James Van Straten
Resolved (12)
- ◐
Bitcoin has likely bottomed against gold and silver based on time symmetry (~400–420 days peak to trough), suggesting BTC has bottomed relative to both metals.
“From peak to trough, the BTC/silver and BTC/Gold ratio has taken around 400-420 days in each cycle. Which would assume btc has bottomed against both metals.”
No BTC/metal-ratio data to confirm; BTC itself made fresh lows (58,000) after the call, falling from 62,645 to 58,161, undermining the 'has bottomed' framing.
- ✗
The cycle bottom is already in and the four-year cycle is over, with Bitcoin set to recover from here.
“The bottom is in, the four year cycle is over. Bitcoin kept itself above the STH cost basis and true market mean.”
Called 'the bottom is in' at 81,438; BTC subsequently fell ~29% to a low of 58,000 (current 58,161), so the bottom was not in.
- ✗
Once Bitcoin clears the 200-day MA, the true market mean, and the STH realized price, new all-time highs will follow shortly after.
“Get above: True market mean ($77.9k), STH RP ($78.7k), and 200DMA ($84.5k). I think we see new highs shortly after. But until then, it's a bearish downtrend.”
BTC never cleared the 200DMA (84.5k) — peaked at 82,814 — and instead of new highs it crashed to 58,161 (current).
- ◐
In mid-March 2026, with BTC in a drawdown after the Oct 10 2025 crash, Van Straten argued the downside was nearly exhausted: he expected Bitcoin to make one more new low within roughly three weeks / be taken lower within the next 30 days, after which the worst would be over (the discussion framed the move thereafter as sideways then upward).
“They have to take Bitcoin lower in the next 30 days, in my opinion. That's it. ... I will give another three, three weeks till we make a new low because there has going to have to be contagion, there's gonna have to be for selling, all of that kind of stuff.”
A new low (64,939) did print by the 2026-04-16 deadline, but his core thesis that 'the worst would be over' failed — BTC kept falling to 58,000 (current 58,161).
- ◐
Bitcoin could keep going higher as more and more people remain sidelined due to fear.
“It's mad to think how fearful the market is. And we could just be fearful. And it's that theory of just climbing the wall of worry. And that's why Bitcoin could just keep going higher as more and more people are sidelined.”
BTC did climb higher to 82,814 after the call but then crashed to 58,161 (current); the hedged 'keep going higher' only held briefly before a large reversal.
- ✓
James Van Straten gives roughly three more weeks (from March 16, 2026) for Bitcoin to make a new cycle low before he considers the bear market bottom confirmed.
“We're now at March 16th. That's over five months now since October 10th. So I still said, I will give another three weeks, three and a bit weeks till we make a new low.”
A new low (64,939 by 2026-04-06) below the 73,934 made-price printed within the ~3-week window as predicted.
- ✓
This cycle's total drawdown from the all-time high will land around 50% to 70%, given institutional adoption.
“So on a full retail cycle with no institutional adoption this cycle, I would have said 70%, give or take. But because we have had institutional adoption this cycle, I would have said maybe 50% to 70% would be fair. And for that, for that drawdown.”
Drawdown from the 126,296 ATH (2025-10-06) to the 58,000 low is ~54.1%, squarely within his 50-70% band.
- ✓
A short squeeze takes Bitcoin to $65k.
“There's your impetus for a short squeeze – $65k”
Predicted short squeeze to $65k from $66,968 — BTC was already at/above $65k and rallied to $82,814 within the window, clearly clearing the level.
- ✓
Supply in profit and loss converging puts Bitcoin's bottom around $60k.
“Every bear market bottom in bitcoin has seen supply in profit and loss converge. That would put Bitcoin around $60k.”
BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-02-02..2026-07-01], reaching the $60,000 downside target.
- ✗
Bitcoin will take a first crack at $100k next week.
“Dip getting bought and turning resistance into support. First crack at $100k next week”
BTC never cracked $100k by the 2026-01-23 deadline — high_by_deadline was only 95,830.
- ✗
Negative perp funding and negative Coinbase premium are how Bitcoin pushes through $100k.
“Perps funding is negative Coinbase premium is negative This is how BTC goes through $100k”
Predicted BTC pushes through $100k from $95,384; high since made was only $97,964 — never reached $100k and price collapsed to $58,161.
- ✓
A CME gap at $90k is all but certain to be filled from the weekend move.
“A CME gap at $90k is all but certain to be filled from the weekend move. $87.3k is”
BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-01-07..2026-07-01], reaching the $90,000 downside target.
Open (10)
- ⏳
Bitcoin will see another leg lower between July 1 and July 10 toward the realized price around $53k.
“I anticipate another leg lower in Bitcoin between July 1 and July 10, with a move towards the realized price around 53k. My bias is that Bitcoin will front run the "October bottom", just as it front ran the April 2024 halving.”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-26); 2026-07-10 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
With BTC testing its 200-week moving average (~$62,400) and the realized price around $53,457, a bear-market low could potentially form somewhere in the $50,000 to $54,000 range; if history repeats, bitcoin would likely need to trade below the aggregate realized price before a definitive bear market bottom is established (i.e. BTC may need to plunge ~15% or more from current levels to mark a bottom).
“If large investors are motivated to defend their aggregate cost basis, a bear market low could potentially form somewhere in the $50,000 to $54,000 range. ... If history repeats, bitcoin would likely need to trade below the aggregate realized price before a definitive bear market bottom is established.”
Fresh call (2026-06-23); BTC only fell to $58,000 (~7%), has not reached the predicted $50-54k bottom band, and the bottom is undetermined.
- ⏳
Bitcoin is in a mid-cycle correction and will have a blow-off top next year (2027).
“Mid-cycle correction for Bitcoin, blow off top next year”
Blow-off-top window is 2027, which has not elapsed (as_of 2026-06-30); outcome undetermined.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will front-run the expected 'October bottom', making its cycle low before October as it did before the April 2024 halving.
“I still believe the "October bottom" gets front run, as it did ahead of the 2024 halving.”
Pre-October-2026 cycle-low window (deadline 2026-10-01) is still open; current low 58,000 may or may not prove to be the cycle low.
- ⏳
Bitcoin was the first asset to top this cycle and will be the first to bottom and recover in the next cycle.
“Bitcoin was the first asset to top this cycle. It will be the first to bottom and recover next cycle. Same stuff, different cycle.”
Open-ended cross-cycle claim with no deadline and no next-cycle recovery yet observable; undetermined.
- ⏳
If the 4-year cycle plays out fully, Bitcoin will sweep below the realized price at approximately $54,000.
“If the 4 yr cycle plays out, then bitcoin sweeps below the realized price ($54k). Limit orders are set all the way down from here.”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-06); 2028-12-06 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
If Bitcoin breaches $85,000, it will move quickly to $95,000.
“I believe that if $85k gets breached, the gap to $95k will happen quickly. TMM and STH cost basis remains a key support around $78k.”
Not reached yet (high $78,570 since 2026-05-17); 2027-02-17 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will deliver a 200% return over two years to roughly $210k from a $70k entry.
“IBIT buyers got in at $40k and saw a 200% return in less than two years. Morgan Stanley buyers got in at $70,000, a 200% return in two years is $210,000. Probable.”
Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-09); 2028-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
Tight liquidity and rising yields in 2026 could drive Bitcoin down into the $40k-$50k range.
“I’ve been discussing an idea with @gregory_nico that 2026 could play out similarly to 2020 for Bitcoin. As rate expectations and yields rise, tight liquidity and rising uncertainty could trigger a period of panic, potentially driving BTC down into the $40K-$50k range.”
Band not yet reached (low 58,000 by deadline, never hit $50k) but the 2026 window is still open as of 2026-06-30.
- ⏳
In two years Bitcoin will most likely be north of $150k.
“Saylor knows that in two years Bitcoin will most likely be north of $150k, and these price levels will become unlikely to revisit again. Then the game is over.”
Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-03-11); 2028-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.