InvestAnswers (James)
Resolved (8)
- ✓
Reasonable year-end 2025 Bitcoin target of ~$115,000 if half of one percent of new global M2 flows into BTC (and ~$146,000 if 1% does); explicitly skeptical of $250k ('$250,000, I don't believe in that'). His standing target was ~$119k-$120k since 2023. (BTC was ~$82,100 at the time.)
“So imagine if just half of one percent of the new global M2 goes into Bitcoin – which is reasonable, perhaps – the price would go to $115,000.”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2025-03-31..2025-12-31], reaching the $115,000 target.
- ✗
Upped Bitcoin cycle-peak target to $136,000 from $120,000, with a super-bull target of $154,000; peak expected in Q3/Q4 2025 (Aug-Oct window from historical halving lags). (BTC was $94,882 at the time.)
“I've upped my Bitcoin price target to $136,000 from $120,000 with a super bull target of $154,000…”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $136,000.
- ✗
We are 165 days away from either an $80,000 Bitcoin or a $130,000 Bitcoin, somewhere in between, by July 16th 2024 (the ~90-days-before-to-90-days-after-halving window). (BTC was $44,802 at the time.)
“We are 165 days away from either an $80,000 Bitcoin or $130,000 Bitcoin, somewhere in between, by July 16th 2024.”
Predicted $80k-$130k band by July 16 2024; high by deadline was only $73,836, never reaching the $80k floor of the range.
- ✓
Based on the average ~175-day post-halving rally, Bitcoin will hit $69,000 before October 8th, 2024 (and likely a lot sooner) on the way to a new all-time high by Oct 8 2024. (BTC was $43,828 at the time.)
“I believe, based on history, Bitcoin will hit $69,000 before October 8th. In fact, I believe it's going to happen a lot before that.”
BTC traded as high as $73,836 in [2023-12-07..2024-10-08], reaching the $69,000 target.
- ✓
Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high by October 8th, 2024, based on the average ~175-day lag from halving (halving April 17 2024 + ~175 days).
“I believe, based on history, Bitcoin will hit $69,000 before October 8th. In fact, I believe it's going to happen a lot before that.”
Predicted BTC hits $69,000 / new ATH before Oct 8 2024; high by deadline was $73,836, clearing $69k within the window.
- ✗
Bitcoin could hit $89,000 sometime in 2025, with a 'max upside' of $142,000 (dependent on on-chain supply, spot ETF approval and adoption). Recorded as the $142k max-upside target.
“believes Bitcoin could hit $89,000 sometime in 2025, though he thinks BTC has a 'max upside' of $142,000”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $142,000.
- ✓
Bitcoin's cup-and-handle pattern is in play with the neckline break done; minimum target $35,000, maximum target $42,000. (BTC was $28,880 at the time.)
“The cup-and-handle pattern is still in play. The neckline break has happened – and it is quite normal to see a retest of the neckline area before the price moves higher.”
BTC traded as high as $49,102 in [2023-04-27..2024-01-27], reaching the $35,000 target.
- ✗
Bitcoin will hit $98,000 during this bull run — putting a 'line in the sand' for it to reach $98k by the end of March or June 2022. (BTC was $47,741 at the time.)
“I always said we'd hit $98,000 Bitcoin during this bull run...the only way is up. I'm just going to put a line in the sand and that's what I see: sometime by the end of March or June.”
BTC's high was only $48,240 through the 2022-06-30 horizon; never reached $98,000.
Open (1)
- ⏳
Conservative Metcalfe's-Law model has Bitcoin reaching $3.4 million by the year 2030. (BTC was $19,738 at the time.)
“the conservative model has Bitcoin reaching $3.4 million by the year 2030”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2022-09-27); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.