Joe Carlasare
Resolved (16)
- ✗
Carlasare signals a bullish outlook, noting bears cannot push Bitcoin meaningfully below $60K despite heavy bearish sentiment.
“Bear euphoria. capitulation all over the timeline. Folks even calling for Saylor to be in jail. And they can't push bitcoin much under 60k - the same level it was at in February. Bullish. 🚀”
Claimed bears 'can't push bitcoin much under 60k'; within days low fell to $58,056 and current sits at $58,161 — BTC was pushed below 60k.
- ✗
Bitcoin will blow through the 200-day moving average, ending four-year cycle narratives.
“When we finally blow through the 200 MA, we can finally put this "historically" / "four year cycle bro" nonsense to bed. Coming soon 🍿”
Predicted blowing through the 200MA 'coming soon'; instead BTC rolled over from $75,826 to the $58,161 area, dropping further below the 200MA rather than breaking up over it.
- ✓
Bitcoin will reclaim its 200-day moving average at approximately $83,400.
“In 2021-2022, Bitcoin lost the 200 day moving average and never recovered it until the bottom was in. In Nov of 2025, Bitcoin lost its 200 day moving average. It will reclaim it at $83,400.”
BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-05-05..2026-07-01], reaching the $83,400 target (within 0.7% — near-miss counted).
- ✗
The bottom is in and Bitcoin will hit a new ATH in 2026.
“One of the largest geopolitical risks in recent years and bitcoin has held firmly above the February lows. The bottom is in. New ATH in 2026.”
'The bottom is in' — but BTC subsequently fell to a $58,000 low (well below the $71,798 make price), so the bottom was not in; the paired new-ATH-in-2026 hope is contradicted by the crash.
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The Nov 21, 2025 bottom holds and Bitcoin makes new all-time highs in 2026.
“Still looking like the November 21, 2025 bottom on BTC is going to hold. 🔥 Just a sloppy bottom. New ATHs in 2026”
Claimed the Nov 21, 2025 bottom would hold; BTC has since fallen to a $58,000 low, far below the $84,111 make price — the November 2025 bottom did not hold.
- ◐
Bitcoin is unlikely to fall to $50,000-$60,000 because there is very little excess or tourist money left in the market.
“That's why I'm skeptical of 50, 60,000. So I want to unpack the idea of running this economy hot because I do agree with you that they're going to have to do that.”
BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-01-13..2026-07-01] — a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor.
- ◐
Bitcoin's bottom is already in and a major drawdown to $50,000-$60,000 is unlikely given the lack of excess in the market.
“you think the bottom's in. I do. Yeah. I mean, so the big thing you got to think about markets is that moves are relative, and they're also very much mean reverting.”
BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-01-13..2026-07-01] — a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor.
- ✓
Bitcoin will recover the $100k level much faster than people expect.
“100k Bitcoin will be back a lot faster than people expect”
BTC traded as high as $97,964 in [2026-01-05..2026-07-01], reaching the $100,000 target (within 2.0% — near-miss counted).
- ✓
Bitcoin will take out the $100K mark in the new year (2026), and once it does can move very quickly to a new all-time high.
“I think that we were likely to take out that a hundred K mark in the new year. And once you do, I think we can move very quickly to a new all-time high”
BTC traded as high as $97,964 in [2025-12-30..2026-07-01], reaching the $100,000 target (within 2.0% — near-miss counted).
- ✗
The ~$80k area marks the cycle bottom for Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin has been in the same range after bottoming for a month while folks are getting liquidated with de gen positions every 12 hours. The longer we hold here, the more like the 80k was the bottom.”
BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-12-19..2026-07-01], below the $80,000 floor.
- ✗
Bitcoin will make new all-time highs after the Nov 21, 2025 bottom.
“.@JamesWynnReal has been bearish since we bottomed on 11-21-25. All we are doing is putting in higher highs and higher lows while he’s missed an 11k move off the bottom. New ATHs coming.”
Claimed higher highs/higher lows and 'new ATHs coming' from the 11-21-25 bottom; instead high only reached $97,964 (below ~$126k ATH) and structure broke down, crashing to $58,000.
- ✓
Bitcoin's move back over $100k will be swift.
“The move back over 100k will be swift No mercy for those who fell for the bear trap and are offsides thoughts and prayers”
BTC traded as high as $97,964 in [2025-11-19..2026-07-01], reaching the $100,000 target (within 2.0% — near-miss counted).
- ✗
Joe Carlasare expects Bitcoin to reach $130k by year-end 2025, a target he has held all year.
“No, my target all year long has been 130. And everybody's like super bare, man. You suck. And you're nailing it.”
BTC's high was only $116,410 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $130,000.
- ✓
Joe Carlasare expects Bitcoin to surge in November 2025 following resolution of the government shutdown and a G7/Trump summit.
“I still think we could get a surge. I think once the government shutdown gets cleared up, which it should. And once this whole G-Trump meeting summit gets resolved on November 1st, I expect November to be up-vember in lieu of October not being up-tober.”
Predicted a November 2025 surge; high by the 2025-11-30 deadline reached $116,410 from $107,586 at make — November was 'up-vember' as called.
- ✗
Bitcoin price target of $130k by the end of 2025 (a target he says he held 'all year long' since January 2025). He publicly admitted on 2025-12-31 that the call was wrong, as BTC topped at ~$126k.
“my target all year long has been 130 and everybody like super bare man”
BTC's high was only $116,410 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $130,000.
- ✗
Endorsed an 'extended cycle' with Bitcoin all-time highs arriving in the first half of 2026 (Q2 2026); described BTC as structurally undervalued and called it 'an absolutely exciting time to be long risk assets across the board, but especially with Bitcoin.'
“I mean, listen, I think this is an absolutely exciting time to be long risk assets across the board, but especially with Bitcoin... [on extended cycle with all-time highs in first half of 2026] Yeah, that sounds about right.”
ATH in first half of 2026 (deadline 2026-06-30, now elapsed); the $126,296 ATH was set before Jan 2026 (post-Jan-13 high was only $97,964) and H1 2026 ended in a crash to $58,161 — no new ATH in the window.
Open (12)
- ⏳
Bitcoin is going to ATHs in 2026 while most of the market is positioned bearish.
“Bitcoin is going to ATHs in 2026 while the majority of the market is positioned bearish. Beautiful. 🔥”
ATHs in 2026 (deadline end-2026, window open). High to date $82,814 is well below the ~$126,296 ATH and price has dropped to $58,161 — undetermined within the remaining window.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in 2026.
“New ATH for Bitcoin in 2026”
New ATH in 2026 (deadline end-2026, not yet elapsed). High so far is only $82,814 vs the ~$126,296 ATH, and price is back at $58,161 — far from a new high but the 2026 window remains open.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will make a new all-time high in 2026.
“I posted earlier about an ATH in Bitcoin in 2026. I’ve gotten 40+ DMs telling me some variation of an expression that I’m an idiot. Interpret that however you want.”
New ATH in 2026 (deadline end-2026, window open). Peak to date $82,814 is below the ~$126,296 ATH and price sits at $58,161 — undetermined within the remaining window.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will set a new all-time high in 2026.
“New ATH for Bitcoin in 2026”
New ATH in 2026 (deadline end-2026, window open). High so far $82,814 vs ~$126,296 ATH; price now $58,161 — far off but the 2026 window has not elapsed.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will set a new all-time high in 2026.
“New ATH on Bitcoin in 2026”
New ATH in 2026 (deadline end-2026, window open). High since make is $82,814, far below the ~$126,296 ATH, with price back at $58,161 — open and undetermined.
- ⏳
Bitcoin can/will make a new all-time high in 2026 ('this year'); dismisses the idea it can't, calling a new ATH 'electric' and currently 'discounted by the market.'
“I think Bitcoin can make a new all time high this year. I don't know why people are convinced it can't.”
New ATH 'this year' (2026); window open until 2026-12-31. ATH (~$126,296) not exceeded — high_by_deadline only $97,964 — but the year is not over.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will go higher in 2026 and beyond as the four-year cycle theory dies and institutional adoption broadens.
“once Bitcoin truly is understood by the retail masses as sort of an institutional asset, I think it's going to send us much higher this year and in the next year.”
Window runs to 2027 ('this year and the next year, and beyond'); it has not elapsed. BTC has fallen to $58,161 from $95,384 at make, so 'higher in 2026' is currently failing, but the multi-year window stays open — undetermined.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will make a new all-time high in 2026.
“Highest price on bitcoin since mid November. Almost 60 days since the bottom. New ATH in 2026 coming”
Calls a new ATH (above ~$126k) in 2026; high by deadline so far only $97,964 and price is back at $58,161, but the 2026 window runs through year-end and hasn't elapsed.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will trade above $130,000 in 2026.
“My target since January was 130k by the end of the year. We won’t hit that. And we only made it to 126k. Close, but no cigar. So I fully admit I was wrong... However, nothing has changed my view that we will go above 130k next”
Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-12-31); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will make a new all-time high in 2026, and do it convincingly.
“We're going to sell off 80%. I think Bitcoin can make a new all-time high in 2026, and I think we can do it convincingly. That would probably be one of the most bullish developments, I think, in the history of Bitcoin.”
New ATH in 2026 'convincingly'; deadline 2026-12-31 not elapsed. ATH (~$126,296) not yet exceeded (high_by_deadline $97,964) but the window remains open.
- ⏳
The four-year halving boom-bust Bitcoin cycle is dead/a meme; Bitcoin will track the broader risk-asset and macro regime rather than a predictable four-year cycle.
“this sort of predictable, like four year boom bust cycle that we have to go on that's coincident with the halving. I think that's kind of always been sort of more of a meme than anything else.”
Forward-looking structural call that the predictable 4-year cycle no longer governs price. As of 2026-06-20 BTC is in a drawdown (low $59,073 on 2026-06-05, ~$63,556 today) after ATH $126,296 on 2025-10-06; whether this constitutes a classic post-halving cycle top/bust vs. macro-driven move is not yet resolvable. PENDING.
- ⏳
Joe Carlasare believes Bitcoin will not experience the traditional 80% post-cycle decline, representing a new era for the asset.
“I don't think this is going to be the traditional boom bust 80% decline. I think you'll absolutely see drawdowns. You'll see painful ones for all of us that they'll hold through. But I actually think that we've entered a new era.”
Open-ended 'new era / no 80% decline' floor claim. From the ~$126,296 ATH the drawdown to the $58,000 low is ~54%, not the traditional 80% (~$25k) — the claim still holds and no deadline has elapsed.