Harold Christopher Burger
@@hcburger1 · Building · quant-analyst, power-law-modeler, bitcoin-blogger
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Popular BTC price predictions based on non-diminishing returns will prove too bullish; power-law model with diminishing returns will be more accurate.
“I predicted at the end of 2019 that various popular #btc price predictions would prove to be too bullish because they are based on NON-diminishing returns. Here is an update of that prediction. I have not changed my forecasts, I merely filled in new price data (in red).”
Popular non-diminishing (stock-to-flow) targets proved far too bullish — the 2022 crash to $15,476 and BTC's ~$126,296 2025 ATH tracked the diminishing-returns power law, not the $250k-$1M calls.