InvestAnswers (James)
Resolved (12)
- ✗
A Bitcoin surge is coming in the next four months ("the next 16 weeks"), and if it keeps tracking, price could reach $150k-$160k.
“We are just waiting for the surge. The question is how high if if things continue to track it could be 150 160k and but the cycle is evolving things are changing this is a treasury game this is an ETF game this is not a retail game”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-10-31 horizon; never reached $150,000.
- ✓
Reasonable year-end 2025 Bitcoin target of ~$115,000 if half of one percent of new global M2 flows into BTC (and ~$146,000 if 1% does); explicitly skeptical of $250k ('$250,000, I don't believe in that'). His standing target was ~$119k-$120k since 2023. (BTC was ~$82,100 at the time.)
“So imagine if just half of one percent of the new global M2 goes into Bitcoin – which is reasonable, perhaps – the price would go to $115,000.”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2025-03-31..2025-12-31], reaching the $115,000 target.
- ✓
Only ~10% chance the Bitcoin bull market is already over — it is very unlikely to have topped, so he is not planning for that scenario (BTC ~$83k at the time).
“don't care. So, 19% believe it's over. I believe there's probably a 10% chance the bull market is over, but it's very unlikely. Very unlikely. Therefore, I'm not planning for that. But, but but, but but but this is so important as well.”
Bull market was not over — from ~$83k BTC made a new ATH $126,296 on 2025-10-06 (~+52%).
- ◐
The Bitcoin bull market is nowhere near its conclusion — we are mid-cycle with a long way still to go (BTC ~$104k at the time).
“above 0.75 that's when the market starts to get heated but we're nowhere near that saying that the bull market is nowhere near its conclusion we are middle of the road ladies and gentlemen we have a long way to go”
A new ATH did come (+21% to $126,296) but only ~9 months later then a 54% crash — not the 'long way to go' mid-cycle continuation claimed from $104,850.
- ✗
Upped Bitcoin cycle-peak target to $136,000 from $120,000, with a super-bull target of $154,000; peak expected in Q3/Q4 2025 (Aug-Oct window from historical halving lags). (BTC was $94,882 at the time.)
“I've upped my Bitcoin price target to $136,000 from $120,000 with a super bull target of $154,000…”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $136,000.
- ✗
Bitcoin price target raised to $136,000 for 2025 (up from $120,000), with a stretch "Super Bowl" target of $154,000.
“20125 that are all easy to measure first one is I've upped my Bitcoin price Target to $136,000 from $120,000 with a Super Bowl Target of $154,000 this is actually using our L”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $136,000.
- ✗
We are 165 days away from either an $80,000 Bitcoin or a $130,000 Bitcoin, somewhere in between, by July 16th 2024 (the ~90-days-before-to-90-days-after-halving window). (BTC was $44,802 at the time.)
“We are 165 days away from either an $80,000 Bitcoin or $130,000 Bitcoin, somewhere in between, by July 16th 2024.”
Predicted $80k-$130k band by July 16 2024; high by deadline was only $73,836, never reaching the $80k floor of the range.
- ✓
Based on the average ~175-day post-halving rally, Bitcoin will hit $69,000 before October 8th, 2024 (and likely a lot sooner) on the way to a new all-time high by Oct 8 2024. (BTC was $43,828 at the time.)
“I believe, based on history, Bitcoin will hit $69,000 before October 8th. In fact, I believe it's going to happen a lot before that.”
BTC traded as high as $73,836 in [2023-12-07..2024-10-08], reaching the $69,000 target.
- ✓
Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high by October 8th, 2024, based on the average ~175-day lag from halving (halving April 17 2024 + ~175 days).
“I believe, based on history, Bitcoin will hit $69,000 before October 8th. In fact, I believe it's going to happen a lot before that.”
Predicted BTC hits $69,000 / new ATH before Oct 8 2024; high by deadline was $73,836, clearing $69k within the window.
- ✗
Bitcoin could hit $89,000 sometime in 2025, with a 'max upside' of $142,000 (dependent on on-chain supply, spot ETF approval and adoption). Recorded as the $142k max-upside target.
“believes Bitcoin could hit $89,000 sometime in 2025, though he thinks BTC has a 'max upside' of $142,000”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $142,000.
- ✓
Bitcoin's cup-and-handle pattern is in play with the neckline break done; minimum target $35,000, maximum target $42,000. (BTC was $28,880 at the time.)
“The cup-and-handle pattern is still in play. The neckline break has happened – and it is quite normal to see a retest of the neckline area before the price moves higher.”
BTC traded as high as $49,102 in [2023-04-27..2024-01-27], reaching the $35,000 target.
- ✗
Bitcoin will hit $98,000 during this bull run — putting a 'line in the sand' for it to reach $98k by the end of March or June 2022. (BTC was $47,741 at the time.)
“I always said we'd hit $98,000 Bitcoin during this bull run...the only way is up. I'm just going to put a line in the sand and that's what I see: sometime by the end of March or June.”
BTC's high was only $48,240 through the 2022-06-30 horizon; never reached $98,000.
Open (2)
- ⏳
Bitcoin (then ~$80k) will conservatively rise to his sandbagged 2030 price target, implying a ~40.8% CAGR from $80k (the exact dollar figure is cut off in the auto-caption).
“allocate my Capital my goals are not your goals but here are the kagar to 2030 based on my sandbag prediction price targets so Bitcoin currently 80 grand I believe conservatively it'll get to at least”
2030 target (~40.8% CAGR from $80k); deadline 2030 open, BTC $63,599, path behind schedule but window not elapsed.
- ⏳
Conservative Metcalfe's-Law model has Bitcoin reaching $3.4 million by the year 2030. (BTC was $19,738 at the time.)
“the conservative model has Bitcoin reaching $3.4 million by the year 2030”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2022-09-27); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.