Jeff Ross
Resolved (36)
- ✓
Bitcoin has one more leg lower before the cycle bottom is officially in; would not be surprised by a new low for this cycle.
“I just kind of think it has one more leg lower before it's officially the bottom.”
One more leg lower materialized — from $77,098 BTC fell to a new cycle low of $58,000 (now $58,161).
- ✓
Bitcoin will dip into the 50,000s (sub-60K) one more time for a new cycle low.
“To answer your second question first, I said hey to the 58k gang. I think we could have one more time where we dip down into the 50,000s.”
BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-04-17..2026-07-06], reaching the $59,000 downside target.
- ✗
Bitcoin is at or near a bottom at these (late-December 2025) levels.
“Although I think it's close to a bottom. I think it's at or near a bottom at these levels. I think 2026 is looking good. And I think that's because the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will finally basically start taking effect. I think the accounting rules that are going to be in place starting in 2026 are going to start taking an effect. And I think people shouldn't underestimate how strong that impact will be.”
Not a bottom — from $88,557 BTC fell to $58,000 low and sits at $58,161, far below the claimed bottom.
- ✗
Jeff Ross expects Bitcoin's best price performance is still ahead, with latecomers eventually piling back in several hundred thousand dollars higher, and 2026 to be the exciting year.
“I still think our best days are ahead of us... I think a lot of people are going to bail in December and think it's over. And then it's going to get fun after that. And they're going to miss it. And they're going to be piling back in several hundred thousand dollars higher. So very personally, I'm very optimistic for what's coming in 2026.”
Opposite happened: from $107,586 BTC topped at $116,410 then crashed to $58,161 by deadline — no 'several hundred thousand higher,' 2026 was a collapse.
- ✗
The Bitcoin cycle extends into the first half of 2026, with new all-time highs coming around Q2 2026.
“What it’s looking to me more like is the economy is actually going to stretch into the first half of 2026 and we’re actually going to have an extended cycle. So that’s based on the forward metrics I look at. I think that’s what’s going to happen. And this, so we’re probably going to be talking about all-time highs somewhere in Q2 of 2026 now, which is a surprise to me.”
No new ATH by Q2 2026; BTC drew down to $57,717 (Jul 1 2026) vs the prior $126,296 ATH — cycle high was Oct 2025.
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Near-term: after Bitcoin taps the prior all-time high it shoots higher, reaching $140,000-$160,000 'before people can blink.' Said while BTC was ~$112-113k at recording.
“I think it taps on the door and then it shoots higher. And I think we'll be at one 40 to one 60 before people can blink.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-04-22 horizon; never reached $140,000.
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Very bullish on Bitcoin from ~$83k: max bearishness is in, maybe a couple more weeks of sideways chop, then higher.
“That’s very bullish for M2 monetary supply. And that’s very bullish for Bitcoin. I’m very bullish here for Bitcoin. Yeah. We may see another couple of weeks of sideways chop, but very bullish.”
After chop to $74,421 (Apr 2025) BTC rallied to the $126,296 ATH (Oct 2025), as called from $86,878.
- ✓
Dollar/global-M2 effects will kick in within weeks (a month at most) and propel the 'actual bull market', which should start soon.
“Once the delayed effects of the dollar and global M2 start to pick up again, which I expect, within the next couple of weeks, a month at the most, then suddenly everybody’s going to be talking about what a big deal this is. So, just delayed effects, but it’s coming for sure. And this is going to be a huge propellant for the actual bull market, which should be starting soon.”
Rally relaunched from the $74,421 Apr 7 low to $95,976 by Apr 25 — within his weeks-to-a-month window (deadline 2025-04-30).
- ◐
The real bull market ('banana zone') is still ahead and will be a can't-believe-this-is-happening magnitude move.
“I actually do think that, yeah, I mean, I think like we all say the bull market hasn’t started, it’s going to start and it’s going to be one of these moves again that we’re all like, I can’t even believe this is happening. This is crazy.”
BTC rose ~70% from the ~$74.4k Apr low to $126,296 (Oct 2025) — a strong rally, but not the can't-believe mania blow-off claimed.
- ✓
Bullish directional call at ~$84k: 'I'm very bullish here for Bitcoin' and expected it to 'rip from here,' while flagging a possible sideways/dip to ~$70k (to fill a CME gap) as a buying opportunity before the move up.
“I'm very bullish here for Bitcoin. ... we may see another couple of weeks of sideways chop, but very bullish. ... say, in the coming weeks, Bitcoin chops sideways and dips as low as 70K, which I think is actually possible.”
Bullish call paid off — BTC ripped from $82,699 to $126,296 (+53%) within the window.
- ✗
Re-affirmed his $475,000 Bitcoin price target for 2025, arguing the cycle could peak in late 2025, driven by global liquidity and PMI/manufacturing recovery.
“break down his $475,000 bitcoin price target for 2025 and why he's more bullish than ever”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $475,000.
- ◐
Jeff Ross believes Bitcoin is in a bull market where all dips should be bought.
“I think we're generally in a bull market right now. I do think all dips in general, again, not individual investment advice ever, but I do think we're in the phase where all dips are for buying.”
Rallied from $100,151 to $126,296 (dips buyable for a while), but the bull market broke and price fell to $58,161 — below entry, so 'all dips for buying' ultimately failed.
- ✓
This is not the top — Bitcoin is just getting started in a bull market where all dips are for buying.
“I think we’re generally in a bull market right now. I do think all dips in general, again, not individual investment advice ever, but I do think we’re in the phase where all dips are for buying.”
'Not the top' confirmed: after a buyable $74,421 Apr 2025 dip BTC made a new ATH $126,296 (Oct 2025).
- ✓
Restates his promise: Bitcoin will be at $100k+ in 2025 so Joe wears his 100K hat.
“I’m very bullish. I think any pullbacks are for buying and we’re going to get, and Joe is going to get to wear his a 100K hat.”
BTC fell as low as $74,421 in [2024-12-18..2025-12-31], reaching the $100,000 downside target.
- ◐
Boom-bust cycles persist: leverage builds to a peak and a ~70% crash is very possible at the end of this cycle.
“And I still think we do. I think we’re going to see, it depends what it does, but I still think like a 70 percent crash is very possible with Bitcoin at the end of the cycle.”
Cycle-end bust arrived (~54%, $126,296 → $57,717) but fell short of the ~70% crash he flagged as very possible.
- ✓
Bullish directional call at ~$96k: 'we're definitely not at the top, we're just getting started' — rejecting the idea that Bitcoin near $96k was a cycle top.
“Yeah. So we're definitely not at the top where we're just getting started.”
Not the top — BTC rose ~19% from $106,137 to a new high of $126,296 before rolling over, vindicating 'just getting started.'
- ✓
The bull crab market is over; the next 13-14 months (through roughly late 2025) will be a full bull market with an exponential move higher.
“I think the next 13 to 14 months are just going to be lit and we’re going to start slowly at first. And then I think we’re going to get that exponential move higher as people start getting confidence.”
From $60,631 BTC ran to the $126,296 ATH (Oct 2025), a full bull inside his 13-14 month window.
- ✗
Bitcoin will be at $475k by Halloween 2025.
“I’m breaking all the Cardinal rules. You don’t pick a date and a price, but I’m doing both. I’m saying at Halloween of 2025, we’ll be at 475K.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-10-31 horizon; never reached $475,000.
- ✓
Guarantees Bitcoin reaches $100k in 2025 (Joe gets to wear his 100K hat).
“Joe, I’m going to guarantee that you’re going to wear the hat in 2025.”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2024-10-02..2025-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target.
- ◐
The four-year cycle will roll over after the peak, with Bitcoin falling to ~$75k in 2026 (the $75k level conditioned on his $475k top).
“I think we can get a 75 percent drawdown though. I think if we go up to four, we hit my four 75 K target. I’m going to be telling people, I think it’s going to go down to 75 K in 2026.”
Cycle did roll over ($126,296 Oct 2025 → $57,717 Jul 2026), but the $475k top premise failed and price overshot below the called $75k.
- ✗
Bitcoin will reach $475,000 by Halloween (Oct 31) 2025. Ross explicitly 'broke the cardinal rule' by picking both a date and a price, and noted he had been making this call for about a year.
“this is the, I'm breaking all the Cardinal rules. You don't pick a date and a price, but I'm doing both. I'm saying at Halloween of 2025, we'll be at 475K. ... I've been saying this for like a year though, this is nothing new.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-10-31 horizon; never reached $475,000.
- ✓
Bitcoin's current bull cycle will peak sometime in Q4 2025 before rolling over.
“my guess if i had to guess i think it's going to peak somewhere in the fourth quarter of 2025 before it rolls over again”
Cycle peaked in Q4 2025 (all-time high $126,296 on Oct 6, 2025) then rolled over to $58k — timing call landed exactly.
- ✓
Bitcoin will be well above $100,000 by May 2025, one year out, after another parabolic move higher.
“This is your chance to get on before the rocket takes off because the rocket I believe is going to take off again And I believe we’re going to have another parabolic move higher and I might be wrong But I will be very surprised if one year from today, May of 2025, we’re not well above a hundred thousand dollars per Bitcoin.”
BTC traded as high as $109,358 in [2024-05-15..2025-05-15], reaching the $100,000 target.
- ✓
Bitcoin faces a disappointing cooling-off/consolidation for the next several months that lays the groundwork for the next bull move higher.
“It’s uncanny how similar this cycle is right now to the 2016 cycle. The, I think the ETF hype got people a little too hyped. And so we have this period of cooling that I think is going to disappoint a lot of people for the next several months, but then it’s laying the groundwork for the next bull move higher.”
BTC consolidated ~$49-73k May-Oct 2024 then broke out toward $100k after the Nov election, as called.
- ✓
The next huge Bitcoin bull market will begin right around the November 2024 US election, propelling Bitcoin much higher into 2025.
“I don’t think it’s a coincidence that we see the beginning of the bull, the huge bull markets happen right around election time. And I think that’s going to hold again this time.”
BTC surged from $69,381 (election, Nov 5 2024) to $108,389 by Dec 17 2024 — the bull ignited right at the election.
- ◐
Spot-ETF approval will be a buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news event: a jacked-up run into roughly Q1 2024, then Bitcoin gets hammered back down amid macro stress, and only after that does the bull market start in earnest.
“I think it’s going to be a buy the rumor, sell the news kind of event. So I think it’s going to get, we’re going to have a jacked up run. First, you know, Q1 probably of 2024 if the timing works out […] we get a huge run up based on the ETF. And then this, it looks like the world’s going to collapse, the system’s collapsing and Bitcoin just gets hammered back down again.”
Q1-2024 run to the $73,836 ATH (Mar 14) materialized, but the 'hammered back down' crash never came — only a ~15% dip to ~$62.7k by Jun 2024.
- ✓
Long-term massively bullish on Bitcoin; expects 2024-2025 to be 'really, really exciting' for Bitcoin once again.
“long term, massively bullish, right? I think all of us are, I think we, we think that 24, 25, somewhere in there is going to be really, really exciting for Bitcoin once again.”
From $26,428 BTC ran to $100k (Dec 2024) and the $126,296 ATH (Oct 2025) — 2024-25 was hugely bullish.
- ✗
Bitcoin will finish 2022 at $50,000 (his standing year-end price target of '50,000 and 1 penny').
“I’ve been saying since the beginning of the year, my price target at the end of 2022 was 50,000 and 1 penny and I’m still standing with that, I think it could happen”
BTC's high was only $24,448 through the 2022-12-31 horizon; never reached $50,000.
- ✗
If the deep recession he expects around early 2023 arrives, Bitcoin will probably tank again.
“If we do go into a deep recession again, I think that’s probably coming next year, maybe early 2023, it could tank again and it probably will tank again.”
No 2023 recession; in 2023 BTC rallied from $16,612 to $44,193 (high $45,000, Dec 5) rather than tanking.
- ✗
Risk assets including Bitcoin can keep going higher for now — an impressive rally most people don't believe in, running until about mid-November 2022 (around the midterms), before things get ugly again heading into the first half of 2023.
“While I think we’re on borrowed time for risk assets, and that includes Bitcoin as well for the time being, I think that they can go higher… it would make sense that we kind of have this sort of impressive rally that most people don’t believe heading all the way up until say mid-November, which happens to be right around the midterms or so.”
BTC did not rally; it fell from $23,341 to $15,512 (FTX, Nov 9 2022) by the mid-Nov turn date.
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A recession is basically guaranteed, probably arriving in the first half of 2023, and risk assets — equity markets and Bitcoin — will see a pretty serious drawdown before it's over.
“So I think it comes more quickly like probably the first half of 2023. And risk assets, equities markets, bitcoin, they tend to react very poorly during recessionary type conditions… So I still think we’re going to have a pretty serious drawdown before that’s over.”
No H1-2023 recession/drawdown; within the window (to 2023-06-30) BTC rallied from $16,612 to $30,467.
- ✗
In the strong bear-market rally he expects for risk assets over the following months (before the crash resumes in Q4 2022), Bitcoin rallies from ~$29k to roughly $55-65k — short of a new all-time high — and then collapses again.
“I’ve said it’s possible that it reaches a new all time high by mid May, although I don’t think so. I think it’s going to do similar to what the NASDAQ did in 2008 where it ramped up very high, didn’t quite get to that previous all time high… I could see Bitcoin getting up to 60 K 55 K 65 K, somewhere in that range and then just collapsing from there again.”
BTC's high was only $32,384 through the 2022-09-30 horizon; never reached $55,000.
- ✗
Worst-case bottom for Bitcoin this cycle is $25k plus or minus 10% ($22.5k-$27.5k); any pierce below the ~$21.5k 200-week moving average would be only a brief, transient dip.
“So I’ve been using 25 K plus or minus 10%. So 22 5 to 27 5. It could go lower, right? The 200 week moving average, I think is about 21 5 or so. It could pierce that. It could go down if it does pierce it, I think it’s going to be a dip, a transient thing.”
BTC fell to $15,460 in [2022-05-18..2023-05-18], below the $22,500 floor.
- ✓
Buying Bitcoin below $30k on May 11, 2022 is a fantastic price for anyone with a two-plus-year time horizon — i.e., Bitcoin trades materially above $30k by roughly mid-2024.
“Bitcoin, right now, I’m telling you on May 11th, sub-$30,000 is a very good value if you are a long-term holder… I’m telling you if you have a two plus year time horizon buying 30,000 or sub-30K is a fantastic price.”
Sub-$30k entry ($28,972, May 11 2022) → $66,924 by May 18 2024, more than 2x and well above $30k.
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Bitcoin will capitulate roughly 50% from ~$40k to ~$20k in a fast final drop, bottoming in Q2 2022 (he expected Bitcoin to be the first asset to bottom, around March-May).
“I think we bottom, maybe March, April, May. I think Bitcoin is probably going to be the first to bottom… I think a 50% drop is not unreasonable. I could see from 40 to 20K, just like that within a week, two, three, maybe four weeks at the longest. And to me, that’s the bottom.”
BTC fell as low as $17,567 in [2022-03-23..2022-06-30], reaching the $20,000 downside target.
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The coming ~$20k capitulation low will be the generational bottom — Bitcoin will never trade lower than that price again.
“This is the time to be buying because I think that’s going to be a generational opportunity to buy Bitcoin on the cheap, and it will never be lower than that price again, that’s my take.”
BTC fell to $15,460 in [2022-03-23..2024-03-23], below the $20,000 floor.
Open (10)
- ⏳
After a weak first three quarters, Bitcoin and risk assets will finish 2026 strong, with bullishness reigniting around Q4 / the US midterm elections.
“But I would say by Q4, the fourth quarter, somewhere around the midterm elections here in the U.S., that usually tends to reignite some bullishness. And just based on cyclical patterns, I would be surprised if we didn't have kind of a bullish end to the year after sort of a disappointing half to three quarters of a year leading up to that.”
Q4-2026 strong-finish window (deadline 2026-12-31) not elapsed.
- ⏳
Bitcoin is unlikely to ever trade below $50k again, in 2026 or after.
“So I think it’s unlikely to go below 50K in 2026 or ever again.”
BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $50,000 (through 2026-07-06).
- ⏳
Bitcoin will not go above $700k in 2026, even in a boom scenario.
“In 2026. So even if the economy takes off and liquidity is flush and crushing it, there’s people still calling for a million or 2 million, right? I think that’s not reasonable. I think it won’t go above 700K, but it won’t go below 50k either.”
BTC's high was $97,964, stayed at/below $700,000 (through 2026-07-06).
- ⏳
Bitcoin's average price across 2026 will be about $145,000.
“I think it’s unlikely to go higher than 700 K, but I think the, and I think the average price will be $145,000. The average price based on my stuff would be $101,000. And I think I got it within 1% of that.”
Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2026-01-14); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
If the US economy takes off again or strong news comes from Congress, Bitcoin could quickly go to 150K or 200K.
“asset. I wouldn't get too excited about the price of Bitcoin until you start seeing signs that the U.S. economy is starting to take off again. or if we have some really good news come out of like, say, Congress, I think it could quickly go to 150 or 200K if that happens. Is this an age of abundance or is it like another Great Depression?”
Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-12-22); 2026-09-22 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Flipping from bearish to quite bullish and constructive on Bitcoin for 2026.
“So I've basically, yes, I'm bearish currently. And I flipped to now being instead of bearish for 2026, I'm actually quite bullish and constructive on 2026. with one more caveat, and then I'll stop, is that I think I wouldn't get too excited”
Bullish-2026 window open to year-end; BTC down ~28% to $63,599 so far but undetermined.
- ⏳
Bitcoin goes higher over the next nine to twelve months; its best days are ahead.
“I still think everything I look at says we are going higher in the next nine to 12 months. And so if we do get higher, if we start to see a takeoff in the manufacturing sector and in the US economy as a whole and global liquidity continues to kind of move up into the right, I still think our best days are ahead of us.”
12-month horizon (deadline 2026-10-31) not elapsed; trending fail — from ~$109k BTC fell to $57,717, now $63,599.
- ⏳
The four-year cycle is dead: people who bail in December 2025 expecting a cycle top will miss a continued rally and buy back in several hundred thousand dollars higher.
“And I definitely think the four year cycle is dead and lots of people are going to get fooled by that. I think a lot of people are going to bail in December and think it’s over, and then it’s going to get fun after that and they’re going to miss it, and they’re going to be piling back in several hundred thousand dollars higher.”
2026-year-end window open; trending fail — after Dec 2025 BTC fell from ~$88k to $57,717 rather than rallying hundreds of thousands higher.
- ⏳
If the cycle extends as he expects (economy booming into summer 2026), Bitcoin reaches $550k-$600k by Q3 2026.
“So I’m still looking at forward looking indicators that tell me, looking in well into 2026 now, like summer 2026, I still think the economy looks like it’s going to be booming at that point. And if it’s booming, that tells me that Bitcoin could go, I said 4 75 by Q4 of this year. If we extend it, we could go up to five 50, 600,000. Third quarter of 2026.”
Not reached yet (high $116,410 since 2025-10-22); 2026-09-30 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will shoot from ~$112-113k to $140k-$160k very quickly, with no meaningful pullback for sidelined buyers.
“So with the price at about one 12 to one 13. I think it taps on the door and then it shoots higher. And I think we’ll be at one 40 to one 60 before people can blink. And so people who are sitting on the sideline waiting for it to pull back again, I think they’re out of luck personally.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-07-23); 2026-07-23 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.