Jesse Myers (Croesus)
Resolved (11)
- ✗
Oct 20, 2025, near the all-time high: 'Some people think the #Bitcoin bull market is over? Looks to me like it hasn't even started yet' - implying substantial further upside ahead.
“Bitcoin price divided by ounce of gold price. Some people think the #Bitcoin bull market is over? Looks to me like it hasn't even started yet.”
No substantial upside: from $110,568 BTC peaked at $116,410 then crashed ~47% to $58,161 — bull market was effectively over, not 'just starting.'
- ✓
His MIT presentation (given the day after the April 2024 halving), restated here: Bitcoin's post-halving price run would start ~6 months after the halving and 'really heat up' at ~9 months.
“The #Bitcoin halving was 8 months ago. I gave this presentation at MIT the day after the halving... Explaining why Bitcoin's price run would start at 6 months✅ and really heat up at ~9 months⌛️🚀 (Bookmark / retweet to keep handy for Christmas!🎄) https://t.co/3RoJXxR47C”
Price run heated up at the ~9-month mark as called: from $98,594 BTC ran to $109,358 by the Jan 2025 deadline.
- ◐
$100k is just the beginning for Bitcoin and price will continue to rise.
“$100k is just the beginning. Enjoy”
Rose from $98,746 to $126,296 ('beginning' looked right) but then collapsed to $58,161, below entry — 'continue to rise' ultimately failed.
- ✓
Late Nov 2024: 'Nobody asked me about #Bitcoin at Thanksgiving. Means the top is next year. Much higher.' - the cycle top would come in 2025 and at a much higher price than the ~$95k at the time.
“Nobody asked me about #Bitcoin at Thanksgiving. Means the top is next year. Much higher.”
Top came in 2025 and much higher: high by deadline $126,296 vs $97,491 at the call.
- ✓
Bitcoin bull market will continue through 2025 until early FOMO buyers reach euphoria, then top.
“2025 will continue that, until eventually early FOMOers feel euphoria. then we top”
Bull continued through 2025 to a higher top as called: high by deadline $126,296 (from $98,439), then it rolled over.
- ◐
Quoting his own March 2023 Once-in-a-Species call: 'Bitcoin's price could settle somewhere in the $30-45k range over the next year.' In Nov 2023 he confirms BTC is 'dead-center in that range.'
“Once-in-a-Species subscribers received this in March 2023... "Bitcoin’s price could settle somewhere in the $30-45k range over the next year." Looks like we're dead-center in that range now. See what this article predicts for next year too... https://t.co/zFJmHaUitC”
BTC was in the $30-45k band at the call ($36,707) and traded there through 2023, but blew past to $73,836 by the March 2024 window close — exceeded the range, not 'settled' in it.
- ✓
Bitcoin will NOT reach $100,000 before the 2024 halving (April 2024); six figures will only come AFTER the halving, as the market prices in the changed supply reality over the 12-18 months post-halving.
“Bitcoin won't reach $100,000 before the next halving ... the market will price in the changing reality during the 12-18 months after [the halving].”
BTC did NOT reach $100k before the April 2024 halving — high by deadline was only $73,836.
- ◐
Late Sept 2022: Bitcoin (dollar-strength-adjusted) 'sure looks like it's forming a bottom ... Looks a lot like early 2019' - calling a cycle bottom near the ~$19k level.
“This is BTCUSD*DXY, which normalizes BTC price vs. dollar strength. #Bitcoin sure looks like it's forming a bottom, in dollar-adjusted terms. Looks a lot like early 2019.”
Bottom-forming/recovery thesis broadly right (recovered to $31,444 by deadline), but the actual low was $15,460 — ~20% below the called ~$19k level.
- ✓
Bitcoin will 5x in the next 3 years; 'If Bitcoin does just ¼ what it did over the same time frame last halving cycle, Bitcoin will 5x between now and 2025. This would put Bitcoin at $100k/coin.' He anticipated 'that next peak will be at least $100k/Bitcoin.' (Written when BTC was ~$18.5k-$20k.)
“If Bitcoin does just ¼ what it did over the same time frame last halving cycle, Bitcoin will 5x between now and 2025. This would put Bitcoin at $100k/coin ... I'm anticipating that next peak will be at least $100k/Bitcoin.”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2022-09-22..2025-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target.
- ✗
Over the next three years Bitcoin will 5-10x, meaning $100-200k/coin. The $100k base case ('at least $100k') is captured separately; this records the upper end of the stated 3-year range, $200k.
“over the next three years Bitcoin will 5-10x, meaning $100-200k/coin”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000.
- ✗
Late Nov 2021, near the cycle high: 'this bull has a lot more to run' - adjusted for money printing the 2021 bull market still had significant upside ahead.
“#Bitcoin price divided by number of dollars in existence. Bottom this summer was just a retest of Dec 2017 value Bulk of 2021 was a massive consolidation, ripe for breakout Translation: adjusted for money printing, clear that this bull has a lot more to run”
It was the top, not 'more to run': from $56,988 BTC crashed to $15,460 in 2022, barely back to $59,250 by deadline.
Open (9)
- ⏳
Bitcoin will still be crashing to $120k in four years, sarcastically implying price will be much higher.
“In the depths of last bear market (<$20k), I longed to be back here ($58k) 4 years from now, maybe we'll be despondent as Bitcoin crashes to $120k”
Not reached yet (high $61,868 since 2026-06-25); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
Bitcoin is less than 1% of the way to its end-state price of $10 million per coin.
“BTC is still <1% of the way to end state ($10m / BTC)”
Not reached yet (high $78,124 since 2026-05-19); 2031-05-19 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
Bitcoin is at the start of a 2+ year bull market based on its Bitcoin/Gold RSI bouncing from an all-time-low oversold condition.
“Update: Bitcoin bounced out of oversold, rallying against Gold. Every time this has happened in Bitcoin's history, it was the start of a 2+ year bull market.”
'Start of a 2+ year bull market' claimed 2026-04-22 at $78,209; the 2+ year window is wide open (only ~2 months elapsed), high since just $82,814 and now $58,161 — undetermined.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will be bid to incredible heights as treasury companies channel global capital into it.
“There are only 2 possible outcomes: 1. @saylor runs out of capital looking to get 10-13% annual yield... when $450T+ of global capital is in similar instruments getting ~5% OR 2. #Bitcoin gets bid to incredible heights”
Open-ended long-run 'bid to incredible heights' thesis with no deadline; high since made only $89,210 vs made $84,513 and price has since fallen to $58,161, but the cycle/long window has not elapsed.
- ⏳
Jesse Myers argues Bitcoin's full potential valuation is $10 million per coin in today's dollars, based on Bitcoin capturing portions of the $900 trillion global asset market.
“This sounds crazy. And I get that. $10 million per Bitcoin is what this resulted in. And I think it's kind of conservative in its estimates. And that's crazy.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-11-08); 2028-11-08 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
$500k/coin is very possible for Bitcoin this decade (i.e., by the end of the 2020s).
“@cc_tankumo My view is that Bitcoin is the only coin worth touching (that article expands on that view) And I think that $500k/coin is very possible for Bitcoin this decade. As crazy as that sounds on the surface Some miners will do well, but the underlying asset (spot Bitcoin) best, imo”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-10-07); 2029-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
$100k is just another stop on the way to $1M, which is a stop on the way to $10M.
“$100,000 per #Bitcoin is great and all, but do you realize how small $2.1T is? That ain't the end of the line for this train $100k is just another stop on the way to $1M... which is just another stop on the way to $10M.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-09-19); 2029-09-19 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
Bitcoin's conservative full-potential valuation is $10M/Bitcoin in today's dollars over 'coming decades' (assuming BTC captures ~25% of global asset value, up from ~0.05%); his framework implies a maximum potential market cap around $200T (~$10M/BTC) and ~$1M/BTC at ~$20T captured.
“My conservative estimates suggest an outrageous full potential for Bitcoin's price: $10m/Bitcoin, in today's dollars.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-02-16); 2028-02-16 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
Bitcoin has a 90%+ chance of going to $1m in the next 10 years (a 20x from the ~$50k price at the time). He frames it as the highest-expected-value asset (18x).
“At this point, #Bitcoin has a 90%+ chance of going to $1m in the next 10 years. (20x from here) Nothing else comes close to an expected value of 18x As investors come to understand why the above is true, all will realize they are seriously underweight Bitcoin”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2021-09-13); 2031-09-13 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.