Ki Young Ju
Resolved (9)
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The current Bitcoin bear market will be relatively mild ("cute") compared to previous ones.
“This Bitcoin bear market will be cute”
'Bear market will be cute' (2026-01-09, $90,515) — BTC has since fallen ~36% to $58,161 (~54% off ATH), substantial and still deepening, not clearly mild; no deadline, ongoing.
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Bitcoin cycle theory is dead. My predictions were based on it - buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds. Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we thought.
“#Bitcoin cycle theory is dead. My predictions were based on it—buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds. Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we”
'Cycle theory is dead' (2025-07-24, $118,397) is undercut by the subsequent fairly traditional ~54% drawdown from the $126,296 top down to $58,161.
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Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong. Bitcoin selling pressure is easing, and massive inflows are coming through ETFs.
“Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong. #Bitcoin selling pressure is easing, and massive inflows are coming through ETFs.”
Said selling pressure easing / inflows coming on 2025-05-08 at $103,253; BTC then climbed to a new ATH of $126,296, the predicted continued upside.
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Bitcoin will keep moving within a wide range and not break above $100K.
“After I said the bull cycle was over, #Bitcoin dropped 10%—but now it’s 10% above where it was when I made that call. I still think we’re moving within a wide range. If it breaks above $100K, I’ll gladly admit I was wrong. Until then, I’m keeping an eye on the data for a few”
BTC rose to $126,296 in [2025-04-23..2026-04-23], above the $100,000 ceiling.
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Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action. The on-chain realized cap has stalled, signaling no fresh capital inflows; without new liquidity to offset heavy selling, this is a bearish signal.
“#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action.”
Called bull cycle over / 6-12mo bearish on 2025-03-17 at $84,011, but BTC rallied to a fresh ATH of $126,296 within the window (he himself recanted 2mo later).
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This will be the longest Bitcoin bull run in history, pending another month of on-chain data to rule out a bear market.
“#Bitcoin on-chain indicators are at the bull-bear boundary. I expect this to be the longest bull run in history, but I could be wrong. We need at least another month of data to confirm whether we’re entering a bear market. If demand doesn’t recover, indicators may fully signal a https://t.co/4iHbuitW4o”
The bull run did continue to a $126,296 ATH (Oct 2025), but 'longest in history' is convention-dependent and not verifiable from the price path.
- ✓
Within a few months Bitcoin will be back above $100K and sub-$100K prices will be missed.
“In a few months, you'll miss the moment when #Bitcoin is below $100K. https://t.co/W2dd8PyN18”
BTC fell as low as $72,859 in [2025-02-03..2026-02-03], reaching the $100,000 downside target.
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The Bitcoin bull market is late-stage but still has room to grow, with the run extending another couple of quarters.
“We’re in the late stage of the #Bitcoin bull market, but I believe there’s still room for growth. I’d say we’re in the early distribution phase, as new retail investors are entering. Trump’s global promotional impact could extend this bull run for another couple of quarters.”
From $102,563 (Jan 26 2025) the bull run extended and set a $126,296 ATH (Oct 6 2025) — 'room to grow' delivered.
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This Bitcoin bull cycle might turn out to be the longest ever. New liquidity sources are steadily fueling the market, and more are waiting to be unlocked.
“This Bitcoin bull cycle might turn out to be the longest ever. New liquidity sources are steadily fueling the market, and more are waiting to be unlocked.”
Not the longest-ever bull cycle — BTC topped at $126,296 and rolled into a bear, down to $58,161 (-40% from the $96,942 call).
Open (5)
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Once profit-taking cascades, Bitcoin investors' PnL typically falls for about 18 months. Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.
“Once profit-taking cascades, Bitcoin investors' PnL typically falls for about 18 months. Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
Bear market until early 2027; deadline 2027-03-31 not elapsed.
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The bear market that began in October 2025 could last until early 2027 based on historical PnL cycles.
“Once profit-taking cascades, Bitcoin investors' PnL typically falls for about 18 months. Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027. The trend only changes when unrealized profits rise and realized profits fall. We're not there yet.”
Bear market until early 2027; deadline 2027 not elapsed.
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If Strategy keeps holding its 650K BTC this cycle, Bitcoin will not repeat a 2022-style -65% drawdown; downside would be smaller and look like a broad sideways range.
“If Strategy holds its 650K BTC this cycle (or sells only a little), we would not see another -65% drawdown like in 2022. We are about -25% from ATH now, and even if a bear cycle comes, the downside would likely be smaller and look more like a broad sideways range. Long-term https://t.co/71HBg0UDs7”
Holding so far — a -65% drawdown from the $126,296 ATH would be ~$44k, and the 2026 bear bottomed near $58k (about -54%) through June 2026; still open while the cycle plays out.
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Bitcoin will eventually absorb gold's ~$20T market cap, up from ~$1.5T.
“Too many tariff experts on X playing 6D chess. Uncertainty fuels safe-haven demand. Gold is up 11% since Trump’s comeback, #Bitcoin down 25%. Bad news: BTC isn’t digital gold yet. Good news: It’ll eat gold’s $20T cap. It's just $1.5T now.”
Absorbing gold's ~$20T cap implies ~$1M/BTC 'eventually'; BTC's cap remains far below gold and the long horizon has not elapsed.
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Based on cumulative capital flowing into the Bitcoin market, the current upper limit (price ceiling) appears to be $135,000, with a 2024 price target of $112,000. 'Stay long-term bullish, but be cautious with leverage if you're a trader.'
“Please note that this doesn't mean we aren't getting corrections. As I mentioned earlier, the futures perp market is overleveraged. Stay long-term bullish, but be cautious with leverage if you're a trader.”
BTC's high was $126,296, stayed at/below $135,000 (through 2026-07-06).