James Check (Checkmate)
Resolved (12)
- ◐
Consistent view that $60k was the price-pain capitulation event and that prices below $70k are deep value territory (i.e. the cycle bottom is around $60k).
“@BITC_minimalist @_checkonchain @SullyMichaelvan For clarity, how is Bitcoin 'higher than I predicted for three months', when my position has been a very consistent view that $60k was the price-pain capitulation event, and prices below $70k are deep value territory? Not sure your characterisation is an accurate read of my”
BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-05-26..2026-07-06] — a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor.
- ✗
Every Bitcoin price below $70k is the 'bottom-fifth' of the market cycle — an 80%+ probability bottom zone to DCA, rather than waiting for a final wick.
“Folks fantasize over buying the final wick of a bear. What they should do, is DCA the bottom fifth of the market cycle. You're buying every time there is an 80%+ chance of it being the bottom. Every Bitcoin price below $70k is/was that 'bottom-fifth' zone. Keep it simple. https://t.co/WxWFwdX9jR”
BTC fell to $57,718 in [2026-04-18..2026-07-06], below the $70,000 floor.
- ✓
Near-term Bitcoin will probably go down further from the ~$63K level as the bear market hammers out a floor, but the bear market has an end and Bitcoin is not dead / not going to zero.
“there and the ingredients for creating that capitulation. It'll take time. It'll probably go down more. It'll be choppy. It'll be painful. You get bear market rallies. They get the hope back in. You'll buy that rally and then it will sell back off again. It's going to be a process. but unless your decision tree is that Bitcoin is dead, this bear market has an end. And we've done a lot of the work.”
Predicted further downside from ~$63K/$69,245 spot; BTC fell further to $58,000 (current $58,161), and is far from zero as he said.
- ✓
We are in the bottom ~20% (last fifth) of the bear-market price action; price will probably go down more and chop while hammering out a floor, but unless Bitcoin is dead this bear market has an end (i.e. eventual recovery follows).
“we're now in that last again that last fifth of the price action ... where you've got to hammer out a floor. You've got to find where that bottom is. It's a process. It sucks. ... It'll probably go down more. It'll be choppy. It'll be painful. ... unless your decision tree is that Bitcoin is dead, this bear market has an end.”
Called more downside and choppy floor-hammering; BTC dropped further from $69,245 to $58,000, matching the near-term directional read.
- ✗
Having proven $110k, that is now the floor; base case is the bulls are in control and the market wants to go higher toward $150k, not down to $95k.
“But that's not the base case because we're at 125 and it feels like we want 150 and we're coming off a really really nice stable base you can kind of start lifting some of your targets and saying well because we've proven 110 that's the floor where where do we go from here”
BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-10-08..2026-07-06], below the $110,000 floor.
- ✗
Euphoric / 'stupid' top-of-cycle MVRV levels don't get hit until Bitcoin reaches roughly the $160-180k range, implying the cycle still has room to run there.
“We're still within the bell curve of normal Bitcoin bull market environments. Once we start getting to the right tail where things get a little bit stupid, you've really got to get up into the 160, 180k type range before those kind of levels get hit.”
BTC never approached the implied $160-180k room-to-run; it topped at $126,296 and rolled into a bear market down to $58,000.
- ✓
Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025 is 'very improbable' due to a lack of buying volume (though not impossible).
“'$200,000 in six months is a big move — that's a big move' ... 'Could it happen? Absolutely. Is it likely to happen? Very improbable.' ... 'How on earth can we be going up when there is no volume?'”
Called $200K by end-2025 very improbable; high by the 2025-12-31 deadline was $126,296, never reaching $200K.
- ✗
James Check argues that on-chain cost-basis data (55% of dollars invested have a cost basis above 90k) has built a very stable floor at $90k; he doesn't want to see the market go below 90k and says a break below 90k would signal something is wrong.
“see that if it does go below 90k then i'll probably start saying you know something is wrong um and it's probably going to be a global thing not not a bitcoin thing uh but um in lieu of that if we stay above 90k it's just a huge amount of support there there's a huge amount of demand we're seeing demand come in and like that's that's where we're at don't worry about price suppression look at the fact that there is so much demand that we've built this very very stable floor at”
BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-07-02..2026-07-02], below the $90,000 floor.
- ✗
There is a very stable floor at 90k; he does not want to see price go below 90k and expects it to hold as strong support given 55% of cost basis sits above 90k.
“Don't worry about price suppression, look at the fact that there is so much demand that we've built this very very stable floor at 90k you know 90k six months ago we're at 70k so you know it's just a whole different animal now.”
BTC fell to $57,718 in [2025-07-02..2026-07-02], below the $90,000 floor.
- ✓
A Bitcoin bear market is going to happen; anyone convinced by influencers that there will never be another bear market should unfollow them.
“If you've been convinced by any influencers that we're never gonna have a bear market again, I would unfollow because it's going to happen.”
Bear market did happen: BTC peaked at $126,296 then crashed ~54% to $58,000/current $58,161 after the call.
- ✓
James Check expects the Bitcoin rally to continue from its current level (~$88K) given the coiled spring setup from the consolidation period.
“When these things go, I mean, I would expect it probably keeps going.”
Expected rally to continue from $95,951; BTC kept going meaningfully higher to $126,296.
- ✓
Bitcoin will consolidate or correct in the near term after its 2023 rally.
“I'd be surprised if #Bitcoin didn't consolidate / correct near term. A few months rest would allow investor cost bases to re-acclimate above the True Market Mean Price. Remarkably, the market hasn't given back more than ~20% YTD, which suggests persistent and strong spot demand”
Near-term correction did occur — from $44,084 (2023-12-05) BTC fell to $38,501 by 2024-01-23 before the March rally.
Open (7)
- ⏳
Not worried about Bitcoin breaking down to $45K; views a move to 45K as a Q1 (rare tail) event that is not his base case.
“So I have satisfied myself that I'm not worried about 45K. If it happens, I'll learn from that experience, but it's not something that phases me at this point.”
BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $45,000 (through 2026-07-06).
- ⏳
Base case (about 80% confidence) that the February ~$60K low was the bear market bottom and Bitcoin is now in a bull market, expecting a slow multi-month grind higher.
“So from my perspective, I've been saying there's about an 80% chance that we've actually got the bottom is in. That's my base case. So that is like we're in a bull market. We'll look back at it.”
Feb ~$60k-bottom / bull-market thesis unconfirmed; a lower low $57,718 came 2026-07-01 but BTC recovered to $63,599, no decisive resolution.
- ⏳
Bitcoin's next logical target is $150k (a $3 trillion market cap), having proven the $1T and $2T levels.
“at 2 trillion we proved a trillion in 24 we've proved 2 trillion in 25 so now the question is how many trillions and i mean the most logical thing is let's go to 150 let's see what that looks like because that's 3 trillion but we've got this massive base right 60 of the dollars invested in Bitcoin have said, I want it above 95K.”
Not reached yet (high $124,254 since 2025-10-08); 2028-04-08 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Long-term Bitcoin price target is 10.8 kilos of gold (gold parity); the higher gold goes, the higher Bitcoin's floor.
“my long-term price target for bitcoin has always been the same it's 10.8 kilos of gold which is parity the higher the gold price goes the higher the bitcoin price goes at a relative basis so it's just lifting the floor of where this thing's going”
Long-term gold-parity target (10.8 kg gold, no deadline) is undetermined; window has not elapsed.
- ⏳
Within five years Bitcoin will be 'well and truly' above $200,000.
“Despite near-term skepticism, Check stated he believes Bitcoin will be 'well and truly' above $200,000 within five years, as most of his net worth is invested in BTC.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-07-22); 2030-07-22 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will reach $150K but needs ETF AUM to grow another 50% (from ~$40B to ~$60-70B) before it can get there; Checkmate expects it will happen but it will take time.
“My estimate probably needs the ETFs to, I don't know, add another 50% to their size. They've had 40 billion, probably needs another to 60 or something 70 billion before we can get up to that 150K mark. I think it'll happen, but it's going to take some time.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-03-26); 2030-03-26 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
James Check expects Bitcoin's market cap to eventually move to $10 trillion, requiring institutional/big money participation.
“in order to maintain this kind of level and move to $10 trillion, you need big money. So in my view, who was underneath? It was a sophisticated pool of buyers who were allowing the market to sell to them.”
$10T market cap (~$500k+ BTC) open-ended long-term target; not reached, window open.