Greg Foss
Resolved (2)
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Using his sovereign-CDS 'Fulcrum Index' methodology (G20 fulcrum index over $4.5 trillion divided by 21 million coins), Foss states fair value for Bitcoin is about $215,000 per bitcoin 'today'.
“our calculation of the current G20 fulcrum index is over $4.5 trillion. Regardless, by this methodology, a fair value for bitcoin is about $215,000 per bitcoin today.”
BTC's high was only $47,717 through the 2022-12-28 horizon; never reached $215,000.
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Greg Foss believes Bitcoin is intrinsically worth over $150,000 based on credit default swap valuations of sovereign debt.
“I feel that Bitcoin's worth over $150,000 per Bitcoin. By that very basic calculation using credit default swaps on sovereign nations on the outstanding amount of debt that these sovereign nations hold.”
BTC's high was only $73,836 through the 2024-09-10 horizon; never reached $150,000.
Open (2)
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By the next Bitcoin halving in about four years, Bitcoin's price will be substantially higher than it is now in fiat terms.
“All I try and do is smooth out the short term and look in the longterm. And in, in four years at the next Bitcoin having, I'm very confident, not certain, but very confident that the price will be substantially higher than it is now measured in fiat dollars.”
Substantially higher by the ~2028 halving; window still open (as_of 2026-06-30), currently below at $58,161.
- ⏳
Foss lays out a long-run case that if Bitcoin becomes a global reserve asset (oil/gas priced in BTC within ~10 years) and captures ~5% of the world's ~$900T in total assets, that ~$45T market cap divided by 21M coins implies a price over $2 million per Bitcoin.
“So what percentage of the reserve asset does it make sense that $900 trillion could capture? Would it be 5%...45 trillion divided by 21 million Bitcoin, that's over $2 million a Bitcoin.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2021-07-23); 2031-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.