Ki Young Ju
Resolved (5)
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The current Bitcoin bear market will be relatively mild ("cute") compared to previous ones.
“This Bitcoin bear market will be cute”
'Bear market will be cute' (2026-01-09, $90,515) — BTC has since fallen ~36% to $58,161 (~54% off ATH), substantial and still deepening, not clearly mild; no deadline, ongoing.
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Bitcoin cycle theory is dead. My predictions were based on it - buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds. Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we thought.
“#Bitcoin cycle theory is dead. My predictions were based on it—buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds. Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we”
'Cycle theory is dead' (2025-07-24, $118,397) is undercut by the subsequent fairly traditional ~54% drawdown from the $126,296 top down to $58,161.
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Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong. Bitcoin selling pressure is easing, and massive inflows are coming through ETFs.
“Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong. #Bitcoin selling pressure is easing, and massive inflows are coming through ETFs.”
Said selling pressure easing / inflows coming on 2025-05-08 at $103,253; BTC then climbed to a new ATH of $126,296, the predicted continued upside.
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Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action. The on-chain realized cap has stalled, signaling no fresh capital inflows; without new liquidity to offset heavy selling, this is a bearish signal.
“#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action.”
Called bull cycle over / 6-12mo bearish on 2025-03-17 at $84,011, but BTC rallied to a fresh ATH of $126,296 within the window (he himself recanted 2mo later).
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This Bitcoin bull cycle might turn out to be the longest ever. New liquidity sources are steadily fueling the market, and more are waiting to be unlocked.
“This Bitcoin bull cycle might turn out to be the longest ever. New liquidity sources are steadily fueling the market, and more are waiting to be unlocked.”
Not the longest-ever bull cycle — BTC topped at $126,296 and rolled into a bear, down to $58,161 (-40% from the $96,942 call).
Open (3)
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Once profit-taking cascades, Bitcoin investors' PnL typically falls for about 18 months. Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.
“Once profit-taking cascades, Bitcoin investors' PnL typically falls for about 18 months. Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
Bear market lasting until early 2027 — window (deadline 2027-03-31) still open as of 2026-06-30; BTC down from $73,771 to $58,161 so far, consistent but unresolved.
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The bear market that began in October 2025 could last until early 2027 based on historical PnL cycles.
“Once profit-taking cascades, Bitcoin investors' PnL typically falls for about 18 months. Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027. The trend only changes when unrealized profits rise and realized profits fall. We're not there yet.”
Bear market until early 2027 — deadline 2027 not elapsed; BTC fell from $73,367 to $58,161 so far, trend consistent but window open.
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Based on cumulative capital flowing into the Bitcoin market, the current upper limit (price ceiling) appears to be $135,000, with a 2024 price target of $112,000. 'Stay long-term bullish, but be cautious with leverage if you're a trader.'
“Please note that this doesn't mean we aren't getting corrections. As I mentioned earlier, the futures perp market is overleveraged. Stay long-term bullish, but be cautious with leverage if you're a trader.”
BTC's high was $126,296, stayed at/below $135,000 (through 2026-07-01).