James Lavish
Resolved (5)
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Any Bitcoin price near or below $70K will in hindsight prove to be an absolute buying opportunity.
“As the hot ball of money continues to chase anything and everything tech and ai related, Bitcoin continues to fall out of favor. And in the not too distant future, we will look back at any price near or below $70K as an absolute gift.”
BTC fell to $57,718 in [2026-05-28..2026-07-01], below the $70,000 floor.
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Reversing his earlier stance, Lavish admitted the four-year cycle persisted: 'I thought the four-year cycle was dead. I declared it dead last year. I was wrong' — adding BTC started to turn in the four-year cycle once price got over $100K, after BTC hit a new high of $126,000.
“I thought the four-year cycle was dead. I declared it dead last year. I was wrong”
Retrospective claim matches reality: BTC turned over once it passed $100k, hit a $126,296 high, then declined per the four-year cycle.
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Asked whether BTC is still in a four-year cycle, Lavish said the halving cycle no longer drives price and that BTC is now governed by a 6-7 year global liquidity cycle: 'I think the four-year cycle is dead. We are now in a liquidity cycle.'
“I think the four-year cycle is dead. We are now in a liquidity cycle.”
'Four-year cycle is dead' was wrong: BTC topped ~$126k near the classic cycle window then crashed, and Lavish himself recanted on 2026-04-19.
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Bitcoin tracks global liquidity closely, and Lavish expects liquidity to keep expanding into the fall and through the beginning of next year, so he's bullish / not worried on BTC over that horizon.
“gotten ahead of itself here, according to those measures. But, you know, Bitcoin has been following And I think that we're going to continue to expand liquidity here going into the fall and up to the at least the beginning of next year. So I'm not worried.”
Rallied to $126,296 into the fall as hoped, but by the 2026-01-31 deadline BTC had fallen to $75,644, well below the $115,381 entry.
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Bullish on Bitcoin short term; expects global liquidity (to which Bitcoin is closely correlated) to keep expanding into the fall and through at least the beginning of next year, with Bitcoin following it higher.
“I'm actually bullish short term, too... I think that we're going to continue to expand liquidity here going into the fall and up to the at least the beginning of next year. So I'm not worried.”
Short-term bullish thesis: BTC first rose to $126,296 then sold off to $75,644 by the 2026-01-31 deadline, ending far below the $115,381 entry.
Open (2)
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Bitcoin will trade above $1 million in the early 2030s (2032-2033).
“They're going to have to print money at this point. What we are experiencing right now is an information or a knowledge arbitrage. And so people just do not yet understand how Bitcoin is different. Bitcoin is going to trade above a million dollars in early 2030s. 2032, 2033, I would be very surprised if we're not touching million dollar Bitcoin. What a freaking beating it's been, huh?”
Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-02-05); 2033-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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Lavish predicted BTC would trade roughly sideways between $80,000 and $100,000 short-term, then move higher once liquidity expands: 'We'll see liquidity added to the system next year. When that happens, I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin reaches $150,000 or even $180,000' (referring to 2026).
“I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin reaches $150,000 or even $180,000”
Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-12-02); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.