Jeff Walton
Resolved (1)
- ✗
The four-year cycle is probably broken; we haven't experienced a euphoric bull run yet, implying one is still to come.
“So I think that the four-year cycle is probably broken and you've got a lot of people that have been selling because of four-year cycle, this is the top. But we really haven't experienced a euphoric bull run.”
No euphoric bull run came: from $92,036 BTC only reached $97,964 then crashed to $58,161 — the four-year-cycle-top sellers were vindicated.
Open (1)
- ⏳
Expects roughly a 30% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Bitcoin going forward, derived from institutional structure and global monetary dynamics.
“I've heard you say you think a 30% CAGR is reasonable. How do you get there? Yeah, we get there from really several different things. It's institutional structure. It's the dynamics of capital globally. It's the global d”
Forward-looking long-horizon CAGR expectation with no specific near-term deadline; cannot be resolved against current ground truth (BTC ~$63,556 on 2026-06-20). Treated as a long-range directional growth call.