Jason Pizzino
Resolved (21)
- ◐
A bounce is expected but a recovery from the current structure breakdown will be harder than the market believes; patience is warranted.
“Bitcoin on track for its lowest weekly close since September 2024, 21 months ago, and the lowest close this bear market, below February. A bounce is expected but I think the market believes a recovery from this structure breakdown is easier than it'll be. Be patient. The time”
Bounce expected and recovery hard: BTC did bounce to $67,264 from $63,303 but then fell to $58,161 — bounce came, recovery indeed faltered as warned, mixed.
- ✗
Once stock markets consolidate in 2026, Bitcoin prices should begin to recover again.
“The stock markets are tumbling pretty hard off the highs; right on time to take Bitcoin to a new low for this cycle. Once the markets have time to consolidate this year, we should see prices begin to recover again.”
Predicted prices begin to recover this year (deadline 2026) after a new cycle low; by deadline BTC fell to $58,000 low and sits at $58,161 — no recovery, made a lower low.
- ✓
Bitcoin looks ready to retest the cycle lows again, as falling volume and low social interest point to further weakness.
“Bitcoin looks to be getting ready to test the lows again like it does every bear market (or 4-year cycle). Falling volume, lack of social interest (search volume), and a structure reminiscent of further weakness.”
Predicted retest of cycle lows from $75,826; BTC fell to $58,000, taking out prior lows and confirming further weakness.
- ✗
Bitcoin may be transitioning from bearish to bullish; watch Q3 2026 for early signs of that shift.
“Bitcoin is 2% from a red month after a weak bear market rally to the 200D MA. Volume is still low on the rallies which indicates sellers still outway the buyers, although both are declining. This is sign the market may be transitioning from bearish to bullish. Look out for Q3. 👌”
Called possible bearish-to-bullish transition, watch Q3 2026; by the 2026-09-30 horizon (already past as_of in Q3 start) BTC fell from $77,548 to $58,161 — continued bearish, no bullish shift.
- ✓
The cycle low for Bitcoin has not been confirmed yet — further downside in price, time, or structure is still needed.
“Bitcoin has taken 12 weeks to recover the losses of the last crash low. Prior recoveries have been 8 weeks and 2 weeks. As I've been saying in the daily YouTube videos, there are signs the tide is turning but no confirmation that the low is in yet. That means, price, time,”
Called for further downside / low not confirmed; BTC fell from $78,559 to $58,000 (now $58,161), so more downside in price and time clearly followed.
- ✓
The Bitcoin cycle bottom has not been confirmed — buying the bottom is premature.
“Every person who says the caught the bitcoin bottom probably have an average price higher than the current price. If you don't understand this, then you're also getting fooled. (Btw- the bottom isn't confirmed either)”
Said the bottom was not confirmed and buying was premature; BTC dropped from $77,651 to $58,000 afterward, confirming buyers there were premature.
- ◐
Bitcoin is about to see another correction on increasing volume, consistent with historical bear market finales, signaling the bear market is nearing its end.
“Bitcoin is repeating the 12-year-old pattern of rallying on low volume to the 200W MA. What followed in all prior bear markets was another correction on INCREASING volume which is a great sign the bear market is coming to an end and beginning it's final transition.”
The predicted 'another correction' materialized (low $58,000), but the 'bear market coming to an end' thesis is unconfirmed — BTC is still at fresh lows ($58,161), no transition out yet.
- ✓
Bitcoin price will go lower because it has not closed above the 50% level ($71,000); every prior cycle has led to further declines from this point.
“Bitcoin rejected again below the 50% level, $71,000. Every cycle Bitcoin closes below this level, price has always gone down more. The low isn't in yet.”
Predicted further declines after rejecting below ~$71k 50% level; BTC fell from $71,910 to $58,000, low clearly not yet in.
- ✓
Bitcoin will eventually produce a convincing relief rally that fools market participants into believing the low is in.
“Bitcoin will eventually have a relief rally that makes people believe the low is in and we all missed it. That's what is meant by "bear markets will do enough to fool the bulls and the bears."”
Anticipated a convincing relief rally that fools people the low is in; BTC rallied from $66,894 to $82,814 (+24%) then collapsed back to $58,000 — exactly that fake-out.
- ◐
Bitcoin needs to reclaim above $81k after April 1 or it heads lower again.
“The Bitcoin bulls need a miracle. That miracle entails >$81k after the 1st of April. Otherwise, we do the dance again.”
His condition (>$81k after April 1) was actually met — high $82,814 — yet BTC still 'did the dance again' and crashed to $58,000, so the bullish implication of the reclaim failed; the dichotomy resolved both ways.
- ✓
Bitcoin's bear-market relief rally targets $79k-$81k.
“Bitcoin bear market rally per the ST forecast. $71k broken, with $74k/$75k as first resistance. The next target is $79k-$81k. All rallies below this level are still treated as counter-trend moves.”
Relief-rally target $79k-$81k was reached and exceeded — high since made was $82,814 (from $72,683).
- ✓
Bitcoin will break above $71k in a 2-5 week bear-market rally.
“Bitcoin is setting up for its best chance at breaking above $71,000 since the collapse 2 weeks ago. It's all part of the bear market rally, which typically lasts 2-5 weeks.”
Broke above $71k within the 2-5 week window — spot was $72,683 by March 4 (made Feb 17), and rally ran to $82,814.
- ✓
Bitcoin will see a short-term rally lasting 2-5 weeks.
“After hitting an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin has plunged over 50%, even falling below $71k which is the bull market halfway point. Institutions/buyers have been stepping in again, which I think will lead to a short-term rally lasting 2-5 weeks”
A short-term rally materialized in the 2-5 week window — from $68,804 (Feb 10) to ~$72,683 by early March, ultimately peaking at $82,814.
- ✓
Unless Bitcoin closes above $98k the bearish base case (more downside) stays in play.
“The last remaining hopium for the bulls is playing out right now. BTC price needs a close above $98k for the relief rally to gain any slithers of strength left in it. Otherwise, our base case of the last 2-3 months remains in play. #Bitcoin”
BTC never closed above $98k (high since was only $91,147) and the bearish base case played out — price fell from $89,464 to $58,000.
- ✓
Closes under $86k-$89k would confirm Bitcoin's macro downtrend continues.
“Bitcoin continues to tumble and is on the cusp of completing the relief rally (a counter trend rally in a macro down trend). Closes under support around $86k-$89k would almost seal the deal on finally invalidating the latest narratives of "5-year" cycles and "business cycles".”
Support at $86k-$89k broke decisively; BTC fell to $58,000 low and sits at $58,161, confirming the macro downtrend continued.
- ✓
Bitcoin is bouncing off $107k and heading for $111k.
“Bitcoin bulls not giving up the fight yet. Nice bounce off $107k, now heading for $111k. Make a wish”
BTC traded as high as $111,629 in [2025-10-30..2026-07-01], reaching the $111,000 target.
- ✗
With BTC ~$115,316, Pizzino said BTC is likely to hit a cycle top in Q4 (Oct/Nov) if history repeats; targets of at least $122,000 in 2025, possibly $144,000, and beyond the mid-$130,000s toward the $160,000s before year-end.
“Beyond the mid $130,000s, we're looking still towards the $160,000s.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $160,000.
- ✓
With BTC ~$87,877 (down ~20% from the Jan 2025 ATH), Pizzino stayed bullish: said BTC still has further upside to new higher highs because no significant breakdowns had occurred; the 'catch' was that a USDT-dominance break above 5.5-5.6% would flip the thesis bearish.
“I still think that we've got further upside for $BTC, to new higher highs because we haven't seen any significant breakdowns.”
Called further upside to new higher highs from $84,625; BTC rose to a new ATH of $126,296 after the call.
- ✗
Pizzino said BTC could hit $136,000 by the start of next year, arguing a right-translated cycle (later peak) is now effectively guaranteed; flagged ~$120,000 as a major psychological resistance zone.
“Bitcoin could hit a price of $136,000 by the start of next year... a right-translated cycle... is now guaranteed for Bitcoin.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2026-01-31 horizon; never reached $136,000.
- ✗
Pizzino told subscribers BTC may hit a cycle top after a ~33% gain from then-current value, with a price target toward $122,000 (150% swing extension), possibly hit by January (with a slower path into March/April 2025).
“Bitcoin may hit a cycle top after a 33% gain from its current value. The Bitcoin price target is looking towards $122,000... the six-figure price target may be hit by January.”
BTC's high was only $109,358 through the 2025-04-30 horizon; never reached $122,000.
- ✓
With BTC near $69k, Pizzino laid out upside TA targets of $78,500 (50% ext), $81,000 (100% ext), then $87,000, $96,000 and $113,600; said BTC getting above ~$78k could spur an altseason.
“$78,500...50% comes in at $78,400. Now the 100% is at $81,000.”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2024-03-29..2026-03-28], reaching the $113,600 target.
Open (10)
- ⏳
Bitcoin is expected to fall toward the $54,000 zone (300-week MA / Feb 2024 low), his conservative downside price target.
“Bitcoin finishing the week weak and potentially closing at its lowest price since September 2024. The next lowest closing price is February 2024 at $54,000 which is also the 300W MA and in our conservative price target zone. Major time frames all closing this week, too.”
BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $54,000 (through 2026-07-01).
- ⏳
Bitcoin is approaching its cycle low and the low has not yet been set.
“Bitcoin is obviously weak atm. However, considering Mictrostrategy and Strategy have been crushed, BTC isn't trading so bad today. I'm not saying the low is in for Bitcoin. But I still think it is yet another sign we are getting closer to the cycle low.”
Made 2026-06-25 with no deadline; only 5 days elapsed, BTC at $58,161 vs $59,704 made — whether the cycle low is being approached/set is still undetermined.
- ⏳
Bitcoin's next price target after breaking the 200-week MA is the 300-week MA around $54,000.
“Bitcoin breaks the 200W Moving Average and is trading below $60,000. Next target is the 300WMA, around $54,000.”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-24); 2027-03-24 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
If the liquidity trend does not reverse, Bitcoin will see no new all-time high in the next cycle, or at very best only a marginal higher high before crashing.
“Since February 2026, liquidity, and interest has been leaving Bitcoin and crypto at a rate not seen before. If this trend does not reverse, I think no new ATH for Bitcoin in the next cycle is still on the cards, or at very best a marginal higher high before crashing, like ETH,”
Ceiling/cycle claim about 'next cycle' no new ATH; that window is long/cycle-scale and has not elapsed — outcome undetermined.
- ⏳
The Bitcoin cycle low is approaching but has not been reached yet; more perma-bull capitulation is still needed.
“I am seeing some Bitcoin bulls beginning to pivot to "just a few more months then we'll be right". I'd say we are getting closer to the cycle low but not there yet. Still need more perma bulls to capitulate.”
Made 2026-06-02, cycle low approaching but not reached; no deadline and the cycle-low window remains open with BTC still falling to $58,161.
- ⏳
Bitcoin's cycle low price zone is between $40,000 and $55,000.
“"Bitcoin will trade under $50k *only* if the 50% level is broken." - 31/12/25 Update: it was broken in February. My low target has been between $30k-$50k, but as we get closer to the cycle low in time, I'm moving more towards $40k-$55k as a low price zone. The charts will”
$40k-$55k low zone never reached — low since is $58,000 (now $58,161, just above the band); the cycle-low window is still open with price approaching but not in the band.
- ⏳
With a monthly close below $71k, Bitcoin's bear market continues at least 6+ more months before a low.
“The $71,000 level is the halfway point of the Bitcoin Bull Market. Every time in history that BTC has closed on a monthly basis under the 50% level (halfway point), the bear market has continued for several more months at least 6+ months before a low is found.”
Claim is 'at least 6+ months before a low' (made Feb 5, window to ~Aug 5); at as_of June 30 (~4.8 months) the bear has indeed continued with no low (now $58,161), but the 6-month window has not elapsed.
- ⏳
Bitcoin's first closing target for the bulls is $108k.
“Bitcoin rallying off $100k, forming a higher low. The first closing target for the bulls is $108k. Otherwise, you know what happens.”
Not reached yet (high $104,050 since 2025-11-13); 2026-08-13 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
With local lows confirmed, Bitcoin's minimum upside target is $113k.
“Bitcoin and Ethereum local lows are confirmed. The hard work is ahead to overbalance the short-term bears. The minimum target is $113k”
Not reached yet (high $107,482 since 2025-11-09); 2026-08-09 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
Pizzino (BTC ~$116,300) said a real altcoin season and a BTC push past the $150,000-$180,000 range needs USDT dominance to break below 3.7%; warned consolidation under $106,000 would look weak.
“we need to get a breakdown of 3.7% to see any sort of real altcoin season and really seeing Bitcoin pump potentially past that $150,000 to $180,000 range.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-08-08); 2027-08-08 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.