Joe Consorti
Resolved (15)
- ✓
Bitcoin is about to drop below $70,000.
“Bitcoin is about to go below $70,000 again. Everyone is panicking. Be like Lieutenant Dan. Act like you've been here before. Stay frosty 🫡”
BTC traded as high as $71,316 in [2026-06-02..2026-07-06], reaching the $70,000 target.
- ✓
With Bitcoin (~$73k) having lost the short-term holder cost basis, true market mean and 200-day MA, the bear market is not over: the map points lower toward $65k and then the 200-week MA at ~$61.6k, and the summer will be rough and choppy.
“Bitcoin just lost those levels. The map points lower and the near term is probably going to be very rough. Now, let me reframe this entire thing because the question that almost everyone is asking is the wrong question. The”
From $73,367 BTC fell through $65k and the ~$61.6k 200-week MA to $57,718 (Jul 1 2026), exactly the mapped path.
- ◐
Bitcoin has found its bottom; 60K was the cycle bottom.
“I certainly think so. Right. Like I've spoken about this a few times, but the balance of risks for me are more so on the side of Bitcoin has found its bottom. Whether or not that means we continue going lower remains to be seen. I think 60K was the cycle bottom. And the”
BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-05-27..2026-07-06] — a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor.
- ✗
Conditional technical call: reclaiming $83,000 would push BTC back above both its 200-day moving average and the ETF average cost basis, and surpassing that level could set the stage for a move toward $93,000.
“Consorti adds that reclaiming $83,000 would push Bitcoin back above both the 200-day moving average and the ETF average cost basis. He suggests that surpassing this level could set the stage for a move toward $93,000.”
Conditional reclaim of $83k never triggered (high since made only $82,450); BTC instead fell to $58,000, far from the $93k target.
- ✓
Bitcoin wants to reach $80,000 and may get there that same night.
“Bitcoin wants $80,000 badly. We may get it tonight.”
BTC traded as high as $79,496 in [2026-04-27..2026-04-27], reaching the $80,000 target (within 0.6% — near-miss counted).
- ◐
Bitcoin at $75,000 wants to keep moving up after a ~30% bounce off the lows.
“$75,000. Almost 30% up from the lows. $BTC wants up. Patience.”
From $73,934 BTC did keep rising ~+12% to $82,814 (May 6 2026), but then reversed to $57,718 and sits at $63,599 — below entry.
- ◐
This is a really great entry point for asset prices including Bitcoin; Joe sees the current sell-off as a major mispricing (though he does not call it the absolute bottom).
“And for me, I think that's a big mispricing. And so that's why I think this is a really great entry point. Not to say that this is the bottom again, but I think this is a really great entry point for asset prices”
Entry at $70,102 rallied to $82,814 (~+18%, a profitable window) but is now underwater at $58,161; he explicitly disclaimed calling the bottom.
- ✗
Over the next several months, as Kevin Warsh approaches becoming Fed chair and the dollar weakens, all beaten-down risk assets including Bitcoin will begin a bottoming-out process.
“So to me, it's a major mispricing. I think the dollar goes weaker over the next several months. I think as we approach Warsh actually becoming Fed chair, you're going to start to see some of that weakness. And I think you're going to start to see a bottoming out process in all risk assets that have done poorly, software stocks, Bitcoin included, as we approach that date”
Predicted a bottoming-out process over the next several months from Feb 2026; instead BTC made new lows, falling from $70,102 to $58,000 by the window's end.
- ✓
Bitcoin will find its bottom first (around $60,000) and then begin moving higher ahead of equities; this is a great entry point that buyers will look back on favorably.
“Bitcoin as it historically has done it's going to find its bottom first and then begin moving higher first it might seem scary but ultimately you're going to look back on this time 10 years down the line five years down the line next cycle and say man I wish I had bought around that $60,000”
BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-02-09..2026-07-06], reaching the $60,000 downside target.
- ✓
Bitcoin is about to break below its April 2025 low, opening the $70k-$60k range with the 200-week MA at $58k below that.
“Bitcoin is likely about to lose the April 2025 low. The next key range to watch is $70k to $60k from the summer of 2024. Beyond that, the 200-week moving average sits at $58k. Welcome to the pain zone 🫡 https://t.co/zqLE9DddZi”
From $78,667 BTC broke below the April-2025 low (~$74,421), hit $60,001 (Feb 6 2026) and reached the flagged ~$58k 200-week MA ($57,718, Jul 1 2026).
- ✓
Bitcoin will hit $100k imminently ('soon, probably today') on returning spot demand.
“The entire move from $90k to $97.5k has been driven by spot. Note the large clusters of spot volume yesterday evening and this morning + negative perp funding. Exactly what you want to see for a sustainable uptrend in BTC. Spot buyers are back. $100k soon, probably today. https://t.co/cE4RCVkem3”
BTC traded as high as $97,964 in [2026-01-14..2026-07-06], reaching the $100,000 target (within 2.0% — near-miss counted).
- ✗
Bitcoin is unlikely to go lower from ~$96k and will move higher as the bottom formation completes.
“Hard to envision lower bitcoin prices from here. No melt-up rally → no blow-off top and 70%+ bear market. Price action continues to paint the picture that we're nearing the end of this bottom formation. Higher.”
Instead of holding ~$96k, BTC topped $97,964 (Jan 14) then fell to a $75,644 low (Jan 31) and crashed to $62,182 (Feb 5 2026).
- ✗
A local bottom is forming in Bitcoin's drawdown (~$102k) as weak hands are shaken out.
“Bitcoin market sentiment is as poor as it was during the February-April drawdown. Local bottom is in the process of forming as we shake out the weak hands. Patience is a virtue. https://t.co/jGzG17DNZx”
No local bottom held at ~$102k — BTC broke below $100k the next day and fell to a $80,525 low by Nov 21 2025.
- ✓
Argued bitcoin was 'primed to explode' at the apex of a multi-month consolidation wedge and positioned to move higher, 'past new all-time highs and above $80,000,' if the bull market had begun.
“move higher, past new all-time highs and above $80,000”
Predicted move past new ATHs and above $80k from $70,542; BTC rallied to $126,296, clearing both.
- ✓
Made the case for $100,000 bitcoin in 2024, arguing it was 'not as absurd as it first sounds' and only ~2x from the price at the time.
“After a year of tumult followed by a year of choppy upward price action, we stand before you after a multi-month rally and present our case for why $100,000 bitcoin in 2024 is not as absurd as it first sounds. ... $100k Bitcoin Is Closer Than You Think. ... Only 2x from here now.”
BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2024-02-13..2024-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target.
Open (11)
- ⏳
Bitcoin will bottom in the low 50s to high 40s this cycle rather than falling all the way to 40k.
“I'd like to revise up my estimate from the last video. I think we're probably going to bottom in the low 50s, high 40s, rather than visiting all the way down to 40k.”
Cycle-bottom band ($45-53k) undetermined; low so far $57,718 (Jul 1 2026) sits above the cluster and the cycle horizon has not elapsed.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will find its final cycle low around October or November 2026.
“I tend to think that Bitcoin will probably find its final low around October or November.”
Oct-Nov 2026 final cycle low; deadline 2026-11-30 not elapsed.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will ascend higher from the final low through year-end, with Q1 next year being the first breakout quarter of the next bull market.
“then begin ascending higher through the end of the year into January and Q1 of next year is really going to be the first breakout quarter, in my mind, for the next Bitcoin bull market.”
Rise from a late-2026 low into a Q1-2027 breakout; deadline 2027 not elapsed.
- ⏳
The sub-$58.5k flush is the textbook signature of a Bitcoin bottom — record ETF-tourist capitulation plus ~45% of long-term holder supply in loss, a combination seen at every prior cycle bottom — so this is the floor of the bear market, not the road to $40k.
“time. The same way that the weakest hands always do. Record outflows from the people who arrived last is not a top signal. It is the textbook signature of a Bitcoin bottom. So, that's indicator number one, and it just fired. And we”
Cycle-floor call at ~$58k; the cycle horizon has not elapsed and the bottom is unconfirmed.
- ⏳
The Bitcoin bear-market bottom forms in the ~$49,000-$53,000 zone, where five independent on-chain bottoming models (realized price $53.4k, coin-time price $51.9k, LTH cost basis $49.7k, investor price and CVDD $48.9k) have converged into the tightest cluster in Bitcoin's history.
“into one tight band beneath the price, the bottom has been sitting inside that band almost every single time. The cluster runs from roughly 49,000 to 53,000. That is the zone. In all likelihood, that's the floor underneath”
$49-53k bottom zone; deadline 2026, low so far $57,718 (above the cluster), window open.
- ⏳
Bitcoin (~$64k) is walking down a staircase: it will likely lose the 200-week MA at ~$61k and step down to its realized price around $54k / the low $50Ks (video titled "$50K Is Next"), with the long-term holder cost basis near $39k-$48k as the worst-case basement.
“is Bitcoin's realized price. That's just the average price that every Bitcoin on the entire network was last bought at. That sits at about $54,000 right now. And here's the piece of history you have to burn into your memory. In every prior”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-05); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin's status as the only red asset in a sea of green — driven by the AI IPO capital drain — will all change later this summer 2026, when Bitcoin finds its bottom and capital rotates back.
“capital event in 25 years and it has nothing to do with Bitcoin and it explains why Bitcoin is the only red asset in a sea of green and why that's all going to change later this summer. So, by the end of this video, you're”
'Bottom later this summer 2026'; deadline 2026-09-30 not elapsed.
- ⏳
Twelve-month base case: Bitcoin is meaningfully above where it sits now; the open question is only whether there is a 'flush' first.
“Twelve months out, his base case is that Bitcoin is meaningfully above where it sits now. The open question, in his telling, is only whether we get a flush first.”
12-month base case; deadline 2027-06-03 not elapsed.
- ⏳
If Bitcoin reclaims $83k it will then rally toward $93k.
“Reclaiming $83k would put us back above the 200DMA and the ETF average cost basis. Then it's off to the races to $93k... we'll see 🫡”
Not reached yet (high $82,450 since 2026-05-10); 2027-02-10 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Joe assigns a pretty high probability to Bitcoin getting close to or making new all-time highs in 2026 (which would break the four-year-cycle narrative).
“Yeah, I mean, it'll be interesting what happens this year, because if Bitcoin, you know rallies from here has a good year maybe gets close to all-time highs on new all-time highs in 26 then that that does break this this cycle idea i think um i would still put that at a pretty high probability”
Near/new ATH in 2026; deadline 2026-12-31 not elapsed, high so far $82,814 (May 6 2026).
- ⏳
Bitcoin's next stop is the 200-day MA near $106k, with new all-time highs likely soon after a close above it.
“Bitcoin reclaimed the 50-day moving average last week and bounced off it on Monday. The setup here mirrors April's recovery. Next stop is the 200-day moving average at ~$106k. A close above the 200DMA, and new all-time highs likely soon follow. https://t.co/UDn81XlkQA”
Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2026-01-14); 2027-01-14 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.