Julian Brigden
Resolved (3)
- ✓
MSTR's premium 'was always insanity' and should revert to the long-term average of 1.2x; questions whether the excess is 'idiosyncratic or emblematic of excessive euphoria, not just in #bitcoin but across all markets,' with MSTR threatening the trendline of the whole advance. A bearish/caution call on the bitcoin-linked euphoria complex.
“paying a 5x premium was always insanity, and my view is that we should head back to the long-term average of 1.2 ... is MSTR just idiosyncratic or emblematic of excessive euphoria, not just in #bitcoin but across all markets?”
Euphoria/caution call at $103,869 (high only $107,482); BTC then crashed ~44% to $58,161.
- ◐
Breaking Bitcoin's yellow support line opens up a move to $72K.
“With talk of a 1987 #BlackMonday style drop, it is worth watching #XBT #Bitcoin as a canary in the coalmine. On the Asian open, we have broken the yellow support line, which opens up a move to $72k”
BTC fell to $74,421 by the 2026-01-06 horizon — within 3.4% of the $72,000 target but not reached.
- ◐
On Bitcoin: 'With rampant euphoria and extreme positioning, I think the risk is we in the banana skin zone. #bitcoin looks especially extended relative to other risk assets and recently that hasn't ended well.' A near-term bearish/caution call on BTC.
“With rampant euphoria and extreme positioning, I think the risk is we in the banana skin zone. #bitcoin looks especially extended relative to other risk assets and recently that hasn't ended well.”
Near-term caution at $94,506, but BTC first rallied ~34% to $126,296 before eventually crashing to $58,161 — wrong near-term, right eventually.
Open (1)
- ⏳
Bitcoin is falling and could reach $40K, implying further downside from current levels.
“While some investors hailed Saylor as a visionary, my view was that he was a snake oil salesman. Well, price is proving to be the arbitrator. #MSTR has crashed through its trendline, and with #Bitcoin falling, it's tough to pick a target. My guess is $50. 1.2 x #XBT at $40k.”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2025-11-20); 2026-08-20 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.