Joe Carlasare
Resolved (26)
- ✗
Carlasare signals a bullish outlook, noting bears cannot push Bitcoin meaningfully below $60K despite heavy bearish sentiment.
“Bear euphoria. capitulation all over the timeline. Folks even calling for Saylor to be in jail. And they can't push bitcoin much under 60k - the same level it was at in February. Bullish. 🚀”
Claimed bears 'can't push bitcoin much under 60k'; within days low fell to $58,056 and current sits at $58,161 — BTC was pushed below 60k.
- ✗
Bitcoin will blow through the 200-day moving average, ending four-year cycle narratives.
“When we finally blow through the 200 MA, we can finally put this "historically" / "four year cycle bro" nonsense to bed. Coming soon 🍿”
Predicted blowing through the 200MA 'coming soon'; instead BTC rolled over from $75,826 to the $58,161 area, dropping further below the 200MA rather than breaking up over it.
- ✓
Bitcoin will reclaim its 200-day moving average at approximately $83,400.
“In 2021-2022, Bitcoin lost the 200 day moving average and never recovered it until the bottom was in. In Nov of 2025, Bitcoin lost its 200 day moving average. It will reclaim it at $83,400.”
BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-05-05..2026-07-06], reaching the $83,400 target (within 0.7% — near-miss counted).
- ✗
The bottom is in and Bitcoin will hit a new ATH in 2026.
“One of the largest geopolitical risks in recent years and bitcoin has held firmly above the February lows. The bottom is in. New ATH in 2026.”
'The bottom is in' — but BTC subsequently fell to a $58,000 low (well below the $71,798 make price), so the bottom was not in; the paired new-ATH-in-2026 hope is contradicted by the crash.
- ◐
Bitcoin is unlikely to fall to $50,000-$60,000 because there is very little excess or tourist money left in the market.
“That's why I'm skeptical of 50, 60,000. So I want to unpack the idea of running this economy hot because I do agree with you that they're going to have to do that.”
BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-01-13..2026-07-06] — a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor.
- ◐
Bitcoin's bottom is already in and a major drawdown to $50,000-$60,000 is unlikely given the lack of excess in the market.
“you think the bottom's in. I do. Yeah. I mean, so the big thing you got to think about markets is that moves are relative, and they're also very much mean reverting.”
BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-01-13..2026-07-06] — a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor.
- ✓
Bitcoin will recover the $100k level much faster than people expect.
“100k Bitcoin will be back a lot faster than people expect”
BTC traded as high as $97,964 in [2026-01-05..2026-07-06], reaching the $100,000 target (within 2.0% — near-miss counted).
- ✓
Bitcoin will take out the $100K mark in the new year (2026), and once it does can move very quickly to a new all-time high.
“I think that we were likely to take out that a hundred K mark in the new year. And once you do, I think we can move very quickly to a new all-time high”
BTC traded as high as $97,964 in [2025-12-30..2026-07-06], reaching the $100,000 target (within 2.0% — near-miss counted).
- ✗
The ~$80k area marks the cycle bottom for Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin has been in the same range after bottoming for a month while folks are getting liquidated with de gen positions every 12 hours. The longer we hold here, the more like the 80k was the bottom.”
BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-12-19..2026-07-06], below the $80,000 floor.
- ✗
Bitcoin will make new all-time highs after the Nov 21, 2025 bottom.
“.@JamesWynnReal has been bearish since we bottomed on 11-21-25. All we are doing is putting in higher highs and higher lows while he’s missed an 11k move off the bottom. New ATHs coming.”
Claimed higher highs/higher lows and 'new ATHs coming' from the 11-21-25 bottom; instead high only reached $97,964 (below ~$126k ATH) and structure broke down, crashing to $58,000.
- ✓
Bitcoin's move back over $100k will be swift.
“The move back over 100k will be swift No mercy for those who fell for the bear trap and are offsides thoughts and prayers”
BTC traded as high as $97,964 in [2025-11-19..2026-07-06], reaching the $100,000 target (within 2.0% — near-miss counted).
- ✗
Joe Carlasare expects Bitcoin to reach $130k by year-end 2025, a target he has held all year.
“No, my target all year long has been 130. And everybody's like super bare, man. You suck. And you're nailing it.”
BTC's high was only $116,410 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $130,000.
- ✓
Joe Carlasare expects Bitcoin to surge in November 2025 following resolution of the government shutdown and a G7/Trump summit.
“I still think we could get a surge. I think once the government shutdown gets cleared up, which it should. And once this whole G-Trump meeting summit gets resolved on November 1st, I expect November to be up-vember in lieu of October not being up-tober.”
Predicted a November 2025 surge; high by the 2025-11-30 deadline reached $116,410 from $107,586 at make — November was 'up-vember' as called.
- ✗
Bitcoin gets to the ~$129k-$131k targets being discussed (his own standing target was $130k) by year-end 2025 / early Q1 2026.
“No, we’re going to get there guys. I’m really bullish here. Like, I honestly think this is awesome. Like, I’ve never felt sentiment this bad with the price where it’s at.”
BTC's high was only $116,410 through the 2026-03-31 horizon; never reached $130,000.
- ✗
Bitcoin price target of $130k by the end of 2025 (a target he says he held 'all year long' since January 2025). He publicly admitted on 2025-12-31 that the call was wrong, as BTC topped at ~$126k.
“my target all year long has been 130 and everybody like super bare man”
BTC's high was only $116,410 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $130,000.
- ✓
Bitcoin is going to break out above the ~$110k consolidation range and go higher.
“And the most interesting thing about it to me is that we know that when Bitcoin runs, it runs hard. And you had this whole year, basically we were just consolidating over the inauguration day high of, what was it, one 10, somewhere there. We’re going to break here and we’re going to go higher.”
From $118,810 (Jul 23 2025) BTC broke above the ~$110k range to a new ATH of $126,296 (Oct 6 2025).
- ✗
Bitcoin ends 2025 between $130k and $140k.
“I had the same target all year. I think we end the year between one 30 and one 40, but I also think we go a lot higher next year because to your point, I think the economy’s going to heat up.”
2025 peak was $126,296 (never touched $130k) and BTC closed 2025 at $87,498 — far outside the $130k-$140k band.
- ✗
Endorsed an 'extended cycle' with Bitcoin all-time highs arriving in the first half of 2026 (Q2 2026); described BTC as structurally undervalued and called it 'an absolutely exciting time to be long risk assets across the board, but especially with Bitcoin.'
“I mean, listen, I think this is an absolutely exciting time to be long risk assets across the board, but especially with Bitcoin... [on extended cycle with all-time highs in first half of 2026] Yeah, that sounds about right.”
ATH in first half of 2026 (deadline 2026-06-30, now elapsed); the $126,296 ATH was set before Jan 2026 (post-Jan-13 high was only $97,964) and H1 2026 ended in a crash to $58,161 — no new ATH in the window.
- ✓
The ~$83k pullback is a buying opportunity (he is buying) — the pessimism is unjustified and Bitcoin will get going again.
“I was buying Bitcoin, full disclosure, and I hadn’t bought some since I think the 40 to 50K range before, but I’ve been deploying capital and I’m excited. I don’t think the pessimism is justified. We still have a strong economy and eventually the president’s going to settle down and we’re going to get going again.”
Bought ~$86,878 (Mar 19 2025); BTC rallied to $126,296 ATH (Oct 6 2025), vindicating the 'buying opportunity' call.
- ✓
Bitcoin is going higher this cycle — people are far too bearish on where it is heading.
“And I think Bitcoin is when it gets going, it’s really going to get going. And I, I still believe that people are far too bearish on, on where Bitcoin is going this cycle.”
Higher this cycle confirmed: from $100,151 BTC rose to the $126,296 ATH (Oct 2025).
- ✓
No traditional 80% boom-bust decline this time — a new era with a milder correction (he floats ~50% rather than 60-70%).
“I don’t think this is going to be the traditional boom bust to 80 percent decline. I think you’ll absolutely see drawdowns. You’ll see painful ones for all of us that if they’ll hold through, but I actually think that we’ve entered a new era.”
Max drawdown ~54% ($126,296 → $57,717) matches his ~50% call and is far short of the 80% he dismissed.
- ◐
Expects 'epic' Bitcoin price appreciation over the next six to twelve months (through roughly Dec 2025).
“to me, the most fascinating thing to look at, aside from epic Bitcoin price, we’re going to all enjoy over the next six to 12 months is what’s going to go on with the consumer price inflation data.”
Entry $100,150 (2024-12-18); peaked +26% to $126,296 ATH (Oct 6 2025) but ended the window down ~15% at $85,460 (Dec 18 2025) — right direction yet 'epic' overstated and net-negative by deadline.
- ✓
Base case: Bitcoin reaches six figures in 2025.
“Any of you think that there’s a possibility that we go higher and in the six figures next year and then go higher the following year and then go higher the following year? Because that’s usually my base. I mean, when I think about it, that’s my base case.”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2024-10-02..2025-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target.
- ✓
Structurally long-term bullish on Bitcoin ('nothing but blue skies') despite near-term regulatory overhang holding back the price.
“obviously structurally long term there’s nothing but blue skies and being bullish for Bitcoin”
From $26,428 BTC rose ~4.8x to the $126,296 ATH (Oct 2025) — the structural long-term bullish call was vindicated.
- ◐
Bitcoin will go at least somewhat higher in the near term from the ~$23-24k August 2022 level.
“I suspect Jeff’s probably going to be right, at least for the near term, I think Bitcoin is going to at least go higher for a little bit here.”
Ended +17% higher at the 9-month horizon ($27,408, May 2023), but the near-term move was a 34% crash to $15,460 (Nov 2022), not higher.
- ✗
The Fed will pivot from a hiking cycle to a cutting cycle in 2022, and once it does the risk-on trade returns, with Bitcoin (alongside Ark and tech stocks) going higher.
“I think the Fed will pivot this year… And I think once the Fed pivots, that’s going to have the market say, “That’s it, the risk on trade is back. You can plow back into these things, Bitcoin, Ark, tech stocks, and they’re all going to go higher.”
No 2022 Fed pivot; BTC fell from $42,900 to a $16,530 year-end close (low $15,460, Nov 21 2022), so the pivot-driven rally never came.
Open (12)
- ⏳
Bitcoin is ready to explode higher from around $60,000, with the 200-day MA at $74k in view.
“bitcoin looks ready to explode higher. 200 day MA at 74k 👀”
Made at $63,580 (Jul 5 2026); the near-term 'explode higher' horizon (~9mo) has not elapsed.
- ⏳
Bitcoin is going to ATHs in 2026 while most of the market is positioned bearish.
“Bitcoin is going to ATHs in 2026 while the majority of the market is positioned bearish. Beautiful. 🔥”
ATHs in 2026 (deadline end-2026, window open). High to date $82,814 is well below the ~$126,296 ATH and price has dropped to $58,161 — undetermined within the remaining window.
- ⏳
Bitcoin makes a new all-time high (above the ~$126k Oct 2025 peak) in 2026, shattering the four-year-cycle myth.
“I think Bitcoin looks great. We’ve been 50 plus days where we haven’t taken out that bottom. We’ve set on November 22nd. I think Bitcoin can make a new all time hide this year. I don’t know why people are convinced it can’t.”
New ATH >$126,296 by 2026-12-31 not yet due; high so far only $97,964 (Jan 14 2026) and trending down to $57,718 — window still open.
- ⏳
Bitcoin can/will make a new all-time high in 2026 ('this year'); dismisses the idea it can't, calling a new ATH 'electric' and currently 'discounted by the market.'
“I think Bitcoin can make a new all time high this year. I don't know why people are convinced it can't.”
New-ATH-2026 window open; high so far $97,964 (Jan 14), below the $126,296 ATH.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will go higher in 2026 and beyond as the four-year cycle theory dies and institutional adoption broadens.
“once Bitcoin truly is understood by the retail masses as sort of an institutional asset, I think it's going to send us much higher this year and in the next year.”
Window to 2027 open; BTC down to $63,599 from $95,384 at make, 'higher' currently failing but window open.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will trade above $130,000 in 2026.
“My target since January was 130k by the end of the year. We won’t hit that. And we only made it to 126k. Close, but no cigar. So I fully admit I was wrong... However, nothing has changed my view that we will go above 130k next”
Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-12-31); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will make a new all-time high in 2026, and do it convincingly.
“We're going to sell off 80%. I think Bitcoin can make a new all-time high in 2026, and I think we can do it convincingly. That would probably be one of the most bullish developments, I think, in the history of Bitcoin.”
New-ATH-2026 window open to year-end; high so far $97,964, the $126,296 ATH not exceeded.
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The four-year halving boom-bust Bitcoin cycle is dead/a meme; Bitcoin will track the broader risk-asset and macro regime rather than a predictable four-year cycle.
“this sort of predictable, like four year boom bust cycle that we have to go on that's coincident with the halving. I think that's kind of always been sort of more of a meme than anything else.”
Cycle-death thesis; realized top+bust ($126,296 Oct 2025 → $57,717) is ambiguous vs a macro-driven move, window (to ~2028) open.
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Joe Carlasare believes Bitcoin will not experience the traditional 80% post-cycle decline, representing a new era for the asset.
“I don't think this is going to be the traditional boom bust 80% decline. I think you'll absolutely see drawdowns. You'll see painful ones for all of us that they'll hold through. But I actually think that we've entered a new era.”
Open-ended 'new era / no 80% decline' floor claim. From the ~$126,296 ATH the drawdown to the $58,000 low is ~54%, not the traditional 80% (~$25k) — the claim still holds and no deadline has elapsed.
- ⏳
Bitcoin keeps going higher in the following years (2026, 2027) without the 'guaranteed' 80% cycle drawdown this time.
“I think that people are screwed up from the collapse in the crypto markets, FTX institutional collapses in 2022. And they believe that the 80 percent drawdown is guaranteed. I don’t expect that this time.”
2026/2027 higher-each-year window open; no 80% bust so far (~54%), but 2026 is currently lower (~$63,599) — undetermined.
- ⏳
Current ~$50-60k Bitcoin prices are ridiculously cheap and will look like an obvious accumulation window a few years from now.
“I think you’re going to be looking back few years from now, I don’t know what the time of, I’ll just tell you, I just think down the line, you’re going to say, wow, I had months and months to accumulate in the sixties or 50, 000 area of Bitcoin. What was I doing? Not selling my chairs, you know, so to speak.”
BTC hit $126,296 (Oct 2025) making $50-60k look cheap, but retraced to $57,717 by Jul 2026; the 'few years from now' window is open.
- ⏳
A move toward UBI is a necessary, inevitable conclusion, and when it comes Bitcoin's price will appreciate probably beyond the panel's wildest bullish dreams (no timeframe given).
“to me, I look at it as a necessary inevitable conclusion that we move towards UBI. I think it’s already done. It’s just a question of how long before we have to move to that. And then I think bitcoin’s price is going to appreciate probably beyond all our wildest bullish dreams on this call.”
[unresolvable] Untimed and conditioned on a UBI shift that has not occurred; no falsifiable window to resolve against the price path.