-October scenario; deadline 2026 not elapsed (low so far $57,718).
- ⏳
Bitcoin could go to $150K this cycle, driven largely by the spot ETFs, though investors should not anchor to a rigid price target and should ladder out ("don't buy forever").
“Bitcoin Could Go 'To $150K,' Says Crypto Veteran Lark Davis ... 'It doesn't mean the super cycle is here,' Davis cautioned regarding Bitcoin ETF inflows.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-02-02); 2026-08-02 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.