Joe Consorti
Resolved (9)
- ✓
Bitcoin is about to drop below $70,000.
“Bitcoin is about to go below $70,000 again. Everyone is panicking. Be like Lieutenant Dan. Act like you've been here before. Stay frosty 🫡”
BTC traded as high as $71,316 in [2026-06-02..2026-07-01], reaching the $70,000 target.
- ◐
Bitcoin has found its bottom; 60K was the cycle bottom.
“I certainly think so. Right. Like I've spoken about this a few times, but the balance of risks for me are more so on the side of Bitcoin has found its bottom. Whether or not that means we continue going lower remains to be seen. I think 60K was the cycle bottom. And the”
BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-05-27..2026-07-01] — a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor.
- ✗
Conditional technical call: reclaiming $83,000 would push BTC back above both its 200-day moving average and the ETF average cost basis, and surpassing that level could set the stage for a move toward $93,000.
“Consorti adds that reclaiming $83,000 would push Bitcoin back above both the 200-day moving average and the ETF average cost basis. He suggests that surpassing this level could set the stage for a move toward $93,000.”
Conditional reclaim of $83k never triggered (high since made only $82,450); BTC instead fell to $58,000, far from the $93k target.
- ✓
Bitcoin wants to reach $80,000 and may get there that same night.
“Bitcoin wants $80,000 badly. We may get it tonight.”
BTC traded as high as $79,496 in [2026-04-27..2026-04-27], reaching the $80,000 target (within 0.6% — near-miss counted).
- ◐
This is a really great entry point for asset prices including Bitcoin; Joe sees the current sell-off as a major mispricing (though he does not call it the absolute bottom).
“And for me, I think that's a big mispricing. And so that's why I think this is a really great entry point. Not to say that this is the bottom again, but I think this is a really great entry point for asset prices”
Entry at $70,102 rallied to $82,814 (~+18%, a profitable window) but is now underwater at $58,161; he explicitly disclaimed calling the bottom.
- ✗
Over the next several months, as Kevin Warsh approaches becoming Fed chair and the dollar weakens, all beaten-down risk assets including Bitcoin will begin a bottoming-out process.
“So to me, it's a major mispricing. I think the dollar goes weaker over the next several months. I think as we approach Warsh actually becoming Fed chair, you're going to start to see some of that weakness. And I think you're going to start to see a bottoming out process in all risk assets that have done poorly, software stocks, Bitcoin included, as we approach that date”
Predicted a bottoming-out process over the next several months from Feb 2026; instead BTC made new lows, falling from $70,102 to $58,000 by the window's end.
- ✓
Bitcoin will find its bottom first (around $60,000) and then begin moving higher ahead of equities; this is a great entry point that buyers will look back on favorably.
“Bitcoin as it historically has done it's going to find its bottom first and then begin moving higher first it might seem scary but ultimately you're going to look back on this time 10 years down the line five years down the line next cycle and say man I wish I had bought around that $60,000”
BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-02-09..2026-07-01], reaching the $60,000 downside target.
- ✓
Argued bitcoin was 'primed to explode' at the apex of a multi-month consolidation wedge and positioned to move higher, 'past new all-time highs and above $80,000,' if the bull market had begun.
“move higher, past new all-time highs and above $80,000”
Predicted move past new ATHs and above $80k from $70,542; BTC rallied to $126,296, clearing both.
- ✓
Made the case for $100,000 bitcoin in 2024, arguing it was 'not as absurd as it first sounds' and only ~2x from the price at the time.
“After a year of tumult followed by a year of choppy upward price action, we stand before you after a multi-month rally and present our case for why $100,000 bitcoin in 2024 is not as absurd as it first sounds. ... $100k Bitcoin Is Closer Than You Think. ... Only 2x from here now.”
BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2024-02-13..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target.
Open (6)
- ⏳
Bitcoin will bottom in the low 50s to high 40s this cycle rather than falling all the way to 40k.
“I'd like to revise up my estimate from the last video. I think we're probably going to bottom in the low 50s, high 40s, rather than visiting all the way down to 40k.”
Resolves against whether BTC's cycle low prints in the roughly $45k-$53k band versus reaching ~$40k or holding above the low 50s.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will find its final cycle low around October or November 2026.
“I tend to think that Bitcoin will probably find its final low around October or November.”
Resolves against whether BTC's lowest price of the cycle occurs in Oct-Nov 2026 versus earlier or later.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will ascend higher from the final low through year-end, with Q1 next year being the first breakout quarter of the next bull market.
“then begin ascending higher through the end of the year into January and Q1 of next year is really going to be the first breakout quarter, in my mind, for the next Bitcoin bull market.”
Resolves against whether BTC rises off its late-2026 low through year-end and breaks out to the upside in Q1 2027.
- ⏳
Twelve-month base case: Bitcoin is meaningfully above where it sits now; the open question is only whether there is a 'flush' first.
“Twelve months out, his base case is that Bitcoin is meaningfully above where it sits now. The open question, in his telling, is only whether we get a flush first.”
12-month base case (made $64,040, deadline 2027-06-03) still open; currently $58,161, high $67,416 — undetermined with window not elapsed.
- ⏳
If Bitcoin reclaims $83k it will then rally toward $93k.
“Reclaiming $83k would put us back above the 200DMA and the ETF average cost basis. Then it's off to the races to $93k... we'll see 🫡”
Not reached yet (high $82,450 since 2026-05-10); 2027-02-10 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
Joe assigns a pretty high probability to Bitcoin getting close to or making new all-time highs in 2026 (which would break the four-year-cycle narrative).
“Yeah, I mean, it'll be interesting what happens this year, because if Bitcoin, you know rallies from here has a good year maybe gets close to all-time highs on new all-time highs in 26 then that that does break this this cycle idea i think um i would still put that at a pretty high probability”
High probability of near/new ATHs by 2026-12-31; high by deadline so far $82,814 (far from ~$126k ATH), but the year-end window is still open.